Cluster of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant Infections, Parintins, Brazil, March 2021.

High case counts after the Gamma (P. 1) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 emerged in Brazil raised concerns that previously infected persons might become reinfected. Investigation of a cluster of coronavirus disease cases in Parintins, in the Brazilian Amazon, suggested household transmission but did not identify high rates of reinfection.

Active surveillance and early detection of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Mu variant (B.1.621) in the Brazilian Amazon.

Through active surveillance and contact tracing from outpatients, we aimed to identify and characterize SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in Porto Velho-Rondônia, a city in the Brazilian Amazon. As part of a prospective cohort, we gathered information from 2,506 individuals among COVID-19 patients and household contacts. Epidemiological data, nasopharyngeal swabs, and blood samples were collected from all participants. Nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for antigen rapid diagnostic test and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) followed by genomic sequencing. Blood samples underwent ELISA testing for IgA, IgG, and IgM antibody levels. From 757 specimens sequenced, three were identified as Mu variant, none of the individuals carrying this variant had a travel history in the previous 15 days before diagnosis. One case was asymptomatic and two presented mild symptoms. Two infected individuals from different households caring viruses with additional amino acid substitutions ORF7a P45L and ORF1a T1055A compared to the Mu virus reference sequence. One patient presented IgG levels. Our results highlight that genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 variants can assist in detecting the emergency of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the community, before its identification in other parts of the country.

Attrition, physical integrity and insecticidal activity of long-lasting insecticidal nets in sub-Saharan Africa and modelling of their impact on vectorial capacity.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the primary malaria prevention and control intervention in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. While LLINs are expected to last at least 3 years under normal use conditions, they can lose effectiveness because they fall out of use, are discarded, repurposed, physically damaged, or lose insecticidal activity. The contributions of these different interrelated factors to durability of nets and their protection against malaria have been unclear. METHODS: Starting in 2009, LLIN durability studies were conducted in seven countries in Africa over 5 years. WHO-recommended measures of attrition, LLIN use, insecticidal activity, and physical integrity were recorded for eight different net brands. These data were combined with analyses of experimental hut data on feeding inhibition and killing effects of LLINs on both susceptible and pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors to estimate the protection against malaria transmission-in terms of vectorial capacity (VC)-provided by each net cohort over time. Impact on VC was then compared in hypothetical scenarios where one durability outcome measure was set at the best possible level while keeping the others at the observed levels. RESULTS: There was more variability in decay of protection over time by country than by net brand for three measures of durability (ratios of variance components 4.6, 4.4, and 1.8 times for LLIN survival, use, and integrity, respectively). In some countries, LLIN attrition was slow, but use declined rapidly. Non-use of LLINs generally had more effect on LLIN impact on VC than did attrition, hole formation, or insecticide loss. CONCLUSIONS: There is much more variation in LLIN durability among countries than among net brands. Low levels of use may have a larger impact on effectiveness than does variation in attrition or LLIN degradation. The estimated entomological effects of chemical decay are relatively small, with physical decay probably more important as a driver of attrition and non-use than as a direct cause of loss of effect. Efforts to maximize LLIN impact in operational settings should focus on increasing LLIN usage, including through improvements in LLIN physical integrity. Further research is needed to understand household decisions related to LLIN use, including the influence of net durability and the presence of other nets in the household.

Treatment outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving sofosbuvir-based combination therapy within national hepatitis C elimination program in the country of Georgia.

