Demography's Changing Intellectual Landscape: A Bibliometric Analysis of the Leading Anglophone Journals, 1950-2020.

Much of what we know about the intellectual landscape of anglophone demography comes from two sources: subjective narratives authored by leaders in the field, whose reviews and observations are derived from their research experience and field-specific knowledge; and professional histories covering the field's foundational controversies, which tend to focus on individuals, institutions, and influence. Here we use bibliographic information from all articles published in the three leading journals of anglophone demography-Demography, Population Studies, and Population and Development Review-to survey the changing contours of anglophone demography's key research areas over the past 70 years. We characterize the field of demography by applying a two-pronged, data-grounded approach from the sociology of science. The first uses natural language processing that lets the substance of the field emerge from the contents of publication records and applies social network analyses to identify groups of papers that talk about the same thing. The second uses bibliometric tools to capture the "conversations" of demography with other disciplines. Our goals are to (1) identify the primary topics of demography since the discipline first gained prominence as an organized field; (2) assess changes in the field's intellectual cohesion and the topical areas that have grown or shrunk; and (3) examine how demographers place their work in relationship to other disciplines, the visibility and influence of demographic research in the broader scientific literature, and the cross-disciplinary translational reach of demographic research. Results provide a dynamic view of the field's scientific development in the second half of the twentieth century and the first two decades of the twenty-first century.

Using Social Networks to Sample Migrants and Study the Complexity of Contemporary Immigration: An Evaluation Study.

We test the effectiveness of a link-tracing sampling approach-network sampling with memory (NSM)-to recruit samples of rare immigrant populations with an application among Chinese immigrants in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina. NSM uses the population network revealed by data from the survey to improve the efficiency of link-tracing sampling and has been shown to substantially reduce design effects in simulated sampling. Our goals are to (1) show that it is possible to recruit a probability sample of a locally rare immigrant group using NSM and achieve high response rates; (2) demonstrate the feasibility of the collection and benefits of new forms of network data that transcend kinship networks in existing surveys and can address unresolved questions about the role of social networks in migration decisions, the maintenance of transnationalism, and the process of social incorporation; and (3) test the accuracy of the NSM approach for recruiting immigrant samples by comparison with the American Community Survey. Our results indicate feasibility, high performance, cost-effectiveness, and accuracy of the NSM approach to sample immigrants for studies of local immigrant communities. This approach can also be extended to recruit multisite samples of immigrants at origin and destination.

Brief Report: Respondent-driven Sampling Estimators Under Real and Theoretical Recruitment Conditions of Female Sex Workers in China.

We compare the performance of multiple respondent-driven sampling estimators under different sample recruitment conditions in hidden populations of female sex workers in the midst of China's ongoing epidemic of sexually transmitted infections. We first examine empirically calibrated simulations grounded in survey data to evaluate the relative performance of each estimator under ideal sampling conditions consistent with respondent-driven sampling assumptions and under conditions that mimic observed respondent-driven sampling recruitment processes. One estimator, which incorporates respondents' reports on their network of contacts, substantially out-performs the others under all conditions. We then apply the estimators to empirical samples of female sex workers collected in two Chinese cities that include unique data on respondents' networks. These empirical results are consistent with the simulation results, suggesting that traditional respondent-driven sampling estimators overestimate the proportion of female sex workers working in low tiers of sex work and are likely to overstate the sexually transmitted infection risk profiles of these populations.

An increasing socioeconomic gap in childhood overweight and obesity in China.

We used a new conceptual framework that integrates tenets from health economics, social epidemiology, and health behavior to analyze the impact of socioeconomic forces on the temporal changes in the socioeconomic status (SES) gap in childhood overweight and obesity in China. In data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey for 1991 to 2006, we found increased prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across all SES groups, but a greater increase among higher-SES children, especially after 1997, when income inequality dramatically increased. Our findings suggest that for China, the increasing SES gap in purchasing power for obesogenic goods, associated with rising income inequality, played a prominent role in the country's increasing SES gap in childhood obesity and overweight.

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Recruitment Patterns on RDS Estimates among a Socially Ordered Population of Female Sex Workers in China.

