Primary biliary cholangitis drug evaluation and regulatory approval: Where do we go from here?

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. The management landscape was transformed 20 years ago with the advent of ursodeoxycholic acid. Up to 40% of patients do not, however, respond adequately to ursodeoxycholic acid and therefore still remain at risk of disease progression to cirrhosis. The introduction of obeticholic acid as a second-line therapy for patients failing ursodeoxycholic acid has improved outcomes for patients with PBC. There remains, however, a need for better treatment for patients at higher risk. The greatest threat facing our efforts to improve treatment in PBC is, paradoxically, the regulatory approval model providing conditional marketing authorization for new drugs based on biochemical markers on the condition that long-term, randomized placebo-controlled outcome trials are performed to confirm efficacy. As demonstrated by the COBALT confirmatory study with obeticholic acid, it is difficult to retain patients in the required follow-on confirmatory placebo-controlled PBC outcome trials when a licensed drug is commercially available. New PBC therapies in development, such as the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonists, face even greater challenges in demonstrating outcome benefit through randomized placebo-controlled studies once following conditional marketing authorization, as there will be even more treatment options available. A recently published EMA Reflection Paper provides some guidance on the regulatory pathway to full approval but fails to recognize the importance of real-world data in providing evidence of outcome benefit in rare diseases. Here we explore the impact of the EMA reflection paper on PBC therapy and offer pragmatic solutions for generating evidence of long-term outcomes through real-world data collection.

Event-free survival of maralixibat-treated patients with Alagille syndrome compared to a real-world cohort from GALA.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alagille syndrome (ALGS) is characterized by chronic cholestasis with associated pruritus and extrahepatic anomalies. Maralixibat, an ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor, is an approved pharmacologic therapy for cholestatic pruritus in ALGS. Since long-term placebo-controlled studies are not feasible or ethical in children with rare diseases, a novel approach was taken comparing 6-year outcomes from maralixibat trials with an aligned and harmonized natural history cohort from the G lobal AL agille A lliance (GALA) study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Maralixibat trials comprise 84 patients with ALGS with up to 6 years of treatment. GALA contains retrospective data from 1438 participants. GALA was filtered to align with key maralixibat eligibility criteria, yielding 469 participants. Serum bile acids could not be included in the GALA filtering criteria as these are not routinely performed in clinical practice. Index time was determined through maximum likelihood estimation in an effort to align the disease severity between the two cohorts with the initiation of maralixibat. Event-free survival, defined as the time to first event of manifestations of portal hypertension (variceal bleeding, ascites requiring therapy), surgical biliary diversion, liver transplant, or death, was analyzed by Cox proportional hazards methods. Sensitivity analyses and adjustments for covariates were applied. Age, total bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and alanine aminotransferase were balanced between groups with no statistical differences. Event-free survival in the maralixibat cohort was significantly better than the GALA cohort (HR, 0.305; 95% CI, 0.189-0.491; p <0.0001). Multiple sensitivity and subgroup analyses (including serum bile acid availability) showed similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a novel application of a robust statistical method to evaluate outcomes in long-term intervention studies where placebo comparisons are not feasible, providing wide application for rare diseases. This comparison with real-world natural history data suggests that maralixibat improves event-free survival in patients with ALGS.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in sub-Saharan African and Afro-Surinamese individuals with chronic hepatitis B living in Europe.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Sub-Saharan African (SSA) ethnicity has been associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among individuals with chronic hepatitis B in cross-sectional studies. However, the incidence of HCC and performance of HCC risk scores in this population are unknown. METHODS: We conducted an international multicenter retrospective cohort study of all consecutive HBV-monoinfected individuals of SSA or Afro-Surinamese (AS) ethnicity managed at sites in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Spain. We assessed the 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC in the overall study population, among different clinically relevant subgroups and across (m)PAGE-B subgroups. Next, we explored the different risk factors for HCC. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8 years, we analyzed 1,473 individuals of whom 34 developed HCC. The 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1% and 2.4%. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.7% among individuals without advanced fibrosis at baseline, compared to 12.1% among individuals with advanced fibrosis (p <0.001). Higher age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.05), lower platelet count (aHR 0.98), lower albumin level (aHR 0.90) and higher HBV DNA log10 (aHR 1.21) were significantly associated with HCC development. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5% among individuals with a low PAGE-B score, compared to 2.9% in the intermediate- and 15.9% in the high-risk groups (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this unique international multicenter cohort of SSA and AS individuals with chronic hepatitis B, we observed 5- and 10-year cumulative HCC risks of 1% and 2.4%, respectively. The risk of HCC was negligible for individuals without advanced fibrosis at baseline, and among individuals with low baseline (m)PAGE-B scores. These findings can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Sub-Saharan African ethnicity has been associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with chronic hepatitis B. In this international multicenter cohort study of sub-Saharan African and Afro-Surinamese individuals living with chronic hepatitis B in Europe, we observed 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma of 1% and 2.4%, respectively. The risk was negligible among individuals without advanced fibrosis and a low baseline (m)PAGE-B score. These findings can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies in this population.

