Clinical, prognostic and pathophysiological implications of MOG-IgG detection in the CSF: the importance of intrathecal MOG-IgG synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrospinal fluid myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein IgG (CSF MOG-IgG) are found in a proportion of patients with MOG antibody-associated disorder (MOGAD) and have been associated with severe disease presentations. However, most studies did not systematically investigate the role of MOG-IgG intrathecal synthesis (ITS). METHODS: We retrospectively studied 960 consecutive patients with paired serum and CSF samples screened for MOG-IgG using a live cell-based assays. MOG-IgG-specific antibody index (AIMOG) was systematically calculated using serum and CSF titres to assess MOG-IgG ITS, and clinical features were compared between MOG-IgG CSF+/CSF- and ITS+/ITS- patients. RESULTS: MOG-IgG were found in 55/960 patients (5.7%; serum+/CSF-: 58.2%, serum+/CSF+: 34.5%; serum-/CSF+: 7.3%). Serum/CSF MOG-IgG titres showed a moderate correlation in patients without ITS (ρ=0.47 (CI 0.18 to 0.68), p<0.001), but not in those with ITS (ρ=0.14 (CI -0.46 to -0.65), p=0.65). There were no clinical-paraclinical differences between MOG-IgG CSF+ vs CSF- patients. Conversely, patients with MOG-IgG ITS showed pyramidal symptoms (73% vs 32%, p=0.03), spinal cord involvement (82% vs 39%, p=0.02) and severe outcome at follow-up (36% vs 5%, p=0.02) more frequently than those without MOG-IgG ITS. A multivariate logistic regression model indicated that MOG-IgG ITS was an independent predictor of a poor outcome (OR: 14.93 (CI 1.40 to 19.1); p=0.03). AIMOG correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores at disease nadir and at last follow-up (p=0.02 and p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Consistently with physiopathology, MOG-IgG ITS is a promising prognostic factor in MOGAD, and its calculation could enhance the clinical relevance of CSF MOG-IgG testing, making a case for its introduction in clinical practice.

Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable.

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Comparing Natural History of Early and Late Onset Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to describe and compare disease course and prognosis of early (ie, disease onset before age 11 years) and late (ie, disease onset after age 11 years) onset pediatric multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Prospectively collected clinical information from Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register of 1993 pediatric multiple sclerosis patients, of whom 172 had early onset, was analyzed. Cox models adjusted for sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale score, and disease-modifying treatments and stratified for diagnostic criteria adopted (Poser vs McDonald) were used to assess the risk of reaching irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale scores of 3, 4, and 6, and conversion to secondary progressive phenotype in early versus late onset pediatric patients. Prognostic factors were also evaluated. RESULTS: A greater proportion of males, isolated brainstem involvement, and longer time interval between first and second clinical episode were observed in early versus late onset pediatric patients. Compared to late onset, early onset pediatric patients took longer from disease onset to convert to secondary progressive phenotype and to reach all disability milestones. Recovery from first demyelinating event, time to first relapse, annualized relapse rate during the first 3 years of disease, and disease-modifying treatment exposure were independent predictors for long-term disability in early onset pediatric patients. In late onset pediatric patients, isolated optic neuritis, multifocal symptoms, and progressive course at disease onset were additional predictors for long-term disability. INTERPRETATION: These findings point toward the existence of a different natural history in early versus late onset pediatric multiple sclerosis patients. ANN NEUROL 2022;91:483-495.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis after early worsening of disability.

BACKGROUND: Whether progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) heralds earlier onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and more rapid accumulation of disability during SPMS remains to be determined. We investigated the association between early PIRA, relapse-associated worsening (RAW) of disability and time to SPMS, subsequent disability progression and their response to therapy. METHODS: This observational cohort study included patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from the MSBase international registry across 146 centres and 39 countries. Associations between the number of PIRA and RAW during early multiple sclerosis (MS) (the initial 5 years of MS onset) were analysed with respect to: time to SPMS using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for disease characteristics; and disability progression during SPMS, calculated as the change of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scores over time, using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: 10 692 patients met the inclusion criteria: 3125 (29%) were men and the mean MS onset age was 32.2 years. A higher number of early PIRA (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.76, p<0.001) and RAW (HR=2.53, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.85, p<0.001) signalled a higher risk of SPMS. A higher proportion of early disease-modifying therapy exposure (per 10%) reduced the effect of early RAW (HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.00, p=0.041) but not PIRA (HR=0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.05, p=0.49) on SPMS risk. No association between early PIRA/RAW and disability progression during SPMS was found. CONCLUSIONS: Early disability increase during RRMS is associated with a greater risk of SPMS but not the rate of disability progression during SPMS. The deterioration associated with early relapses represents a potentially treatable risk factor of SPMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12605000455662).