BACKGROUND: Georgia has one of the highest HCV prevalence in the world and launched the world's first national HCV elimination programs in 2015. Georgia set the ambitious target of diagnosing 90% of people living with HCV, treating 95% of those diagnosed and curing 95% of treated patients by 2020. We report outcomes of Sofosbuvir (SOF) based treatment regimens in patients with chronic HCV infection in Georgia. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis, advanced liver fibrosis and severe extrahepatic manifestations were enrolled in the treatment program. Initial treatment consisted of SOF plus ribavirin (RBV) with or without pegylated interferon (INF). Sustained virologic response (SVR) was defined as undetectable HCV RNA at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment. SVR were calculated using both per-protocol and modified intent-to-treat (mITT) analysis. Results for patients who completed treatment through 31 October 2018 were analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 7342 patients who initiated treatment with SOF-based regimens, 5079 patients were tested for SVR. Total SVR rate was 82.1% in per-protocol analysis and 74.5% in mITT analysis. The lowest response rate was observed among genotype 1 patients (69.5%), intermediate response rate was achieved in genotype 2 patients (81.4%), while the highest response rate was among genotype 3 patients (91.8%). Overall, SOF/RBV regimens achieved lower response rates than IFN/SOF/RBV regimen (72.1% vs 91.3%, P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis being infected with HCV genotype 2 (RR =1.10, CI [1.05-1.15]) and genotype 3 (RR = 1.14, CI [1.11-1.18]) were associated with higher SVR. Patients with cirrhosis (RR = 0.95, CI [0.93-0.98]), receiving treatment regimens of SOF/RBV 12 weeks, SOF/RBV 20 weeks, SOF/RBV 24 weeks and SOF/RBV 48 weeks (RR = 0.85, CI [0.81-0.91]; RR = 0.86, CI [0.82-0.92]; RR = 0.88, CI [0.85-0.91] and RR = 0.92, CI [0.87-0.98], respectively) were less likely to achieve SVR. CONCLUSIONS: Georgia's real world experience resulted in high overall response rates given that most patients had severe liver damage. Our results provide clear evidence that SOF plus IFN and RBV for 12 weeks can be considered a treatment option for eligible patients with all three HCV genotypes. With introduction of next generation DAAs, significantly improved response rates are expected, paving the way for Georgia to achieve HCV elimination goals.

The burden of non-communicable diseases and their related risk factors in the country of Georgia, 2015.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), mainly cardiovascular diseases, are a substantial cause of mortality in the country of Georgia, accounting for approximately 93% of all deaths (standardized mortality rate 630.7 deaths per 100,000 persons per year) and an important threat to health security. We conducted a nationally representative survey examining the prevalence of NCDs and their risk factors as part of a 2015 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) serosurvey. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey among adults aged ≥18 years using a stratified, multi-stage cluster design (n = 7000). We asked participants standardized questions from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey and the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS) Survey. We also measured blood pressure and Body Mass Index for each participant. Weighted frequencies were computed for NCD and risk factor prevalence and compared to 2010 STEPS results. RESULTS: Georgians reported high rates of smoking, alcohol use, elevated blood pressure, obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. An estimated 27.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 25.3, 28.8%) of adults (51.5% of men and 6.0% of women) reported daily use of tobacco products and 27.5% (95% CI: 25.7, 29.2%) of adults (52.1% of men and 7.0% of women) reported binge drinking within the last 30 days. Physical measurements revealed that 37.5% (95% CI: 35.8, 39.3%) of adults had elevated blood pressure and 33.4% (95% CI: 31.8, 35.0%) had obesity. 5.4% (95% CI: 4.6, 6.2%) of adults had self-reported diagnosed diabetes and 15.3% (95% CI: 14.1, 16.6%) had self-reported diagnosed cardiovascular disease. From 2010 to 2015, the prevalence of obesity increased by 8.3 percentage points (95% CI: 5.9, 10.7%; p < 0.01) and the prevalence of elevated blood pressure increased by 4.1 percentage points (95% CI: 1.4, 6.8%; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Georgia has a high NCD burden, and results from the survey showed an increase in obesity and elevated blood pressure since 2010. The prevalence of other major NCDs have remained near levels reported in the 2010 STEPs survey. Comprehensive public health interventions are needed to control the heath security threats of major NCDs and their risk factors in the future.

Hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in Georgia, 2015: setting a baseline for elimination.

BACKGROUND: The country of Georgia launched the world's first Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Elimination Program in 2015 and set a 90% prevalence reduction goal for 2020. We conducted a nationally representative HCV seroprevalence survey to establish baseline prevalence to measure progress toward elimination over time. METHODS: A cross-sectional seroprevalence survey was conducted in 2015 among adults aged ≥18 years using a stratified, multi-stage cluster design (n = 7000). Questionnaire variables included demographic, medical, and behavioral risk characteristics and HCV-related knowledge. Blood specimens were tested for antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV) and HCV RNA. Frequencies were computed for HCV prevalence, risk factors, and HCV-related knowledge. Associations between anti-HCV status and potential risk factors were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: National anti-HCV seroprevalence in Georgia was 7.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.7, 8.9); HCV RNA prevalence was 5.4% (95% CI = 4.6, 6.4). Testing anti-HCV+ was significantly associated with male sex, unemployment, urban residence, history of injection drug use (IDU), incarceration, blood transfusion, tattoos, frequent dental cleanings, medical injections, dialysis, and multiple lifetime sexual partners. History of IDU (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 21.4, 95% CI = 12.3, 37.4) and blood transfusion (AOR = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.8, 7.2) were independently, significantly associated with testing anti-HCV+ after controlling for sex, age, urban vs. rural residence, and history of incarceration. Among anti-HCV+ participants, 64.0% were unaware of their HCV status, and 46.7% did not report IDU or blood transfusion as a risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Georgia has a high HCV burden, and a majority of infected persons are unaware of their status. Ensuring a safe blood supply, implementing innovative screening strategies beyond a risk-based approach, and intensifying prevention efforts among persons who inject drugs are necessary steps to reach Georgia's HCV elimination goal.

