No evidence for association between rs10191329 severity locus and longitudinal disease severity in 1813 relapse-onset multiple sclerosis patients from the MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND: The International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium and MultipleMS Consortium recently reported a genetic variant associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) severity. However, it remains unclear if these variants remain associated with more robust, longitudinal measures of disease severity. METHODS: We examined the top variant, rs10191329, from Harroud et al.'s study in 1813 relapse-onset MS patients from the MSBase Registry to assess association with longitudinal disease severity. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed no significant association between rs10191329 genotype and longitudinal binary disease severity (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the complexity of genetic factors mediating long-term MS outcomes and the need for further research.

Not all roads lead to the immune system: the genetic basis of multiple sclerosis severity.

Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of neurological disability in adults. Heterogeneity in multiple sclerosis clinical presentation has posed a major challenge for identifying genetic variants associated with disease outcomes. To overcome this challenge, we used prospectively ascertained clinical outcomes data from the largest international multiple sclerosis registry, MSBase. We assembled a cohort of deeply phenotyped individuals of European ancestry with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. We used unbiased genome-wide association study and machine learning approaches to assess the genetic contribution to longitudinally defined multiple sclerosis severity phenotypes in 1813 individuals. Our primary analyses did not identify any genetic variants of moderate to large effect sizes that met genome-wide significance thresholds. The strongest signal was associated with rs7289446 (ß = -0.4882, P = 2.73 × 10-7), intronic to SEZ6L on chromosome 22. However, we demonstrate that clinical outcomes in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis are associated with multiple genetic loci of small effect sizes. Using a machine learning approach incorporating over 62 000 variants together with clinical and demographic variables available at multiple sclerosis disease onset, we could predict severity with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.88). Our machine learning algorithm achieved positive predictive value for outcome assignation of 80% and negative predictive value of 88%. This outperformed our machine learning algorithm that contained clinical and demographic variables alone (area under the receiver operator curve 0.54, 95% CI 0.48-0.60). Secondary, sex-stratified analyses identified two genetic loci that met genome-wide significance thresholds. One in females (rs10967273; ßfemale = 0.8289, P = 3.52 × 10-8), the other in males (rs698805; ßmale = -1.5395, P = 4.35 × 10-8), providing some evidence for sex dimorphism in multiple sclerosis severity. Tissue enrichment and pathway analyses identified an overrepresentation of genes expressed in CNS compartments generally, and specifically in the cerebellum (P = 0.023). These involved mitochondrial function, synaptic plasticity, oligodendroglial biology, cellular senescence, calcium and G-protein receptor signalling pathways. We further identified six variants with strong evidence for regulating clinical outcomes, the strongest signal again intronic to SEZ6L (adjusted hazard ratio 0.72, P = 4.85 × 10-4). Here we report a milestone in our progress towards understanding the clinical heterogeneity of multiple sclerosis outcomes, implicating functionally distinct mechanisms to multiple sclerosis risk. Importantly, we demonstrate that machine learning using common single nucleotide variant clusters, together with clinical variables readily available at diagnosis can improve prognostic capabilities at diagnosis, and with further validation has the potential to translate to meaningful clinical practice change.

DNA Methylation Signatures of Multiple Sclerosis Occur Independently of Known Genetic Risk and Are Primarily Attributed to B Cells and Monocytes.

Epigenetic mechanisms can regulate how DNA is expressed independently of sequence and are known to be associated with various diseases. Among those epigenetic mechanisms, DNA methylation (DNAm) is influenced by genotype and the environment, making it an important molecular interface for studying disease etiology and progression. In this study, we examined the whole blood DNA methylation profiles of a large group of people with (pw) multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to those of controls. We reveal that methylation differences in pwMS occur independently of known genetic risk loci and show that they more strongly differentiate disease (AUC = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82-0.89, p = 1.22 × 10-29) than known genetic risk loci (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.76, p = 9.07 × 10-17). We also show that methylation differences in MS occur predominantly in B cells and monocytes and indicate the involvement of cell-specific biological pathways. Overall, this study comprehensively characterizes the immune cell-specific epigenetic architecture of MS.