Treatment response and clinical event-free survival in autoimmune hepatitis: A Canadian multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Treatment outcomes for people living with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are limited by a lack of specific therapies, as well as limited well-validated prognostic tools and clinical trial endpoints. We sought to identify predictors of outcome for people living with AIH. METHODS: We evaluated the clinical course of people with AIH across 11 Canadian centres. Biochemical changes were analysed using linear mixed-effect and logistic regression. Clinical outcome was dynamically modelled using time-varying Cox proportional hazard modelling and landmark analysis. RESULTS: In 691 patients (median age 49 years, 75.4% female), with a median follow-up of 6 years (25th-75th percentile, 2.5-11), 118 clinical events occurred. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalisation occurred in 63.8% of the cohort by 12 months. Older age at diagnosis (odd ratio [OR] 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.35) and female sex (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.18-3.19) were associated with ALT normalisation at 6 months, whilst baseline cirrhosis status was associated with reduced chance of normalisation at 12 months (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.82). Baseline total bilirubin, aminotransferases, and IgG values, as well as initial prednisone dose, did not predict average ALT reduction. At baseline, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40), cirrhosis at diagnosis (HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.48-5.43), and elevated baseline total bilirubin (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17-1.58) increased the risk of clinical events. Prolonged elevations in ALT (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.13) and aspartate aminotransferase (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21), but not IgG (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95-1.07), were associated with higher risk of clinical events. Higher ALT at 6 months was associated with worse clinical event-free survival. CONCLUSION: In people living with AIH, sustained elevated aminotransferase values, but not IgG, are associated with poorer long-term outcomes. Biochemical response and long-term survival are not associated with starting prednisone dose. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Using clinical data from multiple Canadian liver clinics treating autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), we evaluate treatment response and clinical outcomes. For the first time, we apply mixed-effect and time-varying survival statistical methods to rigorously examine treatment response and the impact of fluctuating liver biochemistry on clinical event-free survival. Key to the study impact, our data is 'real-world', represents a diverse population across Canada, and uses continuous measurements over follow-up. Our results challenge the role of IgG as a marker of treatment response and if normalisation of IgG should remain an important part of the definition of biochemical remission. Our analysis further highlights that baseline markers of disease severity may not prognosticate early treatment response. Additionally, the initial prednisone dose may be less relevant for achieving aminotransferase normalisation. This is important for patients and treating clinicians given the relevance and importance of side effects.

