Half-life Estimation of Pertussis-Specific Maternal Antibodies in (Pre)Term Infants After In-Pregnancy Tetanus, Diphtheria, Acellular Pertussis Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the risk of pertussis-related morbidity and mortality in early life, an increasing number of countries recommend maternal pertussis vaccination. However, there is limited knowledge about half-lives of vaccine-induced pertussis-specific maternal antibodies, especially in preterm infants, and factors potentially influencing them. METHODS: We compared 2 different approaches to provide estimates of the half-lives of pertussis-specific maternal antibodies in infants and explored potential effects on the half-life in 2 studies. In the first approach, we estimated the half-lives per child and used these estimates as responses in linear models. In the second approach, we used linear mixed effect models on a log2 transformed scale of the longitudinal data to use the inverse of the time parameter as an estimate for the half-lives. RESULTS: Both approaches provided similar results. The identified covariates partly explain differences in half-life estimates. The strongest evidence we observed was a difference between term and preterm infants, with the preterm infants showing a longer half-life. Among others, a longer interval between vaccination and delivery increases the half-life. CONCLUSIONS: Several variables influence the decay speed of maternal antibodies. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages, while the choice is secondary when assessing the half-life of pertussis-specific antibodies. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02408926 and NCT02511327.

Sex-specific evaluation and redevelopment of the GRACE score in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes in populations from the UK and Switzerland: a multinational analysis with external cohort validation.

BACKGROUND: The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) 2.0 score was developed and validated in predominantly male patient populations. We aimed to assess its sex-specific performance in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) and to develop an improved score (GRACE 3.0) that accounts for sex differences in disease characteristics. METHODS: We evaluated the GRACE 2.0 score in 420 781 consecutive patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary nationwide cohorts from the UK and Switzerland. Machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality were informed by the GRACE variables and developed in sex-disaggregated data from 386 591 patients from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (split into a training cohort of 309 083 [80·0%] patients and a validation cohort of 77 508 [20·0%] patients). External validation of the GRACE 3.0 score was done in 20 727 patients from Switzerland. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2005, and Aug 27, 2020, 400 054 patients with NSTE-ACS in the UK and 20 727 patients with NSTE-ACS in Switzerland were included in the study. Discrimination of in-hospital death by the GRACE 2.0 score was good in male patients (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0·86, 95% CI 0·86-0·86) and notably lower in female patients (0·82, 95% CI 0·81-0·82; p<0·0001). The GRACE 2.0 score underestimated in-hospital mortality risk in female patients, favouring their incorrect stratification to the low-to-intermediate risk group, for which the score does not indicate early invasive treatment. Accounting for sex differences, GRACE 3.0 showed superior discrimination and good calibration with an AUC of 0·91 (95% CI 0·89-0·92) in male patients and 0·87 (95% CI 0·84-0·89) in female patients in an external cohort validation. GRACE 3·0 led to a clinically relevant reclassification of female patients to the high-risk group. INTERPRETATION: The GRACE 2.0 score has limited discriminatory performance and underestimates in-hospital mortality in female patients with NSTE-ACS. The GRACE 3.0 score performs better in men and women and reduces sex inequalities in risk stratification. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, Lindenhof Foundation, Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, and Theodor-Ida-Herzog-Egli Foundation.

