Remission and low disease activity are associated with lower healthcare costs: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine the independent impact of definitions of remission/low disease activity (LDA) on direct/indirect costs (DCs, ICs) in a multicentre inception cohort. METHODS: Patients from 31 centres in 10 countries were enrolled within 15 months of diagnosis and assessed annually. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states (DAS) were defined as (1) remission off-treatment: clinical (c) SLEDAI-2K=0, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (2) remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; (3) LDA-Toronto Cohort (TC): cSLEDAI-2K≤2, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (4) modified lupus LDA state (mLLDAS): SLEDAI-2K≤4, no activity in major organs/systems, no new activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants and (5) active: all remaining assessments.At each assessment, patients were stratified into the most stringent DAS fulfilled and the proportion of time in a DAS since cohort entry was determined. Annual DCs/ICs (2021 Canadian dollars) were based on healthcare use and lost workforce/non-workforce productivity over the preceding year.The association between the proportion of time in a DAS and annual DC/IC was examined through multivariable random-effects linear regressions. RESULTS: 1692 patients were followed a mean of 9.7 years; 49.0% of assessments were active. Remission/LDA (per 25% increase in time in a remission/LDA state vs active) were associated with lower annual DC/IC: remission off-treatment (DC -$C1372; IC -$C2507), remission on-treatment (DC -$C973; IC -$C2604,) LDA-TC (DC -$C1158) and mLLDAS (DC -$C1040). There were no cost differences between remission/LDA states. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that systemic lupus erythematosus patients who achieve remission, both off and on-therapy, and reductions in disease activity incur lower costs than those experiencing persistent disease activity.

A survey of ficolin-3 activity in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus reveals a link to hematological disease manifestations and autoantibody profile.

The complement system plays a central role in the pathogenesis of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), but most studies have focused on the classical pathway. Ficolin-3 is the main initiator of the lectin pathway of complement in humans, but its role in systemic autoimmune disease has not been conclusively determined. Here, we combined biochemical and genetic approaches to assess the contribution of ficolin-3 to SLE risk and disease manifestations. Ficolin-3 activity was measured by a functional assay in serum or plasma samples from Swedish SLE patients (n = 786) and controls matched for age and sex (n = 566). Genetic variants in an extended 300 kb genomic region spanning the FCN3 locus were analyzed for their association with ficolin-3 activity and SLE manifestations in a Swedish multicenter cohort (n = 985). Patients with ficolin-3 activity in the highest tertile showed a strong enrichment in an SLE cluster defined by anti-Sm/DNA/nucleosome antibodies (OR 3.0, p < 0.001) and had increased rates of hematological disease (OR 1.4, p = 0.078) and lymphopenia (OR = 1.6, p = 0.039). Genetic variants associated with low ficolin-3 activity mapped to an extended haplotype in high linkage disequilibrium upstream of the FCN3 gene. Patients carrying the lead genetic variant associated with low ficolin-3 activity had a lower frequency of hematological disease (OR 0.67, p = 0.018) and lymphopenia (OR 0.63, p = 0.031) and fewer autoantibodies (p = 0.0019). Loss-of-function variants in the FCN3 gene were not associated with SLE, but four (0.5 %) SLE patients developed acquired ficolin-3 deficiency where ficolin-3 activity in serum was depleted following diagnosis of SLE. Taken together, our results provide genetic and biochemical evidence that implicate the lectin pathway in hematological SLE manifestations. We also identify lectin pathway activation through ficolin-3 as a factor that contributes to the autoantibody response in SLE.

Glucocorticoid treatment in SLE is associated with infections, comorbidities and mortality-a national cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with SLE have an increased risk of comorbidities and impaired survival. We aimed to assess whether various thresholds of oral CS (OCS) can predict development of infections, comorbidities, malignancies and survival in SLE using data from national health registries in Sweden. METHODS: All incident SLE cases, age >18 years, in Sweden (n = 5309) between 2005 and 2020 and matched population controls (n = 26 545) were included and followed until 2020, a total of 257 942 patient years. Data from national registers were retrieved including information from the National Prescribed Drug Register. Risk factors were analysed using time-dependent Cox regression models. RESULTS: Compared with no OCS, >0 to <5.0 mg/day, 5.0-7.5 mg/day as well as >7.5 mg/day OCS predicted development of infections (pneumonia, influenza, herpes zoster and urinary tract infection), osteoporosis, osteonecrosis, gastroduodenal ulcers, cataracts, hypertension and mortality (all P < 0.05). OCS >0 to <5.0 mg/day was associated with lower hazard ratios for these comorbidities than higher doses of OCS. Fifteen years after diagnosis, 48% of patients were taking OCS at a median dose of 5.7 mg/day. A small reduction of OCS treatment 5 years after diagnosis in patients diagnosed with SLE 2006-10 compared with 2011-15 was observed, 49% vs 46% respectively (P = 0.039). CONCLUSION: Results highlight the potential harm associated with even low OCS dose treatment in SLE and the need to judiciously use OCS at the lowest possible dose to maximize efficacy and minimize harm.