Prognostic Scores for Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients Predict Graft Loss and Mortality in Recurrent Primary Biliary Cholangitis after Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of scores for PBC to predict the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centres across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2 - 62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were females. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3 - 12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (HR, 3.97, 95%CI 1.36-11.55, P=0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95%CI 1.04-9.73, P=0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.26-2.01, P<0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95%CI 1.57-10.92, P=0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95%CI 1.71-4.66, P<0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.03-1.09, P<0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were found in the overall survival analysis. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity as indicated by standard PBC risk scores have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who have liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid according to conventional prognostic scores have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results emphasized supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Comparing Time to Diagnosis and Treatment Between Younger and Older Adults With Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Younger adults (aged <50 years) with colorectal cancer (CRC) may have prolonged delays to diagnosis and treatment that are associated with adverse outcomes. We compared delay intervals by age for patients with CRC in a large population. METHODS: This was a population-based study of adults diagnosed with CRC in Ontario, Canada, from 2003 to 2018. We measured the time between presentation and diagnosis (diagnostic interval), diagnosis and treatment start (treatment interval), and the time from presentation to treatment (overall interval). We compared interval lengths between adults aged <50 years, 50 to 74 years, and 75 to 89 years using multivariable quantile regression. RESULTS: Included were 90,225 patients with CRC. Of these, 6853 patients (7.6%) were aged <50 years. Younger patients were more likely to be women, present emergently, have stage IV disease, and have rectal cancer compared with middle-aged patients. Factors associated with significantly longer overall intervals included female sex (8.7 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6-10.9 days) and rectal cancer compared with proximal colon cancer (9.8 days; 95% CI, 7.4-2.2 days). After adjustment, adults aged <50 years had significantly longer diagnostic intervals (4.3 days; 95% CI. 1.3-7.3 days) and significantly shorter treatment intervals (-4.5 days; 95% CI, -5.3 to -3.7 days) compared with middle-aged patients. However, there was no significant difference in the overall interval (-0.6 days; 95% CI, -4.3 to 3.2 days). In stratified models, younger adults with stage IV disease who presented emergently and patients aged >75 years had longer overall intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adults present more often with stage IV CRC but have overall similar times from presentation to treatment as screening-eligible older adults.

Limited Sustained Remission After Nucleos(t)ide Analog Withdrawal: Results From a Large, Global, Multiethnic Cohort of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B (RETRACT-B Study).

INTRODUCTION: Complete viral suppression with nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) has led to a profound reduction in hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality among patients with chronic hepatitis B. Finite therapy yields higher rates of functional cure; however, initial hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations are almost certain after treatment interruption. We aimed to analyze off-treatment outcomes beyond 12 months after NA cessation. METHODS: Patients with well-suppressed chronic hepatitis B who were hepatitis B e antigen-negative at NA cessation and remained off treatment without hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss at 12 months were included (n = 945). HBV DNA and ALT fluctuations were allowed within the first 12 months. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to analyze outcomes beyond 12 months. Sustained remission was defined as HBV DNA <2,000 IU/mL and ALT <2× upper limit of normal (ULN) and an ALT flare as ALT ≥5× ULN. RESULTS: Cumulative probability of sustained remission was 29.7%, virological relapse was 65.2% with a mean peak HBV DNA of 5.0 ± 1.5 log 10 IU/mL, an ALT flare was 15.6% with a median peak ALT × ULN of 8.3 (5.7-11.3), HBsAg loss was 9.9% and retreatment was 34.9% at 48 months after NA cessation. A single occurrence of virological relapse or an ALT flare within the first 12 months off-treatment were associated with significantly lower rates of sustained remission beyond 12 months. DISCUSSION: Despite allowing for HBV DNA and ALT fluctuations within the first 12 months off-treatment, most patients without HBsAg loss did not maintain a sustained response thereafter. The best candidates for NA withdrawal are patients with low HBsAg levels at NA cessation, and those without profound or recurrent virological and biochemical relapses in the first off-treatment year.

Addition of PEG-interferon to long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy enhances HBsAg decline and clearance in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B: Multicentre Randomized Trial (PAS Study).

