Committee Opinion No. 399: Management of Tick Bites and Lyme Disease During Pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: Lyme disease is an emerging infection in Canada caused by the bacterium belonging to the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species complex, which is transmitted via the bite of an infected blacklegged tick. Populations of blacklegged ticks continue to expand and are now established in different regions in Canada. It usually takes more than 24 hours of tick attachment to transfer B. burgdorferi to a human. The diagnosis of early localized Lyme disease is made by clinical assessment, as laboratory tests are not reliable at this stage. Most patients with early localized Lyme disease will present with a skin lesion (i.e., erythema migrans) expanding from the tick bite site and/or non-specific "influenza-like" symptoms (e.g., arthralgia, myalgia, and fever). Signs and symptoms may occur from between 3 and 30 days following the tick bite. The care of pregnant patients with a tick bite or suspected Lyme disease should be managed similarly to non-pregnant adults, including the consideration of antibiotics for prophylaxis and treatment. The primary objective of this committee opinion is to inform practitioners about Lyme disease and provide an approach to managing the care of pregnant women who may have been infected via a blacklegged tick bite. INTENDED USERS: Health care providers who care for pregnant women or women of reproductive age. TARGET POPULATION: Women of reproductive age. EVIDENCE: In November 2018, Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, and CENTRAL databases were searched for 2 main categories: (1) Lyme disease and (2) other tick-borne diseases. Because the main focus was Lyme disease, and considering the limited number of the articles, no further filters were applied for publication time or type of study. For other tick-borne diseases, the results were restricted to a publication date within the last 10 years (2008-2018). The search terms were developed using MeSH terms and keywords including Lyme Disease, Pregnancy, Pregnant Women, Pregnancy Complications, Ehrlichiosis, Anaplasmosis, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Babesiosis, Tularemia, Powassan Virus, Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne, Tick-Borne Diseases, Colorado Tick Fever, Q Fever, Relapsing Fever, and Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness. All articles on Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases with a target population of pregnant women were included; other groups and populations were excluded. VALIDATION METHODS: The content and recommendations of this committee opinion were drafted and agreed upon by the authors. The Board of Directors of the Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada approved the final draft for publication.

Death of a 29-Year-Old Male from Undifferentiated Sepsis.

Tumour necrosis factor alpha inhibitors, such as infliximab, and other biologic agents are associated with increased risk of opportunistic infection, including tuberculosis. Tuberculosis infections associated with infliximab tend to present atypically and can be difficult to diagnose, as they are more likely to manifest as extrapulmonary or disseminated disease. The authors report a case involving a 29-year-old male patient who died following 16 days of treatment for undifferentiated sepsis and who was found on autopsy to have widespread disseminated tuberculosis. Prior to the onset of illness, the patient had received infliximab for the treatment of Crohn's disease. Following discussion of the case, the authors review the definition of adverse events, provide a root cause analysis of the cognitive errors and breakdowns in the health care system that contributed to the reported outcome, and identify opportunities to address these breakdowns and improve patient safety measures for future cases.

Opinion du comité No 399 : Prise en charge des morsures de tiques et de la maladie de Lyme pendant la grossesse.

