Addressing Ancestry and Sex Bias in Pharmacogenomics.

The association of an individual's genetic makeup with their response to drugs is referred to as pharmacogenomics. By understanding the relationship between genetic variants and drug efficacy or toxicity, we are able to optimize pharmacological therapy according to an individual's genotype. Pharmacogenomics research has historically suffered from bias and underrepresentation of people from certain ancestry groups and of the female sex. These biases can arise from factors such as drugs and indications studied, selection of study participants, and methods used to collect and analyze data. To examine the representation of biogeographical populations in pharmacogenomic data sets, we describe individuals involved in gene-drug response studies from PharmGKB, a leading repository of drug-gene annotations, and showcaseCYP2D6, a gene that metabolizes approximately 25% of all prescribed drugs. We also show how the historical underrepresentation of females in clinical trials has led to significantly more adverse drug reactions in females than in males.

Multi-response Mendelian randomization: Identification of shared and distinct exposures for multimorbidity and multiple related disease outcomes.

The existing framework of Mendelian randomization (MR) infers the causal effect of one or multiple exposures on one single outcome. It is not designed to jointly model multiple outcomes, as would be necessary to detect causes of more than one outcome and would be relevant to model multimorbidity or other related disease outcomes. Here, we introduce multi-response Mendelian randomization (MR2), an MR method specifically designed for multiple outcomes to identify exposures that cause more than one outcome or, conversely, exposures that exert their effect on distinct responses. MR2 uses a sparse Bayesian Gaussian copula regression framework to detect causal effects while estimating the residual correlation between summary-level outcomes, i.e., the correlation that cannot be explained by the exposures, and vice versa. We show both theoretically and in a comprehensive simulation study how unmeasured shared pleiotropy induces residual correlation between outcomes irrespective of sample overlap. We also reveal how non-genetic factors that affect more than one outcome contribute to their correlation. We demonstrate that by accounting for residual correlation, MR2 has higher power to detect shared exposures causing more than one outcome. It also provides more accurate causal effect estimates than existing methods that ignore the dependence between related responses. Finally, we illustrate how MR2 detects shared and distinct causal exposures for five cardiovascular diseases in two applications considering cardiometabolic and lipidomic exposures and uncovers residual correlation between summary-level outcomes reflecting known relationships between cardiovascular diseases.

Using genetic association data to guide drug discovery and development: Review of methods and applications.

Evidence on the validity of drug targets from randomized trials is reliable but typically expensive and slow to obtain. In contrast, evidence from conventional observational epidemiological studies is less reliable because of the potential for bias from confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization is a quasi-experimental approach analogous to a randomized trial that exploits naturally occurring randomization in the transmission of genetic variants. In Mendelian randomization, genetic variants that can be regarded as proxies for an intervention on the proposed drug target are leveraged as instrumental variables to investigate potential effects on biomarkers and disease outcomes in large-scale observational datasets. This approach can be implemented rapidly for a range of drug targets to provide evidence on their effects and thus inform on their priority for further investigation. In this review, we present statistical methods and their applications to showcase the diverse opportunities for applying Mendelian randomization in guiding clinical development efforts, thus enabling interventions to target the right mechanism in the right population group at the right time. These methods can inform investigators on the mechanisms underlying drug effects, their related biomarkers, implications for the timing of interventions, and the population subgroups that stand to gain the most benefit. Most methods can be implemented with publicly available data on summarized genetic associations with traits and diseases, meaning that the only major limitations to their usage are the availability of appropriately powered studies for the exposure and outcome and the existence of a suitable genetic proxy for the proposed intervention.

Robust use of phenotypic heterogeneity at drug target genes for mechanistic insights: Application of cis-multivariable Mendelian randomization to GLP1R gene region.

