Impact of National Public-Private Mix and Medical Expense Support Program to Control Tuberculosis in South Korea: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to global public health. Various measures at the national level have been implemented to control TB, and no evidence with long-term effectiveness has yet been evaluated on TB control programs. We confirmed the long-term effectiveness of the TB control programs in reducing overall burden in South Korea using interrupted time series analysis. Our finding suggests that, along with the public-private mix, relieving the economic burden of people with TB may complement achieving the End TB Strategy. For countries currently developing strategies for TB control, results may provide important insights in effective TB control.

Risk of Severe COVID-19 and Protective Effectiveness of Vaccination Among Solid Organ Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are at higher risk for severe infection. However, the risk for severe COVID-19 and vaccine effectiveness among SOTRs remain unclear. METHODS: This retrospective study used a nationwide health care claims database and COVID-19 registry from the Republic of Korea (2020 to 2022). Adult SOTRs diagnosed with COVID-19 were matched with up to 4 non-SOTR COVID-19 patients by propensity score. Severe COVID-19 was defined as treatment with high-flow nasal cannulae, mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. RESULTS: Among 6783 SOTRs with COVID-19, severe COVID-19 was reported with the highest rate in lung transplant recipients (13.16%), followed by the heart (6.30%), kidney (3.90%), and liver (2.40%). SOTRs had a higher risk of severe COVID-19 compared to non-SOTRs, and lung transplant recipients showed the highest risk (adjusted odds ratio, 18.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.53-38.58). Vaccine effectiveness against severe disease among SOTRs was 47% (95% CI, 18%-65%), 64% (95% CI, 49%-75%), and 64% (95% CI, 29%-81%) for 2, 3, and 4 doses, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SOTRs are at significantly higher risk for severe COVID-19 compared to non-SOTRs. Vaccination is effective in preventing the progression to severe COVID-19. Efforts should be made to improve vaccine uptake among SOTRs, while additional protective measures should be developed.

Diagnostic performance of the (1-3)-ß-d-glucan assay in patients with different risks for invasive fungal diseases.

We evaluated the diagnostic performance of the ß-d-glucan (BDG) test (Beijing Gold Mountain River Tech) in diagnosing invasive fungal disease (IFD) and its variations among patients with different risks. Patients ≥18 years old who underwent a serum BDG test (positive cutoff value >80 pg/ml) from April 2017 through May 2018 were collected consecutively. Patients were classified into three groups: group 1, patients with host factors as defined by the prior 2008 European Organization for Research and Treatment (EORTC) criteria; group 2, those with extended host factors in 2020 EORTC criteria; and group 3, those without any risk factor mentioned in the criteria. IFD was defined by 2020 EORTC criteria, but BDG was not considered. Diagnostic performance of the serum BDG test was measured by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Among 469 patients, 15.4% (72/469) were diagnosed with IFD (48/191 [25.1%], 14/144 [9.7%], and 10/134 [7.5%] in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively). The BDG assay showed fair performance (AUC 0.748 [95% CI: 0.688-0.810]). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 77.8%, 60.7%, 26.4%, and 93.8%, respectively. PPV was higher in group 1, and NPV was higher in group 3. Additionally, diagnostic odds ratios were 6.73, 2.88, and 5.92 in groups 1, 2, and 3. Immunosuppressant use, non-IFD/Candida colonization, and central venous catheter were associated with false positivity. Clinicians should cautiously interpret the BDG assay, considering the various diagnostic performances depending on the different levels of risk.

We evaluated the diagnostic performance of the serum ß-d-glucan test in patients with varying risks for invasive fungal diseases. The test showed acceptable performance, but its predictive values differed among risk groups, highlighting the need for tailored interpretation.