Objectif: La maladie de Lyme est une infection émergente au Canada. Causée par une bactérie appartenant au complexe d'espèces Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, elle est transmise par la morsure d'une tique à pattes noires infectée. Les populations de tiques à pattes noires continuent de se propager et sont maintenant établies dans différentes régions du Canada. Il faut habituellement plus de 24 heures de temps d'attachement de la tique pour que la B. burgdorferi soit transmise à l'humain. Le diagnostic de la maladie de Lyme au stade localisé précoce est posé au moyen d'une évaluation clinique, puisque les analyses de laboratoire ne sont pas fiables à ce stade. La plupart des patients atteints de la maladie de Lyme au stade localisé précoce manifestent une lésion cutanée (c.-à-d. érythème migrant) qui s'étend à partir du site de la morsure et/ou des symptômes non spécifiques qui rappellent l'influenza (p. ex. arthralgie, myalgie et fièvre). Les signes et symptômes peuvent se manifester de 3 à 30 jours après la morsure de tique. Il y a lieu de prendre en charge les patientes enceintes qui présentent une morsure de tique ou une maladie de Lyme soupçonnée en leur prodiguant des soins semblables à ceux de la population adulte non enceinte, ce qui implique d'envisager le recours aux antibiotiques pour la prophylaxie et le traitement. L'objectif principal de la présente opinion du comité est de renseigner les praticiens sur la maladie de Lyme et de fournir une façon d'aborder la prise en charge des soins prodigués aux femmes enceintes qui pourraient avoir été infectées par une morsure de tique à pattes noires. Utilisateurs concernés: Les fournisseurs de soins de santé qui prodiguent des soins aux patientes enceintes ou aux femmes en âge de procréer. Population cible: Les femmes en âge de procréer. Données probantes: En novembre 2018, des recherches ont été effectuées dans les bases de données Medline, EMBASE, PubMed et CENTRAL relativement à deux catégories principales : (1) maladie de Lyme, (2) autres maladies transmises par les tiques. Puisque la recherche était principalement axée sur la maladie de Lyme et compte tenu du nombre limité d'articles à ce sujet, aucun filtre supplémentaire n'a été appliqué pour la date de publication ou le type d'étude. Pour ce qui est des autres maladies transmises par les tiques, les résultats ont été restreints à une date de publication qui s'inscrit dans les 10 dernières années (2008­2018). Les termes de recherche ont été déterminés au moyen des termes de recherche MeSH et de mots clés : Lyme Disease, Pregnancy, Pregnant Women, Pregnancy Complications, Ehrlichiosis, Anaplasmosis, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Babesiosis, Tularemia, Powassan Virus, Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne, Tick-Borne Diseases, Colorado Tick Fever, Q Fever, Relapsing Fever, et Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness. Tous les articles portant sur la maladie de Lyme et autres maladies transmises par les tiques comprenant une population cible de femmes enceintes ont été inclus; les autres groupes et populations ont été exclus. Méthodes de validation: Le contenu et les recommandations de la présente opinion du comité ont été rédigés et acceptés par les auteurs. Le conseil d'administration de la Société des obstétriciens et gynécologues du Canada a approuvé la version définitive aux fins de publication.

Association between socio-economic status and hemoglobin A1c levels in a Canadian primary care adult population without diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Hgb A1c levels may be higher in persons without diabetes of lower socio-economic status (SES) but evidence about this association is limited; there is therefore uncertainty about the inclusion of SES in clinical decision support tools informing the provision and frequency of Hgb A1c tests to screen for diabetes. We studied the association between neighborhood-level SES and Hgb A1c in a primary care population without diabetes. METHODS: This is a retrospective study using data routinely collected in the electronic medical records (EMRs) of forty six community-based family physicians in Toronto, Ontario. We analysed records from 4,870 patients without diabetes, age 45 and over, with at least one clinical encounter between January 1st 2009 and December 31st 2011 and one or more Hgb A1c report present in their chart during that time interval. Residential postal codes were used to assign neighborhood deprivation indices and income levels by quintiles. Covariates included elements known to be associated with an increase in the risk of incident diabetes: age, gender, family history of diabetes, body mass index, blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and fasting blood glucose. RESULTS: The difference in mean Hgb A1c between highest and lowest income quintiles was -0.04% (p = 0.005, 95% CI -0.07% to -0.01%), and between least deprived and most deprived was -0.05% (p = 0.003, 95% CI -0.09% to -0.02%) for material deprivation and 0.02% (p = 0.2, 95% CI -0.06% to 0.01%) for social deprivation. After adjustment for covariates, a marginally statistically significant difference in Hgb A1c between highest and lowest SES quintile (p = 0.04) remained in the material deprivation model, but not in the other models. CONCLUSIONS: We found a small inverse relationship between Hgb A1c and the material aspects of SES; this was largely attenuated once we adjusted for diabetes risk factors, indicating that an independent contribution of SES to increasing Hgb A1c may be limited. This study does not support the inclusion of SES in clinical decision support tools that inform the use of Hgb A1c for diabetes screening.

Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Multi-Location Time Series to Model Seasonal Influenza Spread.

