Germline testing of BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2 and CHEK2 c.1100delC in 1514 triple negative familial and isolated breast cancers from a single centre, with extended testing of ATM, RAD51C and RAD51D in over 400.

BACKGROUND: The identification of germline pathogenic gene variants (PGVs) in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is important to inform further primary cancer risk reduction and TNBC treatment strategies. We therefore investigated the contribution of breast cancer associated PGVs to familial and isolated invasive TNBC. METHODS: Outcomes of germline BRCA1, BRCA2 and CHEK2_c.1100delC testing were recorded in 1514 women (743-isolated, 771-familial), and for PALB2 in 846 women (541-isolated, 305-familial), with TNBC and smaller numbers for additional genes. Breast cancer free controls were identified from Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening and BRIDGES (Breast cancer RIsk after Diagnostic GEne Sequencing) studies. RESULTS: BRCA1_PGVs were detected in 52 isolated (7.0%) and 195 (25.3%) familial cases (isolated-OR=58.9, 95% CI: 16.6 to 247.0), BRCA2_PGVs in 21 (2.8%) isolated and 67 (8.7%) familial cases (isolated-OR=5.0, 95% CI: 2.3 to 11.2), PALB2_PGVs in 9 (1.7%) isolated and 12 (3.9%) familial cases (isolated-OR=8.8, 95% CI: 2.5 to 30.4) and CHEK2_c.1100delC in 0 isolated and 3 (0.45%) familial cases (isolated-OR=0.0, 95% CI: 0.00 to 2.11). BRCA1_PGV detection rate was >10% for all familial TNBC age groups and significantly higher for younger diagnoses (familial: <50 years, n=165/538 (30.7%); ≥50 years, n=30/233 (12.9%); p<0.0001). Women with a G3_TNBC were more likely to have a BRCA1_PGV as compared with a BRCA2 or PALB2_PGV (p<0.0001). 0/743 isolated TNBC had the CHEK2_c.1100delC PGV and 0/305 any ATM_PGV, but 2/240 (0.83%) had a RAD51D_PGV. CONCLUSION: PGVs in BRCA1 are associated with G3_TNBCs. Familial TNBCs and isolated TNBCs <30 years have a >10% likelihood of a PGV in BRCA1. BRCA1_PGVs are associated with younger age of familial TNBC. There was no evidence for any increased risk of TNBC with CHEK2 or ATM PGVs.

TP53 c.455C>T p.(Pro152Leu) pathogenic variant is a lower risk allele with attenuated risks of breast cancer and sarcoma.

Germline (likely) pathogenic TP53 variants cause Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), typically associated with sarcoma, brain, breast and adrenal tumours. Although classical LFS is highly penetrant, the p.R337H variant, common in Brazil, is typically associated with childhood adrenal tumours and an older onset age of other LFS tumours. Previously, we reported the finding of p.P152L in 6 children from 5 families with adrenal tumours. We have now assessed cancer risks over the subsequent 23 years, and in one further family with p.P152L. Cancer risks were compared with those in the 11 families known to our service with classical dominant negative mutations affecting neighbouring codons 245 and 248 (codon 245/248).Compared with codon 245/248 families, we found lower age-related risks for all non-adrenal tumours in codon 152 families (p<0.0001) with an absence of breast cancer as compared with 100% penetrance by age 36 years in codon 245/248 families (p<0.0001), and lower rates of sarcoma in non-irradiated individuals (p=0.0001). Although there were more adrenal tumours in codon 152 families (6/26 individuals, 1/27 for codon 245/248), this was not significant (p=0.05).Understanding codon-specific cancer risks in LFS is important for accurate personalised cancer risk assessment, and subsequent prevention and early detection strategies.

