Improvement studies for equitable and evidence-based innovation: an overview of the 'IM-SEEN' model.

BACKGROUND: Health inequalities are ubiquitous, and as countries seek to expand service coverage, they are at risk of exacerbating existing inequalities unless they adopt equity-focused approaches to service delivery. MAIN TEXT: Our team has developed an equity-focused continuous improvement model that reconciles prioritisation of disadvantaged groups with the expansion of service coverage. Our new approach is based on the foundations of routinely collecting sociodemographic data; identifying left-behind groups; engaging with these service users to elicit barriers and potential solutions; and then rigorously testing these solutions with pragmatic, embedded trials. This paper presents the rationale for the model, a holistic overview of how the different elements fit together, and potential applications. Future work will present findings as the model is operationalised in eye-health programmes in Botswana, India, Kenya, and Nepal. CONCLUSION: There is a real paucity of approaches for operationalising equity. By bringing a series of steps together that force programme managers to focus on groups that are being left behind, we present a model that can be used in any service delivery setting to build equity into routine practice.

Evidence for national universal eye health plans.

Many low- and middle-income countries use national eye-care plans to guide efforts to strengthen eye-care services. The World Health Organization recognizes that evidence is essential to inform these plans. We assessed how evidence was incorporated in a sample of 28 national eye-care plans generated since the Universal eye health: a global action plan 2014-2019 was endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 2013. Most countries (26, 93%) cited estimates of the prevalence of blindness and 18 countries (64%) had set targets for the cataract surgical rate in their plan. Other evidence was rarely cited or used to set measurable targets. No country cited evidence from systematic reviews or solution-based research. This limited use of evidence reflects its low availability, but also highlights incomplete use of existing evidence. For example, despite sex-disaggregated data and cataract surgical coverage being available from surveys in 20 countries (71%), these data were reported in the eye health plans of only nine countries (32%). Only three countries established sex-disaggregated indicators and only one country had set a target for cataract surgical coverage for future monitoring. Countries almost universally recognized the need to strengthen health information systems and almost one-third planned to undertake operational or intervention research. Realistic strategies need to be identified and supported to translate these intentions into action. To gain insights into how a country can strengthen its evidence-informed approach to eye-care planning, we reflect on the process underway to develop Kenya's seventh national plan (2019-2023).

De nombreux pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire ont recours à des plans nationaux de santé oculaire pour guider les actions visant à renforcer les services d'ophtalmologie. L'Organisation mondiale de la Santé reconnaît qu'il est essentiel de disposer de données factuelles pour orienter ces plans. Nous avons évalué la manière dont ces données factuelles ont été intégrées à un échantillon de 28 plans nationaux de santé oculaire, élaborés depuis l'adoption par l'Assemblée Mondiale de la Santé, en 2013, du document Santé oculaire universelle: plan d'action mondial 2014­2019. La plupart des pays (26, soit 93%) ont indiqué utiliser des estimations de la prévalence de la cécité et 18 pays (64%) avaient fixé des objectifs relatifs au taux de chirurgie de la cataracte dans leur plan. D'autres types de données factuelles ont rarement été mentionnés ou utilisés pour définir des objectifs mesurables. Aucun pays n'a mentionné de données issues de revues systématiques ou de recherches fondées sur des solutions. Cette utilisation limitée des données factuelles reflète leur faible accessibilité, mais aussi l'usage incomplet des données existantes. Par exemple, bien que des enquêtes menées dans 20 pays (71%) donnent accès à des données ventilées par sexe et au taux de couverture de la chirurgie de la cataracte, seuls neuf pays (32%) ont reporté ces données dans leur plan de santé oculaire. Seuls trois pays ont mis en place des indicateurs ventilés par sexe et un seul a défini un objectif de couverture de la chirurgie de la cataracte pour en suivre l'évolution. La quasi-totalité des pays a reconnu qu'il était nécessaire de renforcer les systèmes d'information sanitaire et près d'un tiers prévoyait d'entreprendre des recherches opérationnelles ou interventionnelles. Il faudra définir et mettre en œuvre des stratégies réalistes pour passer de l'intention à l'action. Pour en savoir plus sur la manière dont un pays peut renforcer son approche d'élaboration de plans de santé oculaire à partir de données factuelles, nous nous intéressons à l'élaboration, en cours, du septième plan national du Kenya (2019­2023).

