Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa.

Continued uncontrolled transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in many parts of the world is creating conditions for substantial evolutionary changes to the virus1,2. Here we describe a newly arisen lineage of SARS-CoV-2 (designated 501Y.V2; also known as B.1.351 or 20H) that is defined by eight mutations in the spike protein, including three substitutions (K417N, E484K and N501Y) at residues in its receptor-binding domain that may have functional importance3-5. This lineage was identified in South Africa after the first wave of the epidemic in a severely affected metropolitan area (Nelson Mandela Bay) that is located on the coast of the Eastern Cape province. This lineage spread rapidly, and became dominant in Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces within weeks. Although the full import of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data-which show rapid expansion and displacement of other lineages in several regions-suggest that this lineage is associated with a selection advantage that most plausibly results from increased transmissibility or immune escape6-8.

EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks.

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.

Clonal Expansion of a Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotype 3 Capsule Variant Sequence Type 700 With Enhanced Vaccine Escape Potential After 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 remains a problem globally. Malawi introduced 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in 2011, but there has been no direct protection against serotype 3 carriage. We explored whether vaccine escape by serotype 3 is due to clonal expansion of a lineage with a competitive advantage. METHODS: The distribution of serotype 3 Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) and sequence types (STs) globally was assessed using sequences from the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing Project. Whole-genome sequences of 135 serotype 3 carriage isolates from Blantyre, Malawi (2015-2019) were analyzed. Comparative analysis of the capsule locus, entire genomes, antimicrobial resistance, and phylogenetic reconstructions were undertaken. Opsonophagocytosis was evaluated using serum samples from vaccinated adults and children. RESULTS: Serotype 3 GPSC10-ST700 isolates were most prominent in Malawi. Compared with the prototypical serotype 3 capsular polysaccharide locus sequence, 6 genes are absent, with retention of capsule polysaccharide biosynthesis. This lineage is characterized by increased antimicrobial resistance and lower susceptibility to opsonophagocytic killing. CONCLUSIONS: A serotype 3 variant in Malawi has genotypic and phenotypic characteristics that could enhance vaccine escape and clonal expansion after post-PCV13 introduction. Genomic surveillance among high-burden populations is essential to improve the effectiveness of next-generation pneumococcal vaccines.

North-south pathways, emerging variants, and high climate suitability characterize the recent spread of dengue virus serotypes 2 and 3 in the Dominican Republic.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever remains a significant public health challenge in tropical and subtropical regions, with its transmission dynamics being influenced by both environmental factors and human mobility. The Dominican Republic, a biodiversity hotspot in the Caribbean, has experienced recurrent dengue outbreaks, yet detailed understanding of the virus's transmission pathways and the impact of climatic factors remains limited. This study aims to elucidate the recent transmission dynamics of the dengue virus (DENV) in the Dominican Republic, utilizing a combination of genomic sequencing and epidemiological data analysis, alongside an examination of historical climate patterns. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive study involving the genomic sequencing of DENV samples collected from patients across different regions of the Dominican Republic over a two-year period. Phylogenetic analyses were performed to identify the circulation of DENV lineages and to trace transmission pathways. Epidemiological data were integrated to analyze trends in dengue incidence and distribution. Additionally, we integrated historical climate data spanning several decades to assess trends in temperature and their potential impact on DENV transmission potential. RESULTS: Our results highlight a previously unknown north-south transmission pathway within the country, with the co-circulation of multiple virus lineages. Additionally, we examine the historical climate data, revealing long-term trends towards higher theoretical potential for dengue transmission due to rising temperatures. CONCLUSION: This multidisciplinary study reveals intricate patterns of dengue virus transmission in the Dominican Republic, characterized by the co-circulation of multiple DENV lineages and a novel transmission pathway. The observed correlation between rising temperatures and increased dengue transmission potential emphasizes the need for integrated climate-informed strategies in dengue control efforts. Our findings offer critical insights for public health authorities in the Dominican Republic and similar settings, guiding resource allocation and the development of preparedness strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on dengue transmission.

Rapid Epidemic Expansion of Chikungunya Virus East/Central/South African Lineage, Paraguay.

