Newer Pharmacologic Treatments in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: Newer diabetes medications may have beneficial effects on mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, and renal outcomes. PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness, comparative effectiveness, and harms of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP1) agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors, and long-acting insulins as monotherapy or combination therapy in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published from 2010 through January 2023. STUDY SELECTION: RCTs lasting at least 52 weeks that included at least 500 adults with T2DM receiving eligible medications and reported any outcomes of interest. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were abstracted by 1 reviewer and verified by a second. Independent, dual assessments of risk of bias and certainty of evidence (CoE) were done. DATA SYNTHESIS: A total of 130 publications from 84 RCTs were identified. CoE was appraised using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) criteria for direct, indirect, and network meta-analysis (NMA); the highest CoE was reported. Compared with usual care, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (high CoE) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (moderate to high CoE), SGLT2 inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure hospitalizations and GLP1 agonists reduce stroke (high CoE), and SGLT2 inhibitors reduce serious adverse events and severe hypoglycemia (high CoE). The threshold for minimally important differences, which was predefined with the American College of Physicians Clinical Guidelines Committee, was not met for these outcomes. Compared with usual care, insulin, tirzepatide, and DPP4 inhibitors do not reduce all-cause mortality (low to high CoE). Compared with insulin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (low to moderate CoE). Compared with DPP4 inhibitors, GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (moderate CoE). Compared with DPP4 inhibitors and sulfonylurea (SU), SGLT2 inhibitors reduce MACE (moderate to high CoE). Compared with SU and insulin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce severe hypoglycemia (low to high CoE). LIMITATIONS: Infrequent direct comparisons between drugs of interest; sparse data for NMA on most outcomes; possible incoherence due to differences in baseline patient characteristics and usual care; insufficient data on predefined subgroups, including demographic subgroups, patients with prior cardiovascular disease, and treatment-naive persons. CONCLUSION: In adults with T2DM, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists (but not DPP4 inhibitors, insulin, or tirzepatide) reduce all-cause mortality and MACE compared with usual care. SGLT2 inhibitors reduce CKD progression and heart failure hospitalization and GLP1 agonists reduce stroke compared with usual care. Serious adverse events and severe hypoglycemia are less frequent with SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists than with insulin or SU. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American College of Physicians. (PROSPERO: CRD42022322129).

Cost-Effectiveness of Newer Pharmacologic Treatments in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, costs of antidiabetes medications exceed $327 billion. PURPOSE: To systematically review cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of newer antidiabetes medications for type 2 diabetes. DATA SOURCES: Bibliographic databases from 1 January 2010 through 13 July 2023, limited to English. STUDY SELECTION: Nonindustry-funded CEAs, done from a U.S. perspective that estimated cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for newer antidiabetic medications. Two reviewers screened the literature; disagreements were resolved with a third reviewer. DATA EXTRACTION: Cost-effectiveness analyses were reviewed for treatment comparisons, model inputs, and outcomes. Risk of bias (RoB) of the CEAs was assessed using Drummond criteria and certainty of evidence (CoE) was assessed using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluations). Certainty of evidence was determined using cost per QALY thresholds predetermined by the American College of Physicians Clinical Guidelines Committee; low (>$150 000), intermediate ($50 to $150 000), or high (<$50 000) value per QALY compared with the alternative. DATA SYNTHESIS: Nine CEAs were eligible (2 low, 1 high, and 6 some concerns RoB), evaluating glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP1a), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide agonist (GIP/GLP1a), and insulin. Comparators were metformin, sulfonylureas, neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin, and others. Compared with metformin, GLP1a and SGLT2i are low value as first-line therapy (high CoE) but may be of intermediate value when added to metformin or background therapy compared with adding nothing (low CoE). Insulin analogues may be similarly effective but more expensive than NPH insulin (low CoE). The GIP/GLP1a value is uncertain (insufficient CoE). LIMITATIONS: Cost-effectiveness analyses varied in methodological approach, assumptions, and drug comparisons. Risk of bias and GRADE method for CEAs are not well established. CONCLUSION: Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists and SGLT2i are of low value as first-line therapy but may be of intermediate value when added to metformin or other background therapy compared with adding nothing. Other drugs and comparisons are of low or uncertain value. Results are sensitive to drug effectiveness and cost assumptions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American College of Physicians. (PROSPERO: CRD42022382315).

