Prevalence of extra-pulmonary tuberculosis in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The burden of extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is not well quantified in TB endemic countries such as those in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to quantify that burden via a systematic review of the prevalence of EPTB in African countries. METHODS: Studies were retrieved by searching five databases; 105 studies published between 1990 and 2023 were included. The studies described the prevalence of EPTB among the general population (4 studies), TB patients (68) and patients with other conditions, including HIV (15), meningitis (3), renal failure (3) and other comorbidities, some of which are cancer (12). Due to the low number of studies reporting EPTB in patients with conditions other than TB, the meta-analysis was performed on studies reporting on EPTB among TB patients (68 studies). Meta-analysis was performed on the 68 studies (271,073 participants) using a random-effects model to estimate the pooled prevalence of EPTB. Meta-regression was used to explore possible explanations for heterogeneity according to regions and time periods. RESULTS: The pooled prevalence of EPTB among TB patients was 26% (95% CI 23-29%). There was substantial heterogeneity of prevalence for the five African regions. The Eastern region had the highest prevalence of 32% (95% CI 28-37%) and the lowest in Western Africa, 16% (95% CI 10-24%). There was no significant difference in the prevalence of EPTB between the 3 eleven-year time periods. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review and meta-analysis give insight into the burden of EPTB in Africa. This review could inform clinical and programmatic practices-a higher suspicion index for clinicians and more effort for better services. This could contribute to efforts aiming to end TB, which have historically been focused on PTB.Coordinated efforts that target both EPTB and PTB are needed.

Severe cyclones and sex-specific birth outcomes in Queensland, Australia: An interrupted time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: A male is less adaptable to biological stressors than a female fetus with consequent higher morbidity and mortality. Adverse birth outcomes increase and male livebirths decrease after environmental disasters, economic crises, and terrorist events. We hypothesized the ratio of male to female livebirths would decrease in areas affected by severe tropical cyclones (TCs) in Queensland, Australia. Additionally, in male livebirths, there would be an increase in preterm and low birthweight births. Lastly, we hypothesized that the pregnancy stage at which exposure occurred would modify the association between TC exposure and observed outcomes. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis was used to analyze Queensland administrative birth records from July 2007 to June 2018 for significant changes in the sex ratio at birth, measured as the proportion of male livebirths. Adjusted generalized linear models were fitted to births in areas affected by two category five TCs: cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Marcia (February 2015). To explore male mortality and morbidity risk, additional analysis was conducted on the proportion of male stillborn, low birthweight, and preterm births. The association between estimated pregnancy stage during the TC and the proportion of male births was also analyzed. RESULTS: Contrary to our hypothesis, increases in the proportion of male livebirths were observed following early-pregnancy exposure to cyclone Yasi and mid-pregnancy exposure to Marcia, although the latter was not statistically significant. No significant changes were observed in proportions of male stillborn, low birthweight, and preterm births. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a significant association between severe TCs and sex ratio at birth. The stage of pregnancy at which maternal stressors were experienced modified this association. Among people exposed in early to mid-pregnancy, the proportion of male births was higher. This may be because of differential loss of females in utero. Studying sex differences in birth outcomes provides insight into in utero vulnerabilities associated with environmental stressors. Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. Understanding fetal vulnerability to environmental stressors will provide crucial information supporting early life health interventions that mitigate the immediate and long-term effects.

Use of psychotropic medications in adults with intellectual disability: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study presents the proportion of adults with intellectual disability using psychotropic medications including antipsychotics, antidepressants, anxiolytics, hypnotics and sedatives, and psychostimulants. METHODS: A search was performed in PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus up to 31 December 2021. Articles were included if they reported the proportion of adults with intellectual disability using psychotropic medications. Frequency of use was estimated using a random effects meta-analysis. Meta-regression analysis was used to assess the association between study-level characteristics and variability in estimates, when heterogeneity was considerable. RESULTS: Twenty-four articles were included in pooled analysis. The pooled prevalence of psychotropic medications was 41% (95% confidence interval: 35-46%). Pooled prevalences of subclasses were as follows: antipsychotics 31% (27-35%), antidepressants 14% (9-19%), anxiolytics 9% (4-15%), hypnotics/sedatives 5% (2-8%), and psychostimulants 1% (1-2%). Heterogeneity was considerable between studies, except for psychostimulants. There was no significant association between assessed characteristics and variability in prevalence estimates. CONCLUSION: Two-fifths of adults with intellectual disability were prescribed psychotropic medications. Antipsychotics and antidepressants were used by one-third and one-seventh of adults, respectively. There was considerable variability between studies, and further investigation is required to determine the source of variability. More studies are needed to better characterise prescribed psychotropic medications, including effectiveness and adverse effects, to ensure appropriate use of these drugs.