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Progression is independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis: a real-life cohort study.

Disability accrual in multiple sclerosis may occur as relapse-associated worsening or progression independent of relapse activity. The role of progression independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis is yet to be established. The objective of this multicentre, observational, retrospective cohort study was to investigate the contribution of relapse-associated worsening and progression independent of relapse activity to confirmed disability accumulation in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, assessed within one year from onset and with follow-up ≥5 years (n = 5169). Data were extracted from the Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register. Confirmed disability accumulation was defined by an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed at 6 months, and classified per temporal association with relapses. Factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Over a follow-up period of 11.5 ± 5.5 years, progression independent of relapse activity occurred in 1427 (27.6%) and relapse-associated worsening in 922 (17.8%) patients. Progression independent of relapse activity was associated with older age at baseline [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.25, P < 0.001], having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.44; 95% CI 1.28-1.61, P < 0.001), longer disease duration at baseline (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.28-1.90, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.88-0.96, P < 0.001) and lower number of relapses before the event (HR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.73-0.80, P < 0.001). Relapse-associated worsening was associated with younger age at baseline (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.81-0.93, P < 0.001), having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.35-1.79, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99, P = 0.017) and a higher number of relapses before the event (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07, P < 0.001). Longer exposure to disease-modifying drugs was associated with a lower risk of both progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening (P < 0.001). This study provides evidence that in an early relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis cohort, progression independent of relapse activity was an important contributor to confirmed disability accumulation. Our findings indicate that insidious progression appears even in the earliest phases of the disease, suggesting that inflammation and neurodegeneration can represent a single disease continuum, in which age is one of the main determinants of disease phenomenology.

Unmet needs and gaps in the identification of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis: a Southern Italy healthcare professionals' perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease with different clinical courses and a tendency to worsening. The relapsing-remitting MS presents acute onset and relapses of neurological symptoms, followed by their remission. This form can convert to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) with irreversible neurological worsening and disability. The identification of signs, symptoms, markers of progression, and strategies to manage MS patients is mandatory to allow early identification of those at higher risk of conversion to SPMS, for prompt intervention to cope with the progression of the disease. METHODS: A panel of Italian experts from Southern Italy have reviewed the current knowledge on MS and its management and identified the crucial tools for SPMS recognition. RESULTS: More effective communication between patients and clinicians should be established, with the support of digital tools. Moreover, the improvement in the clinical use of biomarkers for progression (cellular structures and tissue organization, such as neurofilaments and chitinase 3-like 1, axonal and neurons density) and of instrumental analyses for recognition of whole-brain atrophy, chronic active lesions, spinal cord lesions and atrophy, and the improvement the combination of the Expanded Disability Status Scale and the evaluation of cognitive dysfunction are discussed. CONCLUSION: Given the availability of a pharmacological option, adequate education both for patients, regarding the evolution of the disease and the specific treatment, and for professionals, to allow more effective and sensitive communication and the best use of diagnostic and management tools, could represent a strategy to improve patient management and their quality of life.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Two-year macular volume assessment in multiple sclerosis patients treated with fingolimod.

