Estimating the environmental impacts of 57,000 food products.

Understanding and communicating the environmental impacts of food products is key to enabling transitions to environmentally sustainable food systems [El Bilali and Allahyari, Inf. Process. Agric. 5, 456-464 (2018)]. While previous analyses compared the impacts of food commodities such as fruits, wheat, and beef [Poore and Nemecek, Science 360, 987-992 (2018)], most food products contain numerous ingredients. However, because the amount of each ingredient in a product is often known only by the manufacturer, it has been difficult to assess their environmental impacts. Here, we develop an approach to overcome this limitation. It uses prior knowledge from ingredient lists to infer the composition of each ingredient, and then pairs this with environmental databases [Poore and Nemecek Science 360, 987-992 (2018); Gephart et al., Nature 597, 360-365 (2021)] to derive estimates of a food product's environmental impact across four indicators: greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water stress, and eutrophication potential. Using the approach on 57,000 products in the United Kingdom and Ireland shows food types have low (e.g., sugary beverages, fruits, breads), to intermediate (e.g., many desserts, pastries), to high environmental impacts (e.g., meat, fish, cheese). Incorporating NutriScore reveals more nutritious products are often more environmentally sustainable but there are exceptions to this trend, and foods consumers may view as substitutable can have markedly different impacts. Sensitivity analyses indicate the approach is robust to uncertainty in ingredient composition and in most cases sourcing. This approach provides a step toward enabling consumers, retailers, and policy makers to make informed decisions on the environmental impacts of food products.

Assessing the impact of energy and fuel poverty on health: a European scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The burden of energy and fuel poverty (EFP) in Europe is increasing in the face of the cost-of-living crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the climate emergency. While the health impacts of EFP are often the driving reason for addressing it, EFP's association with health is poorly delineated. This review aims to scope the evidence of EFP's association with health in Europe. METHODS: A scoping review based on Arksey and O'Malley's framework was conducted using search terms relevant to EFP, health and Europe. Five databases were searched, in addition to hand searching. Review selection was performed by two independent reviewers, and articles were thematically analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-five articles published between January 2000 and March 2022 were included. The literature varied in definitions and measurements of EFP and in the health indicators examined. The review revealed a negative association between EFP and health, specifically, general unspecified poor health (9 articles), excess winter mortality (3 articles), communicable diseases (3 articles), non-communicable diseases (11 articles), mental health (15 articles) and well-being (12 articles). While women were reported to be at a higher risk of EFP than men, children and older adults were identified as particularly vulnerable to EFP's adverse health repercussions. CONCLUSIONS: This scoping review illustrates a significant and complex association between EFP and various domains of health. Though heterogeneity across research makes it difficult to compare findings, our review supports the use of health as a justification to address EFP and urges public health to be more involved in EFP mitigation.

Effect of different food groups on energy intake within and between individuals.

PURPOSE: Energy intake varies day-to-day because we select different foods, and different amounts of these foods. Energy balance is not tightly regulated over the short-term, and the variability in diet results in an energy surplus or deficit. The aim of this study was to explore how consuming more, or less, than usual amounts of foods contributed towards balancing of total energy intake (TEI) within a day. METHODS: Four-day food records came from 6155 adult participants of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey to study these effects. Within-individual regression models of the energy from 60 food groups on TEI were calculated. Energy intake variation within-individuals was regressed separately on the variation in amounts of each food group. Regression models were also fitted to individual four day means. RESULTS: Within-individual coefficients ranged from about 0 for high-fibre breakfast cereals to 1.7 for sugar preserves and spreads. Three food groups (e.g. low-calorie soft drinks) tended to reduce TEI, and 13 food groups (e.g. margarine and other spreads, and alcoholic drinks) tended to elevate TEI above the energy content of the food group when more than usual amounts were consumed. Foods groups of higher energy densities, or lower fibre content (e.g. typical "snack" foods, low-fibre bread, and processed meat) tended to promote greater TEI more so than did food groups of lower energy densities (e.g. meat, fish, high-fibre foods, and potatoes). CONCLUSION: Different food groups vary considerably in the extent to which they affect TEI in free-living adults. The associations between consuming more, or less, than usual amounts of foods and the effects on TEI are consistent with those found in laboratory studies. Importantly, the present study found similar associations, but using a different methodology and in observational data, providing novel information on energy intake compensation.