Estimating the Effect of Radical Prostatectomy: Combining Data From the SPCG4 and PIVOT Randomized Trials With Contemporary Cohorts.

PURPOSE: Two randomized trials (SPCG4 and PIVOT) have compared surgery to conservative management for localized prostate cancer. The applicability of these trials to contemporary practice remains uncertain. We aimed to develop an individualized prediction model for prostate cancer mortality comparing immediate surgery at a high-volume center to active surveillance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We determined whether the relative risk of prostate cancer mortality with surgery vs observation varied by baseline risk. We then used various estimates of relative risk to estimate 15-year mortality with and without surgery using, as a predictor, risk of biochemical recurrence calculated from a model. RESULTS: We saw no evidence that relative risk varied by baseline risk, supporting the use of a constant relative risk. Compared with observation, surgery was associated with negligible benefit for patients with Grade Group (GG) 1 disease (0.2% mortality reduction at 15 years) and small benefit for patients with GG2 with lower PSA and stage (≤5% mortality reduction). Benefit was greater (6%-9%) for patients with GG3 or GG4 though still modest, but effect estimates varied widely depending on choice of hazard ratio for surgery (6%-36% absolute risk reduction). CONCLUSIONS: Surgery should be avoided for men with low-risk (GG1) prostate cancer and for many men with GG2 disease. Surgical benefits are greater in men with higher-risk disease. Integration of findings with a life expectancy model will allow patients to make informed treatment decisions given their oncologic risk, risk of death from other causes, and estimated effects of surgery.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation and Health Care Costs in Older Community-Dwelling Adults: Importance of Functional Impairment and Frailty.

BACKGROUND: Low neighborhood socioeconomic status is associated with adverse health outcomes, but its association with health care costs in older adults is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association of neighborhood Area Deprivation Index (ADI) with total, inpatient, outpatient, skilled nursing facility (SNF), and home health care (HHC) costs among older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries, and determine whether these associations are explained by multimorbidity, phenotypic frailty, or functional impairments. DESIGN: Four prospective cohort studies linked with each other and with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (mean age 79.2 years, 52.9% female). MAIN MEASURES: ADI of participant residence census tract, Hierarchical Conditions Category multimorbidity score, self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing four activities of daily living), and frailty phenotype. Total, inpatient, outpatient, post-acute SNF, and HHC costs (US 2020 dollars) for 36 months after the index examination. KEY RESULTS: Mean incremental annualized total health care costs adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex increased with ADI ($3317 [95% CI 1274 to 5360] for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile, and overall p-value for ADI variable 0.009). The incremental cost for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile was increasingly attenuated after separate adjustment for multimorbidity ($2407 [95% CI 416 to 4398], overall ADI p-value 0.066), frailty phenotype ($1962 [95% CI 11 to 3913], overall ADI p-value 0.22), or functional impairments ($1246 [95% CI -706 to 3198], overall ADI p-value 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Total health care costs are higher for older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries residing in the most socioeconomically deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas. This association was not significant after accounting for the higher prevalence of phenotypic frailty and functional impairments among residents of socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods.

Incremental Health Care Costs of Self-Reported Functional Impairments and Phenotypic Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older Adults : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care systems need better strategies to identify older adults at risk for costly care to select target populations for interventions to reduce health care burden. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with incremental health care costs after accounting for claims-based predictors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Index examinations (2002 to 2011) of 4 prospective cohort studies linked with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (4318 women, 3847 men). MEASUREMENTS: Weighted (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Category index) and unweighted (count of conditions) multimorbidity and frailty indicators derived from claims. Self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing 4 activities of daily living) and frailty phenotype (operationalized using 5 components) derived from cohort data. Health care costs ascertained for 36 months after index examinations. RESULTS: Average annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) were $13 906 among women and $14 598 among men. After accounting for claims-based indicators, average incremental costs of functional impairments versus no impairment in women (men) were $3328 ($2354) for 1 impairment increasing to $7330 ($11 760) for 4 impairments; average incremental costs of phenotypic frailty versus robust in women (men) were $8532 ($6172). Mean predicted costs adjusted for claims-based indicators in women (men) varied by both functional impairments and the frailty phenotype ranging from $8124 ($11 831) among robust persons without impairments to $18 792 ($24 713) among frail persons with 4 impairments. Compared with the model with claims-derived indicators alone, this model resulted in more accurate cost prediction for persons with multiple impairments or phenotypic frailty. LIMITATION: Cost data limited to participants enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service program. CONCLUSION: Self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with higher subsequent health care expenditures in community-dwelling beneficiaries after accounting for several claims-based indicators of costs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Replacing sedentary time for physical activity: Does intensity matter for body composition in oldest-old adults?