Effectiveness of computer-based interventions for community-dwelling people with cognitive decline: a systematic review with meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive deficits arise with age and can increase the risk for subjective cognitive decline (SCD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), which may result in dementia, leading to health problems, care dependency and institutionalization. Computer-based cognitive interventions (CCIs) have the potential to act as important counteraction functions in preserving or improving cognition concomitant to available pharmacological treatment. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of CCIs performed individually with a personal or tablet computer, game console, virtual, augmented, or mixed reality application on cognition in community-dwelling people with SCD, MCI and dementia. METHODS: A systematic review with meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was performed. The systematic literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, IEEE Xplore Digital Library, Web of Science, Scopus and PsycINFO. In addition, a search for gray literature and backward citation searching were carried out. To judge on the evidence, two reviewers independently used the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. The standardized mean difference (SDM) for pooling comparable studies using the random-effects model was applied. RESULTS: Twenty-four RCTs were identified, of which 1 RCT examined CCIs in individuals with SCD, 18 RCTs with MCI, and 6 RCTs with dementia. Most interventions were conducted with personal computers. Meta-analyses with 12 RCTs showed significant effects of computer-based cognitive interventions for people with MCI in the domains memory, working memory, attention/concentration/processing speed and executive functioning, but no significant improvements in global cognition and language. Regarding dementia a meta-analysis pooled with 4 RCTs demonstrated a tendency towards, but no significant increase of memory functions (SMD 0.33, CI 95% [-0.10, 0.77]). One RCT regarding SCD reported significant improvements in memory functions for participants conducting a cognitive training on a personal computer. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrated that CCIs have beneficial effects on domain-specific cognition in people with MCI but no significant effects on people with dementia. In terms of SCD, one study showed significant improvements in memory functions. It seems that the beneficial effect for cognitive preservation or improvement due to CCIs occurs at the earliest intervention state. However, more research on SCD is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CDR42020184069.

Pertussis Immunization During Pregnancy: Assessment of the Role of Maternal Antibodies on Immune Responses in Term and Preterm-Born Infants.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on the impact of maternal tetanus, diphtheria, acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccination for preterm born infants. We report its effect at birth and on antibody-mediated immune responses to a DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP~T vaccine in preterm compared with term infants. METHODS: Women delivering at term or prematurely were either vaccinated with a Tdap vaccine (Boostrix; GSK) during pregnancy or not vaccinated in the last 5 years. Cord and maternal blood were collected at delivery. Infants were vaccinated with DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP~T vaccine (Hexyon; Sanofi Pasteur) and blood collected before and 1 month after primary (8-12-16 weeks) and before and 1 month after booster vaccination (13 or 15 months for preterm and term, respectively). Immunoglobulin G antibodies against all antigens included in DTaP-IPV-HB-PRP~T vaccine were measured (NCT02511327). RESULTS: Cord blood geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) in preterm infants from Tdap-vaccinated women were significantly higher than in term and preterm infants from unvaccinated women. A longer time interval between maternal vaccination and delivery resulted in higher cord blood GMCs in preterm infants. Equal GMCs in term and preterm infants from Tdap-vaccinated women were observed after primary vaccination. After boosting, significantly lower GMCs were seen for pertussis toxin, filamentous hemagglutinin, and tetanus toxoid in preterm compared with term infants from Tdap-vaccinated women, yet still comparable to GMCs in both term and preterm infants from unvaccinated women. CONCLUSIONS: Preterm infants profit from maternal Tdap vaccination. Prematurity did not influence primary immune responses in the presence of maternal antibodies but was associated with a lower booster immune response.

Modelling longitudinal binary outcomes with outcome dependent observation times: an application to a malaria cohort study.

BACKGROUND : In spite of the global reduction of 21% in malaria incidence between 2010 and 2015, the disease still threatens many lives of children and pregnant mothers in African countries. A correct assessment and evaluation of the impact of malaria control strategies still remains quintessential in order to eliminate the disease and its burden. Malaria follow-up studies typically involve routine visits at pre-scheduled time points and/or clinical visits whenever individuals experience malaria-like symptoms. In the latter case, infection triggers outcome assessment, thereby leading to outcome-dependent sampling (ODS). Commonly used methods to analyze such longitudinal data ignore ODS and potentially lead to biased estimates of malaria-specific transmission parameters, hence, inducing an incorrect assessment and evaluation of malaria control strategies. METHODS : In this paper, a new method is proposed to handle ODS by use of a joint model for the longitudinal binary outcome measured at routine visits and the clinical event times. The methodology is applied to malaria parasitaemia data from a cohort of [Formula: see text] Ugandan children aged 0.5-10 years from 3 regions (Walukuba-300 children, Kihihi-355 children and Nagongera-333 children) with varying transmission intensities (entomological inoculation rate equal to 2.8, 32 and 310 infectious bites per unit year, respectively) collected between 2011-2014. RESULTS : The results indicate that malaria parasite prevalence and force of infection (FOI) increase with age in the region of high malaria intensity with highest FOI in age group 5-10 years. For the region of medium intensity, the prevalence slightly increases with age and the FOI for the routine process is highest in age group 5-10 years, yet for the clinical infections, the FOI gradually decreases with increasing age. For the region with low intensity, both the prevalence and FOI peak at the age of 1 year after which the former remains constant with age yet the latter suddenly decreases with age for the clinically observed infections. CONCLUSION : Malaria parasite prevalence and FOI increase with age in the region of high malaria intensity. In all study sites, both the prevalence and FOI are highest among previously asymptomatic children and lowest among their symptomatic counterparts. Using a simulation study inspired by the malaria data at hand, the proposed methodology shows to have the smallest bias, especially when consecutive positive malaria parasitaemia presence results within a time period of 35 days were considered to be due to the same infection.