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a method for recruiting "hidden" populations through a network-based, chain and peer referral process. RDS recruits hidden populations more effectively than other sampling methods and promises to generate unbiased estimates of their characteristics. RDS's faithful representation of hidden populations relies on the validity of core assumptions regarding the unobserved referral process. With empirical recruitment data from an RDS study of female sex workers (FSWs) in Shanghai, we assess the RDS assumption that participants recruit nonpreferentially from among their network alters. We also present a bootstrap method for constructing the confidence intervals around RDS estimates. This approach uniquely incorporates real-world features of the population under study (e.g., the sample's observed branching structure). We then extend this approach to approximate the distribution of RDS estimates under various peer recruitment scenarios consistent with the data as a means to quantify the impact of recruitment bias and of rejection bias on the RDS estimates. We find that the hierarchical social organization of FSWs leads to recruitment biases by constraining RDS recruitment across social classes and introducing bias in the RDS estimates.

A comparison of respondent-driven and venue-based sampling of female sex workers in Liuzhou, China.

OBJECTIVES: To compare two methods for sampling female sex workers (FSWs) for bio-behavioural surveillance. We compared the populations of sex workers recruited by the venue-based Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) method and a concurrently implemented network-based sampling method, respondent-driven sampling (RDS), in Liuzhou, China. METHODS: For the PLACE protocol, all female workers at a stratified random sample of venues identified as places where people meet new sexual partners were interviewed and tested for syphilis. Female workers who reported sex work in the past 4 weeks were categorised as FSWs. RDS used peer recruitment and chain referral to obtain a sample of FSWs. Data were collected between October 2009 and January 2010. We compared the socio-demographic characteristics and the percentage with a positive syphilis test of FSWs recruited by PLACE and RDS. RESULTS: The prevalence of a positive syphilis test was 24% among FSWs recruited by PLACE and 8.5% among those recruited by RDS and tested (prevalence ratio 3.3; 95% CI 1.5 to 7.2). Socio-demographic characteristics (age, residence and monthly income) also varied by sampling method. PLACE recruited fewer FSWs than RDS (161 vs 583), was more labour-intensive and had difficulty gaining access to some venues. RDS was more likely to recruit from areas near the RDS office and from large low prevalence entertainment venues. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance protocols using different sampling methods can obtain different estimates of prevalence and population characteristics. Venue-based and network-based methods each have strengths and limitations reflecting differences in design and assumptions. We recommend that more research be conducted on measuring bias in bio-behavioural surveillance.

Systematic differences in risk behaviors and syphilis prevalence across types of female sex workers: a preliminary study in Liuzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: Female sex workers (FSWs) have become one of the key populations for HIV/STI control in China. Categorization of FSWs can help prioritize HIV/STI intervention efforts. We examined 2 possible categorizations of FSWs and the relationship with syphilis infection risk in Liuzhou City, China. METHODS: From October 2009 to February 2010, a total of 583 FSWs recruited by respondent-driven sampling in a cross-sectional survey were tested for syphilis and interviewed to collect sociodemographic and behavioral information. Respondents were categorized based on transaction price for vaginal sex and type of sex work location. The relationship between the 2 categorizations and syphilis infection risk was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of lifetime and active syphilis infection were 8.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Lifetime and active syphilis prevalence was higher among FSWs in the lowest price category (52.7% and 25.4%, respectively) and those working in streets (69.7% and 39.8%, respectively) or through telephone (46.3% and 17.0%, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that lifetime syphilis prevalence was significantly higher among street- (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 38.7, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 10.7-139.9) and telephone-based FSWs (AOR: 10.8, 95% CI: 3.3-35.1), and that active syphilis prevalence was significantly higher among street-based FSWs (AOR: 15.2, 95% CI: 3.7-62.1) after adjusting for demographic and behavioral factors. CONCLUSIONS: Categorization based on sex work location was more closely related to the risk of syphilis infection than the price classification. Street- and telephone-based FSWs had significantly higher risk of syphilis infection. Focused interventions among these particular high-risk FSWs subgroups are warranted.

Using Electronic Health Records to understand the population of local children captured in a large health system in Durham County, NC, USA, and implications for population health research.

Although local policies aimed at reducing childhood health inequities can benefit from local data, sample size constraints in population representative health surveys often prevent rigorous evaluations of child health disparities and health care patterns at local levels. Electronic Health Records (EHRs) offer a possible solution as they contain large amounts of information on pediatric patients within a health system. In this paper, we consider the suitability of using EHRs from a large health system to study local children's health by evaluating the extent to which the EHRs capture the county's child population. First, we compare the demographic characteristics of Duke University Health System pediatric patients who live in Durham County, NC (USA) to the child population estimates in the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We then examine geographic variation in census tract rates of children captured in the EHR data and estimate negative binomial models to assess how tract characteristics are associated with these rates. We also perform these analyses for the subset of pediatric patients who have a well-child encounter. We find that the demographic characteristics of pediatric patients captured by the EHRs are similar to those of the county's child population. Although the county rate of children captured in the EHRs is high, there is variation across census tracts. On average, census tracts with higher concentrations of non-Hispanic Black residents have lower capture rates and tracts with higher concentrations of poverty have higher capture rates, with the poorest tracts showing the largest racial gap in rates of children captured by EHRs. Our findings suggest that EHRs from a large health system can be used to assess children's population health, but that EHR-based evaluations of children's health disparities and health care patterns should account for differences in who is captured by the EHRs based on census tract characteristics.