Phenotypic heterogeneity at genomic loci encoding drug targets can be exploited by multivariable Mendelian randomization to provide insight into the pathways by which pharmacological interventions may affect disease risk. However, statistical inference in such investigations may be poor if overdispersion heterogeneity in measured genetic associations is unaccounted for. In this work, we first develop conditional F statistics for dimension-reduced genetic associations that enable more accurate measurement of phenotypic heterogeneity. We then develop a novel extension for two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomization that accounts for overdispersion heterogeneity in dimension-reduced genetic associations. Our empirical focus is to use genetic variants in the GLP1R gene region to understand the mechanism by which GLP1R agonism affects coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. Colocalization analyses indicate that distinct variants in the GLP1R gene region are associated with body mass index and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses that were corrected for overdispersion heterogeneity suggest that bodyweight lowering rather than T2D liability lowering effects of GLP1R agonism are more likely contributing to reduced CAD risk. Tissue-specific analyses prioritized brain tissue as the most likely to be relevant for CAD risk, of the tissues considered. We hope the multivariable Mendelian randomization approach illustrated here is widely applicable to better understand mechanisms linking drug targets to diseases outcomes, and hence to guide drug development efforts.

Combining evidence from Mendelian randomization and colocalization: Review and comparison of approaches.

Mendelian randomization and colocalization are two statistical approaches that can be applied to summarized data from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to understand relationships between traits and diseases. However, despite similarities in scope, they are different in their objectives, implementation, and interpretation, in part because they were developed to serve different scientific communities. Mendelian randomization assesses whether genetic predictors of an exposure are associated with the outcome and interprets an association as evidence that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome, whereas colocalization assesses whether two traits are affected by the same or distinct causal variants. When considering genetic variants in a single genetic region, both approaches can be performed. While a positive colocalization finding typically implies a non-zero Mendelian randomization estimate, the reverse is not generally true: there are several scenarios which would lead to a non-zero Mendelian randomization estimate but lack evidence for colocalization. These include the existence of distinct but correlated causal variants for the exposure and outcome, which would violate the Mendelian randomization assumptions, and a lack of strong associations with the outcome. As colocalization was developed in the GWAS tradition, typically evidence for colocalization is concluded only when there is strong evidence for associations with both traits. In contrast, a non-zero estimate from Mendelian randomization can be obtained despite only nominally significant genetic associations with the outcome at the locus. In this review, we discuss how the two approaches can provide complementary information on potential therapeutic targets.

Noise-augmented directional clustering of genetic association data identifies distinct mechanisms underlying obesity.

Clustering genetic variants based on their associations with different traits can provide insight into their underlying biological mechanisms. Existing clustering approaches typically group variants based on the similarity of their association estimates for various traits. We present a new procedure for clustering variants based on their proportional associations with different traits, which is more reflective of the underlying mechanisms to which they relate. The method is based on a mixture model approach for directional clustering and includes a noise cluster that provides robustness to outliers. The procedure performs well across a range of simulation scenarios. In an applied setting, clustering genetic variants associated with body mass index generates groups reflective of distinct biological pathways. Mendelian randomization analyses support that the clusters vary in their effect on coronary heart disease, including one cluster that represents elevated body mass index with a favourable metabolic profile and reduced coronary heart disease risk. Analysis of the biological pathways underlying this cluster identifies inflammation as potentially explaining differences in the effects of increased body mass index on coronary heart disease.

LDL-c Lowering, Ischemic Stroke, and Small Vessel Disease Brain Imaging Biomarkers: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of lipid-lowering drug targets on different ischemic stroke subtypes are not fully understood. We aimed to explore the mechanisms by which lipid-lowering drug targets differentially affect the risk of ischemic stroke subtypes and their underlying pathophysiology. METHODS: Using a 2-sample Mendelian randomization approach, we assessed the effects of genetically proxied low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and 3 clinically approved LDL-lowering drugs (HMGCR [3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase], PCSK9 [proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9], and NPC1L1 [Niemann-Pick C1-Like 1]) on stroke subtypes and brain imaging biomarkers associated with small vessel stroke (SVS), including white matter hyperintensity volume and perivascular spaces. RESULTS: In genome-wide Mendelian randomization analyses, lower genetically predicted LDL-c was significantly associated with a reduced risk of any stroke, ischemic stroke, and large artery stroke, supporting previous findings. Significant associations between genetically predicted LDL-c and cardioembolic stroke, SVS, and biomarkers, perivascular space and white matter hyperintensity volume, were not identified in this study. In drug-target Mendelian randomization analysis, genetically proxied reduced LDL-c through NPC1L1 inhibition was associated with lower odds of perivascular space (odds ratio per 1-mg/dL decrease, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.67-0.93]) and with lower odds of SVS (odds ratio, 0.29 [95% CI, 0.10-0.85]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides supporting evidence of a potentially protective effect of LDL-c lowering through NPC1L1 inhibition on perivascular space and SVS risk, highlighting novel therapeutic targets for SVS.

