Genome-Scale Phylogeny and Evolutionary Analysis of Ross River Virus Reveals Periodic Sweeps of Lineage Dominance in Western Australia, 1977-2014.

Ross River virus (RRV), an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, is the most medically significant mosquito-borne virus of Australia. Past RRV phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses have been based on partial genome analyses only. Three geographically distinct RRV lineages, the Eastern, the Western, and the supposedly extinct North-Eastern lineage, were classified previously. We sought to expand on past phylogenies through robust genome-scale phylogeny to better understand RRV genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics. We analyzed 106 RRV complete coding sequences, which included 13 genomes available on NCBI and 94 novel sequences derived for this study, sampled throughout Western Australia (1977-2014) and during the substantial Pacific Islands RRV epidemic (1979-1980). Our final data set comprised isolates sampled over 59 years (1959-2018) from a range of locations. Four distinct genotypes were defined, with the newly described genotype 4 (G4) found to be the contemporary lineage circulating in Western Australia. The prior geographical classification of RRV lineages was not supported by our findings, with evidence of geographical and temporal cocirculation of distinct genetic groups. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis revealed that RRV lineages diverged from a common ancestor approximately 94 years ago, with distinct lineages emerging roughly every 10 years over the past 50 years in periodic bursts of genetic diversity. Our study has enabled a more robust analysis of RRV evolutionary history and resolved greater genetic diversity that had been previously defined by partial E2 gene analysis.IMPORTANCE Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia and causes a significant burden of suffering to infected individuals as well as being a large burden to the Australian economy. The genetic diversity of RRV and its evolutionary history have so far only been studied using partial E2 gene analysis with a limited number of isolates. Robust whole-genome analysis has not yet been conducted. This study generated 94 novel near-whole-genome sequences to investigate the evolutionary history of RRV to better understand its genetic diversity through comprehensive whole-genome phylogeny. A better understanding of RRV genetic diversity will enable better diagnostics, surveillance, and potential future vaccine design.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. METHODS: A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change.

Rainfall and sentinel chicken seroconversions predict human cases of Murray Valley encephalitis in the north of Western Australia.

BACKGROUND: Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a flavivirus that occurs in Australia and New Guinea. While clinical cases are uncommon, MVEV can cause severe encephalitis with high mortality. Sentinel chicken surveillance is used at many sites around Australia to provide an early warning system for risk of human infection in areas that have low population density and geographical remoteness. MVEV in Western Australia occurs in areas of low population density and geographical remoteness, resulting in logistical challenges with surveillance systems and few human cases. While epidemiological data has suggested an association between rainfall and MVEV activity in outbreak years, it has not been quantified, and the association between rainfall and sporadic cases is less clear. In this study we analysed 22 years of sentinel chicken and human case data from Western Australia in order to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel chicken surveillance for MVEV and assess the association between rainfall and MVEV activity. METHODS: Sentinel chicken seroconversion, human case and rainfall data from the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia from 1990 to 2011 were analysed using negative binomial regression. Sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases were used as dependent variables in the model. The model was then tested against sentinel chicken and rainfall data from 2012 and 2013. RESULTS: Sentinel chicken seroconversion preceded all human cases except two in March 1993. Rainfall in the prior three months was significantly associated with both sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases across the regions of interest. Sentinel chicken seroconversion was also predictive of human cases in the models. The model predicted sentinel chicken seroconversion in the Kimberley but not in the Pilbara, where seroconversions early in 2012 were not predicted. The latter may be due to localised MVEV activity in isolated foci at dams, which do not reflect broader virus activity in the region. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that rainfall and sentinel chickens provide a useful early warning of MVEV risk to humans across endemic and epidemic areas, and that a combination of the two indicators improves the ability to assess MVEV risk and inform risk management measures.

Genomic Analysis of Sindbis Virus Reveals Uncharacterized Diversity within the Australasian Region, and Support for Revised SINV Taxonomy.

Sindbis virus (SINV) is a widely dispersed mosquito-borne alphavirus. Reports of Sindbis disease are largely restricted to northern Europe and South Africa. SINV is frequently sampled in Australian mosquito-based arbovirus surveillance programs, but human disease has rarely been reported. Molecular epidemiological studies have characterized six SINV genotypes (G1-G6) based on E2 gene phylogenies, mostly comprising viruses derived from the African-European zoogeographical region and with limited representation of Australasian SINV. In this study, we conducted whole genome sequencing of 66 SINV isolates sampled between 1960 and 2014 from countries of the Australasian region: Australia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea. G2 viruses were the most frequently and widely sampled, with three distinct sub-lineages defined. No new G6 SINV were identified, confirming geographic restriction of these viruses to south-western Australia. Comparison with global SINV characterized large-scale nucleotide and amino acid sequence divergence between African-European G1 viruses and viruses that circulate in Australasia (G2 and G3) of up to 26.83% and 14.55%, respectively, divergence that is sufficient for G2/G3 species demarcation. We propose G2 and G3 are collectively a single distinct alphavirus species that we name Argyle virus, supported by the inapparent or mild disease phenotype and the higher evolutionary rate compared with G1. Similarly, we propose G6, with 24.7% and 12.61% nucleotide and amino acid sequence divergence, is a distinct alphavirus species that we name Thomson's Lake virus.

