Predicting nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer recurrence and progression in patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin: the CUETO scoring model.

PURPOSE: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin is the most effective therapy for nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. Recently to calculate the risks of recurrence and progression based on data from 7 European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials a scoring system was reported. However, in that series only 171 patients were treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin. We developed a risk stratification model to provide accurate estimates of recurrence and progression probability after bacillus Calmette-Guerin. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were analyzed on 1,062 patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin and included in 4 Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment trials. Stepwise multivariate Cox models were used to determine the effect of prognostic factors. In each patient the weight of all factors was summed to a total score. Patients were then divided into groups, and cumulative recurrence and progression rates were calculated. RESULTS: A scoring system was calculated with a score of 0 to 16 for recurrence and 0 to 14 for progression. Patients were categorized into 4 groups by score, and recurrence and progression probabilities were calculated in each group. For recurrence the variables were gender, age, grade, tumor status, multiplicity and associated Tis. For progression the variables were age, grade, tumor status, T category, multiplicity and associated Tis. For recurrence calculated risks using Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment tables were lower than those obtained with Sylvester tables. For progression probabilities were lower in our model only in patients with high risk tumors. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a scoring model to stratify the risk of recurrence and progression in patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin.

Differences in time to disease progression do not predict for cancer-specific survival in patients receiving immediate or deferred androgen-deprivation therapy for prostate cancer: final results of EORTC randomized trial 30891 with 12 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Trials assessing the benefit of immediate androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) for treating prostate cancer (PCa) have often done so based on differences in detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse or metastatic disease rates at a specific time after randomization. OBJECTIVE: Based on the long-term results of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial 30891, we questioned if differences in time to progression predict for survival differences. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: EORTC trial 30891 compared immediate ADT (n=492) with orchiectomy or luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analog with deferred ADT (n=493) initiated upon symptomatic disease progression or life-threatening complications in randomly assigned T0-4 N0-2 M0 PCa patients. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Time to first objective progression (documented metastases, ureteric obstruction, not PSA rise) and time to objective castration-resistant progressive disease were compared as well as PCa mortality and overall survival. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: After a median of 12.8 yr, 769 of the 985 patients had died (78%), 269 of PCa (27%). For patients receiving deferred ADT, the overall treatment time was 31% of that for patients on immediate ADT. Deferred ADT was significantly worse than immediate ADT for time to first objective disease progression (p<0.0001; 10-yr progression rates 42% vs 30%). However, time to objective castration-resistant disease after deferred ADT did not differ significantly (p=0.42) from that after immediate ADT. In addition, PCa mortality did not differ significantly, except in patients with aggressive PCa resulting in death within 3-5 yr after diagnosis. Deferred ADT was inferior to immediate ADT in terms of overall survival (hazard ratio: 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.39; p [noninferiority]=0.72, p [difference] = 0.0085). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that if hormonal manipulation is used at different times during the disease course, differences in time to first disease progression cannot predict differences in disease-specific survival. A deferred ADT policy may substantially reduce the time on treatment, but it is not suitable for patients with rapidly progressing disease.

The EORTC tables overestimate the risk of recurrence and progression in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin: external validation of the EORTC risk tables.

BACKGROUND: European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk tables only included 171 patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the external validity of the EORTC tables in patients with NMIBC treated with BCG over 5-6 mo. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data on 1062 patients treated with BCG were analyzed. MEASUREMENTS: Discrimination was assessed using the concordance index (c-index) and the prognostic separation index (PSEP). For calibration, probabilities of recurrence and progression obtained with the EORTC risk tables in our series were compared with those reported by the EORTC. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With respect to the discriminative ability of the EORTC model, c-index was similar to those reported in the EORTC series for recurrence. However, c-indices for progression in our series were lower than c-indices reported by Sylvester et al. [1]. Although PSEP in our series was lower than in the EORTC series for recurrence at 1 yr, similar results were found at 5 yr. Regarding progression, PSEP in our series was lower than in the EORTC series. Whilst a successful stratification of recurrence and progression probability at 1 and 5 yr was achieved using the EORTC tables in our series, model calibration showed lower risks of recurrence than those reported by Sylvester et al. [1] in all groups. For progression, lower risks were found in higher-risk groups. There are some limitations in the present study. A different distribution of patients was found, with higher proportions of primary grade 3 T1 tumors and tumors in situ than in the EORTC series. An additional limitation is that prior recurrence of the EORTC table was not included in our parameters. Consequently, two separate analyses were performed for recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The EORTC model successfully stratified recurrence and progression risks in our cohort. However, the discriminative ability of the EORTC tables decreased in our patients for progression. Moreover, these tables overestimated risks of recurrence and progression after BCG therapy.