Modelling population responses to workplace minimum dietary standards introduced as workers return after social lockdowns.

BACKGROUND: Diet norms are the shared social behaviours and beliefs about diets. In many societies, including the UK, these norms are typically linked to unhealthy diets and impede efforts to improve food choices. Social interactions that could influence one another's food choices, were highly disrupted during the lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. A return to workplaces and re-establishment of eating networks may present an opportunity to influence dietary norms by introducing minimum dietary standards to in workplaces, which could then spread through wider home and workplace networks. METHODS: An agent-based model was constructed to simulate a society reflecting the structure of a city population (1000 households) to explore changes in personal and social diet-related norms. The model tracked individual meal choices as agents interact in home, work or school settings and recorded changes in diet quality (range 1 to 100). Scenarios were run to compare individuals' diet quality with the introduction of minimum dietary standards with degrees of working from home. RESULTS: The more people mixed at work the greater the impact of minimum standards on improving diet norms. Socially isolated households remained unaffected by minimum standards, whereas household members exposed directly, in workplaces or schools, or indirectly, influenced by others in the household, had a large and linear increase in diet quality in relation to minimum standards (0.48 [95% CI 0.34, 0.62] per unit increase in minimum standards). Since individuals regressed to the new population mean, a small proportion of diets decreased toward lower population norms. The degree of return to work influenced the rate and magnitude of change cross the population (-2.4 points [-2.40, -2.34] in mean diet quality per 20% of workers isolating). CONCLUSIONS: These model results illustrate the qualitative impact social connectivity could have on changing diets through interventions. Norms can be changed more in a more connected population, and social interactions spread norms between contexts and amplified the influence of, for example, workplace minimum standards beyond those directly exposed. However, implementation of minimum standards in a single type of setting would not reach the whole population and in some cases may decrease diet quality. Any non-zero standard could yield improvements beyond the immediate adult workforce and this could spill between social contexts, but would be contingent on population connectivity.

Self-reported food intake decreases over recording period in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey.

From 2008, the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) changed the method of dietary data collection from a 7-d weighed diary to a 4-d unweighed diary, partly to reduce participant burden. This study aimed to test whether self-reported energy intake changed significantly over the 4-d recording period of the NDNS rolling programme. Analyses used data from the NDNS years 1 (2008/2009) to 8 (2015/2016) inclusive, from participants aged 13 years and older. Dietary records from participants who reported unusual amounts of food and drink consumed on one or more days were excluded, leaving 6932 participants. Mean daily energy intake was 7107 kJ (1698 kcal), and there was a significant decrease of 164 kJ (39 kcal) between days 1 and 4 (P < 0·001). There was no significant interaction of sex or low-energy reporter status (estimated from the ratio of reported energy intake:BMR) with the change in reported energy intake. The decrease in reported energy intake on day 4 compared with day 1 was greater (P < 0·019) for adults with higher BMI (>30 kg/m2) than it was for leaner adults. Reported energy intake decreased over the 4-d recording period of the NDNS rolling programme suggesting that participants change their diet more, or report less completely, with successive days of recording their diet. The size of the effect was relatively minor, however.

Association between hours worked in paid employment and diet quality, frequency of eating out and consuming takeaways in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between hours worked and diet quality, frequency of eating out and consuming takeaways. DESIGN: Data were taken from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2014). Associations between hours worked in paid employment and diet quality, assessed using the Diet Quality Index (DQI) and selected foods and nutrients, were tested using linear regression models. Associations between hours worked and frequency of eating out and consuming takeaways were tested using ordinal logistic regression models. All models were adjusted for sex, age, equivalised household income, household composition and household food role. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (n 2154) aged 19-64 years in employment. RESULTS: Mean (95 % CI) hours worked per week was 36·1 (35·6, 36·6) and mean DQI score was 41·9 (41·2, 42·5) %. Hours worked was not associated with DQI score, frequency of eating out or consuming takeaways. Hours worked was positively associated with consuming red meat, processed meat and alcohol intake. Adults working more hours had lower intake of fibre but higher total fat and saturated fat intakes if they lived in households with children. CONCLUSIONS: Working hours may not be the main factor driving poor-quality diets among this sample of UK adults in employment. Focusing on consumption of foods prepared outside the household may not be the most efficient way to improve diet quality as effort is needed at all levels. Although it is unclear what is driving the differences in nutrient intakes according to household composition, they are important to consider when developing interventions to improve healthy eating.

