Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Data Is Difficult.

Numerous studies covering some aspects of SARS-CoV-2 data analyses are being published on a daily basis, including a regularly updated phylogeny on nextstrain.org. Here, we review the difficulties of inferring reliable phylogenies by example of a data snapshot comprising a quality-filtered subset of 8,736 out of all 16,453 virus sequences available on May 5, 2020 from gisaid.org. We find that it is difficult to infer a reliable phylogeny on these data due to the large number of sequences in conjunction with the low number of mutations. We further find that rooting the inferred phylogeny with some degree of confidence either via the bat and pangolin outgroups or by applying novel computational methods on the ingroup phylogeny does not appear to be credible. Finally, an automatic classification of the current sequences into subclasses using the mPTP tool for molecular species delimitation is also, as might be expected, not possible, as the sequences are too closely related. We conclude that, although the application of phylogenetic methods to disentangle the evolution and spread of COVID-19 provides some insight, results of phylogenetic analyses, in particular those conducted under the default settings of current phylogenetic inference tools, as well as downstream analyses on the inferred phylogenies, should be considered and interpreted with extreme caution.

Exploring parallel MPI fault tolerance mechanisms for phylogenetic inference with RAxML-NG.

MOTIVATION: Phylogenetic trees are now routinely inferred on large scale high performance computing systems with thousands of cores as the parallel scalability of phylogenetic inference tools has improved over the past years to cope with the molecular data avalanche. Thus, the parallel fault tolerance of phylogenetic inference tools has become a relevant challenge. To this end, we explore parallel fault tolerance mechanisms and algorithms, the software modifications required and the performance penalties induced via enabling parallel fault tolerance by example of RAxML-NG, the successor of the widely used RAxML tool for maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic tree inference. RESULTS: We find that the slowdown induced by the necessary additional recovery mechanisms in RAxML-NG is on average 1.00 ± 0.04. The overall slowdown by using these recovery mechanisms in conjunction with a fault-tolerant Message Passing Interface implementation amounts to on average 1.7 ± 0.6 for large empirical datasets. Via failure simulations, we show that RAxML-NG can successfully recover from multiple simultaneous failures, subsequent failures, failures during recovery and failures during checkpointing. Recoveries are automatic and transparent to the user. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The modified fault-tolerant RAxML-NG code is available under GNU GPL at https://github.com/lukashuebner/ft-raxml-ng. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

The Free Lunch is not over yet-systematic exploration of numerical thresholds in maximum likelihood phylogenetic inference.

Summary: Maximum likelihood (ML) is a widely used phylogenetic inference method. ML implementations heavily rely on numerical optimization routines that use internal numerical thresholds to determine convergence. We systematically analyze the impact of these threshold settings on the log-likelihood and runtimes for ML tree inferences with RAxML-NG, IQ-TREE, and FastTree on empirical datasets. We provide empirical evidence that we can substantially accelerate tree inferences with RAxML-NG and IQ-TREE by changing the default values of two such numerical thresholds. At the same time, altering these settings does not significantly impact the quality of the inferred trees. We further show that increasing both thresholds accelerates the RAxML-NG bootstrap without influencing the resulting support values. For RAxML-NG, increasing the likelihood thresholds ϵLnL and ϵbrlen to 10 and 103, respectively, results in an average tree inference speedup of 1.9 ± 0.6 on Data collection 1, 1.8 ± 1.1 on Data collection 2, and 1.9 ± 0.8 on Data collection 2 for the RAxML-NG bootstrap compared to the runtime under the current default setting. Increasing the likelihood threshold ϵLnL to 10 in IQ-TREE results in an average tree inference speedup of 1.3 ± 0.4 on Data collection 1 and 1.3 ± 0.9 on Data collection 2. Availability and implementation: All MSAs we used for our analyses, as well as all results, are available for download at https://cme.h-its.org/exelixis/material/freeLunch_data.tar.gz. Our data generation scripts are available at https://github.com/tschuelia/ml-numerical-analysis.