Characteristics associated with frequent health system use by Australian adults with intellectual disability: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In a cohort of adults with intellectual disability who were followed for up to 16-years, we investigated characteristics associated with frequent emergency department (ED) presentations, hospitalisation, and psychiatric care. METHOD: Community-dwelling adults with intellectual disability residing in Queensland, Australia, were followed from 1999 to 2015. Healthcare presentations were extracted from administrative databases. Adults who presented frequently were identified and characteristics associated with frequent presentations were identified. RESULTS: Data from 445 adults were analysed. Chronic disease and challenging behaviour were associated with frequent ED presentations (adjusted odds ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.1-3.0 and aOR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.2-3.9 respectively). Chronic disease and severe/profound intellectual disability were associated with frequent hospitalisations (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.2-3.2 and aOR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.2-3.3 respectively). Psychotropic medication use was associated with frequent psychiatric presentations (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.0-3.4). CONCLUSIONS: Adults at high risk of frequent healthcare presentations should be identified for programmes of optimising health system use, and potentially improving health care quality.

Identifying community chronic kidney disease risk profile utilising general practice clinical records and spatial analysis: approach to inform policy and practice.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) causes a significant health burden in Australia, and up to 50% of Australians with CKD remain undiagnosed. AIMS: To estimate the 5-year risk for CKD from general practice (GP) clinical records and to investigate the spatial variation and hot spots of CKD risk in an Australian community. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was designed using de-identified GP clinical data recorded from 2010 to 2015. A total of 16 GP participated in this study from West Adelaide, Australia. We used health records of 36 565 patients aged 35-74 years, with no prior history of CKD. The 5-year estimated CKD risk was calculated using the QKidney algorithm. Individuals' risk score was aggregated to Statistical Area Level 1 to predict the community CKD risk. A spatial hotspot analysis was applied to identify the communities with greater risk. RESULTS: The mean estimated 5-year risk for CKD in the sample population was 0.95% (0.93-0.97). Overall, 2.4% of the study population was at high risk of CKD. Significant hot spots and cold spots of CKD risk were identified within the study region. Hot spots were associated with lower socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a new approach to explore the spatial variation of CKD risk at a community level, and implementation of a risk prediction model into a clinical setting may aid in early detection and increase disease awareness in regions of unmet CKD care.

Pediatric hospital admissions in Indigenous children: a population-based study in remote Australia.

BACKGROUND: We analysed hospital admissions of a predominantly Aboriginal cohort of children in the remote Fitzroy Valley in Western Australia during the first 7 years of life. METHODS: All children born between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2003 and living in the Fitzroy Valley in 2009-2010 were eligible to participate in the Lililwan Project. Of 134 eligible children, 127 (95%) completed Stage 1 (interviews of caregivers and medical record review) in 2011 and comprised our cohort. Lifetime (0-7 years) hospital admission data were available and included the dates, and reasons for admission, and comorbidities. Conditions were coded using ICD-10-AM discharge codes. RESULTS: Of the 127 children, 95.3% were Indigenous and 52.8% male. There were 314 admissions for 424 conditions in 89 (70.0%) of 127 children. The 89 children admitted had a median of five admissions (range 1-12). Hospitalization rates were similar for both genders (p = 0.4). Of the admissions, 108 (38.6%) were for 56 infants aged <12 months (median = 2.5, range = 1-8). Twelve of these admissions were in neonates (aged 0-28 days). Primary reasons for admission (0-7 years) were infections of the lower respiratory tract (27.4%), gastrointestinal system (22.7%), and upper respiratory tract (11.4%), injury (7.0%), and failure to thrive (5.4%). Comorbidities, particularly upper respiratory tract infections (18.1%), failure to thrive (13.6%), and anaemia (12.7%), were common. In infancy, primary cause for admission were infections of the lower respiratory tract (40.8%), gastrointestinal (25.9%) and upper respiratory tract (9.3%). Comorbidities included upper respiratory tract infections (33.3%), failure to thrive (18.5%) and anaemia (18.5%). CONCLUSION: In the Fitzroy Valley 70.0% of children were hospitalised at least once before age 7 years and over one third of admissions were in infants. Infections were the most common reason for admission in all age groups but comorbidities were common and may contribute to need for admission. Many hospitalizations were feasibly preventable. High admission rates reflect disadvantage, remote location and limited access to primary healthcare and outpatient services. Ongoing public health prevention initiatives including breast feeding, vaccination, healthy diet, hygiene and housing improvements are crucial, as is training of Aboriginal Health Workers to increase services in remote communities.

