The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Determinants of receipt of prostate cancer screening among men living with HIV enrolled in an urban HIV Clinic in the United States over the period of 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is projected to account for the greatest proportion of cancer-related burden among men with HIV. However, incidence is reportedly lower than in men without HIV, potentially due to differences in screening. Factors influencing receipt of screening in men with HIV are unknown. We described receipt of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and assessed factors for association with receipt of PSA test. METHODS: Demographics, measures of HIV and related care, and non-HIV care were assessed for association with receipt of first PSA test in men ≥40 years old each calendar year in 2000-2020 using univariable and multivariable Poisson regression. Models were additionally stratified by calendar period to identify changes in determinants of PSA test as prostate cancer screening guidelines changed. RESULTS: Men (n = 2,063) 72% Non-Hispanic Black, median age of 47 (IQR: 41, 53), contributed median of 4.7 years (IQR: 2.3, 10.0) of follow-up. Receipt of antiretroviral therapy (aIRR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.55), engagement in HIV care (aIRR = 2.09; 95% CI: 1.66, 2.62), history of testosterone-replacement therapy (aIRR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.50), urologist evaluation (aIRR = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.05), and receipt of PSA test in preceding two years (no elevated PSA aIRR = 2.37; 95% CI: 2.16, 2.61; elevated PSA aIRR = 4.35; 95% CI: 3.24, 5.84) were associated with PSA testing in men aged 50 or older. Associations varied across calendar time. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest men with greater interaction with healthcare are more likely to receive PSA test. Measures of control of HIV did not appear to influence the decision to screen.

Evaluation of mean corpuscular volume among anemic people with HIV in North America following ART initiation.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is common and associated with increased morbidity among people with HIV (PWH). Classification of anemia using the mean corpuscular volume (MCV) can help investigate the underlying causative factors of anemia. We characterize anemia using MCV among PWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and identify the risk factors for normocytic, macrocytic, and microcytic anemias. METHODS: Including PWH with anemia (hemoglobin measure < 12.9 g/dL among men and < 11.9 g/dL among women) in the NA-ACCORD from 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017, we estimated the annual distribution of normocytic (80-100 femtolitre (fL)), macrocytic (> 100 fL) or microcytic (< 80 fL) anemia based on the lowest hemoglobin within each year. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations were used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors for macrocytic (vs. normocytic) and microcytic (vs. normocytic) anemia stratified by sex. RESULTS: Among 37,984 hemoglobin measurements that identified anemia in 14,590 PWH, 27,909 (74%) were normocytic, 4257 (11%) were microcytic, and 5818 (15%) were macrocytic. Of the anemic PWH included over the study period, 1910 (13%) experienced at least one measure of microcytic anemia and 3208 (22%) at least one measure of macrocytic anemia. Normocytic anemia was most common among both males and females, followed by microcytic among females and macrocytic among males. Over time, the proportion of anemic PWH who have macrocytosis decreased while microcytosis increased. Macrocytic (vs. normocytic) anemia is associated with increasing age and comorbidities. With increasing age, microcytic anemia decreased among females but not males. A greater proportion of PWH with normocytic anemia had CD4 counts ≤ 200 cells/mm3 and had recently initiated ART. CONCLUSION: In anemic PWH, normocytic anemia was most common. Over time macrocytic anemia decreased, and microcytic anemia increased irrespective of sex. Normocytic anemia is often due to chronic disease and may explain the greater risk for normocytic anemia among those with lower CD4 counts or recent ART initiation. Identified risk factors for type-specific anemias including sex, age, comorbidities, and HIV factors, can help inform targeted investigation into the underlying causes.

Lower endoscopy, early-onset, and average-onset colon cancer among Medicaid beneficiaries with and without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest a lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and lower or similar CRC screening among people with HIV (PWH) compared with the general population. We evaluated the incidence of lower endoscopy and average-onset (diagnosed at ≥50) and early-onset (diagnosed at <50) colon cancer by HIV status among Medicaid beneficiares with comparable sociodemographic factors and access to care. METHODS: We obtained Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) data from 2001 to 2015 for 14 states. We included 41 727 243 and 42 062 552 unique individuals with at least 7 months of continuous eligibility for the endoscopy and colon cancer analysis, respectively. HIV and colon cancer diagnoses and endoscopy procedures were identified from inpatient and other nondrug claims. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess endoscopy and colon cancer incidence, controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, calendar year and state of enrollment, and comorbidities conditions. RESULTS: Endoscopy and colon cancer incidence increased with age in both groups. Compared with beneficiaries without HIV, PWH had an increased hazard of endoscopy; this association was strongest among those 18-39 years [hazard ratio: 1.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.77-1.92] and attenuated with age. PWH 18-39 years also had increased hazard of early-onset colon cancer (hazard ratio: 1.66, 95% CI:1.05-2.62); this association was attenuated after comorbidity adjustment. Hazard ratios were null among all beneficiaries less than 50 years of age. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer compared with those without HIV (hazard ratio: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.94). CONCLUSION: PWH had a higher hazard of endoscopy, particularly at younger ages. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer. Early-onset colon cancer was higher among the youngest PWH but not associated with HIV overall.

