Compliance with local travel restrictions and face masks during first phase of COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland: a national survey.

BACKGROUND: This study examines compliance with local travel restrictions and assesses early uptake of mask wearing, during the initial phase of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Ireland, to inform the ongoing outbreak response. METHODS: A series of four nationally representative telephone surveys were developed. Information was collected at a household level and from primary respondents. Multivariable logistic regression estimated the association between sociodemographic characteristics and compliance with the local travel restriction and with mask use in primary respondents. RESULTS: Household compliance with local travel restrictions was similar by region, household size and social position. 73.4% of all household members complied, with high levels maintained over time. Higher proportions reported travelling for non-permitted reasons with time. Older age, female gender and attending higher education were independently associated with compliance to local travel restrictions. Among primary respondents, no factors were independently associated with mask use. CONCLUSION: High compliance with local travel restrictions during the early stages of the pandemic demonstrates the engagement of the population with public health guidance. Although high compliance with local travel restrictions was generally maintained over time, non-permitted activities increased. Early adoption of mask use before required by national policy or legislation provides further evidence of the responsiveness of the population.

Deterministic and stochastic effects in spreading dynamics: A case study of bovine viral diarrhea.

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a disease in cattle with complex transmission dynamics that causes substantial economic losses and affects animal welfare. The infection can be transient or persistent. The mostly asymptomatic persistently infected hosts are the main source for transmission of the virus. This characteristic makes it difficult to control the spreading of BVD. We develop a deterministic compartmental model for the spreading dynamics of BVD within a herd and derive the basic reproduction number. This epidemiological quantity indicates that identification and removal of persistently infected animals is a successful control strategy if the transmission rate of transiently infected animals is small. Removing persistently infected animals from the herd at birth results in recurrent outbreaks with decreasing peak prevalence. We propose a stochastic version of the compartmental model that includes stochasticity in the transmission parameters. This stochasticity leads to sustained oscillations in cases where the deterministic model predicts oscillations with decreasing amplitude. The results provide useful information for the design of control strategies.

A metapopulation network model for the spreading of SARS-CoV-2: Case study for Ireland.

We present preliminary results on an all-Ireland network modelling approach to simulate the spreading the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), commonly known as the coronavirus. In the model, nodes correspond to locations or communities that are connected by links indicating travel and commuting between different locations. While this proposed modelling framework can be applied on all levels of spatial granularity and different countries, we consider Ireland as a case study. The network comprises 3440 electoral divisions (EDs) of the Republic of Ireland and 890 superoutput areas (SOAs) for Northern Ireland, which corresponds to local administrative units below the NUTS 3 regions. The local dynamics within each node follows a phenomenological SIRX compartmental model including classes of Susceptibles, Infected, Recovered and Quarantined (X) inspired from Science 368, 742 (2020). For better comparison to empirical data, we extended that model by a class of Deaths. We consider various scenarios including the 5-phase roadmap for Ireland. In addition, as proof of concept, we investigate the effect of dynamic interventions that aim to keep the number of infected below a given threshold. This is achieved by dynamically adjusting containment measures on a national scale, which could also be implemented at a regional (county) or local (ED/SOA) level. We find that - in principle - dynamic interventions are capable to limit the impact of future waves of outbreaks, but on the downside, in the absence of a vaccine, such a strategy can last several years until herd immunity is reached.

Mental health following an initial period of COVID-19 restrictions: findings from a cross-sectional survey in the Republic of Ireland.

Background: We assessed the mental health of individuals in the general population, during an initial period of easing of COVID-19 restrictions in the Republic of Ireland (RoI). Methods: Data were collected through a nationally representative cross-sectional telephone survey, during the first period of easing of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic between May and July 2020. Mental health was examined using the Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety Depression Scale. Poisson regression analyses were conducted to estimate risk ratios with robust variance estimation of the association between selected demographic factors and the risk of having depression and anxiety symptoms. Results: Of the 1,983 participants, 27.7% (n = 549; 95% CI: 0.26 - 0.30) reported depression and anxiety symptoms, while 74 (3.8%; 95% CI: 0.03 - 0.05) disclosed self-harm and/or suicidal thoughts. Females (RR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.37 - 1.87, p < 0.0005), employed individuals who experienced a change in work status (RR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.24 - 1.82, p < 0.0005), participants cocooning due to a health condition (RR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.08 - 1.66, p< 0.01), participants who were self-isolating (RR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.51, p=0.025) and moderate-heavy drinkers (RR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.09 - 1.47, p<0.01) were at increased risk of depression and anxiety. Young people aged 18-29 years and those in the two lowest income categories were most likely to report self-harm and/or suicidal thoughts. Conclusion: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, with further waves and associated restrictions, the impact on mental health in the population as a whole and in specific subgroups must be considered. Study protocol registration: doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13103.2.

Covid-19 Estimating the burden of symptomatic disease in the community and the impact of public health measures on physical, mental and social wellbeing: a study protocol.

Introduction: Covid-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020. Since then, governments have implemented unprecedented public health measures to contain the virus. This study will provide evidence to inform responses to the pandemic by: i) estimating population prevalence and trends of self-reported symptoms of Covid-19 and the proportions of symptomatic individuals and household contacts testing positive for Covid-19; ii) describing acceptance and compliance with physical-distancing measures, explore effects of public health measures on physical, mental and social wellbeing; iii) developing a mathematical network model to inform decisions on the optimal levels of physical distancing measures. Methods: Two cross-sectional nationally-representative telephone surveys will be conducted in Ireland using random digit-dialling, with response rates estimates based on proportion of non-operational and non-answering numbers. The first survey with four waves in May and June will address adherence to social distancing measures and whether the respondent or other household members are or have been unwell during the preceding two weeks with one or more symptoms of Covid-19. The second survey with three waves in June, July and September will address knowledge, attitudes, and compliance towards physical-distancing measures and physical, mental and social wellbeing. The mathematical network model will be developed for all-Ireland (on various levels of spatial granularity including the scale of counties and electoral divisions) based on outputs from both cross-sectional surveys and relevant publicly available data to inform decisions on optimal levels and duration of physical distancing measures. Discussion: This study will contribute to our understanding of the impact and sustainability of public health measures of the Covid-19 pandemic. Findings will have long-lasting benefits, informing decision-making on the best levels, and duration of physical-distancing measures, balancing a range of factors including capacity of the health service with the effects on individuals' wellbeing and economic disruption. Findings will be shared with key policy-makers.