ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the ability of machine learning (ML) models trained on clinical data and 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose(FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) radiomics to predict overall survival (OS), tumor grade (TG), and histologic growth pattern risk (GPR) in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients. METHODS: A total of 421 treatment-naive patients with histologically-proven LUAD and available FDG PET/CT imaging were retrospectively included. Four cohorts were assessed for predicting 4-year OS (n = 276), 3-year OS (n = 280), TG (n = 298), and GPR (n = 265). FDG-avid lesions were delineated, and 2082 radiomics features were extracted and combined with endpoint-specific clinical parameters. ML models were built for the prediction of 4-year OS (M4OS), 3-year OS (M3OS), tumor grading (MTG), and histologic growth pattern risk (MGPR). A 100-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation with 80:20 training to validation split was employed as a performance evaluation for all models. The association between the M4OS and M3OS predictions with OS was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) was the highest for M4OS (AUC 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 86.7-88.7), followed by M3OS (AUC 0.84, CI 82.9-84.9), while MTG and MGPR performed equally well (AUC 0.76, CI 74.4-77.9, CI 74.6-78, respectively). Predictions of M4OS (hazard ratio (HR) -2.4, CI -2.47 to -1.64, p < 0.05) and M3OS (HR -2.36, CI -2.79 to -1.93, p < 0.05) were independently associated with OS. CONCLUSION: ML models are able to predict long-term survival outcomes in LUAD patients with high accuracy. Furthermore, histologic grade and predominant growth pattern risk can be predicted with satisfactory accuracy. KEY POINTS: ⢠Machine learning models trained on pre-therapeutic PET/CT radiomics enable highly accurate long-term survival prediction of patients with lung adenocarcinoma. ⢠Highly accurate survival predictions are achieved in lung adenocarcinoma patients despite heterogenous histologies and treatment regimens. ⢠Radiomic machine learning models are able to predict lung adenocarcinoma tumor grade and histologic growth pattern risk with satisfactory accuracy.