To assess the independent and combined relationships among objectively measured sedentary time (ST), light intensity PA (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA) with muscle mass and fat mass (FM) and how theoretical displacement of these inter-dependent behaviours relates to body composition in oldest-old men. A total of 1046 men participating in the year 14 visit of the prospective Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) cohort study with complete data for accelerometry, dual x-ray absorptiometry, and deuterated creatine dilution (D3Cr) muscle mass were included in the analysis (84.0 ± 3.8 yrs.). Single, partition, and isotemporal substitution models were used to assess the interrelationships between PA intensities and ST with body composition measures, while controlling for relevant confounders. Replacing 30-min of ST with 30-min of MVPA was associated with lower FM (ß =-0.17, p < 0.001) and higher D3Cr muscle mass, although this was of borderline significance (ß = 0.07, p = 0.05). Replacing 30-min of ST for LPA was associated with lower FM (ß =-0.15, p < 0.001), but there was no effect on D3Cr muscle mass (p > 0.05). Exchanging ST with any intensity of PA is associated with benefits for FM in oldest-old adult men, although substitution with MVPA may be more beneficial than LPA for maintaining/improving skeletal muscle mass.

Physical activity and diet associations with the gut microbiota in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

BACKGROUND: Gut microbiota may influence metabolic pathways related to chronic health conditions. Evidence for physical activity and diet influences on gut microbial composition exists, but data from diverse population-based cohort studies are limited. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that gut microbial diversity and genera are associated with physical activity and diet quality. METHODS: Data were from 537 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, a prospective cohort, who attended the year 30 follow-up examination (2015-2016; aged 47-61 y; 45% Black race/55% White race; 45% men/55% women). The 16S ribosomal RNA marker gene was sequenced from stool DNA, and genus-level taxonomy was assigned. Within-person microbial diversity (α-diversity) was assessed with Shannon diversity index and richness scores; between-person diversity (ß-diversity) measures were generated with principal coordinates analysis (PCoA). Current and long-term physical activity and diet quality measures were derived from data collected over 30 y of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted regression analysis controlled for: sociodemographic variables (age, race, sex, education, and field center), other health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, and medication use), and adjusted for multiple comparisons with the false discovery rate (<0.20). RESULTS: Based on PCoA ß-diversity, participants' microbial community compositions differed significantly (P < 0.001), with respect to both current and long-term physical activity and diet quality. α-Diversity was associated only with current physical activity (positively) in multivariable-adjusted analysis. Multiple genera (n = 45) were associated with physical activity and fewer with diet (n = 5), including positive associations with Lachnospiraceae UCG-001 and Ruminococcaceae IncertaeSedis with both behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity and diet quality were associated with gut microbial composition among 537 participants in the CARDIA study. Multiple genera were associated with physical activity. Physical activity and diet quality were associated with genera consistent with pathways related to inflammation and short-chain fatty acid production.