The association of changes in depression severity after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and viral nonsuppression among people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to characterize changes in depressive symptom severity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the association of these changes with HIV viral nonsuppression among people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: A clinical cohort study. METHODS: We included PWH in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort who completed the Patient Health Questionnaire 8 (PHQ-8) prepandemic (1 March 2018 to 28 February 2020) and during the COVID-era (1 September 2020 to 28 February 2022). PWH were classified according to depression severity categories prepandemic and during the COVID-era as: consistently depressed (prepandemic PHQ-8 >4 and no change in severity category); consistently nondepressed (prepandemic PHQ-8 ≤4 and no change in severity category); worsened (changed to a higher severity category) and; improved (change to a lower severity category). The association between changes in depressive symptom severity and viral nonsuppression (HIV RNA >200 copies/ml on the earliest viral load measured 7 days before to 12 months after the COVID-era PHQ-8 survey) was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 793 PWH, mean age was 56 (SD 10) years, 60% were male individuals and 88% were Black. After the onset of the pandemic, 60% were consistently nondepressed, 9% were consistently depressed, 15% worsened and 16% improved. PWH who worsened had 2.47 times the odds of viral nonsuppression (95% CI: 1.09-5.55) compared with the nondepressed group. Associations among other groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Worsening depression during the COVID-era was associated with HIV viral nonsuppression. Strategies to monitor and address depression among PWH may contribute to reduced risk of viral nonsuppression.

The anxiety care continuum and its association with viral suppression among persons with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear how often anxiety is diagnosed and treated and whether anxiety treatment is associated with improved viral suppression in persons with HIV. In this study, we characterized the anxiety care continuum and its association with viral suppression in a large urban HIV clinic in the United States. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: We described the anxiety care continuum by combining data on self-reported anxiety symptoms, engagement in mental health care, clinical diagnoses and prescriptions from 1,967 persons receiving HIV care and treatment in Baltimore, Maryland, from 2014-23. We examined cross-sectional associations with viral suppression. All analyses were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity; a secondary analysis adjusted for age, years in care, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Nearly 1 in 5 patients reported mild-severe symptoms of anxiety but were not currently receiving mental health care or pharmacologic treatment for anxiety; 6% of patients reported anxiety symptoms but were receiving treatment, and 7% had been treated for anxiety that was currently in remission. The prevalence of viral suppression ranged from 87-89% across the anxiety care continuum except among patients with untreated moderate-severe anxiety, only 81% of whom were virally suppressed (95% CI: 80, 83). In adjusted models, untreated moderate-severe anxiety remained associated with viral non-suppression across demographic groups. CONCLUSION: We observed a robust association between untreated anxiety and viral non-suppression in a large urban cohort of persons with HIV. Screening for anxiety may identify patients with unmet mental health care needs who face barriers to maintaining viral suppression.

Association between switching to integrase strand transfer inhibitors and incident diabetes in people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) are associated with weight gain in people with HIV (PWH), but their impact on diabetes is unclear. We evaluated the association between switching from nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) or protease inhibitors (PI) to INSTI and incident diabetes. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: We included PWH aged ≥18 years from the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort (2007-2023) without history of diabetes who had used NNRTI or PI for ≥180 days. We followed participants up to 10 years from HIV primary care visits where they switched to INSTI or continued NNRTI or PI. We estimated the hazard of incident diabetes associated with switching to INSTI using weighted Cox regression with robust variance estimator. RESULTS: We included 2075 PWH who attended 22 116 visits where they continued NNRTI or PI and 631 visits where they switched to INSTI. Switching to INSTI was associated with a weighted hazard ratio (wHR) of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.77-1.59] for incident diabetes. The association if no weight gain occurred during the first two years was not qualitatively different (wHR 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.80). In a posthoc analysis, switching to INSTI conferred a significant wHR of 1.79 (95% CI, 1.13-2.84) for diabetes within the first two years but not after. CONCLUSIONS: Switching from NNRTI or PI to INSTI did not significantly increase overall diabetes incidence in PWH, although there may be elevated risk in the first two years. These findings can inform considerations when switching to INSTI-based regimens.