Plasma interferon-alpha protein levels during pregnancy are associated with lower birth weight in systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVES: Adverse pregnancy outcomes are more common in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) compared with healthy women, but we lack prognostic biomarkers. Plasma interferon alpha (IFNα) protein levels are elevated in a subgroup of pregnant women with SLE, but whether this is associated with pregnancy outcomes is unknown. We investigated the relationship between IFNα, adverse pregnancy outcomes and the presence of autoantibodies in SLE pregnancy. METHODS: We followed 76 women with SLE prospectively. Protein levels of IFNα were quantified in plasma collected in the 2nd and 3rd trimester with single-molecule array. Positivity for antinuclear and antiphospholipid antibodies was assessed during late pregnancy with multiplexed bead assay. Clinical outcomes included the adverse pregnancy outcomes small for gestational age (SGA), preterm birth, and preeclampsia. RESULTS: During SLE pregnancy, women with SGA infants compared with those without had higher levels of plasma IFNα protein, and IFNα positivity was associated with lower birth weight of the infant. Preterm birth was associated with autoantibodies against chromatin. IFNα protein levels associated positively with autoantibodies against chromatin, Smith/ribonucleoprotein (SmRNP) and RNP, but negatively with phospholipid antibodies. CONCLUSION: Elevated IFNα protein in plasma of women with SLE is a potential risk factor for lower birth weight of their infants. The association between IFNα and lower birth weight warrants further investigation regarding the pathophysiological role of IFNα during SLE pregnancy.

Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset. RESULTS: Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2. CONCLUSION: Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk.

Role of Mannose-binding Lectin and Association with Microbial Sensitization in a Cohort of Patients with Atopic Dermatitis.

Atopic dermatitis is a relapsing inflammatory skin condition, in which bacteria, fungi and viruses may colonize the skin and aggravate the condition. Mannose-binding lectin is part of the innate immune system. Polymorphism in the mannose-binding lectin gene can result in deficiency of mannose-binding lectin, which may affect defence against microbes. The aim of this study was to investigate whether polymorphisms in the mannose-binding lectin gene affect the extent of sensitization to common skin microbes, the skin barrier function, or the severity of the disease in a cohort of patients with atopic dermatitis. Genetic testing of mannose-binding lectin polymorphism was performed in 60 patients with atopic dermatitis. The disease severity, skin barrier function, and serum levels of specific immunoglobulin E against skin microbes were measured. In patients with low mannose-binding lectin genotype (group 1) 6 of 8 (75%) were sensitized to Candida albicans, compared to 14 of 22 (63.6%) patients with intermediate mannose-binding genotype  (group 2) and 10 of 30 (33.3%) patients with high mannose-binding genotype (group 3). Group 1 (low mannose-binding lectin) was more likely to be sensitized to Candida albicans compared with group 3 (high mannose-binding lectin) (odds ratio 6.34, p-value 0.045). In this cohort of patients with atopic dermatitis, mannose-binding lectin deficiency was associated with increased sensitization to Candida albicans.