Prediction of multiple sclerosis outcomes when switching to ocrelizumab.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) are switched to highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) such as ocrelizumab. OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of relapse and disability progression when switching from another DMT to ocrelizumab. METHODS: Patients with RRMS who switched to ocrelizumab were identified from the MSBase Registry and grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-ß/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab) and washout duration (<1 month, 1-2 months or 2-6 months). Survival analyses including multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of on-ocrelizumab relapse within 1 year, and 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP). RESULTS: After adjustment, relapse hazard when switching from fingolimod was greater than other pDMTs, but only in the first 3 months of ocrelizumab therapy (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.57-11.11, p = 0.004). The adjusted hazard for CDP was significantly higher with longer washout (2-6 m compared to <1 m: HR = 9.57, 95% CI = 1.92-47.64, p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: The risk of disability worsening during switch to ocrelizumab is reduced by short treatment gaps. Patients who cease fingolimod are at heightened relapse risk in the first 3 months on ocrelizumab. Prospective evaluation of strategies such as washout reduction may help optimise this switch.

Functional neuroplasticity in response to cerebello-thalamic injury underpins the clinical presentation of tremor in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Tremor is present in almost half of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. The lack of understanding of its pathophysiology is hampering progress in development of treatments. OBJECTIVES: To clarify the structural and functional brain changes associated with the clinical phenotype of upper limb tremor in people with MS. METHODS: Fifteen healthy controls (46.1 ± 15.4 years), 27 MS participants without tremor (46.7 ± 11.6 years) and 42 with tremor (46.6 ± 11.5 years) were included. Tremor was quantified using the Bain score (0-10) for overall severity, handwriting and Archimedes spiral drawing. Functional magnetic resonance imaging activations were compared between participants groups during performance of a joystick task designed to isolate tremulous movement. Inflammation and atrophy of cerebello-thalamo-cortical brain structures were quantified. RESULTS: Tremor participants were found to have atrophy of the cerebellum and thalamus, and higher ipsilateral cerebellar lesion load compared to participants without tremor (p < 0.020). We found higher ipsilateral activation in the inferior parietal lobule, the premotor cortex and supplementary motor area in MS tremor participants compared to MS participants without tremor during the joystick task. Finally, stronger activation in those areas was associated with lower tremor severity. CONCLUSION: Subcortical neurodegeneration and inflammation along the cerebello-thalamo-cortical and cortical functional neuroplasticity contribute to the severity of tremor in MS.

Predictors of long-term disability accrual in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of 10-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) change after treatment initiation in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Using data obtained from MSBase, we defined baseline as the date of first injectable therapy initiation. Patients need only have remained on injectable therapy for 1 day and were monitored on any approved disease-modifying therapy, or no therapy thereafter. Median EDSS score changes over a 10-year period were determined. Predictors of EDSS change were then assessed using median quantile regression analysis. Sensitivity analyses were further performed. RESULTS: We identified 2,466 patients followed up for at least 10 years reporting post-baseline disability scores. Patients were treated an average 83% of their follow-up time. EDSS scores increased by a median 1 point (interquartile range = 0-2) at 10 years post-baseline. Annualized relapse rate was highly predictive of increases in median EDSS over 10 years (coeff = 1.14, p = 1.9 × 10(-22) ). On-therapy relapses carried greater burden than off-therapy relapses. Cumulative treatment exposure was independently associated with lower EDSS at 10 years (coeff = -0.86, p = 1.3 × 10(-9) ). Furthermore, pregnancies were also independently associated with lower EDSS scores over the 10-year observation period (coeff = -0.36, p = 0.009). INTERPRETATION: We provide evidence of long-term treatment benefit in a large registry cohort, and provide evidence of long-term protective effects of pregnancy against disability accrual. We demonstrate that high annualized relapse rate, particularly on-treatment relapse, is an indicator of poor prognosis. Ann Neurol 2016;80:89-100.

A genetic basis for multiple sclerosis severity: Red herring or real?

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune degenerative disease of the central nervous system, characterized by multifocal demyelination and neurodegeneration. The genetic architecture of MS is complex, where genetic risk has been attributed to over 100 polymorphic loci each with small odds ratios. MS is a highly heterogeneous disease with numerous clinical and paraclinical endophenotypes. To-date, no genetic variant has been associated with clinical outcome, however, evidence exists that MS outcomes, like risk, are to an extent also controlled by genetic variation. Here we summarise the current evidence for genetic determination of disease outcomes and make recommendations for future research directions.

Galanin is an autocrine myelin and oligodendrocyte trophic signal induced by leukemia inhibitory factor.

In order to further investigate the molecular mechanisms that regulate oligodendrocyte (OC) survival, we utilized microarrays to characterize changes in OC gene expression after exposure to the cytokines neurotrophin3, insulin, or leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) in vitro. We identified and validated the induction and secretion of the neuropeptide galanin in OCs, specifically in response to LIF. We next established that galanin is an OC survival factor and showed that autocrine or paracrine galanin secretion mediates LIF-induced OC survival in vitro. We also revealed that galanin is up-regulated in OCs in the cuprizone model of central demyelination, and that oligodendroglial galanin expression is significantly regulated by endogenous LIF in this context. We also showed that knock-out of galanin reduces OC survival and exacerbates callosal demyelination in the cuprizone model. These findings suggest a potential role for the use of galanin agonists in the treatment of human demyelinating diseases.

