Protein intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus: an umbrella review of systematic reviews for the evidence-based guideline for protein intake of the German Nutrition Society.

PURPOSE: Protein-rich foods show heterogeneous associations with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and it remains unclear whether habitual protein intake is related to T2D risk. We carried out an umbrella review of systematic reviews (SR) of randomised trials and/or cohort studies on protein intake in relation to risks of T2D. METHODS: Following a pre-specified protocol (PROSPERO: CRD42018082395), we retrieved SRs on protein intake and T2D risk published between July 1st 2009 and May 22nd 2022, and assessed the methodological quality and outcome-specific certainty of the evidence using a modified version of AMSTAR 2 and NutriGrade, respectively. The overall certainty of evidence was rated according to predefined criteria. RESULTS: Eight SRs were identified of which six contained meta-analyses. The majority of SRs on total protein intake had moderate or high methodological quality and moderate outcome-specific certainty of evidence according to NutriGrade, however, the latter was low for the majority of SRs on animal and plant protein. Six of the eight SRs reported risk increases with both total and animal protein. According to one SR, total protein intake in studies was ~ 21 energy percentage (%E) in the highest intake category and 15%E in the lowest intake category. Relative Risks comparing high versus low intake in most recent SRs ranged from 1.09 (two SRs, 95% CIs 1.02-1.15 and 1.06-1.13) to 1.11 (1.05-1.16) for total protein (between 8 and 12 cohort studies included) and from 1.13 (1.08-1.19) to 1.19 (two SRs, 1.11-1.28 and 1.11-1.28) (8-9 cohort studies) for animal protein. However, SRs on RCTs examining major glycaemic traits (HbA1c, fasting glucose, fasting insulin) do not support a clear biological link with T2D risk. For plant protein, some recent SRs pointed towards risk decreases and non-linear associations, however, the majority did not support an association with T2D risk. CONCLUSION: Higher total protein intake was possibly associated with higher T2D risk, while there is insufficient evidence for a risk increase with higher intakes of animal protein and a risk decrease with plant protein intake. Given that most SRs on plant protein did not indicate an association, there is possibly a lack of an effect.

Protein intake and body weight, fat mass and waist circumference: an umbrella review of systematic reviews for the evidence-based guideline on protein intake of the German Nutrition Society.

PURPOSE: This umbrella review aimed to assess whether dietary protein intake with regard to quantitative (higher vs. lower dietary protein intake) and qualitative considerations (total, plant-based or animal-based protein intake) affects body weight (BW), fat mass (FM) and waist circumference (WC). METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for systematic reviews (SRs) with and without meta-analyses of prospective studies published between 04 October 2007 and 04 January 2022. Methodological quality and outcome-specific certainty of evidence of the retrieved SRs were assessed by using AMSTAR 2 and NutriGrade, respectively, in order to rate the overall certainty of evidence using predefined criteria. RESULTS: Thirty-three SRs were included in this umbrella review; 29 were based on randomised controlled trials, a few included cohort studies. In studies without energy restriction, a high-protein diet did not modulate BW, FM and WC in adults in general (all "possible" evidence); for older adults, overall certainty of evidence was "insufficient" for all parameters. Under hypoenergetic diets, a high-protein diet mostly decreased BW and FM, but evidence was "insufficient" due to low methodological quality. Evidence regarding an influence of the protein type on BW, FM and WC was "insufficient". CONCLUSION: "Possible" evidence exists that the amount of protein does not affect BW, FM and WC in adults under isoenergetic conditions. Its impact on the reduction in BW and FM under hypoenergetic conditions remains unclear; evidence for an influence of protein type on BW, FM and WC is "insufficient".

Protein intake and cancer: an umbrella review of systematic reviews for the evidence-based guideline of the German Nutrition Society.

