Optimization of Mother-to-Child Hepatitis B Virus Prevention Program: Integration of Maternal Screening and Infant Post-vaccination Serologic Testing.

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of the impact on mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of a HBV-prevention program that incorporates maternal antiviral prophylaxis is hindered by the limited availability of real-world data. METHODS: This study analyzed data on maternal HBV screening, neonatal immunization, and post-vaccination serologic testing (PVST) for HBsAg among at-risk infants born to HBV carrier mothers from the National Immunization Information System during 01/01/2008-31/12/2022. Through linkage with the National Health Insurance Database, information of maternal antiviral therapy was obtained. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to explore MTCT risk in relation to infant-mother characteristics and prevention strategies. RESULTS: Totally, 2,460,218 deliveries with maternal HBV status were screened. Between 2008 and 2022, the annual HBsAg and HBeAg seropositivity rates among native pregnant women aged 15-49 years decreased from 12.2% to 2.6% and from 2.7% to 0.4%, respectively (p for both trends < 0.0001). Among the 22,859 at-risk infants undergoing PVST, the MTCT rates differed between infants born to HBsAg-positive/HBeAg-negative and HBeAg-positive mothers (0.75% and 6.33%, respectively; p < 0.001). The MTCT rate was 1.72% (11/641) for infants born to HBeAg-positive mothers with antiviral prophylaxis. MTCT risk increased with maternal HBeAg-positivity (OR 9.29, 6.79-12.73) and decreased with maternal antiviral prophylaxis (OR 0.28, 0.16-0.49). For infants with maternal HBeAg-positivity, MTCT risk was associated with mothers born in the immunization era (OR 1.40, 1.17-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: MTCT was related to maternal HBeAg-positivity and effectively prevented by maternal prophylaxis in the immunized population. At-risk infants born to maternal vaccinated cohorts might possibly pose further risk.

Population-Based Evaluation of Vaccine Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Severe Illness, and Death, Taiwan.

Taiwan provided several COVID-19 vaccine platforms: mRNA (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273), adenoviral vector-based (AZD1222), and protein subunit (MVC-COV1901). After Taiwan shifted from its zero-COVID strategy in April 2022, population-based evaluation of vaccine effectiveness (VE) became possible. We conducted an observational cohort study of 21,416,151 persons to examine VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection, moderate and severe illness, and death during March 22, 2021-September 30, 2022. After adjusting for age and sex, we found that persons who completed 3 vaccine doses (2 primary, 1 booster) or received MVC-COV1901 as the primary series had the lowest hospitalization incidence (0.04-0.20 cases/100,000 person-days). We also found 95.8% VE against hospitalization for 3 doses of BNT162b2, 91.0% for MVC-COV1901, 81.8% for mRNA-1273, and 65.7% for AZD1222, which had the lowest overall VE. Our findings indicated that protein subunit vaccines provide similar protection against SARS-CoV-2---associated hospitalization as mRNA vaccines and can inform mix-and-match vaccine selection in other countries.

Double-Negative Results Matter: A Reevaluation of Sensitivities for Detecting SARS-CoV-2 Infection Using Saliva Versus Nasopharyngeal Swabs.

In a recent systematic review, Bastos et al. (Ann Intern Med. 2021;174(4):501-510) compared the sensitivities of saliva sampling and nasopharyngeal swabs in the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection by assuming a composite reference standard defined as positive if either test is positive and negative if both tests are negative (double negative). Even under a perfect specificity assumption, this approach ignores the double-negative results and risks overestimating the sensitivities due to residual misclassification. In this article, we first illustrate the impact of double-negative results in the estimation of the sensitivities in a single study, and then propose a 2-step latent class meta-analysis method for reevaluating both sensitivities using the same published data set as that used in Bastos et al. by properly including the observed double-negative results. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the performance of the proposed method with Bastos et al.'s method for varied levels of prevalence and between-study heterogeneity. The results demonstrate that the sensitivities are overestimated noticeably using Bastos et al.'s method, and the proposed method provides a more accurate evaluation with nearly no bias and close-to-nominal coverage probability. In conclusion, double-negative results can significantly impact the estimated sensitivities when a gold standard is absent, and thus they should be properly incorporated.

