Estimated Number of People who Inject Drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Findings from a Two-survey Capture-Recapture Population Size Estimation Exercise.

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS program managers in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam have always relied on the police reports and the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package for population size estimation of People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). METHODS: We used Respondent-driven Sampling (RDS) to implement a two-source capture-recapture study to estimate the population size of PWID in HCMC in 2017. The study was implemented in seven out of 24 districts and included men and women ages 18 years and older who reported injecting illicit drugs in the last 90 days, and who had lived in the city for the past six months. Estimates of the PWID population size for each of the seven districts were calculated accounting for the RDS sampling design. These were then adjusted to account for the district sampling probabilities to give an estimate for HCMC. Chapman two-source capture-recapture estimates of population size, based on simple random sampling assumptions, were also calculated for comparison. RESULTS: The estimates resulted in a population size for HCMC of 19,155 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 17,006-25,039] using the RDS approach and 17,947 (95% CI: 15,968-19,928), using the Chapman approach. CONCLUSION: The two-survey capture-recapture exercise provided estimates of PWID in HCMC - based on Chapman estimator and RDS approach - are similar. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID in HCMC, both estimates may need to be taken into consideration together with size estimates from other sources.

Number of People who Inject Drugs in Son La, Vietnam: Population Size Estimation Based on Official Records.

AIMS: Estimated population sizes of key populations are critical for resource allocation as well as for monitoring program performance to prevent HIV infection. In 2018, using official records we recruited and conducted a brief survey among People Who Use Drugs (PWUD) to estimate the population size of People Who Inject Drugs (PWID) in Son La Province, Vietnam. METHODS: In Son La, the authorities develop and maintain a master list of individuals who are suspected of using drugs. The list is updated quarterly and is used to monitor the drug use situation in the province. The list, however, does not distinguish injecting from non-injecting drug users. Individual lists from six districts, 24 communes, and 96 hamlets were selected from among those from 12 districts, 204 communes, and 3335 hamlets in the whole province. After reviewing the lists with the hamlet health workers, based on the length of the lists, a minimum of 20% of the total or five drug users in any hamlet with fewer than 25 PWUD were randomly selected for a brief assessment. In addition to basic demographics, the assessment included any drug use in the last 3 months, injection drug use in the last 3 months, and the last time injected. RESULTS: A total of 250 PWUD were interviewed by hamlet health workers. The total number of PWID across all 12 districts in Son La was estimated at 4475 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3379-5570] and the corresponding proportion of PWID among PWUD was 48.4% (95% CI: 36.6-60.4). CONCLUSION: The exercise provided an estimated number of PWID in Son La. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID, additional studies using different methods are needed to validate and improve the population size of PWID in the province of Son La.

Population Size Estimation of Venue-Based Female Sex Workers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Capture-Recapture Exercise.

BACKGROUND: There is limited population size estimation of female sex workers (FSWs) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)-the largest city in Vietnam. Only 1 population size estimation among venue-based female sex workers (VFSWs) was conducted in 2012 in HCMC. Appropriate estimates of the sizes of key populations are critical for resource allocation to prevent HIV infection. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the population size of the VFSWs from December 2016 to January 2017 in HCMC, Vietnam. METHODS: A multistage capture-recapture study was conducted in HCMC. The capture procedures included selection of districts using stratified probability proportion to size, mapping to identify venues, approaching all VFSWs to screen their eligibility, and then distribution of a unique object (a small pink makeup bag) to all eligible VFSWs in all identified venues. The recapture exercise included equal probability random selection of a sample of venues from the initial mapping and then approaching FSWs in those venues to determine the number and proportion of women who received the unique object. The proportion and associated confidence bounds, calculated using sampling weights and accounting for study design, were then divided by the number of objects distributed to calculate the number of VFSWs in the selected districts. This was then multiplied by the inverse of the proportion of districts selected to calculate the number of VFSWs in HCMC as a whole. RESULTS: Out of 24 districts, 6 were selected for the study. Mapping identified 573 venues across which 2317 unique objects were distributed in the first capture. During the recapture round, 103 venues were selected and 645 VFSWs were approached and interviewed. Of those, 570 VFSWs reported receiving the unique object during the capture round. Total estimated VFSWs in the 6 selected districts were 2616 (95% CI 2445-3014), accounting for the fact that only 25% (6/24) of total districts were selected gives an overall estimate of 10,465 (95% CI 9782-12,055) VFSWs in HCMC. CONCLUSIONS: The capture-recapture exercise provided an estimated number of VFSWs in HCMC. However, for planning HIV prevention and care service needs among all FSWs, studies are needed to assess the number of sex workers who are not venue-based, including those who use social media platforms to sell services.

Recalibration of the limiting antigen avidity EIA to determine mean duration of recent infection in divergent HIV-1 subtypes.

BACKGROUND: Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus. METHODS: A total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs. RESULTS: Using different statistical methods, MDRI values ranged from 88-94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177-183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing for misclassification among long-term infections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6% to 2.5% at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118-142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.

Impact of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of tuberculosis: the Brazilian experience, 1995-2001.

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) fuels tuberculosis (TB) epidemics. In controlled clinical trials, antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces TB incidence in HIV-infected patients. In this study we determine if, under programmatic conditions, Brazil's policy of universal ART access has impacted TB incidence among HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We abstracted clinical information from records of HIV-infected patients managed in the public sector in 11 Brazilian states between 1/1/1995 and 12/31/2001. Case ascertainment (TB and HIV) utilized guidelines (with added stringency) published by Brazil's Ministry of Health. We determined TB incidence and hazards ratio (HR) for ART-naïve and ART-treated [including highly active ART (HAART)] patients employing Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Information from 463 HIV-infected patients met study criteria. The median age of the study population was 34 years, 70% were male, and mean follow-up to primary endpoints--TB, death, and last clinic visit--was 330, 1059, and 1125 days, respectively. Of the 463 patients, 76 (16%) remained ART-naïve. Of the patients who never received HAART (n = 157) 81 were treated with ART non-HAART. Of the patients who received any ART (n = 387), 306 were treated with HAART (includes those patients who later switched from ART non-HAART to HAART). Tuberculosis developed in 39/463 (8%) patients. Compared to HAART- and ART non-HAART-treated patient groups, TB incidence was 10- (p<0.001) and 2.5-fold (p = 0.03) higher in ART-naïve patients, respectively. The median baseline absolute CD4+ T-lymphocyte count for patients who developed TB was not significantly different from that of patients who remained TB free. In multivariate analysis, the incidence of TB was statistically significantly lower in HAART-treated [HR 0.2; 95% (CI 0.1, 0.6); p<0.01] compared to ART naïve patients. A baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte count <200 cells/mm(3) [HR 2.5; (95% CI 1.2, 5.4); p<0.01], prior hospitalization [HR 4.2; (95% CI 2.0, 8.8); p<0.001], prior incarceration [HR 4.1; 95% CI 1.6, 10.3); p<0.01], and a positive tuberculin skin test [HR 3.1; (95% CI 1.1, 9.0); p = 0.04] were independently and positively associated with incident TB. CONCLUSION: In this population-based study we demonstrate an 80% reduction in incident TB, under programmatic conditions, in HAART-treated HIV-infected patients compared to ART-naïve patients.