Relation Between Dietary Protein Intake and Gut Microbiome Composition in Community-Dwelling Older Men: Findings from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association of specific nutrients, especially proteins, on age-related gut dysbiosis. OBJECTIVES: To determine the associations between the quantity and sources (vegetable and animal) of dietary protein intake and gut microbiome composition in community-dwelling older men. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis on 775 older men from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) (age 84.2 ± 4.0 y) with available dietary information and stool samples at visit 4 (2014-2016). Protein intake was estimated from a brief FFQ and adjusted to total energy intake. The gut microbiome composition was determined by 16S (v4) sequencing (processed by DADA2 and SILVA). A total of 11,534 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were identified and assigned to 21 phyla with dominance of Firmicutes (45%) and Bacteroidetes (43%). We performed α-diversity, ß-diversity, and taxa abundance (by Analysis of Compositions of Microbiomes with Bias Correction [ANCOM-BC]) to determine the associations between protein intake and the gut microbiome. RESULTS: Median protein intake was 0.7 g/(kg body weight · d). Participants with higher energy-adjusted protein intakes had higher Shannon and Chao1 α-diversity indices (P < 0.05). For ß-diversity analysis, participants with higher protein intakes had a different center in weighted and unweighted UniFrac Principal Co-ordinates Analysis (PCoA) compared with those with lower intake (P < 0.05), adjusted for age, race, education, clinical center, batch number, fiber and energy intake, weight, height, and medications. Similarly, higher protein consumptions from either animal or vegetable sources were associated with higher gut microbiome diversity. Several genus-level ASVs, including Christensenellaceae, Veillonella, Haemophilus, and Klebsiella were more abundant in participants with higher protein intakes, whereas Clostridiales bacterium DTU089 and Desulfovibrio were more abundant in participants with lower protein intake (Bonferroni corrected P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We observed significant associations between protein intake and gut microbiome diversity in community-living older men. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mediation role of the gut microbiome on the relation between protein intake and health outcomes in older adults.

Major Update 2: Remdesivir for Adults With COVID-19: A Living Systematic Review and Meta-analysis for the American College of Physicians Practice Points.

BACKGROUND: Remdesivir is approved for the treatment of adults hospitalized with COVID-19. PURPOSE: To update a living review of remdesivir for adults with COVID-19. DATA SOURCES: Several electronic U.S. Food and Drug Administration, company, and journal websites from 1 January 2020 through 19 October 2021. STUDY SELECTION: English-language, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of remdesivir for COVID-19. DATA EXTRACTION: One reviewer abstracted, and a second reviewer verified data. The Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool and GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) method were used. DATA SYNTHESIS: Since the last update (search date 9 August 2021), 1 new RCT and 1 new subtrial comparing a 10-day course of remdesivir with control (placebo or standard care) were identified. This review summarizes and updates the evidence on the cumulative 5 RCTs and 2 subtrials for this comparison. Our updated results confirm a 10-day course of remdesivir, compared with control, probably results in little to no mortality reduction (5 RCTs). Updated results also confirm that remdesivir probably results in a moderate increase in the proportion of patients recovered by day 29 (4 RCTs) and may reduce time to clinical improvement (2 RCTs) and hospital length of stay (4 RCTs). New RCTs, by increasing the strength of evidence, lead to an updated conclusion that remdesivir probably results in a small reduction in the proportion of patients receiving ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation at specific follow-up times (4 RCTs). New RCTs also alter the conclusions for harms-remdesivir, compared with control, may lead to a small reduction in serious adverse events but may lead to a small increase in any adverse event. LIMITATION: The RCTs differed in definitions of COVID-19 severity and outcomes reported. CONCLUSION: In hospitalized adults with COVID-19, the findings confirm that remdesivir probably results in little to no difference in mortality and increases the proportion of patients recovered. Remdesivir may reduce time to clinical improvement and may lead to small reductions in serious adverse events but may result in a small increase in any adverse event. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Vertebral Fractures: Which Radiological Criteria Are Better Associated With the Clinical Course of Osteoporosis?

STUDY PURPOSE: Morphometric methods categorize potential osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVF) on the basis of loss of vertebral height. A particular example is the widely used semiquantitative morphometric tool proposed by Genant (GSQ). A newer morphologic algorithm-based qualitative (mABQ) tool focuses on vertebral end-plate damage in recognizing OVF. We used data from both sexes in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) to compare the 2 methods in identifying OVF at baseline and during 10 years of follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained lateral thoracic and lumbar spinal radiographs (T4-L4) 3 times, at 5-year intervals, in 828 participants of the population-based CaMos. Logistic regressions were used to study the association of 10-year changes in bone mineral density (BMD) with incident fractures. RESULTS: At baseline, 161 participants had grade 1 and 32 had grade 2 GSQ OVF; over the next 10 years, only 9 of these participants had sustained incident GSQ OVF. Contrastingly, 21 participants at baseline had grade 1 and 48 grade 2 mABQ events; over the next 10 years, 79 subjects experienced incident grade 1 or grade 2 mABQ events. Thus, incident grades 1 and 2 morphologic fractures were 8 times more common than morphometric deformities alone. Each 10-year decrease of 0.01 g/cm2 in total hip BMD was associated with a 4.1% (95% CI: 0.7-7.3) higher odds of having an incident vertebral fracture. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis further suggests that morphometric deformities and morphologic fractures constitute distinct entities; morphologic fractures conform more closely to the expected epidemiology of OVF.