Prevalence and Burden of Human Adenovirus-Associated Acute Respiratory Illness in the Republic of Korea Military, 2013 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Human adenovirus (HAdV) is a common cause of acute respiratory disease (ARD) and has raised significant concerns within the Korean military. Here, we conducted a comprehensive epidemiological analysis of HAdV-associated ARD by evaluating its prevalence, clinical outcomes, and prognosis. METHODS: We reviewed data from multiple sources, including the New Defense Medical Information System, Defense Medical Statistical Information System, Ministry of National Defense, Army Headquarters, Navy Headquarters, Air Force Headquarters, and Armed Forces Medical Command. We analyzed data of patients who underwent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for respiratory viruses between January 2013 and July 2022 in all 14 Korean military hospitals. The analysis included the PCR test results, demographic characteristics, health care utilization, and prognosis including types of treatments received, incidence of pneumonia, and mortality. RESULTS: Among the 23,830 individuals who underwent PCR testing at Korean military hospitals, 44.78% (10,670 cases) tested positive for respiratory viruses. Across all military types and ranks, HAdV was the most prevalent virus, with a total of 8,580 patients diagnosed, among HAdV, influenza virus, human metapneumovirus, human parainfluenza virus, and human respiratory syncytial virus. HAdV-infected patients exhibited higher rates of healthcare use compared to non-HAdV-infected patients, including a greater number of emergency visits (1.04 vs. 1.02) and outpatient visits (1.31 vs. 1.27), longer hospitalizations (8.14 days vs. 6.84 days), and extended stays in the intensive care unit (5.21 days vs. 3.38 days). Furthermore, HAdV-infected patients had a higher proportion of pneumonia cases (65.79% vs. 48.33%) and greater likelihood of receiving advanced treatments such as high flow nasal cannula or continuous renal replacement therapy. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that HAdV posed a significant public health concern within the Korean military prior to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Given the potential for a resurgence of outbreaks in the post-COVID-19 era, proactive measures, such as education, environmental improvements, and the development of HAdV vaccines, are crucial for effectively preventing future outbreaks.

Difference in Baseline Antimicrobial Prescription Patterns of Hospitals According to Participation in the National Antimicrobial Monitoring and Feedback System in Korea.

This study aimed to evaluate the differences in the baseline characteristics and patterns of antibiotic usage among hospitals based on their participation in the Korea National Antimicrobial Use Analysis System (KONAS). We obtained claims data from the National Health Insurance for inpatients admitted to all secondary- and tertiary-care hospitals between January 2020 and December 2021 in Korea. 15.9% (58/395) of hospitals were KONAS participants, among which the proportion of hospitals with > 900 beds (31.0% vs. 2.6%, P < 0.001) and tertiary care (50.0% vs. 5.2%, P < 0.001) was higher than that among non-participants. The consumption of antibiotics targeting antimicrobial-resistant gram positive bacteria (33.7 vs. 27.1 days of therapy [DOT]/1,000 patient-days, P = 0.019) and antibiotics predominantly used for resistant gram-negative bacteria (4.8 vs. 3.7 DOT/1,000 patient-days, P = 0.034) was higher in KONAS-participating versus -non-participating hospitals. The current KONAS data do not fully represent all secondary- and tertiary-care hospitals in Korea; thus, the KONAS results should be interpreted with caution.

Lack of association between fluoroquinolone and aortic aneurysm or dissection.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: An increased risk of aortic aneurysm and aortic dissection (AA/AD) has been reported with fluoroquinolone (FQ) use. However, recent studies suggested confounding factors by indication. This study aimed to investigate the risk of AA/AD associated with FQ use. METHODS: This nationwide population-based study included adults aged ≥20 years who received a prescription of oral FQ or third-generation cephalosporins (3GC) during outpatient visits from 2005 to 2016. Data source was the National Health Insurance Service reimbursement database. The primary outcome was hospitalization or in-hospital death with a primary diagnosis of AA/AD. A self-controlled case series (SCCS) and Cox proportional hazards model were used. Self-controlled case series compared the incidence of the primary outcome in the risk period vs. the control periods. RESULTS: A total of 954 308 patients (777 109 with FQ and 177 199 with 3GC use) were included. The incidence rate ratios for AA/AD between the risk period and the pre-risk period were higher in the 3GC group [11.000; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.420-85.200] compared to the FQ group (2.000; 95% CI 0.970-4.124). The overall incidence of AA/AD among the patients who received FQ and 3GC was 5.40 and 8.47 per 100 000 person-years. There was no significant difference in the risk between the two groups (adjusted hazard ratio 0.752; 95% CI 0.515-1.100) in the inverse probability of treatment-weighted Cox proportional hazards model. Subgroup and sensitivity analysis showed consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in the risk of AA/AD in patients who were administered oral FQ compared to those administered 3GC. The study findings suggest that the use of FQ should not be deterred when clinically indicated.