The impact of two types of COVID-19-related discrimination and contemporaneous stressors on Chinese immigrants in the US South.

The global rise of the COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an increase in anti-Asian discrimination with potentially deleterious effects on individuals of Asian descent. In the present study, we examine how two types of COVID-19-related anti-Asian discrimination and other contemporaneous stressors independently contribute to perceptions of stress in a population-representative sample of Chinese immigrants in North Carolina, as well as the moderating role of ethnic identity on the association between COVID-related discrimination and stress. Analyses rely on data collected among participants ages 18+ in the Chinese Immigrants in Raleigh-Durham (ChIRDU) study who completed surveys in 2018 and during the COVID-19 pandemic (July-September 2020). We utilize ordinary least squares regressions to examine associations of two types of COVID-related discrimination (measured by changes in perceptions of being feared by others and racism-related vigilance) and contemporaneous stressors (measured by general COVID-19-related stressors and acculturative stressors) with perceptions of stress by respondents' pre-pandemic reports of ethnic identity. Controlling for sociodemographic predictors and other stressors, racism-related vigilance is significantly associated with higher perceived stress for Chinese immigrants who identify as completely Chinese. For those who identify as at least partly American, new perceptions of being feared by others during the pandemic are significantly associated with higher perceived stress. Acculturative and COVID-related stressors are independently associated with higher perceived stress for both groups. These results suggest that COVID-related anti-Asian discrimination aggravates the psychological burden of multiple stressors in Chinese immigrants' lives by uniquely contributing to perceptions of stress alongside contemporaneous stressors. The results also highlight the heterogeneous mental health needs of Chinese immigrants and hold important implications for intervention development in the community studied here as well as in other Chinese communities in the US.

Understanding Bachelorhood in Poverty-stricken and High Sex Ratio Settings: An Exploratory Study in Rural Shaanxi, China.

Coupled with the social practice of female hypergamy, the male surplus within the never-married population means that today's Chinese marriage market is extremely tight in particular for men from a rural background and the least privileged socio-economic categories. Drawing on quantitative data from a survey conducted in 2014-2015, this article sheds light on the situation of single men who are past prime marriage age in three rural districts of Shaanxi particularly affected by this phenomenon. It compares single men's characteristics to those of their married counterparts and offers insights into the heterogeneity of single men with the aim of challenging some commonly accepted assumptions about bachelorhood in rural China. Results suggest a strong internalization of the various characteristics, centred on being able to offer social mobility to a potential wife, that a man is expected to have to be attractive to women in a context where women have more choice in mate selection. We conclude that mate selection is highly marked by class, social norms, social interactions, health, generation and age, and requires the mobilization of certain amounts of individual, social and economic resources. Unwanted bachelorhood would thus be better understood using an intersectional approach rather than mainly in numeric terms.

Sampling Migrants from their Social Networks: The Demography and Social Organization of Chinese Migrants in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

The streams of Chinese migration to Africa are growing in tandem with rising Chinese investments and trade flows in and to the African continent. In spite of the high profile of this phenomenon in the media, there are few rich and broad descriptions of Chinese communities in Africa. Reasons for this include the rarity of official statistics on foreign-born populations in African censuses, the absence of predefined sampling frames required to draw representative samples with conventional survey methods and difficulties to reach certain segments of this population. Here, we use a novel network-based approach, Network Sampling with Memory, which overcomes the challenges of sampling 'hidden' populations in the absence of a sampling frame, to recruit a sample of recent Chinese immigrants in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and collect information on the demographic characteristics, migration histories and social ties of members of this sample. These data reveal a heterogeneous Chinese community composed of "state-led" migrants who come to Africa to work on projects undertaken by large Chinese state-owned enterprises and "independent" migrants who come on their own accord to engage in various types of business ventures. They offer a rich description of the demographic profile and social organization of this community, highlight key differences between the two categories of migrants and map the structure of the social ties linking them. We highlight needs for future research on inter-group differences in individual motivations for migration, economic activities, migration outcomes, expectations about future residence in Africa, social integration and relations with local communities.

Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?