Aspirin use is associated with improvement in distant metastases outcome in patients with residual disease after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Aspirin (ASA) use has been correlated with improved outcomes in high-risk patients at risk for distant metastases. Breast cancer (BC) patients with residual disease, particularly nodal disease (ypN +) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), are high-risk patients portending worse outcomes. We hypothesized that ASA use can reduce distant metastases and improve outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Patients at our institutions from 2005 to 2018, with BC who did not achieve complete response (pCR) after NAC were reviewed (IRB protocol STU- 052012-019). Data, including evidence of ASA use, and clinico-pathologic parameters were analyzed. Survival outcomes were obtained (Kaplan Meier analysis) and univariate (UVA) and multivariable (MVA) Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: 637 did not achieve pCR (ypN+ = 422). 138 were ASA users. Median follow-up for the control and ASA group were 3.8 (IQR 2.2-6.3) and 3.8 (IQR 2.5-6.4) years, respectively. Majority were stage II/III. 387 were hormone receptor positive, 191 HER2 +, and 157 triple negative. On UVA, ASA use, PR status, pathologic and clinical stage showed significance for DMFS, and disease-free survival (DFS). On MVA, ASA use associated with improved 5-year DFS (p = .01, 87.0% vs 79.6%, adjusted HR = 0.48) and improved 5-year DMFS (p = .04, 92.8% vs 89.2%, adjusted HR = 0.57). In the ypN + patients, ASA use associated with improved 5-year DMFS (p = .008, 85.7% vs 70.7%, adjusted HR = 0.43) and DFS (p = .02, 86.8% vs 74.3%, adjusted HR = 0.48). CONCLUSION: For non-responders, particularly ypN + patients, ASA use associated with improved outcome. These hypotheses-generating results suggest for development of prospective clinical trials of augmented ASA use in selected very high-risk BC patients.

Lactation alters the relationship between liver lipid synthesis and hepatic fat stores in the postpartum period.

In mothers who are nursing their infants, increased clearance of plasma metabolites into the mammary gland may reduce ectopic lipid in the liver. No study to date has investigated the role of lactation on liver lipid synthesis in humans, and we hypothesized that lactation would modify fatty acid and glucose handling to support liver metabolism in a manner synchronized with the demands of milk production. Lactating (n = 18) and formula-feeding women (n = 10) underwent metabolic testing at 6-week postpartum to determine whether lactation modified intrahepatic triacylglycerols (IHTGs), measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Subjects ingested oral deuterated water to measure fractional de novo lipogenesis (DNL) in VLDL-TG during fasting and during an isotope-labeled clamp at an insulin infusion rate of 10 mU/m2/min. Compared with formula-feeding women, we found that lactating women exhibited lower plasma VLDL-TG concentrations, similar IHTG content and similar contribution of DNL to total VLDL-TG production. These findings suggest that lactation lowers plasma VLDL-TG concentrations for reasons that are unrelated to IHTG and DNL. Surprisingly, we determined that the rate of appearance of nonesterified fatty acids was not related to IHTG in either group, and the expected positive association between DNL and IHTG was only significant in formula-feeding women. Further, in lactating women only, the higher the prolactin concentration, the lower the IHTG, while greater DNL strongly associated with elevations in VLDL-TG. In conclusion, we suggest that future studies should investigate the role of lactation and prolactin in liver lipid secretion and metabolism.

Substance use and mental health burden in head and neck and other cancer survivors: A National Health Interview Survey analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco dependence, alcohol abuse, depression, distress, and other adverse patient-level influences are common in head and neck cancer (HNC) survivors. Their interrelatedness and precise burden in comparison with survivors of other cancers are poorly understood. METHODS: National Health Interview Survey data from 1997 to 2016 were pooled. The prevalence of adverse patient-level influences among HNC survivors and matched survivors of other cancers were compared using descriptive statistics. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluating covariate associations with the primary study outcomes were performed. These included 1) current cigarette smoking and/or heavy alcohol use (>14 drinks per week) and 2) high mental health burden (severe psychological distress [Kessler Index ≥ 13] and/or frequent depressive/anxiety symptoms). RESULTS: In all, 918 HNC survivors and 3672 matched survivors of other cancers were identified. Compared with other cancer survivors, more HNC survivors were current smokers and/or heavy drinkers (24.6% [95% CI, 21.5%-27.7%] vs 18.0% [95% CI, 16.6%-19.4%]) and exhibited a high mental health burden (18.6% [95% CI, 15.7%-21.5%] vs 13.0% [95% CI, 11.7%-14.3%]). In multivariable analyses, 1) a high mental health burden predicted for smoking and/or heavy drinking (odds ratio [OR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9), and 2) current cigarette smoking predicted for a high mental health burden (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3). Furthermore, nonpartnered marital status and uninsured/Medicaid insurance status were significantly associated with both cigarette smoking and/or heavy alcohol use (ORs, 1.9 [95% CI, 1.4-2.5] and 1.5 [95% CI, 1.0-2.1], respectively) and a high mental health burden (ORs, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1 -1.8] and 3.0 [95% CI, 2.2-4.2], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Stakeholders should allocate greater supportive care resources to HNC survivors. The interdependence of substance abuse, adverse mental health symptoms, and other adverse patient-level influences requires development of novel, multimodal survivorship care interventions.