Risk Factors for Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Genome-Wide Association Study and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: The genetic and nongenetic causes of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remain obscure. The present study aimed to uncover the genetic and modifiable risk factors for ICH. METHODS: We meta-analyzed genome-wide association study data from 3 European biobanks, involving 7605 ICH cases and 711 818 noncases, to identify the genomic loci linked to ICH. To uncover the potential causal associations of cardiometabolic and lifestyle factors with ICH, we performed Mendelian randomization analyses using genetic instruments identified in previous genome-wide association studies of the exposures and ICH data from the present genome-wide association study meta-analysis. We performed multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses to examine the independent associations of the identified risk factors with ICH and evaluate potential mediating pathways. RESULTS: We identified 1 ICH risk locus, located at the APOE genomic region. The lead variant in this locus was rs429358 (chr19:45411941), which was associated with an odds ratio of ICH of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.11-1.20; P=6.01×10-11) per C allele. Genetically predicted higher levels of body mass index, visceral adiposity, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, and lifetime smoking index, as well as genetic liability to type 2 diabetes, were associated with higher odds of ICH after multiple testing corrections. Additionally, a genetic increase in waist-to-hip ratio and liability to smoking initiation were consistently associated with ICH, albeit at the nominal significance level (P<0.05). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis showed that the association between body mass index and ICH was attenuated on adjustment for type 2 diabetes and further that type 2 diabetes may be a mediator of the body mass index-ICH relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that the APOE locus contributes to ICH genetic susceptibility in European populations. Excess adiposity, elevated blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and smoking were identified as the chief modifiable cardiometabolic and lifestyle factors for ICH.

Comparison of caffeine consumption behavior with plasma caffeine levels as exposure measures in drug-target Mendelian randomization.

Mendelian randomization is an epidemiological technique that can explore the potential effect of perturbing a pharmacological target. Plasma caffeine levels can be used as a biomarker to measure the pharmacological effects of caffeine. Alternatively, this can be assessed using a behavioral proxy, such as average number of caffeinated drinks consumed per day. Either variable can be used as the exposure in a Mendelian randomization investigation, and to select which genetic variants to use as instrumental variables. Another possibility is to choose variants in gene regions with known biological relevance to caffeine level regulation. These choices affect the causal question that is being addressed by the analysis, and the validity of the analysis assumptions. Further, even when using the same genetic variants, the sign of Mendelian randomization estimates (positive or negative) can change depending on the choice of exposure. Some genetic variants that decrease caffeine metabolism associate with higher levels of plasma caffeine, but lower levels of caffeine consumption, as individuals with these variants require less caffeine consumption for the same physiological effect. We explore Mendelian randomization estimates for the effect of caffeine on body mass index, and discuss implications for variant and exposure choice in drug target Mendelian randomization investigations.

Genetic investigation into the broad health implications of caffeine: evidence from phenome-wide, proteome-wide and metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Caffeine is one of the most utilized drugs in the world, yet its clinical effects are not fully understood. Circulating caffeine levels are influenced by the interplay between consumption behaviour and metabolism. This study aimed to investigate the effects of circulating caffeine levels by considering genetically predicted variation in caffeine metabolism. METHODS: Leveraging genetic variants related to caffeine metabolism that affect its circulating levels, we investigated the clinical effects of plasma caffeine in a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS). We validated novel findings using a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework and explored the potential mechanisms underlying these effects in proteome-wide and metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization. RESULTS: Higher levels of genetically predicted circulating caffeine among caffeine consumers were associated with a lower risk of obesity (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation increase in caffeine = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 0.95-0.98, p = 2.47 × 10-4), osteoarthrosis (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98, P=1.10 × 10-8) and osteoarthritis (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96 to 0.98, P = 1.09 × 10-6). Approximately one third of the protective effect of plasma caffeine on osteoarthritis risk was estimated to be mediated through lower bodyweight. Proteomic and metabolomic perturbations indicated lower chronic inflammation, improved lipid profiles, and altered protein and glycogen metabolism as potential biological mechanisms underlying these effects. CONCLUSIONS: We report novel evidence suggesting that long-term increases in circulating caffeine may reduce bodyweight and the risk of osteoarthrosis and osteoarthritis. We confirm prior genetic evidence of a protective effect of plasma caffeine on risk of overweight and obesity. Further clinical study is warranted to understand the translational relevance of these findings before clinical practice or lifestyle interventions related to caffeine consumption are introduced.

