Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.

The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 N501Y lineages.

The independent emergence late in 2020 of the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to overcome public health interventions and rising population immunity. Here, by examining patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations that have accumulated in SARS-CoV-2 genomes since the pandemic began, we find that the emergence of these three "501Y lineages" coincided with a major global shift in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes. Following their emergence, the adaptive evolution of 501Y lineage viruses has involved repeated selectively favored convergent mutations at 35 genome sites, mutations we refer to as the 501Y meta-signature. The ongoing convergence of viruses in many other lineages on this meta-signature suggests that it includes multiple mutation combinations capable of promoting the persistence of diverse SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the face of mounting host immune recognition.

Omicron extensively but incompletely escapes Pfizer BNT162b2 neutralization.

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529), first identified in Botswana and South Africa, may compromise vaccine effectiveness and lead to re-infections1. Here we investigated Omicron escape from neutralization by antibodies from South African individuals vaccinated with Pfizer BNT162b2. We used blood samples taken soon after vaccination from individuals who were vaccinated and previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 or vaccinated with no evidence of previous infection. We isolated and sequence-confirmed live Omicron virus from an infected person and observed that Omicron requires the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to infect cells. We compared plasma neutralization of Omicron relative to an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain and found that neutralization of ancestral virus was much higher in infected and vaccinated individuals compared with the vaccinated-only participants. However, both groups showed a 22-fold reduction in vaccine-elicited neutralization by the Omicron variant. Participants who were vaccinated and had previously been infected exhibited residual neutralization of Omicron similar to the level of neutralization of the ancestral virus observed in the vaccination-only group. These data support the notion that reasonable protection against Omicron may be maintained using vaccination approaches.

Omicron infection enhances Delta antibody immunity in vaccinated persons.

The extent to which Omicron infection1-9, with or without previous vaccination, elicits protection against the previously dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is unclear. Here we measured the neutralization capacity against variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 39 individuals in South Africa infected with the Omicron sublineage BA.1 starting at a median of 6 (interquartile range 3-9) days post symptom onset and continuing until last follow-up sample available, a median of 23 (interquartile range 19-27) days post symptoms to allow BA.1-elicited neutralizing immunity time to develop. Fifteen participants were vaccinated with Pfizer's BNT162b2 or Johnson & Johnson's Ad26.CoV2.S and had BA.1 breakthrough infections, and 24 were unvaccinated. BA.1 neutralization increased from a geometric mean 50% focus reduction neutralization test titre of 42 at enrolment to 575 at the last follow-up time point (13.6-fold) in vaccinated participants and from 46 to 272 (6.0-fold) in unvaccinated participants. Delta virus neutralization also increased, from 192 to 1,091 (5.7-fold) in vaccinated participants and from 28 to 91 (3.0-fold) in unvaccinated participants. At the last time point, unvaccinated individuals infected with BA.1 had low absolute levels of neutralization for the non-BA.1 viruses and 2.2-fold lower BA.1 neutralization, 12.0-fold lower Delta neutralization, 9.6-fold lower Beta variant neutralization, 17.9-fold lower ancestral virus neutralization and 4.8-fold lower Omicron sublineage BA.2 neutralization relative to vaccinated individuals infected with BA.1. These results indicate that hybrid immunity formed by vaccination and Omicron BA.1 infection should be protective against Delta and other variants. By contrast, infection with Omicron BA.1 alone offers limited cross-protection despite moderate enhancement.

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in southern Africa has been characterized by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, while the second and third waves were driven by the Beta (B.1.351) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, respectively1-3. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron, B.1.1.529) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which are predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity.

Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 from neutralization by convalescent plasma.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have arisen independently at multiple locations1,2 and may reduce the efficacy of current vaccines that target the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-23. Here, using a live-virus neutralization assay, we compared the neutralization of a non-VOC variant with the 501Y.V2 VOC (also known as B.1.351) using plasma collected from adults who were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the two waves of infection in South Africa, the second wave of which was dominated by infections with the 501Y.V2 variant. Sequencing demonstrated that infections of plasma donors from the first wave were with viruses that did not contain the mutations associated with 501Y.V2, except for one infection that contained the E484K substitution in the receptor-binding domain. The 501Y.V2 virus variant was effectively neutralized by plasma from individuals who were infected during the second wave. The first-wave virus variant was effectively neutralized by plasma from first-wave infections. However, the 501Y.V2 variant was poorly cross-neutralized by plasma from individuals with first-wave infections; the efficacy was reduced by 15.1-fold relative to neutralization of 501Y.V2 by plasma from individuals infected in the second wave. By contrast, cross-neutralization of first-wave virus variants using plasma from individuals with second-wave infections was more effective, showing only a 2.3-fold decrease relative to neutralization of first-wave virus variants by plasma from individuals infected in the first wave. Although we tested only one plasma sample from an individual infected with a SARS-CoV-2 variant with only the E484K substitution, this plasma sample potently neutralized both variants. The observed effective neutralization of first-wave virus by plasma from individuals infected with 501Y.V2 provides preliminary evidence that vaccines based on VOC sequences could retain activity against other circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages.

Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa.

Continued uncontrolled transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in many parts of the world is creating conditions for substantial evolutionary changes to the virus1,2. Here we describe a newly arisen lineage of SARS-CoV-2 (designated 501Y.V2; also known as B.1.351 or 20H) that is defined by eight mutations in the spike protein, including three substitutions (K417N, E484K and N501Y) at residues in its receptor-binding domain that may have functional importance3-5. This lineage was identified in South Africa after the first wave of the epidemic in a severely affected metropolitan area (Nelson Mandela Bay) that is located on the coast of the Eastern Cape province. This lineage spread rapidly, and became dominant in Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces within weeks. Although the full import of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data-which show rapid expansion and displacement of other lineages in several regions-suggest that this lineage is associated with a selection advantage that most plausibly results from increased transmissibility or immune escape6-8.

Virologic Failure and Drug Resistance After Programmatic Switching to Dolutegravir-based First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in Malawi and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) on first-line, nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) were routinely switched to tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir. We examined virologic outcomes and drug resistance in ART programs in Malawi, where switching was irrespective of viral load, and Zambia, where switching depended on a viral load <1000 copies/mL in the past year. METHODS: We compared the risk of viremia (≥400 copies/mL) at 1 and 2 years by viral load at switch and between countries using exact methods and logistic regression adjusted for age and sex. We performed HIV-1 pol Sanger sequencing on plasma samples with viral load ≥1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: A total of 2832 PWH were eligible (Malawi 1422, Zambia 1410); the median age was 37 years, and 2578 (91.0%) were women. At switch, 77 (5.4%) were viremic in Malawi and 42 (3.0%) in Zambia (P = .001). Viremia at switch was associated with viremia at 1 year (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 6.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.13-11.4) and 2 years (7.0; 95% CI, 3.73-12.6). Viremia was less likely in Zambia than in Malawi at 1 year (OR, 0.55; 0.32-0.94) and 2 years (OR, 0.33; 0.18-0.57). Integrase sequencing was successful for 79 of 113 eligible samples. Drug resistance mutations were found in 5 PWH (Malawi 4, Zambia 1); 2 had major mutations (G118R, E138K, T66A and G118R, E138K) leading to high-level dolutegravir resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting switching to dolutegravir-based ART to PWH with a viral load <1000 copies/mL may reduce subsequent viremia and, consequently, the emergence of dolutegravir drug resistance mutations. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04612452).

Persistent Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection With accumulation of mutations in a patient with poorly controlled Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection.

A 22-year-old woman with uncontrolled advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was persistently infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) beta variant for 9 months, the virus accumulating >20 additional mutations. Antiretroviral therapy suppressed HIV and cleared SARS-CoV-2 within 6 to 9 weeks. Increased vigilance is warranted to benefit affected individuals and prevent the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing using the ONT GridION and the Illumina MiSeq.