Endovascular Treatment and Outcomes for Femoropopliteal In-Stent Restenosis: Insights from the XLPAD Registry.

Background: There is limited "real-world" evidence examining treatment modalities and outcomes in patients with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease undergoing endovascular treatment of femoropopliteal (FP) in-stent restenosis (ISR). Materials and Methods: We compared outcomes in 2,895 patients from the XLPAD registry (NCT01904851) between 2006 and 2019 treated for FP ISR (n = 347) and non-ISR (n = 2,548) lesions. Primary endpoint included major adverse limb events (MALE) at 1 year, a composite of all-cause death, target limb repeat revascularization, or major amputation. Results: ISR patients were more frequently on antiplatelet (94.5% vs 89.4%, p=0.007) and statin (68.9% vs 60.3%, p=0.003) therapies. Lesion length was similar (ISR: 145 ± 99 mm vs. non-ISR: 142 ± 99 mm, p=0.55). Fewer treated ISR lesions were chronic total occlusions (47.3% vs. 53.7%, p=0.02) and severely calcified (22.4% vs. 44.7%, p < 0.001). Atherectomy (63.5% vs. 45.0%, p < 0.001) and drug-coated balloons (DCB; 4.7% vs. 1.7%, p < 0.001) were more frequently used in ISR lesions. The distal embolization rate was higher in ISR lesions (2.4% vs. 0.9%, p=0.02). Repeat revascularization (21.5% vs. 16.7%, p=0.04; Figure) was higher and freedom from MALE at 1 year was significantly lower (87% vs. 92.5%, p < 0.001) in the ISR group. Conclusion: Atherectomy and DCB are more frequently used to treat FP ISR lesions. Patients with FP ISR have more intraprocedural distal embolization, higher repeat revascularization procedures, and lower freedom from MALE at 1 year.

Extending Hui-Walter framework to correlated outcomes with application to diagnosis tests of an eye disease among premature infants.

Diagnostic accuracy, a measure of diagnostic tests for correctly identifying patients with or without a target disease, plays an important role in evidence-based medicine. Diagnostic accuracy of a new test ideally should be evaluated by comparing to a gold standard; however, in many medical applications it may be invasive, costly, or even unethical to obtain a gold standard for particular diseases. When the accuracy of a new candidate test under evaluation is assessed by comparison to an imperfect reference test, bias is expected to occur and result in either overestimates or underestimates of its true accuracy. In addition, diagnostic test studies often involve repeated measurements of the same patient, such as the paired eyes or multiple teeth, and generally lead to correlated and clustered data. Using the conventional statistical methods to estimate diagnostic accuracy can be biased by ignoring the within-cluster correlations. Despite numerous statistical approaches have been proposed to tackle this problem, the methodology to deal with correlated and clustered data in the absence of a gold standard is limited. In this article, we propose a method based on the composite likelihood function to derive simple and intuitive closed-form solutions for estimates of diagnostic accuracy, in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Through simulation studies, we illustrate the relative advantages of the proposed method over the existing methods that simply treat an imperfect reference test as a gold standard in correlated and clustered data. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method can reduce not only substantial bias, but also the computational burden. Moreover, to demonstrate the utility of this approach, we apply the proposed method to the study of National-Eye-Institute-funded Telemedicine Approaches to Evaluating of Acute-Phase Retinopathy of Prematurity (e-ROP), for estimating accuracies of both the ophthalmologist examination and the image evaluation.

No benefit of vorapaxar on walking performance in patients with intermittent claudication.