We studied whether 48 weeks of PEG-IFN alfa-2a add-on increases HBsAg-decline and clearance in HBeAg-negative patients on long-term nucleo(s)tide analogue (NA) therapy. In this investigator-initiated, randomized, controlled trial conducted in Europe and Canada, HBeAg-negative patients treated with NA > 12 months, with HBVDNA < 200 IU/mL, were enrolled. Patients were randomized 2:1 to 48 weeks of PEG-IFN alfa-2a add-on (180 µg per week) or continued NA-monotherapy with subsequent follow-up to Week 72. Endpoints were HBsAg decline (≥1 log10 IU/mL) and HBsAg clearance at Week 48. Of the 86 patients in the modified-intention-to-treat analysis, 58 patients received PEG-IFN add-on, and 28 continued NA monotherapy. At Week 48, 16(28%) patients achieved HBsAg decline ≥1 log10 in the add-on arm versus none on NA-monotherapy (p < .001), and HBsAg clearance was observed in 6 (10%) PEG-IFN add-on patients versus 0% NA-monotherapy (p = .01). HBVRNA was only detected in 2% after PEG-IFN treatment versus 19% in NA-monotherapy (p = .002) at Week 48. PEG-IFN add-on therapy was well tolerated in majority of patients. Low baseline HBsAg levels (<10 IU/mL) identified patients most likely to achieve HBsAg loss with PEG-IFN add-on, whereas an HBsAg level > 200 IU/mL at on-treatment Week 12 was highly predictive of non-response (NPV = 100%). Addition of PEG-IFN to long-term NA enhanced HBsAg decline and increased the chance of HBsAg clearance in HBeAg-negative patients on long-term NA. On-treatment HBsAg levels >200 IU/mL identify patients unlikely to benefit from PEG-IFN add-on and could be used as a potential stopping-rule for PEG-IFN therapy. Our findings support further exploration of immune modulation add-on to antiviral therapy, preferably using response-guided strategies, to increase functional cure rates in patients with CHB.

Predictors of 6-year event-free survival in Alagille syndrome patients treated with maralixibat, an ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Refractory pruritus and other complications of cholestasis are indications for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with Alagille syndrome (ALGS). We evaluated predictors of event-free survival and transplant-free survival in patients with ALGS treated with maralixibat (MRX), an ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We assessed patients with ALGS from 3 clinical trials of MRX with up to 6 years of follow-up. Event-free survival was defined as the absence of LT, surgical biliary diversion, hepatic decompensation, or death; transplant-free survival was the absence of LT or death. Forty-three potential predictors were evaluated, including age, pruritus (ItchRO[Obs] 0-4 scale), biochemistries, platelets, and serum bile acids. Harrell's concordance statistic assessed goodness-of-fit, and then, Cox proportional hazard models confirmed the statistical significance of the predictors identified. A further analysis was performed to identify cutoffs using a grid search. Seventy-six individuals met the criteria of receiving MRX for ≥48 weeks with laboratory values available at week 48 (W48). The median duration of MRX was 4.7 years (IQR: 1.6-5.8); 16 had events (10 LT, 3 decompensation, 2 death, and 1 surgical biliary diversion). The 6-year event-free survival improved with a clinically meaningful >1-point ItchRO(Obs) reduction from baseline to W48 (88% vs. 57%; p = 0.005), W48 bilirubin < 6.5 mg/dL (90% vs. 43%; p < 0.0001), and W48 serum bile acid < 200 µmol/L (85% vs. 49%; p = 0.001). These parameters were also predictive of 6-year transplant-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in pruritus by 48 weeks, and lower W48 bilirubin and serum bile acid levels were associated with fewer events. These data may help identify potential markers of disease progression for ALGS patients treated with MRX.