Using PSA to guide timing of androgen deprivation in patients with T0-4 N0-2 M0 prostate cancer not suitable for local curative treatment (EORTC 30891).

OBJECTIVE: EORTC trial 30891 compared immediate versus deferred androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in T0-4 N0-2 M0 prostate cancer (PCa). Many patients randomly assigned to deferred ADT did not require ADT because they died before becoming symptomatic. The question arises whether serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels may be used to decide when to initiate ADT in PCa not suitable for local curative treatment. METHODS: PSA data at baseline, PSA doubling time (PSADT) in patients receiving no ADT, and time to PSA relapse (>2 ng/ml) in patients whose PSA declined to <2 ng/ml within the first year after immediate ADT were analyzed in 939 eligible patients randomly assigned to immediate (n=468) or deferred ADT (n=471). RESULTS: In both arms, patients with a baseline PSA>50 ng/ml were at a>3.5-fold higher risk to die of PCa than patients with a baseline PSA12 mo. Time to PSA relapse after response to immediate ADT correlated significantly with baseline PSA, suggesting that baseline PSA may also reflect disease aggressiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a baseline PSA>50 ng/ml and/or a PSADT<12 mo were at increased risk to die from PCa and might have benefited from immediate ADT, whereas patients with a baseline PSA<50 ng/ml and a slow PSADT (>12 mo) were likely to die of causes unrelated to PCa, and thus could be spared the burden of immediate ADT.

Prognostic factors in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin: multivariate analysis of data from four randomized CUETO trials.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic factors of recurrence and progression after intravesical adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder tumors. METHODS: From February 1990 to May 1999, the Spanish Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) group has performed four randomized phase 3 studies comparing different intravesical treatments in patients with noninvasive bladder cancer. Data from 1062 evaluable patients treated only with BCG were analyzed. Most patients received BCG once weekly for 6 consecutive weeks and a short-term BCG maintenance (once every 2 wk 6 times more). Associated tumor in situ (TIS) was found in 7.5% (n=80) of cases. There were 22.1% (n=235) patients with T1G3 tumors, 22.9% of whom (n=54) were associated with TIS. Stepwise multivariate Cox regression models with stratification by study and dose were used to assess the independent effect of predictive factors and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from the Cox model. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis demonstrated that female gender (HR=1.71) compared to male gender, recurrent tumors (HR=1.9) compared to primary tumors, multiplicity, and presence of associated TIS (HR=1.54) increased the risk of recurrence. Recurrent tumors (HR=1.62) compared to primary tumors, high-grade tumors (HR=5.64) compared to G1 tumors, T1 tumors (HR=2.15) compared to Ta tumors, and recurrence at 3-mo cystoscopy (HR=4.6) increased the risk of progression. CONCLUSION: Significant independent predictors for recurrence were female gender, history of recurrence, multiplicity, and presence of associated TIS. Age, history of recurrence, high grade, T1 stage, and recurrence at first cystoscopy were independent predictors of progression by multivariate Cox analysis.

A multicentre, randomised prospective trial comparing three intravesical adjuvant therapies for intermediate-risk superficial bladder cancer: low-dose bacillus Calmette-Guerin (27 mg) versus very low-dose bacillus Calmette-Guerin (13.5 mg) versus mitomycin C.

OBJECTIVE: The primary aim was to search for lower doses of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) that are effective and have lower toxicity. METHODS: A low dose of BCG 27 mg was compared with BCG 13.5mg, using mitomycin C (MMC) 30 mg as the third arm of comparison. A total of 430 patients with intermediate-risk superficial bladder cancer were randomised into three groups. Instillations were repeated once a week for 6 wk followed by another six instillations given once every 2 wk during 12 wk. RESULTS: There was a significantly longer disease-free interval for BCG 27 mg versus MMC 30 mg (p=0.006). There were no statistically significant differences between BCG 27 mg and BCG 13.5mg (p=0.165) or between BCG 13.5mg and MMC 30 mg (p=0.183). Cox proportional hazards regression showed that disease-free interval in the multivariate analysis was significantly better for primary disease and treatment with BCG 27 mg. There were no significant differences among the three groups with regards to time to progression and cancer-specific survival time. Local and systemic toxicity were higher in both BCG treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: One third of the standard dose, BCG 27 mg, seems to be the minimum effective dose as adjuvant treatment for intermediate-risk superficial bladder cancer, being more effective than MMC 30 mg. One sixth of the standard dose, BCG 13.5mg, has the same efficacy as MMC 30 mg but it is more toxic.