Multiple long-term conditions in people with psoriasis: a latent class and bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Coexisting long-term conditions (LTCs) in psoriasis and their potential causal associations with the disease are not well -established. OBJECTIVES: To determine distinct clusters of LTCs in people with psoriasis and the potential bidirectional causal association between these LTCs and psoriasis. METHODS: Using latent class analysis, cross-sectional data from people with psoriasis from the UK Biobank were analysed to identify distinct psoriasis-related comorbidity profiles. Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSR) was applied to compute the genetic correlation between psoriasis and LTCs. Two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis assessed the potential causal direction using independent genetic variants that reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). RESULTS: Five comorbidity clusters were identified in a population of 10 873 people with psoriasis. LDSR revealed that psoriasis was positively genetically correlated with heart failure [genetic correlation (rg) = 0.23, P = 8.8 × 10-8], depression (rg = 0.12, P = 2.7 × 10-5), coronary artery disease (CAD; rg = 0.15, P = 2 × 10-4) and type 2 diabetes (rg = 0.19, P = 3 × 10-3). Genetic liability to CAD was associated with an increased risk of psoriasis [inverse variance weighted (IVW) odds ratio (ORIVW) 1.159, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.055-1.274; P = 2 × 10-3]. The MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO; ORMR-PRESSO 1.13, 95% CI 1.042-1.228; P = 6 × 10-3) and the MR-robust adjusted profile score (RAPS) (ORMR-RAPS 1.149, 95% CI 1.062-1.242; P = 5 × 10-4) approaches corroborate the IVW findings. The weighted median (WM) generated similar and consistent effect estimates but was not statistically significant (ORWM 1.076, 95% CI 0.949-1.221; P = 0.25). Evidence for a suggestive increased risk was detected for CAD (ORIVW 1.031, 95% CI 1.003-1.059; P = 0.03) and heart failure (ORIVW 1.019, 95% CI 1.005-1.033; P = 9 × 10-3) in those with a genetic liability to psoriasis; however, MR sensitivity analyses did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Five distinct clusters of psoriasis comorbidities were observed with these findings to offer opportunities for an integrated approach to comorbidity prevention and treatment. Coexisting LTCs share with psoriasis common genetic and nongenetic risk factors, and aggressive lifestyle modification in these people is anticipated to have an impact beyond psoriasis risk. Genetically predicted CAD is possibly associated with an increased risk of psoriasis, altering our prior knowledge.

Arterial Stiffness and Diabetes Risk in Framingham Heart Study and UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular damage from large artery stiffness (LAS) in pancreatic, hepatic, and skeletal muscles may affect glucose homeostasis. Our goal was to evaluate the association between LAS and the risk of type 2 diabetes using prospectively collected, carefully phenotyped measurements of LAS as well as Mendelian randomization analyses. METHODS: Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) and brachial and central pulse pressure were measured in 5676 participants of the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) without diabetes. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the association of CF-PWV and pulse pressure with incident diabetes. We subsequently performed 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses evaluating the associations of genetically predicted brachial pulse pressure with type 2 diabetes in the UKBB (United Kingdom Biobank). RESULTS: In FHS, individuals with higher CF-PWV were older, more often male, and had higher body mass index and mean arterial pressure compared to those with lower CF-PWV. After a median follow-up of 7 years, CF-PWV and central pulse pressure were associated with an increased risk of new-onset diabetes (per SD increase, multivariable-adjusted CF-PWV hazard ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03-1.76]; P=0.030; central pulse pressure multivariable-adjusted CF-PWV hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.08-1.48]; P=0.004). In United Kingdom Biobank, genetically predicted brachial pulse pressure was associated with type 2 diabetes, independent of mean arterial pressure (adjusted odds ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.00-1.35]; P=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Using prospective cohort data coupled with Mendelian randomization analyses, we found evidence supporting that greater LAS is associated with increased risk of developing diabetes. LAS may play an important role in glucose homeostasis and may serve as a useful marker of future diabetes risk.

