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OBJECTIVES: To elicit and quantify expert opinion concerning the relative merits of two treatments for a rare inflammatory disease: Juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). The formal expression of expert opinion reported in this paper will be used in a Bayesian analysis of a forthcoming randomised controlled trial known as BARJDM (baricitinib for juvenile dermatomyositis). METHODS: A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened, following a previously described methodological template. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the BARJDM trial would achieve clinically inactive disease, off glucocorticoids (GC) within a 12-month period with either methotrexate (standard of care); or baricitinib (a Janus kinase inhibitor, JAKi), with GC schedules identical in both arms of the trial. Experts' views were discussed and refined following presentation and further discussion of summated published data regarding efficacy of methotrexate or JAKi for JDM. RESULTS: Ten UK paediatric rheumatology consultants (including one adolescent paediatric rheumatologist) participated in the elicitation meeting. All had expertise in JDM, leading active National Health Service clinics for this disease. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely probability of clinically inactive disease off GC within 12 months was 0.55 on baricitinib and 0.23 on methotrexate, with a greater degree of uncertainty for baricitinib. CONCLUSION: Experts currently think that baricitinib is superior to MTX for the treatment of JDM, although there is uncertainty around this. BARJDM will therefore integrate randomised trial data with this expert prior opinion to derive a posterior distribution for the relative efficacy of baricitinib compared with MTX.
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BACKGROUND: Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically reported the largest and the most recent Ebola virus outbreaks. Understanding if conflict played a role in these outbreaks may help in identifying key risks factors to improve disease control. METHODS: We used data from a range of publicly available data sources for both Ebola virus cases and conflict events from 2018 to 2021 in Guinea and the DRC. We fitted these data to conditional logistic regression models using the Self-Controlled Case Series methodology to evaluate the magnitude in which conflict increased the risk of reported Ebola virus cases in terms of incidence rate ratio. We re-ran the analysis sub-nationally, by conflict sub-event type and tested any lagged effects. RESULTS: Conflict was significantly associated with an increased risk of reported Ebola virus cases in both the DRC and Guinea in recent outbreaks. The effect was of a similar magnitude at 1.88- and 1.98-times increased risk for the DRC and Guinea, respectively. The greatest effects (often higher than the national values) were found in many conflict prone areas and during protest/riot-related conflict events. Conflict was influential in terms of Ebola virus risk from 1 week following the event and remained important by 10 weeks. CONCLUSION: Extra vigilance is needed following protests and riot-related conflict events in terms of Ebola virus transmission. These events are highly disruptive, in terms of access to transportation and healthcare and are often in urban areas with high population densities. Additional public health messaging around these types of conflict events, relating to the risks and clinical symptoms may be helpful in reducing transmission. Future work should aim to further understand and quantify conflict severity and intensity, to evaluate dose-response relationships in terms of disease risk.
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Ebolavirus , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology , Guinea/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & controlABSTRACT
This paper presents the results of a listening experiment designed to assess annoyance and perceived loudness (PL) for several unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations, with the listener simulated in indoor and outdoor positions. This research investigated (i) how participant responses change depending on UAS operation, (ii) which broadband metrics are most suitable for representing annoyance and PL, (iii) differences in noise level required to result in equal participant responses to different operations, and (iv) which sound quality metrics (SQMs) are significant for UAS noise perception. Results indicate annoyance and PL responses were greatest for landing operations with flyovers being the least annoying or loud. LAeq, LASmax, and loudness (N5) were the strongest predictors in representing annoyance. Offset analysis predicted small differences in annoyance responses between flyovers and other operations, but also indicated that flyovers would require an increase to LASmax of 3.3 to 6.3 dB compared to other operations to achieve equal PL. Loudness was the most significant SQM, with minor contributions from impulsivity for annoyance and PL when outside, and tonality for PL when indoors. These findings contribute to the understanding of UAS noise perception for the development of metrics and assessment methods accounting for the characteristics of UAS operations.
