Association of Low Glomerular Filtration Rate With Adverse Outcomes at Older Age in a Large Population With Routinely Measured Cystatin C.

BACKGROUND: The commonly accepted threshold of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to define chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. This threshold is based partly on associations between estimated GFR (eGFR) and the frequency of adverse outcomes. The association is weaker in older adults, which has created disagreement about the appropriateness of the threshold for these persons. In addition, the studies measuring these associations included relatively few outcomes and estimated GFR on the basis of creatinine level (eGFRcr), which may be less accurate in older adults. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations in older adults between eGFRcr versus eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C levels (eGFRcr-cys) and 8 outcomes. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Stockholm, Sweden, 2010 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 82 154 participants aged 65 years or older with outpatient creatinine and cystatin C testing. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT); incidence rate ratios for recurrent hospitalizations, infection, myocardial infarction or stroke, heart failure, and acute kidney injury. RESULTS: The associations between eGFRcr-cys and outcomes were monotonic, but most associations for eGFRcr were U-shaped. In addition, eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with outcomes than eGFRcr. For example, the adjusted hazard ratios for 60 versus 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 for all-cause mortality were 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.3) for eGFRcr-cys and 1.0 (CI, 0.9 to 1.0) for eGFRcr, and for KFRT they were 2.6 (CI, 1.2 to 5.8) and 1.4 (CI, 0.7 to 2.8), respectively. Similar findings were observed in subgroups, including those with a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio below 30 mg/g. LIMITATION: No GFR measurements. CONCLUSION: Compared with low eGFRcr in older patients, low eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with adverse outcomes and the associations were more uniform. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swedish Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.

VALOR-CKD: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Trial Evaluating Veverimer in Slowing Progression of CKD in Patients with Metabolic Acidosis.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Metabolic acidosis is a common complication of CKD and is associated with more rapid decline of kidney function, but well-powered controlled randomized trials testing the effect of treating metabolic acidosis on slowing CKD progression have not been conducted. The VALOR-CKD study randomized 1480 individuals with CKD and metabolic acidosis, across 320 sites to placebo or veverimer (a novel hydrochloric acid binder). The findings did not demonstrate the efficacy of veverimer in slowing CKD progression, but the difference in serum bicarbonate between placebo and drug arms was only approximately 1 mEq/L. Veverimer was safe and well tolerated. BACKGROUND: Metabolic acidosis is common in CKD, but whether its treatment slows CKD progression is unknown. Veverimer, a novel hydrochloric acid binder that removes acid from the gastrointestinal tract, leads to an increase in serum bicarbonate. METHODS: In a phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, patients with CKD (eGFR of 20-40 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and metabolic acidosis (serum bicarbonate of 12-20 mEq/L) from 35 countries were randomized to veverimer or placebo. The primary outcome was the composite end point of CKD progression, defined as the development of ESKD (kidney transplantation or maintenance dialysis), a sustained decline in eGFR of ≥40% from baseline, or death due to kidney failure. RESULTS: The mean (±SD) baseline eGFR was 29.2±6.3 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and serum bicarbonate was 17.5±1.4 mEq/L; this increased to 23.4±2.0 mEq/L after the active treatment run-in. After randomized withdrawal, the mean serum bicarbonate was 22.0±3.0 mEq/L and 20.9±3.3 mEq/L in the veverimer and placebo groups at month 3, and this approximately 1 mEq/L difference remained stable for the first 24 months. A primary end point event occurred in 149/741 and 148/739 patients in the veverimer and placebo groups, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 1.2; P = 0.90). Serious and overall adverse event incidence did not differ between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD and metabolic acidosis, treatment with veverimer did not slow CKD progression. The lower than expected bicarbonate separation may have hindered the ability to test the hypothesis. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: VALOR-CKD, NCT03710291 .