China's HIV prevalence is low, mainly concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs), their clients, men who have sex with men, and the stable partners of members of these high-risk groups. We evaluate the contribution to the spread of HIV of China's regime of heterosexual relations, of the structure of heterosexual networks, and of the attributes of key population groups with simulations driven by data from a cross-sectional survey of egocentric sexual networks of the general population of Shanghai and from a concurrent respondent-driven sample of FSWs. We find that the heterosexual network generated by our empirically calibrated simulations has low levels of partner change, strong constraints on partner selection by age and education, and a very small connected core, mainly comprising FSWs and their clients and characterized by a fragile transmission structure. This network has a small HIV epidemic potential but is compatible with the transmission of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as syphilis, which are less susceptible to structural breaks in transmission of infection. Our results suggest that policies that force commercial sex underground could have an adverse effect on the spread of HIV and other STIs.

Challenges to recruiting population representative samples of female sex workers in China using Respondent Driven Sampling.

We explore the network coverage of a sample of female sex workers (FSWs) in China recruited through Respondent Drive Sampling (RDS) as part of an effort to evaluate the claim of RDS of population representation with empirical data. We take advantage of unique information on the social networks of FSWs obtained from two overlapping studies--RDS and a venue-based sampling approach (PLACE)--and use an exponential random graph modeling (ERGM) framework from local networks to construct a likely network from which our observed RDS sample is drawn. We then run recruitment chains over this simulated network to assess the assumption that the RDS chain referral process samples participants in proportion to their degree and the extent to which RDS satisfactorily covers certain parts of the network. We find evidence that, contrary to assumptions, RDS oversamples low degree nodes and geographically central areas of the network. Unlike previous evaluations of RDS which have explored the performance of RDS sampling chains on a non-hidden population, or the performance of simulated chains over previously mapped realistic social networks, our study provides a robust, empirically grounded evaluation of the performance of RDS chains on a real-world hidden population.

Respondent driven sampling is an effective method for engaging methamphetamine users in HIV prevention research in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa, in the midst of the world's largest HIV epidemic, has a growing methamphetamine problem. Respondent driven sampling (RDS) is a useful tool for recruiting hard-to-reach populations in HIV prevention research, but its use with methamphetamine smokers in South Africa has not been described. This study examined the effectiveness of RDS as a method for engaging methamphetamine users in a Cape Town township into HIV behavioral research. METHODS: Standard RDS procedures were used to recruit active methamphetamine smokers from a racially diverse peri-urban township in Cape Town. Effectiveness of RDS was determined by examining social network characteristics (network size, homophily, and equilibrium) of recruited participants. RESULTS: Beginning with eight seeds, 345 methamphetamine users were enrolled over 6 months, with a coupon return rate of 67%. The sample included 197 men and 148 women who were racially diverse (73% Coloured, 27% Black African) and had a mean age of 28.8 years (SD=7.2). Social networks were adequate (mean network size >5) and mainly comprised of close social ties. Equilibrium on race was reached after 11 waves of recruitment, and after ≤3 waves for all other variables of interest. There was little to moderate preference for either in- or out-group recruiting in all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that RDS is an effective method for engaging methamphetamine users into HIV prevention research in South Africa. Additionally, RDS may be a useful strategy for seeking high-risk methamphetamine users for HIV testing and linkage to HIV care in this and other low resource settings.

Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.

China has joined the group of low-fertility countries; it has a TFR somewhere in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Much speculation about China's future fertility depends on whether individual's fertility intentions and preferences are much higher than the state's fertility goals. If so, then a relaxation of family planning restrictions could lead to a substantial fertility increase. We directly ask a probability sample of Shanghai registered residents and migrants whether a policy relaxation would lead them to have additional children. Our results show that small families (one or two children) are intended in this urban setting. If family planning policy were relaxed, a relatively small fraction (fewer than 14%) reports that they would revise their intentions upward. Even this modest increase (as much as 10%) is suspect because factors that can deflate fertility relative to intentions are likely more powerful than the inflationary ones (in Shanghai). These empirical findings help ground speculations on the future of fertility in the hypothetical absence of policy constraints.

Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences?

Has China's strict one-child policy been successful in changing fertility preferences? Using linked data from surveys conducted in four counties of northern China in 1991 and 1994, we compare reproductive behavior against prior fertility preferences and show when and where women change from wanting to not wanting more children. The acceptance of policy-sanctioned family size follows a development gradient and reflects the degree of enforcement. High acceptance occurs in the most urban, industrialized county and in the county with the most rigid family planning policy. Acceptance is weaker among women living in the poorest county and in the county where enforcement is most lenient.