BACKGROUND: Over 4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been sequenced globally in the past 2 years. This has been crucial in elucidating transmission chains within communities, the development of new diagnostic methods, vaccines, and antivirals. Although several sequencing technologies have been employed, Illumina and Oxford Nanopore remain the two most commonly used platforms. The sequence quality between these two platforms warrants a comparison of the genomes produced by the two technologies. Here, we compared the SARS-CoV-2 consensus genomes obtained from the Oxford Nanopore Technology GridION and the Illumina MiSeq for 28 sequencing runs. RESULTS: Our results show that the MiSeq had a significantly higher number of consensus genomes classified by Nextclade as good and mediocre compared to the GridION. The MiSeq also had a significantly higher genome coverage and mutation counts than the GridION. CONCLUSION: Due to the low genome coverage, high number of indels, and sensitivity to SARS-CoV-2 viral load noted with the GridION when compared to MiSeq, we can conclude that the MiSeq is more favourable for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, as successful genomic surveillance is dependent on high quality, near-whole consensus genomes.

Acquired HIV drug resistance and virologic monitoring in a HIV hyper-endemic setting in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Introduction of tenofovir (TDF) plus lamivudine (3TC) and dolutegravir (DTG) in first- and second-line HIV treatment regimens in South Africa warrants characterization of acquired HIV-1 drug resistance (ADR) mutations that could impact DTG-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). In this study, we sought to determine prevalence of ADR mutations and their potential impact on susceptibility to drugs used in combination with DTG among HIV-positive adults (≥ 18 years) accessing routine care at a selected ART facility in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: We enrolled adult participants in a cross-sectional study between May and September 2019. Eligible participants had a most recent documented viral load (VL) ≥ 1000 copies/mL after at least 6 months on ART. We genotyped HIV-1 reverse transcriptase and protease genes by Sanger sequencing and assessed ADR. We characterized the effect of ADR mutations on the predicted susceptibility to drugs used in combination with DTG. RESULTS: From 143 participants enrolled, we obtained sequence data for 115 (80%), and 92.2% (95% CI 85.7-96.4) had ADR. The proportion with ADR was similar for participants on first-line ART (65/70, 92.9%, 95% CI 84.1-97.6) and those on second-line ART (40/44, 90.9%, 95% CI 78.3-97.5), and was present for the single participant on third-line ART. Approximately 89% (62/70) of those on first-line ART had dual class NRTI and NNRTI resistance and only six (13.6%) of those on second-line ART had major PI mutations. Most participants (82%) with first-line viraemia maintained susceptibility to Zidovudine (AZT), and the majority of them had lost susceptibility to TDF (71%) and 3TC (84%). Approximately two in every five TDF-treated individuals had thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs). CONCLUSIONS: Susceptibility to AZT among most participants with first-line viraemia suggests that a new second-line regimen of AZT + 3TC + DTG could be effective. However, atypical occurrence of TAMs in TDF-treated individuals suggests a less effective AZT + 3TC + DTG regimen in a subpopulation of patients. As most patients with first-line viraemia had at least low-level resistance to TDF and 3TC, identifying viraemia before switch to TDF + 3TC + DTG is important to avoid DTG functional monotherapy. These findings highlight a need for close monitoring of outcomes on new standardized treatment regimens.

Individualized Treatment of Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis Using Whole-Genome Sequencing and Expanded Drug-Susceptibility Testing.

A case of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis is presented. It highlights the role of whole-genome sequencing, expanded phenotypic drug susceptibility testing, and enhanced case management, offering a more complete understanding of drug susceptibility to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This approach guides an effective individualized treatment strategy that results in rapid sustained culture conversion.