Remission and low disease activity (LDA) prevent damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the independent impact of different definitions of remission and low disease activity (LDA) on damage accrual. METHODS: Patients with ≥2 annual assessments from a longitudinal multinational inception lupus cohort were studied. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states were defined: remission off-treatment: clinical Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (cSLEDAI)-2K=0, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K score=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; low disease activity Toronto cohort (LDA-TC): cSLEDAI-2K score of ≤2, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; modified lupus low disease activity (mLLDAS): Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index-2K score of 4 with no activity in major organ/systems, no new disease activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; active: all remaining visits. Only the most stringent definition was used per visit. Antimalarials were allowed in all. The proportion of time that patients were in a specific state at each visit since cohort entry was determined. Damage accrual was ascertained with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). Univariable and multivariable generalised estimated equation negative binomial regression models were used. Time-dependent covariates were determined at the same annual visit as the disease activity state but the SDI at the subsequent visit. RESULTS: There were 1652 patients, 1464 (88.6%) female, mean age at diagnosis 34.2 (SD 13.4) years and mean follow-up time of 7.7 (SD 4.8) years. Being in remission off-treatment, remission on-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS (per 25% increase) were each associated with a lower probability of damage accrual (remission off-treatment: incidence rate ratio (IRR)=0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.81; remission on-treatment: IRR=0.68, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.75; LDA: IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.92; and mLLDAS: IRR=0.76, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.89)). CONCLUSIONS: Remission on-treatment and off-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS were associated with less damage accrual, even adjusting for possible confounders and effect modifiers.

Flares after hydroxychloroquine reduction or discontinuation: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. METHODS: We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare. RESULTS: We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts. CONCLUSIONS: SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful.

Characteristics associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus: data from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance.

AIM: To determine characteristics associated with more severe outcomes in a global registry of people with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and COVID-19. METHODS: People with SLE and COVID-19 reported in the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry from March 2020 to June 2021 were included. The ordinal outcome was defined as: (1) not hospitalised, (2) hospitalised with no oxygenation, (3) hospitalised with any ventilation or oxygenation and (4) death. A multivariable ordinal logistic regression model was constructed to assess the relationship between COVID-19 severity and demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medications and disease activity. RESULTS: A total of 1606 people with SLE were included. In the multivariable model, older age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), male sex (1.50, 1.01 to 2.23), prednisone dose (1-5 mg/day 1.86, 1.20 to 2.66, 6-9 mg/day 2.47, 1.24 to 4.86 and ≥10 mg/day 1.95, 1.27 to 2.99), no current treatment (1.80, 1.17 to 2.75), comorbidities (eg, kidney disease 3.51, 2.42 to 5.09, cardiovascular disease/hypertension 1.69, 1.25 to 2.29) and moderate or high SLE disease activity (vs remission; 1.61, 1.02 to 2.54 and 3.94, 2.11 to 7.34, respectively) were associated with more severe outcomes. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted models, mycophenolate, rituximab and cyclophosphamide were associated with worse outcomes compared with hydroxychloroquine; outcomes were more favourable with methotrexate and belimumab. CONCLUSIONS: More severe COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with SLE are largely driven by demographic factors, comorbidities and untreated or active SLE. Patients using glucocorticoids also experienced more severe outcomes.

Longitudinal analysis of ANA in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: A perception derived from cross-sectional studies of small systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohorts is that there is a marked discrepancy between antinuclear antibody (ANA) assays, which impacts on clinicians' approach to diagnosis and follow-up. We compared three ANA assays in a longitudinal analysis of a large international incident SLE cohort retested regularly and followed for 5 years. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and serological data was from 805 SLE patients at enrolment, year 3 and 5. Two HEp-2 indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA1, IFA2), an ANA ELISA, and SLE-related autoantibodies were performed in one laboratory. Frequencies of positivity, titres or absorbance units (AU), and IFA patterns were compared using McNemar, Wilcoxon and kappa statistics, respectively. RESULTS: At enrolment, ANA positivity (≥1:80) was 96.1% by IFA1 (median titre 1:1280 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)), 98.3% by IFA2 (1:2560 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)) and 96.6% by ELISA (176.3 AU (IQR 106.4 AU-203.5 AU)). At least one ANA assay was positive for 99.6% of patients at enrolment. At year 5, ANA positivity by IFAs (IFA1 95.2%; IFA2 98.9%) remained high, while there was a decrease in ELISA positivity (91.3%, p<0.001). Overall, there was >91% agreement in ANA positivity at all time points and ≥71% agreement in IFA patterns between IFA1 and IFA2. CONCLUSION: In recent-onset SLE, three ANA assays demonstrated commutability with a high proportion of positivity and titres or AU. However, over 5 years follow-up, there was modest variation in ANA assay performance. In clinical situations where the SLE diagnosis is being considered, a negative test by either the ELISA or HEp-2 IFA may require reflex testing.

Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light concentrations reflect neuronal damage in systemic lupus Erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Neuronal damage in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is common, but the extent and mechanisms are unclear. Neurofilament light (NfL) concentrations rise in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) during neuronal damage in various neurological disorders. In this cross-sectional study, plasma and CSF concentrations of NfL were explored as a marker of neuronal damage in SLE. METHODS: Seventy-two consecutive SLE out-patients and 26 healthy controls, all female, aged < 55 years, underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neurocognitive testing. NfL concentrations in plasma from all individuals and in CSF from 32 patients were measured with single-molecule array technology. Patients were assessed by a rheumatologist and neurologist to define neuropsychiatric involvement (NPSLE) according to three attribution models: SLICC A, SLICC B and ACR. RESULTS: Plasma and CSF NfL concentrations correlated strongly (r = 0.72, p < 0.001). Both NPSLE and non-NPSLE patients in all attribution models had higher plasma NfL concentrations compared with healthy controls (log-NfL, pg/ml, mean (SD); healthy controls (0.71 (0.17)); SLICC A model: NPSLE (0.87 (0.13), p = 0.003), non-NPSLE (0.83 (0.18), p = 0.005); SLICC B model: NPSLE (0.87 (0.14), p = 0.001), non-NPSLE (0.83 (0.18), p = 0.008); ACR model: NPSLE (0.86 (0.16), p < 0.001), non-NPSLE (0.81 (0.17), p = 0.044)). Plasma and CSF NfL concentrations did not differ between NPSLE and non-NPSLE patients. Higher plasma NfL concentrations correlated with larger CSF volumes on MRI (r = 0.34, p = 0.005), and was associated with poorer cognitive performance in the domains of simple attention, psychomotor speed and verbal memory. SLICC/ACR-Damage Index ≥1 was independently associated with higher plasma NfL concentrations (ß = 0.074, p = 0.038). Higher plasma creatinine concentrations, anti-dsDNA-positivity, low complement C3 levels, or a history of renal involvement were associated with higher plasma NfL concentrations (ß = 0.003, p = 0.009; ß = 0.072, p = 0.031; ß = 0.077, p = 0.027; ß = 0.069, p = 0.047, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma NfL concentrations in NPSLE and non-NPSLE patients may indicate a higher degree of neuronal damage in SLE in general, corresponding to cognitive impairment and organ damage development. Furthermore, our results may indicate a higher degree of neuronal breakdown in patients with active SLE, also without overt clinical symptoms. NfL may serve as an indicator of neuronal damage in SLE in further studies.

Variants in BANK1 are associated with lupus nephritis of European ancestry.

The genetic background of lupus nephritis (LN) has not been completely elucidated. We performed a case-only study of 2886 SLE patients, including 947 (33%) with LN. Renal biopsies were available from 396 patients. The discovery cohort (Sweden, n = 1091) and replication cohort 1 (US, n = 962) were genotyped on the Immunochip and replication cohort 2 (Denmark/Norway, n = 833) on a custom array. Patients with LN, proliferative nephritis, or LN with end-stage renal disease were compared with SLE without nephritis. Six loci were associated with LN (p < 1 × 10-4, NFKBIA, CACNA1S, ITGA1, BANK1, OR2Y, and ACER3) in the discovery cohort. Variants in BANK1 showed the strongest association with LN in replication cohort 1 (p = 9.5 × 10-4) and proliferative nephritis in a meta-analysis of discovery and replication cohort 1. There was a weak association between BANK1 and LN in replication cohort 2 (p = 0.052), and in the meta-analysis of all three cohorts the association was strengthened (p = 2.2 × 10-7). DNA methylation data in 180 LN patients demonstrated methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL) effects between a CpG site and BANK1 variants. To conclude, we describe genetic variations in BANK1 associated with LN and evidence for genetic regulation of DNA methylation within the BANK1 locus. This indicates a role for BANK1 in LN pathogenesis.