Ceruloplasmin gene-deficient mice with experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis show attenuated early disease evolution.

We conducted a microarray study to identify genes that are differentially regulated in the spinal cords of mice with the inflammatory disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) relative to healthy mice. In total 181 genes with at least a two-fold increase in expression were identified, and most of these genes were associated with immune function. Unexpectedly, ceruloplasmin (Cp), a ferroxidase that converts toxic ferrous iron to its nontoxic ferric form and also promotes the efflux of iron from astrocytes in the CNS, was shown to be highly upregulated (13.2-fold increase) in EAE spinal cord. Expression of Cp protein is known to be increased in several neurological conditions, but the role of Cp regulation in CNS autoimmune disease is not known. To investigate this, we induced EAE in Cp gene knockout, heterozygous, and wild-type mice. Cp knockout mice were found to have slower disease evolution than wild-type mice (EAE days 13-17; P = 0.05). Interestingly, Cp knockout mice also exhibited a significant increase in the number of astrocytes with reactive morphology in early EAE compared with wild-type mice at the same stage of disease. CNS iron levels were not increased with EAE in these mice. Based on these observations, we propose that an increase in Cp expression could contribute to tissue damage in early EAE. In addition, endogenous CP either directly or indirectly inhibits astrocyte reactivity during early disease, which could also worsen early disease evolution.

Risk of Cervical Abnormalities for Women With Multiple Sclerosis Treated With Moderate-Efficacy and High-Efficacy Disease-Modifying Therapies.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The impact of immunomodulatory therapies on the risk of cervical pre-cancer and invasive cancer development is important for the health and safety of women with multiple sclerosis (wwMS). We investigate the risk of cervical abnormalities in wwMS treated with disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). METHODS: This is a multicenter cohort study with data collected from 1998 to 2019 in Victoria, Australia. Data linkage was performed using matching records from the MSBase Registry, the National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program Register, and the Victorian Cervical Cytology Register. The primary outcome was the detection of any type of cervical abnormality as determined by cytology or histology. Survival methods were used to assess the time to cervical abnormality detection on cervical screening tests (CSTs). Crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine time to and magnitude of association of DMTs with the risk of cervical abnormality. In a sensitivity analysis, we constructed standardized survival curves averaged over the same set of covariates to determine the commensurate population-average (marginal) causal effects. RESULTS: We included 248 wwMS. The incidence of abnormal CSTs was lower (p < 0.001) for women not exposed to moderate-high-efficacy therapy (10.2 per 1,000 patient-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5-14.9]), compared with those exposed (36.6 per 1,000 patient-years [95% CI 21.7-51.6]). Exposure to higher efficacy treatment was associated with a 3.79-fold increased hazard (95% CI 2.02-7.08, p < 0.001) of developing a cervical abnormality relative to those not exposed. When adjusted for vaccination status, smoking, hormonal contraceptive use, and socioeconomic status, the risk remained elevated at 3.79 (95% CI 1.99-7.21, p < 0.001). Marginal hazard ratios declined over time, ranging from 3.90 (95% CI 2.09-7.27) at 20 years of age to 2.06 (95% CI 1.14-3.73) at 70 years of age. DISCUSSION: A greater than three-and-a-half-fold increased risk of cervical abnormalities was found after exposure to moderate-high-efficacy DMTs. This risk persisted despite adjusting for HPV vaccination status, hormonal contraception use, smoking, and socioeconomic status. If confirmed in future studies, we would advocate for wwMS exposed to moderate-high-efficacy DMTs to be treated in line with immune-deficient paradigm in cervical screening and HPV vaccination programs. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that highly active MS therapy compared with less active therapy increases the risk of developing cervical abnormalities among women with MS.

The impact of menopause on multiple sclerosis.

Menopause, defined as the permanent cessation of ovarian function, represents a period of significant fluctuation in sex hormone concentrations. Sex hormones including oestrogen, progesterone, testosterone and anti-Mullerian hormone are thought have neuroinflammatory effects and are implicated in both neuroprotection and neurodegeneration. Sex hormones have a role in modifying clinical trajectory in multiple sclerosis (MS) throughout the lifespan. MS predominantly effects women and is typically diagnosed early in a woman's reproductive life. Most women with MS will undergo menopause. Despite this, the effect of menopause on MS disease course remains unclear. This review examines the relationship between sex hormones and MS disease activity and clinical course, particularly around the time of menopause. It will consider the role of interventions such as exogenous hormone replacement therapy in modulating clinical outcomes in this period. Understanding the impact of menopause on multiple sclerosis is fundamental for delivering optimal care to women with MS as they age and will inform treatment decisions with the aim of minimising relapses, disease accrual and improving quality of life.

