Protecting Caribbean patients diagnosed with cancer from compounding disasters.

Caribbean small island developing states are becoming increasingly vulnerable to compounding disasters, prominently featuring climate-related hazards and pandemic diseases, which exacerbate existing barriers to cancer control in the region. We describe the complexities of cancer prevention and control efforts throughout the Caribbean small island developing states, including the unique challenges of people diagnosed with cancer in the region. We highlight potential solutions and strategies that concurrently address disaster adaptation and cancer control. Because Caribbean small island developing states are affected first and worst by the hazards of compounding disasters, the innovative solutions developed in the region are relevant for climate mitigation, disaster adaptation, and cancer control efforts globally. In the age of complex and cascading disaster scenarios, developing strategies to mitigate their effect on the cancer control continuum, and protecting the health and safety of people diagnosed with cancer from extreme events become increasingly urgent. The equitable development of such strategies relies on collaborative efforts among professionals whose diverse expertise from complementary fields infuses the local community perspective while focusing on implementing solutions.

Disruptions in Oncology Care Confronted by Patients with Gynecologic Cancer Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico.

BACKGROUND: In September 2017, hurricanes Irma and Maria affected Puerto Rico (PR) and the US Virgin Islands (USVI), causing major disruptions in basic services and health care. This study documented the stressors and experiences of patients with gynecologic cancer receiving oncology care in PR following these hurricanes. METHODS: We conducted 4 focus groups (December 2018-April 2019) among women aged ≥21 years from PR who were diagnosed with gynecological cancer between September 2016 and September 2018 (n = 24). Using the same eligibility criteria, we also interviewed patients from the USVI (n = 2) who were treated in PR. We also conducted key-informant interviews with oncology care providers and administrators (n = 23) serving gynecologic cancer patients in PR. Discussions were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and coded to identify emergent themes using a constant comparison method. RESULTS: Analyses of focus group discussions and interviews allowed us to identify the following emergent themes: 1) disruptions in oncology care were common; 2) communication between oncology providers and patients was challenging before and after the hurricanes hit; 3) patient resilience was key to resume care; and 4) local communities provided much-needed social support and resources. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides firsthand information about the disruptions in oncology care experienced by and the resiliency of women with gynecologic cancer following hurricanes Irma and Maria. Our findings underscore the need to incorporate oncology care in the preparedness and response plans of communities, health systems, and government agencies to maintain adequate care for cancer patients during and after disasters such as hurricanes.

Weathering the pandemic: How the Caribbean Basin can use viral and environmental patterns to predict, prepare, and respond to COVID-19.

The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is developing at different paces throughout the world. Some areas, like the Caribbean Basin, have yet to see the virus strike at full force. When it does, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the consequent COVID-19 outbreaks will overwhelm healthcare systems and economies. This is particularly concerning in the Caribbean as pandemics can have disproportionately higher mortality impacts on lower and middle-income countries. Preliminary observations from our team and others suggest that temperature and climatological factors could influence the spread of this novel coronavirus, making spatiotemporal predictions of its infectiousness possible. This review studies geographic and time-based distribution of known respiratory viruses in the Caribbean Basin in an attempt to foresee how the pandemic will develop in this region. This review is meant to aid in planning short- and long-term interventions to manage outbreaks at the international, national, and subnational levels in the region.

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision making during the National Weather Service Heat Watches, Advisories, and Warning process.

Heat stress in the Caribbean: Climatology, drivers, and trends of human biometeorology indices.

Forty years (1980-2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological-relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade-1, with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade-1). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record-breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat-related policies in the region.