An evaluation of the hepatitis C testing, care and treatment program in the country of Georgia's corrections system, December 2013 - April 2015.

BACKGROUND: The country of Georgia has a high burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and prisoners are disproportionately affected. During 2013, a novel program offering no cost screening and treatment of HCV infection for eligible prisoners was launched. METHODS: The HCV treatment program implemented a voluntary opt-in anti-HCV testing policy to all prisoners. Anti-HCV positive persons received HCV RNA and genotype testing. Transient elastography was also performed on prisoners with positive HCV RNA results. Prisoners with chronic HCV infection who had ≥F2 Metavir stage for liver fibrosis and a prison sentence ≥ 6 months were eligible for interferon-based treatment, which was the standard treatment prior to 2015. We conducted an evaluation of the HCV treatment program among prisoners from the program's inception in December 2013 through April 2015 by combining data from personal interviews with corrections staff, prisoner data in the corrections database, and HCV-specific laboratory information. RESULTS: Of an estimated 30,000 prisoners who were incarcerated at some time during the evaluation period, an estimated 13,500 (45%) received anti-HCV screening, of whom 5175 (38%) tested positive. Of these, 3840 (74%) received HCV RNA testing, 2730 (71%) tested positive, and 880 (32%) met treatment eligibility. Of these, 585 (66%) enrolled; 405 (69%) completed treatment, and 202 (50%) achieved a sustained virologic response at least 12 weeks after treatment completion. CONCLUSIONS: HCV infection prevalence among Georgian prisoners was high. Despite challenges, we determined HCV treatment within Georgian Ministry of Correction facilities was feasible. Efforts to address HCV infection among prison population is one important component of HCV elimination in Georgia.

Human infection with a zoonotic orthopoxvirus in the country of Georgia.

During 2013, cutaneous lesions developed in two men in the country of Georgia after they were exposed to ill cows. The men had never received vaccination against smallpox. Tests of lesion material with the use of a quantitative real-time polymerase-chain-reaction assay for non-variola virus orthopoxviruses were positive, and DNA sequence analysis implicated a novel orthopoxvirus species. During the ensuing epidemiologic investigation, no additional human cases were identified. However, serologic evidence of exposure to an orthopoxvirus was detected in cows in the patients' herd and in captured rodents and shrews. A third case of human infection that occurred in 2010 was diagnosed retrospectively during testing of archived specimens that were originally submitted for tests to detect anthrax. Orthopoxvirus infection should be considered in persons in whom cutaneous lesions develop after contact with animals.

Frameworks for Preventing, Detecting, and Controlling Zoonotic Diseases.

Preventing zoonotic diseases requires coordinated actions by government authorities responsible for human and animal health. Constructing the frameworks needed to foster intersectoral collaboration can be approached in many ways. We highlight 3 examples of approaches to implement zoonotic disease prevention and control programs. The first, rabies control in Ethiopia, was implemented using an umbrella approach: a comprehensive program designed for accelerated impact. The second, a monkeypox program in Democratic Republic of the Congo, was implemented in a stepwise manner, whereby incremental improvements and activities were incorporated into the program. The third approach, a pathogen discovery program, applied in the country of Georgia, was designed to characterize and understand the ecology, epidemiology, and pathogenesis of a new zoonotic pathogen. No one approach is superior, but various factors should be taken into account during design, planning, and implementation.

The Role of Screening and Treatment in National Progress Toward Hepatitis C Elimination - Georgia, 2015-2016.

