Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS: To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS: We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting.

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national 're-opening' plan released in July 2021. Here, we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures-assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 60% to minimize public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.

Rapid prototyping of models for COVID-19 outbreak detection in workplaces.

Early case detection is critical to preventing onward transmission of COVID-19 by enabling prompt isolation of index infections, and identification and quarantining of contacts. Timeliness and completeness of ascertainment depend on the surveillance strategy employed. This paper presents modelling used to inform workplace testing strategies for the Australian government in early 2021. We use rapid prototype modelling to quickly investigate the effectiveness of testing strategies to aid decision making. Models are developed with a focus on providing relevant results to policy makers, and these models are continually updated and improved as new questions are posed. Developed to support the implementation of testing strategies in high risk workplace settings in Australia, our modelling explores the effects of test frequency and sensitivity on outbreak detection. We start with an exponential growth model, which demonstrates how outbreak detection changes depending on growth rate, test frequency and sensitivity. From the exponential model, we learn that low sensitivity tests can produce high probabilities of detection when testing occurs frequently. We then develop a more complex Agent Based Model, which was used to test the robustness of the results from the exponential model, and extend it to include intermittent workplace scheduling. These models help our fundamental understanding of disease detectability through routine surveillance in workplaces and evaluate the impact of testing strategies and workplace characteristics on the effectiveness of surveillance. This analysis highlights the risks of particular work patterns while also identifying key testing strategies to best improve outbreak detection in high risk workplaces.

Modelling mass drug administration strategies for reducing scabies burden in Monrovia, Liberia.

Scabies is a parasitic infestation with high global burden. Mass drug administrations (MDAs) are recommended for communities with a scabies prevalence of >10%. Quantitative analyses are needed to demonstrate the likely effectiveness of MDA recommendations. In this study, we developed an agent-based model of scabies transmission calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data from Monrovia. We used this model to compare the effectiveness of MDA scenarios for achieving scabies elimination and reducing scabies burden, as measured by time until recrudescence following delivery of an MDA and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted. Our model showed that three rounds of MDA delivered at six-month intervals and reaching 80% of the population could reduce prevalence below 2% for three years following the final round, before recrudescence. When MDAs were followed by increased treatment uptake, prevalence was maintained below 2% indefinitely. Increasing the number of and coverage of MDA rounds increased the probability of achieving elimination and the number of DALYs averted. Our results suggest that acute reduction of scabies prevalence by MDA can support a transition to improved treatment access. This study demonstrates how modelling can be used to estimate the expected impact of MDAs by projecting future epidemiological dynamics and health gains under alternative scenarios.

Evaluation of the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The Australian First Few X (FFX) Household Transmission Project for COVID-19 was the first prospective, multi-jurisdictional study of its kind in Australia. The project was undertaken as a partnership between federal and state health departments and the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE) and was active from April to October 2020. METHODS: We aimed to identify and explore the challenges and strengths of the Australian FFX Project to inform future FFX study development and integration into pandemic preparedness plans. We asked key stakeholders and partners involved with implementation to identify and rank factors relating to the strengths and challenges of project implementation in two rounds of modified Delphi surveys. Key representatives from jurisdictional health departments were then interviewed to contextualise findings within public health processes and information needs to develop a final set of recommendations for FFX study development in Australia. RESULTS: Four clear recommendations emerged from the evaluation. Future preparedness planning should aim to formalise and embed partnerships between health departments and researchers to help better integrate project data collection into core public health surveillance activities. The development of functional, adaptable protocols with pre-established ethics and governance approvals and investment in national data infrastructure were additional priority areas noted by evaluation participants. CONCLUSION: The evaluation provided a great opportunity to consolidate lessons learnt from the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project. The developed recommendations should be incorporated into future pandemic preparedness plans in Australia to enable effective implementation and increase local utility and value of the FFX platform within emergency public health response.

Having a real say: findings from first nations community panels on pandemic influenza vaccine distribution.