Subject(s)
Aircraft , Noise , Humans , Noise/adverse effects , PerceptionABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Data on safety and efficacy of second-line tuberculosis drugs in pregnant women and their infants are severely limited due to exclusion from clinical trials and expanded access programs. METHODS: Pregnant women starting treatment for multidrug/rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR)-tuberculosis at King Dinuzulu Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017, were included. We conducted a record review to describe maternal treatment and pregnancy outcomes, and a clinical assessment to describe infant outcomes. RESULTS: Of 108 pregnant women treated for MDR/RR-tuberculosis, 88 (81%) were living with human immunodeficiency virus.. Favorable MDR/RR-tuberculosis treatment outcomes were reported in 72 (67%) women. Ninety-nine (91%) of the 109 babies were born alive, but overall, 52 (48%) women had unfavorable pregnancy outcomes. Fifty-eight (54%) women received bedaquiline, and 49 (45%) babies were exposed to bedaquiline in utero. Low birth weight was reported in more babies exposed to bedaquiline compared to babies not exposed (45% vs 26%; P = .034). In multivariate analyses, bedaquiline and levofloxacin, drugs often used in combination, were both independently associated with increased risk of low birth weight. Of the 86 children evaluated at 12 months, 72 (84%) had favorable outcomes; 88% of babies exposed to bedaquiline were thriving and developing normally compared to 82% of the babies not exposed. CONCLUSIONS: MDR/RR-tuberculosis treatment outcomes among pregnant women were comparable to nonpregnant women. Although more babies exposed to bedaquiline were of low birth weight, over 80% had gained weight and were developing normally at 1 year.
Subject(s)
Rifampin , Tuberculosis , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Child , Female , Humans , Infant , Pregnancy , Pregnant Women , South Africa/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/drug therapyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. METHODS: Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. RESULTS: The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.
Subject(s)
Cholera , Epidemics , Africa/epidemiology , Cholera/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Droughts , Humans , Linear ModelsSubject(s)
Emergency Service, Hospital , Tuberculosis , Humans , London , Mass Screening , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: The mRNA vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 demonstrated high efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in phase 3 clinical trials, including among older adults. To inform coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine selection, this systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis assessed the comparative effectiveness of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 in older adults. METHODS: We systematically searched for relevant studies reporting COVID-19 outcomes with mRNA vaccines in older adults aged ≥ 50 years by first cross-checking relevant published SLRs. Based on the cutoff date from a previous similar SLR, we then searched the WHO COVID-19 Research Database for relevant articles published between April 9, 2022, and June 2, 2023. Outcomes of interest were SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and COVID-19-related death following ≥ 2 vaccine doses. Random effects meta-analysis models were used to pool risk ratios (RRs) across studies. Heterogeneity was evaluated using chi-square testing. Evidence certainty was assessed per GRADE framework. RESULTS: Twenty-four non-randomized real-world studies reporting clinical outcomes with mRNA vaccines in individuals aged ≥ 50 years were included in the meta-analysis. Vaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64â0.80]), symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% CI 0.62â0.83]), severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.67 [95% CI 0.57â0.78]), and COVID-19-related hospitalization (RR 0.65 [95% CI 0.53â0.79]) but not COVID-19-related death (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.64â1.00]) compared with BNT162b2. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies for all outcomes (I2 > 75%) except death (I2 = 0%). Multiple subgroup and sensitivity analyses excluding specific studies generally demonstrated consistent results. Certainty of evidence across outcomes was rated as low (type 3) or very low (type 4), reflecting the lack of randomized controlled trial data. CONCLUSION: Meta-analysis of 24 observational studies demonstrated significantly lower risk of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infections and hospitalizations with the mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 vaccine in older adults aged ≥ 50 years.