Detection of pathogenic variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes in bilateral breast cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate the frequency of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in women with bilateral breast cancer. METHODS: We undertook BRCA1/2 and CHEK2 c.1100delC molecular analysis in 764 samples and a multigene panel in 156. Detection rates were assessed by age at first primary, Manchester Score, and breast pathology. Oestrogen receptor (ER) status of the contralateral versus first breast cancer was compared on 1081 patients with breast cancer with BRCA1/BRCA2 PVs. RESULTS: 764 women with bilateral breast cancer have undergone testing of BRCA1/2 and CHEK2; 407 were also tested for PALB2 and 177 for ATM. Detection rates were BRCA1 11.6%, BRCA2 14.0%, CHEK2 2.4%, PALB2 1.0%, ATM 1.1% and, for a subset of mainly very early onset tumours, TP53 4.6% (9 of 195). The highest PV detection rates were for triple negative cancers for BRCA1 (26.4%), grade 3 ER+HER2 for BRCA2 (27.9%) and HER2+ for CHEK2 (8.9%). ER status of the first primary in BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV heterozygotes was strongly predictive of the ER status of the second contralateral tumour since ~90% of second tumours were ER- in BRCA1 heterozygotes, and 50% were ER- in BRCA2 heterozygotes if the first was ER-. CONCLUSION: We have shown a high rate of detection of BRCA1 and BRCA2 PVs in triple negative and grade 3 ER+HER2- first primary diagnoses, respectively. High rates of HER2+ were associated with CHEK2 PVs, and women ≤30 years were associated with TP53 PVs. First primary ER status in BRCA1/2 strongly predicts the second tumour will be the same ER status even if unusual for PVs in that gene.

Differential involvement of germline pathogenic variants in breast cancer genes between DCIS and low-grade invasive cancers.

PURPOSE: To investigate frequency of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and grade 1 invasive breast cancer (G1BC). METHODS: We undertook BRCA1/2 analysis in 311 women with DCIS and 392 with G1BC and extended panel testing (non-BRCA1/2) in 176/311 with DCIS and 156/392 with G1BC. We investigated PV detection by age at diagnosis, Manchester Score (MS), DCIS grade and receptor status. RESULTS: 30/311 (9.6%) with DCIS and 16/392 with G1BC (4.1%) had a BRCA1/2 PV (p=0.003), and 24/176-(13.6%) and 7/156-(4.5%), respectively, a non-BRCA1/2 PV (p=0.004). Increasing MS was associated with increased likelihood of BRCA1/2 PV in both DCIS and G1BC, although the 10% threshold was not predictive for G1GB. 13/32 (40.6%) DCIS and 0/17 with G1BC <40 years had a non-BRCA1/2 PV (p<0.001). 0/16 DCIS G1 had a PV. For G2 and G3 DCIS, PV rates were 10/98 (BRCA1/2) and 9/90 (non-BRCA1/2), and 8/47 (BRCA1/2) and 8/45 (non-BRCA1/2), respectively. 6/9 BRCA1 and 3/26 BRCA2-associated DCIS were oestrogen receptor negative-(p=0.003). G1BC population testing showed no increased PV rate (OR=1.16, 95% CI 0.28 to 4.80). CONCLUSION: DCIS is more likely to be associated with both BRCA1/2 and non-BRCA1/2 PVs than G1BC. Extended panel testing ought to be offered in young-onset DCIS where PV detection rates are highest.

A likelihood ratio approach for utilizing case-control data in the clinical classification of rare sequence variants: application to BRCA1 and BRCA2.

A large number of variants identified through clinical genetic testing in disease susceptibility genes, are of uncertain significance (VUS). Following the recommendations of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP), the frequency in case-control datasets (PS4 criterion), can inform their interpretation. We present a novel case-control likelihood ratio-based method that incorporates gene-specific age-related penetrance. We demonstrate the utility of this method in the analysis of simulated and real datasets. In the analyses of simulated data, the likelihood ratio method was more powerful compared to other methods. Likelihood ratios were calculated for a case-control dataset of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), and compared with logistic regression results. A larger number of variants reached evidence in favor of pathogenicity, and a substantial number of variants had evidence against pathogenicity - findings that would not have been reached using other case-control analysis methods. Our novel method provides greater power to classify rare variants compared to classical case-control methods. As an initiative from the ENIGMA Analytical Working Group, we provide user-friendly scripts and pre-formatted excel calculators for implementation of the method for rare variants in BRCA1, BRCA2 and other high-risk genes with known penetrance.

Quantifying the effects of risk-stratified breast cancer screening when delivered in real time as routine practice versus usual screening: the BC-Predict non-randomised controlled study (NCT04359420).