Muchos países con ingresos entre bajos y medios utilizan planes nacionales de atención oftalmológica para orientar los esfuerzos a fortalecer los servicios de atención oftalmológica. La Organización Mundial de la Salud reconoce que las pruebas son esenciales para informar a estos planes. Se evaluó cómo se incorporaron las pruebas en una muestra de 28 planes nacionales de atención oftalmológica generados desde que la Asamblea Mundial de la Salud aprobó Universal eye health: a global action plan 2014­2019 (Atención oftalmológica universal: un plan de acción mundial para 2014-2019) en 2013. La mayoría de los países (26, 93 %) citaron estimaciones de la prevalencia de la ceguera y 18 países (64 %) habían establecido metas para la tasa quirúrgica de cataratas en sus planes. Rara vez se citaron o utilizaron otras pruebas para establecer objetivos mensurables. Ningún país citó pruebas de revisiones sistemáticas o investigaciones basadas en soluciones. Este uso limitado de las pruebas refleja su baja disponibilidad, pero también destaca el uso incompleto de las pruebas existentes. Por ejemplo, a pesar de que los datos desglosados por sexo y la cobertura quirúrgica de cataratas están disponibles en las encuestas de 20 países (71 %), estos datos solo se reflejaron en los planes de atención oftalmológica de nueve países (32 %). Solo tres países establecieron indicadores desglosados por sexo y solo un país había establecido una meta para la cobertura quirúrgica de cataratas para el seguimiento futuro. Los países reconocieron casi universalmente la necesidad de fortalecer los sistemas de información sanitaria y casi un tercio tenía previsto realizar investigaciones operacionales o de intervención. Es necesario identificar y apoyar estrategias realistas para convertir estas intenciones en acciones. Para comprender mejor cómo un país puede fortalecer su enfoque basado en pruebas para la planificación de la atención oftalmológica, se ha analizado el proceso en curso para desarrollar el séptimo plan nacional en Kenia (2019-2023).

Effectiveness of peer support to increase uptake of retinal examination for diabetic retinopathy: study protocol for the DURE pragmatic cluster randomized clinical trial in Kirinyaga, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: All patients with diabetes are at risk of developing diabetic retinopathy (DR), a progressive and potentially blinding condition. Early treatment of DR prevents visual impairment and blindness. The natural history of DR is that it is asymptomatic until the advanced stages, thus annual retinal examination is recommended for early detection. Previous studies show that the uptake of regular retinal examination among people living with diabetes (PLWD) is low. In the Uptake of Retinal Examination in Diabetes (DURE) study, we will investigate the effectiveness of a complex intervention delivered within diabetes support groups to increase uptake of retinal examination. METHODS: The DURE study will be a two-arm pragmatic cluster randomized clinical trial in Kirinyaga County, Kenya. Diabetes support groups will be randomly assigned to either the intervention or usual care conditions in a 1:1 ratio. The participants will be 700 PLWD who are members of support groups in Kirinyaga. To reduce contamination, the unit of randomization will be the support group. Peer supporters in the intervention arm will receive training to deliver the intervention. The intervention will include monthly group education on DR and individual member reminders to take the eye examination. The effectiveness of this intervention plus usual care will be compared to usual care practices alone. Participant data will be collected at baseline. The primary outcome is the proportion of PLWD who take up the eye examination at six months. Secondary outcomes include the characteristics of participants and peer supporters associated with uptake of eye examination for DR. Intention-to-treat analysis will be used to evaluate the primary and secondary outcomes. DISCUSSION: Eye care programs need evidence of the effectiveness of peer supporter-led health education to improve attendance to retinal screening for the early detection of DR in an African setting. Given that the intervention combines standardization and flexibility, it has the potential to be adopted in other settings and to inform policies to promote DR screening. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry PACTR201707002430195 , registered 25 July 2017, www.pactr.org.

