Consequences of low estimated glomerular filtration rate either before or early after kidney donation.

In the general population, decreases in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are associated with subsequent development of chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and death. It is unknown if low estimated GFR (eGFR) before or early after kidney donation was also associated with these risks. One thousand six hundred ninety-nine living donors who had both predonation and early (4-10 weeks) postdonation eGFR were included. We studied the relationships between eGFR, age at donation, and the time to sustained eGFR<45 (CKD stage 3b) and <30 mL/min/1.73m2 (CKD stage 4), hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), CVD, and death. Median follow-up was 12 (interquartile range, 6-21) years. Twenty-year event rates were 5.8% eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2; 1.2% eGFR<30 mL/min/1.73m2; 29.0% hypertension; 7.8% DM; 8.0% CVD; and 5.2% death. The median time to eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2 (N = 79) was 17 years, and eGFR<30 mL/min/1.73m2 (N = 22) was 25 years. Both low predonation and early postdonation eGFR were associated with eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2 (P < .0001) and eGFR<30 mL/min/1.73m2 (P < .006); however, the primary driver of risk for all ages was low postdonation (rather than predonation) eGFR. Predonation and postdonation eGFR were not associated with hypertension, DM, CVD, or death. Low predonation and early postdonation eGFR are risk factors for developing eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73m2 (CKD stage 3b) and <30 mL/min/1.73m2 (CKD stage 4), but not CVD, hypertension, DM, or death.

Evolution of Pancreas Transplantation At A Single Institution-50+ Years and 2,500 Transplants.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of pancreas transplantation, including improved outcomes and factors associated with improved outcomes over the past five decades. BACKGROUND: The world's first successful pancreas transplant was performed in December 1966 at the University of Minnesota. As new modalities for diabetes treatment mature, we must carefully assess the current state of pancreas transplantation to determine its ongoing role in patient care. METHODS: A single-center retrospective review of 2,500 pancreas transplants performed over >50 years in bivariate and multivariable models. Transplants were divided into six eras; outcomes are presented for the entire cohort and by era. RESULTS: All measures of patient and graft survival improved progressively through the six transplant eras. The overall death censored (DC) pancreas graft half-lives were >35 years for simultaneous pancreas and kidney (SPK), 7.1 years for pancreas after kidney (PAK), and 3.3 years for pancreas transplants alone (PTA). The 10-year DC pancreas graft survival rate in the most recent era was 86.9% for SPK recipients, 58.2% for PAK recipients, and 47.6% for PTA. Overall graft loss was most influenced by patient survival in SPK transplants, whereas graft loss in PAK and PTA recipients was more often due to graft failures. Predictors of improved pancreas graft survival were primary transplants, bladder drainage of exocrine secretions, younger donor age, and shorter preservation time. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreas outcomes have significantly improved over time via sequential, but overlapping, advances in surgical technique, immunosuppressive protocols, reduced preservation time, and the more recent reduction of immune-mediated graft loss.

Steroid-tacrolimus drug-drug interaction and the effect of CYP3A genotypes.

AIMS: Tacrolimus, metabolized by CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 enzymes, is susceptible to drug-drug interactions (DDI). Steroids induce CYP3A genes to increase tacrolimus clearance, but the effect is variable. We hypothesized that the extent of the steroid-tacrolimus DDI differs by CYP3A4/5 genotypes. METHODS: Kidney transplant recipients (n = 2462) were classified by the number of loss of function alleles (LOF) (CYP3A5*3, *6 and *7 and CYP3A4*22) and steroid use at each tacrolimus trough in the first 6 months post-transplant. A population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed by nonlinear mixed-effect modelling (NONMEM) and stepwise covariate modelling to define significant covariates affecting tacrolimus clearance. A stochastic simulation was performed and translated into a Shiny application with the mrgsolve and Shiny packages in R. RESULTS: Steroids were associated with modestly higher (3%-11.8%) tacrolimus clearance. Patients with 0-LOF alleles receiving steroids showed the greatest increase (11.8%) in clearance compared to no steroids, whereas those with 2-LOFs had a negligible increase (2.6%) in the presence of steroids. Steroid use increased tacrolimus clearance by 5% and 10.3% in patients with 1-LOF and 3/4-LOFs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Steroids increase the clearance of tacrolimus but vary slightly by CYP3A genotype. This is important in individuals of African ancestry who are more likely to carry no LOF alleles, may more commonly receive steroid treatment, and will need higher tacrolimus doses.