Breast Milk Antibody Levels in Tdap-Vaccinated Women After Preterm Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Enrichment of breast milk (BM) with immunoglobulin (Ig) A and IgG through maternal vaccination could help infants combat targeted pathogens. However, evidence on this effect after preterm delivery is lacking. In this study, we investigated the total and anti-pertussis toxin (anti-PT)-specific IgA and IgG production in BM after term and preterm delivery in the presence of maternal Tdap (tetanus, diphtheria, acellular pertussis) vaccination. METHODS: Serum and BM samples of lactating women who delivered at term or prematurely and did or did not receive Tdap vaccine (Boostrix, GSK Biologicals) during pregnancy were collected as part of a clinical study (N = 234). Anti-PT IgA/IgG (IBL assay; Meso Scale Discovery assay) and total IgA/IgG (Thermofisher, on BM samples only) immunosorbent assays were performed on all samples collected at 72 hours and 4, 8, and 12 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: BM after preterm delivery contained anti-PT IgA and IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) comparable to those after term delivery (eg, colostrum anti-PT IgA, 5.39 IU/mL vs 6.69 IU/mL, respectively). Maternal Tdap vaccination induced significantly higher anti-PT IgG GMCs in colostrum of vaccinated compared with unvaccinated women who delivered at term (0.110 IU/mL vs 0.027 IU/mL, P = .009). Anti-PT antibodies persisted up to 12 weeks postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that maternal Tdap vaccination induces high Ig levels in BM after both term and preterm delivery and that these antibodies remain abundantly present throughout lactation, possibly offering additional mucosal protection during the most vulnerable period in early life. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02511327.

A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies.

BACKGROUND: In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. METHODS: We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. RESULTS: Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. CONCLUSIONS: Contacts during leisure activities are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment of social contacts in the population is therefore crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion.

Stable HEV IgG seroprevalence in Belgium between 2006 and 2014.

Recent European studies suggest an emergence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection. We evaluated trends in birth cohort-specific HEV seroprevalence and regional differences in Belgium. HEV IgG seroprevalence was analysed on national serum banks (1579 and 2087 samples for 2006 and 2014, respectively. Hepatitis E virus antigen was tested on positive samples. Observed data were modelled using a generalized additive model with a complementary log-log link. No significant differences between birth cohorts or sexes were found. Modelling identified the individual's age and province as relevant factors. The probability of HEV seropositivity increases significantly with age. An estimated total of 434 819 (yearly rate of 54,352) (sero-)infections were found between 2006 and 2014. Overall, HEV IgG seroprevalences were 4.1% (64/1579, 95% CI 3.1-5.1) and 5.8% (121/2087, CI 4.8-6.9) in 2006 and 2014, respectively. Observed HEV antigen seroprevalence was 0.027% (1/3666) for the entire cohort. These results show stable HEV IgG seroprevalence in Belgium.

How nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage evolved during and after a PCV13-to-PCV10 vaccination programme switch in Belgium, 2016 to 2018.