Risk of cervical pre-cancer and cancer in women with multiple sclerosis exposed to high efficacy disease modifying therapies.

There is a growing need to better understand the risk of malignancy in the multiple sclerosis (MS) population, particularly given the relatively recent and widespread introduction of immunomodulating disease modifying therapies (DMTs). Multiple sclerosis disproportionately affects women, and the risk of gynecological malignancies, specifically cervical pre-cancer and cancer, are of particular concern. The causal relationship between persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer has been definitively established. To date, there is limited data on the effect of MS DMTs on the risk of persistent HPV infection and subsequent progression to cervical pre-cancer and cancer. This review evaluates the risk of cervical pre-cancer and cancer in women with MS, including the risk conferred by DMTs. We examine additional factors, specific to the MS population, that alter the risk of developing cervical cancer including participation in HPV vaccination and cervical screening programs.

Conceiving complexity: Biological mechanisms underpinning the lasting effect of pregnancy on multiple sclerosis outcomes.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune, demyelinating disease with the highest incidence in women of childbearing age. The effect of pregnancy on disease activity and progression is a primary concern for women with MS and their clinical teams. It is well established that inflammatory disease activity is naturally suppressed during pregnancy, followed by an increase postpartum. However, the long-term effect of pregnancy on disease progression is less understood. Having had a pregnancy before MS onset has been associated with an older age at first demyelinating event, an average delay of 3.4 years. After MS onset, there is conflicting evidence about the impact of pregnancy on long-term outcomes. The study with the longest follow-up to date showed that pregnancy was associated with a 0.36-point lower disability score after 10-years of disease in 1830 women. Understanding the biological mechanism by which pregnancy induces long-term beneficial effects on MS outcomes could provide mechanistic insights into the elusive determinants of secondary progression. Here, we review potential biological processes underlying this effect, including evidence that acute sex hormone exposure induces lasting changes to neurobiological and DNA methylation patterns, and how sustained methylation changes in immune cells can alter immune composition and function long-term.

Parity is associated with long-term differences in DNA methylation at genes related to neural plasticity in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy in women with multiple sclerosis (wwMS) is associated with a reduction of long-term disability progression. The mechanism that drives this effect is unknown, but converging evidence suggests a role for epigenetic mechanisms altering immune and/or central nervous system function. In this study, we aimed to identify whole blood and immune cell-specific DNA methylation patterns associated with parity in relapse-onset MS. RESULTS: We investigated the association between whole blood and immune cell-type-specific genome-wide methylation patterns and parity in 192 women with relapse-onset MS, matched for age and disease severity. The median time from last pregnancy to blood collection was 16.7 years (range = 1.5-44.4 years). We identified 2965 differentially methylated positions in whole blood, 68.5% of which were hypermethylated in parous women; together with two differentially methylated regions on Chromosomes 17 and 19 which mapped to TMC8 and ZNF577, respectively. Our findings validated 22 DMPs and 366 differentially methylated genes from existing literature on epigenetic changes associated with parity in wwMS. Differentially methylated genes in whole blood were enriched in neuronal structure and growth-related pathways. Immune cell-type-specific analysis using cell-type proportion estimates from statistical deconvolution of whole blood revealed further differential methylation in T cells specifically (four in CD4+ and eight in CD8+ T cells). We further identified reduced methylation age acceleration in parous women, demonstrating slower biological aging compared to nulligravida women. CONCLUSION: Differential methylation at genes related to neural plasticity offers a potential molecular mechanism driving the long-term effect of pregnancy on MS outcomes. Our results point to a potential 'CNS signature' of methylation in peripheral immune cells, as previously described in relation to MS progression, induced by parity. As the first epigenome-wide association study of parity in wwMS reported, validation studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Interferon beta treatment is a potent and targeted epigenetic modifier in multiple sclerosis.