Incidence of non-AIDS defining comorbidities among young adults with perinatally acquired HIV in North America.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to describe the incidence of diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM), hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) from 2000 to 2019 among North American adults with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) aged 18-30 years. DESIGN: Description of outcomes based on electronic health records for a cohort of 375 young adults with PHIV enrolled in routine HIV care at clinics contributing data to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: We estimated overall, sex, and race-stratified cumulative incidences using Turnbull estimation, and incidence rates using quasi-Poisson regression. T2DM was defined as glycosylated hemoglobin more than 6.5% or based on clinical diagnosis and medication use. Hypercholesterolemia was based on medication use or total cholesterol at least 200 mg/dl. Hypertriglyceridemia was based on medication use or fasting triglyceride at least 150 mg/dl or nonfasting at least 200 mg/dl. Hypertension was based on clinical diagnosis. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rates less than 90 ml/mi|1.73 m 2 for at least 3 months. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence by age 30 and incidence rates from age 18 to 30 (per 100 person-years) were T2DM: 19%, 2.9; hypercholesterolemia: 40%, 4.6; hypertriglyceridemia: 50%, 5.6; hypertension: 22%, 2.0; and CKD: 25%, 3.3. Non-Black women had the highest incidence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia, Black adults had the highest hypertension incidence, and Black men had the highest CKD incidence. CONCLUSION: There was a high incidence of five chronic comorbidities among people with PHIV. Earlier screening at younger ages might be considered for this unique population to strengthen prevention strategies and initiate treatment in a timely way.

THE ASSOCIATION OF ANEMIA WITH SURVIVAL AMONG PEOPLE WITH HIV FOLLOWING ANTIRETROVIRAL INITIATION IN THE NA-ACCORD 2007-2016.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is an independent predictor of mortality, which may be utilized as a signal of deteriorating health. We estimated the association between anemia severity categories and mortality following the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV (PWH) in North America. METHODS: Within the NA-ACCORD, annual median hemoglobin measurements between 01/01/2007-12/31/2016 were categorized using World Health Organization criteria into mild (11.0-12.9g/dL men, 11.0-11.9g/dL women), moderate (8.0-10.9g/dL men/women) and severe (<8.0g/dL men/women) anemia. Discrete time-to-event analyses using complementary log-log link models estimated mortality hazards ratios adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and HIV clinical markers with 95% confidence intervals for the association between anemia and mortality. RESULTS: Among 67,228 PWH contributing a total of 320,261 annual median hemoglobin measurements, 257,293 (80%) demonstrated no anemia, 44,041 (14%) mild, 18,259 (6%) moderate, and 668 (0.2%) severe anemia during follow-up. Mortality risk was 5.6-fold higher among PWH with (vs. without) anemia. The association was greater among males (aHR=5.8 [5.4, 6.2]) versus females (aHR=4.1 [3.2, 5.4]). Mortality risk was 3.8-fold higher among PWH with mild anemia, 13.7-fold higher with moderate anemia, and 34.5-fold higher with severe anemia (vs. no anemia). Median hemoglobin levels significantly declined within 4 years prior to death, with the maximum decrease the year prior to death. Macrocytic anemia was associated with an increased and microcytic anemia a decreased mortality risk (vs. normocytic anemia). CONCLUSIONS: Anemia among PWH who have initiated ART is an important predictive marker for mortality with macrocytic anemia having an increased and microcytic anemia a decreased association with mortality compared with normocytic anemia.