BackgroundThe current carriage study was set up to reinforce surveillance during/after the PCV13-to-PCVC10 switch in Belgium.AimThis observational study monitored carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp) serotypes, particularly those no longer covered (3, 6A, 19A), as well as Haemophilus influenzae (Hi), because PCV10 contains the non-typeable Hi protein D.MethodsA total of 2,615 nasopharyngeal swabs from children (6-30 months old) attending day care were collected in three periods over 2016-2018. Children's demographic and clinical characteristics and vaccination status were obtained through a questionnaire. Sp and Hi were identified by culture and PCR. Pneumococcal strains were tested for antimicrobial (non-)susceptibility by disc diffusion and serotyped by Quellung-reaction (Quellung-reaction and PCR for serotypes 3, 6A, 19A).ResultsThe carriage prevalence of Sp (> 75%) remained stable over the successive periods but that of Hi increased (87.4%, 664 Hi-carriers/760 in 2016 vs 93.9%, 895/953 in 2017-2018). The proportion of non-PCV13 vaccine serotypes decreased (94.6%, 438 isolates/463 in 2016 vs 89.7%, 599/668 in 2017-2018) while that of PCV13-non-PCV10 vaccine serotypes (3 + 6A + 19A) increased (0.9%, 4 isolates/463 in 2016 vs 7.8%, 52/668 in 2017-2018), with serotype 19A most frequently identified (87.9%, 58/66 isolates). Non-susceptibility of pneumococci against any of the tested antibiotics was stable over the study period (> 44%).ConclusionsDuring and after the PCV13-to-PCV10 vaccine switch, the proportion of non-PCV13 serotypes decreased, mainly due to a serotype 19A carriage prevalence increase. These results complement invasive pneumococcal disease surveillance data, providing further basis for pneumococcal vaccination programme policy making.

Sample size calculation for estimating key epidemiological parameters using serological data and mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Our work was motivated by the need to, given serum availability and/or financial resources, decide on which samples to test in a serum bank for different pathogens. Simulation-based sample size calculations were performed to determine the age-based sampling structures and optimal allocation of a given number of samples for testing across various age groups best suited to estimate key epidemiological parameters (e.g., seroprevalence or force of infection) with acceptable precision levels in a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey. METHODS: Statistical and mathematical models and three age-based sampling structures (survey-based structure, population-based structure, uniform structure) were used. Our calculations are based on Belgian serological survey data collected in 2001-2003 where testing was done, amongst others, for the presence of Immunoglobulin G antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella, for which a national mass immunisation programme was introduced in 1985 in Belgium, and against varicella-zoster virus and parvovirus B19 for which the endemic equilibrium assumption is tenable in Belgium. RESULTS: The optimal age-based sampling structure to use in the sampling of a serological survey as well as the optimal allocation distribution varied depending on the epidemiological parameter of interest for a given infection and between infections. CONCLUSIONS: When estimating epidemiological parameters with acceptable levels of precision within the context of a single cross-sectional serological survey, attention should be given to the age-based sampling structure. Simulation-based sample size calculations in combination with mathematical modelling can be utilised for choosing the optimal allocation of a given number of samples over various age groups.

Blockade of prostaglandin E2 receptor 4 ameliorates nephrotoxic serum nephritis.

Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) signaling is known to modulate inflammation and vascular resistance. Receptors of PGE2 [E-type prostanoid receptors (EP)] might be an attractive pharmacological target in immune-mediated diseases such as glomerulonephritis. We hypothesized that selective EP4 antagonism improves nephrotoxic serum nephritis (NTS) by its anti-inflammatory properties. Mice were subjected to NTS and treated with the EP4 antagonist ONO AE3-208 (10 mg·kg body wt-1·day-1] or vehicle starting from disease initiation. In one set of experiments, treatment was started 4 days after NTS induction. Tubular epithelial cells were evaluated in vitro under starving conditions. EP4 antagonist treatment significantly improved the NTS phenotype without affecting blood pressure levels. Remarkably, the improved NTS phenotype was also observed when treatment was started 4 days after NTS induction. EP4 antagonism decreased tubular chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand ( Cxcl) 1 and Cxcl-5 expression and thereby subsequently reduced interstitial neutrophil infiltration into the kidney. In vitro, tubular epithelial cells increasingly expressed Cxcl-5 mRNA and Cxcl-5 protein when treated with PGE2 or an EP4 agonist under starving conditions, which was blunted by EP4 antagonist treatment. Together, EP4 antagonism improves the NTS phenotype, probably by decreasing mainly Cxcl-5 production in tubular cells, thereby reducing renal neutrophil infiltration.

Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning studies and hence inform study design for infectious diseases transmitted between humans and/or animals. METHODS: We searched Ovid Medline and two trial registry platforms (Cochrane, WHO) using search terms related to infection, mathematical model, and study design from the earliest dates to October 2016. Eligible publications and registered trials included mathematical models (compartmental, individual-based, or Markov) which were described and used to inform the design of infectious disease studies. We extracted information about the investigated infection, population, model characteristics, and study design. RESULTS: We identified 28 unique publications but no registered trials. Focusing on compartmental and individual-based models we found 12 observational/surveillance studies and 11 clinical trials. Infections studied were equally animal and human infectious diseases for the observational/surveillance studies, while all but one between humans for clinical trials. The mathematical models were used to inform, amongst other things, the required sample size (n = 16), the statistical power (n = 9), the frequency at which samples should be taken (n = 6), and from whom (n = 6). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the fact that mathematical models have been advocated to be used at the planning stage of studies or surveillance systems, they are used scarcely. With only one exception, the publications described theoretical studies, hence, not being utilised in real studies.

MACULAR CHOROIDAL VOLUME CHANGES AFTER INTRAVITREAL BEVACIZUMAB FOR EXUDATIVE AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effect of intravitreal bevacizumab on the macular choroidal volume and the subfoveal choroidal thickness in treatment naïve eyes with exudative age-related macular degeneration. METHODS: The macular choroidal volume and the subfoveal choroidal thickness were measured using enhanced depth imaging optical coherence tomography. After a screening examination, each patient received 3 monthly intravitreal injections of 1.25 mg bevacizumab. One month after the third injection was a final assessment. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with a mean age of 80 ± 6.4 years were included. The macular choroidal volume decreased significantly from median 4.1 mm (interquartile range 3.4-5.9) to median 3.9 mm (interquartile range 3.1-5.6) between the baseline and final examination (difference -0.46 mm, 95% confidence interval: -0.57 to 0.35, P < 0.001). Similarly, subfoveal choroidal thickness had decreased from 157.0 µm (interquartile range 116.0-244.5) at baseline to 139.0 µm (interquartile range 102.5-212.0) at the final examination (P < 0.001). Both parameters macular choroidal volume at baseline and subfoveal choroidal thickness at baseline were not associated with the response to treatment. CONCLUSION: The macular choroidal volume and the subfoveal choroidal thickness decreased significantly after 3 monthly bevacizumab injections for exudative age-related macular degeneration.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND: The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS: We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS: The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Timing of pertussis vaccination during pregnancy: Evidence and implementation - A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Pertussis vaccination in pregnancy has been introduced in an increasing number of countries to better protect infants against the disease in their first weeks of life. The optimal timing of pertussis vaccination in pregnancy is however still under debate. METHODS: We systematically reviewed published literature on safety, immunogenicity and effectiveness of pertussis vaccination in pregnancy related to timing of vaccination. The search was conducted using PubMed, MEDLINE and Web of Science and yielded 1623 articles, thereof 777 duplicates. Screening resulted in the inclusion of 45 publications reporting on safety (n = 11), immunogenicity (n = 26) and/or effectiveness (n = 9). We also mapped pertussis recommendations in pregnancy by government institutions globally according to the recommended timing of vaccination. RESULTS: Overall, the selected publications did not indicate increased safety concerns associated with timing of pertussis vaccination in pregnancy. Immunogenicity studies often suggested optimal protection at birth after early third trimester vaccination. Few studies investigated qualitative antibody characteristics, and none investigated antibody titers in breastmilk or cellular-mediated immunity related to timing of vaccination. Effectiveness studies showed decreased vaccine effectiveness of late third trimester pertussis vaccination compared to vaccination earlier in pregnancy. Worldwide, a general recommendation for pertussis vaccination in pregnancy was found for 58 countries, with as many as 22 different recommended timings registered. CONCLUSION: The timing of pertussis vaccination in pregnancy seems to impact immunogenicity and vaccine effectiveness, with optimal immune responses at birth suggested following early third trimester vaccination and reduced vaccine effectiveness of late third trimester pertussis vaccination suggested compared to vaccination earlier in pregnancy. However, inconsistent and lacking data are reflected in the divergent national recommendations for pertussis vaccination in pregnancy worldwide. SUMMARY: Pertussis vaccination in pregnancy aims to protect infants in their first weeks of life. Our review suggests that immunogenicity and vaccine effectiveness are impacted by the timing of vaccination in pregnancy. National recommendations for pertussis vaccination in pregnancy vary widely worldwide.