Task shifting for cataract surgery in eastern Africa: productivity and attrition of non-physician cataract surgeons in Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: This project examined the surgical productivity and attrition of non-physician cataract surgeons (NPCSs) in Tanzania, Malawi, and Kenya. METHODS: Baseline (2008-9) data on training, support, and productivity (annual cataract surgery rate) were collected from officially trained NPCSs using mailed questionnaires followed by telephone interviews. Telephone interviews were used to collect follow-up data annually on productivity and semi-annually on attrition. A detailed telephone interview was conducted if a surgeon left his/her post. Data were entered into and analysed using STATA. RESULTS: Among the 135 NPCSs, 129 were enrolled in the study (Kenya 88, Tanzania 38, and Malawi 3) mean age 42 years; average time since completing training 6.6 years. Employment was in District 44%, Regional 24% or mission/ private 32% hospitals. Small incision cataract surgery was practiced by 38% of the NPCSs. The mean cataract surgery rate was 188/year, median 76 (range 0-1700). For 39 (31%) NPCSs their surgical rate was more than 200/year. Approximately 22% in Kenya and 25% in Tanzania had years where the cataract surgical rate was zero. About 11% of the surgeons had no support staff. CONCLUSIONS: High quality training is necessary but not sufficient to result in cataract surgical activity that meets population needs and maintains surgical skill. Needed are supporting institutions and staff, functioning equipment and programs to recruit and transport patients.

Skills of general health workers in primary eye care in Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Primary eye care (PEC) in sub-Saharan Africa usually means the diagnosis, treatment, and referral of eye conditions at the most basic level of the health system by primary health care workers (PHCWs), who receive minimal training in eye care as part of their curricula. We undertook this study with the aim to evaluate basic PEC knowledge and ophthalmologic skills of PHCWs, as well as the factors associated with these in selected districts in Kenya, Malawi, and Tanzania. METHODS: A standardized (26 items) questionnaire was administered to PHCWs in all primary health care (PHC) facilities of 2 districts in each country. Demographic information was collected and an examination aimed to measure competency in 5 key areas (recognition and management of advanced cataract, conjunctivitis, presbyopia, and severe trauma plus demonstrated ability to measure visual acuity) was administered. RESULTS: Three-hundred-forty-three PHCWs were enrolled (100, 107, and 136 in Tanzania, Kenya, and Malawi, respectively). The competency scores of PHCW varied by area, with 55.7%, 61.2%, 31.2%, and 66.1% scoring at the competency level in advanced cataract, conjunctivitis, presbyopia, and trauma, respectively. Only 8.2% could measure visual acuity. Combining all scores, only 9 (2.6%) demonstrated competence in all areas. CONCLUSION: The current skills of health workers in PEC are low, with a large per cent below the basic competency level. There is an urgent need to reconsider the expectations of PEC and the content of training.

A randomised controlled trial to investigate effects of enhanced supervision on primary eye care services at health centres in Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge and skills of primary health care workers (PHCWs) in primary eye care have been demonstrated to be inadequate in several districts of Kenya, Malawi, and Tanzania. We tested whether enhanced supervision, focused on improving practical skills over two years, would raise the scores of these workers on a test of basic knowledge and skills. METHODS: This was a randomised controlled trial. All primary health care (PHC) facilities within two districts of each country were enrolled and randomly assigned by district (Kenya, Malawi) or by health care facility (Tanzania) to receive quarterly skills-based supervision by a district eye coordinator or to continue existing routine supervision. At baseline, a test of basic knowledge and skills in five key areas was administered to PHCWs, and visual acuity (VA) charts and working torches were provided. After two years the test was administered again. Changes in test scores were compared between the intervention (enhanced supervision) and the non-intervention (routine supervision) facilities. RESULTS: All 137 facilities in the six districts were enrolled including 343 PHCWs. At baseline, no facility had a visual acuity chart and 18 (13%) had a working torch; the average total skills scores were 6.04 and 6.38 (maximum of 12) in the non-intervention and the intervention facilities, respectively. After two years, 16 intervention facilities (23.2%) had a visual acuity chart correctly placed and 19 (27.5%) had a working torch, compared to 4 (5.9%) and 6 (8.8%), respectively, in the routine supervision facilities. At the facility level, the change in overall test scores was +1.84 points in the intervention sites compared to +0.42 points in the non-intervention sites (p<0.001). Staff turnover included about 75% of the staff by the end of the study. CONCLUSION: The improvements in the enhanced supervision facilities were very modest and of questionable clinical significance. The low impact of the intervention may be due to the high turnover of PHCWs or high absenteeism. A better understanding of the quality of eye care at PHC facilities and influencing factors are urgently needed before continuing to invest resources in the scale up of this model of task shifting in Africa.