Interaction between the STAT4 rs11889341(T) risk allele and smoking confers increased risk of myocardial infarction and nephritis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how genetics influence the risk of smoking-related systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) manifestations. METHODS: Patients with SLE (ndiscovery cohort=776, nreplication cohort=836) were genotyped using the 200K Immunochip single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) Array (Illumina) and a custom array. Sixty SNPs with SLE association (p<5.0×10-8) were analysed. Signal transducer and activator of transcription 4 (STAT4) activation was assessed in in vitro stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells from healthy controls (n=45). RESULTS: In the discovery cohort, smoking was associated with myocardial infarction (MI) (OR 1.96 (95% CI 1.09 to 3.55)), with a greater effect in patients carrying any rs11889341 STAT4 risk allele (OR 2.72 (95% CI 1.24 to 6.00)) or two risk alleles (OR 8.27 (95% CI 1.48 to 46.27)).Smokers carrying the risk allele also displayed an increased risk of nephritis (OR 1.47 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.03)). In the replication cohort, the high risk of MI in smokers carrying the risk allele and the association between the STAT4 risk allele and nephritis in smokers were confirmed (OR 6.19 (95% CI 1.29 to 29.79) and 1.84 (95% CI 1.05 to 3.29), respectively).The interaction between smoking and the STAT4 risk allele resulted in further increase in the risk of MI (OR 2.14 (95% CI 1.01 to 4.62)) and nephritis (OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.17)), with 54% (MI) and 34% (nephritis) of the risk attributable to the interaction. Levels of interleukin-12-induced phosphorylation of STAT4 in CD8+ T cells were higher in smokers than in non-smokers (mean geometric fluorescence intensity 1063 vs 565, p=0.0063).Lastly, the IL12A rs564799 risk allele displayed association with MI in both cohorts (OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.01 to 2.31) and 2.15 (95% CI 1.08 to 4.26), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking in the presence of the STAT4 risk gene variant appears to increase the risk of MI and nephritis in SLE. Our results also highlight the role of the IL12-STAT4 pathway in SLE-cardiovascular morbidity.

Molecular pathways in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus revealed by gene-centred DNA sequencing.

OBJECTIVES: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with extensive heterogeneity in disease presentation between patients, which is likely due to an underlying molecular diversity. Here, we aimed at elucidating the genetic aetiology of SLE from the immunity pathway level to the single variant level, and stratify patients with SLE into distinguishable molecular subgroups, which could inform treatment choices in SLE. METHODS: We undertook a pathway-centred approach, using sequencing of immunological pathway genes. Altogether 1832 candidate genes were analysed in 958 Swedish patients with SLE and 1026 healthy individuals. Aggregate and single variant association testing was performed, and we generated pathway polygenic risk scores (PRS). RESULTS: We identified two main independent pathways involved in SLE susceptibility: T lymphocyte differentiation and innate immunity, characterised by HLA and interferon, respectively. Pathway PRS defined pathways in individual patients, who on average were positive for seven pathways. We found that SLE organ damage was more pronounced in patients positive for the T or B cell receptor signalling pathways. Further, pathway PRS-based clustering allowed stratification of patients into four groups with different risk score profiles. Studying sets of genes with priors for involvement in SLE, we observed an aggregate common variant contribution to SLE at genes previously reported for monogenic SLE as well as at interferonopathy genes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that pathway risk scores have the potential to stratify patients with SLE beyond clinical manifestations into molecular subsets, which may have implications for clinical follow-up and therapy selection.

De novo lupus nephritis during treatment with belimumab.

OBJECTIVE: In light of reports of de novo LN during belimumab (BLM) treatment, we sought to determine its frequency and contributing or protective factors in a real-life setting. METHODS: Patients with SLE who received BLM between 2011 and 2017 at five European academic practices were enrolled (n = 95) and followed longitudinally for a median time of 13.1 months [interquartile range (IQR): 6.0-34.7]; 52.6% were anti-dsDNA positive, 60.0% had low complement levels, and 69.5% had no renal involvement prior to/at BLM initiation [mean disease duration at baseline: 11.4 (9.3) years]. Age- and sex-matched patients with non-renal SLE who had similar serological profiles, but were not exposed to BLM, served as controls (median follow-up: 132.0 months; IQR: 98.3-151.2). RESULTS: We observed 6/66 cases (9.1%) of biopsy-proven de novo LN (4/6 proliferative) among the non-renal BLM-treated SLE cases after a follow-up of 7.4 months (IQR: 2.7-22.2). Among controls, 2/66 cases (3.0%) of de novo LN (both proliferative) were observed after 21 and 50 months. BLM treatment was associated with an increased frequency and/or shorter time to de novo LN [hazard ratio (HR): 10.7; 95% CI: 1.7, 67.9; P = 0.012], while concomitant use of antimalarial agents along with BLM showed an opposing association (HR: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.97; P = 0.046). CONCLUSION: Addition of BLM to standard-of-care did not prevent LN in patients with active non-renal SLE, but a favourable effect of concomitant use of antimalarials was implicated. Studies of whether effects of B-cell activating factor inhibition on lymphocyte subsets contribute to LN susceptibility are warranted.

