Mixed Cardiogenic Shock: A Proposal for Standardized Classification, a Hemodynamic Definition, and Framework for Management.

The classification of cardiogenic shock (CS) has evolved from a singular cold-and wet-hemodynamic profile. Data from registries and clinical trials have contributed to a broader recognition that although all patients with CS have insufficient cardiac output leading to end organ hypoperfusion, there is considerable variability in CS acuity, underlying etiologies, volume status, and systemic vascular resistance. Mixed CS can be broadly categorized as CS with at least 1 additional shock state. Mixed CS states are now the second leading cause of shock in contemporary coronary intensive care units, but there is little high-quality evidence to guide routine care, and there are no standardized classification frameworks or well-established hemodynamic definitions. This primer summarizes the current epidemiology and proposes a classification framework and invasive hemodynamic parameters to guide categorization that could be applied to help better phenotype patients captured in registries and trials, as well as guide management of mixed CS states.

Efficacy and Safety of Non-Vitamin-K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Across the Spectrum of Body Mass Index and Body Weight: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) across the spectrum of body mass index (BMI) and body weight (BW) remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation), which pooled patient-level data from the 4 pivotal randomized trials of NOAC versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation. The primary efficacy and safety outcomes were stroke or systemic embolic events (stroke/SEE) and major bleeding, respectively; secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke/SEE, intracranial hemorrhage, death, and the net clinical outcome (stroke/SEE, major bleeding, or death). Each outcome was examined across BMI and BW. Because few patients had a BMI <18.5 kg/m2 (n=598), the primary analyses were restricted to those with a BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2. RESULTS: Among 58 464 patients, the median BMI was 28.3 (interquartile range, 25.2-32.2) kg/m2, and the median BW was 81.0 (interquartile range, 70.0-94.3) kg. The event probability of stroke/SEE was lower at a higher BMI irrespective of treatment, whereas the probability of major bleeding was lower at a higher BMI with warfarin but relatively unchanged across BMI with NOACs. NOACs reduced stroke/SEE overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.88]; P<0.001), with a generally consistent effect across BMI (Ptrend across HRs, 0.48). NOACs also reduced major bleeding overall (HRadj, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82-0.94]; P<0.001), but with attenuation of the benefit at a higher BMI (trend test across BMI [Ptrend], 0.003). The overall treatment effects of NOACs versus warfarin for secondary outcomes were consistent across BMI, with the exception of the net clinical outcome and death. While these outcomes were overall reduced with NOACs (net clinical outcome, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]; P<0.001; death, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86-0.97]; P=0.003), these benefits were attenuated at higher BMI (Ptrend, 0.001 and 0.08, respectively). All findings were qualitatively similar when analyzed across BW. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment effect of NOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation is generally consistent for stroke/SEE across the spectrum of BMI and BW, whereas the reduction in major bleeding is attenuated in those with higher BMI or BW. Death and the net clinical outcome are overall reduced with NOACs over warfarin, although there remain uncertainties for these outcomes at a very high BMI and BW.

Endothelin-1, Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction, and Effects of Dapagliflozin: Findings From DAPA-HF.