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod (FNG) is associated with the development of symptomatic macular edema (ME) in a small subset of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. By using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), an increase in the total macular volume (TMV) was rarely detected during the first months of treatment. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess whether FNG treatment leads to long-term macular changes in a real-life setting. METHODS: Sixty RRMS patients starting FNG, according to therapeutic indication, were enrolled at three Italian MS centers and followed for 2 years. RESULTS: The mean TMV did not change between baseline and the follow-up. No patients experienced visual acuity drop during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of FNG in MS is associated with a modest, not significant, increase in macular volume followed by no further significant changes over 2 years, highlighting the good safety profile of such treatment in MS.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis in the province of Catania. A geo-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: An increasing incidence of MS in the city of Catania was reported during 1975-2004, with a higher incidence along the south-eastern flank of the Mt.Etna. We evaluated the incidence of MS in the entire province of Catania during 2005-2015 and the spatial distribution of MS-cases using a cluster analysis. METHODS: Patients were considered as incident MS-cases if they fulfilled the revised McDonald criteria for MS during 2005-2015 and were residents in the province of Catania at the time of disease onset. Cluster analysis was performed using both LISA and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Residence address at disease onset was considered for each case. Communalities were assessed considering the centroid of their inhabited area. RESULTS: A total of 973 MS-cases were identified. Mean annual incidence risk was 8.2/100,000 person-years (95%CI 7.7-8.7), significantly higher among women (10.5/100,000 versus 5.7/100,000). LISA identified a spatial aggregation of MS-cases in the eastern side of the province of Catania and Kulldorff's statistics confirmed the existence of a statistically significant spatial cluster in this area (SIR 1.23,95%CI 1.08-1.23, p-value 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms a high incidence of MS in the province of Catania and the presence of a spatial cluster along the eastern side of the province. This area is considered the most exposed to volcanogenic ashes due to the prevailing westerly to north-westerly trade winds. Even if such distribution could be related with a greater exposure to volcanogenic metals, further studies are needed to explore possible alternative hypotheses.

Prevalence and Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in the City of Biancavilla.

BACKGROUND: It is common that the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies with geography and ethnicity. Recent studies show a continuous growth of incidence and prevalence in Sicily, despite the controversial "latitude gradient theory." OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study is to ascertain incidence and prevalence rates of MS in the city of Biancavilla, Sicily, Southern Italy. METHOD: Case ascertainment approach and a clinical database collecting data of MS cases to Biancavilla, according to McDonald 2011 and Thompson 2018 criteria, from 1992 to 2018, have been used to the study. We further collected information regarding the familiarity of patients with Mesothelioma, highly incident in this geographic area. RESULTS: The results showed an increase of the mean annual incidence for the period 2012-2018 (16.8/100,000) compared to 1992-1996 (4.5/100,000), and a standardized incidence ratio of 1.41 (95% CI 0.74-2.45). On December 31, 2018, 70 patients suffering from definite MS and living in Biancavilla yielded a crude prevalence of 292.3 per 100,000 (198.2/100,000 for men; 380.7/100,000 for women) with a standardized morbidity ratio of 2.3 (95% CI 1.8-2.9). CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirmed Biancavilla is an area at high risk for MS, ascribable to increased survival, improved ascertainment, or maybe related to a genetic or environmental risk. At the time, any relation with mesothelioma was excluded.

Prognostic indicators in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To assess prognostic factors for a second clinical attack and a first disability-worsening event in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome (pCIS) suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. METHODS: A cohort of 770 pCIS patients was followed up for at least 10 years. Cox proportional hazard models and Recursive Partitioning and Amalgamation (RECPAM) tree-regression were used to analyze data. RESULTS: In pCIS, female sex and a multifocal onset were risk factors for a second clinical attack (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 1.06-1.55; 1.42, 1.10-1.84, respectively), whereas disease-modifying drug (DMD) exposure reduced this risk (HR, 95% CI = 0.75, 0.60-0.95). After pediatric onset MS (POMS) diagnosis, age at onset younger than 15 years and DMD exposure decreased the risk of a first Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)-worsening event (HR, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.42-0.83; 0.75, 0.71-0.80, respectively), whereas the occurrence of relapse increased this risk (HR, 95% CI = 5.08, 3.46-7.46). An exploratory RECPAM analysis highlighted a significantly higher incidence of a first EDSS-worsening event in patients with multifocal or isolated spinal cord or optic neuritis involvement at onset in comparison to those with an isolated supratentorial or brainstem syndrome. A Cox regression model including RECPAM classes confirmed DMD exposure as the most protective factor against EDSS-worsening events and relapses as the most important risk factor for attaining EDSS worsening. INTERPRETATION: This work represents a step forward in identifying predictors of unfavorable course in pCIS and POMS and supports a protective effect of early DMD treatment in preventing MS development and disability accumulation in this population. Ann Neurol 2017;81:729-739.