Near vision data and near correction requirements from community eye health programmes in nine countries.

BACKGROUND: Recent estimates of global prevalence of uncorrected presbyopia range from 510 to 826 million. There is a shortage of primary data regarding Near Visual Impairment (NVI) magnitude. METHODS: Near visual acuity (NVA) and NVI data was collected from over 388,000 people aged 35 or over across 9 countries, within Community Eye Health programmes between January 2022 and June 2023. In Kenya (n = 34,328), dioptric power of required near correction was also recorded, and any association with age, gender or level of NVA was assessed via linear regression model. RESULTS: 146,801 of 388,939 people failed initial near vision screening (37.74%, 95% CI 37.59-37.89%), with significantly higher prevalence of NVI in Sub-Saharan Africa than South Asia. Of those with distance acuity 6/12 or better, 27.97% failed (95% CI 27.81-28.13%) with evidence of difference between genders (p < 0.001): 30.77% of women vs. 24.47% of men. The most commonly required dioptric powers of correction were +2.00D, +2.50D and +3.00D, and required power correlated with age and NVA. CONCLUSIONS: NVI remains common among Community Eye Health programme participants aged 35 and over. Data from large scale programmes such as these provide an opportunity to contribute to more accurate epidemiological estimates, and to guide future research, resource planning and intervention, ideally with improved standardisation of testing in the future.

Cataract services for all: Strategies for equitable access from a global modified Delphi process.

Vision loss from cataract is unequally distributed, and there is very little evidence on how to overcome this inequity. This project aimed to engage multiple stakeholder groups to identify and prioritise (1) delivery strategies that improve access to cataract services for under-served groups and (2) population groups to target with these strategies across world regions. We recruited panellists knowledgeable about cataract services from eight world regions to complete a two-round online modified Delphi process. In Round 1, panellists answered open-ended questions about strategies to improve access to screening and surgery for cataract, and which population groups to target with these strategies. In Round 2, panellists ranked the strategies and groups to arrive at the final lists regionally and globally. 183 people completed both rounds (46% women). In total, 22 distinct population groups were identified. At the global level the priority groups for improving access to cataract services were people in rural/remote areas, with low socioeconomic status and low social support. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa were the only regions in which panellists ranked women in the top 5 priority groups. Panellists identified 16 and 19 discreet strategies to improve access to screening and surgical services, respectively. These mostly addressed health system/supply side factors, including policy, human resources, financing and service delivery. We believe these results can serve eye health decision-makers, researchers and funders as a starting point for coordinated action to improve access to cataract services, particularly among population groups who have historically been left behind.

Travel time to cataract surgical services in Kenya, Malawi and Rwanda: demonstrating a standardised indicator of physical access to cataract surgery.