Association between Acute Declines in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate during Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibition and Risk of Adverse Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Declines in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) occur commonly when renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors are started. Our objective was to determine the relation between declines in estimated GFR during trials of RAS inhibition and kidney outcomes. METHODS: We included participants with CKD (estimated GFR<60 mL/min/1.73m2) from 16 trials of RAS inhibition. The exposure was subacute declines in estimated GFR expressed as % change between randomization and month 3, and in the subset of trials with data available, we also examined % change in eGFR between randomization and month 1. The primary outcome was kidney failure with replacement therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between subacute declines in eGFR and risk of kidney failure. We used spline models to identify the threshold of change in eGFR below which RAS inhibition was favorable (conservatively comparing a given decline in eGFR with RAS inhibition to no decline in the comparator). RESULTS: 11,800 individuals with mean eGFR 43 (SD 11) mL/min/1.73m2 and median urine albumin/creatinine ratio of 362 mg/g (IQR 50, 1367) were included, and 1,162 (10%) developed kidney failure. The threshold of decline in eGFR that favored use of RAS inhibitors for kidney failure was estimated to be up to 13% (95%CI 8%, 17%) over a 3-month interval and up to 21% (95%CI 15%, 27%) over a 1-month interval after starting RAS inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: In people treated with RAS inhibitors, ≤ 13% decline in eGFR over a 3-month period or ≤21% decline over a 1-month period was associated with lower risk of kidney failure compared with no decline with the use of placebo or other agents.

Associations of Apixaban Dose With Safety and Effectiveness Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Severe Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for apixaban dosing on the basis of kidney function are inconsistent between the US Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency for patients with atrial fibrillation. Optimal apixaban dosing in chronic kidney disease remains unknown. METHODS: With the use of deidentified electronic health record data from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse, patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease stage 4/5 initiating apixaban between 2013 and 2021 were identified. Risks of bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism were compared by apixaban dose (5 versus 2.5 mg), adjusted for baseline characteristics by the inverse probability of treatment weighting. The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to account for the competing risk of death. Cox regression was used to examine risk of death by apixaban dose. RESULTS: Among 4313 apixaban new users, 1705 (40%) received 5 mg and 2608 (60%) received 2.5 mg. Patients treated with 5 mg apixaban were younger (mean age, 72 versus 80 years), with greater weight (95 versus 80 kg) and higher serum creatinine (2.7 versus 2.5 mg/dL). Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was not different between the groups (24 versus 24 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2). In inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis, apixaban 5 mg was associated with a higher risk of bleeding (incidence rate 4.9 versus 2.9 events per 100 person-years; incidence rate difference, 2.0 [95% CI, 0.6-3.4] events per 100 person-years; subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.04-2.54]). There was no difference between apixaban 5 mg and 2.5 mg groups in the risk of stroke/systemic embolism (3.3 versus 3.0 events per 100 person-years; incidence rate difference, 0.2 [95% CI, -1.0 to 1.4] events per 100 person-years; subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.59-1.73]), or death (9.9 versus 9.4 events per 100 person-years; incidence rate difference, 0.5 [95% CI, -1.6 to 2.6] events per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.77-1.38]). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with 2.5 mg, use of 5 mg apixaban was associated with a higher risk of bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and severe chronic kidney disease, with no difference in the risk of stroke/systemic embolism or death, supporting the apixaban dosing recommendations on the basis of kidney function by the European Medicines Agency, which differ from those issued by the US Food and Drug Administration.

Evaluation of novel candidate filtration markers from a global metabolomic discovery for glomerular filtration rate estimation.

Creatinine and cystatin-C are recommended for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) but accuracy is suboptimal. Here, using untargeted metabolomics data, we sought to identify candidate filtration markers for a new targeted assay using a novel approach based on their maximal joint association with measured GFR (mGFR) and with flexibility to consider their biological properties. We analyzed metabolites measured in seven diverse studies encompasing 2,851 participants on the Metabolon H4 platform that had Pearson correlations with log mGFR and used a stepwise approach to develop models to < -0.5 estimate mGFR with and without inclusion of creatinine that enabled selection of candidate markers. In total, 456 identified metabolites were present in all studies, and 36 had correlations with mGFR < -0.5. A total of 2,225 models were developed that included these metabolites; all with lower root mean square errors and smaller coefficients for demographic variables compared to estimates using untargeted creatinine. Seventeen metabolites were chosen, including 12 new candidate filtration markers. The selected metabolites had strong associations with mGFR and little dependence on demographic factors. Candidate metabolites were identified with maximal joint association with mGFR and minimal dependence on demographic variables across many varied clinical settings. These metabolites are excreted in urine and represent diverse metabolic pathways and tubular handling. Thus, our data can be used to select metabolites for a multi-analyte eGFR determination assay using mass spectrometry that potentially offers better accuracy and is less prone to non-GFR determinants than the current eGFR biomarkers.

A meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials implications of acute treatment effects on glomerular filtration rate for long-term kidney protection.

Pharmacologic interventions to slow chronic kidney disease progression, such as ACE-inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, or sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors, often produce acute treatment effects on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) that differ from their long-term chronic treatment effects. Observational studies assessing the implications of acute effects cannot distinguish acute effects from GFR changes unrelated to the treatment. Here, we performed meta-regression analysis of multiple trials to isolate acute effects to determine their long-term implications. In 64 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), enrolling 154,045 participants, we estimated acute effects as the mean between-group difference in GFR slope from baseline to three months, effects on chronic GFR slope (starting at three months after randomization), and effects on three composite kidney endpoints defined by kidney failure (GFR 15 ml/min/1.73m2 or less, chronic dialysis, or kidney transplantation) or sustained GFR declines of 30%, 40% or 57% decline, respectively. We used Bayesian meta-regression to relate acute effects with treatment effects on chronic slope and the composite kidney endpoints. Overall, acute effects were not associated with treatment effects on chronic slope. Acute effects were associated with the treatment effects on composite kidney outcomes such that larger negative acute effects were associated with lesser beneficial effects on the composite kidney endpoints. Associations were stronger when the kidney composite endpoints were defined by smaller thresholds of GFR decline (30% or 40%). Results were similar in a subgroup of interventions with supposedly hemodynamic effects that acutely reduce GFR. For studies with GFR 60 mL/min/1.73m2 or under, negative acute effects were associated with larger beneficial effects on chronic GFR slope. Thus, our data from a large and diverse set of RCTs suggests that acute effects of interventions may influence the treatment effect on clinical kidney outcomes.

Executive summary of the KDIGO 2024 Clinical Practice Guideline for the Evaluation and Management of Chronic Kidney Disease: known knowns and known unknowns.

The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline for the Evaluation and Management of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) updates the KDIGO 2012 guideline and has been developed with patient partners, clinicians, and researchers around the world, using robust methodology. This update, based on a substantially broader base of evidence than has previously been available, reflects an exciting time in nephrology. New therapies and strategies have been tested in large and diverse populations that help to inform care; however, this guideline is not intended for people receiving dialysis nor those who have a kidney transplant. The document is sensitive to international considerations, CKD across the lifespan, and discusses special considerations in implementation. The scope includes chapters dedicated to the evaluation and risk assessment of people with CKD, management to delay CKD progression and its complications, medication management and drug stewardship in CKD, and optimal models of CKD care. Treatment approaches and actionable guideline recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant studies and appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations which followed the "Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation" (GRADE) approach. The limitations of the evidence are discussed. The guideline also provides practice points, which serve to direct clinical care or activities for which a systematic review was not conducted, and it includes useful infographics and describes an important research agenda for the future. It targets a broad audience of people with CKD and their healthcare, while being mindful of implications for policy and payment.

New Creatinine- and Cystatin C-Based Equations to Estimate GFR without Race.

BACKGROUND: Current equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that use serum creatinine or cystatin C incorporate age, sex, and race to estimate measured GFR. However, race in eGFR equations is a social and not a biologic construct. METHODS: We developed new eGFR equations without race using data from two development data sets: 10 studies (8254 participants, 31.5% Black) for serum creatinine and 13 studies (5352 participants, 39.7% Black) for both serum creatinine and cystatin C. In a validation data set of 12 studies (4050 participants, 14.3% Black), we compared the accuracy of new eGFR equations to measured GFR. We projected the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and GFR stages in a sample of U.S. adults, using current and new equations. RESULTS: In the validation data set, the current creatinine equation that uses age, sex, and race overestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.7 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 5.4) and to a lesser degree in non-Blacks (median, 0.5 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.9). When the adjustment for Black race was omitted from the current eGFR equation, measured GFR in Blacks was underestimated (median, 7.1 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.8). A new equation using age and sex and omitting race underestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.6 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5) and overestimated measured GFR in non-Blacks (median, 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 3.4 to 4.4). For all equations, 85% or more of the eGFRs for Blacks and non-Blacks were within 30% of measured GFR. New creatinine-cystatin C equations without race were more accurate than new creatinine equations, with smaller differences between race groups. As compared with the current creatinine equation, the new creatinine equations, but not the new creatinine-cystatin C equations, increased population estimates of CKD prevalence among Blacks and yielded similar or lower prevalence among non-Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: New eGFR equations that incorporate creatinine and cystatin C but omit race are more accurate and led to smaller differences between Black participants and non-Black participants than new equations without race with either creatinine or cystatin C alone. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.).