BACKGROUND: Recent deliberations by Australian public health researchers and practitioners produced an ethical framework of how decisions should be made to distribute pandemic influenza vaccine. The outcome of the deliberations was that the population should be considered in two categories, Level 1 and Level 2, with Level 1 groups being offered access to the pandemic influenza vaccine before other groups. However, the public health researchers and practitioners recognised the importance of making space for public opinion and sought to understand citizens values and preferences, especially First Nations peoples. METHODS: We conducted First Nations Community Panels in two Australian locations in 2019 to assess First Nations people's informed views through a deliberative process on pandemic influenza vaccination distribution strategies. Panels were asked to make decisions on priority levels, coverage and vaccine doses. RESULTS: Two panels were conducted with eighteen First Nations participants from a range of ages who were purposively recruited through local community networks. Panels heard presentations from public health experts, cross-examined expert presenters and deliberated on the issues. Both panels agreed that First Nations peoples be assigned Level 1 priority, be offered pandemic influenza vaccination before other groups, and be offered two doses of vaccine. Reasons for this decision included First Nations people's lives, culture and families are important; are at-risk of severe health outcomes; and experience barriers and challenges to accessing safe, quality and culturally appropriate healthcare. We found that communication strategies, utilising and upskilling the First Nations health workforce, and targeted vaccination strategies are important elements in pandemic preparedness and response with First Nations peoples. CONCLUSIONS: First Nations Community Panels supported prioritising First Nations peoples for pandemic influenza vaccination distribution and offering greater protection by using a two-dose full course to fewer people if there are initial supply limitations, instead of one dose to more people, during the initial phase of the vaccine roll out. The methodology and findings can help inform efforts in planning for future pandemic vaccination strategies for First Nations peoples in Australia.

Likelihood of prior exposure to circulating influenza viruses resulting in cross-protection by CD8+ T cells against emergent H3N2v swine viruses infecting humans.

Outbreaks of influenza in swine can result in potential threats to human public health. A notable occurrence was the emergence of swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses in 2009. Since then, there have been several documented outbreaks of swine-origin influenza infecting humans in several countries. Sustained events have occurred when H1N1v, H1N2v, and H3N2v swine-origin viruses have infected humans visiting agricultural shows in the US. The predominant H3N2v viruses gained the matrix protein from the A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, with reported human-to-human transmission raising fears of another pandemic. Current vaccines do not induce secondary cell-mediated immune responses, which may provide cross-protection against novel influenza A subtypes, however, population susceptibility to infection with seasonal influenza is likely to be influenced by cross-reactive CD8+ T-cells directed towards immunogenic peptides derived from viral proteins. This study involved a retrospective review of historical influenza viruses circulating in human populations from 1918 to 2020 to identify evidence of prior circulation of H3N3v immunogenic CD8+ T-cells peptides found in the NP and M1 proteins. We found evidence of prior circulation of H3N2v NP and M1 immunogenic peptides in historical influenza viruses. This provides insight into the population context in which influenza viruses emerge and may help inform immunogenic peptide selection for cytotoxic T-cell lymphocytes (CTL)-inducing influenza vaccines. Next-generation vaccines capable of eliciting CD8+ T-cell-mediated cross-protective immunity may offer a long-term alternative strategy for influenza vaccines.

Virology and immune dynamics reveal high household transmission of ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain.

