Prognostic Models for Survival in Patients with Stable Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Two models are mostly used to predict survival in cirrhosis: the Child-Pugh score (CP score) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD score). AIMS: The aim of this study is to evaluate the CP score and the MELD score for short- and long-term prognosis in cirrhosis, as well as CP-creatinine score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score. METHODS: One thousand and forty-seven patients from five referral centers were included: men/women: 620/427, median age: 58 years (IQR 48-66), median follow-up: 33 months (IQR 12-74), CP (A/B/C): 493/357/147, CP score: 7 (IQR 5-9), MELD score: 12 (IQR 9-16). The performance of each score was evaluated by the Cox hazard model in terms of their: discrimination ability (C-index and Somer's D) and calibration (3, 12 months). Internal validation was done with bootstrapping (100 samples). RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-two patients (33.6%) died. All scores were significantly associated with overall mortality, when assessed by univariate Cox analysis. CP-creatinine score performed significantly better than all other scores [bootstrap C-index 0.672, 95% CI 0.642-0.703, bootstrap Somer's D 0.344 (0.285-0.401)], apart from CP score, which showed similar performance. Inclusion in the multivariable Cox model of age together with CP-creatinine score improved the discriminative ability of the model [bootstrap C-index (95% CI) 0.700 (0.661-0.740)]. In terms of calibration, CP-creatinine score was the best for both 3- and 12-month survival in the total population. CONCLUSIONS: CP score and CP-creatinine score have better prognostic value compared to MELD score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with stable cirrhosis.

Associations of acute-phase reactants with metabolic syndrome in middle-aged overweight or obese people.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome, i.e. the clustering of visceral obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hypertension, has become a major public-health challenge worldwide. An acute-phase reactant is one whose level increases by 25% of the standard value during inflammation. Associations of acute-phase reactants with the components of metabolic syndrome among overweight or obese patients has rarely been examined. MATERIAL/METHODS: The CRP, ferritin, fibrinogen, haptoglobin, and ESR levels of 117 consecutive overweight or obese patients were measured. Metabolic syndrome was defined if central obesity was combined with at least two of the following factors: triglyceride level > or = 150 mg/dl or specific treatment for this abnormality, HDL cholesterol < 40 mg/dl in males and < 50 mg/dl in females or specific treatment for this abnormality, systolic/diastolic blood pressures > or = 130/85 mmHg or treatment of previously diagnosed hypertension, and fasting plasma glucose > or = 100 mg/dl or previously diagnosed type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Eighty-two patients were characterized as having metabolic syndrome and 35 as healthy controls. CRP, haptoglobin, and ESR levels increased with increasing number of components of metabolic syndrome. Ferritin and fibrinogen, in contrast, were increased in patients with metabolic syndrome but did not correlate with the number of components. CONCLUSIONS: CRP, haptoglobin, and ESR may add significant information regarding the severity of metabolic syndrome among overweight and obese patients.

An inverse relationship between cumulating components of the metabolic syndrome and serum magnesium levels.

Metabolic syndrome has been defined as the presence of abdominal obesity combined with 2 of the following factors: hypertension, dyslipidemia, and impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes mellitus. Magnesium is an essential cofactor for more than 300 enzymes involved in carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. In this study, we enrolled 117 consecutive overweight and obese patients and we measured serum magnesium levels together with fasting serum glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triacylglycerols. A strong inverse relationship between magnesium levels in serum and the presence of metabolic syndrome was noticed. Moreover, magnesium levels decreased as the number of components of metabolic syndrome increased. Also, there is an inverse relationship between serum magnesium levels and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. We concluded that decreased levels of serum magnesium are associated with increased risk for metabolic syndrome, perhaps by a low-grade inflammation process.