Comparison of characteristics and mortality in multidrug resistant (MDR) and non-MDR tuberculosis patients in China.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a cohort study to compare the characteristics of MDR-TB with non-MDR-TB patients and to measure long term (9-year) mortality rate and determine factors associated with death in China. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of 250 TB cases from a 2001 survey to compare 100 MDR-TB patients with 150 non-MDR-TB patients who were treated in 2001-2002. Baseline attributes extracted from the records were compared between the two cohorts and long-term mortality and risk factors were determined at nine-year follow-up in 2010. RESULTS: Among the 234 patients successfully followed up, 63 (26.9%) were female and 171 (73.1 %) were male. MDR-TB patients had poorer socioeconomic status compared to non-MDRTB. Nine years after the diagnosis of TB, 69 or 29.5 % of the 234 patients had died (32 or 21.6 % of non-MDR-TB versus 37 or 43.0 % of MDR-TB) and the overall mortality rate was 39/1000 per year (PY) (27/1000 PY among non-MDR versus 63/1000 PY among MDR-TB). Factors associated with death included: MDR status (hazard ratio (HR): 1.86; CI: 1.09-3.13), limited education of primary school or lower (HR: 2.51; CI 1.34-4.70) and received TB treatment during the nine-year period (HR 1.82; 95 % CI 1.02-3.26). CONCLUSIONS: MDR-TB was a strong predictor for poor long-term outcome. High quality diagnosis and treatment must be ensured. Greater reimbursement or free treatment may be needed to provide access for the poor and vulnerable populations, and to increase treatment compliance.

Traditional healers and the potential for collaboration with the national tuberculosis programme in Vanuatu: results from a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu. Our objective was to assess knowledge, attitudes and practice of traditional healers who treat lung diseases and tuberculosis (TB), including their willingness to collaborate with the national TB programme. METHODS: This was a descriptive study using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative analysis was based on the responses provided to closed-ended questions, and we used descriptive analysis (frequencies) to describe the knowledge, attitudes and practice of the traditional healers towards TB. Qualitative analysis was based on open-ended questions permitting fuller explanations. We used thematic analysis and developed a posteriori inductive categories to draw original and unbiased conclusions. RESULTS: Nineteen traditional healers were interviewed; 18 were male. Fifteen of the healers reported treating short wind (a local term to describe lung, chest or breathing illnesses) which they attributed to food, alcohol, smoking or pollution from contact with menstrual blood, and a range of other physical and spiritual causes. Ten said that they would treat TB with leaf medicine. Four traditional healers said that they would not treat TB. Twelve of the healers had referred someone to a hospital for a strong wet-cough and just over half of the healers (9) reported a previous collaboration with the Government health care system. Eighteen of the traditional healers would be willing to collaborate with the national TB programme, with or without compensation. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional healers in Vanuatu treat lung diseases including TB. Many have previously collaborated with the Government funded health care system, and almost all of them indicated a willingness to collaborate with the national TB programme. The engagement of traditional healers in TB management should be considered, using an evidence based and culturally sensitive approach.