BACKGROUND: Household studies are crucial for understanding the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which may be underestimated from PCR testing of respiratory samples alone. We aim to combine the assessment of household mitigation measures; nasopharyngeal, saliva, and stool PCR testing; along with mucosal and systemic SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, to comprehensively characterize SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in households. METHODS: Between March and September 2020, we obtained samples from 92 participants in 26 households in Melbourne, Australia, in a 4-week period following the onset of infection with ancestral SARS-CoV-2 variants. RESULTS: The secondary attack rate was 36% (24/66) when using nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) PCR positivity alone. However, when respiratory and nonrespiratory samples were combined with antibody responses in blood and saliva, the secondary attack rate was 76% (50/66). SARS-CoV-2 viral load of the index case and household isolation measures were key factors that determine secondary transmission. In 27% (7/26) of households, all family members tested positive by NPS for SARS-CoV-2 and were characterized by lower respiratory Ct values than low transmission families (Median 22.62 vs. 32.91; IQR 17.06-28.67 vs. 30.37-34.24). High transmission families were associated with enhanced plasma antibody responses to multiple SARS-CoV-2 antigens and the presence of neutralizing antibodies. Three distinguishing saliva SARS-CoV-2 antibody features were identified according to age (IgA1 to Spike 1, IgA1 to nucleocapsid protein (NP)), suggesting that adults and children generate distinct mucosal antibody responses during the acute phase of infection. CONCLUSION: Utilizing respiratory and nonrespiratory PCR testing, along with the measurement of SARS-CoV-2-specific local and systemic antibodies, provides a more accurate assessment of infection within households and highlights some of the immunological differences in response between children and adults.

Epidemiological consequences of enduring strain-specific immunity requiring repeated episodes of infection.

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) skin infections are caused by a diverse array of strain types and are highly prevalent in disadvantaged populations. The role of strain-specific immunity in preventing GAS infections is poorly understood, representing a critical knowledge gap in vaccine development. A recent GAS murine challenge study showed evidence that sterilising strain-specific and enduring immunity required two skin infections by the same GAS strain within three weeks. This mechanism of developing enduring immunity may be a significant impediment to the accumulation of immunity in populations. We used an agent-based mathematical model of GAS transmission to investigate the epidemiological consequences of enduring strain-specific immunity developing only after two infections with the same strain within a specified interval. Accounting for uncertainty when correlating murine timeframes to humans, we varied this maximum inter-infection interval from 3 to 420 weeks to assess its impact on prevalence and strain diversity, and considered additional scenarios where no maximum inter-infection interval was specified. Model outputs were compared with longitudinal GAS surveillance observations from northern Australia, a region with endemic infection. We also assessed the likely impact of a targeted strain-specific multivalent vaccine in this context. Our model produced patterns of transmission consistent with observations when the maximum inter-infection interval for developing enduring immunity was 19 weeks. Our vaccine analysis suggests that the leading multivalent GAS vaccine may have limited impact on the prevalence of GAS in populations in northern Australia if strain-specific immunity requires repeated episodes of infection. Our results suggest that observed GAS epidemiology from disease endemic settings is consistent with enduring strain-specific immunity being dependent on repeated infections with the same strain, and provide additional motivation for relevant human studies to confirm the human immune response to GAS skin infection.

Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data.

Prevalence of impetigo (skin sores) remains high in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, Fiji, and other areas of socio-economic disadvantage. Skin sore infections, driven primarily in these settings by Group A Streptococcus (GAS) contribute substantially to the disease burden in these areas. Despite this, estimates for the force of infection, infectious period and basic reproductive ratio-all necessary for the construction of dynamic transmission models-have not been obtained. By utilising three datasets each containing longitudinal infection information on individuals, we estimate each of these epidemiologically important parameters. With an eye to future study design, we also quantify the optimal sampling intervals for obtaining information about these parameters. We verify the estimation method through a simulation estimation study, and test each dataset to ensure suitability to the estimation method. We find that the force of infection differs by population prevalence, and the infectious period is estimated to be between 12 and 20 days. We also find that optimal sampling interval depends on setting, with an optimal sampling interval between 9 and 11 days in a high prevalence setting, and 21 and 27 days for a lower prevalence setting. These estimates unlock future model-based investigations on the transmission dynamics of skin sores.

Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities.