PURPOSE: It has been proposed that a higher habitual protein intake may increase cancer risk, possibly via upregulated insulin-like growth factor signalling. Since a systematic evaluation of human studies on protein intake and cancer risk based on a standardised assessment of systematic reviews (SRs) is lacking, we carried out an umbrella review of SRs on protein intake in relation to risks of different types of cancer. METHODS: Following a pre-specified protocol (PROSPERO: CRD42018082395), we retrieved SRs on protein intake and cancer risk published before January 22th 2024, and assessed the methodological quality and outcome-specific certainty of the evidence using a modified version of AMSTAR 2 and NutriGrade, respectively. The overall certainty of evidence was rated according to predefined criteria. RESULTS: Ten SRs were identified, of which eight included meta-analyses. Higher total protein intake was not associated with risks of breast, prostate, colorectal, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer incidence. The methodological quality of the included SRs ranged from critically low (kidney cancer), low (pancreatic, ovarian and prostate cancer) and moderate (breast and prostate cancer) to high (colorectal cancer). The outcome-specific certainty of the evidence underlying the reported findings on protein intake and cancer risk ranged from very low (pancreatic, ovarian and prostate cancer) to low (colorectal, ovarian, prostate, and breast cancer). Animal and plant protein intakes were not associated with cancer risks either at a low (breast and prostate cancer) or very low (pancreatic and prostate cancer) outcome-specific certainty of the evidence. Overall, the evidence for the lack of an association between protein intake and (i) colorectal cancer risk and (ii) breast cancer risk was rated as possible. By contrast, the evidence underlying the other reported results was rated as insufficient. CONCLUSION: The present findings suggest that higher total protein intake may not be associated with the risk of colorectal and breast cancer, while conclusions on protein intake in relation to risks of other types of cancer are restricted due to insufficient evidence.

Early arrival of spring-spawning Atlantic herring Clupea harengus at their spawning ground in the Kiel Fjord, western Baltic, relates to increasing winter seawater temperature.

The disturbance of marine organism phenology due to climate change and the subsequent effects on recruitment success are still poorly understood, especially in migratory fish species, such as the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus; Clupeidae). Here we used the commercial catch data from a local fisher over a 50-year period (1971-2020) to estimate western Baltic spring-spawning (WBSS) herring mean arrival time Q50 (i.e., the week when 50% of the total fish catches had been made) at their spawning ground within the Kiel Fjord, southwest Baltic Sea, and the duration of the spawning season for each year. The relationship between the seawater temperature in the Kiel Bight and other environmental parameters (such as water salinity, North Atlantic and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations) and Q50 was evaluated using a general linear model to test the hypothesis that fish arrived earlier after warm than cold winters. We also estimated the accumulated thermal time to Q50 during gonadal development to estimate the effects of seawater temperature on the variations of Q50. The results of this study revealed a dramatic decrease in herring catches within the Kiel Fjord since the mid-1990s, as documented for the whole southwestern Baltic Sea. Warmer winter seawater temperature was the only factor related to an earlier arrival (1 week for one January seawater temperature degree increase) of herring at their spawning ground. The relationship was found for the first time on week 52 of the year prior to spawning and was the strongest (50% of the variability explained) from the fourth week of January (8 weeks before the mean Q50 among the studied years). A thermal constant to Q50 (~316°C day) was found when temperatures were integrated from the 49th week of the year prior to spawning. These results indicate that seawater temperature enhanced the speed of gonadal maturation during the latest phases of gametogenesis, leading to an early fish arrival under warm conditions. The duration of the spawning season was elongated during warmer years, therefore potentially mitigating the effects of trophic mismatch when fish spawn early. The results of this study highlight the altering effects of climate change on the spawning activity of a migratory fish species in the Baltic Sea where fast global changes presage that in other coastal areas worldwide.

Protein intake and bone health: an umbrella review of systematic reviews for the evidence-based guideline of the German Nutrition Society.

This umbrella review aimed at assessing whether a protein intake exceeding the current recommendation for younger (0.8 g/kg body weight [BW]/day) and older (1.0 g/kg BW/day) adults affects bone mineral density and fracture risk. Moreover, the effect of animal or plant protein was evaluated. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for systematic reviews (SRs) with or without meta-analysis of prospective studies published between 11/2008 and 08/2021. Methodological quality, outcome-specific certainty of evidence, and overall certainty of evidence of the retrieved SRs were assessed using established tools and predefined criteria. Eleven SRs of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and/or cohort studies were included. In SRs of cohort studies and RCTs, protein intake/kg BW/day ranged between 0.21-0.95 g (low intake) and > 1.24 g (high intake), respectively, and between 0.67-1.1 g (control groups) and 1.01-1.69 g (intervention groups), respectively. The vast majority of outcome-specific certainty of evidence was rated "low" or "very low." The overall certainty of evidence for an association (cohort studies) or effect (RCTs) of total, animal or plant protein intake on each of the investigated outcomes was rated "insufficient," with the exception of possible evidence for a reduced hip fracture risk by high vs. low protein intake. Since protein intakes in low/control and high/intervention groups were very heterogeneous and with low certainty of evidence, it remains unclear whether a dose above the current recommendation or type of protein intake (animal or plant protein) affects bone health overall. However, there is possible evidence for reduced hip fracture risk with high versus low protein intake.