Relationship Between Ascending Thoracic Aortic Diameter and Blood Pressure: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies identified elevated blood pressure (BP) as a strong risk factor for thoracic aortic dilation, and BP reduction is the primary medical intervention recommended to prevent progression of aortic aneurysms. However, although BP may impact aortic dilation, aortic size may also impact BP. The causal relationship between BP and thoracic aortic size has not been reliably established. METHODS: Genome-wide association studies summary statistics were obtained for BP and ascending thoracic aortic diameter (AscAoD). Causal effects of BP on AscAoD were estimated using 2-sample Mendelian randomization using a range of pleiotropy-robust methods. RESULTS: Genetically predicted increased systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mean arterial pressure all significantly associate with higher AscAoD (systolic BP: ß estimate, 0.0041 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, 0.0008-0.0074]; P=0.02, diastolic BP: ß estimate, 0.0272 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, 0.0224-0.0320]; P<0.001, and mean arterial pressure: ß estimate, 0.0168 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, 0.0130-0.0206]; P<0.001). Genetically predicted pulse pressure, meanwhile, had an inverse association with AscAoD (ß estimate, -0.0155 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, -0.0213 to -0.0096]; P<0.001). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses showed that genetically predicted increased mean arterial pressure and reduced pulse pressure were independently associated with AscAoD. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization demonstrated that genetically predicted AscAoD was inversely associated with pulse pressure (ß estimate, -2.0721 mm Hg/mm [95% CI, -3.1137 to -1.0306]; P<0.001) and systolic BP (ß estimate, -1.2878 mm Hg/mm [95% CI, -2.3533 to -0.2224]; P=0.02), while directly associated with diastolic BP (0.8203 mm Hg/mm [95% CI, 0.2735-1.3672]; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: BP likely contributes causally to ascending thoracic aortic dilation. Increased AscAoD likely contributes to lower systolic BP and pulse pressure, but not diastolic BP, consistent with the hemodynamic consequences of a reduced aortic diameter.

Multi-biobank Mendelian randomization analyses identify opposing pathways in plasma low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol lowering and gallstone disease.

Plasma low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol is positively associated with coronary artery disease risk while biliary cholesterol promotes gallstone formation. Different plasma LDL-cholesterol lowering pathways may have distinct effects on biliary cholesterol and thereby gallstone disease risk. We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study using data from the UK Biobank (30,547 gallstone disease cases/336,742 controls), FinnGen (34,461 cases/301,383 controls) and Biobank Japan (9,305 cases/168,253 controls). We first performed drug-target MR analyses substantiated by colocalization to investigate the effects of plasma LDL-cholesterol lowering therapies on gallstone disease risk. We then performed clustered MR analyses and pathway analyses to identify distinct mechanisms underlying the association of plasma LDL-cholesterol with gallstone disease risk. For a 1-standard deviation reduction in plasma LDL-cholesterol, genetic mimics of statins were associated with lower gallstone disease risk (odds ratio 0.72 [95% confidence interval 0.62, 0.83]), but genetic mimics of PCSK9 inhibitors and targeting apolipoprotein B were associated with higher risk (1.11 [1.03, 1.19] and 1.23 [1.13, 1.35]). The association for statins was supported by colocalization (posterior probability 98.7%). Clustered MR analyses identified variant clusters showing opposing associations of plasma LDL-cholesterol with gallstone disease risk, with some evidence for ancestry-and sex-specific associations. Among variants lowering plasma LDL-cholesterol, those associated with lower gallstone disease risk were mapped to glycosphingolipid biosynthesis pathway, while those associated with higher risk were mapped to pathways relating to plasma lipoprotein assembly, remodelling, and clearance and ATP-binding cassette transporters. This MR study provides genetic evidence that different plasma LDL-cholesterol lowering pathways have opposing effects on gallstone disease risk.