Limited Sampling Strategies Fail to Accurately Predict Mycophenolic Acid Area Under the Curve in Kidney Transplant Recipients and the Impact of Enterohepatic Recirculation.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic drug monitoring for mycophenolic acid (MPA) is challenging due to difficulties in measuring the area under the curve (AUC). Limited sampling strategies (LSSs) have been developed for MPA therapeutic drug monitoring but come with risk of unacceptable performance. The authors hypothesized that the poor predictive performance of LSSs were due to the variability in MPA enterohepatic recirculation (EHR). This study is the first to evaluate LSSs models performance in the context of EHR. METHODS: Adult kidney transplant recipients (n = 84) receiving oral mycophenolate mofetil underwent intensive MPA pharmacokinetic sampling. MPA AUC0-12hr and EHR were determined. Published MPA LSSs in kidney transplant recipients receiving tacrolimus were evaluated for their predictive performance in estimating AUC0-12hr in our full cohort and separately in individuals with high and low EHR. RESULTS: None of the evaluated LSS models (n = 12) showed good precision or accuracy in predicting MPA AUC0-12hr in the full cohort. In the high EHR group, models with late timepoints had better accuracy but low precision, except for 1 model with late timepoints at 6 and 10 hours postdose, which had marginally acceptable precision. For all models, the good guess of predicted AUC0-12hr (±15% of observed AUC0-12hr) was highly variable (range, full cohort = 19%-61.9%; high EHR = 4.5%-65.9%; low EHR = 27.5%-62.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive performance of the LSS models varied according to EHR status. Timepoints ≥5 hours postdose in LSS models are essential to capture EHR. Models and strategies that incorporate EHR during development are required to accurately ascertain MPA exposure.

More than four decades of graft survival in pediatric kidney transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Early in the history of kidney transplantation, short-term graft survival was low. Yet some have had excellent long-term survival. Herein, we describe characteristics of pediatric recipients with > 40 years of graft survival currently alive with a functioning first graft. METHODS: We reviewed all pediatric (age < 18 years) kidney transplants performed at the University of Minnesota between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 1979 (n = 148), to identify all recipients currently alive with a functioning first graft. Data are presented as medians with interquartile ranges (IQR) and proportions. RESULTS: We identified 10 recipients with > 40-year graft survival (median follow-up: 45.0 years (IQR: 43.1, 48.1)). The median age at transplant was 13.8 years (IQR: 5.1, 16.3). All recipients were white; half were male. Of the 10, 4 had glomerulonephritis, 2 had congenital anomalies of the kidney and the urinary tract, 2 had congenital nephrotic syndrome, 1 had Alport syndrome, and 1 had cystic kidney disease as kidney failure cause. Nine patients received a living-related donor transplant, and 1 patient received a deceased-donor transplant. The median estimated glomerular filtration rate at 20 years post-transplant was 79.9 (IQR: 72.3, 98.4); at 30 years, 67.7 (IQR: 63.2, 91.8); and at 40 years, 80.3 ml/min/1.73 m2 (IQR: 73.7, 86.0). None developed rejection, 5 developed hypertension, 2 developed dyslipidemia, 1 developed diabetes, and 7 patients developed malignancy (4 skin cancer, 2 breast cancer, and 1 post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease). CONCLUSION: Pediatric kidney transplant recipients may achieve > 4 decades of graft survival. Cancer is a common complication warranting vigilant screening.

Transportability of causal inference under random dynamic treatment regimes for kidney-pancreas transplantation.