Neurocognitive functioning in MDR-TB patients with and without HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Optimising medication adherence is one of the essential factors in reversing the tide of a TB-HIV syndemic in sub-Saharan Africa, especially South Africa. Impairment in key neurocognitive domains may impair patients' ability to maintain adherence to treatment, but the level of cognition and its relationship to HIV status has not been examined in individuals with drug-resistant TB. We therefore investigated performance on several key neurocognitive domains in relationship to HIV status in a multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients (MDR-TB) sample. METHODS: We enrolled microbiologically confirmed MDR-TB inpatients at a TB-specialist referral hospital in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We collected cross-sectional data on sociodemographic, clinical and neurocognitive function (e.g. attention, memory, executive functioning, language fluency, visual-spatial, eye-hand coordination). For the primary analysis, we excluded participants with major depressive episode/substance use disorder (MDE/SUD). We fitted adjusted Poisson regression models to explore the association between HIV and neurocognitive function. RESULTS: We enrolled 200 people with MDR-TB; 33 had MDE/SUD, and data of 167 were analysed (151 HIV+, 16 HIV-). The mean age of participants was 34.2 years; the majority were female (83%), and 53% had not completed secondary school. There was evidence of impaired neurocognitive functioning across all domains in both HIV+/- study participants. Based on the regression analyses, individuals with co-infection (MDR-TB/HIV+), as well as those who had longer duration of hospital stays experienced significantly lower cognitive performance in several domains. Poor cognitive performance was significantly related to older age and lower educational attainment. The presence of major depression or substance use disorders did not influence the significance of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with MDR-TB have significant neurocognitive impairment, especially if HIV positive. An integrated approach is necessary in the management of MDR-TB as cognitive health influences the ability to adhere to chronic treatment, clinical outcomes and functionality.

OBJECTIFS: L'optimisation de l'adhésion au traitement est l'un des facteurs essentiels pour inverser la tendance d'un syndrome TB-VIH en Afrique subsaharienne, en particulier en Afrique du Sud. Des déficiences dans des domaines neurocognitifs clés peuvent entraver la capacité des patients à maintenir l'adhésion au traitement, mais le niveau de cognition et sa relation avec le statut VIH n'ont pas été examinés chez les personnes atteintes de TB résistante aux médicaments. Nous avons donc étudié les performances de plusieurs domaines neurocognitifs clés en relation avec le statut VIH dans un échantillon de tuberculose multirésistante (TB-MDR). MÉTHODES: Nous avons recruté des patients hospitalisés pour une TB-MDR confirmée microbiologiquement dans un hôpital de référence spécialisé dans la TB dans la province du KwaZulu-Natal, en Afrique du Sud. Nous avons recueilli des données transversales sur les fonctions sociodémographiques, cliniques et neurocognitives (par exemple l'attention, la mémoire, le fonctionnement exécutif, la maîtrise du langage, la coordination visuelle-spatiale et œil-main). Pour l'analyse primaire, nous avons exclu les participants souffrant d'un épisode dépressif majeur ou d'un trouble lié à la consommation de substances (EDM/TCS). Nous avons appliqué des modèles de régression de Poisson ajustés pour explorer l'association entre le VIH et la fonction neurocognitive. RÉSULTATS: Nous avons recruté 200 personnes atteintes de TB-MDR, 33 d'entre elles étaient atteintes de EDM/TCS, les données des 167 autres ont été analysées (151 VIH-positives, 16 VIH-négatives). L'âge moyen des participants était de 34,2 ans; la majorité étaient des femmes (83%) et 53% n'avaient pas terminé leurs études secondaires. Les participants à l'étude VIH+ et VIH- présentaient des signes de dysfonctionnement neurocognitif dans tous les domaines. D'après les analyses de régression, les personnes coinfectées (TB-MDR/VIH), ainsi que celles qui ont été hospitalisées pendant une longue période, présentent des performances cognitives nettement inférieures dans plusieurs domaines. Les mauvaises performances cognitives étaient significativement liées à l'âge plus élevé et à un niveau d'éducation plus faible. La présence d'une dépression majeure ou de troubles liés à la consommation de substances n'a pas influencé la signification des résultats. CONCLUSIONS: Les adultes atteints de TB-MDR présentent une importante déficience neurocognitive, surtout s'ils sont VIH-positifs. Une approche intégrée est nécessaire dans la prise en charge de la TB-MDR car la santé cognitive influence la capacité d'adhésion à un traitement chronique, les résultats cliniques et la fonctionnalité.