Protein intake and risk of urolithiasis and kidney diseases: an umbrella review of systematic reviews for the evidence-based guideline of the German Nutrition Society.

PURPOSE: Changes in dietary protein intake metabolically affect kidney functions. However, knowledge on potential adverse consequences of long-term higher protein intake (HPI) for kidney health is lacking. To summarise and evaluate the available evidence for a relation between HPI and kidney diseases, an umbrella review of systematic reviews (SR) was conducted. METHODS: PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Database of SRs published until 12/2022 were searched for the respective SRs with and without meta-analyses (MA) of randomised controlled trials or cohort studies. For assessments of methodological quality and of outcome-specific certainty of evidence, a modified version of AMSTAR 2 and the NutriGrade scoring tool were used, respectively. The overall certainty of evidence was assessed according to predefined criteria. RESULTS: Six SRs with MA and three SRs without MA on various kidney-related outcomes were identified. Outcomes were chronic kidney disease, kidney stones and kidney function-related parameters: albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, serum urea, urinary pH and urinary calcium excretion. Overall certainty of evidence was graded as 'possible' for stone risk not to be associated with HPI and albuminuria not to be elevated through HPI (above recommendations (> 0.8 g/kg body weight/day)) and graded as 'probable' or 'possible' for most other kidney function-related parameters to be physiologically increased with HPI. CONCLUSION: Changes of the assessed outcomes may have reflected mostly physiological (regulatory), but not pathometabolic responses to higher protein loads. For none of the outcomes, evidence was found that HPI does specifically trigger kidney stones or diseases. However, for potential recommendations long-term data, also over decades, are required.

Dietary protein intake and health-related outcomes: a methodological protocol for the evidence evaluation and the outline of an evidence to decision framework underlying the evidence-based guideline of the German Nutrition Society.

PURPOSE: The present work aimed to delineate (i) a revised protocol according to recent methodological developments in evidence generation, to (ii) describe its interpretation, the assessment of the overall certainty of evidence and to (iii) outline an Evidence to Decision framework for deriving an evidence-based guideline on quantitative and qualitative aspects of dietary protein intake. METHODS: A methodological protocol to systematically investigate the association between dietary protein intake and several health outcomes and for deriving dietary protein intake recommendations for the primary prevention of various non-communicable diseases in the general adult population was developed. RESULTS: The developed methodological protocol relies on umbrella reviews including systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses. Systematic literature searches in three databases will be performed for each health-related outcome. The methodological quality of all selected systematic reviews will be evaluated using a modified version of AMSTAR 2, and the outcome-specific certainty of evidence for systematic reviews with or without meta-analysis will be assessed with NutriGrade. The general outline of the Evidence to Decision framework foresees that recommendations in the derived guideline will be given based on the overall certainty of evidence as well as on additional criteria such as sustainability. CONCLUSION: The methodological protocol permits a systematic evaluation of published systematic reviews on dietary protein intake and its association with selected health-related outcomes. An Evidence to Decision framework will be the basis for the overall conclusions and the resulting recommendations for dietary protein intake.

Wash-Free Multiplexed Mix-and-Read Suspension Array Fluorescence Immunoassay for Anthropogenic Markers in Wastewater.

Pharmaceuticals, certain food ingredients, and mammalian endogenous metabolic products in wastewater are mostly of human origin. They are anthropogenic markers. Proper knowledge of their levels in wastewater helps to track sources of pollutants in natural waters and allows for calculation of removal efficiencies in wastewater treatment plants. Here, we describe the development and application of an indirect competitive, multiplexing suspension array fluorescence immunoassay (SAFIA) for the detection of carbamazepine (CBZ), diclofenac (DCF), caffeine (CAF), and isolithocholic acid (ILA) in wastewater, covering those classes of anthropogenic markers. The assay consists of haptens covalently conjugated to fluorescence-encoded polystyrene core/silica shell microparticles to create a site for competitive binding of the antibodies (Abs). Bound Abs are then stained with fluorophore-labeled Abs. Encoding and signaling fluorescence of the particles are determined by an automated flow cytometer. For compatibility of the immunoassay with the 96-well microtiter plate format, a stop reagent, containing formaldehyde, is used. This enables a wash-free procedure while decreasing time-to-result. Detection limits of 140 ± 40 ng/L for CBZ, 180 ± 110 ng/L for CAF, 4 ± 3 ng/L for DCF, and 310 ± 70 ng/L for ILA are achieved, which meet the sensitivity criteria of wastewater analysis. We demonstrate the applicability of SAFIA to real wastewater samples from three different wastewater treatment plants, finding the results in good agreement with LC-MS/MS. Moreover, the accuracy in general exceeded that from classical ELISAs. We therefore propose SAFIA as a quick and reliable approach for wastewater analysis meeting the requirements for process analytical technology.