Developing One Health surveillance systems.

The health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the environment are inter-dependent. Global anthropogenic change is a key driver of disease emergence and spread and leads to biodiversity loss and ecosystem function degradation, which are themselves drivers of disease emergence. Pathogen spill-over events and subsequent disease outbreaks, including pandemics, in humans, animals and plants may arise when factors driving disease emergence and spread converge. One Health is an integrated approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize human, animal and ecosystem health. Conventional disease surveillance has been siloed by sectors, with separate systems addressing the health of humans, domestic animals, cultivated plants, wildlife and the environment. One Health surveillance should include integrated surveillance for known and unknown pathogens, but combined with this more traditional disease-based surveillance, it also must include surveillance of drivers of disease emergence to improve prevention and mitigation of spill-over events. Here, we outline such an approach, including the characteristics and components required to overcome barriers and to optimize an integrated One Health surveillance system.

Murray Valley encephalitis: a review of clinical features, diagnosis and treatment.

Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a mosquito-borne virus that is found across Australia, Papua New Guinea and Irian Jaya. MVEV is endemic to northern Australia and causes occasional outbreaks across south-eastern Australia. 2011 saw a dramatic increase in MVEV activity in endemic regions and the re-emergence of MVEV in south-eastern Australia. This followed significant regional flooding and increased numbers of the main mosquito vector, Culex annulirostris, and was evident from the widespread seroconversion of sentinel chickens, fatalities among horses and several cases in humans, resulting in at least three deaths. The last major outbreak in Australia was in 1974, during which 58 cases were identified and the mortality rate was about 20%. With the potential for a further outbreak of MVEV in the 2011-2012 summer and following autumn, we highlight the importance of this disease, its clinical characteristics and radiological and laboratory features. We present a suspected but unproven case of MVEV infection to illustrate some of the challenges in clinical management. It remains difficult to establish an early diagnosis of MVEV infection, and there is a lack of proven therapeutic options.

The Emergence of Japanese Encephalitis Virus in Australia in 2022: Existing Knowledge of Mosquito Vectors.

In early 2022, the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) was identified as the cause of stillborn and mummified piglets in pig farms in southeastern Australia. Human cases and additional pig farms with infected piglets were subsequently identified across a widespread area encompassing four states. To inform surveillance and control programs, we synthesized existing information on Australian vectors of JEV, much of which was generated in response to incursions of JEV into the northern state of Queensland between 1995 and 2005. Members of the Culex sitiens subgroup, particularly Culex annulirostris, should be considered the primary vectors of JEV in Australia, as they yielded >87% of field detections of JEV, were highly efficient laboratory vectors of the virus, readily fed on pigs and birds (the key amplifying hosts of the virus) when they were available, and are widespread and often occur in large populations. Three introduced species, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex gelidus and Culex tritaeniorhynchus may also serve as vectors, but more information on their geographical distribution, abundance and bionomics in the Australian context is required. Mosquitoes from other genera, such as Aedes and Verrallina, whilst considered relatively poor vectors, could play a regional or supplemental role in transmission, especially facilitating vertical transmission as a virus overwintering mechanism. Additional factors that could impact JEV transmission, including mosquito survival, dispersal and genetics, are also discussed. Possible directions for investigation are provided, especially in the context of the virus emerging in a region with different mosquito fauna and environmental drivers than northern Australia.

Japanese Encephalitis Virus: The Emergence of Genotype IV in Australia and Its Potential Endemicity.

A fatal case of Japanese encephalitis (JE) occurred in northern Australia in early 2021. Sequence studies showed that the virus belonged to genotype IV (GIV), a genotype previously believed to be restricted to the Indonesian archipelago. This was the first locally acquired case of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) GIV to occur outside Indonesia, and the second confirmed fatal human case caused by a GIV virus. A closely related GIV JEV strain subsequently caused a widespread outbreak in eastern Australia in 2022 that was first detected by fetal death and abnormalities in commercial piggeries. Forty-two human cases also occurred with seven fatalities. This has been the first major outbreak of JEV in mainland Australia, and geographically the largest virgin soil outbreak recorded for JEV. This outbreak provides an opportunity to discuss and document the factors involved in the virus' spread and its ecology in a novel ecological milieu in which other flaviviruses, including members of the JE serological complex, also occur. The probable vertebrate hosts and mosquito vectors are discussed with respect to virus spread and its possible endemicity in Australia, and the need to develop a One Health approach to develop improved surveillance methods to rapidly detect future outbreak activity across a large geographical area containing a sparse human population. Understanding the spread of JEV in a novel ecological environment is relevant to the possible threat that JEV may pose in the future to other receptive geographic areas, such as the west coast of the United States, southern Europe or Africa.