Association Between the Presence of Metabolic Comorbidities and Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and (liver-related) mortality. In addition to hepatitis B-related factors, metabolic comorbidities may contribute to the progression of fibrosis. Therefore, we studied the association between metabolic comorbidities and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CHB patients attending the Erasmus MC University Medical Center (Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy at the Toronto General Hospital (Toronto, Canada). The presence of metabolic comorbidities (ie, overweight, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia) was assessed based on chart review. The primary end point was liver-related events, defined as the first composite of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or liver-related mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed 1850 patients, of whom 926 (50.1%) were overweight, 161 (8.7%) had hypertension, 116 (6.3%) had dyslipidemia, and 82 (4.4%) had diabetes. During a median follow-up period of 7.3 years (interquartile range, 2.9-11.5 y), a total of 111 first events were recorded. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 8.3; 95% CI, 5.5-12.7), diabetes (HR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.2-9.1), dyslipidemia (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.8), and overweight (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5) were associated with an increased risk for liver-related events. The presence of multiple comorbidities further increased the risk. Findings were consistent for patients with and without cirrhosis, among noncirrhotic hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients with hepatitis B virus DNA less than 2000 IU/mL and in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, hepatitis B e antigen status, hepatitis B virus DNA, use of antiviral therapy, and the presence of cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic comorbidities in CHB patients are associated with an increased risk for liver-related events, with the highest risk observed in patients with multiple comorbidities. Findings were consistent in various clinically relevant subgroups, underscoring the need for thorough metabolic assessment in patients with CHB.

Differential Relapse Patterns After Discontinuation of Entecavir vs Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate in Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Whether entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) differentially affect relapse and outcomes following treatment discontinuation across different patient subpopulations remains unclear. We aimed to compare rates of off-therapy hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss, virological and clinical relapse, and retreatment between chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients who discontinued TDF or ETV therapy. METHODS: This study included 1402 virally suppressed CHB patients who stopped either ETV (n = 981) or TDF (n = 421) therapy between 2001 and 2020 from 13 participating centers across North America, Europe, and Asia. All patients were hepatitis B e antigen-negative at treatment discontinuation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance the treatment groups. Outcomes were analyzed using survival methods. RESULTS: During a median off-treatment follow-up of 18 months, HBsAg loss occurred in 96 (6.8%) patients overall. Compared with ETV, TDF was associated with a higher rate of HBsAg loss (P = .03); however, the association was no longer significant after statistical adjustment (P = .61). Virological relapse occurred earlier among TDF-treated patients (P < .01); nonetheless, rates became comparable after the first year off therapy (P = .49). TDF was significantly associated with a higher clinical relapse rate than ETV throughout follow-up (P < .01). The development of a virological or clinical relapse did not affect the rate of HBsAg loss. Retreatment rates were not significantly different between the treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: TDF and ETV have differential relapse patterns but are associated with similar rates of HBsAg loss and retreatment following discontinuation. Finite therapy can be considered for CHB patients on either TDF or ETV therapy.

Off-Therapy Response After Nucleos(t)ide Analogue Withdrawal in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B: An International, Multicenter, Multiethnic Cohort (RETRACT-B Study).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Functional cure, defined based on hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss, is rare during nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy and guidelines on finite NA therapy have not been well established. We aim to analyze off-therapy outcomes after NA cessation in a large, international, multicenter, multiethnic cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: This cohort study included patients with virally suppressed CHB who were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative and stopped NA therapy. Primary outcome was HBsAg loss after NA cessation, and secondary outcomes included virologic, biochemical, and clinical relapse, alanine aminotransferase flare, retreatment, and liver-related events after NA cessation. RESULTS: Among 1552 patients with CHB, cumulative probability of HBsAg loss was 3.2% at 12 months and 13.0% at 48 months of follow-up. HBsAg loss was higher among Whites (vs Asians: subdistribution hazard ratio, 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.7-16.8; P < .001) and among patients with HBsAg levels <100 IU/mL at end of therapy (vs ≥100 IU/mL: subdistribution hazard ratio, 22.5; 95% confidence interval, 13.1-38.7; P < .001). At 48 months of follow-up, Whites with HBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL and Asians with HBsAg levels <100 IU/mL at end of therapy had a high predicted probability of HBsAg loss (>30%). Incidence rate of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma was 0.48 per 1000 person-years and 0.29 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Death occurred in 7/19 decompensated patients and 2/14 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: The best candidates for NA withdrawal are virally suppressed, HBeAg- negative, noncirrhotic patients with CHB with low HBsAg levels, particularly Whites with <1000 IU/mL and Asians with <100 IU/mL. However, strict surveillance is recommended to prevent deterioration.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Incidence of Hepatic Decompensation After Nucleos(t)ide Analog Withdrawal: Results From a Large, International, Multiethnic Cohort of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B (RETRACT-B Study).