Background: The effect of pharmacologic agents in improving walking and quality of life measures in patients with intermittent claudication (IC) is variable. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of the novel antithrombotic vorapaxar on symptom status in patients with IC. Methods: The study was a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled trial wherein patients with IC were treated with either vorapaxar or placebo in addition to a home exercise program for 6 months. Walking performance and quality of life were assessed by graded treadmill test (GTT) and 12-Item Short-Form Survey (SF-12), respectively, at baseline and at 6 months. A total of 102 subjects were randomized across 12 centers. Results: Of the subjects randomized, 66 completed all study assessments and comprised the dataset that was analyzed. After 6 months, there was no significant difference between the vorapaxar and placebo groups in walking performance, as reflected by the GTT, or in quality of life, as reflected by the SF-12. There were no severe bleeding events in either group. Conclusion: This study found no benefit of vorapaxar in patients with IC and reiterates the need for future drug therapy studies that expand the benefits of supervised exercise therapy in patients with IC. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02660866.

Embracing study heterogeneity for finding genetic interactions in large-scale research consortia.

Genetic interactions have been recognized as a potentially important contributor to the heritability of complex diseases. Nevertheless, due to small effect sizes and stringent multiple-testing correction, identifying genetic interactions in complex diseases is particularly challenging. To address the above challenges, many genomic research initiatives collaborate to form large-scale consortia and develop open access to enable sharing of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. Despite the perceived benefits of data sharing from large consortia, a number of practical issues have arisen, such as privacy concerns on individual genomic information and heterogeneous data sources from distributed GWAS databases. In the context of large consortia, we demonstrate that the heterogeneously appearing marginal effects over distributed GWAS databases can offer new insights into genetic interactions for which conventional methods have had limited success. In this paper, we develop a novel two-stage testing procedure, named phylogenY-based effect-size tests for interactions using first 2 moments (YETI2), to detect genetic interactions through both pooled marginal effects, in terms of averaging site-specific marginal effects, and heterogeneity in marginal effects across sites, using a meta-analytic framework. YETI2 can not only be applied to large consortia without shared personal information but also can be used to leverage underlying heterogeneity in marginal effects to prioritize potential genetic interactions. We investigate the performance of YETI2 through simulation studies and apply YETI2 to bladder cancer data from dbGaP.

Outcomes of Pediatric Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this work is to provide insight into survival and neurologic outcomes of pediatric patients supported with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation. DATA SOURCES: A systematic search of Embase, PubMed, Cochrane, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science was performed from January 1990 to May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: A comprehensive list of nonregistry studies with pediatric patients managed with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation was included. DATA EXTRACTION: Study characteristics and outcome estimates were extracted from each article. DATA SYNTHESIS: Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences were estimated using subgroup meta-analysis and meta-regression. The Meta-analyses Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guideline was followed and the certainty of evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system. Twenty-eight studies (1,348 patients) were included. There was a steady increase in extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation occurrence rate from the 1990s until 2020. There were 32, 338, and 1,094 patients' articles published between 1990 and 2000, 2001 and 2010, and 2010 and 2020, respectively. More than 70% were cannulated for a primary cardiac arrest. Pediatric extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation patients had a 46% (CI 95% = 43-48%; p < 0.01) overall survival rate. The rate of survival with favorable neurologic outcome was 30% (CI 95% = 27-33%; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The use of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation is rapidly expanding, particularly for children with underlying cardiac disease. An overall survival of 46% and favorable neurologic outcomes add credence to this emerging therapy.

Effects of salt intake on sympathetic neural and pressor responses to cold pressor test in premenopausal women with a history of normal pregnancy.

Excessive salt intake is considered a risk factor for the development of hypertension. Additionally, aberrant neurocirculatory responses to a cold stimulus are associated with an increased risk of hypertension. This study aimed to determine whether salt loading versus salt reduction would impact hemodynamic and sympathetic neural responses during the cold pressor test (CPT) in premenopausal women with a history of normal pregnancy. Nine healthy premenopausal women [42 ± 3 (SD) yr] were given a standardized isocaloric high-salt (HS; 250 mEq sodium/day) or low-salt (LS; 50 mEq sodium/day) diet for 1-wk each (∼2 mo apart with the order randomized), while water intake was ad libitum. Laboratory testing was performed following each HS and LS period in the mid-luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. Subjects were in the supine position and beat-by-beat blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) were continuously measured during 1-min baseline followed by 2-min CPT, and 3-min recovery. BP and HR increased during the CPT (both P < 0.001); the responses were similar between HS and LS. MSNA increased during the CPT, but the increment (Δ) was greater during HS than LS (29 ± 6 vs. 15 ± 4 bursts/min; P < 0.001). The transduction of MSNA for vasoconstriction during the CPT was lower in HS (P < 0.05). Thus, salt loading augments sympathetic neural reactivity to the cold stimulus with similar pressor responses compared with salt reduction, which may be attributed to the blunted neurovascular transduction-a compensatory mechanism for hemodynamic homeostasis in premenopausal women with a history of normal pregnancy.