A difficult decision for patients in need of kidney-pancreas transplant is whether to seek a living kidney donor or wait to receive both organs from one deceased donor. The framework of dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) can inform this choice, but a patient-relevant strategy such as "wait for deceased-donor transplant" is ill-defined because there are multiple versions of treatment (i.e., wait times, organ qualities). Existing DTR methods average over the distribution of treatment versions in the data, estimating survival under a "representative intervention." This is undesirable if transporting inferences to a target population such as patients today, who experience shorter wait times thanks to evolutions in allocation policy. We, therefore, propose the concept of a generalized representative intervention (GRI): a random DTR that assigns treatment version by drawing from the distribution among strategy compliers in the target population (e.g., patients today). We describe an inverse-probability-weighted product-limit estimator of survival under a GRI that performs well in simulations and can be implemented in standard statistical software. For continuous treatments (e.g., organ quality), weights are reformulated to depend on probabilities only, not densities. We apply our method to a national database of kidney-pancreas transplant candidates from 2001-2020 to illustrate that variability in transplant rate across years and centers results in qualitative differences in the optimal strategy for patient survival.

The John S. Najarian symposium: The past, present, and future of surgery and transplantation, May 20, 2022, Minneapolis, MN.

Dr John S Najarian (1927-2020), chairman of the Department of Surgery at the University of Minnesota from 1967 to 1993, was a pioneer in surgery, clinical immunology and transplantation. A Covid-delayed Festschrift was held in his honor on May 20, 2022. The speakers reflected on his myriad contributions to surgery, transplantation, and resident/fellow training, as well as current areas of ongoing research to improve clinical outcomes. Of note, Dr Najarian was a founder of the journal Clinical Transplantation.

Higher number of tacrolimus dose adjustments in kidney transplant recipients who are extensive and intermediate CYP3A5 metabolizers.

Kidney transplant recipients carrying the CYP3A5*1 allele have lower tacrolimus troughs, and higher dose requirements compared to those with the CYP3A5*3/*3 genotype. However, data on the effect of CYP3A5 alleles on post-transplant tacrolimus management are lacking. The effect of CYP3A5 metabolism phenotypes on the number of tacrolimus dose adjustments and troughs in the first 6 months post-transplant was evaluated in 78 recipients (64% Caucasians). Time to first therapeutic concentration, percentage of time in therapeutic range (TTR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were also evaluated. Fifty-five kidney transplant recipients were CYP3A5 poor metabolizers (PM), 17 were intermediate metabolizers (IM), and 6 were extensive metabolizers (EM). Compared to PMs, EMs/IMs had significantly more dose adjustments (6.1 vs. 8.1, p = .015). Overall, 33.82% of trough measurements resulted in a dose change. There was no difference in the number of tacrolimus trough measurements between PMs and EM/IMs. The total daily tacrolimus dose requirements were higher in EMs and IMs compared to PMs (<.001). TTR was ∼50% in the PMs and EMs/IMs groups. CYP3A5 EM/IM metabolizers have more tacrolimus dose changes and higher dose requirements which increases clinical management complexity. Larger studies are needed to assess the cost and benefits of including genotyping data to improve clinical management.

The Minnesota attributable risk of kidney donation (MARKD) study: a retrospective cohort study of long-term (> 50 year) outcomes after kidney donation compared to well-matched healthy controls.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the long-term risks of living kidney donation. Well-designed studies with controls well-matched on risk factors for kidney disease are needed to understand the attributable risks of kidney donation. METHODS: The goal of the Minnesota Attributable Risk of Kidney Donation (MARKD) study is to compare the long-term (> 50 years) outcomes of living donors (LDs) to contemporary and geographically similar controls that are well-matched on health status. University of Minnesota (n = 4022; 1st transplant: 1963) and Mayo Clinic LDs (n = 3035; 1st transplant: 1963) will be matched to Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) controls (approximately 4 controls to 1 donor) on the basis of age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The REP controls are a well-defined population, with detailed medical record data linked between all providers in Olmsted and surrounding counties, that come from the same geographic region and era (early 1960s to present) as the donors. Controls will be carefully selected to have health status acceptable for donation on the index date (date their matched donor donated). Further refinement of the control group will include confirmed kidney health (e.g., normal serum creatinine and/or no proteinuria) and matching (on index date) of body mass index, smoking history, family history of chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure. Outcomes will be ascertained from national registries (National Death Index and United States Renal Data System) and a new survey administered to both donors and controls; the data will be supplemented by prior surveys and medical record review of donors and REP controls. The outcomes to be compared are all-cause mortality, end-stage kidney disease, cardiovascular disease and mortality, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory and chronic kidney disease, pregnancy risks, and development of diseases that frequently lead to chronic kidney disease (e.g. hypertension, diabetes, and obesity). We will additionally evaluate whether the risk of donation differs based on baseline characteristics. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide a comprehensive assessment of long-term living donor risk to inform candidate living donors, and to inform the follow-up and care of current living donors.