Glomerular Filtration Rate Estimation Using ß2-Microglobulin and ß-Trace Protein in Adults With Solid Tumors: A Prospective Cross-Sectional Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: ß2-Microglobulin (B2M) and ß-trace protein (BTP) are novel endogenous filtration markers that may improve the accuracy of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) beyond creatinine and cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys), but they have not been assessed in patients with cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort of 1,200 patients with active solid tumors recruited between April 2015 and September 2017. EXPOSURE: CKD-EPI equations without race combining B2M and/or BTP with creatinine with or without cystatin C (2-, 3-, or 4-marker panel eGFR). OUTCOME: Performance of equations compared with eGFRcr-cys and non-GFR determinants of serum B2M and BTP (SB2M, and SBTP, respectively). Measured GFR (mGFR) was determined using the plasma clearance of chromium-51 labeled ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid (51Cr-EDTA). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Bias was defined as the median of the differences between mGFR and eGFR, and 1-P30 was defined as the percentage of estimates that differed by more than 30% from the mGFR (1-P30). Linear regression was used to assess association of clinical and laboratory variables with SB2M, and SBTP after adjustment for mGFR. RESULTS: Mean age and mGFR were 58.8±13.2 SD years and 78.4±21.7 SD mL/min/1.73m2, respectively. Performance of the 3-marker and 4-marker panel equations was better than eGFRcr-cys (lesser bias and 1-P30). Performance of 2-marker panel equations was as good as eGFRcr-cys (lesser bias and similar 1-P30). SB2M and SBTP were not strongly influenced by cancer site. LIMITATIONS: Participants may have had better clinical performance status than the general population of patients with solid tumors. CONCLUSIONS: B2M and BTP can improve the accuracy of eGFR and may be useful as confirmatory tests in patients with solid tumors, either by inclusion in a multimarker panel equation with creatinine and cystatin C, or by substituting for cystatin C in combination with creatinine. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The most accurate method to assess estimate kidney function is estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using creatinine and cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys). We studied whether using ß2-microglobulin (B2M) and/or ß-trace protein (BTP) with creatinine with or without cystatin C (2-, 3-, or 4-marker panel eGFR) might be useful in patients with active solid tumors. The performance of the 3-marker and 4-marker panel equations was better than eGFRcr-cys. Performance of 2-marker panel equations was as good as eGFRcr-cys. We conclude that B2M and BTP can improve the accuracy of eGFR and may be useful as a confirmatory test in patients with solid tumors either by inclusion in multimarker panel equation with creatinine and cystatin C or by substituting for cystatin C in combination with creatinine.