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BACKGROUND: Survival extrapolation is essential in cost-effectiveness analysis to quantify the lifetime survival benefit associated with a new intervention, due to the restricted duration of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Current approaches of extrapolation often assume that the treatment effect observed in the trial can continue indefinitely, which is unrealistic and may have a huge impact on decisions for resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: We introduce a novel methodology as a possible solution to alleviate the problem of survival extrapolation with heavily censored data from clinical trials. METHOD: The main idea is to mix a flexible model (e.g., Cox semiparametric) to fit as well as possible the observed data and a parametric model encoding assumptions on the expected behavior of underlying long-term survival. The two are "blended" into a single survival curve that is identical with the Cox model over the range of observed times and gradually approaching the parametric model over the extrapolation period based on a weight function. The weight function regulates the way two survival curves are blended, determining how the internal and external sources contribute to the estimated survival over time. RESULTS: A 4-y follow-up RCT of rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide versus fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia is used to illustrate the method. CONCLUSION: Long-term extrapolation from immature trial data may lead to significantly different estimates with various modelling assumptions. The blending approach provides sufficient flexibility, allowing a wide range of plausible scenarios to be considered as well as the inclusion of external information, based, for example, on hard data or expert opinion. Both internal and external validity can be carefully examined. HIGHLIGHTS: Interim analyses of trials with limited follow-up are often subject to high degrees of administrative censoring, which may result in implausible long-term extrapolations using standard approaches.In this article, we present an innovative methodology based on "blending" survival curves to relax the traditional proportional hazard assumption and simultaneously incorporate external information to guide the extrapolation.The blended method provides a simple and powerful framework to allow a careful consideration of a wide range of plausible scenarios, accounting for model fit to the short-term data as well as the plausibility of long-term extrapolations.
Subject(s)
Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B-Cell , Technology Assessment, Biomedical , Humans , Cyclophosphamide/therapeutic use , Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B-Cell/drug therapy , Survival Analysis , Cost-Benefit AnalysisABSTRACT
Advanced health economic analysis techniques currently performed in Microsoft Excel, such as incorporating heterogeneity, time-dependent transitions and a value of information analysis, can be easily transferred to R. Often the outputs of survival analyses (such as Weibull regression models) will estimate the impacts of correlated patient characteristics on patient outcomes, and are utilised directly as inputs for health economic decision models. This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide of how to conduct such analyses with a Markov model developed in R, and offers a comparison with established analyses performed in Microsoft Excel. This is done through the conversion of a previously published Microsoft Excel case study of a hip replacement surgery cost-effectiveness model. We hope that this paper can act as a facilitator in switching decision models from Microsoft Excel to R for complex health economic analyses, providing open-access code and data, suitable for future adaptation.
Subject(s)
Models, Economic , Humans , Cost-Benefit AnalysisABSTRACT
A health economic evaluation (HEE) is a comparative analysis of alternative courses of action in terms of both costs and consequences. A cost-effectiveness analysis is a type of HEE that compares an intervention to one or more alternatives by estimating how much it costs to gain an additional unit of health outcome. Cost-effectiveness analyses are commonly performed using Microsoft (MS) Excel. However, there is current interest in using other software that is better suited to more complex problems, methods, and data, as well as improved reproducibility and transparency. That is, it is increasingly important to be able to repeat an analysis of a particular data set and obtain the same results, and access the analysis and results in a clear and comprehensive openly available form. In this tutorial we provide a step-by-step guide on how to implement a mainstay model of HEE, namely a Markov model, in the statistical programming language R. The adoption of R for the purpose of cost-effectiveness analysis is highly dependent on the ability of the health economic modeller to understand, learn, and apply programming-type skills. R is likely to be less familiar than MS Excel for many modellers and so coding a cost-effectiveness model in R can be a large jump. We describe the technical details from the perspective of a MS Excel user to help bridge the gap between software and reduce the learning curve by providing for the first-time side-by-side comparisons of the Markov model example in MS Excel and R.
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Economics, Medical , Software , Humans , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Reproducibility of Results , Cost-Effectiveness AnalysisABSTRACT
AIMS: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon. CONCLUSION: We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned.