Phylogenetic Analysis Based on Whole Genome Sequences, Antibiotic Resistance, and Virulence of Salmonella enterica Clinical Isolates from South Korea.

Salmonella is a major cause of foodborne disease and frequently causes human salmonellosis in South Korea. In this study, we investigated the genome diversity, antimicrobial resistance, and virulence of clinical isolates of Salmonella enterica from South Korea. We collected 42 S. enterica subsp. enterica isolates from two hospitals in South Korea. Whole genome sequences were determined. Serovars and sequence types (STs) based on multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were identified from whole genome sequences. Phylogenetic trees based on whole genome sequences and a minimum spanning tree based on MLST were constructed. Human serum resistance assays and gentamicin protection assays were performed to assess in vitro virulence. Nineteen serovars were identified among 42 clinical isolates, including nine Salmonella Typhi isolates. There were inconsistencies between serogroups and phylogenetic clusters in the phylogenetic tree and minimum spanning tree, but high clonality of S. Typhi was observed. Salmonella Typhi isolates were divided into two clusters, corresponding to ST1 and ST2. Isolates of serovars Typhimurium and I4,[5],12:i:- clustered into a group, and a hybrid isolate between the two serovars was identified. Four ciprofloxacin-resistant isolates were identified among nine S. Typhi isolates, and all isolates of S. Enteritidis and S. Panama were resistant to colistin. The gentamicin protection assay revealed that serogroup D1 was significantly less virulent than the other serogroups. Our study suggests high diversity of S. enterica clinical isolates from South Korea and non-monophyly of serogroups. In addition, subgroups of S. Typhi isolates and a hybrid isolate between serovars Typhimurium and I4,[5],12:i:- were identified.

Augmented humoral and cellular immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 after breakthrough infection in kidney transplant recipients who received 3 doses of coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine.

Diminished immune response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines and breakthrough infection (BI) is a major concern for solid organ transplant recipients. Humoral and cellular immune responses of kidney transplant (KT) recipients after a third COVID-19 vaccination were investigated compared to matched health care workers. Anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 spike protein antibody and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 specific interferon-gamma releasing assay (IGRA) were assessed. A total of 38 KT recipients, including 20 BI and 18 noninfection, were evaluated. In the KT BI group, antibody titers were significantly increased (median 5 to 724, binding antibody units/mL (P = 0.002) after the third vaccination, but IGRA responses were negligible. After BI, antibody titers increased (median 11 355 binding antibody unit/mL; P < 0.001) and there was a significant increase of IGRA responses to spike proteins (Spike1-Nil, median 0.05 to 0.41 IU/mL; P = 0.009). Antibody titers and IGRA responses were significantly higher in the BI than in the noninfection group after 6 months. Immune responses were stronger in the health care worker than in the KT cohort, but the gap became narrower after BI. In conclusion, KT recipients who experienced BI after 3 COVID-19 vaccinations acquired augmented humoral and cellular immune responses.

Triple immune modulator therapy for aberrant hyperinflammatory responses in severe COVID-19.

A dysregulated hyperinflammatory response is a key pathogenesis of severe COVID-19, but optimal immune modulator treatment has not been established. To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of double (glucocorticoids and tocilizumab) and triple (plus baricitinib) immune modulator therapy for severe COVID-19, a retrospective cohort study was conducted. For the immunologic investigation, a single-cell RNA sequencing analysis was performed in serially collected PBMCs and neutrophil specimens. Triple immune modulator therapy was a significant factor in a multivariable analysis for 30-day recovery. In the scRNA-seq analysis, type I and II IFN response-related pathways were suppressed by GC, and the IL-6-associated signature was additionally downregulated by TOC. Adding BAR to GC and TOC distinctly downregulated the ISGF3 cluster. Adding BAR also regulated the pathologically activated monocyte and neutrophil subpopulation induced by aberrant IFN signals. Triple immune modulator therapy in severe COVID-19 improved 30-day recovery through additional regulation of the aberrant hyperinflammatory immune response.

Breakthrough invasive fungal infection in patients with myeloid malignancy receiving posaconazole tablet prophylaxis: Clinical features, risk factors, and posaconazole profiles.