The spread of Chikungunya virus is a major public health concern in the Americas. There were >120,000 cases and 51 deaths in 2023, of which 46 occurred in Paraguay. Using a suite of genomic, phylodynamic, and epidemiologic techniques, we characterized the ongoing large chikungunya epidemic in Paraguay.

Spacer Domain in Hepatitis B Virus Polymerase: Plugging a Hole or Performing a Role?

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) polymerase is divided into terminal protein, spacer, reverse transcriptase, and RNase domains. Spacer has previously been considered dispensable, merely acting as a tether between other domains or providing plasticity to accommodate deletions and mutations. We explore evidence for the role of spacer sequence, structure, and function in HBV evolution and lineage, consider its associations with escape from drugs, vaccines, and immune responses, and review its potential impacts on disease outcomes.

Malaria hospitalisation in East Africa: age, phenotype and transmission intensity.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity. METHODS: Clinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models. RESULTS: 52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Endoscopic treatment of spondylodiscitis: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Spondylodiscitis is a severe condition where standalone antibiotic therapy resolves most cases. In refractory infections, open surgery may aid with infection debulking. However, significant morbidity can occur. Nowadays, endoscopic approaches are emerging as an alternative. However, until now, only small-scale studies exist. Being so, we carried the first systematic review on spondylodiscitis endoscopic debridement indications, technique details, and outcomes. METHODS: Search for all English written original studies approaching the spondylodiscitis endoscopic treatment was performed using PubMed and EBSCO host. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed, and a pre-specified protocol was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42020183657). RESULTS: Fourteen studies involving 342 participants were included for analysis. Data overall quality was fair. Indications for the endoscopic approach were poorly defined. The most consensual indication was refractory infection to conservative treatment. Spinal instability or neurological deficits were common exclusion criteria. All authors described similar techniques, and despite the frequent severe co-morbidities, procedure morbidity was low. Re-interventions were common. Microorganism identification varied from 54.2 to 90.4%. Treatment failure among studies ranged from 0 to 33%. Pain, functional status, and neurological deficits had satisfactory improvement after procedures. CONCLUSIONS: The endoscopic debridement of spondylodiscitis seems to be an effective and safe approach for refractory spondylodiscitis. A novel approach with initial endoscopic infection debulking and antibiotic therapy could improve the success of spondylodiscitis treatment.

Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. RESULTS: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa.

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

Genomic surveillance activities unveil the introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.525 variant of interest in Brazil: Case report.

The appearance of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 has recently challenged public health authorities with respect to tracking transmission and mitigating the impact in the evolving pandemic across countries. B.1.525 is considered a variant under investigation since it carries specific genetic signatures present in P.1, B.1.1.7, and B.1.351. Here we report genomic evidence of the first likely imported case of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.525 variant, isolated in a traveler returning from Nigeria.

Vaccination can drive an increase in frequencies of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

The bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major public health concern, being responsible for more than 1.5 million deaths annually through pneumonia, meningitis, and septicemia. Available vaccines target only a subset of serotypes, so vaccination is often accompanied by a rise in the frequency of nonvaccine serotypes. Epidemiological studies suggest that such a change in serotype frequencies is often coupled with an increase of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes. Building on previous multilocus models for bacterial pathogen population structure, we have developed a theoretical framework incorporating variation of serotype and antibiotic resistance to examine how their associations may be affected by vaccination. Using this framework, we find that vaccination can result in a rapid increase in the frequency of preexisting resistant variants of nonvaccine serotypes due to the removal of competition from vaccine serotypes.

