ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Two models are mostly used to predict survival in cirrhosis: the Child-Pugh score (CP score) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD score). AIMS: The aim of this study is to evaluate the CP score and the MELD score for short- and long-term prognosis in cirrhosis, as well as CP-creatinine score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score. METHODS: One thousand and forty-seven patients from five referral centers were included: men/women: 620/427, median age: 58 years (IQR 48-66), median follow-up: 33 months (IQR 12-74), CP (A/B/C): 493/357/147, CP score: 7 (IQR 5-9), MELD score: 12 (IQR 9-16). The performance of each score was evaluated by the Cox hazard model in terms of their: discrimination ability (C-index and Somer's D) and calibration (3, 12 months). Internal validation was done with bootstrapping (100 samples). RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-two patients (33.6%) died. All scores were significantly associated with overall mortality, when assessed by univariate Cox analysis. CP-creatinine score performed significantly better than all other scores [bootstrap C-index 0.672, 95% CI 0.642-0.703, bootstrap Somer's D 0.344 (0.285-0.401)], apart from CP score, which showed similar performance. Inclusion in the multivariable Cox model of age together with CP-creatinine score improved the discriminative ability of the model [bootstrap C-index (95% CI) 0.700 (0.661-0.740)]. In terms of calibration, CP-creatinine score was the best for both 3- and 12-month survival in the total population. CONCLUSIONS: CP score and CP-creatinine score have better prognostic value compared to MELD score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with stable cirrhosis.
Subject(s)
Liver Cirrhosis/pathology , Aged , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Liver Cirrhosis/complications , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Biological , Prognosis , Risk Factors , Survival AnalysisABSTRACT
AIM: To investigate the adipokine levels of leptin, adiponectin, resistin, visfatin, retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4), apelin in alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC). METHODS: Forty non-diabetic ALC patients [median age: 59 years, males: 35 (87.5%), Child-Pugh (CP) score: median 7 (5-12), CP A/B/C: 18/10/12, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD): median 10 (6-25), follow-up: median 32.5 mo (10-43)] were prospectively included. The serum adipokine levels were estimated in duplicate by ELISA. Somatometric characteristics were assessed with tetrapolar bioelectrical impedance analysis. Pearson's rank correlation coefficient was used to assess possible associations with adipokine levels. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine independent predictors for overall survival. RESULTS: Body mass index: median 25.9 (range: 20.1-39.3), fat: 23.4% (7.6-42.1), fat mass: 17.8 (5.49-45.4), free fat mass: 56.1 (39.6-74.4), total body water (TBW): 40.6 (29.8-58.8). Leptin and visfatin levels were positively associated with fat mass (P < 0.001/P = 0.027, respectively) and RBP4 with TBW (P = 0.025). Median adiponectin levels were significantly higher in CPC compared to CPA (CPA: 7.99 ± 14.07, CPB: 7.66 ± 3.48, CPC: 25.73 ± 26.8, P = 0.04), whereas median RBP4 and apelin levels decreased across the spectrum of disease severity (P = 0.006/P = 0.034, respectively). Following adjustment for fat mass, visfatin and adiponectin levels were significantly increased from CPA to CPC (both P < 0.001), whereas an inverse correlation was observed for both RBP4 and apelin (both P < 0.001). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, only MELD had an independent association with overall survival (HR = 1.53, 95%CI: 1.05-2.32; P = 0.029). CONCLUSION: Adipokines are associated with deteriorating liver function in a complex manner in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.