BACKGROUND: Travel time can be used to assess health services accessibility by reflecting the proximity of services to the people they serve. We aimed to demonstrate an indicator of physical access to cataract surgery and identify subnational locations where people were more at risk of not accessing cataract surgery. METHODS: We used an open-access inventory of public health facilities plus key informants in Kenya, Malawi and Rwanda to compile a geocoded inventory of cataract facilities. For each country, gridded estimates of the population aged ≥ 50 years and a travel-time friction surface were combined and a least-cost-path algorithm applied to estimate the shortest travel time between each grid and the nearest cataract facility. We categorised continuous travel time by 1-, 2- and 3 h thresholds and calculated the proportion of the population in each category. RESULTS: At the national level, the proportion of the population aged ≥ 50 years within 2 h travel time to permanent cataract surgical services was 97.2% in Rwanda (n = 10 facilities), 93.5% in Kenya (n = 74 facilities) and 92.0% in Malawi (n = 6 facilities); this reduced to 77.5%, 84.1% and 52.4% within 1 h, respectively. The least densely populated subnational regions had the poorest access to cataract facilities in Malawi (0.0%) and Kenya (1.9%). CONCLUSION: We demonstrated an indicator of access that reflects the distribution of the population at risk of age-related cataract and identifies regions that could benefit from more accessible services. This indicator provides additional demand-side context for eye health planning and supports WHO's goal of advancing integrated people-centred eye care.

International collaboration for the development of clinical guidelines in low and middle-income countries: case study on the development of a national framework and clinical guidelines for diabetic retinopathy in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy is a leading cause of blindness in many countries across the world. Ghana has seen a rise in diabetic retinopathy and is working on various strategies to prevent blindness. Clinical guidelines are seen as a promising strategy for improving quality and reducing cost of care. Little is known about the processes of collaborative guideline development in the African context. METHODS: This case study discusses the process of developing clinical guidelines for diabetic retinopathy in Ghana via a collaboration with the Kenya team that had previously developed guidelines for Kenya. RESULTS: The main lesson learnt was the ability to overcome challenges. The main output achieved was the draft national framework, guidelines and training slides on the guidelines. CONCLUSION: Horizontal international collaboration can aid development of clinical guidelines.

Sociodemographic characteristics of community eye screening participants: protocol for cross-sectional equity analyses in Botswana, India, Kenya, and Nepal.

Background: Attendance rates for eye clinics are low across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and exhibit marked sociodemographic inequalities. We aimed to quantify the association between a range of sociodemographic domains and attendance rates from vision screening in programmes launching in Botswana, India, Kenya and Nepal. Methods: We performed a literature review of international guidance on sociodemographic data collection. Once we had identified 13 core candidate domains (age, gender, place of residence, language, ethnicity/tribe/caste, religion, marital status, parent/guardian status, place of birth, education, occupation, income, wealth) we held workshops with researchers, academics, programme implementers, and programme designers in each country to tailor the domains and response options to the national context, basing our survey development on the USAID Demographic and Health Survey model questionnaire and the RAAB7 eye health survey methodology. The draft surveys were reviewed by health economists and piloted with laypeople before being finalised, translated, and back-translated for use in Botswana, Kenya, India, and Nepal. These surveys will be used to assess the distribution of eye disease among different sociodemographic groups, and to track attendance rates between groups in four major eye screening programmes. We gather data from 3,850 people in each country and use logistic regression to identify the groups that experience the worst access to community-based eye care services in each setting. We will use a secure, password protected android-based app to gather sociodemographic information. These data will be stored using state-of-the art security measures, complying with each country's data management legislation and UK law. Discussion: This low-risk, embedded, pragmatic, observational data collection will enable eye screening programme managers to accurately identify which sociodemographic groups are facing the highest systematic barriers to accessing care at any point in time. This information will be used to inform the development of service improvements to improve equity.

Eye health indicators for universal health coverage: results of a global expert prioritisation process.