Dihydropyridine Calcium Channel Blockers and Kidney Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Early trials of dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (DCCBs) suggest a detrimental effect on intraglomerular pressure and an association with albuminuria. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the associations of DCCB initiation with albuminuria and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and to determine whether renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockade modified these associations. DESIGN: We conducted a target trial emulation study using a new user, active comparator design and electronic health record data from Geisinger Health. PARTICIPANTS: We included patients without severe albuminuria or KFRT who were initiated on a DCCB or thiazide (active comparator) between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019. MAIN MEASURES: Using inverse probability of treatment weighting, we performed doubly robust Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the association of DCCB initiation with incident severe albuminuria (urine albumin to creatinine ratio > 300 mg/g) and KFRT, overall and stratified by RAS blocker use. KEY RESULTS: There were 11,747 and 26,758 eligible patients initiating a DCCB and thiazide, respectively, with a weighted baseline mean age of 60 years, systolic blood pressure of 143 mm Hg, and eGFR of 86 mL/min/1.73 m2, and with a mean follow-up of 8 years. Compared with thiazides, DCCBs were significantly associated with the development of severe albuminuria (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.43), with attenuation of risk in the presence of RAS blockade (P for interaction < 0.001). The risk of KFRT was increased among patients without RAS blockade (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.19-2.31), but not with RAS blockade (P for interaction = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: DCCBs were associated with increased risk of albuminuria and, in the absence of RAS blockade, KFRT. These findings suggest coupling DCCB therapy with RAS blockade may mitigate adverse kidney outcomes.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and the risk of atrial fibrillation in adults with diabetes: a real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) have cardiovascular benefits in type 2 diabetes, but none of the cardiovascular trials studied atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF) as a primary endpoint. Data from post-marketing surveillance studies remains sparse. OBJECTIVE: To examine the real-world risk of AF comparing GLP-1RA with other non-insulin glucose-lowering agents. DESIGN: Cohort study using de-identified electronic health record data from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients with diabetes who were newly prescribed add-on non-insulin glucose-lowering agents and were on metformin between 2005-2020. EXPOSURES: New users of GLP-1RA were separately compared with new users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), using 1:1 propensity score matching to adjust for differences in patient characteristics. MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was incident AF, defined and captured by diagnosis code for AF. Incidence rate difference (IRD) and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated in the matched cohorts. KEY RESULTS: In the matched cohort of 14,566 pairs of GLP-1RA and DPP4i followed for a median of 3.8 years, GLP-1RA use was associated with a lower risk of AF (IRD, -1.0; 95% CI, -1.8 to -0.2 per 1000 person-years; HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.96). In the matched cohort of 9,424 pairs of patients on GLP-1RA and SGLT2i with a median follow-up of 2.9 years, there was no difference in the risk for AF (IRD, 0.4; 95% CI -0.7 to 1.5 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.42). CONCLUSIONS: In this real-word study, GLP-1RA was associated with a lower risk of AF compared with DPP4i, but no difference compared with SGLT2i, suggesting that cardiovascular benefits of GLP-1RA use may extend to prevention for AF in patients with diabetes. Our findings call for future randomized controlled trials to focus on the effects of GLP-1RA on AF prevention.

Accuracy of GFR estimating equations based on creatinine, cystatin C or both in routine care.

BACKGROUND: New equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine (eGFRcr), cystatin C (eGFRcys) or both (eGFRcr-cys) have been developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC). There is a need to evaluate the performance of these equations in diverse European settings to inform implementation decisions, especially among people with key comorbid conditions. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study including 6174 adults referred for single-point plasma clearance of iohexol in Stockholm, Sweden, with 9579 concurrent measurements of creatinine and cystatin C. We assessed the performance of the CKD-EPI 2009/2012/2021, EKFC 2021/2023, revised Lund-Malmö (RLM) 2011 and Caucasian, Asian, Pediatric and Adult (CAPA) 2014 equations against measured GFR (mGFR). RESULTS: Mean age was 56 years, median mGFR was 62 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 40% were female. Comorbid conditions were common: cardiovascular disease (30%), liver disease (28%), diabetes (26%) and cancer (26%). All eGFRcr-cys equations had small bias and P30 (the percentage of estimated values within 30% of mGFR) close to 90%, and performed better than eGFRcr or eGFRcys equations. Among eGFRcr equations, CKD-EPI 2009 and CKD-EPI 2021 showed larger bias and lower P30 than EKFC 2021 and RLM. There were no meaningful differences in performance across eGFRcys equations. Findings were consistent across comorbid conditions, and eGFRcr-cys equations showed good performance in patients with liver disease, cancer and heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, eGFRcr-cys equations performed best, with minimal variation among equations in this Swedish cohort. The lower performance of CKD-EPI eGFRcr equations compared with EKFC and RLM may reflect differences in population characteristics and mGFR methods. Implementing eGFRcr equations will require a trade-off between accuracy and uniformity across regions.