A regulated system of incentives for living kidney donation: Clearing the way for an informed assessment.

The kidney shortage continues to be a crisis for our patients. Despite numerous attempts to increase living and deceased donation, annually in the United States, thousands of candidates are removed from the kidney transplant waiting list because of either death or becoming too sick to transplant. To increase living donation, trials of a regulated system of incentives for living donation have been proposed. Such trials may show: (1) a significant increase in donation, and (2) that informed, incentivized donors, making an autonomous decision to donate, have the same medical and psychosocial outcomes as our conventional donors. Given the stakes, the proposal warrants careful consideration. However, to date, much discussion of the proposal has been unproductive. Objections commonly leveled against it: fail to engage with it; conflate it with underground, unregulated markets; speculate without evidence; and reason fallaciously, favoring rhetorical impact over logic. The present paper is a corrective. It identifies these common errors so they are not repeated, thus allowing space for an assessment of the proposal on its merits.

Intermediate Renal Outcomes, Kidney Failure, and Mortality in Obese Kidney Donors.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with the two archetypal kidney disease risk factors: hypertension and diabetes. Concerns that the effects of diabetes and hypertension in obese kidney donors might be magnified in their remaining kidney have led to the exclusion of many obese candidates from kidney donation. METHODS: We compared mortality, diabetes, hypertension, proteinuria, reduced eGFR and its trajectory, and the development of kidney failure in 8583 kidney donors, according to body mass index (BMI). The study included 6822 individuals with a BMI of <30 kg/m2, 1338 with a BMI of 30-34.9 kg/m2, and 423 with a BMI of ≥35 kg/m2. We used Cox regression models, adjusting for baseline covariates only, and models adjusting for postdonation diabetes, hypertension, and kidney failure as time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Obese donors were more likely than nonobese donors to develop diabetes, hypertension, and proteinuria. The increase in eGFR in obese versus nonobese donors was significantly higher in the first 10 years (3.5 ml/min per 1.73m2 per year versus 2.4 ml/min per 1.73m2 per year; P<0.001), but comparable thereafter. At a mean±SD follow-up of 19.3±10.3 years after donation, 31 (0.5%) nonobese and 12 (0.7%) obese donors developed ESKD. Of the 12 patients with ESKD in obese donors, 10 occurred in 1445 White donors who were related to the recipient (0.9%). Risk of death in obese donors was not significantly increased compared with nonobese donors. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity in kidney donors, as in nondonors, is associated with increased risk of developing diabetes and hypertension. The absolute risk of ESKD is small and the risk of death is comparable to that of nonobese donors.

i-IFTA and chronic active T cell-mediated rejection: A tale of 2 (DeKAF) cohorts.

Inflammation in areas of fibrosis (i-IFTA) in posttransplant biopsies is part of the diagnostic criteria for chronic active TCMR (CA TCMR -- i-IFTA ≥ 2, ti ≥ 2, t ≥ 2). We evaluated i-IFTA and CA TCMR in the DeKAF indication biopsy cohorts: prospective (n = 585, mean time to biopsy = 1.7 years); cross-sectional (n = 458, mean time to biopsy = 7.8 years). Grouped by i-IFTA scores, the 3-year postbiopsy DC-GS is similar across cohorts. Although a previous acute rejection episode (AR) was more common in those with i-IFTA on biopsy, the majority of those with i-IFTA had not had previous AR. There was no association between type of previous AR (AMR, TCMR) and presence of i-IFTA. In both cohorts, i-IFTA was associated with markers of both cellular (increased Banff i, t, ti) and humoral (increased g, ptc, C4d, DSA) activity. Biopsies with i-IFTA = 1 and i-IFTA ≥ 2 with concurrent t ≥ 2 and ti ≥ 2 had similar DC-GS. These results suggest that (a) i-IFTA≥1 should be considered a threshold for diagnoses incorporating i-IFTA, ti, and t; (b) given that i-IFTA ≥ 2,t ≥ 2, ti ≥ 2 can occur in the absence of preceding TCMR and that the component histologic scores (i-IFTA,t,ti) each indicate an acute change (albeit i-IFTA on the nonspecific background of IFTA), the diagnostic category "CA TCMR" should be reconsidered.