Posaconazole (PSC) delayed-release tablet prophylaxis is the standard of care for preventing invasive fungal infection (IFI) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia undergoing myelosuppressive chemotherapy. The clinical features, risk factors, and PSC profiles of breakthrough IFI (bIFI) in patients receiving PSC tablet prophylaxis were investigated. A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted, including adult patients with myeloid malignancy who received prophylactic PSC tablets while undergoing chemotherapy from June 2016 to June 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for bIFI. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to predict the relationship between PSC trough level at steady state and bIFI. A total of 434 patients with myeloid malignancy who received PSC tablets were screened. A total of 10 patients with bIFI were compared with 208 non-IFI patients. There were four proven and six probable IFI cases, nine due to Aspergillus, and one due to Fusarium species. The bIFI patients had higher in-hospital mortality (30.0%) than the non-IFI patients (1.9%; P < 0.001). History of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (odds ratio [OR] 6.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63-24.09), prolonged neutropenia ≥28 days (OR 4.33; 95% CI 1.20-15.70), and low plasma PSC concentration <0.7 µg/ml (OR 16.33; 95% CI 4.15-64.26) were risk factors for bIFI. The optimal cutoff value of plasma PSC concentration predicting bIFI was 0.765 µg/ml (sensitivity, 60.0%; specificity, 91.3%; area under the curve, 0.746). bIFI was not uncommon in patients with myeloid malignancy receiving PSC tablet prophylaxis and associated with poor outcomes. Therapeutic drug monitoring may still be necessary, even in patients receiving PSC tablets.

Invasive fungal infections increase mortality in acute myeloid leukemia patients. This study investigated breakthrough invasive fungal infection cases in patients receiving posaconazole tablet prophylaxis. Our results will contribute to improving the outcome of patients with myeloid malignancy.

Risk factors and clinical outcomes of cytomegalovirus diseases in hematologic malignancy patients without hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation.

PURPOSE: This study aims to evaluate the risk factors and prognosis for CMV diseases in hematologic malignancy patients without hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT). METHODS: We performed a case-control study (1:2) between 2012 and 2022. Adults with pathologic-confirmed CMV diseases (n=60) among hematologic malignancy patients were matched and compared to whom without CMV disease. RESULTS: Lymphoma was the most common underlying malignancy, and gastrointestinal tract involvement was the most common CMV disease. In the case group, high-dose steroid administration and transfusion within one month before diagnosis were higher (p<0.001). Steroid administration (aOR=5.78; 95% confidence interval: 1.25-26.68, p=0.024), red blood cell transfusion within one month (aOR=14.63; 2.75-77.76, p=0.002), low BMI (aOR=13.46, 2.07-87.45, p=0.006), and hypoalbuminemia (aOR=26.48, 5.93-118.17, p<0.001) were independent risk factors associated with CMV disease. The 30-day mortality was higher in the case group and CMV disease was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (aOR=14.41, 3.23-64.31, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: In hematologic malignancy patients without HSCT, risk factors for CMV organ disease included high-dose steroid administration and RBC transfusion within one month, low BMI, and hypoalbuminemia. Overall mortality was significantly higher with CMV disease, and CMV disease occurrence was a significant risk factor for mortality.

Nationwide Trends in Non-COVID-19 Infectious Disease Laboratory Tests in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Korea.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has brought significant changes to infectious disease management globally. This study explored changes in clinical microbiological testing trends and their implications for infectious disease incidence and medical utilization during the pandemic. We collected nationwide claims for monthly clinical microbiology tests from January 2018 to March 2022 using the National Health Insurance Service database. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were employed to make predictions for each disease based on the baseline period (January 2018 to January 2020). The results showed a significant decrease in general bacterial and fungal cultures, respiratory infectious disease-related, and inflammatory markers, while the representatives of tests for vector-borne diseases, healthcare-associated infections, and chronic viral infections remained stable. The study highlights the potential of clinical microbiological testing trends as an additional surveillance tool and offers implications for future infectious disease management and surveillance strategies in pandemic settings.

Clinical Utility of Sero-Immunological Responses Against SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Protein During Subsequent Prevalence of Wild-Type, Delta Variant, and Omicron Variant.