Genetically proxied glucose-lowering drug target perturbation and risk of cancer: a Mendelian randomisation analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Epidemiological studies have generated conflicting findings on the relationship between glucose-lowering medication use and cancer risk. Naturally occurring variation in genes encoding glucose-lowering drug targets can be used to investigate the effect of their pharmacological perturbation on cancer risk. METHODS: We developed genetic instruments for three glucose-lowering drug targets (peroxisome proliferator activated receptor γ [PPARG]; sulfonylurea receptor 1 [ATP binding cassette subfamily C member 8 (ABCC8)]; glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor [GLP1R]) using summary genetic association data from a genome-wide association study of type 2 diabetes in 148,726 cases and 965,732 controls in the Million Veteran Program. Genetic instruments were constructed using cis-acting genome-wide significant (p<5×10-8) SNPs permitted to be in weak linkage disequilibrium (r2<0.20). Summary genetic association estimates for these SNPs were obtained from genome-wide association study (GWAS) consortia for the following cancers: breast (122,977 cases, 105,974 controls); colorectal (58,221 cases, 67,694 controls); prostate (79,148 cases, 61,106 controls); and overall (i.e. site-combined) cancer (27,483 cases, 372,016 controls). Inverse-variance weighted random-effects models adjusting for linkage disequilibrium were employed to estimate causal associations between genetically proxied drug target perturbation and cancer risk. Co-localisation analysis was employed to examine robustness of findings to violations of Mendelian randomisation (MR) assumptions. A Bonferroni correction was employed as a heuristic to define associations from MR analyses as 'strong' and 'weak' evidence. RESULTS: In MR analysis, genetically proxied PPARG perturbation was weakly associated with higher risk of prostate cancer (for PPARG perturbation equivalent to a 1 unit decrease in inverse rank normal transformed HbA1c: OR 1.75 [95% CI 1.07, 2.85], p=0.02). In histological subtype-stratified analyses, genetically proxied PPARG perturbation was weakly associated with lower risk of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (OR 0.57 [95% CI 0.38, 0.85], p=6.45×10-3). In co-localisation analysis, however, there was little evidence of shared causal variants for type 2 diabetes liability and cancer endpoints in the PPARG locus, although these analyses were likely underpowered. There was little evidence to support associations between genetically proxied PPARG perturbation and colorectal or overall cancer risk or between genetically proxied ABCC8 or GLP1R perturbation with risk across cancer endpoints. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our drug target MR analyses did not find consistent evidence to support an association of genetically proxied PPARG, ABCC8 or GLP1R perturbation with breast, colorectal, prostate or overall cancer risk. Further evaluation of these drug targets using alternative molecular epidemiological approaches may help to further corroborate the findings presented in this analysis. DATA AVAILABILITY: Summary genetic association data for select cancer endpoints were obtained from the public domain: breast cancer ( https://bcac.ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/bcacdata/ ); and overall prostate cancer ( http://practical.icr.ac.uk/blog/ ). Summary genetic association data for colorectal cancer can be accessed by contacting GECCO (kafdem at fredhutch.org). Summary genetic association data on advanced prostate cancer can be accessed by contacting PRACTICAL (practical at icr.ac.uk). Summary genetic association data on type 2 diabetes from Vujkovic et al (Nat Genet, 2020) can be accessed through dbGAP under accession number phs001672.v3.p1 (pha004945.1 refers to the European-specific summary statistics). UK Biobank data can be accessed by registering with UK Biobank and completing the registration form in the Access Management System (AMS) ( https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/enable-your-research/apply-for-access ).

Disentangling the effects of traits with shared clustered genetic predictors using multivariable Mendelian randomization.