Hepatitis B virus seroepidemiology data for Africa: Modelling intervention strategies based on a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: International Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection set ambitious targets for 2030. In African populations, infant immunisation has been fundamental to reducing incident infections in children, but overall population prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection remains high. In high-prevalence populations, adult catch-up vaccination has sometimes been deployed, but an alternative Test and Treat (T&T) approach could be used as an intervention to interrupt transmission. Universal T&T has not been previously evaluated as a population intervention for HBV infection, despite high-profile data supporting its success with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We set out to investigate the relationship between prevalence of HBV infection and exposure in Africa, undertaking a systematic literature review in November 2019. We identified published seroepidemiology data representing the period 1995-2019 from PubMed and Web of Science, including studies of adults that reported prevalence of both hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg; prevalence of HBV infection) and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc; prevalence of HBV exposure). We identified 96 studies representing 39 African countries, with a median cohort size of 370 participants and a median participant age of 34 years. Using weighted linear regression analysis, we found a strong relationship between the prevalence of infection (HBsAg) and exposure (anti-HBc) (R2 = 0.45, p < 0.001). Region-specific differences were present, with estimated CHB prevalence in Northern Africa typically 30% to 40% lower (p = 0.007) than in Southern Africa for statistically similar exposure rates, demonstrating the need for intervention strategies to be tailored to individual settings. We applied a previously published mathematical model to investigate the effect of interventions in a high-prevalence setting. The most marked and sustained impact was projected with a T&T strategy, with a predicted reduction of 33% prevalence by 20 years (95% CI 30%-37%) and 62% at 50 years (95% CI 57%-68%), followed by routine neonatal vaccination and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT; at 100% coverage). In contrast, the impact of catch-up vaccination in adults had a negligible and transient effect on population prevalence. The study is constrained by gaps in the published data, such that we could not model the impact of antiviral therapy based on stratification by specific clinical criteria and our model framework does not include explicit age-specific or risk-group assumptions regarding force of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The unique data set collected in this study highlights how regional epidemiology data for HBV can provide insights into patterns of transmission, and it provides an evidence base for future quantitative research into the most effective local interventions. In combination with robust neonatal immunisation programmes, ongoing PMTCT efforts, and the vaccination of high-risk groups, diagnosing and treating HBV infection is likely to be of most impact in driving advances towards elimination targets at a population level.

Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index.

BackgroundClimate is a major factor in the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), a pathogen increasingly pervasive worldwide. Cases increased during 2018 in Israel, the United States and Europe.AimWe set to retrospectively understand the spatial and temporal determinants of WNV transmission in Israel, as a case study for the possible effects of climate on virus spread.MethodsWe employed a suitability index to WNV, parameterising it with prior knowledge pertaining to a bird reservoir and Culex species, using local time series of temperature and humidity as inputs. The predicted suitability index was compared with confirmed WNV cases in Israel (2016-2018).ResultsThe suitability index was highly associated with WNV cases in Israel, with correlation coefficients of 0.91 (p value = 4 × 10- 5), 0.68 (p = 0.016) and 0.9 (p = 2 × 10- 4) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. The fluctuations in the number of WNV cases between the years were explained by higher area under the index curve. A new WNV seasonal mode was identified in the south-east of Israel, along the Great Rift Valley, characterised by two yearly peaks (spring and autumn), distinct from the already known single summer peak in the rest of Israel.ConclusionsBy producing a detailed geotemporal estimate of transmission potential and its determinants in Israel, our study promotes a better understanding of WNV epidemiology and has the potential to inform future public health responses. The proposed approach further provides opportunities for retrospective and prospective mechanistic modelling of WNV epidemiology and its associated climatic drivers.

Estimating the false-negative test probability of SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR.

BackgroundReverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR) assays are used to test for infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. RT-PCR tests are highly specific and the probability of false positives is low, but false negatives are possible depending on swab type and time since symptom onset.AimTo determine how the probability of obtaining a false-negative test in infected patients is affected by time since symptom onset and swab type.MethodsWe used generalised additive mixed models to analyse publicly available data from patients who received multiple RT-PCR tests and were identified as SARS-CoV-2 positive at least once.ResultsThe probability of a positive test decreased with time since symptom onset, with oropharyngeal (OP) samples less likely to yield a positive result than nasopharyngeal (NP) samples. The probability of incorrectly identifying an uninfected individual due to a false-negative test was considerably reduced if negative tests were repeated 24 hours later. For a small false-positive test probability (<0.5%), the true number of infected individuals was larger than the number of positive tests. For a higher false-positive test probability, the true number of infected individuals was smaller than the number of positive tests.ConclusionNP samples are more sensitive than OP samples. The later an infected individual is tested after symptom onset, the less likely they are to test positive. This has implications for identifying infected patients, contact tracing and discharging convalescing patients who are potentially still infectious.

Detection of neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 to determine population exposure in Scottish blood donors between March and May 2020.

