Reliability and Utility of the Surprise Question in CKD Stages 4 to 5.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic uncertainty is one barrier to engaging in goals-of-care discussions in chronic kidney disease (CKD). The surprise question ("Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?") is a tool to assist in prognostication. However, it has not been studied in non-dialysis-dependent CKD and its reliability is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 388 patients at least 60 years of age with non-dialysis-dependent CKD stages 4 to 5 who were seen at an outpatient nephrology clinic. PREDICTOR: Trinary (ie, Yes, Neutral, or No) and binary (Yes or No) surprise question response. OUTCOMES: Mortality, test-retest reliability, and blinded inter-rater reliability. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline comorbid conditions, Charlson Comorbidity Index, cause of CKD, and baseline laboratory values (ie, serum creatinine/estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum albumin, and hemoglobin). RESULTS: Median patient age was 71 years with median follow-up of 1.4 years, during which time 52 (13%) patients died. Using the trinary surprise question, providers responded Yes, Neutral, and No for 202 (52%), 80 (21%), and 106 (27%) patients, respectively. About 5%, 15%, and 27% of Yes, Neutral, and No patients died, respectively (P<0.001). Trinary surprise question inter-rater reliability was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.42-0.72), and test-retest reliability was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.54-0.72). The trinary surprise question No response had sensitivity and specificity of 55% and 76%, respectively (95% CIs, 38%-71% and 71%-80%, respectively). The binary surprise question had sensitivity of 66% (95% CI, 49%-80%; P=0.3 vs trinary), but lower specificity of 68% (95% CI, 63%-73%; P=0.02 vs trinary). LIMITATIONS: Single center, small number of deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The surprise question associates with mortality in CKD stages 4 to 5 and demonstrates moderate to good reliability. Future studies should examine how best to deploy the surprise question to facilitate advance care planning in advanced non-dialysis-dependent CKD.

Nephrology Provider Prognostic Perceptions and Care Delivered to Older Adults with Advanced Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prognostic uncertainty is one barrier that impedes providers in engaging patients with CKD in shared decision making and advance care planning. The surprise question has been shown to identify patients at increased risk of dying. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: In our prospective observational study, 488 patients ≥60 years of age with CKD stage 4 or 5 were enrolled. Binary surprise question (i.e., "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?") responses were recorded, and dialysis planning preferences, presence of advance care planning documentation, and care preceding death were abstracted. RESULTS: The median patient age was 71 (65-77) years old. Providers responded no and yes to the surprise question for 171 (35%) and 317 (65%) patients, respectively. Median follow-up was 1.9 (1.5-2.1) years, during which 18% of patients died (33% of surprise question no, 10% of surprise question yes; P<0.001). In patients with a known RRT preference (58%), 13% of surprise question no participants had a preference for conservative management (versus 2% of yes counterparts; P<0.001). A medical order (i.e., physician order for life-sustaining treatment) was documented in 13% of surprise question no patients versus 5% of yes patients (P=0.004). Among surprise question no decedents, 41% died at home or hospice, 38% used hospice services, and 54% were hospitalized in the month before death. In surprise question yes decedents, 39% died at home or hospice (P=0.90 versus no), 26% used hospice services (P=0.50 versus no), and 67% were hospitalized in the month before death (P=0.40 versus surprise question no). CONCLUSIONS: Nephrologists' prognostic perceptions were associated with modest changes in care, highlighting a critical gap in conservative management discussions, advance care planning, and end of life care among older adults with CKD stages 4 and 5 and high-risk clinical characteristics. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2017_09_18_CJASNPodcast_17_11.mp3.

Are thromboembolic and bleeding complications a drawback for composite aortic root replacement?

BACKGROUND: Valve-preserving aortic root reconstruction is being performed with increasing frequency. Independent of durability concerns, enthusiasm for retaining the native valve is often championed on the presumption that composite graft replacement of the aorta will be complicated by thromboembolism and bleeding. Our goal in this late follow-up study is to determine if thromboembolism or bleeding, or both, are indeed problematic after composite aortic root replacement. METHODS: Between 1995 and 2011, 306 patients (mean age, 56±14 years) underwent composite graft replacement of the aorta. St. Jude mechanical valve conduits (St. Jude Medical, St Paul, MN) were used in 242 patients, and 64 received a biologic conduit. Long-term postoperative follow-up (mean, 56 months; range, 1 to 97 months) was performed through our Aortic Database, supplemented by patient interviews and use of the Social Security Death Index. RESULTS: Hospital mortality was 2.9% overall and 1.4% in the last 8 years. Kaplan-Meier curves showed freedom (±standard deviation) from bleeding, stroke, and distal embolism as 94.3%±1.7% at 5 years and 91.3%±2.4% at 10 years. Survival was 93.5%±1.8% at 5 years and 80.9%±4.6% at 10 years, which was not statistically different from that for an age- and sex-matched population in Connecticut. Freedom from reoperation of the aortic root was 99% at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Patients had excellent survival and few thromboembolic and bleeding complications after composite aortic root replacement. These data supporting minimal morbidity in the setting of well-established durability should be used to put alternative procedures, such as valve-preserving aortic root reconstruction, into context.