Outcomes of Kidney Allograft and Recipient Survival After Liver Transplantation by Induction Type in the United States.

There are several choices for induction immunosuppression in kidney-after-liver transplantation. We used the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database. We assessed all kidney-after-liver transplant recipients in the United States between 1/1/2000 and 7/31/2017 to study kidney graft and patient outcomes by induction type. We only included patients discharged on tacrolimus and mycophenolate with or without steroids and had a negative crossmatch before kidney engraftment. We grouped recipients by kidney induction type into the following 3 groups: depletional (n = 550), nondepletional (n = 434), and no antibody induction (n = 144). We studied patient and kidney allograft survival using Cox proportional hazard regression, with transplant center included as a random effect. Models were adjusted for liver induction regimen, recipient and donor age, sex, human leukocyte antigen mismatches, payor type, living donor kidney transplantation, dialysis status, time from liver engraftment, hepatitis C virus status, and the presence of diabetes mellitus at time of kidney transplantation and transplantation year. The 6-month and 1-year rejection rates did not differ between groups. Compared with no induction, neither depletional nor nondepletional induction was associated with an improved recipient or graft survival in the multivariable models. Depletional induction at the time of liver transplantation was associated with worse patient survival after kidney transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-2.67; P = 0.02). Living donor kidney transplantation was associated with a 48.1% improved graft survival (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.33-0.82; P = 0.00). In conclusion, in the settings of a negative cross-match and maintenance with tacrolimus and mycophenolate, induction use was not associated with a patient or graft survival benefit in kidney-after-liver transplantations.

Incidence, risk factors, and long-term outcomes associated with antibody-mediated rejection - The long-term Deterioration of Kidney Allograft Function (DeKAF) prospective cohort study.

Major gaps remain in our understanding of antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) after kidney transplant. We examined the incidence, risk factors, response to treatment, and effects on outcomes of AMR at seven transplant programs in the long-term Deterioration of Kidney Allograft Function prospective study cohort. Among 3131 kidney recipients, there were 194 observed AMR cases (6.2%) during (mean ± SD) 4.85 ± 1.86 years of follow-up. Time to AMR was 0.97 ± 1.17 (median, 0.48) years. Risk factors for AMR included younger recipient age, human leukocyte antigen DR mismatches, panel-reactive antibody >0%, positive T- or B-cell cross-match, and delayed graft function. Compared with no AMR, the adjusted time-dependent hazard ratio for death-censored graft failure is 10.1 (95% confidence interval, 6.5-15.7) for all AMR patients, 4.0 (2.5, 9.1) for early AMR (<90 days after transplant), and 24.0 (14.0-41.1) for late AMR (≥90 days after transplant). Patients were treated with different therapeutic combinations. Of 194 kidney transplant recipients with AMR, 50 (25.8%) did not respond to treatment, defined as second AMR within 100 days or no improvement in estimated glomerular filtration rate by 42 days. Long-term outcomes after AMR are poor, regardless of the initial response to treatment. Better prevention and new therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term allograft survival.

Inflammation in areas of fibrosis: The DeKAF prospective cohort.