BackgroundThe progression and geographical distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere is unknown because typically only symptomatic individuals are diagnosed. We performed a serological study of blood donors in Scotland in the spring of 2020 to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 as a marker of past infection and epidemic progression.AimOur objective was to determine if sera from blood bank donors can be used to track the emergence and progression of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.MethodsA pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay was used to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The study comprised samples from 3,500 blood donors collected in Scotland between 17 March and 18 May 2020. Controls were collected from 100 donors in Scotland during 2019.ResultsAll samples collected on 17 March 2020 (n = 500) were negative in the pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay. Neutralising antibodies were detected in six of 500 donors from 23 to 26 March. The number of samples containing neutralising antibodies did not significantly rise after 5-6 April until the end of the study on 18 May. We found that infections were concentrated in certain postcodes, indicating that outbreaks of infection were extremely localised. In contrast, other areas remained comparatively untouched by the epidemic.ConclusionAlthough blood donors are not representative of the overall population, we demonstrated that serosurveys of blood banks can serve as a useful tool for tracking the emergence and progression of an epidemic such as the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

HBV vaccination and PMTCT as elimination tools in the presence of HIV: insights from a clinical cohort and dynamic model.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goals set a challenge for the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as a public health concern by the year 2030. Deployment of a robust prophylactic vaccine and enhanced interventions for prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) are cornerstones of elimination strategy. However, in light of the estimated global burden of 290 million cases, enhanced efforts are required to underpin optimisation of public health strategy. Robust analysis of population epidemiology is particularly crucial for populations in Africa made vulnerable by HIV co-infection, poverty, stigma and poor access to prevention, diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: We here set out to evaluate the current and future role of HBV vaccination and PMTCT as tools for elimination. We first investigated the current impact of paediatric vaccination in a cohort of children with and without HIV infection in Kimberley, South Africa. Second, we used these data to inform a new parsimonious model to simulate the ongoing impact of preventive interventions. By applying these two approaches in parallel, we are able to determine both the current impact of interventions, and the future projected outcome of ongoing preventive strategies over time. RESULTS: Existing efforts have been successful in reducing paediatric prevalence of HBV infection in this setting to < 1%, demonstrating the success of the existing vaccine campaign. Our model predicts that, if consistently deployed, combination efforts of vaccination and PMTCT can significantly reduce population prevalence (HBsAg) by 2030, such that a major public health impact is possible even without achieving elimination. However, the prevalence of HBV e-antigen (HBeAg)-positive carriers will decline more slowly, representing a persistent population reservoir. We show that HIV co-infection significantly reduces titres of vaccine-mediated antibody, but has a relatively minor role in influencing the projected time to elimination. Our model can also be applied to other settings in order to predict impact and time to elimination based on specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Through extensive deployment of preventive strategies for HBV, significant positive public health impact is possible, although time to HBV elimination as a public health concern is likely to be substantially longer than that proposed by current goals.

Spread of Chikungunya Virus East/Central/South African Genotype in Northeast Brazil.

We investigated an outbreak of exanthematous illness in Maceió by using molecular surveillance; 76% of samples tested positive for chikungunya virus. Genetic analysis of 23 newly generated genomes identified the East/Central/South African genotype, suggesting that this lineage has persisted since mid-2014 in Brazil and may spread in the Americas and beyond.

Vaccination Drives Changes in Metabolic and Virulence Profiles of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

The bacterial pathogen, Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus), is a leading cause of life-threatening illness and death worldwide. Available conjugate vaccines target only a small subset (up to 13) of >90 known capsular serotypes of S. pneumoniae and, since their introduction, increases in non-vaccine serotypes have been recorded in several countries: a phenomenon termed Vaccine Induced Serotype Replacement (VISR). Here, using a combination of mathematical modelling and whole genome analysis, we show that targeting particular serotypes through vaccination can also cause their metabolic and virulence-associated components to transfer through recombination to non-vaccine serotypes: a phenomenon we term Vaccine-Induced Metabolic Shift (VIMS). Our results provide a novel explanation for changes observed in the population structure of the pneumococcus following vaccination, and have important implications for strain-targeted vaccination in a range of infectious disease systems.