Impact of high-salt versus low-salt intake on the response of sympathetic baroreflex sensitivity to orthostasis in women with a history of normal pregnancy.

Previous studies have demonstrated that sympathetic baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) increases during orthostatic stress in humans. We recently showed that dietary salt intake affects sympathetic neural control in healthy premenopausal women. This study aimed to determine whether salt loading versus salt reduction would impact sympathetic BRS during orthostasis in premenopausal women with a history of normal pregnancy. Nine healthy women [42 ± 3 (SD) yr] were given a standardized isocaloric high-salt (250 mEq sodium/day) or low-salt (50 mEq sodium/day) diet for 1 wk each (∼2 mo apart with the order randomized), whereas water intake was ad libitum. Laboratory testing was performed following each high- and low-salt period in the midluteal phase of the menstrual cycle. Hemodynamics and muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) were measured at baseline (supine; 2 min) and during a graded head-up tilt (30° for 5 min and 60° for 20 min). Sympathetic BRS was assessed during baseline and head-up tilt. Hemodynamics were not different between salt conditions during baseline or tilt. Both supine and upright MSNA indices were lower in high salt than low salt (all P < 0.05), however, there was no interaction effect (P = 0.507-0.996). On moving from supine to upright, sympathetic BRS remained unchanged in high salt but increased in low salt (P = 0.028 for interaction). Thus, salt loading diminishes the responsiveness of sympathetic BRS during orthostasis compared with salt reduction in healthy premenopausal women with prior normal pregnancy. Whether this is one underlying mechanism for salt-induced development of hypertension during ambulation remains to be determined.

Clinical outcomes of patients with and without chronic kidney disease undergoing endovascular revascularization of infrainguinal peripheral artery disease: Insights from the XLPAD registry.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the present study was to define clinical outcomes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients undergoing endovascular revascularization of infrainguinal peripheral artery disease (PAD). BACKGROUND: CKD is an established predictor of advanced PAD. However, clinical outcomes for these patients following endovascular revascularization remain inadequately defined. METHODS: Using the ongoing multicenter Excellence in Peripheral Artery Disease (XLPAD) registry (NCT01904851), we analyzed all-cause death, target limb amputation, and need for repeat revascularization for patients with and without CKD undergoing infrainguinal endovascular revascularization between the years 2005 and 2018. RESULTS: Of 3,699 patients, 15.1% (n = 559) had baseline CKD. CKD patients had significantly higher incidence of heavily calcified lesions (48.4% vs. 38.1%, p < .001) and diffuse disease (66.9% vs. 61.5%, p = .007). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant differences between CKD and non-CKD patient outcomes at 12 months for freedom from target limb amputation (79.9% vs. 92.7%, p < .001) and all-cause death (90.1% vs. 97.6%, p < .001). However, freedom from target vessel revascularization was similar between the groups. After adjusting for baseline comorbidities in the CKD and non-CKD groups, the hazard ratios for target limb amputation and death at 12 months were 2.28 (95% confidence interval or CI 1.25-4.17, p < .001) and 4.38 (95% CI 2.58-7.45, p < .001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Following endovascular revascularization for infrainguinal PAD, CKD was an independent predictor of all-cause death and target limb amputation at 12 months.