Healthy and sustainable diets that meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and are affordable for different income groups in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To model dietary changes required to shift the UK population to diets that meet dietary recommendations for health, have lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and are affordable for different income groups. DESIGN: Linear programming was used to create diets that meet dietary requirements for health and reduced GHGE (57 and 80 % targets) by income quintile, taking account of food budgets and foods currently purchased, thereby keeping dietary change to a minimum.Setting/ParticipantsNutrient composition, GHGE and price data were mapped to 101 food groups in household food purchase data (UK Living Cost and Food Survey (2013), 5144 households). RESULTS: Current diets of all income quintiles had similar total GHGE, but the source of GHGE differed by types of meat and amount of fruit and vegetables. It was possible to create diets with a 57 % reduction in GHGE that met dietary and cost restraints in all income groups. In the optimised diets, the food sources of GHGE differed by income group due to the cost and keeping the level of deviation from current diets to a minimum. Broadly, the changes needed were similar across all groups; reducing animal-based products and increasing plant-based foods but varied by specific foods. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy and lower-GHGE diets could be created in all income quintiles but tailoring changes to income groups to minimise deviation may make dietary changes more achievable. Specific attention must be given to make interventions and policies appropriate for all income groups.

Effect of increasing fruit and vegetable intake by dietary intervention on nutritional biomarkers and attitudes to dietary change: a randomised trial.

PURPOSE: Low fruit and vegetable consumption is linked with an increased risk of death from vascular disease and cancer. The benefit of eating fruits and vegetables is attributed in part to antioxidants, vitamins and phytochemicals. Whether increasing intake impacts on markers of disease remains to be established. This study investigates whether increasing daily intake of fruits, vegetables and juices from low (approx. 3 portions), to high intakes (approx. 8 portions) impacts on nutritional and clinical biomarkers. Barriers to achieving the recommended fruit and vegetable intakes are also investigated. METHOD: In a randomised clinical trial, the participants [19 men and 26 women (39-58 years)] with low reported fruit, juice and vegetable intake (<3 portions/day) were randomised to consume either their usual diet or a diet supplemented with an additional 480 g of fruit and vegetables and fruit juice (300 ml) daily for 12 weeks. Nutritional biomarkers (vitamin C, carotenoids, B vitamins), antioxidant capacity and genomic stability were measured pre-intervention, at 4-, 8- and 12 weeks throughout the intervention. Samples were also taken post-intervention after a 6-week washout period. Glucose, homocysteine, lipids, blood pressure, weight and arterial stiffness were also measured. Intake of fruit, fruit juice and vegetables was reassessed 12 months after conducting the study and a questionnaire was developed to identify barriers to healthy eating. RESULTS: Intake increased significantly in the intervention group compared to controls, achieving 8.4 portions/day after 12 weeks. Plasma vitamin C (35%), folate (15%) and certain carotenoids [α-carotene (50%) and ß-carotene (70%) and lutein/zeaxanthin (70%)] were significantly increased (P < 0.05) in the intervention group. There were no significant changes in antioxidant capacity, DNA damage and markers of vascular health. Barriers to achieving recommended intakes of fruits and vegetables measured 12 months after the intervention period were amount, inconvenience and cost. CONCLUSION: While increasing fruit, juice and vegetable consumption increases circulating level of beneficial nutrients in healthy subjects, a 12-week intervention was not associated with effects on antioxidant status or lymphocyte DNA damage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered at Controlled-Trials.com; registration ISRCTN71368072.

Buying less and wasting less food. Changes in household food energy purchases, energy intakes and energy density between 2007 and 2012 with and without adjustment for food waste.