As nucleocapsid protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is immunogenic but not targeted in vaccines, it could be useful in distinguishing natural infection from vaccination. We aimed to investigate the clinical utility of sero-immunological responses against the nucleocapsid protein. Nucleocapsid antibody immunoassay study with 302 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients showed lower titers in immunocompromised patients (P < 0.001), higher titers in higher severity (P = 0.031), and different seroconversion rates and titers according to variants of concern. Longitudinal evaluation of nucleocapsid antibodies using 513 samples from 291 COVID-19 patients revealed that it could persist up to 556 days from symptom onset. Interferon gamma release assay against the nucleocapsid protein showed poor response, precluding the deduction of a cut-off for the nucleocapsid protein. In conclusion, nucleocapsid antibody provides instructive clues about the immunogenicity of nucleocapsid proteins by different seroconversion rates and titers according to the severity of infection, host immune status, and different variants of concern.

Loss of Neutralizing Activity of Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab (Evusheld™) Against Omicron BN.1, a Dominant Circulating Strain Following BA.5 During the Seventh Domestic Outbreak in Korea in Early 2023.

Tixagevimab/cilgavimab is a monoclonal antibody used to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 among immunocompromised hosts and maintained neutralizing activity against early omicron variants. Omicron BN.1 became a dominant circulating strain in Korea early 2023, but its susceptibility to tixagevimab/cilgavimab is unclear. We conducted plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) against BN.1 in a prospective cohort (14 patients and 30 specimens). BN.1 PRNT was conducted for one- and three-months after tixagevimab/cilgavimab administration and the average PRNT ND50 of each point was lower than the positive cut-off value of 20 (12.9 ± 4.5 and 13.2 ± 4.2, respectively, P = 0.825). In the paired analyses, tixagevimab/cilgavimab-administered sera could not actively neutralize BN.1 (PRNT ND50 11.5 ± 2.9, P = 0.001), compared with the reserved activity against BA.5 (ND50 310.5 ± 180.4). Unlike virus-like particle assay, tixagevimab/cilgavimab was not active against BN.1 in neutralizing assay, and would not be effective in the present predominance of BA.2.75 sublineages.

Two Years of Experience and Methodology of Korean COVID-19 Living Clinical Practice Guideline Development.

BACKGROUND: In Korea, during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we responded to the uncertainty of treatments under various conditions, consistently playing catch up with the speed of evidence updates. Therefore, there was high demand for national-level evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for clinicians in a timely manner. We developed evidence-based and updated living recommendations for clinicians through a transparent development process and multidisciplinary expert collaboration. METHODS: The National Evidence-based Healthcare Collaborating Agency (NECA) and the Korean Academy of Medical Sciences (KAMS) collaborated to develop trustworthy Korean living guidelines. The NECA-supported methodological sections and 8 professional medical societies of the KAMS worked with clinical experts, and 31 clinicians were involved annually. We developed a total of 35 clinical questions, including medications, respiratory/critical care, pediatric care, emergency care, diagnostic tests, and radiological examinations. RESULTS: An evidence-based search for treatments began in March 2021 and monthly updates were performed. It was expanded to other areas, and the search interval was organized by a steering committee owing to priority changes. Evidence synthesis and recommendation review was performed by researchers, and living recommendations were updated within 3-4 months. CONCLUSION: We provided timely recommendations on living schemes and disseminated them to the public, policymakers and various stakeholders using webpages and social media. Although the output was successful, there were some limitations. The rigor of development issues, urgent timelines for public dissemination, education for new developers, and spread of several new COVID-19 variants have worked as barriers. Therefore, we must prepare systematic processes and funding for future pandemics.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic parameters of vancomycin for predicting clinical outcome of enterococcal bacteremia.