Regional heterogeneity of cerebral hemodynamics in mild neonatal encephalopathy measured with multichannel near-infrared spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND: Neuromonitoring at the bedside is the key to understand the pathophysiological mechanisms of brain injury associated with neonatal encephalopathy. The current practice is to monitor the forehead using a noninvasive cerebral oximetry-it remains unknown to what extent cerebral hemodynamics in other brain regions is different to the frontal region. METHOD: A multichannel near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) system was used to monitor neonates (n = 14) with fetal acidosis and mild neonatal encephalopathy at four brain regions (the frontal, posterior, left temporal, and right temporal lobes). The data were compared to delineate the regional difference in (1) cerebral hemodynamics and (2) pressure autoregulation. For both analyses, wavelet transform coherence was applied. RESULTS: We observed frontal-posterior heterogeneity as indicated by significantly lower coherence between these two regions (p = 0.02). Furthermore, areas with regional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected lesions showed greater hemodynamic variations compared to non-affected areas (p = 0.03), while cerebral autoregulation was not affected and showed no difference. CONCLUSION: Cerebral hemodynamics in mild neonatal encephalopathy is heterogeneous across different brain regions, while cerebral autoregulation remains intact. These findings indicate the robustness of the wavelet measure of cerebral autoregulation in this population, but need to be further investigated in the presence of severe injury. IMPACT: This proof-of-concept study is the first to investigate the regional difference of cerebral hemodynamics and autoregulation in mild neonatal encephalopathy. Study findings confirm that brain functions are complex in the developing neonatal brain and that cerebral hemodynamics are region specific in newborns with frontal-posterior heterogeneity among brain regions probed by multichannel NIRS. Regional MRI lesions were associated with differences across NIRS regional channels among the affected side. Cerebral autoregulation with multichannel NIRS is not affected by regional MRI abnormalities.

Menstrual cycle effects on sympathetic neural burst amplitude distribution during orthostasis in young women.

PURPOSE: Fluctuations in ovarian hormones during the menstrual cycle impact muscle sympathetic nerve activity burst frequency and burst incidence at rest. The purpose of this study was to investigate menstrual cycle effects on sympathetic neural burst amplitude distribution during an orthostatic challenge in young women. METHODS: This study included 11 healthy women (33 ± 10 years [mean ± standard deviation]). Muscle sympathetic nerve activity was measured in the supine position as baseline measurement and during 5 min of 60° upright tilting, during the early follicular phase (low estrogen and progesterone) and mid-luteal phase (high estrogen and progesterone) of the menstrual cycle. Relative burst amplitude distribution of muscle sympathetic nerve activity was characterized by the mean, median, skewness, and kurtosis. RESULTS: From the supine to upright position, mean and median values of relative burst amplitude increased (both P < 0.05), regardless of phases of the menstrual cycle (P = 0.5 and P = 0.7, respectively). In comparison, during the early follicular phase, skewness and kurtosis remained unchanged (P = 0.6 and P = 0.3, respectively) and kurtosis decreased (1.25 ± 1.11 supine vs. - 0.03 ± 0.73 upright; P = 0.02); there was no change in skewness during the mid-luteal phase (P = 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: In response to orthostasis, while the symmetry and tailedness/peakness of burst amplitude distribution do not change during the early follicular phase, the distribution during the mid-luteal phase becomes flatter with a lower but broader peak. The latter result suggests that the firing probability of large axon action potentials in response to orthostatic challenge is higher when estrogen and progesterone levels are elevated. The role of changes in sympathetic neural burst amplitude distribution in orthostatic tolerance remains to be determined.

Intraoperative Microvascular Complications in Autologous Breast Reconstruction: The Effects of Resident Training on Microsurgical Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Academic medical centers with large volumes of autologous breast reconstruction afford residents hand-on educational experience in microsurgical techniques. We present our experience with autologous reconstruction (deep inferior epigastric perforators, profunda artery perforator, lumbar artery perforator, bipedicled, and stacked) where a supervised trainee completed the microvascular anastomosis. METHODS: Retrospective chart review was performed on 413 flaps (190 patients) with microvascular anastomoses performed by postgraduate year (PGY)-4, PGY-5, PGY-6, PGY-7 (microsurgery fellow), or attending physician (AP). Comorbidities, intra-operative complications, revisions, operative time, ischemia time, return to operating room (OR), and flap losses were compared between training levels. RESULTS: Age and all comorbidities were equivalent between groups. Total operative time was highest for the AP group. Flap ischemia time, return to OR, and intraoperative complication were equivalent between groups. Percentage of flaps requiring at least one revision of the original anastomosis was significantly higher in PGY-4 and AP than in microsurgical fellows: PGY-4 (16%), PGY-5 (12%), PGY-6 (7%), PGY-7 (2.1%), and AP (16%), p = 0.041. Rates of flap loss were equivalent between groups, with overall flap loss between all groups 2/413 (<1%). CONCLUSION: With regard to flap loss and microsurgical vessel compromise, lower PGYs did not significantly worsen surgical outcomes for patients. AP had the longest total operative time, likely due to flap selection bias. PGY-4 and AP groups had higher rates of revision of original anastomosis compared with PGY-7, though ultimately these differences did not impact overall operative time, complication rate, or flap losses. Hands-on supervised microsurgical education appears to be both safe for patients, and also an effective way of building technical proficiency in plastic surgery residents.

