The Signature of Endemic Populations in the Spread of Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks.

The mountain pine beetle (MPB) is among the most destructive eruptive forest pests in North America. A recent increase in the frequency and severity of outbreaks, combined with an eastward range expansion towards untouched boreal pine forests, has spurred a great interest by government, industry and academia into the population ecology of this tree-killing bark beetle. Modern approaches to studying the spread of the MPB often involve the analysis of large-scale, high-resolution datasets on landscape-level damage to pine forests. This creates a need for new modelling tools to handle the unique challenges associated with large sample sizes and spatial effects. In two companion papers (Koch et al. in Environ Ecol Stat. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-020-00456-2 , 2020a; J R Soc Interface 17(170):20200434, 2020b), we explain how the computational challenges of dispersal and spatial autocorrelation can be addressed using separable kernels. In this paper, we use these ideas to capture nonstationary patterns in the dispersal flights of MPB. This facilitates a landscape-level inference of subtle properties of MPB attack behaviour based on aerial surveys of killed pine. Using this model, we estimate the size of the cryptic endemic MPB population, which formerly has been measurable only by means of costly and time-intensive ground surveys.

Edge removal in random contact networks and the basic reproduction number.

Understanding the effect of edge removal on the basic reproduction number R0 for disease spread on contact networks is important for disease management. The formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in random network SIR models of configuration type suggests that for degree distributions with large variance, a reduction of the average degree may actually increase R0. To understand this phenomenon, we develop a dynamical model for the evolution of the degree distribution under random edge removal, and show that truly random removal always reduces R0. The discrepancy implies that any increase in R0 must result from edge removal changing the network type, invalidating the use of the basic reproduction number formula for a random contact network. We further develop an epidemic model incorporating a contact network consisting of two groups of nodes with random intra- and inter-group connections, and derive its basic reproduction number. We then prove that random edge removal within either group, and between groups, always decreases the appropriately defined R0. Our models also allow an estimation of the number of edges that need to be removed in order to curtail an epidemic.

A unifying theory for two-dimensional spatial redistribution kernels with applications in population spread modelling.

When building models to explain the dispersal patterns of organisms, ecologists often use an isotropic redistribution kernel to represent the distribution of movement distances based on phenomenological observations or biological considerations of the underlying physical movement mechanism. The Gaussian, two-dimensional (2D) Laplace and Bessel kernels are common choices for 2D space. All three are special (or limiting) cases of a kernel family, the Whittle-Matérn-Yasuda (WMY), first derived by Yasuda from an assumption of 2D Fickian diffusion with gamma-distributed settling times. We provide a novel derivation of this kernel family, using the simpler assumption of constant settling hazard, by means of a non-Fickian 2D diffusion equation representing movements through heterogeneous 2D media having a fractal structure. Our derivation reveals connections among a number of established redistribution kernels, unifying them under a single, flexible modelling framework. We demonstrate improvements in predictive performance in an established model for the spread of the mountain pine beetle upon replacing the Gaussian kernel by the Whittle-Matérn-Yasuda, and report similar results for a novel approximation, the product-Whittle-Matérn-Yasuda, that substantially speeds computations in applications to large datasets.

Aroma biosynthesis in strawberry: s-adenosylmethionine:furaneol o-methyltransferase activity in ripening fruits.

Among the most important volatile compounds in the aroma of strawberries are 2,5-dimethyl-4-hydroxy-3(2H)-furanone (Furaneol) and its methoxy derivative (methoxyfuraneol, mesifuran). Three strawberry varieties, Malach, Tamar, and Yael, were assessed for total volatiles, Furaneol, and methoxyfuraneol. The content of these compounds sharply increased during fruit ripening, with maximum values at the ripe stage. An enzymatic activity that transfers a methyl group from S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) to Furaneol sharply increases during ripening of strawberry fruits. The in vitro generated methoxyfuraneol was identified by radio-TLC and GC-MS. The partially purified enzyme had a native molecular mass of approximately 80 kDa, with optimum activity at pH 8.5 and 37 degrees C. A high apparent K(m) of 5 mM was calculated for Furaneol, whereas this enzyme preparation apparently accepted as substrates other o-dihydroxyphenol derivatives (such as catechol, caffeic acid, and protocatechuic aldehyde) with much higher affinities (K(m) approximately 105, 130, and 20 microM, respectively). A K(m) for SAM was found to be approximately 5 microM, regardless of the acceptor used. Substrates that contained a phenolic group with only one OH group, such as p-coumaric and trans-ferulic acid, as well as trans-anol and coniferyl alcohol, were apparently not accepted by this activity. It is suggested that Furaneol methylation is mediated by an O-methyltransferase activity and that this activity increases during fruit ripening.