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification as a routine part of the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) could provide a better balance of benefits and harms. We developed BC-Predict, to offer women when invited to the NHSBSP, which collects standard risk factor information; mammographic density; and in a sub-sample, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS). METHODS: Risk prediction was estimated primarily from self-reported questionnaires and mammographic density using the Tyrer-Cuzick risk model. Women eligible for NHSBSP were recruited. BC-Predict produced risk feedback letters, inviting women at high risk (≥8% 10-year) or moderate risk (≥5-<8% 10-year) to have appointments to discuss prevention and additional screening. RESULTS: Overall uptake of BC-Predict in screening attendees was 16.9% with 2472 consenting to the study; 76.8% of those received risk feedback within the 8-week timeframe. Recruitment was 63.2% with an onsite recruiter and paper questionnaire compared to <10% with BC-Predict only (P < 0.0001). Risk appointment attendance was highest for those at high risk (40.6%); 77.5% of those opted for preventive medication. DISCUSSION: We have shown that a real-time offer of breast cancer risk information (including both mammographic density and PRS) is feasible and can be delivered in reasonable time, although uptake requires personal contact. Preventive medication uptake in women newly identified at high risk is high and could improve the cost-effectiveness of risk stratification. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04359420).

Breast cancer polygenic risk scores derived in White European populations are not calibrated for women of Ashkenazi Jewish descent.

PURPOSE: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are a major component of accurate breast cancer (BC) risk prediction but require ethnicity-specific calibration. Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population is assumed to be of White European (WE) origin in some commercially available PRSs despite differing effect allele frequencies (EAFs). We conducted a case-control study of WE and AJ women from the Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening Study. The Breast Cancer in Northern Israel Study provided a separate AJ population-based case-control validation series. METHODS: All women underwent Illumina OncoArray single-nucleotide variation (SNV; formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP]) analysis. Two PRSs were assessed, SNV142 and SNV78. A total of 221 of 2243 WE women (discovery: cases = 111; controls = 110; validation: cases = 651; controls = 1772) and 221 AJ women (cases = 121; controls = 110) were included from the UK study; the Israeli series consisted of 2045 AJ women (cases = 1331; controls = 714). EAFs were obtained from the Genome Aggregation Database. RESULTS: In the UK study, the mean SNV142 PRS demonstrated good calibration and discrimination in WE population, with mean PRS of 1.33 (95% CI 1.18-1.48) in cases and 1.01 (95% CI 0.89-1.13) in controls. In AJ women from Manchester, the mean PRS of 1.54 (1.38-1.70) in cases and 1.20 (1.08-1.32) in controls demonstrated good discrimination but overestimation of BC relative risk. After adjusting for EAFs for the AJ population, mean risk was corrected (mean SNV142 PRS cases = 1.30 [95% CI 1.16-1.44] and controls = 1.02 [95% CI 0.92-1.12]). This was recapitulated in the larger Israeli data set with good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.632 [95% CI 0.607-0.657] for SNV142). CONCLUSION: AJ women should not be given BC relative risk predictions based on PRSs calibrated to EAFs from the WE population. PRSs need to be recalibrated using AJ-derived EAFs. A simple recalibration using the mean PRS adjustment ratio likely performs well.

Uptake and efficacy of bilateral risk reducing surgery in unaffected female BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers.

BACKGROUND: Women testing positive for BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants have high lifetime risks of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer. The effectiveness of risk reducing surgery (RRS) has been demonstrated in numerous previous studies. We evaluated long-term uptake, timing and effectiveness of risk reducing mastectomy (RRM) and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in healthy BRCA1/2 carriers. METHODS: Women were prospectively followed up from positive genetic test (GT) result to censor date. χ² testing compared categorical variables; Cox regression model estimated HRs and 95% CI for BC/ovarian cancer cases associated with RRS, and impact on all-cause mortality; Kaplan-Meier curves estimated cumulative RRS uptake. The annual cancer incidence was estimated by women-years at risk. RESULTS: In total, 887 women were included in this analysis. Mean follow-up was 6.26 years (range=0.01-24.3; total=4685.4 women-years). RRS was performed in 512 women, 73 before GT. Overall RRM uptake was 57.9% and RRSO uptake was 78.6%. The median time from GT to RRM was 18.4 months, and from GT to RRSO-10.0 months. Annual BC incidence in the study population was 1.28%. Relative BC risk reduction (RRM versus non-RRM) was 94%. Risk reduction of ovarian cancer (RRSO versus non-RRSO) was 100%. CONCLUSION: Over a 24-year period, we observed an increasing number of women opting for RRS. We showed that the timing of RRS remains suboptimal, especially in women undergoing RRSO. Both RRM and RRSO showed a significant effect on relevant cancer risk reduction. However, there was no statistically significant RRSO protective effect on BC.