Tuberculosis patients' knowledge and beliefs about tuberculosis: a mixed methods study from the Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu.

BACKGROUND: The setting for this study was the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, an archipelago of 82 islands, located in the South Pacific Ocean. Our objective was to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices of tuberculosis (TB) patients towards TB. METHODS: This was a descriptive study using qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative analysis was based on the responses provided to closed questions, and we present frequencies to describe the TB patients' knowledge, attitudes and practice relating to TB. Qualitative analysis was based on open questions permitting fuller explanations. We used thematic analysis and developed a posteriori inductive categories to draw conclusions. RESULTS: Thirty five TB patients were interviewed; 22 (63%) were male. They attributed TB to cigarettes, kava, alcohol, contaminated food, sharing eating utensils and "kastom" (the local term for the traditional way of life, but also for sorcery). Most (94%) did not attribute TB to a bacterial cause. However, almost all TB patients (89%) thought that TB was best treated at a hospital with antibiotics. Three quarters (74%) experienced stigma after their TB diagnosis. Seeking health care from a traditional healer was common; 54% of TB patients stated that they would first consult a traditional healer for any illness. When seeking a diagnosis for signs and symptoms of TB, 34% first consulted a traditional healer. Patients cited cost, distance and beliefs about TB causation as reasons for first consulting a traditional healer or going to the hospital. Of the TB patients who consulted a traditional healer first, there was an average of two weeks delay before they consulted the health service. In some cases, however, the delay was up to six years. CONCLUSION: The majority of the TB patients interviewed did not attribute TB to a bacterial cause. Consulting a traditional healer for health care, including while seeking a diagnosis for TB symptoms, was common and may have delayed diagnosis. People require better information about TB to correct commonly held misperceptions about the disease. Traditional healers could also be engaged with the national TB programme, in order to refer people with signs and symptoms of TB to the nearest health service.

Assessing the threat of chikungunya virus emergence in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a major threat to Australia given the distribution of competent vectors, and the large number of travellers returning from endemic regions. We describe current knowledge of CHIKV importations into Australia, and quantify reported viraemic cases, with the aim of facilitating the formulation of public health policy and ensuring maintenance of blood safety. METHODS: Cases reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) from 2002 to 2012 were analysed by place, month of acquisition, and place of residence. Rates of chikungunya importation were estimated based on reported cases and on the numbers of short-term movements. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2012, there were 168 cases of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) imported into Australia. Victoria and New South Wales had the largest number of notifications. The main sources were Indonesia, India and Malaysia. The number of cases increased from 2008 to reach a peak in 2010 (n=64; 40%). Although Indonesia accounted for the majority of CHIKV notifications in Australia, travel from India had the highest CHIKV importation rate (number of imported cases per 100,000 travellers). CONCLUSIONS: The Australian population is increasingly at risk from CHIKV. Arrivals from endemic countries have increased concurrently with vector incursions via imported goods, as well as via local movement from the Torres Strait to North Queensland ports. An outbreak of CHIKV could have a significant impact on health, the safety of the blood supply and on tourism. Case and vector surveillance as well as population health responses are crucial for minimising any potential impact of CHIKV establishment in Australia.

"My Autism is Linked with Everything": at the Crossroads of Autism and Diabetes.

Autistic adults experience stark health disparities and difficulties accessing health care. Their realities of managing complex health conditions are unknown. Our research explored the experience of Autistic adults self-managing diabetes. Interviews with Autistic adults with diabetes and their support people were thematically analysed to identify three key themes. The Autistic experience influenced diabetes self-management, including autism-unique challenges and strengths. Participants prioritised avoiding Autistic burnout over diabetes self-management; mitigating the psychosocial pressures of neurotypical systems took precedence. Health professionals often separated autism and diabetes subsequently overlooking key factors impacting diabetes self-management. To better meet the needs of Autistic adults, diabetes care and health management more broadly should be considered within the context of autism, including supports for self-management during Autistic burnout.