BACKGROUND: Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses. METHODS: An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households. A range of strategies for case finding, quarantining of contacts, testing, and lockdown were examined, following the silent introduction of a case. RESULTS: Multiple secondary infections are likely present by the time the first case is identified. Quarantine of close contacts, defined by extended household membership, can reduce peak infection prevalence from 60 to 70% to around 10%, but subsequent waves may occur when community mixing resumes. Exit testing significantly reduces ongoing transmission. Concurrent lockdown of non-quarantined households for 14 days is highly effective for epidemic control and reduces overall testing requirements; peak prevalence of the initial outbreak can be constrained to less than 5%, and the final community attack rate to less than 10% in modelled scenarios. Lockdown also mitigates the effect of a delay in the initial response. Compliance with lockdown must be at least 80-90%, however, or epidemic control will be lost. CONCLUSIONS: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will spread rapidly in remote communities. Prompt case detection with quarantining of extended-household contacts and a 14 day lockdown for all other residents, combined with exit testing for all, is the most effective strategy for rapid containment. Compliance is crucial, underscoring the need for community supported, culturally sensitive responses.

Longitudinal Analysis of Group A Streptococcus emm Types and emm Clusters in a High-Prevalence Setting: Relationship between Past and Future Infections.

Group A Streptococcus is a pathogen of global importance, but despite the ubiquity of group A Streptococcus infections, the relationship between infection, colonization, and immunity is still not completely understood. The M protein, encoded by the emm gene, is a major virulence factor and vaccine candidate and forms the basis of a number of classification systems. Longitudinal patterns of emm types collected from 457 Fijian schoolchildren over a 10-month period were analyzed. No evidence of tissue tropism was observed, and there was no apparent selective pressure or constraint of emm types. Patterns of emm type acquisition suggest limited, if any, modification of future infection based on infection history. Where impetigo is the dominant mode of transmission, circulating emm types either may not be constrained by ecological niches or population immunity to the M protein, or they may require several infections over a longer period of time to induce such immunity.

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.

The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.

Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis.

Freya Shearer and co-authors discuss the use of decision analysis in planning for infectious disease pandemics.

Perinatal risk factors associated with skin infection hospitalisation in Western Australian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal children.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalisation with skin infection in Western Australian (WA) Aboriginal children is common, with the highest rates in infants and children from remote WA. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify infant, maternal, and sociodemographic risk factors for skin infection hospitalisation in WA children, focussing on Aboriginal children aged <17 years. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study with linked perinatal and hospitalisation data on WA-born children (1996-2012), of whom 31 348 (6.7%) were Aboriginal. We used Cox regression to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and associated population attributable fractions (PAFs) for perinatal factors attributed to first hospitalisation with skin infection. To identify specific risk factors for early-onset infection, we further restricted the cohort to infants aged <1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 5439 (17.4%) Aboriginal and 6750 (1.5%) non-Aboriginal children were hospitalised at least once with a skin infection. Aboriginal infants aged <1 year had the highest skin infection hospitalisation rate (63.2 per 1000 child-years). The strongest risk factors in Aboriginal children aged <17 years were socio-economic disadvantage, very remote location at birth, and multi-parity (≥3 previous pregnancies) accounting for 24%, 23%, and 15% of skin infection hospitalisations, respectively. Other risk factors included maternal age <20 years, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: We have quantified the relative influence of perinatal risk factors associated with skin infection hospitalisations in WA children, providing measures indicating which factors have the potential to reduce the most hospitalisations. Our evidence not only supports existing calls for substantial government investment in addressing underlying social and environmental barriers to healthy skin in WA Aboriginal children but also identifies potential areas to target health promotion messaging at individuals/families on maternal smoking during pregnancy and skin hygiene for families.

Determining the Best Strategies for Maternally Targeted Pertussis Vaccination Using an Individual-Based Model.