High likelihood of actionable pathogenic variant detection in breast cancer genes in women with very early onset breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: While the likelihood of identifying constitutional breast cancer-associated BRCA1, BRCA2 and TP53 pathogenic variants (PVs) increases with earlier diagnosis age, little is known about the correlation with age at diagnosis in other predisposition genes. Here, we assessed the contribution of known breast cancer-associated genes to very early onset disease. METHODS: Sequencing of BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53 and CHEK2 c.1100delC was undertaken in women with breast cancer diagnosed ≤30 years. Those testing negative were screened for PVs in a minimum of eight additional breast cancer-associated genes. Rates of PVs were compared with cases ≤30 years from the Prospective study of Outcomes in Sporadic vs Hereditary breast cancer (POSH) study. RESULTS: Testing 379 women with breast cancer aged ≤30 years identified 75 PVs (19.7%) in BRCA1, 35 (9.2%) in BRCA2, 22 (5.8%) in TP53 and 2 (0.5%) CHEK2 c.1100delC. Extended screening of 184 PV negative women only identified eight additional actionable PVs. BRCA1/2 PVs were more common in women aged 26-30 years than in younger women (p=0.0083) although the younger age group had rates more similar to those in the POSH cohort. Out of 26 women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) alone, most were high-grade and 11/26 (42.3%) had a PV (TP53=6, BRCA2=2, BRCA1=2, PALB2=1). This PV yield is similar to the 61 (48.8%) BRCA1/2 PVs identified in 125 women with triple-negative breast cancer. The POSH cohort specifically excluded pure DCIS which may explain lower TP53 PV rates in this group (1.7%). CONCLUSION: The rates of BRCA1, BRCA2 and TP53 PVs are high in very early onset breast cancer, with limited benefit from testing of additional breast cancer-associated genes.

Obesity at age 20 and weight gain during adulthood increase risk of total and premature all-cause mortality: findings from women attending breast screening in Manchester.

BACKGROUND: Obesity in early adulthood is associated with lower breast cancer rates in later life. This could be interpreted as a positive reinforcement of excess weight amongst younger women however, the wider implications of higher weights are less well known. This study examined the association between both obesity in early adulthood and body mass index (BMI) change through adulthood, and all-cause mortality. METHODS: The Predicting Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study recruited 57,902 women aged 46-73 years (median age 57.2, IQR 51.8-63.7 years) from the Greater Manchester National Health Service breast screening programme in North West England between 2009 and 2015. It was used to assess associations between BMI at 20 years and cohort entry with all-cause mortality ascertained via deaths recorded on the National Breast Screening System to June 2020. Hazard ratios were estimated using proportional hazards (Cox) regression adjusted for factors at entry to the cohort: age, deprivation, bilateral oophorectomy, hormone-replacement therapy, menopausal status, ethnicity, alcohol intake, physical activity, and BMI. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight (25-30 kg/m2) and obesity (> 30 kg/m2) were 10.4% and 2.5% respectively at 20 years, increasing to 35.2% and 25.9% respectively at cohort entry. After a mean 8.7 years follow-up we observed that overweight (HR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.10-1.47) and obesity (HR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.67-2.66) at 20 years had a higher mortality rate compared with healthy weight. Women who were underweight/healthy weight at 20 years and gained weight to obesity at entry had a slightly increased mortality rate compared with women who were underweight/healthy weight at both time points (HR 1.16, 95%CI = 1.02-1.32). Women with overweight (HR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.06-1.75) or obesity (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.45-2.48) at both 20 years and entry had a higher mortality rate than women who were underweight/healthy weight at both points. CONCLUSIONS: Women who self-reported overweight and obesity at 20 years had a shorter life expectancy in this cohort of women attending breast cancer screening. Weight gain from 20 years was common in this group. Girls and women should be supported to maintain a healthy weight throughout the lifespan to help increase life expectancy. Trial registration number NCT04359420, retrospectively registered 24/04/2020.