BarrettNET-a prospective registry for risk estimation of patients with Barrett's esophagus to progress to adenocarcinoma.

Risk stratification in patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) to prevent the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is an unsolved task. The incidence of EAC and BE is increasing and patients are still at unknown risk. BarrettNET is an ongoing multicenter prospective cohort study initiated to identify and validate molecular and clinical biomarkers that allow a more personalized surveillance strategy for patients with BE. For BarrettNET participants are recruited in 20 study centers throughout Germany, to be followed for progression to dysplasia (low-grade dysplasia or high-grade dysplasia) or EAC for >10 years. The study instruments comprise self-administered epidemiological information (containing data on demographics, lifestyle factors, and health), as well as biological specimens, i.e., blood-based samples, esophageal tissue biopsies, and feces and saliva samples. In follow-up visits according to the individual surveillance plan of the participants, sample collection is repeated. The standardized collection and processing of the specimen guarantee the highest sample quality. Via a mobile accessible database, the documentation of inclusion, epidemiological data, and pathological disease status are recorded subsequently. Currently the BarrettNET registry includes 560 participants (23.1% women and 76.9% men, aged 22-92 years) with a median follow-up of 951 days. Both the design and the size of BarrettNET offer the advantage of answering research questions regarding potential causes of disease progression from BE to EAC. Here all the integrated methods and materials of BarrettNET are presented and reviewed to introduce this valuable German registry.

Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification.

Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Meeting Report: Growth and Social Environment. Proceedings of the 25th Aschauer Soiree, held at Krobielowice, Poland, November 18th 2017.

Twenty-two scientists met at Krobielowice, Poland, to discuss the impact of the social environment, spatial proximity, migration, poverty, but also psychological factors such as body perception and satisfaction, and social stressors such as elite sports, and teenage pregnancies, on child and adolescent growth. The data analysis included linear mixed effects models with different random effects, Monte Carlo analyses, and network simulations. The work stressed the importance of the peer group, but also included historic material, some considerations about body proportions, and growth in chronic liver, and congenital heart disease.

A Prodomain Fragment from the Proteolytic Activation of Growth Differentiation Factor 11 Remains Associated with the Mature Growth Factor and Keeps It Soluble.

Growth differentiation factor 11 (GDF11), a member of the transforming growth factor ß (TGF-ß) family, plays diverse roles in mammalian development. It is synthesized as a large, inactive precursor protein containing a prodomain, pro-GDF11, and exists as a homodimer. Activation requires two proteolytic processing steps that release the prodomains and transform latent pro-GDF11 into active mature GDF11. In studying proteolytic activation in vitro, we discovered that a 6-kDa prodomain peptide containing residues 60-114, PDP60-114, remained associated with the mature growth factor. Whereas the full-length prodomain of GDF11 is a functional antagonist, PDP60-114 had no impact on activity. The specific activity of the GDF11/PDP60-114 complex (EC50 = 1 nM) in a SMAD2/3 reporter assay was identical to that of mature GDF11 alone. PDP60-114 improved the solubility of mature GDF11 at neutral pH. As the growth factor normally aggregates/precipitates at neutral pH, PDP60-114 can be used as a solubility-enhancing formulation. Expression of two engineered constructs with PDP60-114 genetically fused to the mature domain of GDF11 through a 2x or 3x G4S linker produced soluble monomeric products that could be dimerized through redox reactions. The construct with a 3x G4S linker retained 10% activity (EC50 = 10 nM), whereas the construct connected with a 2x G4S linker could only be activated (EC50 = 2 nM) by protease treatment. Complex formation with PDP60-114 represents a new strategy for stabilizing GDF11 in an active state that may translate to other members of the TGF-ß family that form latent pro/mature domain complexes.