Molecular detection and characterisation of the first Japanese encephalitis virus belonging to genotype IV acquired in Australia.

BACKGROUND: A fatal case of Japanese encephalitis (JE) occurred in a resident of the Tiwi Islands, in the Northern Territory of Australia in February 2021, preceding the large JE outbreak in south-eastern Australia in 2022. This study reports the detection, whole genome sequencing and analysis of the virus responsible (designated JEV/Australia/NT_Tiwi Islands/2021). METHODS: Reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) testing was performed on post-mortem brain specimens using a range of JE virus (JEV)-specific assays. Virus isolation from brain specimens was attempted by inoculation of mosquito and mammalian cells or embryonated chicken eggs. Whole genome sequencing was undertaken using a combination of Illumina next generation sequencing methodologies, including a tiling amplicon approach. Phylogenetic and selection analyses were performed using alignments of the Tiwi Islands JEV genome and envelope (E) protein gene sequences and publicly available JEV sequences. RESULTS: Virus isolation was unsuccessful and JEV RNA was detected only by RT-qPCR assays capable of detecting all JEV genotypes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the Tiwi Islands strain is a divergent member of genotype IV (GIV) and is closely related to the 2022 Australian outbreak virus (99.8% nucleotide identity). The Australian strains share highest levels of nucleotide identity with Indonesian viruses from 2017 and 2019 (96.7-96.8%). The most recent common ancestor of this Australian-Indonesian clade was estimated to have emerged in 2007 (95% HPD range: 1998-2014). Positive selection was detected using two methods (MEME and FEL) at several sites in the E and non-structural protein genes, including a single site in the E protein (S194N) unique to the Australian GIV strains. CONCLUSION: This case represents the first detection of GIV JEV acquired in Australia, and only the second confirmed fatal human infection with a GIV JEV strain. The close phylogenetic relationship between the Tiwi Islands strain and recent Indonesian viruses is indicative of the origin of this novel GIV lineage, which we estimate has circulated in the region for several years prior to the Tiwi Islands case.

Determinants of attenuation in the envelope protein of the flavivirus Alfuy.

Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus endemic to Australia and Papua New Guinea. Most strains of MVEV cause potentially fatal cases of encephalitis in humans and horses, and have been shown to be highly neuroinvasive in weanling mice. In contrast, the naturally occurring subtype Alfuy virus (ALFV) has never been associated with human disease, nor is it neuroinvasive in weanling mice, even at high doses. To identify viral factors associated with ALFV attenuation, a chimeric infectious clone was constructed containing the structural genes premembrane (prM) and envelope (E) of ALFV swapped into the MVEV genome. The resulting virus (vMVEV/ALFVstr) was no longer neuroinvasive in mice, suggesting that motifs within prM-E of ALFV confer attenuation. To define these motifs further, mutants were constructed by targeting divergent sequences between the MVEV and ALFV E proteins that are known markers of virulence in other encephalitic flaviviruses. MVEV mutants containing a unique ALFV sequence in the flexible hinge region (residues 273-277) or lacking the conserved glycosylation site at position 154 were significantly less neuroinvasive in mice than wild-type MVEV, as determined by delayed time to death or increased LD(50). Conversely, when the corresponding MVEV sequences were inserted into the vMVEV/ALFVstr chimera, the mutant containing the MVEV hinge sequence was more neuroinvasive than the parental chimera, though not to the same level as wild-type MVEV. These results identify the hinge region and E protein glycosylation as motifs that contribute to the attenuation of ALFV.

Emerging flaviviruses: the spread and resurgence of Japanese encephalitis, West Nile and dengue viruses.

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses provide some of the most important examples of emerging and resurging diseases of global significance. Here, we describe three of them: the resurgence of dengue in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, and the spread and establishment of Japanese encephalitis and West Nile viruses in new habitats and environments. These three examples also illustrate the complexity of the various factors that contribute to their emergence, resurgence and spread. Whereas some of these factors are natural, such as bird migration, most are due to human activities, such as changes in land use, water impoundments and transportation, which result in changed epidemiological patterns. The three examples also show the ease with which mosquito-borne viruses can spread to and colonize new areas, and the need for continued international surveillance and improved public health infrastructure to meet future emerging disease threats.