Prevalence and Correlates of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Uptake and Hesitancy Among People With HIV Across the United States.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) have higher risk of COVID-19 mortality. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective among PWH, although vaccine hesitancy could limit the population-level impact. SETTING: From February 2021 to April 2022, PWH from 8 sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems completed a vaccine hesitancy instrument as part of routine care. METHODS: Participants were defined as vaccine hesitant if they had not received the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and would probably/definitely not receive it. We assessed factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy using logistic regression adjusted for demographics, unsuppressed viral load (VL > 200 copies/mL), month, and time on ART; using inverse probability weighting for survey nonresponse. RESULTS: Overall, 3288 PWH with a median age of 55 were included; 18% were female and 94% were virally suppressed. At the time of survey, 27% reported they had not received the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, and 9% (n = 279) reported vaccine hesitancy. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy included female sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-3.2), Black vs. White race (AOR 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.4), younger age (AOR 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.5), and unsuppressed VL (AOR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.3 to 3.0). CONCLUSION: Overall, over one-quarter of PWH in this multisite cohort were unvaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 when interviewed February 21-April 22. Vaccine hesitancy was reported by approximately 9% of PWH and was higher among women, Black PWH, younger PWH, PWH with unsuppressed VL, and those in the South/Midwest. Renewed efforts are needed to address concerns of PWH about vaccinations against COVID-19 as the pandemic evolves, and vaccines in general, given the potential for future pandemics.

Differences in internalized HIV stigma across subpopulations of people with HIV in care across the United States.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which subgroups of people with HIV (PWH) carry the greatest burden of internalized HIV stigma (IHS), which may be important to care provision and interventions. METHODS: PWH in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) longitudinal, US-based, multisite, clinical care cohort completed tablet-based assessments during clinic visits including a four-item, Likert scale (low 1-5 high), IHS instrument. Associations between sociodemographic characteristics and IHS scores were assessed in adjusted linear regression models. RESULTS: Twelve thousand six hundred and fifty-six PWH completed the IHS assessment at least once from February 2016 to November 2022, providing 28 559 IHS assessments. At baseline IHS assessment, the mean age was 49 years, 41% reported White, 38% Black/African American, and 16% Latine race/ethnicity, and 80% were cisgender men. The mean IHS score was 2.04, with all subgroups represented among those endorsing IHS. In regression analyses, younger PWH and those in care fewer years had higher IHS scores. In addition, cisgender women vs. cisgender men, PWH residing in the West vs. the Southeast, and those with sexual identities other than gay/lesbian had higher IHS scores. Compared with White-identifying PWH, those who identified with Black/African American or Latine race/ethnicity had lower IHS scores. Age stratification revealed patterns related to age category, including specific age-related differences by gender, geographic region and race/ethnicity. DISCUSSION: IHS is prevalent among PWH, with differential burden by subgroups of PWH. These findings highlight the benefits of routine screening for IHS and suggest the need for targeting/tailoring interventions to reduce IHS among PWH.

Sex Differences in the Risk of Stroke Associated With Traditional and Non-Traditional Factors in a US Cohort of People With HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although stroke risk associated with HIV may be greater for women than men, little is known about whether the impact of different factors on cerebrovascular risk varies by sex in people with HIV (PWH) and contributes to stroke risk disparities in this population. The primary objective of this study was to examine whether sex modifies the effect of demographics, cardiometabolic factors, health-related behaviors, and HIV-specific variables on stroke risk in PWH from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we analyzed data from clinical encounters for PWH followed at 5 CNICS sites from approximately 2005 to 2020. All potential stroke events were adjudicated by neurologists. Patient-reported outcomes collected at clinic visits, including substance use and depression, were also available. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine whether sex modified the association of predictors of interest with incident stroke. RESULTS: Among 13,573 PWH (19% female sex at birth, mean age 44 years, mean follow-up 5.6 years), female sex was associated with a higher risk of stroke only among individuals aged 50 years or younger (hazard ratio [HR] 2.01 at age 40 [1.25-3.21] vs HR 0.60 at age 60 [0.34-1.06]; p = 0.001 for the interaction). Younger female participants who developed a stroke were more likely to have treated hypertension, a higher cardiovascular risk score, and detectable HIV than younger male participants whereas these factors were comparable by sex among older participants who developed a stroke. Sex modified the effect of detectable HIV (HR 4.66 for female participants [2.48-8.74] vs HR 1.30 for male participants [0.83-2.03]; p = 0.001 for the interaction), methamphetamine use (HR 4.78 for female participants [1.47-15.56] vs HR 1.19 for male participants [0.62-2.29]; p = 0.04 for the interaction), and treated hypertension (HR 3.44 for female participants [1.74-6.81] vs HR 1.66 for male participants [1.14-2.41]; p = 0.06 for the interaction) on stroke risk. DISCUSSION: Younger female participants with HIV were at elevated cerebrovascular risk compared with younger male participants. Several risk factors had a greater adverse effect on stroke risk in female participants than in male participants, including HIV viremia, methamphetamine use, and treated hypertension. These findings underscore the importance of a personalized approach to predict and prevent cerebrovascular risk among PWH.