Lower vitamin D is associated with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in systemic lupus: data from an international inception cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency and metabolic syndrome (MetS) may both contribute to increased cardiovascular risk in SLE. We aimed to examine the association of demographic factors, SLE phenotype, therapy and vitamin D levels with MetS and insulin resistance. METHODS: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) enrolled patients recently diagnosed with SLE (<15 months) from 33 centres across 11 countries from 2000. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data were collected. Vitamin D level was defined according to tertiles based on distribution across this cohort, which were set at T1 (10-36 nmol/l), T2 (37-60 nmol/l) and T3 (61-174 nmol/l). MetS was defined according to the 2009 consensus statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin resistance was determined using the HOMA-IR model. Linear and logistic regressions were used to assess the association of variables with vitamin D levels. RESULTS: Of the 1847 patients, 1163 (63%) had vitamin D measured and 398 (34.2%) subjects were in the lowest 25(OH)D tertile. MetS was present in 286 of 860 (33%) patients whose status could be determined. Patients with lower 25(OH)D were more likely to have MetS and higher HOMA-IR. The MetS components, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia and decreased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were all significantly associated with lower 25(OH)D. Increased average glucocorticoid exposure was associated with higher insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: MetS and insulin resistance are associated with lower vitamin D in patients with SLE. Further studies could determine whether vitamin D repletion confers better control of these cardiovascular risk factors and improve long-term outcomes in SLE.

NCF1-339 polymorphism is associated with altered formation of neutrophil extracellular traps, high serum interferon activity and antiphospholipid syndrome in systemic lupus erythematosus.

​OBJECTIVES: A single nucleotide polymorphism in the NCF1 gene (NCF1-339, rs201802880), encoding NADPH oxidase type II subunit NCF1/p47phox, reducing production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) is strongly associated with the development of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed at characterising NCF1-339 effects on neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation, type I interferon activity and antibody profile in patients with SLE. ​METHODS: Neutrophil NET-release pathways (n=31), serum interferon (n=141) and finally antibody profiles (n=305) were investigated in SLE subjects from Lund, genotyped for NCF1-339. Then, 1087 SLE subjects from the rheumatology departments of four Swedish SLE centres, genotyped for NCF1-339, were clinically characterised to validate these findings. ​RESULTS: Compared with patients with normal-ROS NCF1-339 genotypes, neutrophils from patients with SLE with low-ROS NCF1-339 genotypes displayed impaired NET formation (p<0.01) and increased dependence on mitochondrial ROS (p<0.05). Low-ROS patients also had increased frequency of high serum interferon activity (80% vs 21.4%, p<0.05) and positivity for anti-ß2 glycoprotein I (p<0.01) and anticardiolipin antibodies (p<0.05) but were not associated with other antibodies. We confirmed an over-representation of having any antiphospholipid antibody, OR 1.40 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.95), anti-ß2 glycoprotein I, OR 1.82 (95% CI 1.02 to 3.24) and the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), OR 1.74 (95% CI 1.19 to 2.55) in all four cohorts (n=1087). ​CONCLUSIONS: The NCF1-339 SNP mediated decreased NADPH oxidase function, is associated with high interferon activity and impaired formation of NETs in SLE, allowing dependence on mitochondrial ROS. Unexpectedly, we revealed a striking connection between the ROS deficient NCF1-339 genotypes and the presence of phospholipid antibodies and APS.

