Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas-implications for environmental monitoring.

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5-7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species' ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40-50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the "ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring".

A multivariate Baltic Sea environmental index.

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.

Transcriptome analysis provides new insights into liver changes induced in the rat upon dietary administration of the food additives butylated hydroxytoluene, curcumin, propyl gallate and thiabendazole.

Transcriptomics was performed to gain insight into mechanisms of food additives butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT), curcumin (CC), propyl gallate (PG), and thiabendazole (TB), additives for which interactions in the liver can not be excluded. Additives were administered in diets for 28 days to Sprague-Dawley rats and cDNA microarray experiments were performed on hepatic RNA. BHT induced changes in the expression of 10 genes, including phase I (CYP2B1/2; CYP3A9; CYP2C6) and phase II metabolism (GST mu2). The CYP2B1/2 and GST expression findings were confirmed by real time RT-PCR, western blotting, and increased GST activity towards DCNB. CC altered the expression of 12 genes. Three out of these were related to peroxisomes (phytanoyl-CoA dioxygenase, enoyl-CoA hydratase; CYP4A3). Increased cyanide insensitive palmitoyl-CoA oxidation was observed, suggesting that CC is a weak peroxisome proliferator. TB changed the expression of 12 genes, including CYP1A2. In line, CYP1A2 protein expression was increased. The expression level of five genes, associated with p53 was found to change upon TB treatment, including p53 itself, GADD45alpha, DN-7, protein kinase C beta and serum albumin. These array experiments led to the novel finding that TB is capable of inducing p53 at the protein level, at least at the highest dose levels employed above the current NOAEL. The expression of eight genes changed upon PG administration. This study shows the value of gene expression profiling in food toxicology in terms of generating novel hypotheses on the mechanisms of action of food additives in relation to pathology.

Five-day inhalation toxicity study of three types of synthetic amorphous silicas in Wistar rats and post-exposure evaluations for up to 3 months.

Evidence suggests that short-term animal exposures to synthetic amorphous silicas (SAS) and crystalline silica can provide comparable prediction of toxicity to those of 90-day studies, therefore providing the opportunity to screen these types of substances using short-term rather than 90-day studies. To investigate this hypothesis, the inhalation toxicity of three SAS, precipitated silica Zeosil 45, silica gel Syloid 74, and pyrogenic silica Cab-O-Sil M5 was studied in Wistar rats. Rats were exposed nose-only to concentrations of 1, 5 or 25mg/m(3) of one of the SAS 6h a day for five consecutive days. Positive controls were exposed to 25mg/m(3) crystalline silica (quartz dust), negative controls to clean air. Animals were necropsied the day after the last exposure or 1 or 3 months later. All exposures were tolerated without serious clinical effects, changes in body weight or food intake. Differences in the effects associated with exposure to the three types of SAS were limited and almost exclusively confined to the 1-day post-exposure time point. Silicon levels in tracheobronchial lymph nodes were below the detection limit in all groups at all time points. Silicon was found in the lungs of all high concentration SAS groups 1-day post-exposure, and was cleared 3 months later. Exposure to all three SAS at 25mg/m(3) induced elevations in biomarkers of cytotoxicity in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALf), increases in lung and tracheobronchial lymph node weight and histopathological lung changes 1-day post-exposure. Exposure to all three SAS at 5mg/m(3) induced histopathological changes and changes in BALf only. With all three SAS these effects were transient and, with the exception of slight histopathological lung changes at the higher exposure levels, were reversible during the 3-month recovery period. No adverse changes were observed in animals exposed to any of the SAS at 1mg/m(3). In contrast, with quartz-exposed animals the presence of silicon in the lungs was persistent and toxicological effects differed from those seen with SAS both with regard to the type and severity as well as in the time-response profile. In quartz-exposed animals silicon in the tracheobronchial lymph nodes was below the detection limit but silicon was found in the lungs at comparable levels 0-, 1- and 3-months post-exposure. One-day post-exposure to quartz, elevations in biomarkers of cytotoxicity in BALf, increases in lung and tracheobronchial lymph node weight and histopathological lung changes were minimal. These effects were present at 1-month post-exposure and progressively more severe at 3-months post-exposure. Overall, the results of the current study are similar to those of other published studies that had a 90-day exposure period and both types of studies indicate that the lack of lung clearance is a key factor in the development of silicosis.