Flexible Approaches Based on Multistate Models and Microsimulation to Perform Real-World Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: An Application to Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin-Kexin Type 9 Inhibitors.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to show the application of flexible statistical methods in real-world cost-effectiveness analyses applied in the cardiovascular field, focusing specifically on the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors for hyperlipidemia. METHODS: The proposed method allowed us to use an electronic health database to emulate a target trial for cost-effectiveness analysis using multistate modeling and microsimulation. We formally established the study design and provided precise definitions of the causal measures of interest while also outlining the assumptions necessary for accurately estimating these measures using the available data. Additionally, we thoroughly considered goodness-of-fit assessments and sensitivity analyses of the decision model, which are crucial to capture the complexity of individuals' healthcare pathway and to enhance the validity of this type of health economic models. RESULTS: In the disease model, the Markov assumption was found to be inadequate, and a "time-reset" timescale was implemented together with the use of a time-dependent variable to incorporate past hospitalization history. Furthermore, the microsimulation decision model demonstrated a satisfying goodness of fit, as evidenced by the consistent results obtained in the short-term horizon compared with a nonmodel-based approach. Notably, proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors revealed their favorable cost-effectiveness only in the long-term follow-up, with a minimum willingness to pay of 39 000 Euro/life years gained. CONCLUSIONS: The approach demonstrated its significant utility in several ways. Unlike nonmodel-based or alternative model-based methods, it enabled to (1) investigate long-term cost-effectiveness comprehensively, (2) use an appropriate disease model that aligns with the specific problem under study, and (3) conduct subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses to gain more targeted insights.

Amyloidosis and Amyloidogenesis: One Name, Many Diseases.

Amyloidosis is a heterogenous group of disorders, caused by the deposition of insoluble fibrils derived from misfolded proteins in the extracellular space of various organs. These proteins have an unstable structure that causes them to misfold, aggregate, and deposit as amyloid fibrils with the pathognomonic histologic property of green birefringence when viewed under cross-polarized light after staining with Congo red. Amyloid fibrils are insoluble and degradation-resistant; resistance to catabolism results in progressive tissue amyloid accumulation. The outcome of this process is organ disfunction independently from the type of deposited protein, however there can be organ that are specifically targeted from certain proteins.

Predicting left ventricular functional recovery in ischaemic cardiomyopathy: needs and challenges.

Left ventricular (LV) systolic function is an essential parameter for the evaluation of patients with ischaemic heart disease, and therapeutic choices are significantly driven by LV ejection fraction (LVEF) in the early stage of the disease and during follow-up. After an acute coronary syndrome, ventricular dysfunction may be reversible when caused by transient myocardial stunning. Therefore, the identification of clinical, laboratory, and instrumental predictors of improvement in LV systolic function (in addition to LVEF) is essential for an adequate prognostic stratification. In the setting of chronic ischaemic heart disease, there is no evidence that an improvement in LV systolic function is invariably associated with a better prognosis and LVEF is only one of many parameters that should be considered for the risk stratification. This state-of-the-art review will critically analyse the scientific evidence regarding known predictors of LVEF recovery, trying to elucidate their pathophysiological principles and clinical value.

Effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors: A Target Trial Emulation framework based on Real-World Electronic Health Records.

Low-Density Lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol is one of the main target for cardiovascular (CV) prevention and therapy. In the last years, Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin-Kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9-i) has emerged as a key therapeutic target to lower LDL and were introduced for prevention of CV events. Recently (June 2022) the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) modified the eligibility criteria for the use of PCSK9-i. We designed an observational study to estimate the prevalence of eligible subjects and evaluate the effectiveness of PCSK9-i applying a Target Trial Emulation (TTE) approach based on Electronic Health Records (EHR). Subjects meeting the eligibility criteria were identified from July 2017 (when PCSK9-i became available) to December 2020. Outcomes were all-cause death and the first hospitalization. Among eligible subjects, we identified those treated at date of the first prescription. Inverse Probability of Treatment Weights (IPTW) were estimated including demographic and clinical covariates, history of treatment with statins and the month/year eligibility date. Competing risk models on weighted cohorts were used to derive the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) in subgroups of interest. Out of 1976 eligible subjects, 161 (8%) received treatment with PCSK9-i. Treated individuals were slightly younger, predominantly male, had more severe CV conditions, and were more often treated with statin compared to the untreated subjects. The latter exhibited a higher prevalence of non-CV comorbidities. A significant absolute and relative risk reduction of death and a lower relative risk for the first hospitalization was observed. The risk reduction for death was confirmed in CATE analysis. PCSk9-i were prescribed to a minority of eligible subjects. Within the TTE framework, the analysis confirmed the association between PCSK9-i and lower risk of events, aligning with findings from randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In our study, PCSK9-i provided protection specifically against all-cause death, expanding upon the evidence from RCTs that had primarily focused on composite CV outcomes.