High genetic risk score is associated with early disease onset, damage accrual and decreased survival in systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate associations between a high genetic disease risk and disease severity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Patients with SLE (n=1001, discovery cohort and n=5524, replication cohort) and healthy controls (n=2802 and n=9859) were genotyped using a 200K Immunochip single nucleotide polymorphism array. A genetic risk score (GRS) was assigned to each individual based on 57 SLE risk loci. RESULTS: SLE was more prevalent in the high, compared with the low, GRS-quartile (OR 12.32 (9.53 to 15.71), p=7.9×10-86 and OR 7.48 (6.73 to 8.32), p=2.2×10-304 for the discovery and the replication cohorts, respectively). In the discovery cohort, patients in the high GRS-quartile had a 6-year earlier mean disease onset (HR 1.47 (1.22 to 1.75), p=4.3×10-5), displayed higher prevalence of damage accrual (OR 1.47 (1.06 to 2.04), p=2.0×10-2), renal disorder (OR 2.22 (1.50 to 3.27), p=5.9×10-5), anti-dsDNA (OR 1.83 (1.19 to 2.81), p=6.1×10-3), end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (OR 5.58 (1.50 to 20.79), p=1.0×10-2), proliferative nephritis (OR 2.42 (1.30 to 4.49), p=5.1×10-3), anti-cardiolipin-IgG (OR 1.89 (1.13 to 3.18), p=1.6×10-2), anti-ß2-glycoprotein-I-IgG (OR 2.29 (1.29 to 4.06), p=4.8×10-3) and positive lupus anticoagulant test (OR 2.12 (1.16 to 3.89), p=1.5×10-2) compared with patients in the low GRS-quartile. Survival analysis showed earlier onset of the first organ damage (HR 1.51 (1.04 to 2.25), p=3.7×10-2), first cardiovascular event (HR 1.65 (1.03 to 2.64), p=2.6×10-2), nephritis (HR 2.53 (1.72 to 3.71), p=9.6×10-7), ESRD (HR 6.78 (1.78 to 26.86), p=6.5×10-3) and decreased overall survival (HR 1.83 (1.02 to 3.30), p=4.3×10-2) in high to low quartile comparison. CONCLUSIONS: A high GRS is associated with increased risk of organ damage, renal dysfunction and all-cause mortality. Our results indicate that genetic profiling may be useful for predicting outcomes in patients with SLE.

Neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus: a longitudinal analysis of outcomes in an international inception cohort using a multistate model approach.

OBJECTIVES: Using a reversible multistate model, we prospectively examined neuropsychiatric (NP) events for attribution, outcome and association with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), in an international, inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. METHODS: Annual assessments for 19 NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes, physician determination of outcome and patient HRQoL (short-form (SF)-36 scores) were measured. Time-to-event analysis and multistate modelling examined the onset, recurrence and transition between NP states. RESULTS: NP events occurred in 955/1827 (52.3%) patients and 592/1910 (31.0%) unique events were attributed to SLE. In the first 2 years of follow-up the relative risk (95% CI) for SLE NP events was 6.16 (4.96, 7.66) and non-SLE events was 4.66 (4.01, 5.43) compared with thereafter. Patients without SLE NP events at initial assessment had a 74% probability of being event free at 10 years. For non-SLE NP events the estimate was 48%. The majority of NP events resolved over 10 years but mortality was higher in patients with NP events attributed to SLE (16%) versus patients with no NPSLE events (6%) while the rate was comparable in patients with non-SLE NP events (7%) compared with patients with no non-SLE events (6%). Patients with NP events had lower SF-36 summary scores compared with those without NP events and resolved NP states (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: NP events occur most frequently around the diagnosis of SLE. Although the majority of events resolve they are associated with reduced HRQoL and excess mortality. Multistate modelling is well suited for the assessment of NP events in SLE.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) levels predict damage accrual in patients with recent-onset systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: The soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) has potential as a prognosis and severity biomarker in several inflammatory and infectious diseases. In a previous cross-sectional study, suPAR levels were shown to reflect damage accrual in cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Herein, we evaluated suPAR as a predictor of future organ damage in recent-onset SLE. METHODS: Included were 344 patients from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort who met the 1997 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria with 5-years of follow-up data available. Baseline sera from patients and age- and sex-matched controls were assayed for suPAR. Organ damage was assessed annually using the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI). RESULTS: The levels of suPAR were higher in patients who accrued damage, particularly those with SDI≥2 at 5 years (N = 32, 46.8% increase, p = 0.004), as compared to patients without damage. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant impact of suPAR on SDI outcome (SDI≥2; OR = 1.14; 95% CI 1.03-1.26), also after adjustment for confounding factors. In an optimized logistic regression to predict damage, suPAR persisted as a predictor, together with baseline disease activity (SLEDAI-2K), age, and non-Caucasian ethnicity (model AUC = 0.77). Dissecting SDI into organ systems revealed higher suPAR levels in patients who developed musculoskeletal damage (SDI≥1; p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Prognostic biomarkers identify patients who are at risk of acquiring early damage and therefore need careful observation and targeted treatment strategies. Overall, suPAR constitutes an interesting biomarker for patient stratification and for identifying SLE patients who are at risk of acquiring organ damage during the first 5 years of disease.