OBJECTIVE: Consumers in the UK responded to the rapid increases in food prices between 2007 and 2009 partly by reducing the amount of food energy bought. Household food and drink waste has also decreased since 2007. The present study explored the combined effects of reductions in food purchases and waste on estimated food energy intakes and dietary energy density. DESIGN: The amount of food energy purchased per adult equivalent was calculated from Kantar Worldpanel household food and drink purchase data for 2007 and 2012. Food energy intakes were estimated by adjusting purchase data for food and drink waste, using waste factors specific to the two years and scaled for household size. SETTING: Scotland. SUBJECTS: Households in Scotland (n 2657 in 2007; n 2841 in 2012). RESULTS: The amount of food energy purchased decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 8·6 to 8·2 MJ/adult equivalent per d (P<0·001). After accounting for the decrease in food waste, estimated food energy intake was not significantly different (7·3 and 7·2 MJ/adult equivalent per d for 2007 and 2012, respectively; P=0·186). Energy density of foods purchased increased slightly from 700 to 706 kJ/100 g (P=0·010). CONCLUSIONS: While consumers in Scotland reduced the amount of food energy that they purchased between 2007 and 2012, this was balanced by reductions in household food and drink waste over the same time, resulting in no significant change in net estimated energy intake of foods brought into the home.

Socio-economic differences in diet, physical activity and leisure-time screen use among Scottish children in 2006 and 2010: are we closing the gap?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate socio-economic differences in children's diet, activity and inactivity and changes in these differences over 4 years during which new policies on food in schools were introduced. DESIGN: Two cross-sectional surveys in which diet was assessed by FFQ and physical activity and inactivity were assessed by interviewer-administered questionnaire. Socio-economic status was assessed by the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. SETTING: Scotland, 2006 and 2010. SUBJECTS: Children aged 3-17 years (n 1700 in 2006, n 1906 in 2010). RESULTS: In both surveys there were significant linear associations between socio-economic deprivation and intakes of energy, non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) as a percentage of food energy, sugar-sweetened beverages, confectionery, crisps and savoury snacks and leisure-time screen use (all higher among children in more deprived areas), while intakes of fruit, fruit juice and vegetables showed the opposite trend. In 2010 children in more deprived areas engaged in more physical activity out of school than those in more affluent areas, but between 2006 and 2010 there was an overall reduction in physical activity out of school. There were also small but statistically significant overall reductions in intakes of confectionery, crisps and savoury snacks, energy and NMES and saturated fat as a percentage of food energy, but no statistically significant change in socio-economic gradients in diet or activity between the two surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to improve diet and physical activity in children in Scotland need to be designed so as to be effective in all socio-economic groups.

Dietary patterns and non-communicable disease risk in Indian adults: secondary analysis of Indian Migration Study data.

OBJECTIVE: Undernutrition and non-communicable disease (NCD) are important public health issues in India, yet their relationship with dietary patterns is poorly understood. The current study identified distinct dietary patterns and their association with micronutrient undernutrition (Ca, Fe, Zn) and NCD risk factors (underweight, obesity, waist:hip ratio, hypertension, total:HDL cholesterol, diabetes). DESIGN: Data were from the cross-sectional Indian Migration Study, including semi-quantitative FFQ. Distinct dietary patterns were identified using finite mixture modelling; associations with NCD risk factors were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression models. SETTING: India. SUBJECTS: Migrant factory workers, their rural-dwelling siblings and urban non-migrants. Participants (7067 adults) resided mainly in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. RESULTS: Five distinct, regionally distributed, dietary patterns were identified, with rice-based patterns in the south and wheat-based patterns in the north-west. A rice-based pattern characterised by low energy consumption and dietary diversity ('Rice & low diversity') was consumed predominantly by adults with little formal education in rural settings, while a rice-based pattern with high fruit consumption ('Rice & fruit') was consumed by more educated adults in urban settings. Dietary patterns met WHO macronutrient recommendations, but some had low micronutrient contents. Dietary pattern membership was associated with several NCD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Five distinct dietary patterns were identified, supporting sub-national assessments of the implications of dietary patterns for various health, food system or environment outcomes.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.

Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO2eq kg-1 rice, 45.54 kg CO2eq kg-1 mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO2eq kg-1 milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with <1 kg CO2eq kg-1 product. These findings suggest that a shift towards dietary patterns with greater consumption of animal source foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.

Achieving dietary recommendations and reducing greenhouse gas emissions: modelling diets to minimise the change from current intakes.