Comparing Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression methods and evaluating the influence of priors for evaluations of surrogate endpoints on heterogeneous collections of clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Surrogate endpoints, such as those of interest in chronic kidney disease (CKD), are often evaluated using Bayesian meta-regression. Trials used for the analysis can evaluate a variety of interventions for different sub-classifications of disease, which can introduce two additional goals in the analysis. The first is to infer the quality of the surrogate within specific trial subgroups defined by disease or intervention classes. The second is to generate more targeted subgroup-specific predictions of treatment effects on the clinical endpoint. METHODS: Using real data from a collection of CKD trials and a simulation study, we contrasted surrogate endpoint evaluations under different hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Each approach we considered induces different assumptions regarding the relatedness (exchangeability) of trials within and between subgroups. These include partial-pooling approaches, which allow subgroup-specific meta-regressions and, yet, facilitate data adaptive information sharing across subgroups to potentially improve inferential precision. Because partial-pooling models come with additional parameters relative to a standard approach assuming one meta-regression for the entire set of studies, we performed analyses to understand the impact of the parameterization and priors with the overall goals of comparing precision in estimates of subgroup-specific meta-regression parameters and predictive performance. RESULTS: In the analyses considered, partial-pooling approaches to surrogate endpoint evaluation improved accuracy of estimation of subgroup-specific meta-regression parameters relative to fitting separate models within subgroups. A random rather than fixed effects approach led to reduced bias in estimation of meta-regression parameters and in prediction in subgroups where the surrogate was strong. Finally, we found that subgroup-specific meta-regression posteriors were robust to use of constrained priors under the partial-pooling approach, and that use of constrained priors could facilitate more precise prediction for clinical effects in trials of a subgroup not available for the initial surrogacy evaluation. CONCLUSION: Partial-pooling modeling strategies should be considered for surrogate endpoint evaluation on collections of heterogeneous studies. Fitting these models comes with additional complexity related to choosing priors. Constrained priors should be considered when using partial-pooling models when the goal is to predict the treatment effect on the clinical endpoint.

A Novel Creatinine Muscle Index Based on Creatinine Filtration: Associations with Frailty and Mortality.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Low muscle mass is related to frailty and increased mortality in older adults. However, muscle mass is not easily assessed in routine clinical practice. This paper describes a novel creatinine muscle index (CMI) on the basis of serum creatinine and cystatin C. CMI was moderately associated with frailty among older adults. A significantly higher proportion of individuals with weak grip strength were in the lowest tertile of CMI. The index was also associated with mortality. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that creatinine filtration may be an index of muscle mass, which may have utility in clinical practice. BACKGROUND: Low muscle mass is related to frailty and increased mortality in older adults. However, muscle mass is not easily assessed in routine clinical practice. METHODS: This study describes a novel creatinine muscle index (CMI) on the basis of serum creatinine and cystatin C in a community-based sample of older adults from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Analyses included 4639 participants who attended visit 5 (2011-2013) and 12,786 participants who attended visit 2 (1990-1992). CMI was defined as creatinine filtration (the product of serum creatinine times eGFR on the basis of cystatin C) and was analyzed in sex-specific tertiles. Cross-sectional associations of CMI with a frailty trichotomy, defined by the number (robust [0]/prefrail [1-2]/frail [3-5]) of five frailty components (weight loss, slowness, exhaustion, weakness, and low physical activity), were studied using polychotomous logistic regression and binary logistic regression with each frailty component. Cox regression was used to estimate associations of CMI at visit 5 and visit 2 with mortality. Models were adjusted for demographics, clinical variables, and comorbid conditions. RESULTS: CMI (tertile 1 versus 3) was moderately associated with frailty (visit 5: adjusted odds ratio 4.23 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.02 to 8.87] in men and 2.34 [95% CI, 1.41 to 3.89] in women) and with mortality (visit 5: adjusted hazard ratio 1.45 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.94] in men and 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13 to 2.12] in women; similar results were seen at visit 2). CONCLUSION: Lower CMI was associated with frailty and increased mortality, two clinical outcomes known to be associated with decreased muscle mass. Creatinine filtration may be an index of muscle mass and have utility in clinical practice, particularly at low levels.