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BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is characterized by numbness, tingling, and shooting/burning pain. This analysis was performed to describe the relationship between numbness, tingling, and shooting/burning pain in patients with CIPN, as reported using the EORTC QLQ-CIPN20 (CIPN20). METHODS: Baseline CIPN20 data were provided for all patients on a prospective trial designed to treat patients with bothersome CIPN. Baseline frequencies for the items on the CIPN20 are primarily described by descriptive statistics and histograms, with correlational analyses between individual items. RESULTS: A majority of the 199 patients accrued to this study reported "quite a bit" to "very much" numbness (57%) or tingling (63%) in the hands compared to "a little" or "not at all" (numbness (43%), tingling (38%)). Fewer patients reported "quite a bit" to "very much" shooting/burning pain in the hands (18%). Numbness and tingling in the hands were highly correlated (r = 0.69), while neither were highly correlated with shooting/burning pain. Similar results were observed in the feet. More severe ratings for tingling and shooting/burning pain were ascribed to the lower extremities, as opposed to the upper extremities. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CIPN, severe sensory neuropathy symptoms (numbness, tingling) commonly exist without severe neuropathic pain symptoms (shooting/burning pain), while the reverse is not common. Symptoms in the feet should be evaluated distinctly from those in the hands as the experience of symptoms is not identical, for individual patients, in upper versus lower extremities.
Subject(s)
Neurologic Examination/instrumentation , Peripheral Nervous System Diseases/chemically induced , Peripheral Nervous System Diseases/diagnosis , Surveys and Questionnaires , Female , Humans , Hypesthesia/chemically induced , Hypesthesia/diagnosis , Male , Middle Aged , Pain/chemically induced , Pain/diagnosis , Paresthesia/chemically induced , Paresthesia/diagnosis , Prospective Studies , Sensation Disorders/chemically induced , Sensation Disorders/diagnosis , Severity of Illness IndexABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: To address the growing prevalence of hearing loss, WHO has identified a compendium of key evidence-based ear and hearing care interventions to be included within countries' universal health coverage packages. To assess the cost-effectiveness of these interventions and their budgetary effect for countries, we aimed to analyse the investment required to scale up services from baseline to recommended levels, and the return to society for every US$1 invested in the compendium. METHODS: We did a modelling study using the proposed set of WHO interventions (summarised under the acronym HEAR: hearing screening and intervention for newborn babies and infants, pre-school and school-age children, older adults, and adults at higher risk of hearing loss; ear disease prevention and management; access to technologies such as hearing aids, cochlear implants, or hearing assistive technologies; and rehabilitation service provision), which span the life course and include screening and management of hearing loss and related ear diseases, costs and benefits for the national population cohorts of 172 countries. The return on investment was analysed for the period between 2020 and 2030 using three scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario, a progress scenario with a scale-up to 50% of recommended coverage, and an ambitious scenario with scale-up to 90% of recommended coverage. Using data for hearing loss burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, a transition model with three states (general population, diagnosed, and those who have died) was developed to model the national populations in countries. For the return-on-investment analysis, the monetary value of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted in addition to productivity gains were compared against the investment required in each scenario. FINDINGS: Scaling up ear and hearing care interventions to 90% requires an overall global investment of US$238·8 billion over 10 years. Over a 10-year period, this investment promises substantial health gains with more than 130 million DALYs averted. These gains translate to a monetary value of more than US$1·3 trillion. In addition, investment in hearing care will result in productivity benefits of more than US$2 trillion at the global level by 2030. Together, these benefits correspond to a return of nearly US$15 for every US$1 invested. INTERPRETATION: This is the first-ever global investment case for integrating ear and hearing care interventions in countries' universal health coverage services. The findings show the economic benefits of investing in this compendium and provide the basis for facilitating the increase of country's health budget for strengthening ear and hearing care services. FUNDING: None.