Although seasonal influenza disease spread is a spatio-temporal phenomenon, public surveillance systems aggregate data only spatially, and are rarely predictive. We develop a hierarchical clustering-based machine learning tool to anticipate flu spread patterns based on historical spatio-temporal flu activity, where we use historical influenza-related emergency department records as a proxy for flu prevalence. This analysis replaces conventional geographical hospital clustering with clusters based on both spatial and temporal distance between hospital flu peaks to generate a network illustrating whether flu spreads between pairs of clusters (direction) and how long that spread takes (magnitude). To overcome data sparsity, we take a model-free approach, treating hospital clusters as a fully-connected network, where arcs indicate flu transmission. We perform predictive analysis on the clusters' time series of flu ED visits to determine direction and magnitude of flu travel. Detection of recurrent spatio-temporal patterns may help policymakers and hospitals better prepare for outbreaks. We apply this tool to Ontario, Canada using a five-year historical dataset of daily flu-related ED visits, and find that in addition to expected flu spread between major cities/airport regions, we were able to illuminate previously unsuspected patterns of flu spread between non-major cities, providing new insights for public health officials. We showed that while a spatial clustering outperforms a temporal clustering in terms of the direction of the spread (81% spatial v. 71% temporal), the opposite is true in terms of the magnitude of the time lag (20% spatial v. 70% temporal).

Integration of primary health care and public health during a public health emergency.

We have provided a detailed evaluation of how collaboration between an Ontario public health unit and its primary care providers facilitated an optimal response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Family health teams (integrated, interdisciplinary teams that provide a range of care options) provided flu assessment centers, with public health as a partner providing infection control advice, funding, coordination, antiviral medication, clinical care guidelines, supplemental nurse staffing, and arrangement of communication strategies with the public. The family health team structure offers a new capacity for timely, coordinated, and comprehensive response to public health emergencies, in partnership with public health, and provides a promising new direction for healthcare organization.

Management of tick bites and lyme disease during pregnancy.

Lyme disease results from the bite of a black-legged tick, populations of which have now become established in parts of Nova Scotia, southeastern Quebec, southern Ontario from the Thousand Islands through the geographic regions on the north shore of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, southeastern Manitoba, and British Columbia's Lower Mainland, Fraser Valley, and Vancouver Island. It takes more than 24 hours of attachment to transfer the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi to the bitten animal or human. The diagnosis of Lyme disease is primarily clinical, with early Lyme disease characterized by a skin lesion (erythema migrans, a bull's-eye rash), which expands out from the site of the tick bite, and is often accompanied by influenza-like symptoms, arthralgia, myalgia, and fever. These signs and symptoms can present anywhere from three to 30 days after the tick bite. The management of pregnant women with a tick bite or suspected Lyme disease should be similar to that of non-pregnant adults, except that doxycyline, the first line antibiotic of choice, should not be used in pregnant women because of risk of permanent tooth discolouration and possible impact on bone formation in the fetus. An algorithm for the management of tick bites in pregnancy is presented. Clinical, serological, and epidemiological studies have all failed to demonstrate a causal association between infection with B. burgdorferi and any adverse pregnancy outcomes regardless of whether maternal exposure occurs before conception or during pregnancy itself.

Prescription opioid characteristics at initiation for non-cancer pain and risk of treated opioid use disorder: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term prescription opioid use has been associated with adverse health outcomes, including opioid use disorder (OUD). We examined a population of opioid naïve individuals who initiated prescription opioids for non-cancer pain and investigated the associations between opioid prescription characteristics at initiation and time to treated OUD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada among opioid naïve individuals aged 15 years and older dispensed an opioid for non-cancer pain between 2013 and 2016. We used the Narcotic Monitoring System to abstract opioid dispensing data. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to examine the association between average daily dose and time to treated OUD. RESULTS: We identified 1,607,659 opioid-naïve individuals who initiated a prescription opioid within the study period. The incidence of treated OUD within the study period was 86 cases per 100,000 person-years. Compared to an average daily dose of <20 morphine milligrams equivalent (MME), higher average daily doses at initiation were associated with greater hazard of treated OUD, 20-50 MME (HR 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.21), >50-90 MME (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.44), >90-150 MME (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.56), >150-200 MME (HR 2.49, 95% CI: 1.54, 4.03) and >200 MME (HR 4.15, 95% CI: 2.89, 5.97). Long-acting formulations and days' supply ≥11 days were also associated with greater hazard of treated OUD. CONCLUSION: Prescription opioid characteristics at initiation are associated with risk of treated OUD, identifying potentially important and modifiable risk factors among people initiating opioids for non-cancer pain.

A comparison of methods for forecasting emergency department visits for respiratory illness using telehealth Ontario calls.