INTRODUCTION: Despite improvements in the management of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma remains. While hepatitis B surface antigen loss is the optimal end point, safe discontinuation of nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) therapy is controversial because of the possibility of severe or fatal reactivation flares. METHODS: This is a multicenter cohort study of virally suppressed, end-of-therapy (EOT) hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative CHB patients who stopped NA therapy (n = 1,557). Survival analysis techniques were used to analyze off-therapy rates of hepatic decompensation and differences by patient characteristics. We also examined a subgroup of noncirrhotic patients with consolidation therapy of ≥12 months before cessation (n = 1,289). Hepatic decompensation was considered related to therapy cessation if diagnosed off therapy or within 6 months of starting retreatment. RESULTS: Among the total cohort (11.8% diagnosed with cirrhosis, 84.2% start-of-therapy HBeAg-negative), 20 developed hepatic decompensation after NA cessation; 10 events were among the subgroup. The cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation at 60 months off therapy among the total cohort and subgroup was 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively. The hepatic decompensation rate was higher among patients with cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] 5.08, P < 0.001) and start-of-therapy HBeAg-positive patients (HR 5.23, P < 0.001). This association between start-of-therapy HBeAg status and hepatic decompensation remained significant even among the subgroup (HR 10.5, P < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Patients with cirrhosis and start-of-therapy HBeAg-positive patients should be carefully assessed before stopping NAs to prevent hepatic decompensation. Frequent monitoring of viral and host kinetics after cessation is crucial to determine patient outcome.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Hepatitis C virus-specific immune responses following direct-acting antivirals administered during recent hepatitis C virus infection.

Individuals who spontaneously clear hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have demonstrated evidence of partial protective immunity, whereas treatment-induced clearance provides little or no protection against reinfection. We aimed to investigate whether treatment of acute HCV infection with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) prevents establishment of, or reverses, T-cell exhaustion, leading to a virus-specific T-cell immune profile more similar to that seen in spontaneous clearance. The magnitude and breadth of HCV-specific T-cell responses before and after DAA or interferon-based therapy in acute or chronic HCV were compared to those of participants with spontaneous clearance of infection, using Enzyme-linked Immunospot (ELISPOT). PBMCs were available for 55 patients comprising 4 groups: spontaneous clearance (n = 17), acute interferon (n = 14), acute DAA (n = 13) and chronic DAA (n = 11). After controlling for sex, the magnitude of post-treatment HCV-specific responses after acute DAA treatment was greater than after chronic DAA or acute IFN treatment and similar to those found in spontaneous clearers. However, spontaneous clearers responded to more HCV peptide pools indicating greater breadth of response. In conclusion, early treatment with DAAs may prevent or reverse some degree of immune exhaustion and result in stronger HCV-specific responses post-treatment. However, individuals with spontaneous clearance had broader HCV-specific responses.

