A Markov Multi-State model of lupus nephritis urine biomarker panel dynamics in children: Predicting changes in disease activity.

BACKGROUND: A urine 'biomarker panel' comprising alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein, ceruloplasmin, transferrin and lipocalin-like-prostaglandin-D synthase performs to an 'excellent' level for lupus nephritis identification in children cross-sectionally. The aim of this study was to assess if this biomarker panel predicts lupus nephritis flare/remission longitudinally. METHODS: The novel urinary biomarker panel was quantified by enzyme linked immunoabsorbant assay in participants of the United Kingdom Juvenile Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (UK JSLE) Cohort Study, the Einstein Lupus Cohort, and the South African Paediatric Lupus Cohort. Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 were also quantified in view of evidence from other longitudinal studies. Serial urine samples were collected during routine care with detailed clinical and demographic data. A Markov Multi-State model of state transitions was fitted, with predictive clinical/biomarker factors assessed by a corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) score (the better the model, the lower the AICc score). RESULTS: The study included 184 longitudinal observations from 80 patients. The homogeneous multi-state Markov model of lupus nephritis activity AICc score was 147.85. Alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein and ceruloplasmin were identified to be the best predictive factors, reducing the AICc score to 139.81 and 141.40 respectively. Ceruloplasmin was associated with the active-to-inactive transition (hazard ratio 0.60 (95% confidence interval [0.39, 0.93])), and alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein with the inactive-to-active transition (hazard ratio 1.49 (95% confidence interval [1.10, 2.02])). Inputting individual alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein/ceruloplasmin values provides 3, 6 and 12 months probabilities of state transition. CONCLUSIONS: Alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein was predictive of active lupus nephritis flare, whereas ceruloplasmin was predictive of remission. The Markov state-space model warrants testing in a prospective clinical trial of lupus nephritis biomarker led monitoring.

B7x/B7-H4 modulates the adaptive immune response and ameliorates renal injury in antibody-mediated nephritis.

Kidney disease is one of the leading causes of death in patients with lupus and other autoimmune diseases affecting the kidney, and is associated with deposition of antibodies as well as infiltration of T lymphocytes and macrophages, which are responsible for initiation and/or exacerbation of inflammation and tissue injury. Current treatment options have relatively limited efficacy; therefore, novel targets need to be explored. The co-inhibitory molecule, B7x, a new member of the B7 family expressed predominantly by non-lymphoid tissues, has been shown to inhibit the proliferation, activation and functional responses of CD4 and CD8 T cells. In this study, we found that B7x was expressed by intrinsic renal cells, and was up-regulated upon stimulation with inflammatory triggers. After passive administration of antibodies against glomerular antigens, B7x(-/-) mice developed severe renal injury accompanied by a robust adaptive immune response and kidney up-regulation of inflammatory mediators, as well as local infiltration of T cells and macrophages. Furthermore, macrophages in the spleen of B7x(-/-) mice were polarized to an inflammatory phenotype. Finally, treatment with B7x-immunoglobulin (Ig) in this nephritis model decreased kidney damage and reduced local inflammation. We propose that B7x can modulate kidney damage in autoimmune diseases including lupus nephritis and anti-glomerular basement membrane disease. Thus, B7x mimetics may be a novel therapeutic option for treatment of immune-mediated kidney disease.