Inflammation in areas of fibrosis (i-IFTA) in posttransplant biopsy specimens has been associated with decreased death-censored graft survival (DC-GS). Additionally, an i-IFTA score ≥ 2 is part of the diagnostic criteria for chronic active TCMR (CA TCMR). We examined the impact of i-IFTA and t-IFTA (tubulitis in areas of atrophy) in the first biopsy for cause after 90 days posttransplant (n = 598); mean (SD) 1.7 ± 1.4 years posttransplant. I-IFTA, present in 196 biopsy specimens, was strongly correlated with t-IFTA, and Banff i. Of the 196, 37 (18.9%) had a previous acute rejection episode; 96 (49%) had concurrent i score = 0. Unlike previous studies, i-IFTA = 1 (vs 0) was associated with worse 3-year DC-GS: (i-IFTA = 0, 81.7%, [95% CI 77.7 to 85.9%]); i-IFTA = 1, 68.1%, [95% CI 59.7 to 77.6%]; i-IFTA = 2, 56.1%, [95% CI 43.2 to 72.8%], i-IFTA = 3, 48.5%, [95% CI 31.8 to 74.0%]). The association of i-IFTA with decreased DC-GS remained significant when adjusted for serum creatinine at the time of the biopsy, Banff i, ci and ct, C4d and DSA. T-IFTA was similarly associated with decreased DC-GS. Of these indication biopsies, those with i-IFTA ≥ 2, without meeting other criteria for CA TCMR had similar postbiopsy DC-GS as those with CA TCMR. Those with i-IFTA = 1 and t ≥ 2, ti ≥ 2 had postbiopsy DC-GS similar to CA TCMR. Biopsies with i-IFTA = 1 had similar survival as CA TCMR when biopsy specimens also met Banff criteria for TCMR and/or AMR. Studies of i-IFTA and t-IFTA in additional cohorts, integrating analyses of Banff scores meeting criteria for other Banff diagnoses, are needed.

Belatacept-based immunosuppression with simultaneous calcineurin inhibitor avoidance and early corticosteroid withdrawal: A prospective, randomized multicenter trial.

Simultaneous calcineurin inhibitor avoidance (CNIA) and early corticosteroid withdrawal (ESW) have not been achieved primarily due to excessive acute rejection. This trial compared 2 belatacept-based CNIA/ESW regimens with a tacrolimus-based ESW regimen. Kidney transplant recipients were randomized to receive alemtuzumab/belatacept, rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin (rATG)/belatacept, or rATG/tacrolimus. The combinatorial primary endpoint consisted of patient death, renal allograft loss, or a Modification of Diet in Renal Disease-calculated eGFR of <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 at 12 months. Results are reported by treatment group (alemtuzumab/belatacept, rATG/belatacept, and rATG/tacrolimus). Superiority was not observed at 1 year for the primary endpoint (9/107 [8.4%], 15/104 [14.4%], and 14/105 [13.3%], respectively; P = NS) for either belatacept-based regimen. Differences were not observed for secondary endpoints (death, death-censored graft loss, or estimated glomerular filtration rates < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 ). Differences were observed in biopsy-proved acute cellular rejection (10.3%, 18.3%, and 1.9%, respectively) (P < .001), but not in antibody-mediated rejection, mixed acute rejection, or de novo donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. Neurologic and electrolyte abnormality adverse events were less frequent under belatacept. Belatacept-based CNIA/ESW regimens did not prove to be superior for the primary or secondary endpoints. Belatacept-treated patients demonstrated an increase in biopsy-proved acute cellular rejection and reduced neurologic and metabolic adverse events. These results demonstrate that simultaneous CNIA/ESW is feasible without excessive acute rejection.

Predictors of Survival After Liver Transplantation in Patients With the Highest Acuity (MELD ≥40).

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that accurately predict 1-year survival for liver transplant recipients with a MELD score ≥40. BACKGROUND: Although transplant is beneficial for patients with the highest acuity (MELD ≥40), mortality in this group is high. Predicting which patients are likely to survive for >1 year would be medically and economically helpful. METHODS: The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database was reviewed to identify adult liver transplant recipients from 2002 through 2016 with MELD score ≥40 at transplant. The relationships between 44 recipient and donor factors and 1-year patient survival were examined using random survival forests methods. Variable importance measures were used to identify the factors with the strongest influence on survival, and partial dependence plots were used to determine the dependence of survival on the target variable while adjusting for all other variables. RESULTS: We identified 5309 liver transplants that met our criteria. The overall 1-year survival of high-acuity patients improved from 69% in 2001 to 87% in 2016. The strongest predictors of death within 1 year of transplant were patient on mechanical ventilator before transplantation, prior liver transplant, older recipient age, older donor age, donation after cardiac death, and longer cold ischemia. CONCLUSIONS: Liver transplant outcomes continue to improve even for patients with high medical acuity. Applying ensemble learning methods to recipient and donor factors available before transplant can predict survival probabilities for future transplant cases. This information can be used to facilitate donor/recipient matching and to improve informed consent.