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS: We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS: The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection.

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are, by definition, transmitted between sexual partners. For curable STIs an infected index case can potentially re-infect the same partner multiple times. Thus, R0, the average number of secondary infections one typical infected individual will produce during his or her infectious period is not necessarily the same as the average number of secondary cases (infected persons). Here we introduce the new concept of the case reproduction number (Rc). In addition, we define the partnership reproduction number (Rp) as the average number of secondary partnerships consisting of two infected individuals one typical infected individual will produce over his or her infectious lifetime. Rp takes into account clearance and re-infection within partnerships, which results in a prolongation of the duration of the infectious period. The two new reproduction numbers were derived for a deterministic pair model with serial monogamous partnerships using infection parameters for Chlamydia trachomatis, an example of a curable STI. We showed that re-infection within partnerships means that curable STIs can be sustained endemically even when the average number of secondary cases a person produces during his or her infectious period is below one.

Describing the progression from Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae to pelvic inflammatory disease: systematic review of mathematical modeling studies.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia screening is recommended to prevent pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). A systematic review was conducted to determine how the natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection and progression to PID have been described in mathematical modeling studies. METHODS: Four databases, from their earliest dates to October 2009, and reference lists of included studies were searched. Models were defined as dynamic if progression from infection to PID was time dependent and static otherwise. Descriptions of the natural history of infection and parameter values used for progression to PID were extracted from all studies. Details of how disease progression was implemented were extracted from reports of dynamic models. RESULTS: Forty-five publications from 40 unique models were included. Nine models were classed as dynamic, including 4 Markov, 3 compartmental, and 2 individual-based models. There were 28 static decision analysis models. For 3 publications, the model type could not be determined. Among the dynamic models, there were explicit statements that C. trachomatis could progress to PID uniformly throughout the infection, in the first 6 months of infection, in the second half of infection, or that there is a most likely interval from the initial infection for the development of PID, which varies from 1 to 12 months. In static models, the average fraction of cases of chlamydia developing PID was 22%. CONCLUSION: The reporting of key items in mathematical modeling studies about PID could be improved. The potential timings of progression to PID identified in this review can be investigated further to advance our understanding about how chlamydia screening interventions work to prevent PID.

Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. METHODS: We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. RESULTS: The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

The role of reinfection and partner notification in the efficacy of Chlamydia screening programs.

Repeated Chlamydia trachomatis infections after treatment are common. One reason is reinfection from untreated partners in ongoing sexual partnerships. Mathematical models that are used to predict the impact of screening on reducing chlamydia prevalence often do not incorporate reinfection and might overestimate the expected impact. We describe a pair compartmental model that explicitly incorporates sexual partnership duration and reinfection. The pair model predicts a weaker impact of screening when compared directly with a model that does not accommodate partnerships. Effective management of sex partners to prevent reinfection might need to be strengthened in chlamydia control programs.