Impact of Point-of-Care Xpert MTB/RIF on Tuberculosis Treatment Initiation. A Cluster-randomized Trial.

RATIONALE: Point-of-care (POC) diagnostics have the potential to reduce pretreatment loss to follow-up and delays to initiation of appropriate tuberculosis (TB) treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of a POC diagnostic strategy on initiation of appropriate TB treatment. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial of adults with cough who were HIV positive and/or at high risk of drug-resistant TB. Two-week time blocks were randomized to two strategies: (1) Xpert MTB/RIF test (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) performed at a district hospital laboratory or (2) POC Xpert MTB/RIF test performed at a primary health care clinic. All participants provided two sputum specimens: one for the Xpert test and the other for culture as a reference standard. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) initiated on appropriate TB treatment within 30 days. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Between August 22, 2011, and March 1, 2013, 36 two-week blocks were randomized, and 1,297 individuals were enrolled (646 in the laboratory arm, 651 in the POC arm), 159 (12.4%) of whom had culture-positive PTB. The proportions of participants with culture-positive PTB initiated on appropriate TB treatment within 30 days were 76.5% in the laboratory arm and 79.5% in the POC arm (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-2.53; P = 0.76; risk difference, 3.1%; 95% confidence interval, -16.2 to 10.1). The median time to initiation of appropriate treatment was 7 days (laboratory) versus 1 day (POC). CONCLUSIONS: POC positioning of the Xpert test led to more rapid initiation of appropriate TB treatment. Achieving one-stop diagnosis and treatment for all people with TB will require simpler, more sensitive diagnostics and broader strengthening of health systems. Clinical trial registered with www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN 18642314) and www.sanctr.gov.za (DOH-27-0711-3568).

Drug resistance in children at virological failure in a rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, cohort.

BACKGROUND: Better understanding of drug resistance patterns in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is required to inform public health policies in high prevalence settings. The aim of this study was to characterise the acquired drug resistance in HIV-infected children failing first-line ART in a decentralised rural HIV programme. METHODS: Plasma samples were collected from 101 paediatric patients (≤15 yrs of age) identified as failing ART. RNA was extracted from the plasma, reverse transcribed and a 1.3 kb region of the pol gene was amplified and sequenced using Sanger sequencing protocols. Sequences were edited in Geneious and drug resistance mutations were identified using the RegaDB and the Stanford resistance algorithms. The prevalence and frequency of mutations were analysed together with selected clinical and demographic data in STATA v11. RESULTS: A total of 101 children were enrolled and 89 (88%) were successfully genotyped; 73 on a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen and 16 on a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen at the time of genotyping. The majority of patients on an NNRTI regimen (80%) had both nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) and NNRTI resistance mutations. M184V and K103N were the most common mutations amongst children on NNRTI-based and M184V among children on PI-based regimens. 30.1% had one or more thymidine analogue mutation (TAM) and 6% had ≥3 TAMs. Only one child on a PI-based regimen harboured a major PI resistance mutation. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst the patterns of resistance were largely predictable, the few complex resistance patterns seen with NNRTI-based regimens and the absence of major PI mutations in children failing PI-based regimens suggest the need for wider access to genotypic resistance testing in this setting.