Temporal trends, regional variation and socio-economic differences in height, BMI and body proportions among German conscripts, 1956-2010.

OBJECTIVE: We analyse temporal trends and regional variation among the most recent available anthropometric data from German conscription in the years 2008-2010 and their historical contextualization since 1956. Design/setting/subjects The overall sample included German conscripts (N 13 857 313) from 1956 to 2010. RESULTS: German conscripts changed from growing in height to growing in breadth. Over the analysed 54 years, average height of 19-year-old conscripts increased by 6·5 cm from 173·5 cm in 1956 (birth year 1937) to 180·0 cm in 2010 (birth year 1991). This increase plateaued since the 1990s (1970s birth years). The increase in average weight, however, did not lessen during the last two decades but increased in two steps: at the end of the 1980s and after 1999. The weight and BMI distributions became increasingly right-skewed, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 11·6 % and 2·1 % in 1984 to 19·9 % and 8·5 % in 2010, respectively. The north-south gradient in height (north = taller) persisted during our observations. Height and weight of conscripts from East Germany matched the German average between the early 1990s and 2009. Between the 1980s and the early 1990s, the average chest circumference increased, the average difference between chest circumference when inhaling and exhaling decreased, as did leg length relative to trunk length. CONCLUSIONS: Measuring anthropometric data for military conscripts yielded year-by-year monitoring of the health status of young men at a proscribed age. Such findings contribute to a more precise identification of groups at risk and thus help with further studies and to target interventions.

PyIgClassify: a database of antibody CDR structural classifications.

Classification of the structures of the complementarity determining regions (CDRs) of antibodies is critically important for antibody structure prediction and computational design. We have previously performed a clustering of antibody CDR conformations and defined a systematic nomenclature consisting of the CDR, length and an integer starting from the largest to the smallest cluster in the data set (e.g. L1-11-1). We present PyIgClassify (for Python-based immunoglobulin classification; available at http://dunbrack2.fccc.edu/pyigclassify/), a database and web server that provides access to assignments of all CDR structures in the PDB to our classification system. The database includes assignments to the IMGT germline V regions for heavy and light chains for several species. For humanized antibodies, the assignment of the frameworks is to human germlines and the CDRs to the germlines of mice or other species sources. The database can be searched by PDB entry, cluster identifier and IMGT germline group (e.g. human IGHV1). The entire database is downloadable so that users may filter the data as needed for antibody structure analysis, prediction and design.

What does the mean menarcheal age mean?-An analysis of temporal pattern in variability in a historical swiss population from the 19th and 20th centuries.

OBJECTIVES: Age at menarche is one of the most important factors when observing growth and development. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal pattern in variability of menarcheal age for a historic Swiss population from the 19th and 20th centuries. METHODS: Medical health records from the Bernese women's hospital (Switzerland) were analyzed. From 10,081 women of a historical Swiss population (born from 1815 to 1954), menarcheal age was calculated. A possible decline in average menarcheal age and variance and skewness were analyzed with the use of descriptive statistics, generalized additive models, and correlation. RESULTS: Mean menarcheal age declined from 17.34 years (n = 358) around 1830 to 13.80 years (n = 141) around 1950. Within-cohort variance decreased from 7.5 to 2.1 year(2) . Skewness was negatively correlated with birth year (r = -0.58). CONCLUSION: This study provided evidence for a secular trend in various statistical parameters for age at menarche since the 19th century. Furthermore, the results of the analysis of temporal pattern in variability revealed that the secular trend in menarcheal age happened in two phases. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:705-713, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the anthropogenic marker isolithocholic acid in water.

Bile acids are promising chemical markers to assess the pollution of water samples with fecal material. This study describes the optimization and validation of a direct competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the bile acid isolithocholic acid (ILA). The quantification range of the optimized assay was between 0.09 and 15 µg/L. The assay was applied to environmental water samples. Most studies until now were focused on bile acid fractions in the particulate phase of water samples. In order to avoid tedious sample preparation, we undertook to evaluate the dynamics and significance of ILA levels in the aqueous phase. Very low concentrations in tap and surface water samples made a pre-concentration step necessary for this matrix as well as for wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. Mean recoveries for spiked water samples were between 97% and 109% for tap water and WWTP influent samples and between 102% and 136% for WWTP effluent samples. 90th percentiles of intra-plate and inter-plate coefficients of variation were below 10% for influents and below 20% for effluents and surface water. ILA concentrations were quantified in the range of 33-72 µg/L in influent, 21-49 ng/L in effluent and 18-48 ng/L in surface water samples. During wastewater treatment the ILA levels were reduced by more than 99%. ILA concentrations of influents determined by ELISA and LC-MS/MS were in good agreement. However, findings in LC-ELISA experiments suggest that the true ILA levels in concentrated samples are lower due to interfering effects of matrix compounds and/or cross-reactants. Yet, the ELISA will be a valuable tool for the performance check and comparison of WWTPs and the localization of fecal matter input into surface waters.