Prediction of Ross River Virus Incidence Using Mosquito Data in Three Cities of Queensland, Australia.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, with Queensland recording high incidence rates (with an annual average incidence rate of 0.05% over the last 20 years). Accurate prediction of RRV incidence is critical for disease management and control. Many factors, including mosquito abundance, climate, weather, geographical factors, and socio-economic indices, can influence the RRV transmission cycle and thus have potential utility as predictors of RRV incidence. We collected mosquito data from the city councils of Brisbane, Redlands, and Mackay in Queensland, together with other meteorological and geographical data. Predictors were selected to build negative binomial generalised linear models for prediction. The models demonstrated excellent performance in Brisbane and Redlands but were less satisfactory in Mackay. Mosquito abundance was selected in the Brisbane model and can improve the predictive performance. Sufficient sample sizes of continuous mosquito data and RRV cases were essential for accurate and effective prediction, highlighting the importance of routine vector surveillance for disease management and control. Our results are consistent with variation in transmission cycles across different cities, and our study demonstrates the usefulness of mosquito surveillance data for predicting RRV incidence within small geographical areas.

Variation in hospital morbidities in an Australian neonatal intensive care unit network.

OBJECTIVE: There is an expectation among the public and within the profession that the performance and outcome of neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) should be comparable between centres with a similar setting. This study aims to benchmark and audit performance variation in a regional Australian network of eight NICUs. DESIGN: Cohort study using prospectively collected data. SETTING: All eight perinatal centres in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. PATIENTS: All live-born infants born between 23+0 and 31+6 weeks gestation admitted to one of the tertiary perinatal centres from 2007 to 2020 (n=12 608). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Early and late confirmed sepsis, intraventricular haemorrhage, medically and surgically treated patent ductus arteriosus, chronic lung disease (CLD), postnatal steroid for CLD, necrotising enterocolitis, retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), surgery for ROP, hospital mortality and home oxygen. RESULTS: NICUs showed variations in maternal and neonatal characteristics and resources. The unadjusted funnel plots for neonatal outcomes showed apparent variation with multiple centres outside the 99.8% control limits of the network values. The hierarchical model-based risk-adjustment accounting for differences in patient characteristics showed that discharged home with oxygen is the only outcome above the 99.8% control limits. CONCLUSIONS: Hierarchical model-based risk-adjusted estimates of morbidity rates plotted on funnel plots provide a robust and straightforward visual graphical tool for presenting variations in outcome performance to detect aberrations in healthcare delivery and guide timely intervention. We propose using hierarchical model-based risk adjustment and funnel plots in real or near real-time to detect aberrations and start timely intervention.

Health services for aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children in remote Australia: A scoping review.

In Australia, there is a significant gap between health outcomes in Indigenous and non-Indigenous children, which may relate to inequity in health service provision, particularly in remote areas. The aim was to conduct a scoping review to identify publications in the academic and grey literature and describe 1) Existing health services for Indigenous children in remote Australia and service use, 2) Workforce challenges in remote settings, 3) Characteristics of an effective health service, and 4) Models of care and solutions. Electronic databases of medical/health literature were searched (Jan 1990 to May 2021). Grey literature was identified through investigation of websites, including of local, state and national health departments. Identified papers (n = 1775) were screened and duplicates removed. Information was extracted and summarised from 116 papers that met review inclusion criteria (70 from electronic medical databases and 45 from the grey literature). This review identified that existing services struggle to meet demand. Barriers to effective child health service delivery in remote Australia include availability of trained staff, limited services, and difficult access. Aboriginal and Community Controlled Health Organisations are effective and should receive increased support including increased training and remuneration for Aboriginal Health Workers. Continuous quality assessment of existing and future programs will improve quality; as will measures that reflect aboriginal ways of knowing and being, that go beyond traditional Key Performance Indicators. Best practice models for service delivery have community leadership and collaboration. Increased resources with a focus on primary prevention and health promotion are essential.

Reasons for Encounters and Comorbidities in Adolescents with Intellectual Disability in General Practice: A Retrospective Analysis of Data from the Ask Study.