BACKGROUND: Average population dietary intakes do not reflect the wide diversity of dietary patterns across the population. It is recognised that most people in the UK do not meet dietary recommendations and have diets with a high environmental impact, but changing dietary habits has proved very difficult. The purpose of this study was to investigate the diversity in dietary changes needed to achieve a healthy diet and a healthy diet with lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) (referred to as a sustainable diet) by taking into account each individual's current diet and then minimising the changes they need to make. METHODS: Linear programming was used to construct two new diets for each adult in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (n = 1491) by minimising the changes to their current intake. Stepwise changes were applied until (i) dietary recommendations were achieved and (ii) dietary recommendations and a GHGE target were met. First, gradual changes (≤50%) were made to the amount of any foods currently eaten. Second, new foods were added to the diet. Third, greater reductions (≤75%) were made to the amount of any food currently eaten and finally, foods were removed from the diet. RESULTS: One person out of 1491 in the sample met all the dietary requirements based on their reported dietary intake. Only 7.5 and 4.6 % of people achieved a healthy diet and a sustainable diet, respectively, by changing the amount of any food they currently ate by up to 50 %. The majority required changes to the amount of each food eaten plus the addition of new foods. Fewer than 5 % had to remove foods they ate to meet recommendations. Sodium proved the most difficult nutrient recommendation to meet. The healthy diets and sustainable diets produced a 15 and 27 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Since healthy diets alone do not produce substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, dietary guidelines need to include recommendations for environmental sustainability. Minimising the shift from current dietary intakes is likely to make dietary change more realistic and achievable.

Eating like there's no tomorrow: Public awareness of the environmental impact of food and reluctance to eat less meat as part of a sustainable diet.

Reducing meat consumption is central to many of the scientific debates on healthy, sustainable diets because of the high environmental impact of meat production. Missing from these debates are the public perspectives about eating less meat and consideration of cultural and social values associated with meat. The aim of this study was to explore public awareness of the environmental impact of food and their willingness to reduce meat consumption. Twelve focus groups and four individual interviews were conducted with adults from a range of socio-economic groups living in both rural and urban settings in Scotland. Public understanding of the link between food, environment and climate change was explored, with a focus on meat and attitudes towards reducing meat consumption. Data were transcribed and analysed thematically. Three dominant themes emerged: a lack of awareness of the association between meat consumption and climate change, perceptions of personal meat consumption playing a minimal role in the global context of climate change, and resistance to the idea of reducing personal meat consumption. People associated eating meat with pleasure, and described social, personal and cultural values around eating meat. Some people felt they did not need to eat less meat because they had already reduced their consumption or that they only ate small quantities. Scepticism of scientific evidence linking meat and climate change was common. Changing non-food related behaviours was viewed as more acceptable and a greater priority for climate change mitigation. The study highlights the role meat plays in the diet for many people, beyond nutritional needs. If healthy, sustainable dietary habits are to be achieved, cultural, social and personal values around eating meat must be integrated into the development of future dietary recommendations.

Food and drink purchasing habits out of school at lunchtime: a national survey of secondary school pupils in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Food and drink purchasing habits of pupils out of school at lunchtime may be contributing to poor dietary intakes and overweight and obesity. The aim of this study was to identify the places from which purchases were made, types of food and drinks purchased and, the reasons for purchasing food or drinks out of school. METHODS: A survey of the food and drinks purchasing habits of secondary school pupils (11-16 yrs) out of school at lunchtime was conducted in Scotland in 2010. A face-to-face interview and a self-completion questionnaire was designed to identify the food outlets used at lunchtime, types of food and drinks purchased and pupils' reasons for purchasing food or drinks out of school. Height and weight were measured and BMI centiles used to classify pupils as normal weight, overweight or obese. Results were compared by age group, sex, BMI group and level of socio-economic deprivation. RESULTS: Of the 612 pupils who completed the survey, 97 % reported having access to places selling food or drinks out of school at lunchtime, and of these 63 % made purchases. A higher proportion of pupils from more deprived areas reported purchasing food or drinks out of school, but the proportion making purchases did not differ significantly by sex or BMI group. Supermarkets were the outlets from which pupils reported most often making purchases, with fewer purchasing food or drinks from fast food takeaways, and this did not differ significantly by socio-economic deprivation. Reasons for making purchases included availability of preferred food and drinks, some of which are restricted for sale in schools, and social reasons, such as wanting to be with friends. Sandwiches and non-diet soft drinks were items most commonly purchased, followed by confectionery and diet soft drinks. However, less than 10 % of all the secondary school pupils reported purchasing these foods every day. CONCLUSIONS: Supermarkets, not just fast food outlets, should be considered when developing strategies to improve the dietary habits of pupils at lunchtime. The importance of food preferences and social reasons for purchasing food and drinks need to be acknowledged and integrated in future interventions.

Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.

Improving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate-food-emissions modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.

Evolution of energy and nutrient supply in Zambia (1961-2013) in the context of policy, political, social, economic, and climatic changes.

An adequate supply of energy, micronutrients and macronutrients is essential to achieve food and nutrition security to prevent malnutrition. Socio-economic, political, and climatic events, however, can affect the supply of food and nutrients. We assessed country-level supply trends of food and nutrients and their sources within the context of policy changes and political, socio-economic and climatic events from 1961 to 2013 in Zambia. Due to the lack of national food consumption data, food supply data from the FAO food balance sheets, matched to food composition tables, were used to estimate the energy, macronutrient and micronutrient content of 264 food items available to Zambia. We calculated historical nutrient supplies based on demographic characteristics and population-level dietary requirements. Results showed that Zambia was nutrition insecure from 1961 to 2013 for key micronutrients vitamin A, folate, riboflavin, vitamin B12, calcium, zinc, iron, and energy-deficient from the late-1980s. The diet has not substantially changed over time, with maize being the dominant food source. However, refined energy-dense food has steadily increased in the diet coupled with a reduction in fibre. These nutrient supply and dietary pattern trends coincide with specific socio-economic, policy, political, and climatic events from the 1970s to the early-mid 2000s, such as population growth, maize subsidy and crop diversification policies, regime change and drought. This study shows how policy, political and climatic events have been central features shaping nutrient supplies and the consequences for nutrition security. The study provides a context to inform future food policies to improve food and nutrition security. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01329-1.

Developing a timeline for evaluating public health nutrition policy interventions. What are the outcomes and when should we expect to see them?

OBJECTIVE: To develop a timeline for evaluating public health nutrition policy interventions. DESIGN: Concept mapping, a stakeholder-driven approach for developing an evaluation framework to estimate the 'time to impact' for policy interventions. The Schools (Health Promotion and Nutrition) (Scotland) Act 2007 was used as the model to develop the evaluation timeline as it had typical characteristics of government policy. Concept mapping requires stakeholders to generate a list of the potential outcomes, sort and rate the outcomes. Multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster data analysis were used to develop an anticipated timeline to impact for the policy. SETTING: United Kingdom. SUBJECTS: One hundred and eleven stakeholders representing nutrition, public health, medicine, education and catering in a range of sectors: research, policy, local government, National Health Service and schools. RESULTS: Eighty-five possible outcomes were identified and grouped into thirteen clusters describing higher-level themes (e.g. long-term health, food literacy, economics, behaviour, diet, education). Negative and unintended consequences were anticipated relatively soon after implementation of the policy, whereas positive outcomes (e.g. dietary changes, health benefits) were thought likely to take longer to emerge. Stakeholders responsible for implementing the legislation anticipated that it would take longer to observe changes than those from policy or research. CONCLUSIONS: Developing an anticipated timeline provides a realistic framework upon which to base an outcome evaluation for policy interventions and identifies positive and negative outcomes as well as considering possible unintended consequences. It offers benefit to both policy makers and researchers in mapping the progress expected towards long-term health goals and outcomes.

Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model.

This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients. Preliminary results show that global trade improves the food and nutrition security of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Trade also promotes a healthier and more balanced diet, as countries have access to an increased variety of food. The effect of trade in enhancing nutrition security, with an adequate supply of macro and micronutrients, is universal across nutrients and countries. As researchers call for a holistic and multifactorial approach to food security and climate change (Hammond and Dubé 2012 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 12 356-12 363. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0913003109)), the paper is one of the first to develop an integrated framework that consists of socio-economic, geopolitical, nutrition, environmental and agri-food systems to tackle these global challenges. Given the ongoing events of Brexit, the US-China trade war and the global COVID-19 pandemic, the paper will provide valuable insights on the role of trade in improving the food and nutrition security across countries.