When genetic variants in a gene cluster are associated with a disease outcome, the causal pathway from the variants to the outcome can be difficult to disentangle. For example, the chemokine receptor gene cluster contains genetic variants associated with various cytokines. Associations between variants in this cluster and stroke risk may be driven by any of these cytokines. Multivariable Mendelian randomization is an extension of standard univariable Mendelian randomization to estimate the direct effects of related exposures with shared genetic predictors. However, when genetic variants are clustered, due to being located in a single genetic region, a Goldilocks dilemma arises: including too many highly-correlated variants in the analysis can lead to ill-conditioning, but pruning variants too aggressively can lead to imprecise estimates or even lack of identification. We propose multivariable methods that use principal component analysis to reduce many correlated genetic variants into a smaller number of orthogonal components that are used as instrumental variables. We show in simulations that these methods result in more precise estimates that are less sensitive to numerical instability due to both strong correlations and small changes in the input data. We apply the methods to demonstrate the most likely causal risk factor for stroke at the chemokine gene cluster is monocyte chemoattractant protein-1.

Anti-Epileptic Drug Target Perturbation and Intracranial Aneurysm Risk: Mendelian Randomization and Colocalization Study.

BACKGROUND: In a genome-wide association study of intracranial aneurysms (IA), enrichment was found between genes associated with IA and genes encoding targets of effective anti-epileptic drugs. Our aim was to assess if this pleiotropy is driven by shared disease mechanisms that could potentially highlight a treatment strategy for IA. METHODS: Using 2-sample inverse-variance weighted Mendelian randomization and genetic colocalization analyses we assessed: (1) if epilepsy liability in general affects IA risk, and (2) whether changes in gene- and protein-expression levels of anti-epileptic drug targets in blood and arterial tissue may causally affect IA risk. RESULTS: We found no overall effect of epilepsy liability on IA. Expression of 21 genes and 13 proteins corresponding to anti-epileptic drug targets supported a causal effect (P<0.05) on IA risk. Of those genes and proteins, genetic variants affecting CNNM2 levels showed strong evidence for colocalization with IA risk (posterior probability>70%). Higher CNNM2 levels in arterial tissue were associated with increased IA risk (odds ratio, 3.02; [95% CI, 2.32-3.94]; P=3.39×10-16). CNNM2 expression was best proxied by rs11191580. The magnitude of the effect of this variant was greater than would be expected if systemic blood pressure was the sole IA-causing mechanism in this locus. CONCLUSIONS: CNNM2 is a driver of the pleiotropy between IA and anti-epileptic drug targets. Administration of the anti-epileptic drugs phenytoin, valproic acid, or carbamazepine may be expected to decrease CNNM2 levels and therefore subsequently decrease IA risk. CNNM2 is therefore an important target to investigate further for its role in the pathogenesis of IA.

Association between genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition and prostate cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the second most prevalent malignancy in men worldwide. Observational studies have linked the use of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) lowering therapies with reduced risk of PrCa, which may potentially be attributable to confounding factors. In this study, we performed a drug target Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to evaluate the association of genetically proxied inhibition of LDL-c-lowering drug targets on risk of PrCa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with LDL-c (P < 5 × 10-8) from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium genome-wide association study (GWAS) (N = 1,320,016) and located in and around the HMGCR, NPC1L1, and PCSK9 genes were used to proxy the therapeutic inhibition of these targets. Summary-level data regarding the risk of total, advanced, and early-onset PrCa were obtained from the PRACTICAL consortium. Validation analyses were performed using genetic instruments from an LDL-c GWAS conducted on male UK Biobank participants of European ancestry (N = 201,678), as well as instruments selected based on liver-derived gene expression and circulation plasma levels of targets. We also investigated whether putative mediators may play a role in findings for traits previously implicated in PrCa risk (i.e., lipoprotein a (Lp(a)), body mass index (BMI), and testosterone). Applying two-sample MR using the inverse-variance weighted approach provided strong evidence supporting an effect of genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 (equivalent to a standard deviation (SD) reduction in LDL-c) on lower risk of total PrCa (odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76 to 0.96, P = 9.15 × 10-3) and early-onset PrCa (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.52 to 0.95, P = 0.023). Genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition provided a similar central effect estimate on PrCa risk, although with a wider 95% CI (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.62 to 1.13, P = 0.244), whereas genetically proxied NPC1L1 inhibition had an effect on higher PrCa risk with a 95% CI that likewise included the null (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 0.87 to 2.04, P = 0.180). Analyses using male-stratified instruments provided consistent results. Secondary MR analyses supported a genetically proxied effect of liver-specific PCSK9 expression (OR = 0.90 per SD reduction in PCSK9 expression, 95% CI = 0.86 to 0.95, P = 5.50 × 10-5) and circulating plasma levels of PCSK9 (OR = 0.93 per SD reduction in PCSK9 protein levels, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.997, P = 0.04) on PrCa risk. Colocalization analyses identified strong evidence (posterior probability (PPA) = 81.3%) of a shared genetic variant (rs553741) between liver-derived PCSK9 expression and PrCa risk, whereas weak evidence was found for HMGCR (PPA = 0.33%) and NPC1L1 expression (PPA = 0.38%). Moreover, genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition was strongly associated with Lp(a) levels (Beta = -0.08, 95% CI = -0.12 to -0.05, P = 1.00 × 10-5), but not BMI or testosterone, indicating a possible role for Lp(a) in the biological mechanism underlying the association between PCSK9 and PrCa. Notably, we emphasise that our estimates are based on a lifelong exposure that makes direct comparisons with trial results challenging. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports a strong association between genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 and a lower risk of total and early-onset PrCa, potentially through an alternative mechanism other than the on-target effect on LDL-c. Further evidence from clinical studies is needed to confirm this finding as well as the putative mediatory role of Lp(a).