Intensive BP Control in Patients with CKD and Risk for Adverse Outcomes.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Although most guidelines recommend tightly controlling BP in patients with CKD, individuals with advanced kidney disease or severe albuminuria were not well-represented in trials examining the effect of this intervention on kidney outcomes. To examine the effect of intensive BP control on the risk of kidney outcomes in patients with CKD, the authors pooled individual-level data from seven trials. They found that overall, intensive BP control was associated with a 13% lower, but not significant, risk of a kidney outcome. However, the intervention's effect on the kidney outcome differed depending on baseline eGFR. Data from this pooled analysis suggested a benefit of intensive BP control in delaying KRT onset in patients with stages 4-5 CKD, but not necessarily in those with stage 3 CKD. BACKGROUND: The effect of intensive BP lowering (to systolic BP of <120 mm Hg) on the risk of kidney failure requiring KRT remains unclear in patients with advanced CKD. Such patients were not well represented in trials evaluating intensive BP control. METHODS: To examine the effect of intensive BP lowering on KRT risk-or when not possible, trial-defined kidney outcomes-we pooled individual-level data from seven trials that included patients with eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . We performed prespecified subgroup analyses to evaluate the effect of intensive BP control by baseline albuminuria and eGFR (CKD stages 4-5 versus stage 3). RESULTS: Of 5823 trial participants, 526 developed the kidney outcome and 382 died. Overall, intensive (versus usual) BP control was associated with a lower risk of kidney outcome and death in unadjusted analyses but these findings did not achieve statistical significance. However, the intervention's effect on the kidney outcome differed depending on baseline eGFR ( P interaction=0.05). By intention-to-treat analysis, intensive (versus usual) BP control was associated with a 20% lower risk of the primary kidney outcome in those with CKD GFR stages 4-5, but not in CKD GFR stage 3. There was no interaction between intensive BP control and the severity of albuminuria for kidney outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Data from this pooled analysis of seven trials suggest a benefit of intensive BP control in delaying KRT onset in patients with stages 4-5 CKD but not necessarily with stage 3 CKD. These findings suggest no evidence of harm from intensive BP control, but also point to the need for future trials of BP targets focused on populations with advanced kidney disease. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/JASN/2023_02_27_JASN0000000000000060.mp3.

National Projections for Clinical Implications of Race-Free Creatinine-Based GFR Estimating Equations.

BACKGROUND: The National Kidney Foundation and American Society of Nephrology Task Force on Reassessing the Inclusion of Race in Diagnosing Kidney Disease recently recommended a new race-free creatinine-based equation for eGFR. The effect on recommended clinical care across race and ethnicity groups is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed nationally representative cross-sectional questionnaires and medical examinations from 44,360 participants collected between 2001 and 2018 by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We quantified the number and proportion of Black, White, Hispanic, and Asian/Other adults with guideline-recommended changes in care. RESULTS: The new equation, if applied nationally, could assign new CKD diagnoses to 434,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 350,000 to 517,000) Black adults, reclassify 584,000 (95% CI, 508,000 to 667,000) to more advanced stages of CKD, restrict kidney donation eligibility for 246,000 (95% CI, 189,000 to 303,000), expand nephrologist referrals for 41,800 (95% CI, 19,800 to 63,800), and reduce medication dosing for 222,000 (95% CI, 169,000 to 275,000). Among non-Black adults, these changes may undo CKD diagnoses for 5.51 million (95% CI, 4.86 million to 6.16 million), reclassify 4.59 million (95% CI, 4.28 million to 4.92 million) to less advanced stages of CKD, expand kidney donation eligibility for 3.96 million (95% CI, 3.46 million to 4.46 million), reverse nephrologist referral for 75,800 (95% CI, 35,400 to 116,000), and reverse medication dose reductions for 1.47 million (95% CI, 1.22 million to 1.73 million). The racial and ethnic mix of the populations used to develop eGFR equations has a substantial effect on potential care changes. CONCLUSION: The newly recommended 2021 CKD-EPI creatinine-based eGFR equation may result in substantial changes to recommended care for US patients of all racial and ethnic groups.