Stunted Growth. Proceedings of the 23rd Aschauer Soiree, Held at Aschauhof, Germany, November 7th 2015.

Twenty-four scientists met at Aschauhof, Altenhof, Germany, to discuss the associations between child growth and development, and nutrition, health, environment and psychology. Meta-analyses of body height, height variability and household inequality, in historic and modern growth studies published since 1794, highlighting the enormously flexible patterns of child and adolescent height and weight increments throughout history which do not only depend on genetics, prenatal development, nutrition, health, and economic circumstances, but reflect social interactions. A Quality of Life in Short Stature Youth Questionnaire was presented to cross-culturally assess health-related quality of life in children. Changes of child body proportions in recent history, the relation between height and longevity in historic Dutch samples and also measures of body height in skeletal remains belonged to the topics of this meeting. Bayesian approaches and Monte Carlo simulations offer new statistical tools for the study of human growth.

The potential of current- and wind-driven transport for environmental management of the Baltic Sea.

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.

Analyzing Parametric Influences Driving Age-Associated Changes in Absorption using a PBPK-GSA Approach.

The advanced age population may be susceptible to an increased risk of adverse effects due to increased drug exposure after oral dosing. Factors such as high-interindividual variability and lack of data has led to poor characterization of absorption's role in pharmacokinetic changes in this population. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are increasingly being used during the drug development process, as their unique qualities are advantageous in atypical scenarios such as drug-drug interactions or special populations such as older people. Along with relying on various sources of data, auxiliary tools including parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis techniques are employed to support model development and other applications. However, sensitivity analyses have mostly been limited to localized techniques in the majority of reported PBPK models using them. This is disadvantageous, since local sensitivity analyses are unsuitable for risk analysis, which require assessment of parametric interactions and proper coverage of the input space to better estimate and subsequently mitigate the effects of the phenomenon of interest. For this reason, this study seeks to integrate a global sensitivity analysis screening method with PBPK models based in PK-Sim® to characterize the consequences of potential changes in absorption that are often associated with advanced age. The Elementary Effects (Morris) method and visualization of the results are implemented in R and three model drugs representing Biopharmaceutical Classification System classes I-III that are expected to exhibit some sensitivity to three age-associated hypotheses were successfully tested.

Climate challenges for fish larvae: Interactive multi-stressor effects impair acclimation potential of Atlantic herring larvae.

Fish early life stages are particularly vulnerable and heavily affected by changing environmental factors. The interactive effects of multiple climate change-related stressors on fish larvae remain, however, largely underexplored. As rising temperatures can increase the abundance and virulence of bacteria, we investigated the combination of a spring heat wave and bacterial exposure on the development of Atlantic herring larvae (Clupea harengus). Eggs and larvae of Western Baltic Spring-spawners were reared at a normal and high temperature ramp and exposed to Vibrio alginolyticus and V. anguillarum, respectively. Subsequently, mRNA and miRNA transcriptomes, microbiota composition, growth, and survival were assessed. Both high temperature and V. alginolyticus exposure induced a major downregulation of gene expression likely impeding larval cell proliferation. In contrast, interactive effects of elevated temperature and V. alginolyticus resulted in minimal gene expression changes, indicating an impaired plastic response, which may cause cellular damage reducing survival in later larval stages. The heat wave alone or in combination with V. alginolyticus induced a notable shift in miRNA expression leading to the down- but also upregulation of predicted target genes. Moreover, both increased temperature and the Vibrio exposures significantly altered the larval microbiota composition, with warming reducing microbial richness and diversity. The outcomes of this study highlight the high sensitivity of herring early life stages towards climate change-related multi stressors. Our results indicate that interactive effects of rapidly changing environmental factors may exceed the larval stress threshold impairing essential acclimation responses, which may contribute to the ongoing recruitment decline of Western Baltic Spring-Spawning herring.