Early Introduction of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 into Europe.

Early infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Europe were detected in travelers from Wuhan, China, in January 2020. In 1 tour group, 5 of 30 members were ill; 3 cases were laboratory confirmed. In addition, a healthcare worker was infected. This event documents early importation and subsequent spread of the virus in Europe.

Applying Machine Learning Models with An Ensemble Approach for Accurate Real-Time Influenza Forecasting in Taiwan: Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Changeful seasonal influenza activity in subtropical areas such as Taiwan causes problems in epidemic preparedness. The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control has maintained real-time national influenza surveillance systems since 2004. Except for timely monitoring, epidemic forecasting using the national influenza surveillance data can provide pivotal information for public health response. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop predictive models using machine learning to provide real-time influenza-like illness forecasts. METHODS: Using surveillance data of influenza-like illness visits from emergency departments (from the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance System), outpatient departments (from the National Health Insurance database), and the records of patients with severe influenza with complications (from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System), we developed 4 machine learning models (autoregressive integrated moving average, random forest, support vector regression, and extreme gradient boosting) to produce weekly influenza-like illness predictions for a given week and 3 subsequent weeks. We established a framework of the machine learning models and used an ensemble approach called stacking to integrate these predictions. We trained the models using historical data from 2008-2014. We evaluated their predictive ability during 2015-2017 for each of the 4-week time periods using Pearson correlation, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and hit rate of trend prediction. A dashboard website was built to visualize the forecasts, and the results of real-world implementation of this forecasting framework in 2018 were evaluated using the same metrics. RESULTS: All models could accurately predict the timing and magnitudes of the seasonal peaks in the then-current week (nowcast) (ρ=0.802-0.965; MAPE: 5.2%-9.2%; hit rate: 0.577-0.756), 1-week (ρ=0.803-0.918; MAPE: 8.3%-11.8%; hit rate: 0.643-0.747), 2-week (ρ=0.783-0.867; MAPE: 10.1%-15.3%; hit rate: 0.669-0.734), and 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.676-0.801; MAPE: 12.0%-18.9%; hit rate: 0.643-0.786), especially the ensemble model. In real-world implementation in 2018, the forecasting performance was still accurate in nowcasts (ρ=0.875-0.969; MAPE: 5.3%-8.0%; hit rate: 0.582-0.782) and remained satisfactory in 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.721-0.908; MAPE: 7.6%-13.5%; hit rate: 0.596-0.904). CONCLUSIONS: This machine learning and ensemble approach can make accurate, real-time influenza-like illness forecasts for a 4-week period, and thus, facilitate decision making.

On meta- and mega-analyses for gene-environment interactions.

Gene-by-environment (G × E) interactions are important in explaining the missing heritability and understanding the causation of complex diseases, but a single, moderately sized study often has limited statistical power to detect such interactions. With the increasing need for integrating data and reporting results from multiple collaborative studies or sites, debate over choice between mega- versus meta-analysis continues. In principle, data from different sites can be integrated at the individual level into a "mega" data set, which can be fit by a joint "mega-analysis." Alternatively, analyses can be done at each site, and results across sites can be combined through a "meta-analysis" procedure without integrating individual level data across sites. Although mega-analysis has been advocated in several recent initiatives, meta-analysis has the advantages of simplicity and feasibility, and has recently led to several important findings in identifying main genetic effects. In this paper, we conducted empirical and simulation studies, using data from a G × E study of lung cancer, to compare the mega- and meta-analyses in four commonly used G × E analyses under the scenario that the number of studies is small and sample sizes of individual studies are relatively large. We compared the two data integration approaches in the context of fixed effect models and random effects models separately. Our investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the differences between mega- and meta-analyses in practice of combining small number of studies in identifying G × E interactions.