Immediate or deferred androgen deprivation for patients with prostate cancer not suitable for local treatment with curative intent: European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Trial 30891.

PURPOSE: This study (EORTC 30891) attempted to demonstrate equivalent overall survival in patients with localized prostate cancer not suitable for local curative treatment treated with immediate or deferred androgen ablation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We randomly assigned 985 patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer T0-4 N0-2 M0 to receive androgen deprivation either immediately (n = 493) or on symptomatic disease progression or occurrence of serious complications (n = 492). RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were well balanced in the two groups. Median age was 73 years (range, 52 to 81). At a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 541 of 985 patients had died, mostly of prostate cancer (n = 193) or cardiovascular disease (n = 185). The overall survival hazard ratio was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.05 to 1.48; noninferiority P > .1) favoring immediate treatment, seemingly due to fewer deaths of nonprostatic cancer causes (P = .06). The time from randomization to progression of hormone refractory disease did not differ significantly, nor did prostate-cancer specific survival. The median time to the start of deferred treatment after study entry was 7 years. In this group 126 patients (25.6%) died without ever needing treatment (44% of the deaths in this arm). CONCLUSION: Immediate androgen deprivation resulted in a modest but statistically significant increase in overall survival but no significant difference in prostate cancer mortality or symptom-free survival. This must be weighed on an individual basis against the adverse effects of life-long androgen deprivation, which may be avoided in a substantial number of patients with a deferred treatment policy.

Has a 3-fold decreased dose of bacillus Calmette-Guerin the same efficacy against recurrences and progression of T1G3 and Tis bladder tumors than the standard dose? Results of a prospective randomized trial.

PURPOSE: We determined if a third of the dose of intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) has the same efficacy than a standard dose for decreasing the risk of recurrence and progression after transurethral resection in patients with superficial high risk (stages T1G3 and carcinoma in situ) bladder cancer. Also, we evaluated toxic side effects. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 155 patients with a mean age +/- SD of 67 +/- 10.1 years with superficial bladder cancer, including stages T1G3 in 90, a Tis primary tumor in 23 and associated Tis disease in 42, were enrolled and randomly assigned to be treated after transurethral resection of all visible lesions with intravesical BCG, Connaught strain (weekly x 6 and fortnightly x 6 thereafter) with the standard dose of 81 mg or with the decreased dose of 27 mg. RESULTS: Median followup was 61 months (range 3 to 102). Disease recurred in 32 patients (39%) treated with the standard dose and in 33 (45%) treated with the decreased dose. Median time to recurrence was not attained in the standard dose arm and it was 63 months in the decreased dose arm. Kaplan-Meier estimates for time to recurrence did not reveal differences between the 2 doses (p = 0.405). Tumor progressed in 20 patients (24.7%) with the standard dose and in 19 (26%) with the decreased dose. Four patients (6.1%) with Tis had local extension into the prostatic urethra and ducts, including 3 (8.3%) treated with the standard dose and 1 (3.4%) treated with the decreased dose. Median time to progression was not attained in either arm. Kaplan-Meier estimates for time to progression did not differ significantly (p = 0.7997). Deferred cystectomy for progression was performed in 7 patients (8.4%) treated with the standard dose and in 7 (9.5%) of those treated with the decreased dose. Subgroup analysis by patient age, tumor status, number, size and T stage (T1G3 vs Tis) did not differ significantly. The groups did not differ in disease specific mortality, which was 12.2% in the standard dose arm and 16.4% in the decreased dose arm. Mean disease specific survival +/- SE was 86.96 +/- 4.14 and 83.73 +/- 4.73 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that a 3-fold decreased dose of intravesical BCG is as effective as the standard dose against progression in patients with high risk stages T1G3 and Tis superficial bladder carcinoma but with significantly less toxicity.