Georgia, a country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia, has a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. In April 2015, with technical assistance from CDC, Georgia embarked on the world's first program to eliminate hepatitis C, defined as a 90% reduction in HCV prevalence by 2020 (1,2). The country committed to identifying infected persons and linking them to care and curative antiviral therapy, which was provided free of charge through a partnership with Gilead Sciences (1,2). From April 2015 through December 2016, a total of 27,595 persons initiated treatment for HCV infection, among whom 19,778 (71.7%) completed treatment. Among 6,366 persons tested for HCV RNA ≥12 weeks after completing treatment, 5,356 (84.1%) had no detectable virus in their blood, indicative of a sustained virologic response (SVR) and cure of HCV infection. The number of persons initiating treatment peaked in September 2016 at 4,595 and declined during October-December. Broader implementation of interventions that increase access to HCV testing, care, and treatment for persons living with HCV are needed for Georgia to reach national targets for the elimination of HCV.

National Progress Toward Hepatitis C Elimination - Georgia, 2015-2016.

The country of Georgia has a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, associated with exposures to HCV in health care settings with inadequate infection control and unsafe injections among persons who inject drugs (1). In April 2015, in collaboration with CDC and other partners, Georgia embarked on a program to eliminate HCV infection, subsequently defined as achieving a 90% reduction in prevalence by 2020. The initial phase of the program focused on providing HCV treatment to infected persons with advanced liver disease and at highest risk for HCV-associated morbidity and mortality. By April 27, 2016, a total of 27,392 HCV-infected persons registered for the program, 8,448 (30.8%) started treatment, and 5,850 patients (69.2%) completed HCV treatment. Among patients completing treatment who were eligible for posttreatment testing, 2,398 received polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for HCV at least 12 weeks after completion of treatment; 1,980 (82.6%) had no detectable virus, indicative of a sustained virologic response* (i.e., cure). Major challenges to achieving elimination remain, including the need to increase access to care and treatment services and implement a comprehensive approach to prevention and control of HCV infection. As a global leader in this effort, the Georgia HCV Elimination Program can help pave the way for other countries experiencing high rates of HCV infection to undertake similar initiatives.

Notes from the field: Increase in reported Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases--country of Georgia, 2014.

During January-September 2014, Georgia's National Centers for Disease Control and Public Health (NCDC) detected 22 cases of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in the country. CCHF is caused by infection with a tickborne virus of the Bunyaviridae family. Transmission occurs from the bite of an infected tick or from crushing an infected tick with bare skin. Secondary transmission can result from contact with blood or tissues of infected animals and humans. CCHF initially manifests as a nonspecific febrile illness that progresses to a hemorrhagic phase, marked by rapidly developing symptoms leading to multiorgan failure, shock, and death in severe cases. The clinical severity, transmissibility, and infectiousness of CCHF are responsible for its categorization as a viral hemorrhagic fever high-priority bioterrorism agent.

Launch of a Nationwide Hepatitis C Elimination Program--Georgia, April 2015.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects an estimated 130-150 million persons globally and results in an estimated 700,000 deaths annually from hepatocellular carcinoma or cirrhosis. Georgia, a middle-income Eurasian country, has one of the highest estimated HCV prevalences in the world. In 2011, Georgia began offering treatment to a limited number of HCV-infected persons. Beginning in 2013, when new oral medications that can cure >90% of HCV infections were licensed, Georgia engaged partners to develop a comprehensive HCV prevention and control plan, during which the concept of elimination of HCV transmission and disease emerged. To prepare for the launch of an HCV elimination program, Georgia requested CDC's assistance to describe HCV epidemiology, evaluate laboratory and health care capacity, and conduct program monitoring and evaluation. This report describes the activities undertaken to prepare for the program, launched in April 2015, and early results of its initial phase, focused on improving access to affordable diagnostics and free curative treatment for HCV-infected persons with severe liver disease. A national population-based serosurvey began in May 2015, and four clinical sites and their laboratories were selected as initial pilot sites; since June, three additional sites have been added. Through July 3, 2015, a total of 6,491 persons sought treatment, and 6,177 (95.2%) initiated diagnostic work-up. Among these, 1,519 (24.6%) completed work-up, 1,474 (97.0%) of whom initiated treatment. Georgia is scaling up capacity to meet the demand for HCV treatment and is collaborating with CDC and other partners on development of a comprehensive HCV elimination plan that includes specific goals and activities needed to achieve them.