Rapid discontinuation of prednisone in kidney transplant recipients from at-risk subgroups: an OPTN/SRTR analysis.

Although rapid discontinuation of prednisone (RDP) after kidney transplantation has been successful in low-risk recipients, there is concern about RDP use in recipients at increased risk for rejection or recurrent disease. Using SRTR, we compared outcomes for RDP versus maintenance prednisone-treated recipients for all adult 1st and 2nd transplants (n = 169 479) and the following 1st transplant subgroups: African American (AA); highly sensitized; those with a potentially recurrent disease; and pediatric recipients. For all adult 1st LD and DD transplants, RDP was associated with better patient and graft survival. For all LD subgroups, RDP and maintenance prednisone were associated with similar patient, graft, and death-censored (DC) graft survival. For 1st transplant DD subgroups, RDP was associated with better patient survival in AA, those with potentially recurrent disease, and pediatric recipients; graft survival with RDP was better in AAs. For adult 2nd DD transplants, RDP was associated with worse DC-graft survival. Importantly, for all differences, the effect size was small. With the exception of 2nd DD transplants, RDP protocols can be used without decreasing patient or graft survival for subgroups of 1st DD and LD kidney transplant recipients and for 2nd LD transplant recipients, at increased risk of rejection or recurrent disease.

Re-hospitalization after pediatric kidney transplant: A single-center study.

BACKGROUND: Little data exist on re-hospitalization rates in pediatric kidney recipients (KTx) particularly with the evolution of transplant immunosuppression. METHODS: In a single-center, retrospective study of pediatric KTx between 2006 and 2016, we assessed re-hospitalization after KTx admission, stratified by whether the re-admit was early (<30 days post-KTx discharge) or late (>30 days), and compared two different immunosuppression eras (one with and one without steroids). RESULTS: Of 197 KTx, 156 (79%) patients were re-hospitalized in 1st year, 85 (56%) within 30 days of discharge (total 490 1st year re-hospitalizations). Younger age was associated with early and late re-hospitalizations. African American race was associated with early re-hospitalizations. Of the 123 and 74 discharged on steroid-avoidance (maintenance immunosuppression included MMF in 95%; FK in 50%; CSA in 50%) and steroid-inclusive (AZA in 66%; MMF in 34%; FK in 30%; CSA in 70%), re-hospitalization rates, timing post-transplant, length, and number were not significantly different (P .38; .1; .56; .11). Admission diagnoses analysis demonstrated that steroid-avoidance recipients had anemia/leucopenia/thrombocytopenia, significantly more often, as one of their admission diagnoses (16% vs 4%; P < .001) and had a rejection diagnosis significantly less often (6% vs 18%; P < .001). Infection diagnoses were not statistically different between groups. Re-hospitalization, early or late, did not predict worse graft/ patient survival but predicted further hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: Re-hospitalization is common after pediatric transplant discharge and predicts further hospitalization regardless of discharge on or off steroids.

Pediatric retransplantation of the liver: A prognostic scoring tool.

Few prognostic models have been created in children that receive liver retransplantation (rLT). We examined the SRTR database of 731 children that underwent second liver transplant between 2002 and 2018. Proportional hazards models using backward variable selection were used to identify recipient, donor, and surgical characteristics associated with survival. A simple prognostic scoring system or nomogram (ie, each risk factor was weighted on a five-point scale) was constructed based on the fitted model. Recipient age (P < .001), MELD/PELD (P < .001), recipient ventilated (P = .003), donor cause of death (P = .024), graft type (P = .045), first graft loss due to biliary tract complications (P = .048), and survival time of the first graft (P = .006) were significant predictors of retransplant survival. The bias-corrected Harrell's C-index for the multivariable model was 0.63. Survival was significantly different (P < .001) for those at low risk (0-4 points), medium risk (5-7 points), and high risk (8+ points). Survival was equivalent between low risk pediatric second transplant recipients and pediatric primary liver transplant recipients (P = .67) but significantly worse for medium- (P < .001) and high-risk (P < .001) recipients. With simple clinical characteristics, this scoring tool can modestly discriminate between those children at high risk and those children at low risk of poor outcomes after second liver transplant.