Implementing antiretroviral resistance testing in a primary health care HIV treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: early experiences, achievements and challenges.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral drug resistance is becoming increasingly common with the expansion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment programmes in high prevalence settings. Genotypic resistance testing could have benefit in guiding individual-level treatment decisions but successful models for delivering resistance testing in low- and middle-income countries have not been reported. METHODS: An HIV Treatment Failure Clinic model was implemented within a large primary health care HIV treatment programme in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Genotypic resistance testing was offered to adults (≥16 years) with virological failure on first-line antiretroviral therapy (one viral load >1000 copies/ml after at least 12 months on a standard first-line regimen). A genotypic resistance test report was generated with treatment recommendations from a specialist HIV clinician and sent to medical officers at the clinics who were responsible for patient management. A quantitative process evaluation was conducted to determine how the model was implemented and to provide feedback regarding barriers and challenges to delivery. RESULTS: A total of 508 specimens were submitted for genotyping between 8 April 2011 and 31 January 2013; in 438 cases (86.2%) a complete genotype report with recommendations from the specialist clinician was sent to the medical officer. The median turnaround time from specimen collection to receipt of final report was 18 days (interquartile range (IQR) 13-29). In 114 (26.0%) cases the recommended treatment differed from what would be given in the absence of drug resistance testing. In the majority of cases (n = 315, 71.9%), the subsequent treatment prescribed was in line with the recommendations of the report. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypic resistance testing was successfully implemented in this large primary health care HIV programme and the system functioned well enough for the results to influence clinical management decisions in real time. Further research will explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of different implementation models in different settings.

Clinical outcomes with second-line dolutegravir in people with virological failure on first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG) is recommended for second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) after virological failure on first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimens in people living with HIV in low-income and middle-income countries. We compared the effectiveness of DTG versus the previously recommended ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) regimen for second-line treatment in South Africa. METHODS: In this retrospective observational cohort study, we used routinely collected, de-identified data from 59 primary health-care facilities in eThekwini Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We included people living with HIV aged 15 years or older with virological failure (defined as two consecutive viral loads of ≥1000 copies per mL at least 56 days apart) on first-line NNRTI-based ART containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and who switched to second-line ART. Our primary outcomes were retention in care and viral suppression (<50 copies per mL) at 12 months after starting second-line treatment. We used modified Poisson regression models to compare these outcomes between second-line regimens (zidovudine [AZT]/emtricitabine or lamivudine [XTC]/DTG; TDF/XTC/DTG; and AZT/XTC/LPV/r). FINDINGS: We included 1214 participants in our study, of whom 729 (60%) were female and 485 (40%) were male, and whose median age was 36 years (IQR 30-42). 689 (57%) were switched to AZT/XTC/LPV/r, 217 (18%) to AZT/XTC/DTG, and 308 (25%) to TDF/XTC/DTG. Compared with AZT/XTC/LPV/r (75%), retention in care was higher with AZT/XTC/DTG (86%, adjusted risk ratio [aRR]=1·14, 95% CI 1·03-1·27; adjusted risk difference [aRD]=10·89%, 95% CI 2·01 to 19·78) but similar with TDF/XTC/DTG (77%, aRR=1·01, 0·94-1·10; aRD=1·04%, -5·03 to 7·12). Observed retention in care was lower with TDF/XTC/DTG than with AZT/XTC/DTG, although in multivariable analysis evidence for a difference was weak (aRR=0·89, 0·78-1·01, p=0·060; aRD=-9·85%, -20·33 to 0·63, p=0·066). Of 799 participants who were retained in care with a 12-month viral load test done, viral suppression was higher with AZT/XTC/DTG (59%; aRR=1·25, 1·06-1·47; aRD=11·57%, 2·37 to 20·76) and higher with TDF/XTC/DTG (61%; aRR=1·30, 1·14-1·48; aRD=14·16%, 7·14 to 21·18) than with AZT/XTC/LPV/r (47%). INTERPRETATION: These findings from routine care support further implementation of WHO's recommendation to use DTG instead of LPV/r in people living with HIV who experience virological failure while receiving first-line NNRTI-based ART. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.