Subject(s)
Hearing Loss/prevention & control , Hearing Loss/therapy , Universal Health Care , World Health Organization/organization & administration , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Developing Countries , Ear Diseases/economics , Ear Diseases/prevention & control , Ear Diseases/therapy , Health Services Accessibility/economics , Hearing Aids/economics , Hearing Loss/economics , Humans , Mass Screening/economics , Models, Econometric , World Health Organization/economicsABSTRACT
The number of applications for drones under R&D have growth significantly during the last few years; however, the wider adoption of these technologies requires ensuring public trust and acceptance. Noise has been identified as one of the key concerns for public acceptance. Although substantial research has been carried out to better understand the sound source generation mechanisms in drones, important questions remain about the requirements for operational procedures and regulatory frameworks. An important issue is that drones operate within different airspace, closer to communities than conventional aircraft, and that the noise produced is highly tonal and contains a greater proportion of high-frequency broadband noise compared with typical aircraft noise. This is likely to cause concern for exposed communities due to impacts on public health and well-being. This paper presents a modelling framework for setting recommendations for drone operations to minimise community noise impact. The modelling framework is based on specific noise targets, e.g., the guidelines at a receiver position defined by WHO for sleep quality inside a residential property. The main assumption is that the estimation of drone noise exposure indoors is highly relevant for informing operational constraints to minimise noise annoyance and sleep disturbance. This paper illustrates the applicability of the modelling framework with a case study, where maximum A-weighted sound pressure levels LAmax and sound exposure levels SEL as received in typical indoor environments are used to define drone-façade minimum distance to meet WHO recommendations. The practical and scalable capabilities of this modelling framework make it a useful tool for inferring and assessing the impact of drone noise through compliance with appropriate guideline noise criteria. It is considered that with further refinement, this modelling framework could prove to be a significant tool in assisting with the development of noise metrics, regulations specific to drone operations and the assessment of future drone operations and associated noise.
Subject(s)
Noise , Sleep Wake Disorders , Aircraft , Humans , Public Health , Unmanned Aerial DevicesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a traditional harmful practice affecting 200 million women and girls globally. Health complications of FGM occur immediately and over time, and are associated with healthcare costs that are poorly understood. Quantifying the global FGM-related burden is essential for supporting programmes and policies for prevention and mitigation. METHODS: Health complications of FGM are derived from a meta-analysis and stratified by acute, uro-gynaecological, obstetric and psychological/sexual. Treatment costs are calculated from national cohort models of 27 high-burden countries over 30 years. Savings associated with full/partial abandonment are compared with a current incidence reference scenario, assuming no changes in FGM practices. RESULTS: Our model projects an increasing burden of FGM due to population growth. As a reference scenario assuming no change in practices, prevalent cases in 27 countries will rise from 119.4 million (2018) to 205.8 million (2047). Full abandonment could reduce this to 80.0 million (2047), while partial abandonment is insufficient to reduce cases. Current incidence economic burden is US$1.4 billion/year, rising to US$2.1 billion/year in 2047. Full abandonment would reduce the future burden to US$0.8 billion/year by 2047. CONCLUSION: FGM is a human rights violation, a public health issue and a substantial economic burden that can be avoided through effective prevention strategies. While decreasing trends are observed in some countries, these trends are variable and not consistently observed across settings. Additional resources are needed to prevent FGM to avoid human suffering and growing costs. The findings of this study warrant increased political commitment and investment in the abandonment of FGM.
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Circumcision, Female , Female , Financial Stress , Human Rights , Humans , Incidence , Male , Pregnancy , PrevalenceABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Digital health technologies have been used to enhance adherence to TB medication, but the cost-effectiveness remains unclear. METHODS: We used the real data from the study conducted from April 2014 to December 2020 in Morocco using a smart pillbox with a web-based medication monitoring system, called Medication Event Monitoring Systems (MEMS). Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using a decision analysis model including Markov model for Multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB from the health system perspective. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Two-way sensitive analysis was done for the treatment success rate between MEMS and standard of care. RESULTS: The average total per-patient health system costs for treating a new TB patient under MEMS versus standard of care were $398.70 and $155.70, respectively. The MEMS strategy would reduce the number of drug-susceptible TB cases by 0.17 and MDR-TB cases by 0.01 per patient over five years. The ICER of MEMS was $434/DALY averted relative to standard of care, and was most susceptible to the TB treatment success rate of both strategies followed by the managing cost of MEMS. CONCLUSION: MEMS is considered cost-effective for managing infectious active TB in Morocco.