Inconsistency in UK Biobank Event Definitions From Different Data Sources and Its Impact on Bias and Generalizability: A Case Study of Venous Thromboembolism.

The UK Biobank study contains several sources of diagnostic data, including hospital inpatient data and self-reported conditions for ~500,000 participants, and primary care data for ~177,000 participants (35%). Epidemiological investigations require a primary disease definition, but whether to combine sources to maximize power or focus on one to ensure a consistent outcome is not clear. The consistency of definitions was investigated for venous thromboembolism (VTE) by looking at overlap when defining cases from hospital in-patient data, primary care reports, and self-reported questionnaires. VTE cases showed little overlap between data sources, with only 6% of reported events for those with primary care data identified by all three of hospital, primary care, and self-report, while 71% appeared only in one source. Deep vein thrombosis only events represented 68% of self-reported and 36% of hospital-reported VTE cases, while pulmonary embolism only events represented 20% of self-reported and 50% of hospital-reported VTE cases. Additionally, different distributions of sociodemographic characteristics were observed; for example, 46% of hospital reported VTE cases were female, compared with 58% of self-reported VTE cases. These results illustrate how seemingly neutral decisions taken to improve data quality can affect the representativeness of a dataset.

Appraising the causal relationship between plasma caffeine levels and neuropsychiatric disorders through Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Caffeine exposure modifies the turnover of monoamine neurotransmitters, which play a role in several neuropsychiatric disorders. We conducted a Mendelian randomization study to investigate whether higher plasma caffeine levels are causally associated with the risk of anorexia nervosa, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia. METHODS: Summary-level data on the neuropsychiatric disorders were obtained from large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of European ancestry participants (n = 72,517 to 807,553) and meta-analyzed with the corresponding data from the FinnGen study (n = 356,077). Summary-level data on plasma caffeine were extracted from a GWAS meta-analysis of 9876 European ancestry individuals. The Mendelian randomization analyses estimated the Wald ratio for each genetic variant and meta-analyzed the variant-specific estimates using multiplicative random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: After correcting for multiple testing, genetically predicted higher plasma caffeine levels were associated with higher odds of anorexia nervosa (odds ratio [OR] = 1.124; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.024-1.238, pFDR = 0.039) and a lower odds of bipolar disorder (OR = 0.905, 95% CI = 0.827-0.929, pFDR = 0.041) and MDD (OR = 0.965, 95% CI = 0.937-0.995, pFDR = 0.039). Instrumented plasma caffeine levels were not associated with schizophrenia (OR = 0.986, 95% CI = 0.929-1.047, pFDR = 0.646). CONCLUSIONS: These Mendelian randomization findings indicate that long-term higher plasma caffeine levels may lower the risk of bipolar disorder and MDD but increase the risk of anorexia nervosa. These results warrant further research to explore whether caffeine consumption, supplementation, or abstinence could render clinically relevant therapeutic or preventative psychiatric effects.