Multiple Sclerosis Progression and Relapse Activity in Children.

Importance: Although up to 20% of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) experience onset before 18 years of age, it has been suggested that people with pediatric-onset MS (POMS) are protected against disability because of greater capacity for repair. Objective: To assess the incidence of and factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) and relapse-associated worsening (RAW) in POMS compared with typical adult-onset MS (AOMS) and late-onset MS (LOMS). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study on prospectively acquired data from the Italian MS Register was performed from June 1, 2000, to September 30, 2021. At the time of data extraction, longitudinal data from 73 564 patients from 120 MS centers were available in the register. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes included age-related cumulative incidence and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PIRA and RAW and associated factors. Exposures: Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging features, time receiving disease-modifying therapy (DMT), and time to first DMT. Results: After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the study assessed 16 130 patients with MS (median [IQR] age at onset, 28.7 [22.8-36.2 years]; 68.3% female). Compared with AOMS and LOMS, patients with POMS had less disability, exhibited more active disease, and were exposed to DMT for a longer period. A first 48-week-confirmed PIRA occurred in 7176 patients (44.5%): 558 patients with POMS (40.4%), 6258 patients with AOMS (44.3%), and 360 patients with LOMS (56.8%) (P < .001). Factors associated with PIRA were older age at onset (AOMS vs POMS HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.30-1.55; LOMS vs POMS HR, 2.98; 95% CI, 2.60-3.41; P < .001), longer disease duration (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.04-1.05; P < .001), and shorter DMT exposure (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.64-0.74; P < .001). The incidence of PIRA was 1.3% at 20 years of age, but it rapidly increased approximately 7 times between 21 and 30 years of age (9.0%) and nearly doubled for each age decade from 40 to 70 years (21.6% at 40 years, 39.0% at 50 years, 61.0% at 60 years, and 78.7% at 70 years). The cumulative incidence of RAW events followed a similar trend from 20 to 60 years (0.5% at 20 years, 3.5% at 30 years, 7.8% at 40 years, 14.4% at 50 years, and 24.1% at 60 years); no further increase was found at 70 years (27.7%). Delayed DMT initiation was associated with higher risk of PIRA (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.00-1.34; P = .04) and RAW (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28-2.39; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: PIRA can occur at any age, and although pediatric onset is not fully protective against progression, this study's findings suggest that patients with pediatric onset are less likely to exhibit PIRA over a decade of follow-up. However, these data also reinforce the benefit for DMT initiation in patients with POMS, as treatment was associated with reduced occurrence of both PIRA and RAW regardless of age at onset.

Long-term effectiveness of natalizumab in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A propensity-matched study.

Treatment options for secondary progressive MS (SPMS) are limited, especially considering that the new drugs recently approved are licensed for actively relapsing patients. We aimed to compare the disability progression in a real-world cohort of SPMS patients treated with natalizumab (NTZ) or interferon beta-1b (IFNb-1b). This multicenter retrospective enrolled patients with a diagnosis of SPMS according to 2014 Lublin criteria, who received NTZ or IFNb-1b for at least 48 months between the 1st June 2012 and the 15th May 2018 â€‹at 33 Italian MS centers contributing to the Italian MS Registry NTZ or IFNb-1b. Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale worsening (CEW) and progression independent of relapse (PIRA) were evaluated. In order to correct for non-randomization, a propensity score matching of the groups was performed. Out of 5206 MS patients identified at the time of data extraction, 421 SPMS patients treated with NTZ (224 [53.2%] females, mean age 45.3 â€‹± â€‹25.4 years) and 353 with IFNb-1b (133 [37.8%] females, mean age 48.5 â€‹± â€‹19.8 years) were enrolled. After applying the matching procedure, 102 patients were retained in the NTZ group and 98 in the IFNb-2b group. The proportion of patients who reached the 48-month 1-point CEW was significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ group (58.2% versus 30.4%, p â€‹= â€‹0.01). The proportion of patients who developed PIRA at 48 months were significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ (72.4% versus 40.2%, p â€‹= â€‹0.01). EDSS before treatment initiation and SPMS duration were risk factors for disability progression in terms of PIRA (HR 2.54, 25%CI 1.67-5.7; p â€‹= â€‹0.006 and HR 2.04, 25%CI 1.22-3.35; p â€‹= â€‹0.01, respectively). Patients treated with IFNb-1b were 1.64 times more to likely to develop PIRA (HR 1.64, 25%CI 1.04-4.87; p â€‹= â€‹0.001). Treatment with NTZ in SPMS patients showed more favorable disability outcomes compared to IFNb-1b with beneficial effects over 48 months.