Accuracy of GFR Estimating Equations in Patients with Discordances between Creatinine and Cystatin C-Based Estimations.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Large discordances between eGFR on the basis of creatinine (eGFR cr ) or cystatin C (eGFR cys ) are common in clinical practice. However, which GFR estimating equation (eGFR cr , eGFR cys , or eGFR cr-cys ) is most accurate in these settings is not known. In this real-world study of 9404 concurrent measurements of creatinine, cystatin C, and iohexol clearance, all three equations performed similarly when eGFR cr and eGFR cys were similar (45% of cases). However, with large discordances (55% of cases), eGFR cr-cys was much more accurate than either alone. These findings were consistent among individuals with cardiovascular disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, liver disease, and cancer who have been underrepresented in research cohorts. Thus, when eGFR cr and eGFR cys are largely discordant in clinical practice, eGFR cr-cys is more accurate than eGFR cr or eGFR cys . BACKGROUND: Cystatin C is recommended as a confirmatory test to eGFR when more precise estimates are needed for clinical decision making. Although eGFR on the basis of both creatinine and cystatin (eGFR cr-cys ) is the most accurate estimate in research studies, it is uncertain whether this is true in real-world settings, particularly when there are large discordances between eGFR based on creatinine (eGFR cr ) and that based on cystatin C (eGFR cys ). METHODS: We included 6185 adults referred for measured GFR (mGFR) using plasma clearance of iohexol in Stockholm, Sweden, who had 9404 concurrent measurements of creatinine, cystatin C, and iohexol clearance. The performance of eGFR cr , eGFR cys , and eGFR cr-cys was assessed against mGFR with median bias, P30 , and correct classification of GFR categories. We stratified analyses within three categories: eGFR cys at least 20% lower than eGFR cr (eGFR cys eGFR cr ). RESULTS: eGFR cr and eGFR cys were similar in 4226 (45%) samples, and among these samples all three estimating equations performed similarly. By contrast, eGFR cr-cys was much more accurate in cases of discordance. For example, when eGFR cys eGFR cr (8% of samples), the median biases were -4.5, 8.4, and 1.4 ml/min per 1.73m 2 . The findings were consistent among individuals with cardiovascular disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, liver disease, and cancer. CONCLUSIONS: When eGFR cr and eGFR cys are highly discordant in clinical practice, eGFR cr-cys is more accurate than either eGFR cr or eGFR cys .

CKD-EPI and EKFC GFR Estimating Equations: Performance and Other Considerations for Selecting Equations for Implementation in Adults.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: New eGFR equations from Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) using creatinine (eGFRcr), cystatin C (eGFRcys), and both (eGFRcr-cys) have sufficient accuracy for use in clinical practice, leading to uncertainty in selecting equations for implementation. The authors evaluated performance of equations in an independent population of 4050 adults and evaluated other considerations important for implementation. They found that CKD-EPI and EKFC equations are approaching convergence, with better performance of eGFRcr-cys equations in the overall group and fewer differences among race, sex, and age subgroups than eGFRcr equations. Larger differences among eGFRcr equations reflect regional population differences in creatinine, forcing a trade-off between accuracy and uniformity in global implementation of eGFRcr equations. More widespread use of cystatin C could avoid this trade-off. BACKGROUND: New CKD-EPI and EKFC eGFR equations using eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and both (eGFRcr-cys) have sufficient accuracy for use in clinical practice. A better understanding of the equations, including their performance in race, sex and age subgroups, is important for selection of eGFR equations for global implementation. METHODS: We evaluated performance (bias and P 30 ) of equations and methods used for equation development in an independent study population comprising 4050 adults pooled from 12 studies. The mean (SD) measured GFR was 76.4 (29.6) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and age 57.0 (17.4) years, with 1557 (38%) women and 579 (14%) Black participants. RESULTS: Coefficients for creatinine, cystatin C, age, and sex in the CKD-EPI and EKFC equations are similar. Performance of the eGFRcr-cys equations in the overall population (bias <±5 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and P 30 >90%) was better than the eGFRcr or eGFRcys equations, with fewer differences among race, sex, and age subgroups. Differences in performance across subgroups reflected differences in diversity of source populations and use of variables for race and sex for equation development. Larger differences among eGFRcr equations reflected regional population differences in non-GFR determinants of creatinine. CONCLUSION: CKD-EPI and EKFC equations are approaching convergence. It is not possible to maximize both accuracy and uniformity in selecting one of the currently available eGFRcr equations for implementation across regions. Decisions should consider methods for equation development in addition to performance. Wider use of cystatin C with creatinine could maximize both accuracy and uniformity of GFR estimation using currently available equations.

Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure: Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression. BACKGROUND: Changes in log urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown. METHODS: Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination. RESULTS: Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were -0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.64 to -0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and -0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100-200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.