Radiomics approaches to predict PD-L1 and PFS in advanced non-small cell lung patients treated with immunotherapy: a multi-institutional study.

With the increasing use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), there is an urgent need to identify biomarkers to stratify responders and non-responders using programmed death-ligand (PD-L1) expression, and to predict patient-specific outcomes such as progression free survival (PFS). The current study is aimed to determine the feasibility of building imaging-based predictive biomarkers for PD-L1 and PFS through systematically evaluating a combination of several machine learning algorithms with different feature selection methods. A retrospective, multicenter study of 385 advanced NSCLC patients amenable to ICIs was undertaken in two academic centers. Radiomic features extracted from pretreatment CT scans were used to build predictive models for PD-L1 and PFS (short-term vs. long-term survivors). We first employed the LASSO methodology followed by five feature selection methods and seven machine learning approaches to build the predictors. From our analyses, we found several combinations of feature selection methods and machine learning algorithms to achieve a similar performance. Logistic regression with ReliefF feature selection (AUC = 0.64, 0.59 in discovery and validation cohorts) and SVM with Anova F-test feature selection (AUC = 0.64, 0.63 in discovery and validation datasets) were the best-performing models to predict PD-L1 and PFS. This study elucidates the application of suitable feature selection approaches and machine learning algorithms to predict clinical endpoints using radiomics features. Through this study, we identified a subset of algorithms that should be considered in future investigations for building robust and clinically relevant predictive models.

Imaging-Based Biomarkers Predict Programmed Death-Ligand 1 and Survival Outcomes in Advanced NSCLC Treated With Nivolumab and Pembrolizumab: A Multi-Institutional Study.

Background: Although the immune checkpoint inhibitors, nivolumab and pembrolizumab, were found to be promising in patients with advanced NSCLC, some of them either do not respond or have recurrence after an initial response. It is still unclear who will benefit from these therapies, and, hence, there is an unmet clinical need to build robust biomarkers. Methods: Patients with advanced NSCLC (N = 323) who were treated with pembrolizumab or nivolumab were retrospectively identified from two institutions. Radiomics features extracted from baseline pretreatment computed tomography scans along with the clinical variables were used to build the predictive models for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1). To develop the imaging and integrative clinical-imaging predictive models, we used the XGBoost learning algorithm with ReliefF feature selection method and validated them in an independent cohort. The concordance index for OS, PFS, and area under the curve for PD-L1 was used to evaluate model performance. Results: We developed radiomics and the ensemble radiomics-clinical predictive models for OS, PFS, and PD-L1 expression. The concordance indices of the radiomics model were 0.60 and 0.61 for predicting OS and PFS and area under the curve was 0.61 for predicting PD-L1 in the validation cohort, respectively. The combined radiomics-clinical model resulted in higher performance with 0.65, 0.63, and 0.68 to predict OS, PFS, and PD-L1 in the validation cohort, respectively. Conclusions: We found that pretreatment computed tomography imaging along with clinical data can aid as predictive biomarkers for PD-L1 and survival end points. These imaging-driven approaches may prove useful to expand the therapeutic options for nonresponders and improve the selection of patients who would benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors.

A Radiomics-Clinical Model Predicts Overall Survival of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Immunotherapy: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are a great breakthrough in cancer treatments and provide improved long-term survival in a subset of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. However, prognostic and predictive biomarkers of immunotherapy still remain an unmet clinical need. In this work, we aim to leverage imaging data and clinical variables to develop survival risk models among advanced NSCLC patients treated with immunotherapy. METHODS: This retrospective study includes a total of 385 patients from two institutions who were treated with ICIs. Radiomics features extracted from pretreatment CT scans were used to build predictive models. The objectives were to predict overall survival (OS) along with building a classifier for short- and long-term survival groups. We employed the XGBoost learning method to build radiomics and integrated clinical-radiomics predictive models. Feature selection and model building were developed and validated on a multicenter cohort. RESULTS: We developed parsimonious models that were associated with OS and a classifier for short- and long-term survivor groups. The concordance indices (C-index) of the radiomics model were 0.61 and 0.57 to predict OS in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. While the area under the curve (AUC) values of the radiomic models for short- and long-term groups were found to be 0.65 and 0.58 in the discovery and validation cohorts. The accuracy of the combined radiomics-clinical model resulted in 0.63 and 0.62 to predict OS and in 0.77 and 0.62 to classify the survival groups in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated novel radiomics and integrated radiomics-clinical survival models among NSCLC patients treated with ICIs. This model has important translational implications, which can be used to identify a subset of patients who are not likely to benefit from immunotherapy. The developed imaging biomarkers may allow early prediction of low-group survivors, though additional validation of these radiomics models is warranted.