Subject(s)
Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant , Tuberculosis , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Morocco , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/drug therapyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Prospective malaria public health interventions are initially tested for entomological impact using standardised experimental hut trials. In some cases, data are collated as aggregated counts of potential outcomes from mosquito feeding attempts given the presence of an insecticidal intervention. Comprehensive data i.e. full breakdowns of probable outcomes of mosquito feeding attempts, are more rarely available. Bayesian evidence synthesis is a framework that explicitly combines data sources to enable the joint estimation of parameters and their uncertainties. The aggregated and comprehensive data can be combined using an evidence synthesis approach to enhance our inference about the potential impact of vector control products across different settings over time. METHODS: Aggregated and comprehensive data from a meta-analysis of the impact of Pirimiphos-methyl, an indoor residual spray (IRS) product active ingredient, used on wall surfaces to kill mosquitoes and reduce malaria transmission, were analysed using a series of statistical models to understand the benefits and limitations of each. RESULTS: Many more data are available in aggregated format (N = 23 datasets, 4 studies) relative to comprehensive format (N = 2 datasets, 1 study). The evidence synthesis model had the smallest uncertainty at predicting the probability of mosquitoes dying or surviving and blood-feeding. Generating odds ratios from the correlated Bernoulli random sample indicates that when mortality and blood-feeding are positively correlated, as exhibited in our data, the number of successfully fed mosquitoes will be under-estimated. Analysis of either dataset alone is problematic because aggregated data require an assumption of independence and there are few and variable data in the comprehensive format. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an approach to combine sources from trials to maximise the inference that can be made from such data and that is applicable to other systems. Bayesian evidence synthesis enables inference from multiple datasets simultaneously to give a more informative result and highlight conflicts between sources. Advantages and limitations of these models are discussed.
Subject(s)
Culicidae , Insecticide-Treated Bednets , Insecticides , Malaria , Animals , Bayes Theorem , Disease Progression , Information Storage and Retrieval , Malaria/prevention & control , Mosquito Control , Mosquito Vectors , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Expected toxicity from chemoradiation (CRT) is an important factor in treatment decisions but is poorly understood in older adults with lower gastrointestinal (GI) malignancies. Our objective was to compare acute adverse events (AAEs) of older and younger adults with lower GI malignancies treated on NRG studies. METHODS: Data from 6 NRG trials, testing combined modality therapy in patients with anal or rectal cancer, were used to test the hypothesis that older age was associated with increased AAEs. AAEs and compliance with protocol-directed therapy were compared between patients aged ≥70 and < 70. Categorical variables were compared across age groups using the chi-square test. The association of age on AAEs was evaluated using a covariate-adjusted logistic regression model, with odds ratio (OR) reported. To adjust for multiple comparisons, a p-value <0.01 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: There were 2525 patients, including 380 patients ≥70 years old (15%) evaluable. Older patients were more likely to have worse baseline performance status (PS 1 or 2) (23% vs. 16%, p = 0.001), but otherwise baseline characteristics were similar. Older patients were less likely to complete their chemotherapy (78% vs. 87%, p < 0.001), but had similar RT duration. On univariate analysis, older patients were more likely to experience grade ≥ 3 GI AAEs (36% vs. 23%, p < 0.001), and less likely to experience grade ≥ 3 skin AAEs (8% vs. 14%, p = 0.002). On multivariable analysis, older age was associated with grade ≥ 3 GI AAE (OR 1.93, 95% CI: 1.52, 2.47, p < 0.001) after adjusting for sex, race, PS, and disease site. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients with lower GI cancers who underwent CRT were less likely to complete chemotherapy and had higher rates of grade 3+ GI AAEs. These results can be used to counsel older adults prior to treatment and manage expected toxicities throughout pelvic CRT.