PURPOSE: To find pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic parameters of vancomycin associated with the optimal outcome of severe infection due to Enterococcus species. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed enterococcal bacteremia cases treated with vancomycin from January 2015 to December 2020. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We calculated cutoff values of the ratio of vancomycin area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h to the minimum inhibitory concentration (AUC24/MIC) and trough concentration (Ctrough) during the initial 72 h of treatment. The optimal cutoff value was determined using the Youden index. Binary variables created based on these cutoffs were further assessed using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: A total of 65 patients were included. The majority (87.7%) had solid or hematologic malignancies. Thirty-day mortality and nephrotoxicity occurred in nine (13.4%) and 14 (21.5%) patients, respectively. Both vancomycin AUC24/MIC and Ctrough showed fair performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC of receiver-operator curve for AUC24/MIC, 0.712; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.539-0.886; AUC for Ctrough, 0.760; 95% CI 0.627-0.892; pairwise AUC comparison: p = 0.570). Ctrough ≥ 13.94 µg/mL, but not AUC24/MIC ≥ 504, had a significant association with 30-day mortality after adjusting for confounders (odds ratio, 8.40; 95% CI 1.60-86.62; p = 0.010). CONCLUSION: Mean Ctrough ≥ 13.94 µg/mL during the initial 72 h was associated with higher 30-day mortality in enterococcal bacteremia. Further studies are warranted to elucidate optimal pharmacokinetic targets for enterococcal bacteremia.

Fatal Prototheca zopfii Algaemia in a Patient with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: a Case Report.

BACKGROUND: Prototheca algaemia is a rare but life-threatening disease that occurs primarily in immunocompromised patients. We report a fatal case of Prototheca zopfii bloodstream infection in a 54-year-old woman receiving chemotherapy for relapsed acute lymphoblastic leukemia. METHODS: The isolate was identified using an automated biochemical identification system (VITEK 2; bioMerieux) and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (VITEK MS; bioMerieux). Partial 18S and 28S rDNA sequencing was performed for definitive identification and genotyping. RESULTS: The patient had persistent neutropenic fever, and isolates from blood culture were identified as P. zopfii. Sequencing was performed and the isolate was confirmed to be P. zopfii genotype 2, which was newly named as P. bovis. The patient was treated with liposomal amphotericin B but died of septic shock. CONCLUSIONS: Prototheca spp. should be considered an emerging pathogen, especially in immunocompromised patients, due to its ubiquitous nature.

Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea.

BACKGROUND: With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. METHODS: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. RESULTS: Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Outbreak Without Influenza in the Second Year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A National Sentinel Surveillance in Korea, 2021-2022 Season.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate whether respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (IFV) infections would occur in 2021-2022 as domestic nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are easing. METHODS: Data were collected from the Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System database. The weekly positivity rates of respiratory viruses and number of hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections were evaluated (January 2016-2022). The period from February 2020 to January 2022 was considered the NPI period. The autoregressive integrated moving average model and Poisson analysis were used for data analysis. Data from 14 countries/regions that reported positivity rates of RSV and IFV were also investigated. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-NPI period, the positivity and hospitalization rates for IFV infection during 2021-2022 significantly decreased to 0.0% and 1.0%, respectively, at 0.0% and 1.2% of the predicted values, respectively. The RSV infection positivity rate in 2021-2022 was 1.8-fold higher than that in the pre-NPI period at 1.5-fold the predicted value. The hospitalization rate for RSV was 20.0% of that in the pre-NPI period at 17.6% of the predicted value. The re-emergence of RSV and IFV infections during 2020-2021 was observed in 13 and 4 countries, respectively. CONCLUSION: During 2021-2022, endemic transmission of the RSV, but not IFV, was observed in Korea.

Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine whether NPIs led to the decline in the incidences of respiratory infections. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, ecological study using a nationwide notifiable diseases database and a respiratory virus sample surveillance collected from January 2016 through July 2020 in the Republic of Korea. Intervention period was defined as February-July 2020, when the government implemented NPIs nationwide. Observed incidences in the intervention period were compared with the predicted incidences by an autoregressive integrated moving average model and the 4-year mean cumulative incidences (CuIs) in the same months of the preintervention period. RESULTS: Five infectious diseases met the inclusion criteria: chickenpox, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, and pertussis. The incidences of chickenpox and mumps during the intervention period were significantly lower than the prediction model. The CuIs (95% confidence interval) of chickenpox and mumps were 36.4% (23.9-76.3%) and 63.4% (48.0-93.3%) of the predicted values. Subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in the incidence was universal for chickenpox, while mumps showed a marginal reduction among those aged <18 years, but not in adults. The incidence of respiratory viruses was significantly lower than both the predicted incidence (19.5%; 95% confidence interval, 11.8-55.4%) and the 4-year mean CuIs in the preintervention period (24.5%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of NPIs was associated with a significant reduction in the incidences of several respiratory infections in Korea.