Adolescents with intellectual disability have substantial health needs. This retrospective analysis of data from the Ask Study describes reasons for primary care encounters and the prevalence and incidence of chronic physical and mental conditions among a cohort of community-dwelling adolescents with intellectual disability. Participants attended secondary schools in southern Queensland, Australia. Primary care data were extracted from primary care records. Demographic and health information was collected using carer-completed questionnaires. Reasons for primary care encounters, disease prevalence at age 16 years, and disease incidence through adolescence were reported. Data were obtained for 432 adolescents with intellectual disability (median follow-up: 4.1 years). Skin problems (29.4 per 100 encounters) were the most common reason patients presented for primary care, followed by psychological and behavioural problems (14.4 per 100 encounters) and musculoskeletal problems (13.8 per 100 encounters). Conditions with the highest prevalence were autism spectrum disorder (18.6%) and asthma (18.1%). The prevalence of epilepsy, visual impairment, and cerebral palsy were 14.7, 11.1, and 8.0%, respectively. Gastroesophageal reflux had the highest incidence (9.4 cases per 1000 person-years). Adolescents with intellectual disability have significant healthcare needs, which general practitioners need to be aware of and address. Study findings should inform the development of training programs for general practitioners.

Physical and mental health among caregivers: findings from a cross-sectional study of Open University students in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Caregivers constitute an important informal workforce, often undervalued, facing challenges to maintain their caring role, health and wellbeing. Little is known about caregivers in middle-income countries like Thailand. This study investigates the physical and mental health of Thai adult caregivers. METHODS: This report derives from distance-learning students working and residing throughout Thailand and recruited for a health-risk transition study in 2005 (N=87,134) from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University. The cohort follow-up questionnaire in 2009 (N = 60,569) includes questions on caregiver status which were not available in 2005; accordingly, this study is confined to analysis of the 2009 data. We report cross-sectional associations between caregiver status and health. RESULTS: Among the study participants in 2009, 27.5% reported being part-time caregivers and 6.6% reported being full-time caregivers. Compared to male non-caregivers, being a part-time or full-time male caregiver was associated with lower back pain (covariate-Adjusted Odds Ratios, AOR 1.36 and 1.67), with poor psychological health (AOR 1.16 and 1.68), but not with poor self-assessed health. Compared to female non-caregivers, being a part- or full-time female caregiver was associated with lower back pain (AOR 1.47 and 1.84), psychological distress (AOR 1.32 and 1.52), and poor self-assessed health (AOR 1.21 and 1.34). CONCLUSIONS: Adult caregivers in Thailand experienced a consistent adverse physical and mental health burden. A dose-response effect was evident, with odds ratios higher for full-time caregivers than for part-time, and non-caregivers. Our findings should raise awareness of caregivers, their unmet needs, and support required in Thailand and other similar middle-income countries.

Association between severe cyclone events and birth outcomes in Queensland, Australia, 2008-2018: a population based retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Investigate an association between severe tropical cyclones (TCs) and birth outcomes in an Australian population. METHODS: We analysed over 600,000 singleton livebirths collected through the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection between 2008 and 2018. We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) of adverse birth outcomes using logistic multi-level modelling. RESULTS: Exposure to TCs in early pregnancy was associated with significantly higher odds of preterm births in affected compared to unaffected areas during the TC year [OR=1.28, 95%CI=1.11, 1.49, p=0.001] and slightly significant higher odds in affected areas during TC years compared to non-TC years. Significantly higher odds of low birthweight births were associated with mid-pregnancy exposure to cyclone Marcia [OR=1.62, 95%CI=1.00, 2.40, p=0.016] . CONCLUSIONS: Findings aligned with studies demonstrating an association between exposure to environmental stressors in early to mid-pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: There is limited research into TCs and perinatal health in Australia despite most of the population residing along coastlines and TCs presenting one of the nation's most devastating weather events. This study will inform public health practice and contribute to further research into mitigating environmental risks faced by pregnant women.

Prediction of Ross River virus incidence in Queensland, Australia: building and comparing models.

Transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) is influenced by climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Accurate and robust predictions based on these factors are necessary for disease prevention and control. However, the complicated transmission cycle and the characteristics of RRV notification data present challenges. Studies to compare model performance are lacking. In this study, we used RRV notification data and exposure data from 2001 to 2020 in Queensland, Australia, and compared ten models (including generalised linear models, zero-inflated models, and generalised additive models) to predict RRV incidence in different regions of Queensland. We aimed to compare model performance and to evaluate the effect of statistical over-dispersion and zero-inflation of RRV surveillance data, and non-linearity of predictors on model fit. A variable selection strategy for screening important predictors was developed and was found to be efficient and able to generate consistent and reasonable numbers of predictors across regions and in all training sets. Negative binomial models generally exhibited better model fit than Poisson models, suggesting that over-dispersion in the data is the primary factor driving model fit compared to non-linearity of predictors and excess zeros. All models predicted the peak periods well but were unable to fit and predict the magnitude of peaks, especially when there were high numbers of cases. Adding new variables including historical RRV cases and mosquito abundance may improve model performance. The standard negative binomial generalised linear model is stable, simple, and effective in prediction, and is thus considered the best choice among all models.

Human Seroprevalence for Dengue, Ross River, and Barmah Forest viruses in Australia and the Pacific: A systematic review spanning seven decades.

BACKGROUND: Dengue (DENV), Ross River (RRV) and Barmah Forest viruses (BFV) are the most common human arboviral infections in Australia and the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) and are associated with debilitating symptoms. All are nationally notifiable in Australia, but routine surveillance is limited to a few locations in the PICTs. Understanding the level of human exposure to these viruses can inform disease management and mitigation strategies. To assess the historic and current seroprevalence of DENV, RRV and BFV in Australia and the PICTs we conducted a systematic literature review of all published quantitative serosurveys. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses procedures were adopted to produce a protocol to systematically search for published studies reporting the seroprevalence of DENV, RRV and BFV in Australia and the PICTs. Data for author, research year, location, study population, serosurvey methods and positive tests were extracted. A total of 41 papers, reporting 78 serosurveys of DENV, RRV and BFV including 62,327 samples met the inclusion criteria for this review. Seroprevalence varied depending on the assay used, strategy of sample collection and location of the study population. Significant differences were observed in reported seropositivity depending on the sample collection strategy with clinically targeted sampling reporting the highest seroprevalence across all three viruses. Non-stratified seroprevalence showed wide ranges in reported positivity with DENV 0.0% - 95.6%, RRV 0.0% - 100.0%, and BFV 0.3% - 12.5%. We discuss some of the causes of variation including serological methods used, selection bias in sample collection including clinical or environmental associations, and location of study site. We consider the extent to which serosurveys reflect the epidemiology of the viruses and provide broad recommendations regarding the conduct and reporting of arbovirus serosurveys. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Human serosurveys provide important information on the extent of human exposure to arboviruses across: (1) time, (2) place, and (3) person (e.g., age, gender, clinical presentation etc). Interpreting results obtained at these scales has the potential to inform us about transmission cycles, improve diagnostic surveillance, and mitigate future outbreaks. Future research should streamline methods and reduce bias to allow a better understanding of the burden of these diseases and the factors associated with seroprevalence. Greater consideration should be given to the interpretation of seroprevalence in studies, and increased rigour applied in linking seroprevalence to transmission dynamics.

Arbovirus models to provide practical management tools for mosquito control and disease prevention in the Northern Territory, Australia.

Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common human arbovirus disease in Australia. Although the disease is nonfatal, the associated arthritis and postinfection fatigue can be debilitating for many months, impacting on workforce participation. We sought to create an early-warning system to notify of approaching RRV disease outbreak conditions for major townships in the Northern Territory. By applying a logistic regression model to meteorologic factors, including rainfall, a postestimation analysis of sensitivity and specificity can create rainfall cut-points. These rainfall cut-points indicate the rainfall level above which previous epidemic conditions have occurred. Furthermore, rainfall cut-points indirectly adjust for vertebrate host data from the agile wallaby (Macropus agilis) as the life cycle of the agile wallaby is intricately meshed with the wet season. Once generated, cut-points can thus be used prospectively to allow timely implementation of larval survey and control measures and public health warnings to preemptively reduce RRV disease incidence. Cut-points are location specific and have the capacity to replace previously used models, which require data management and input, and rarely provide timely notification for vector control requirements and public health warnings. These methods can be adapted for use elsewhere.