Individual and joint trajectories of change in bone, lean mass and physical performance in older men.

BACKGROUND: Declines in bone, muscle and physical performance are associated with adverse health outcomes in older adults. However, few studies have described concurrent age-related patterns of change in these factors. The purpose of this study was to characterize change in four properties of muscle, physical performance, and bone in a prospective cohort study of older men. METHODS: Using repeated longitudinal data from up to four visits across 6.9 years from up to 4681 men (mean age at baseline 72.7 yrs. ±5.3) participating in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study, we used group-based trajectory models (PROC TRAJ in SAS) to identify age-related patterns of change in four properties of muscle, physical performance, and bone: total hip bone mineral (BMD) density (g/m2) and appendicular lean mass/ht2 (kg/m2), by DXA; grip strength (kg), by hand dynamometry; and walking speed (m/s), by usual walking pace over 6 m. We also described joint trajectories in all pair-wise combinations of these measures. Mean posterior probabilities of placement in each trajectory (or joint membership in latent groups) were used to assess internal reliability of the model. The number of trajectories for each individual factor was limited to three, to ensure that the pair-wise determination of joint trajectories would yield a tractable number of groups as well as model fit considerations. RESULTS: The patterns of change identified were generally similar for all measures, with three district groups declining over time at roughly similar rates; joint trajectories revealed similar patterns with no cross-over or convergence between groups. Mean posterior probabilities for all trajectories were similar and consistently above 0.8 indicating reasonable model fit to the data. CONCLUSIONS: Our description of trajectories of change with age in bone mineral density, grip strength, walking speed and appendicular lean mass found that groups identified by these methods appeared to have little crossover or convergence of change with age, even when considering joint trajectories of change in these factors.

Serum phosphate and cognitive function in older men.

OBJECTIVE: Determine whether serum phosphate is associated with concurrent cognitive impairment and subsequent cognitive decline in older men independent of demographic covariates and atherosclerotic risk factors. METHODS: In a prospective study of 5529 men enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study, we measured baseline serum phosphate, baseline cognitive function, and change in cognitive function between baseline and follow-up exams an average of 4.6 years later using the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) Examination and Trails B. RESULTS: There was no association between serum phosphate and odds of cognitive impairment as assessed by baseline 3MS score or risk of cognitive decline as assessed by longitudinal change in 3MS score. Higher baseline serum phosphate was associated with higher odds of poor executive function as assessed by Trails B with fully adjusted odds ratios 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-1.52), 1.31 (0.97-1.77), and 1.45 (1.08-1.94) for men in the second, third, and fourth versus the bottom quartile (referent group) of serum phosphate (p-trend 0.007). However, higher phosphate level was not associated with risk of decline in executive function as assessed by longitudinal change in Trails B score with fully adjusted odds ratios 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.69-1.28), 0.96 (0.70-1.32), and 1.21 (0.89-1.66) for men in the second, third, and fourth versus the bottom quartile (referent group) of serum phosphate (p-trend 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum phosphate in older men was associated with a higher likelihood of poor executive function, but not with impaired global cognitive function or decline in executive or global cognition. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Screening for Osteoporosis in Older Men: Operating Characteristics of Proposed Strategies for Selecting Men for BMD Testing.