Rising pertussis incidence has prompted a number of countries to implement maternally targeted vaccination strategies to protect vulnerable infants, but questions remain about the optimal design of such strategies. We simulated pertussis transmission within an individual-based model parameterized to match Australian conditions, explicitly linking infants and their mothers to estimate the effectiveness of alternative maternally targeted vaccination strategies (antenatal delivery vs. postnatal delivery) and the benefit of revaccination over the course of multiple pregnancies. For firstborn infants aged less than 2 months, antenatal immunization reduced annual pertussis incidence by 60%, from 780 per 100,000 firstborn children under age 2 months (interquartile range (IQR), 682-862) to 315 per 100,000 (IQR, 260-370), while postnatal vaccination produced a minimal reduction, with an incidence of 728 per 100,000 (IQR, 628-789). Subsequent infants obtained limited protection from a single antenatal dose, but revaccinating mothers during every pregnancy decreased incidence for these infants by 58%, from 1,878 per 100,000 subsequent children under age 2 months (IQR, 1,712-2,076) to 791 per 100,000 (IQR, 683-915). Subsequent infants also benefited from household-level herd immunity when antenatal vaccination for every pregnancy was combined with a toddler booster dose at age 18 months; incidence was reduced to 626 per 100,000 (IQR, 548-691). Our approach provides useful information to aid consideration of alternative maternally targeted vaccination strategies and can inform development of outcome measures for program evaluation.

A Role of Influenza Virus Exposure History in Determining Pandemic Susceptibility and CD8+ T Cell Responses.

UNLABELLED: Novel influenza viruses often cause differential infection patterns across different age groups, an effect that is defined as heterogeneous demographic susceptibility. This occurred during the A/H2N2 pandemic, when children experienced higher influenza attack rates than adults. Since the recognition of conserved epitopes across influenza subtypes by CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) limit influenza disease, we hypothesized that conservation of CTL antigenic peptides (Ag-p) in viruses circulating before the pH2N2-1957 may have resulted in differential CTL immunity. We compared viruses isolated in the years preceding the pandemic (1941 to 1957) to which children and adults were exposed to viruses circulating decades earlier (1918 to 1940), which could infect adults only. Consistent with phylogenetic models, influenza viruses circulating from 1941 to 1957, which infected children, shared with pH2N2 the majority (∼89%) of the CTL peptides within the most immunogenic nucleoprotein, matrix 1, and polymerase basic 1, thus providing evidence for minimal pH2N2 CTL escape in children. Our study, however, identified potential CTL immune evasion from pH2N2 irrespective of age, within HLA-A*03:01(+) individuals for PB1471-L473V/N476I variants and HLA-B*15:01(+) population for NP404-414-V408I mutant. Further experiments using the murine model of B-cell-deficient mice showed that multiple influenza infections resulted in superior protection from influenza-induced morbidity, coinciding with accumulation of tissue-resident memory CD8(+) T cells in the lung. Our study suggests that protection against H2N2-1957 pandemic influenza was most likely linked to the number of influenza virus infections prior to the pandemic challenge rather than differential preexisting CTL immunity. Thus, the regimen of a CTL-based vaccine/vaccine-component may benefit from periodic boosting to achieve fully protective, asymptomatic influenza infection. IMPORTANCE: Due to a lack of cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies, children are particularly susceptible to influenza infections caused by novel viral strains. Preexisting T cell immunity directed at conserved viral regions, however, can provide protection against influenza viruses, promote rapid recovery and better clinical outcomes. When we asked whether high susceptibility of children (compared to adults) to the pandemic H2N2 influenza strain was associated with immune evasion from T-cell immunity, we found high conservation within T-cell antigenic regions in pandemic H2N2. However, the number of influenza infections prior to the challenge was linked to protective, asymptomatic infections and establishment of tissue-resident memory T cells. Our study supports development of vaccines that prime and boost T cells to elicit cross-strain protective T cells, especially tissue-resident memory T cells, for lifelong immunity against distinct influenza viruses.

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host.

The cellular adaptive immune response plays a key role in resolving influenza infection. Experiments where individuals are successively infected with different strains within a short timeframe provide insight into the underlying viral dynamics and the role of a cross-reactive immune response in resolving an acute infection. We construct a mathematical model of within-host influenza viral dynamics including three possible factors which determine the strength of the cross-reactive cellular adaptive immune response: the initial naive T cell number, the avidity of the interaction between T cells and the epitopes presented by infected cells, and the epitope abundance per infected cell. Our model explains the experimentally observed shortening of a second infection when cross-reactivity is present, and shows that memory in the cellular adaptive immune response is necessary to protect against a second infection.