The importance of ethnicity: Are breast cancer polygenic risk scores ready for women who are not of White European origin?

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for disease risk stratification show great promise for application in general populations, but most are based on data from individuals of White European origin. We assessed two well validated PRS (SNP18, SNP143) in the Predicting-Risk-of-Cancer-At-Screening (PROCAS) study in North-West England for breast cancer prediction based on ethnicity. Overall, 9475 women without breast cancer at study entry, including 645 who subsequently developed invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ provided DNA. All were genotyped for SNP18 and a subset of 1868 controls were genotyped for SNP143. For White Europeans both PRS discriminated well between individuals with and without cancer. For n = 395 Black (n = 112), Asian (n = 119), mixed (n = 44) or Jewish (n = 120) women without cancer both PRS overestimated breast cancer risk, being most marked for women of Black and Jewish origin (P < .001). SNP143 resulted in a potential mean 40% breast cancer risk overestimation in the combined group of non-White/non-European origin. SNP-PRS that has been normalized based on White European ethnicity for breast cancer should not be used to predict risk in women of other ethnicities. There is an urgent need to develop PRS specific for other ethnicities, in order to widen access of this technology.

Breast cancer risk stratification in women of screening age: Incremental effects of adding mammographic density, polygenic risk, and a gene panel.

PURPOSE: There is great promise in breast cancer risk stratification to target screening and prevention. It is unclear whether adding gene panels to other risk tools improves breast cancer risk stratification and adds discriminatory benefit on a population basis. METHODS: In total, 10,025 of 57,902 women aged 46 to 73 years in the Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening study provided DNA samples. A case-control study was used to evaluate breast cancer risk assessment using polygenic risk scores (PRSs), cancer gene panel (n = 33), mammographic density (density residual [DR]), and risk factors collected using a self-completed 2-page questionnaire (Tyrer-Cuzick [TC] model version 8). In total, 525 cases and 1410 controls underwent gene panel testing and PRS calculation (18, 143, and/or 313 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]). RESULTS: Actionable pathogenic variants (PGVs) in BRCA1/2 were found in 1.7% of cases and 0.55% of controls, and overall PGVs were found in 6.1% of cases and 1.3% of controls. A combined assessment of TC8-DR-SNP313 and gene panel provided the best risk stratification with 26.1% of controls and 9.7% of cases identified at <1.4% 10-year risk and 9.01% of controls and 23.3% of cases at ≥8% 10-year risk. Because actionable PGVs were uncommon, discrimination was identical with/without gene panel (with/without: area under the curve = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.64-0.70). Only 7 of 17 PGVs in cases resulted in actionable risk category change. Extended case (n = 644)-control (n = 1779) series with TC8-DR-SNP143 identified 18.9% of controls and only 6.4% of stage 2+ cases at <1.4% 10-year risk and 20.7% of controls and 47.9% of stage 2+ cases at ≥5% 10-year risk. CONCLUSION: Further studies and economic analysis will determine whether adding panels to PRS is a cost-effective strategy for risk stratification.

Magnitude and attributed reasons for adult weight gain amongst women at increased risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Excess weight (BMI ≥25.0 kg/m2) and weight gain during adult life increase the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in women who are already at increased risk of the disease. Reasons for weight gain in this population can inform strategies for weight gain prevention. METHODS: Baseline data from six weight loss studies for women at increased risk of breast cancer (age 31-74 years) were collated. Self-reported patterns of adult weight gain and attributed reasons for weight gain before joining the weight loss study were reported for the whole population and secondary analyses reported the different reasons given by women with/without children, pre-/peri- or postmenopausal, and moderate/high risk of breast cancer. RESULTS: Five hundred and one women with a mean age of 47.6 (SD 8.4) years and median BMI of 29.9 (IQR 27.0-34.7) kg/m2 were included in the analyses. The median weight gain since young adulthood (18-20 years) was 20.5 (IQR 14.0-29.7) kg or 33.7 (23.4-50.2) % and median annual weight gain was 0.73 (IQR 0.51-1.08) kg. Four hundred and one women were included in analysis of weight gain reasons. The main five self-reported reasons for weight gain were children / childcare / pregnancy (stated by 55.9% of participants), followed by inactivity (41.9%), comfort or boredom eating (38.2%), portion size (32.4%), and stress (27.4%). Reasons appeared broadly similar between the different groups in the secondary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We have highlighted common reasons for weight gain in women at increased risk of breast cancer. This will inform future interventions to support women to avoid weight gain in adulthood which would reduce the burden of breast cancer. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NIHR NRR N0226132725, ISRCTN52913838, ISRCTN77916487, ISRCTN91372184, ISRCTN10803394 and ISRCTN16431108.