INTRODUCTION: In its recent World Report on Vision, the WHO called for an updated approach to monitor eye health as part of universal health coverage (UHC). This project sought to develop a consensus among eye health experts from all world regions to produce a menu of indicators for countries to monitor eye health within UHC. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to create a long-list of indicators aligned to the conceptual framework for monitoring outlined in WHO's World Report on Vision. We recruited a panel of 72 global eye health experts (40% women) to participate in a two-round, online prioritisation exercise. Two-hundred indicators were presented in Round 1 and participants prioritised each on a 4-point Likert scale. The highest-ranked 95 were presented in Round 2 and were (1) scored against four criteria (feasible, actionable, reliable and internationally comparable) and (2) ranked according to their suitability as a 'core' indicator for collection by all countries. The top 30 indicators ranked by these two parameters were then used as the basis for the steering group to develop a final menu. RESULTS: The menu consists of 22 indicators, including 7 core indicators, that represent important concepts in eye health for 2020 and beyond, and are considered feasible, actionable, reliable and internationally comparable. CONCLUSION: We believe this list can inform the development of new national eye health monitoring frameworks, monitor progress on key challenges to eye health and be considered in broader UHC monitoring indices at national and international levels.

The global incidence and diagnosis of fungal keratitis.

Fungal keratitis is a severe corneal infection that often results in blindness and eye loss. The disease is most prevalent in tropical and subtropical climates, and infected individuals are frequently young agricultural workers of low socioeconomic status. Early diagnosis and treatment can preserve vision. Here, we discuss the fungal keratitis diagnostic literature and estimate the global burden through a complete systematic literature review from January, 1946 to July, 2019. An adapted GRADE score was used to evaluate incidence papers-116 studies provided the incidence of fungal keratitis as a proportion of microbial keratitis and 18 provided the incidence in a defined population. We calculated a minimum annual incidence estimate of 1 051 787 cases (736 251-1 367 323), with the highest rates in Asia and Africa. If all culture-negative cases are assumed to be fungal, the annual incidence would be 1 480 916 cases (1 036 641-1 925 191). In three case series, 8-11% of patients had to have the eye removed, which represents an annual loss of 84 143-115 697 eyes. As fungal keratitis probably affects over a million people annually, an inexpensive, simple diagnostic method and affordable treatment are needed in every country.

Utilization of Secondary Eye Care Services in Western Kenya.

Background: Eye care provision is currently insufficient to meet the population's eye health needs in Kenya. Many people remain unnecessarily visually impaired or at risk of becoming so due to treatable or preventable conditions. A lack of access and awareness of services are key barriers, in large part due to their being too few eye care providers in the health system for this unmet need. Methods: A hospital-based, retrospective analysis of patients who attended Kitale eye unit, Trans Nzoia County, Kenya from 1st January 2013 to 31st December 2015. Age and sex standardized hospital attendance rates by residence, age group, and sex were calculated for Trans Nzoia county and each subcounty. The changing trends in attendance rates were estimated by calculating the difference between base year and last year. Incidence rate ratios for attendance for each age-group, sex, and residence were estimated using a multivariable regression model. Results: 20,695 patients from the county were seen in Kitale Eye Unit in 2013, 2014 and 2015. In that period, 8.3% had either uncorrected refractive error, cataracts or glaucoma, the priority VISION2020 diseases, and 61.0% had allergic or other conjunctivitis or normal eyes, which could potentially be managed at primary eye care. During the study period, overall average annual attendance rate increased from 609 to 792 per 100, 000 population, incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-1.35). Attendance rates increased more in females than males (34.7% vs. 25.1%, respectively), IRR 1.07 (1.04-1.10). Attendance rates increased with increasing age, (highest among the elderly compared to the young). We found that in extreme age groups (>75 years and <15years) females were less likely to attend than males and there was reduced utilization from those based furthest from the hospital. Conclusion: Specialist eye services are heavily utilized by people with conditions that could be managed at the primary health care level. Barriers to accessing eye services were distance and gender, especially among the most vulnerable groups (young and the elderly). Integration of primary and secondary eye care services could lower barriers to essential eye care services to the population whilst lowering pressure on the limited specialist services by ensuring more appropriate utilization.