Evaluation of a universal coverage bed net distribution campaign in four districts in Sofala Province, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is the leading cause of death in Mozambique in children under five years old. In 2009, Mozambique developed a novel bed net distribution model to increase coverage, based on assumptions about sleeping patterns. The coverage and impact of a bed net distribution campaign using this model in four districts in Sofala Province, Mozambique was evaluated. METHODS: Paired household, cross-sectional surveys were conducted one month after the 2010 distribution of 140,000 bed nets and again 14 months after the campaign in 2011. During household visits, malaria blood smears were performed and haemoglobin levels were assessed on children under five and data on bed net ownership, access and use were collected; these indicators were analysed at individual, household and community levels. Logistic regression was used to evaluate predictors of malaria infection and anaemia. RESULTS: The campaign reached 98% (95% CI: 97-99%) of households registered during the precampaign listing, with 81% (95% CI: 77-85%) of sleeping spaces covered by campaign bed nets and 85% (95% CI: 81-88%) of the population sleeping in a sleeping space with a campaign bed net designated for the sleeping space. One year after the campaign, 65% (95% CI: 57-72%) of sleeping spaces were observed to have hanging bed nets. The proportion of sleeping spaces for which bed nets were reported used four or more times per week was 65% (95% CI: 56-74%) in the wet season and 60% (95% CI: 52-68%) in the dry season. Malaria parasitaemia prevalence in children under five years old was 47% (95% CI: 40-54%) in 2010 and 36% (95% CI: 27-45%) in 2011. Individual-level malaria infection and anaemia were significantly associated with community-level use of bed nets. CONCLUSIONS: The campaign using the novel distribution model achieved high coverage, although usage was not uniformly high. A significant decrease in malaria parasitaemia prevalence a year after the campaign was not observed, but community-level use of bed nets was significantly associated with a reduced risk for malaria infection and anaemia in children under five.

Risk factors and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus in Georgia: A nationwide population-based survey.

In preparation for the National Hepatitis C Elimination Program in the country of Georgia, a nationwide household-based hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroprevalence survey was conducted in 2015. Data were used to estimate HCV genotype distribution and better understand potential sex-specific risk factors that contribute to HCV transmission. HCV genotype distribution by sex and reported risk factors were calculated. We used explanatory logistic regression models stratified by sex to identify behavioral and healthcare-related risk factors for HCV seropositivity, and predictive logistic regression models to identify additional variables that could help predict the presence of infection. Factors associated with HCV seropositivity in explanatory models included, among males, history of injection drug use (IDU) (aOR = 22.4, 95% CI = 12.7, 39.8) and receiving a blood transfusion (aOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.4, 8.8), and among females, history of receiving a blood transfusion (aOR = 4.0, 95% CI 2.1, 7.7), kidney dialysis (aOR = 7.3 95% CI 1.5, 35.3) and surgery (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.1, 3.2). The male-specific predictive model additionally identified age, urban residence, and history of incarceration as factors predictive of seropositivity and were used to create a male-specific exposure index (Area under the curve [AUC] = 0.84). The female-specific predictive model had insufficient discriminatory performance to support creating an exposure index (AUC = 0.61). The most prevalent HCV genotype (GT) nationally was GT1b (40.5%), followed by GT3 (34.7%) and GT2 (23.6%). Risk factors for HCV seropositivity and distribution of HCV genotypes in Georgia vary substantially by sex. The HCV exposure index developed for males could be used to inform targeted testing programs.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Bali Province: Indonesia shows underdetection of COVID-19 cases by routine surveillance.

The international tourist destination of Bali reported its first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 in March 2020. To better understand the extent of exposure of Bali's 4.3 million inhabitants to the COVID-19 virus, we performed two repeated cross-sectional serosurveys stratified by urban and rural areas. We used a highly specific multiplex assay that detects antibodies to three different viral antigens. We also assessed demographic and social risk factors and history of symptoms. Our results show that the virus was widespread in Bali by late 2020, with 16.73% (95% CI 12.22-21.12) of the population having been infected by that time. We saw no differences in seroprevalence between urban and rural areas, possibly due to extensive population mixing, and similar levels of seroprevalence by gender and among age groups, except for lower seroprevalence in the very young. We observed no difference in seroprevalence between our two closely spaced surveys. Individuals reporting symptoms in the past six months were about twice as likely to be seropositive as those not reporting symptoms. Based upon official statistics for laboratory diagnosed cases for the six months prior to the survey, we estimate that for every reported case an additional 52 cases, at least, were undetected. Our results support the hypothesis that by late 2020 the virus was widespread in Bali, but largely undetected by surveillance.

High sustained viral response among HCV genotype 3 patients with advanced liver fibrosis: real-world data of HCV elimination program in Georgia.