Perceptions of preparedness, timing of cancer diagnosis, and objective emergency preparedness among gynecological cancer patients in Puerto Rico before and after Hurricane Maria.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the impact of cancer diagnosis status, individual feelings of preparedness, and other covariates on objective emergency preparedness among women diagnosed with gynecological cancers before or after the 2017 Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico. METHODS: This study included 240 women who were interviewed by telephone from 9/2019-11/2020. Objective emergency preparedness was assessed using a list of six items. Subjective emergency preparedness was assessed by asking the women how prepared they felt (well, somewhat, or not at all) to face an emergency. Crude and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the associations (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) between variables of interest and objective preparedness. RESULTS: Before and after the hurricanes, 60% and 66% of women, respectively, were objectively prepared. Before the hurricanes, women reporting feeling well-prepared (vs. not prepared) (OR=9.31, 95%CI:3.96-21.91) and those who were diagnosed before (vs. after) the hurricanes (OR=1.71, 95%CI:0.95-3.09) were more likely to be objectively prepared. After the hurricanes, self-perceived well-preparedness (OR=2.46, 95% CI: 1.10-5.51) was positively associated with emergency preparedness when compared to feeling unprepared. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of emergency preparedness and having a cancer diagnosis increased the likelihood of being objectively prepared for an emergency. POLICY SUMMARY: This study demonstrates the need for state, territorial, and federal governments to include emergency preparedness plans for cancer patients in the Comprehensive Cancer Control plans. The study also indicates a need for cancer specific emergency preparedness information to be readily available for patients.

Environmental Stressors Suffered by Women with Gynecological Cancers in the Aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and María in Puerto Rico.

BACKGROUND: Hurricanes are the immediate ways that people experience climate impacts in the Caribbean. These events affect socio-ecological systems and lead to major disruptions in the healthcare system, having effects on health outcomes. In September 2017, Puerto Rico (PR) and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) experienced one of the most catastrophic hurricane seasons in recent history (Hurricane Irma was a Category 5 and Hurricane María was a Category 4 when they hit PR). OBJECTIVE: This study examines environmental stressors experienced by women with gynecologic (GYN) cancers from PR and USVI who received oncologic cancer care in PR, in the aftermath of the hurricanes. METHODS: A descriptive qualitative study design was used to obtain rich information for understanding the context, barriers, knowledge, perspectives, risks, vulnerabilities, and attitudes associated to these hurricanes. We performed focus groups among GYN cancer patients (n = 24) and key-informant interviews (n = 21) among health-care providers and administrators. Interviews were conducted from December 2018-April 2019. RESULTS: Environmental health stressors such as lack of water, heat and uncomfortable temperatures, air pollution (air quality), noise pollution, mosquitos, and rats ranked in the top concerns among cancer patients and key-informants. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are relevant to cancer patients, decision-makers, and health providers facing extreme events and disasters in the Caribbean. Identifying environmental secondary stressors and the most relevant cascading effects is useful for decision-makers so that they may address and mitigate the effects of hurricanes on public health and cancer care.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Dengue Fever Outbreak Predictions in the Northwest Coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Modelling dengue fever in endemic areas is important to mitigate and improve vector-borne disease control to reduce outbreaks. This study applied artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dengue fever outbreak occurrences in San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA), and in several coastal municipalities of the state of Yucatan, Mexico, based on specific thresholds. The models were trained with 19 years of dengue fever data for Puerto Rico and six years for Mexico. Environmental and demographic data included in the predictive models were sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, air temperature (i.e., minimum, maximum, and average), humidity, previous dengue cases, and population size. Two models were applied for each study area. One predicted dengue incidence rates based on population at risk (i.e., numbers of people younger than 24 years), and the other on the size of the vulnerable population (i.e., number of people younger than five years and older than 65 years). The predictive power was above 70% for all four model runs. The ANNs were able to successfully model dengue fever outbreak occurrences in both study areas. The variables with the most influence on predicting dengue fever outbreak occurrences for San Juan, Puerto Rico, included population size, previous dengue cases, maximum air temperature, and date. In Yucatan, Mexico, the most important variables were population size, previous dengue cases, minimum air temperature, and date. These models have predictive skills and should help dengue fever mitigation and management to aid specific population segments in the Caribbean region and around the Gulf of Mexico.