OBJECTIVES: Anticipating increases in hospital emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory illness could help time interventions such as opening flu clinics to reduce surges in ED visits. Five different methods for estimating ED visits for respiratory illness from Telehealth Ontario calls are compared, including two non-linear modeling methods. Daily visit estimates up to 14 days in advance were made at the health unit level for all 36 Ontario health units. METHODS: Telehealth calls from June 1, 2004 to March 14, 2006 were included. Estimates generated by regression, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), Numerical Methods for Subspace State Space Identification (N4SID), Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), and Parallel Cascade Identification (PCI) were compared to the actual number of ED visits for respiratory illness identified from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) database. Model predictor variables included Telehealth Ontario calls and upcoming holidays/weekends. Models were fit using the first 304 days of data and prediction accuracy was measured over the remaining 348 days. RESULTS: Forecast accuracy was significantly better (p < 0.0001) for the 12 Ontario health units with a population over 400,000 (75% of the Ontario population) than for smaller health units. Compared to regression, FOS produced better estimates (p = 0.03) while there was no significant improvement for PCI-based estimates. FOS, PCI, EWMA and N4SID performed worse than regression over the remaining smaller health units. CONCLUSION: Telehealth can be used to estimate ED visits for respiratory illness at the health unit level. Non-linear modeling methods produced better estimates than regression in larger health units.

Real-time surveillance for respiratory disease outbreaks, Ontario, Canada.

To validate the utility of a chief complaint-based emergency department surveillance system, we compared it with respiratory diagnostic data and calls to Telehealth Ontario about respiratory disease. This local syndromic surveillance system accurately monitored status of respiratory diseases in the community and contributed to early detection of respiratory disease outbreaks.

Telehealth Ontario detection of gastrointestinal illness outbreaks.

OBJECTIVE: Prompt detection of infectious disease outbreaks and rapid introduction of mitigation strategies is a primary concern for public health, emergency and security management organizations. Traditional surveillance methods rely on astute clinical detection and reporting of disease or laboratory confirmation. Although effective, these methods are slow, dependent on physician compliance and delay timely, effective intervention. To address these issues, syndromic surveillance programs have been integrated into the health care system at the earliest points of access; in Ontario, these points are primary care providers, emergency departments (ED), and Telehealth Ontario. This study explores the role of Telehealth Ontario, a telephone helpline, as an early warning system for detection of gastrointestinal (GI) illness. METHODS: Retrospective time-series analysis of the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) ED discharges and Telehealth Ontario data for GI illness from June 1, 2004 to March 31, 2006. RESULTS: Telehealth Ontario recorded 184,904 calls and the NACRS registered 34,499 ED visits for GI illness. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was calculated to be 0.90 (p < 0.0001). Time-series analysis resulted in significant correlation at lag (weekly) 0 indicating that increases in Telehealth Ontario call volume correlate with increases in NACRS data for GI illness. CONCLUSION: Telehealth Ontario call volume fluctuation reflects directly on ED GI visit data on a provincial basis. Telehealth Ontario GI call complaints are a timely, novel and representative data stream that shows promise for integration into a real-time syndromic surveillance system for detection of unexpected events.

A longitudinal analysis of temporal and spatial incidence of neonatal abstinence syndrome in Ontario: 2003-2016.

OBJECTIVE: This study describes the incidence of neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) in Ontario, Canada by year and health region from 2003 to 2016. DESIGN: The incidence of NAS diagnoses per 1,000 live births was calculated for the 36 local public health agency regions in Ontario from 2003 to 2016 using retrospective hospital admissions data. Infants with a diagnosis of NAS were identified using ICD-10 code P961. Local public health agency level data were aggregated and analyzed by geographic region and by Statistics Canada 2015 Peer Groups. RESULTS: The incidence of NAS in Ontario increased from 0.99 per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 5.94 per 1,000 live births in 2016. There were major differences in NAS incidence by geography, North Western Ontario had the greatest incidence across all years. Health regions with a rural and population center mix or mostly rural population had greater incidence rate of NAS compared to health regions with high density population centers. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NAS has dramatically increased across Ontario in the last decade. Actions should be taken to combat the continued increase in NAS rates, especially in health regions with disproportionately high incidence of NAS.

Employee absenteeism based on occupational health visits in an urban tertiary care Canadian hospital.