OBJECTIVE: In 2015, Georgia launched HCV elimination program. Initially, patients with advanced liver disease were treated with sofosbuvir-based regimen-the only DAA available for all genotypes. Purpose of the study was assessing real-world data of treatment outcome among patients with HCV GEN3 and advanced liver fibrosis with sofosbuvir-based regimens. RESULTS: Totally 1525 genotype 3 patients were eligible for analysis; most (72.6%) were aged > 45 years, majority were males (95.1%), and all (100%) had advanced liver disease (F3 or F4 by METAVIR score based on elastography). Of those who received sofosbuvir/ribavirin (SOF/RBV) for 24 weeks, 79.3% achieved SVR, while 96.5% who received sofosbuvir/pegylated interferon/ribavirin (SOF/PEG/RBV) for 12 weeks achieved SVR (p < 0.01). Among patients with liver cirrhosis (defined as F4) overall cure rate was 85.7% as opposed to 96.4% for those with F3. Females were more likely to be cured (98.7% vs 89.7%; OR = 8.54). Patients aged 31-45 years had higher likelihood of achieving SVR compared to patients aged 46-60 years (95.7% vs 87.4%; OR = 0.32,). Independent predictors of SVR were treatment with SOF/PEG/RBV (aOR = 6.72) and lower fibrosis stage (F3) (aOR = 4.18). Real-world experience among HCV GEN3 patients with advanced liver fibrosis and treated by sofosbuvir regimen w/o PEGIFN, demonstrated overall high SVR rate.

Interim effect evaluation of the hepatitis C elimination programme in Georgia: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Georgia has a high prevalence of hepatitis C, with 5·4% of adults chronically infected. On April 28, 2015, Georgia launched a national programme to eliminate hepatitis C by 2020 (90% reduction in prevalence) through scaled-up treatment and prevention interventions. We evaluated the interim effect of the programme and feasibility of achieving the elimination goal. METHODS: We developed a transmission model to capture the hepatitis C epidemic in Georgia, calibrated to data from biobehavioural surveys of people who inject drugs (PWID; 1998-2015) and a national survey (2015). We projected the effect of the administration of direct-acting antiviral treatments until Feb 28, 2019, and the effect of continuing current treatment rates until the end of 2020. Effect was estimated in terms of the relative decrease in hepatitis C incidence, prevalence, and mortality relative to 2015 and of the deaths and infections averted compared with a counterfactual of no treatment over the study period. We also estimated treatment rates needed to reach Georgia's elimination target. FINDINGS: From May 1, 2015, to Feb 28, 2019, 54 313 patients were treated, with approximately 1000 patients treated per month since mid 2017. Compared with 2015, our model projects that these treatments have reduced the prevalence of adult chronic hepatitis C by a median 37% (95% credible interval 30-44), the incidence of chronic hepatitis C by 37% (29-44), and chronic hepatitis C mortality by 14% (3-30) and have prevented 3516 (1842-6250) new infections and averted 252 (134-389) deaths related to chronic hepatitis C. Continuing treatment of 1000 patients per month is predicted to reduce prevalence by 51% (42-61) and incidence by 51% (40-62), by the end of 2020. To reach a 90% reduction by 2020, treatment rates must increase to 4144 (2963-5322) patients initiating treatment per month. INTERPRETATION: Georgia's hepatitis C elimination programme has achieved substantial treatment scale-up, which has reduced the burden of chronic hepatitis C. However, the country is unlikely to meet its 2020 elimination target unless treatment scales up considerably. FUNDING: CDC Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, National Institutes of Health.

Ischemic cardiac events during the Department of Health and Human Services Smallpox Vaccination Program, 2003.

Ten ischemic cardiac events (ICEs) were reported among 37,901 initial US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) smallpox vaccinees. Symptoms developed a median of 10 days after vaccination (range, 0-28 days). The median age of case patients was 56 years (range, 42-65 years), and 60% were male. Seven (70%) of the case patients had >/=3 cardiac risk factors or probable coronary artery disease before vaccination. Two women, 55 and 57 years of age, experienced acute myocardial infarction and fatal cardiac arrests. Background rates of ICEs during a 3-week period for civilian populations that were age and sex matched to DHHS vaccinees were estimated. The observed number of myocardial infarctions exceeded estimated expectations (5 vs. 2) but remained within the 95% predictive interval (PI) (0.6-5.4). New onset angina was observed significantly less frequently than estimated expectations (1 vs. 10; 95% PI, 3.5-15.7). After persons with >/=3 cardiac risk factors or known heart disease were deferred from vaccination, no ICEs were reported among an additional 6638 vaccinees.