BACKGROUND: The optimal approach for selecting men for bone mineral density (BMD) testing to screen for osteoporosis is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare strategies for selecting older men for screening BMD testing. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4043 community-dwelling men aged ≥70 years at four US sites. MAIN MEASURES: BMD at the total hip, femoral neck, and lumbar spine using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST) and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without BMD to discriminate between those with and without osteoporosis as defined by World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria, and between those recommended and not recommended for pharmacologic therapy based on the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) guidelines. KEY RESULTS: Among the cohort, 216 (5.3%) had a BMD T-score ≤ -2.5 at the femoral neck, total hip, or lumbar spine, and 1184 (29.2%) met criteria for consideration of pharmacologic therapy according to NOF guidelines. The OST had better discrimination (AUC 0.68) than the FRAX (AUC 0.62; p = 0.004) for identifying T-score-defined osteoporosis. Use of an OST threshold of <2 resulted in sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.36 for the identification of osteoporosis, compared to sensitivity of 0.59 and specificity of 0.59 for the use of FRAX with a cutoff of 9.3% 10-year risk of major osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS: The OST performs modestly better than the more complex FRAX in selecting older men for BMD testing to screen for osteoporosis; the use of either tool substantially reduces the proportion of men referred for BMD testing compared to universal screening. Of 1000 men aged 70 and older in this community-based cohort, the use of an OST cutoff of <2 to select men for BMD testing would result in 654 men referred for BMD testing, of whom 44 would be identified as having osteoporosis, and nine with osteoporosis would be missed.

Fracture Risk Prediction Modeling and Statistics: What Should Clinical Researchers, Journal Reviewers, and Clinicians Know?

Fractures are binary events (they either occur or they do not), and predicting whether fractures may occur involves assigning probabilities of one or more of those events occurring over time to populations and to individuals. Fracture risk prediction has become central to the management of osteoporosis and fracture prevention in clinical practice, and the ultimate clinical usefulness of the prediction tools used to estimate these risks depends, at a minimum, on the validity and accuracy of those tools. In this paper, we will describe how fracture prediction models are developed and validated, and how their performance characteristics are assessed. We will provide a checklist by which clinicians, clinical researchers, and reviewers of journal submissions can judge whether a fracture prediction tool meets basic requirements of good performance. We will further describe how the incremental predictive value of additional diagnostic tools, such as bone mass measurement technologies, is assessed.

Comparison of Associations of DXA and CT Visceral Adipose Tissue Measures With Insulin Resistance, Lipid Levels, and Inflammatory Markers.

Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) measured by computed tomography (CT) is related to insulin resistance, lipids, and serum inflammatory markers. Our objective was to compare the strength of the associations of VAT measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-VAT) and CT (CT-VAT) with insulin resistance, serum lipids, and serum markers of inflammation. For 1117 men aged 65 and older enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, the cross-sectional associations of DXA-VAT and CT-VAT with homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (homa2ir), C-reactive protein, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were estimated with regression models and compared using a Hausman test. Adjusted for age and body mass index, DXA-VAT was moderately associated with homa2ir (effect size 0.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28-0.47) and modestly associated with HDL cholesterol (DXA effect size -0.29, 95% CI: -0.38 to -0.21). These associations were significantly greater than those for CT-VAT with homa2ir (0.30, 95% CI: 0.24-0.37; p value for effect size difference 0.03) and CT-VAT with HDL cholesterol (-0.22, 95% CI: -0.29 to -0.15; p value for difference 0.005). Neither DXA-VAT nor CT-VAT was associated with C-reactive protein after adjustment for age and body mass index (DXA-VAT effect size 0.14, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.32; CT-VAT effect size 0.08, 95% CI: -0.08 to 0.25; p value for difference 0.35). DXA-VAT has similar or greater associations with insulin resistance and HDL cholesterol as does CT-VAT in older men, confirming the concurrent validity of DXA-VAT. Investigations of how well DXA measurements of VAT predict incident cardiovascular disease events are warranted.