Progression independent of relapse activity in relapsing multiple sclerosis: impact and relationship with secondary progression.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the occurrence and relative contribution of relapse-associated worsening (RAW) and progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) to confirmed disability accrual (CDA) and transition to secondary progression (SP) in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Relapsing-onset MS patients with follow-up > / = 5 years (16,130) were extracted from the Italian MS Registry. CDA was a 6-month confirmed increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Sustained disability accumulation (SDA) was a CDA with no EDSS improvement in all subsequent visits. Predictors of PIRA and RAW and the association between final EDSS score and type of CDA were assessed using logistic multivariable regression and multivariable ordinal regression models, respectively. RESULTS: Over 11.8 ± 5.4 years, 16,731 CDA events occurred in 8998 (55.8%) patients. PIRA (12,175) accounted for 72.3% of CDA. SDA occurred in 8912 (73.2%) PIRA and 2583 (56.7%) RAW (p < 0.001). 4453 (27.6%) patients transitioned to SPMS, 4010 (73.2%) out of 5476 patients with sustained PIRA and 443 (24.8%) out of 1790 patients with non-sustained PIRA. In the multivariable ordinal regression analysis, higher final EDSS score was associated with PIRA (estimated coefficient 0.349, 95% CI 0.120-0.577, p = 0.003). DISCUSSION: In this real-world relapsing-onset MS cohort, PIRA was the main driver of disability accumulation and was associated with higher disability in the long term. Sustained PIRA was linked to transition to SP and could represent a more accurate PIRA definition and a criterion to mark the putative onset of the progressive phase.

A multi-centre longitudinal study analysing multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapy prescribing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic raised concern amongst clinicians that disease-modifying therapies (DMT), particularly anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and fingolimod, could worsen COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). This study aimed to examine DMT prescribing trends pre- and post-pandemic onset. METHODS: A multi-centre longitudinal study with 8,771 participants from MSBase was conducted. Two time periods were defined: pre-pandemic (March 11 2018-March 10 2020) and post-pandemic onset (March 11 2020-11 March 2022). The association between time and prescribing trends was analysed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. DMT initiation refers to first initiation of any DMT, whilst DMT switches indicate changing regimen within 6 months of last use. RESULTS: Post-pandemic onset, there was a significant increase in DMT initiation/switching to natalizumab and cladribine [(Natalizumab-initiation: OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.39-2.13; switching: OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.40-1.98), (Cladribine-initiation: OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87; switching: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.41-1.98)]. Anti-CD20mAb initiation/switching decreased in the year of the pandemic, but recovered in the second year, such that overall odds increased slightly post-pandemic (initiation: OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.49; Switching: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29. Initiation/switching of fingolimod, interferon-beta, and alemtuzumab significantly decreased [(Fingolimod-initiation: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73; switching: OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58), (Interferon-gamma-initiation: OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.57; switching: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99), (Alemtuzumab-initiation: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; switching: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.44)]. CONCLUSIONS: Post-pandemic onset, clinicians preferentially prescribed natalizumab and cladribine over anti-CD20 mAbs and fingolimod, likely to preserve efficacy but reduce perceived immunosuppressive risks. This could have implications for disease progression in pwMS. Our findings highlight the significance of equitable DMT access globally, and the importance of evidence-based decision-making in global health challenges.