Specialist oncological surgery for removal of the ovaries and fallopian tubes in BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers may reduce primary peritoneal cancer risk to very low levels.

Risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRBSO) is highly effective for the prevention of high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers (PVCs), but does not completely eliminate future risk of primary peritoneal cancer (PPC). The requirement to completely remove fallopian tubes at RRBSO and carefully exclude occult cancer/serous tubal intraepithelial carcinoma (STIC) lesions may not have been appreciated historically. We calculated rates of HGSOC and PPC in confirmed BRCA1/2 PVCs registered on the regional database in those who did (cases) and did not (controls) undergo RRBSO after genetic testing. Expected annual rates of ovarian/peritoneal cancer were 1% for BRCA1 ≥ 35 years and 0.5% for BRCA2 ≥ 45 years. Follow-up before 35/45 years was "risk free" and lead time excluded RRBSO <35 years and <45 years for BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. Women were followed from personal mutation report (controls) or RRBSO (cases) to death, ovarian/peritoneal cancer or last follow-up, whichever was sooner. In total, 891 cases (BRCA1 = 468, BRCA2 = 423) and 1302 controls had follow-up ≥35 years (BRCA1 = 736) and ≥45 years (BRCA2 = 566), respectively, over a total of 7261.1 risk eligible years (mean = 8.15 years). Twenty-one occult ovarian cancers were found at RRBSO (2.4%), 16 at stage 1. Post RRBSO, 56.97 ovarian/peritoneal cancers were expected but only 3 were observed (HR = 0.053; 95% CI = 0.013-0.14), with combined Kaplan-Meier analysis HR = 0.029 (95% CI = 0.009-0.100, P < .001). Risk reduction was greater in specialist (HR = 0.03; 95% CI = 0.001-0.13) compared to non-specialist centres (HR = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02-0.37) (P = .07). In controls, 23.35 ovarian/peritoneal cancers were expected with 32 observed (HR = 1.37; 95% CI = 0.95-1.91). RRBSO <35/<45 years reduces the risk of ovarian/peritoneal cancer by 95% in BRCA1/2 PVCs and may be greater in specialist centres.

Breast cancer incidence and early diagnosis in a family history risk and prevention clinic: 33-year experience in 14,311 women.

PURPOSE: Women at increased familial breast cancer risk have been offered screening starting at an earlier age and increased frequency than national Screening Programmes for over 30 years. There are limited data on longer-term largescale implementation of this approach on cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Women at our institution at ≥ 17% lifetime breast cancer risk have been offered enhanced screening with annual mammography starting at age 35 or 5-years younger than youngest affected relative, with upper age limit 50 for moderate and 60 for high-risk. Breast cancer pathology, stage and receptor status were assessed as well as survival from cancer diagnosis by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Overall 14,311 women were seen and assessed for breast cancer risk, with 649 breast cancers occurring in 129,119 years follow up (post-prevalent annual incidence = 4.55/1000). Of 323/394 invasive breast cancers occurring whilst on enhanced screening, most were lymph-node negative (72.9%), T1 (≤ 20 mm, 73.2%) and stage-1 (61.4%), 126/394 stage2-4 (32%). 10-year breast cancer specific survival was 91.3% (95% CI 87.4-94.0) better than the 75.9% (95% CI 74.9-77.0) published for England in 2013-2017. As expected, survival was significantly better for women with screen detected cancers (p < 0.001). Ten-year survival was particularly good for those diagnosed ≤ 40 at 93.8% (n = 75; 95% CI 84.2-97.6). Women with lobular breast cancers had worse 10-year survival at 85.9% (95% CI 66.7-94.5). Breast cancer specific survival was good for 119 BRCA1/2 carriers with 20-year survival in BRCA1:91.2% (95% CI 77.8-96.6) and 83.8% (62.6-93.5) for BRCA2. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted breast screening in women aged 30-60 years at increased familial risk is associated with good long-term survival that is substantially better than expected from population data.