Mortality during 6 years of follow-up in relation to visual impairment and eye disease: results from a population-based cohort study of people aged 50 years and above in Nakuru, Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between (1) visual impairment (VI) and (2) eye disease and 6-year mortality risk within a cohort of elderly Kenyan people. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The baseline of the Nakuru Posterior Segment Eye Disease Study was formed from a population-based survey of 4318 participants aged ≥50 years, enrolled in 2007-2008. Ophthalmic and anthropometric examinations were undertaken on all participants at baseline, and a questionnaire was administered, including medical and ophthalmic history. Participants were retraced in 2013-2014 for a second examination. Vital status was recorded for all participants through information from community members. Cumulative incidence of mortality, and its relationship with baseline VI and types of eye disease was estimated. Inverse probability weighting was used to adjust for non-participation. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Cumulative incidence of mortality in relation to VI level at baseline. RESULTS: Of the baseline sample, 2170 (50%) were re-examined at follow-up and 407 (10%) were known to have died (adjusted risk of 11.9% over 6 years). Compared to those with normal vision (visual acuity (VA) ≥6/12, risk=9.7%), the 6-year mortality risk was higher among people with VI (<6/18 to ≥6/60; risk=28.3%; risk ratio (RR) 1.75, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.40) or severe VI (SVI)/blindness (<6/60; risk=34.9%; RR 1.98, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.80). These associations remained after adjustment for non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors (mortality: RR 1.56, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.15; SVI/blind: RR 1.46, 95% CI 0.80 to 2.68). Mortality risk was also associated with presence of diabetic retinopathy at baseline (RR 3.18, 95% CI 1.98 to 5.09), cataract (RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.66) and presence of both cataract and VI (RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.98). Mortality risk was higher among people with age-related macular degeneration at baseline (with or without VI), compared with those without (RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.22 and RR 1.34, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.81, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Visual acuity was related to 6-year mortality risk in this cohort of elderly Kenyan people, potentially because both VI and mortality are related to ageing and risk factors for NCD.

Incidence of Visually Impairing Cataracts Among Older Adults in Kenya.

Importance: Half of all the cases of blindness worldwide are associated with cataract. Cataract disproportionately affects people living in low- and middle-income countries and persons of African descent. Objective: To estimate the 6-year cumulative incidence of visually impairing cataract in adult participants in the Nakuru Eye Disease Cohort Study in Kenya. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary analysis of the Nakuru Eye Disease Cohort Study was conducted from February 2016 to April 2016. This cohort comprised citizens of Nakuru, Kenya, aged 50 years or older who consented to participate in the initial or baseline survey from January 2007 to November 2008, as well as the follow-up conducted from January 2013 to March 2014. All participants at baseline (n = 4364) and follow-up (n = 2159) underwent ophthalmic examination. Main Outcomes and Measures: Six-year cumulative incidence of visually impairing cataract, risk factors of incidence, population estimates, and required cataract surgical rates to manage incident visually impairing cataract. Results: In total, 4364 individuals (with a mean [SD] age of 63.4 [10.5] years and with 2275 women [52.1%]) had complete eye examinations at baseline, and 2159 participants (with a mean [SD] age of 62.5 [9.3] years and with 1140 men [52.8%]) were followed up 6 years later. The 6-year cumulative incidence of visually significant cataract in either eye was 251.9 per 1000 (95% CI, 228.5-276.8), with an increase with age from 128.9 (95% CI, 107.9-153.2) per 1000 for the group aged 50 to 59 years to 624.5 (95% CI, 493.1-739.9) per 1000 for the group aged 80 years or older. This equated to an annual incidence of visually significant cataract of 45.0 per 1000 people aged 50 years or older. Multivariable analysis showed alcohol consumption (risk ratio [RR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8), diabetes (RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.3), educational level, and increasing age (RR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6-5.5 for those aged ≥80 years) were associated with incident visually impairing cataract. Extrapolations to all people aged 50 years or older in Kenya indicated that 148 280 (95% CI, 134 510-162 950) individuals might develop new visually impairing cataract in either eye (visual acuity <6/18 in the worse-seeing eye) and that 9540 (95% CI, 6610-13 750) might become cataract blind in both eyes (visual acuity <3/60 in better-seeing eye). Conclusions and Relevance: Adults in Kenya appeared to have a high incidence of visually impairing cataract, making cataract a priority for blindness prevention programs in the region; surgical interventions and awareness of these services are also required.