External Validation of Prognostic Models in Critical Care: A Cautionary Tale From COVID-19 Pneumonitis.

OBJECTIVES BACKGROUND: To externally validate clinical prediction models that aim to predict progression to invasive ventilation or death on the ICU in patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonitis. DESIGN: Single-center retrospective external validation study. DATA SOURCES: Routinely collected healthcare data in the ICU electronic patient record. Curated data recorded for each ICU admission for the purposes of the U.K. Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC). SETTING: The ICU at Manchester Royal Infirmary, Manchester, United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Three hundred forty-nine patients admitted to ICU with confirmed COVID-19 Pneumonitis, older than 18 years, from March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2022. Three hundred two met the inclusion criteria for at least one model. Fifty-five of the 349 patients were admitted before the widespread adoption of dexamethasone for the treatment of severe COVID-19 (pre-dexamethasone patients). OUTCOMES: Ability to be externally validated, discriminate, and calibrate. METHODS: Articles meeting the inclusion criteria were identified, and those that gave sufficient details on predictors used and methods to generate predictions were tested in our cohort of patients, which matched the original publications' inclusion/exclusion criteria and endpoint. RESULTS: Thirteen clinical prediction articles were identified. There was insufficient information available to validate models in five of the articles; a further three contained predictors that were not routinely measured in our ICU cohort and were not validated; three had performance that was substantially lower than previously published (range C-statistic = 0.483-0.605 in pre-dexamethasone patients and C = 0.494-0.564 among all patients). One model retained its discriminative ability in our cohort compared with previously published results (C = 0.672 and 0.686), and one retained performance among pre-dexamethasone patients but was poor in all patients (C = 0.793 and 0.596). One model could be calibrated but with poor performance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, albeit from a single center, suggest that the published performance of COVID-19 prediction models may not be replicated when translated to other institutions. In light of this, we would encourage bedside intensivists to reflect on the role of clinical prediction models in their own clinical decision-making.

Anti-thrombotics and their impact on inpatient epistaxis management: a tertiary centre experience.

INTRODUCTION: Epistaxis represents a massive burden upon NHS resources. Despite being an extremely common reason for emergency ENT admissions, there remains significant variation in its management. Although the evidence base is continually growing, there appears to be a lack of guidance towards managing anti-coagulants and anti-platelet medications and identifying patient-specific outcomes in this setting. Epistaxis has long been associated with a multitude of risk factors but none have shown consistent, direct correlation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We aimed to identify if the use of anti-thrombotic medication was associated with a longer length of hospital admission or conferred a higher requirement for nasal packing, re-packing, surgery or re-admission. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 100 consecutive adult patients admitted over a 6-month period. Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS software. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of patients were taking anti-thrombotic medication. The variability of admission INR values in those taking warfarin did not relate with any outcome measure. There was no statistical difference between patients taking anti-thrombotic medication and those who do not, with regards to our primary outcome measures. Re-admission rates within 28 days were found to be 13%, with anti-thrombotic medication use and pre-existing cardiovascular disease recognised as commonly encountered risk factors. Three percent of patients required surgical intervention. Eight percent of patients required re-packing, with a Rapid Rhino chosen in all instances. CONCLUSION: The use of anti-thrombotic medication is not associated with increased morbidity or increased rate of complications. Anti-thrombotic usage and more than one medical co-morbidity increase the risk of re-admission within 28 days.

Intractable chronic otitis media, rhinosinusitis and facial palsy: a case of active granulomatosis with polyangiitis.

Granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) is a rare systemic disease of unknown aetiology, characterised by necrotising granuloma formation and diffuse vasculitis. It typically affects the upper and lower respiratory tract in addition to the kidneys. Without treatment, the 2-year mortality rate exceeds 90%. We describe a presentation of intractable serous otitis media, rhinosinusitis, fever and unilateral facial palsy in an 18-year-old man with learning difficulties, which highlights the need for a high index of suspicion in diagnosing and treating this enigmatic disease.