Introduction: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has a complex pathophysiology that involves genetic and environmental factors. DNA methylation (DNAm) is one epigenetic mechanism that can reversibly modulate gene expression. Cell specific DNAm changes have been associated with MS, and some MS therapies such as dimethyl fumarate can influence DNAm. Interferon Beta (IFNß), was one of the first disease modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis (MS). However, how IFNß reduces disease burden in MS is not fully understood and little is known about the precise effect of IFNß treatment on methylation. Methods: The objective of this study was to determine the changes in DNAm associated with INFß use, using methylation arrays and statistical deconvolutions on two separate datasets (total ntreated = 64, nuntreated = 285). Results: We show that IFNß treatment in people with MS modifies the methylation profile of interferon response genes in a strong, targeted, and reproducible manner. Using these identified methylation differences, we constructed a methylation treatment score (MTS) that is an accurate discriminator between untreated and treated patients (Area under the curve = 0.83). This MTS is time-sensitive and in consistent with previously identified IFNß treatment therapeutic lag. This suggests that methylation changes are required for treatment efficacy. Overrepresentation analysis found that IFNß treatment recruits the endogenous anti-viral molecular machinery. Finally, statistical deconvolution revealed that dendritic cells and regulatory CD4+ T cells were most affected by IFNß induced methylation changes. Discussion: In conclusion, our study shows that IFNß treatment is a potent and targeted epigenetic modifier in multiple sclerosis.

Family planning considerations in people with multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is often diagnosed in patients who are planning on having children. Although multiple sclerosis does not negatively influence most pregnancy outcomes, less is known regarding the effects of fetal exposure to novel disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). The withdrawal of some DMTs during pregnancy can modify the natural history of multiple sclerosis, resulting in a substantial risk of pregnancy-related relapse and disability. Drug labels are typically restrictive and favour fetal safety over maternal safety. Emerging data reporting outcomes in neonates exposed to DMTs in utero and through breastfeeding will allow for more careful and individualised treatment decisions. This emerging research is particularly important to guide decision making in women with high disease activity or who are treated with DMTs associated with risk of discontinuation rebound. As increasing data are generated in this field, periodic updates will be required to provide the most up to date guidance on how best to achieve multiple sclerosis stability during pregnancy and post partum, balanced with fetal and newborn safety.

Whole-blood methylation signatures are associated with and accurately classify multiple sclerosis disease severity.

BACKGROUND: The variation in multiple sclerosis (MS) disease severity is incompletely explained by genetics, suggesting genetic and environmental interactions are involved. Moreover, the lack of prognostic biomarkers makes it difficult for clinicians to optimise care. DNA methylation is one epigenetic mechanism by which gene-environment interactions can be assessed. Here, we aimed to identify DNA methylation patterns associated with mild and severe relapse-onset MS (RMS) and to test the utility of methylation as a predictive biomarker. METHODS: We conducted an epigenome-wide association study between 235 females with mild (n = 119) or severe (n = 116) with RMS. Methylation was measured with the Illumina methylationEPIC array and analysed using logistic regression. To generate hypotheses about the functional consequence of differential methylation, we conducted gene set enrichment analysis using ToppGene. We compared the accuracy of three machine learning models in classifying disease severity: (1) clinical data available at baseline (age at onset and first symptoms) built using elastic net (EN) regression, (2) methylation data using EN regression and (3) a weighted methylation risk score of differentially methylated positions (DMPs) from the main analysis using logistic regression. We used a conservative 70:30 test:train split for classification modelling. A false discovery rate threshold of 0.05 was used to assess statistical significance. RESULTS: Females with mild or severe RMS had 1472 DMPs in whole blood (839 hypermethylated, 633 hypomethylated in the severe group). Differential methylation was enriched in genes related to neuronal cellular compartments and processes, and B-cell receptor signalling. Whole-blood methylation levels at 1708 correlated CpG sites classified disease severity more accurately (machine learning model 2, AUC = 0.91) than clinical data (model 1, AUC = 0.74) or the wMRS (model 3, AUC = 0.77). Of the 1708 selected CpGs, 100 overlapped with DMPs from the main analysis at the gene level. These overlapping genes were enriched in neuron projection and dendrite extension, lending support to our finding that neuronal processes, rather than immune processes, are implicated in disease severity. CONCLUSION: RMS disease severity is associated with whole-blood methylation at genes related to neuronal structure and function. Moreover, correlated whole-blood methylation patterns can assign disease severity in females with RMS more accurately than clinical data available at diagnosis.

Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Natalizumab and Fingolimod in Patients with Inadequate Response to Disease-Modifying Therapies in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources. RESULTS: The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in CDW6M was found between treatment groups. Natalizumab dominated (higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and lower costs) fingolimod in the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis (0.453 higher QALYs and £20,843 lower costs per patient). Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This novel real-world analysis suggests a clinical benefit for therapy escalation to natalizumab versus fingolimod based on comparative effectiveness results, translating to higher QALYs and lower costs for UK patients inadequately responding to BRACETD.