Dynamic risk profiling of HCC recurrence after curative intent liver resection.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Following liver resection (LR) for HCC, the likelihood of survival is dynamic, in that multiple recurrences and/or metastases are possible, each having variable impacts on outcomes. We sought to evaluate the natural progression, pattern, and timing of various disease states after LR for HCC using multistate modeling and to create a practical calculator to provide prognostic information for patients and clinicians. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adult patients undergoing LR for HCC between January 2000 and December 2018 were retrospectively identified at a single center. Multistate analysis modeled post-LR tumor progression by describing transitions between distinct disease states. In this model, the states included surgery, intrahepatic recurrence (first, second, third, fourth, fifth), distant metastasis with or without intrahepatic recurrence, and death. Of the 486 patients included, 169 (34.8%) remained recurrence-free, 205 (42.2%) developed intrahepatic recurrence, 80 (16.5%) developed distant metastasis, and 32 (7%) died. For an average patient having undergone LR, there was a 33.1% chance of remaining disease-free, a 31.0% chance of at least one intrahepatic recurrence, a 16.3% chance of distant metastasis, and a 19.8% chance of death within the first 60 months post-LR. The transition probability from surgery to first intrahepatic recurrence, without a subsequent state transition, increased from 3% (3 months) to 17.4% (30 months) and 17.2% (60 months). Factors that could modify these probabilities included tumor size, satellite lesions, and microvascular invasion. The online multistate model calculator can be found on https://multistatehcc.shinyapps.io/home/. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to standard single time-to-event estimates, multistate modeling provides more realistic prognostication of outcomes after LR for HCC by taking into account many postoperative disease states and transitions between them. Our multistate modeling calculator can provide meaningful data to guide the management of patients undergoing postoperative surveillance and therapy.

Ethnicity, disease severity, and survival in Canadian patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We investigated associations between ethnicity, survival, and disease severity in a diverse Canadian cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with PBC were included from the Canadian Network for Autoimmune Liver Disease. Ethnicity was defined using a modified list adopted from Statistics Canada, and ethnicities with small samples were grouped. Clinical events were defined as liver decompensation, HCC, liver transplantation, or death. Clinical event-free and liver transplantation-free survival were analyzed using Cox regression. Trajectories of serum liver function tests were assessed over time using mixed-effects regression. Health-related quality of life was assessed using the Short Form 36, the PBC-40 questionnaire, and the 5-D Itch scale and analyzed using mixed-effects regression. The cohort included 1538 patients with PBC from six sites and was comprised of 82% White, 4.7% Indigenous, 5.5% East Asian, 2.6% South Asian, and 5.1% miscellaneous ethnicities. Indigenous patients were the only ethnic group with impaired liver transplant-free and event-free survival compared to White patients (HR, 3.66; 95% CI, 2.23-6.01; HR, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.94-4.92). Indigenous patients were more likely to have a clinical event before diagnosis (10%) than all other ethnic groups despite similar age at diagnosis. Indigenous patients presented with higher alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, and GLOBE scores than White patients; and these relative elevations persisted during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Indigenous Canadians with PBC present with advanced disease and have worse long-term outcomes compared to White patients.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Quantifying the benefits of remission duration in focal and segmental glomerulosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Although the clinical benefit of obtaining a remission in proteinuria in nephrotic patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is recognized, the long-term value of maintaining it and the impact of relapses on outcome are not well described. METHODS: We examined the impact of remissions and relapses on either a 50% decline in kidney function or end-stage kidney disease (combined event) using time-dependent and landmark analyses in a retrospective study of all patients from the Toronto Glomerulonephritis Registry with biopsy-proven FSGS, established nephrotic-range proteinuria and at least one remission. RESULTS: In the 203 FSGS individuals with a remission, 89 never relapsed and 114 experienced at least one relapse. The first recurrence was often followed by a repeating pattern of remission and relapse. The 10-year survival from a combined event was 15% higher in those with no relapse versus those with any relapse. This smaller than anticipated difference was related to the favourable outcome in individuals whose relapses quickly remitted. Relapsers who ultimately ended in remission (n = 46) versus in relapse (n = 68) experienced a 91% and 32% 7-year event survival (P < .001), respectively. Using time-varying survival analyses that considered all periods of remission and relapse in every patient and adjusting for each period's initial estimated glomerular filtration rate, the state of relapse was associated with a 2.17 (95% confidence interval 1.32-3.58; P = .002) greater risk of experiencing a combined event even in this FSGS remission cohort. CONCLUSION: In FSGS, unless remissions are maintained and relapses avoided, long-term renal survival remains poor. Treatment strategies addressing remission duration remain poorly defined and should be an essential question in future trials.