Densitometer-Specific Differences in the Correlation Between Body Mass Index and Lumbar Spine Trabecular Bone Score.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level texture measure derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images that predicts fractures independent of bone mineral density (BMD). Increased abdominal soft tissue in individuals with elevated body mass index (BMI) absorbs more X-rays during image acquisition for BMD measurement and must be accommodated by the TBS algorithm. We aimed to determine if the relationship between BMI and TBS varied between 2 major manufacturers' densitometers, because different densitometers accommodate soft tissues differently. We identified 1919 women and 811 men, participants of the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study, aged ≥40 yr with lumbar spine DXA scans acquired on GE Lunar (4 centers) or Hologic (3 centers) densitometers at year 10 of follow-up. TBS was calculated for L1-L4 (TBS iNsight® software, version 2.1). A significant negative correlation between TBS and BMI was observed when TBS measurements were performed on Hologic densitometers in men (Pearson r = -0.36, p <0.0001) and in women (Pearson r = -0.33, p <0.0001); significant correlations were not seen when TBS was measured on GE Lunar densitometers (Pearson r = 0.00 in men, Pearson r = -0.02 in women). Age-adjusted linear regression models confirmed significant interactions between BMI and densitometer manufacturer for both men and women (p < 0.0001). In contrast, comparable positive correlations were observed between BMD and BMI on both Hologic and GE Lunar densitometers in men and women. In conclusion, BMI significantly affects TBS values in men and women when measured on Hologic but not GE Lunar densitometers. This finding has implications for clinical and research applications of TBS, especially when TBS is measured sequentially on DXA densitometers from different manufacturers or when results from different machines are pooled for analysis.

The causal effect of vitamin D binding protein (DBP) levels on calcemic and cardiometabolic diseases: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have shown that vitamin D binding protein (DBP) levels, a key determinant of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25OHD) levels, and 25OHD levels themselves both associate with risk of disease. If 25OHD levels have a causal influence on disease, and DBP lies in this causal pathway, then DBP levels should likewise be causally associated with disease. We undertook a Mendelian randomization study to determine whether DBP levels have causal effects on common calcemic and cardiometabolic disease. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We measured DBP and 25OHD levels in 2,254 individuals, followed for up to 10 y, in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos). Using the single nucleotide polymorphism rs2282679 as an instrumental variable, we applied Mendelian randomization methods to determine the causal effect of DBP on calcemic (osteoporosis and hyperparathyroidism) and cardiometabolic diseases (hypertension, type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, and stroke) and related traits, first in CaMos and then in large-scale genome-wide association study consortia. The effect allele was associated with an age- and sex-adjusted decrease in DBP level of 27.4 mg/l (95% CI 24.7, 30.0; n = 2,254). DBP had a strong observational and causal association with 25OHD levels (p = 3.2 × 10(-19)). While DBP levels were observationally associated with calcium and body mass index (BMI), these associations were not supported by causal analyses. Despite well-powered sample sizes from consortia, there were no associations of rs2282679 with any other traits and diseases: fasting glucose (0.00 mmol/l [95% CI -0.01, 0.01]; p = 1.00; n = 46,186); fasting insulin (0.01 pmol/l [95% CI -0.00, 0.01,]; p = 0.22; n = 46,186); BMI (0.00 kg/m(2) [95% CI -0.01, 0.01]; p = 0.80; n = 127,587); bone mineral density (0.01 g/cm(2) [95% CI -0.01, 0.03]; p = 0.36; n = 32,961); mean arterial pressure (-0.06 mm Hg [95% CI -0.19, 0.07]); p = 0.36; n = 28,775); ischemic stroke (odds ratio [OR]  = 1.00 [95% CI 0.97, 1.04]; p = 0.92; n = 12,389/62,004 cases/controls); coronary artery disease (OR = 1.02 [95% CI 0.99, 1.05]; p = 0.31; n = 22,233/64,762); or type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.01 [95% CI 0.97, 1.05]; p = 0.76; n = 9,580/53,810). CONCLUSIONS: DBP has no demonstrable causal effect on any of the diseases or traits investigated here, except 25OHD levels. It remains to be determined whether 25OHD has a causal effect on these outcomes independent of DBP. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Choice of lumbar spine bone density reference database for fracture prediction in men and women: a population-based analysis.