Clinical utility of testing for PALB2 and CHEK2 c.1100delC in breast and ovarian cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate the contribution of PALB2 pathogenic gene variants (PGVs, PALB2_PGV) and the CHEK2 c.1100delC (CHEK2_1100delC) PGV to familial breast and ovarian cancer, and PALB2_PGV associated breast cancer pathology. METHODS: Outcomes of germline PALB2_PGV and CHEK2_1100delC testing were recorded in 3,127 women with histologically confirmed diagnoses of invasive breast cancer, carcinoma in situ, or epithelial nonmucinous ovarian cancer, and 1,567 female controls. Breast cancer pathology was recorded in PALB2_PGV cases from extended families. RESULTS: Thirty-five PALB2 and 44 CHEK2_1100delC PGVs were detected in patients (odds ratio [OR] PALB2 breast-ovarian = 5.90 [95% CI: 1.92-18.36], CHEK2 breast-ovarian = 4.46 [95% CI: 1.86-10.46], PALB2 breast = 6.16 [95% CI: 1.98-19.21], CHEK2 breast = 4.89 [95% CI: 2.01-11.34]). Grade 3 ER-positive HER2-negative, grade 3 and triple negative (TN) tumors were enriched in cases with PALB2 PGVs compared with all breast cancers known to our service (respectively: 15/43, 254/1,843, P = 0.0005; 28/37, 562/1,381, P = 0.0001; 12/43, 204/1,639, P < 0.0001). PALB2_PGV likelihood increased with increasing Manchester score (MS) (MS < 15 = 17/1,763, MS 20-39 = 11/520, P = 0.04) but not for CHEK2_1100delC (MS < 15 = 29/1,762, MS 20-39 = 4/520). PALB2 PGVs showed perfect segregation in 20/20 first-degree relatives with breast cancer, compared with 7/13 for CHEK2_1100delC (P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: PALB2 PGVs and CHEK2_1100delC together account for ~2.5% of familial breast/ovarian cancer risk. PALB2 PGVs are associated with grade 3, TN, and grade 3 ER-positive HER2-negative breast tumors.

Uptake of pre-symptomatic testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2 is age, gender, offspring and time-dependent.

BACKGROUND: Genetic testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variants (PVs) has been available in North West England since 1995. We assessed uptake of pre-symptomatic testing in 1564 families with PVs over a 24.5year follow-up (FU) period. METHODS: First-degree relatives (FDRs) in families with BRCA1 or BRCA2 PVs were eligible from date of index family report if unaffected by a relevant cancer and alive at report date. FDRs were censored as not having undergone a pre-symptomatic test at diagnosis of a relevant cancer, date of death, age 93 or 30/03/2019. Time to uptake of pre-symptomatic testing was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves, by gender and children. RESULTS: 2554 male and 3115 female FDRs were eligible. Overall uptake was 775 (30.3%) in men and 1935 (62.1%) in women. This increased at 15 years to 33.6% and 67.9%, and continued to rise until 24 years (p<0.001). For women, the 29-year to 39-year age group had the highest uptake at 10 years FU (72.5%; p<0.01), whereas the 50-year to 59-year age group was highest in men (37.2%; p<0.01). Women <18 years at the time of familial variant identification had lower initial uptake, but this rose to >80% by 15 years. Uptake was higher in parous women (p<0.001) and in men with daughters (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Uptake of BRCA1/2 pre-symptomatic testing is age, gender and time-dependent, and higher in women with children and men with daughters.

Mammographic density change in a cohort of premenopausal women receiving tamoxifen for breast cancer prevention over 5 years.