(1) To merge Occupational Health (OH) and Human Resources (HR) administrative data to describe reasons for absenteeism among hospital employees and (2) to consider the advantages and disadvantages of using these combined data for surveillance of health care workers. This study utilized a retrospective cohort design, involving a record linkage of two administrative databases at a Canadian general hospital: OH and HR. Data were included for the period of June 1, 2004, to May 31, 2005. Data linkage was performed using sex, postal code, and date of birth. The most common self-reported reasons for absence were respiratory illness (31%), gastrointestinal illness (17%), and musculoskeletal injuries/disabilities (15%). Employees working in the Department of General Medicine experienced the highest number of times absent--1.9 per 1,000 work hours. The department with the highest percentage of staff not reporting to OH was General Medicine (43%). This research highlights the issue of absenteeism among health care workers and the need to improve reporting of illness and injury to OH for surveillance efficacy. Further, a public health surveillance system that monitors OH visits among health care workers can facilitate public health practice.

Implementation of an automated, real-time public health surveillance system linking emergency departments and health units: rationale and methodology.

In September 2004, Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington (KFL and A) Public Health, in collaboration with the Public Health Division of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Queen's University, the Public Health Agency of Canada, Kingston General Hospital and Hotel Dieu Hospital, began a 2-year pilot project to implement and evaluate an emergency department (ED) chief complaint syndromic surveillance system. Our objective was to evaluate a comprehensive and readily deployable real-time regional syndromic surveillance program and to determine its ability to detect gastrointestinal or respiratory outbreaks well in advance of traditional reporting systems. In order to implement the system, modifications were made to the University of Pittsburgh's Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) system, which has been successfully integrated into public health systems, and has enhanced communication and collaboration between them and EDs. This paper provides an overview of a RODS-based syndromic surveillance system as adapted for use at a public health unit in Kingston, Ontario. We summarize the technical specifications, privacy and security considerations, data capture, classification and management of the data streams, alerting and public health response. We hope that the modifications described here, including the addition of unique data streams, will provide a benchmark for future Canadian syndromic surveillance systems.

Can Telehealth Ontario respiratory call volume be used as a proxy for emergency department respiratory visit surveillance by public health?

OBJECTIVE: There is a paucity of information regarding the usefulness of non-traditional data streams for real-time syndromic surveillance systems. The objective of this paper is to examine the temporal relation between Ontario's emergency department (ED) visits and telephone health line (Telehealth) call volume for respiratory illnesses to test the feasibility of using Ontario's Telehealth system for real-time surveillance. METHODS: Retrospective time-series data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) and the Telehealth Ontario program from June 1, 2004, to March 31, 2006, were analyzed. The added value of Telehealth Ontario data was determined by comparing it temporally with NACRS data, which uses the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10-Canadian Enhancement coding system for discharge diagnoses. RESULTS: Telehealth Ontario had 216,105 calls for respiratory complaints, while 819,832 ICD-coded complaints from NACRS were identified with a comparable diagnosis of respiratory illness. Telehealth Ontario call volume was heavily weighted for the 0-4 years age group (49%), while the NACRS visits were mainly from those 18-64 years old (44%). The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was calculated to be 0.97, with the time-series analysis also resulting in significant correlations at lags (semi-monthly) 0 and 1, indicating that increases in Telehealth Ontario call volume correlate with increases in NACRS discharge diagnosis data for respiratory illnesses. CONCLUSION: Telehealth Ontario call volume fluctuation reflects directly on ED respiratory visit data on a provincial basis. These call complaints are a timely, useful and representative data stream that shows promise for integration into a real-time syndromic surveillance system.