The diagnosis of osteoporosis in men is controversial, although most studies demonstrate similar fracture rates for men and women with the same level of hip bone mineral density (BMD). Whether this applies to the lumbar spine is currently uncertain and has important implications with respect to choice of reference population for T-score calculation and osteoporosis diagnosis. This question was specifically addressed in the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study cohort of 4745 women and 1887 men ages 50+ yr at the time of baseline lumbar spine dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. In up to 10 yr of observation, incident clinical major osteoporotic fractures occurred in 110 men (5.8%) vs 543 women (11.4%) (p < 0.001). Mean lumbar spine BMD in men was greater than in women, both among those with and those without incident major osteoporotic fracture (p < 0.001). Men were at slightly lower risk for incident major osteoporotic fracture than women for an equivalent lumbar spine BMD (age- and BMD-adjusted rate ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.93, p = 0.008) with similar findings after adjustment for the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment clinical risk factors or competing mortality. No significant sex difference in the BMD relationship was seen for vertebral fractures (clinical or radiographic) or for all fractures. In summary, this large population-based longitudinal cohort study found similar or lower fracture risk for men vs women after adjustment for absolute lumbar spine BMD and additional covariates. The least complicated model for describing fracture risk is therefore to use the same reference lumbar spine data for generating T-scores in men and women.

Balancing fracture risk versus risk of mortality before fracture among women aged 80 years or older.

BACKGROUND: Most fractures occur in women aged ≥80 years but competing mortality unrelated to fracture may limit the benefit of osteoporosis drug therapy for some women in late life. Our primary aim was to develop separate prediction models for non-spine fracture (NSF) and mortality before fracture to identify subsets of women with varying fracture versus mortality risks. METHODS: Separate prediction models were developed for NSF and mortality before NSF for 4895 women aged ≥80 years enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) or the Health Aging and Body Composition (HABC) study. Proportional hazards models modified to account for competing mortality were used to identify candidate risk factors for each outcome. Predictors associated with NSF or mortality (p < 0.2) were included in separate competing risk models to estimate the cumulative incidence of NSF and mortality before NSF during 5 years of follow-up. This process was repeated to develop separate prediction models for hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. RESULTS: Significant predictors of NSF (race, total hip BMD, grip strength, prior fracture, falls, and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, benzodiazepines, or oral/transdermal estrogen) differed from predictors of mortality before NSF (age, walking speed, multimorbidity, weight change, shrinking, smoking, self-rated health, dementia, and use of warfarin). Within nine subsets of women defined by tertiles of risk, 5-year outcomes varied from 28% NSF and 8% mortality in the high-risk NSF/low-risk mortality subset, to 9% NSF and 22% mortality in the low-risk NSF/high-risk mortality subset. Similar results were seen for predictors of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. CONCLUSION: Considerable variation in 5-year competing mortality risk is present among women in late life with similar 5-year NSF risk. Both fracture risk and life expectancy should inform shared clinical decision-making regarding initiation or continuation of osteoporosis drug therapy for women aged ≥80 years.

Associations Between Walking Speed and Gut Microbiome Composition in Older Men From the MrOS Study.

BACKGROUND: Gut dysbiosis has been linked to frailty, but its association with early mobility decline is unclear. METHODS: First, we determined the cross-sectional associations between walking speed and the gut microbiome in 740 older men (84 ±â€…4 years) from the MrOS cohort with available stool samples and 400 m walking speed measured in 2014-2016. Then, we analyzed the retrospective longitudinal associations between changes in 6 m walking speed (from 2005-2006 to 2014-2016, calculated by simple linear equation) and gut microbiome composition among participants with available data (702/740). We determined gut microbiome composition by 16S sequencing and examined diversity, taxa abundance, and performed network analysis to identify differences in the gut microbiome network of fast versus slow walkers. RESULTS: Faster 400 m walking speed (m/s) was associated with greater microbiome α-diversity (R = 0.11; p = .004). The association between a slower decline in 6 m walking speed and higher α-diversity (R = 0.07; p = .054) approached borderline significance. Faster walking speed and less decline in walking speed were associated with a higher abundance of genus-level bacteria that produce short-chain fatty acids, and possess anti-inflammatory properties, including Paraprevotella, Fusicatenibacter, and Alistipes, after adjusting for potential covariates (p < .05). The gut microbiome networks of participants in the first versus last quartile of walking speed (≤0.9 vs ≥1.2 m/s) exhibited distinct characteristics, including different centrality measures (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a possible relationship between gut microbiome diversity and mobility function, as indicated by the associations between faster walking speed and less decline in walking speed over 10 years with higher gut microbiome diversity in older men.