Subject(s)
Chemoradiotherapy , Rectal Neoplasms , Aged , Chemoradiotherapy/adverse effects , Chemoradiotherapy/methods , Humans , Radiotherapy, Intensity-Modulated/adverse effects , Radiotherapy, Intensity-Modulated/methods , Rectal Neoplasms/drug therapyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is a troublesome chronic symptom that has no proven pharmacologic treatment. The purpose of this double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial was to evaluate a novel compounded topical gel for this problem. METHODS: Patients with CIPN were randomized to baclofen 10 mg, amitriptyline HCL 40 mg, and ketamine 20 mg in a pluronic lecithin organogel (BAK-PLO) versus placebo (PLO) to determine its effect on numbness, tingling, pain, and function. The primary endpoint was the baseline-adjusted sensory subscale of the EORTC QLQ-CIPN20, at 4 weeks. RESULTS: Data in 208 patients reveal a trend for improvement that is greater in the BAK-PLO arm over placebo in both the sensory (p = 0.053) and motor subscales (p = 0.021). The greatest improvements were related to the symptoms of tingling, cramping, and shooting/burning pain in the hands as well as difficulty in holding a pen. There were no undesirable toxicities associated with the BAK-PLO and no evidence of systemic toxicity. CONCLUSION: Topical treatment with BAK-PLO appears to somewhat improve symptoms of CIPN. This topical gel was well tolerated, without evident systemic toxicity. Further research is needed with increased doses to better clarify the clinical role of this treatment in CIPN.
Subject(s)
Amitriptyline/therapeutic use , Baclofen/therapeutic use , Ketamine/therapeutic use , Peripheral Nervous System Diseases/drug therapy , Administration, Cutaneous , Adrenergic Uptake Inhibitors/administration & dosage , Adrenergic Uptake Inhibitors/adverse effects , Adrenergic Uptake Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Aged , Amitriptyline/administration & dosage , Amitriptyline/adverse effects , Antineoplastic Agents/adverse effects , Baclofen/administration & dosage , Baclofen/adverse effects , Double-Blind Method , Drug Combinations , Excitatory Amino Acid Antagonists/administration & dosage , Excitatory Amino Acid Antagonists/adverse effects , Excitatory Amino Acid Antagonists/therapeutic use , Female , GABA-B Receptor Agonists/administration & dosage , GABA-B Receptor Agonists/adverse effects , GABA-B Receptor Agonists/therapeutic use , Gels , Humans , Ketamine/administration & dosage , Ketamine/adverse effects , Lecithins/chemistry , Male , Middle Aged , Peripheral Nervous System Diseases/chemically induced , Poloxamer/chemistry , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Prioritisation of oral bedaquiline over the injectable agents in the treatment of multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in the World Health Organisations (WHO) 2019 guidelines prompted this UK analysis of cost implications. The objective was to estimate the costs of amikacin versus bedaquiline in MDR TB treatment regimens using a historical cohort where the injectable agents were the standard of care. METHODS: This was a retrospective study using a known cohort of UK patients treated with an injectable agent, with data available on resource use, costs for the use of amikacin were compared with those for bedaquiline, based on recommended monitoring for bedaquiline. RESULTS: The estimated cost of treatment per patient had mean (sd) of £27,236 (4952) for the observed injectable group, £30,264 (3392) and 36,309 (3901) for the 6 and 8 month amikacin groups, and £31,760 (2092) for the bedaquiline group. The cost in the bedaquiline group was £30,772 (1855) with a 10% reduction and £27,079 (1234) with a 33% reduction in-patient stay. CONCLUSIONS: In most scenarios, bedaquiline is close to cost neutral compared with injectable therapy, especially if, as expected, some reduction in duration of admission is possible as a result of bedaquiline's more rapid culture conversion.