Using Ontario's "Telehealth" health telephone helpline as an early-warning system: a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The science of syndromic surveillance is still very much in its infancy. While a number of syndromic surveillance systems are being evaluated in the US, very few have had success thus far in predicting an infectious disease event. Furthermore, to date, the majority of syndromic surveillance systems have been based primarily in emergency department settings, with varying levels of enhancement from other data sources. While research has been done on the value of telephone helplines on health care use and patient satisfaction, very few projects have looked at using a telephone helpline as a source of data for syndromic surveillance, and none have been attempted in Canada. The notable exception to this statement has been in the UK where research using the national NHS Direct system as a syndromic surveillance tool has been conducted. METHODS/DESIGN: The purpose of our proposed study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Ontario's telephone nursing helpline system as a real-time syndromic surveillance system, and how its implementation, if successful, would have an impact on outbreak event detection in Ontario. Using data collected retrospectively, all "reasons for call" and assigned algorithms will be linked to a syndrome category. Using different analytic methods, normal thresholds for the different syndromes will be ascertained. This will allow for the evaluation of the system's sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. The next step will include the prospective monitoring of syndromic activity, both temporally and spatially. DISCUSSION: As this is a study protocol, there are currently no results to report. However, this study has been granted ethical approval, and is now being implemented. It is our hope that this syndromic surveillance system will display high sensitivity and specificity in detecting true outbreaks within Ontario, before they are detected by conventional surveillance systems. Future results will be published in peer-reviewed journals so as to contribute to the growing body of evidence on syndromic surveillance, while also providing an non US-centric perspective.

Plasma amino acid levels in children with autism and their families.

Plasma amino acid levels were measured in autistic and Asperger syndrome patients, their siblings, and parents. The results were compared with values from age-matched controls. Patients with autism or Asperger syndrome and their siblings and parents all had raised glutamic acid, phenylalanine, asparagine, tyrosine, alanine, and lysine (p < .05) than controls, with reduced plasma glutamine. Other amino acids were at normal levels. These results show that children with autistic spectrum disorders come from a family background of dysregulated amino acid metabolism and provide further evidence for an underlying biochemical basis for the condition.

Influenza assessment centres: a case study of pandemic preparedness to alleviate excess emergency department volume.

OBJECTIVES: Influenza assessment centres (IACs) were deployed to reduce emergency department (ED) volumes during the pH1N1 influenza outbreak in the Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington (KFL&A) public health region of Ontario, Canada, in the fall of 2009. We present a case study for the deployment of IACs to reduce ED visit volume during both periods of pandemic and seasonal communicable disease outbreak. METHODS: An emergency department syndromic surveillance system was used to trigger the deployment of eight geographically distributed IACs and to time their staggered closure 3 weeks later. We compared actual and expected ED visit volumes in the KFL&A region to neighbouring regions where no IACs operated by time series regression analysis before, during, and after IAC operation. RESULTS: The deployment of IACs was triggered with a rise in overall ED volume at the hospitals in the KFL&A region to a level 10% above the 6-month running average. The IACs assessed 2,284 patients during 3 weeks of operation. Thirty-three patients were admitted directly to the hospital from the IACs, bypassing the EDs. During the operation of the IACs, the hospitals in the KFL&A region experienced a modest decrease in daily visits when compared to the 3 previous weeks. Overall ED visit volume in the hospitals in the neighbouring regions increased 105% during the period of IAC operation. CONCLUSIONS: Operating stand-alone influenza IACs may reduce ED volumes during periods of increased demand, as observed during an anticipated pandemic situation.

Modeling and syndromic surveillance for estimating weather-induced heat-related illness.

This paper compares syndromic surveillance and predictive weather-based models for estimating emergency department (ED) visits for Heat-Related Illness (HRI). A retrospective time-series analysis of weather station observations and ICD-coded HRI ED visits to ten hospitals in south eastern Ontario, Canada, was performed from April 2003 to December 2008 using hospital data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) database, ED patient chief complaint data collected by a syndromic surveillance system, and weather data from Environment Canada. Poisson regression and Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), a nonlinear time series modeling technique, were used to construct models for the expected number of HRI ED visits using weather predictor variables (temperature, humidity, and wind speed). Estimates of HRI visits from regression models using both weather variables and visit counts captured by syndromic surveillance as predictors were slightly more highly correlated with NACRS HRI ED visits than either regression models using only weather predictors or syndromic surveillance counts.

Visualization techniques and graphical user interfaces in syndromic surveillance systems. Summary from the Disease Surveillance Workshop, Sept. 11-12, 2007; Bangkok, Thailand.

Timeliness is a critical asset to the detection of public health threats when using syndromic surveillance systems. In order for epidemiologists to effectively distinguish which events are indicative of a true outbreak, the ability to utilize specific data streams from generalized data summaries is necessary. Taking advantage of graphical user interfaces and visualization capacities of current surveillance systems makes it easier for users to investigate detected anomalies by generating custom graphs, maps, plots, and temporal-spatial analysis of specific syndromes or data sources.