BACKGROUND: A decrease in breast density due to tamoxifen preventive therapy might indicate greater benefit from the drug. It is not known whether mammographic density continues to decline after 1 year of therapy, or whether measures of breast density change are sufficiently stable for personalised recommendations. METHODS: Mammographic density was measured annually over up to 5 years in premenopausal women with no previous diagnosis of breast cancer but at increased risk of breast cancer attending a family-history clinic in Manchester, UK (baseline 2010-2013). Tamoxifen (20 mg/day) for prevention was prescribed for up to 5 years in one group; the other group did not receive tamoxifen and were matched by age. Fully automatic methods were used on mammograms over the 5-year follow-up: three area-based measures (NN-VAS, Stratus, Densitas) and one volumetric (Volpara). Additionally, percentage breast density at baseline and first follow-up mammograms was measured visually. The size of density declines at the first follow-up mammogram and thereafter was estimated using a linear mixed model adjusted for age and body mass index. The stability of density change at 1 year was assessed by evaluating mean squared error loss from predictions based on individual or mean density change at 1 year. RESULTS: Analysis used mammograms from 126 healthy premenopausal women before and as they received tamoxifen for prevention (median age 42 years) and 172 matched controls (median age 41 years), with median 3 years follow-up. There was a strong correlation between percentage density measures used on the same mammogram in both the tamoxifen and no tamoxifen groups (all correlation coeficients > 0.8). Tamoxifen reduced mean breast density in year 1 by approximately 17-25% of the inter-quartile range of four automated percentage density measures at baseline, and from year 2, it decreased further by approximately 2-7% per year. Predicting change at 2 years using individual change at 1 year was approximately 60-300% worse than using mean change at 1year. CONCLUSIONS: All measures showed a consistent and large average tamoxifen-induced change in density over the first year, and a continued decline thereafter. However, these measures of density change at 1 year were not stable on an individual basis.

A case-control evaluation of 143 single nucleotide polymorphisms for breast cancer risk stratification with classical factors and mammographic density.

Panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) stratify risk for breast cancer in women from the general population, but studies are needed assess their use in a fully comprehensive model including classical risk factors, mammographic density and more than 100 SNPs associated with breast cancer. A case-control study was designed (1,668 controls, 405 cases) in women aged 47-73 years attending routine screening in Manchester UK, and enrolled in a wider study to assess methods for risk assessment. Risk from classical questionnaire risk factors was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick model; mean percentage visual mammographic density was scored by two independent readers. DNA extracted from saliva was genotyped at selected SNPs using the OncoArray. A predefined polygenic risk score based on 143 SNPs was calculated (SNP143). The odds ratio (OR, and 95% confidence interval, CI) per interquartile range (IQ-OR) of SNP143 was estimated unadjusted and adjusted for Tyrer-Cuzick and breast density. Secondary analysis assessed risk by oestrogen receptor (ER) status. The primary polygenic risk score was well calibrated (O/E OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.86-1.34) and accuracy was retained after adjustment for Tyrer-Cuzick risk and mammographic density (IQ-OR unadjusted 2.12, 95% CI% 1.75-2.42; adjusted 2.06, 95% CI 1.75-2.42). SNP143 was a risk factor for ER+ and ER- breast cancer (adjusted IQ-OR, ER+ 2.11, 95% CI 1.78-2.51; ER- 1.81, 95% CI 1.16-2.84). In conclusion, polygenic risk scores based on a large number of SNPs improve risk stratification in combination with classical risk factors and mammographic density, and SNP143 was similarly predictive for ER-positive and ER-negative disease.

Breast cancer in neurofibromatosis 1: survival and risk of contralateral breast cancer in a five country cohort study.

PURPOSE: Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is an autosomal dominant condition caused by pathogenic variants of the NF1 gene. A markedly increased risk of breast cancer is associated with NF1. We have determined the breast cancer survival and risk of contralateral breast cancer in NF1. METHODS: We included 142 women with NF1 and breast cancer from five cohorts in Europe and 335 women without NF1 screened for other familial breast cancers. Risk of contralateral breast cancer and death were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis with delayed entry. RESULTS: One hundred forty-two women with NF1 were diagnosed for breast cancer at a median age of 46.9 years (range 27.0-84.3 years) and then followed up for 1235 person-years (mean = 8.70 years). Twelve women had contralateral breast cancer with a rate of 10.5 per 1000 years. Cumulative risk for contralateral breast cancer was 26.5% in 20 years. Five and 10-year all-cause survival was 64.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 54.8-76.8) and 49.8% (95%CI = 39.3-63.0). Breast cancer-specific 10-year survival was 64.2% (95% CI = 53.5-77.0%) compared with 91.2% (95% CI = 87.3-95.2%) in the non-NF1 age-matched population at increased risk of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Women with NF1 have a substantial contralateral breast cancer incidence and poor survival. Early start of breast cancer screening may be a way to improve the survival.