BACKGROUND: ET-1 (endothelin-1) is implicated in the pathophysiology of heart failure and renal disease. Its prognostic importance and relationship with kidney function in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction receiving contemporary treatment are uncertain. We investigated these and the efficacy of dapagliflozin according to ET-1 level in the DAPA-HF trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure). METHODS: We investigated the incidence of the primary outcome (cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure), change in kidney function, and the effect of dapagliflozin according to baseline ET-1 concentration, adjusting in Cox models for other recognized prognostic variables in heart failure including NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). We also examined the effect of dapagliflozin on ET-1 level. RESULTS: Overall, 3048 participants had baseline ET-1 measurements: tertile 1 (T1; ≤3.28 pg/mL; n=1016); T2 (>3.28-4.41 pg/mL; n=1022); and T3 (>4.41 pg/mL; n=1010). Patients with higher ET-1 were more likely male, more likely obese, and had lower left ventricular ejection fraction, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, worse functional status, and higher NT-proBNP and hs-TnT (high-sensitivity troponin-T). In the adjusted Cox models, higher baseline ET-1 was independently associated with worse outcomes and steeper decline in kidney function (adjusted hazard ratio for primary outcome of 1.95 [95% CI, 1.53-2.50] for T3 and 1.36 [95% CI, 1.06-1.75] for T2; both versus T1; estimated glomerular filtration rate slope: T3, -3.19 [95% CI, -3.66 to -2.72] mL/min per 1.73 m2 per y, T2, -2.08 [95% CI, -2.52 to -1.63] and T1 -2.35 [95% CI, -2.79 to -1.91]; P=0.002). The benefit of dapagliflozin was consistent regardless of baseline ET-1, and the placebo-corrected decrease in ET-1 with dapagliflozin was 0.13 pg/mL (95% CI, 0.25-0.01; P=0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline ET-1 concentration was independently associated with worse clinical outcomes and more rapid decline in kidney function. The benefit of dapagliflozin was consistent across the range of ET-1 concentrations measured, and treatment with dapagliflozin led to a small decrease in serum ET-1 concentration. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Variation in risk-adjusted cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) length of stay and the association with in-hospital mortality: An analysis from the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network (CCCTN) registry.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that there is wide variability in cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) length of stay (LOS); however, these studies are limited by the absence of detailed risk assessment at the time of admission. Thus, we evaluated inter-hospital differences in CICU LOS, and the association between LOS and in-hospital mortality. METHODS: Using data from the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network (CCCTN) registry, we included 22,862 admissions between 2017 and 2022 from 35 primarily tertiary and quaternary CICUs that captured consecutive admissions in annual 2-month snapshots. The primary analysis compared inter-hospital differences in CICU LOS, as well as the association between CICU LOS and all-cause in-hospital mortality using a Fine and Gray competing risk model. RESULTS: The overall median CICU LOS was 2.2 (1.1-4.8) days, and the median hospital LOS was 5.9 (2.8-12.3) days. Admissions in the longest tertile of LOS tended to be younger with higher rates of pre-existing comorbidities, and had higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores, as well as higher rates of mechanical ventilation, intravenous vasopressor use, mechanical circulatory support, and renal replacement therapy. Unadjusted all-cause in-hospital mortality was 9.3%, 6.7%, and 13.4% in the lowest, intermediate, and highest CICU LOS tertiles. In a competing risk analysis, individual patient CICU LOS was correlated (r2 = 0.31) with a higher risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality. The relationship remained significant in admissions with heart failure, ST-elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large registry of academic CICUs, we observed significant variation in CICU LOS and report that LOS is independently associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality. These findings could potentially be used to improve CICU resource utilization planning and refine risk prognostication in critically ill cardiovascular patients.

Prognostic performance of the IABP-SHOCK II Risk Score among cardiogenic shock subtypes in the critical care cardiology trials network registry.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification has potential to guide triage and decision-making in cardiogenic shock (CS). We assessed the prognostic performance of the IABP-SHOCK II score, derived in Europe for acute myocardial infarct-related CS (AMI-CS), in a contemporary North American cohort, including different CS phenotypes. METHODS: The critical care cardiology trials network (CCCTN) coordinated by the TIMI study group is a multicenter network of cardiac intensive care units (CICU). Participating centers annually contribute ≥2 months of consecutive medical CICU admissions. The IABP-SHOCK II risk score includes age > 73 years, prior stroke, admission glucose > 191 mg/dl, creatinine > 1.5 mg/dl, lactate > 5 mmol/l, and post-PCI TIMI flow grade < 3. We assessed the risk score across various CS etiologies. RESULTS: Of 17,852 medical CICU admissions 5,340 patients across 35 sites were admitted with CS. In patients with AMI-CS (n = 912), the IABP-SHOCK II score predicted a >3-fold gradient in in-hospital mortality (low risk = 26.5%, intermediate risk = 52.2%, high risk = 77.5%, P < .0001; c-statistic = 0.67; Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .79). The score showed a similar gradient of in-hospital mortality in patients with non-AMI-related CS (n = 2,517, P < .0001) and mixed shock (n = 923, P < .001), as well as in left ventricular (<0.0001), right ventricular (P = .0163) or biventricular (<0.0001) CS. The correlation between the IABP-SHOCK II score and SOFA was moderate (r2 = 0.17) and the IABP-SHOCK II score revealed a significant risk gradient within each SCAI stage. CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected international multicenter registry of patients admitted with CS, the IABP- SHOCK II score only moderately predicted in-hospital mortality in a broad population of CS regardless of etiology or irrespective of right, left, or bi-ventricular involvement.

Pulmonary Artery Diastolic Pressure as a Surrogate for Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure in Cardiogenic Shock.

BACKGROUND: It is common for clinicians to use the pulmonary artery diastolic pressure (PADP) as a surrogate for the pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP). Here, we determine the validity of this relationship in patients with various phenotypes of cardiogenic shock (CS). METHODS AND RESULTS: In this analysis of the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network registry, we identified 1225 people admitted with CS who received pulmonary artery catheters. Linear regression, Bland-Altman and receiver operator characteristic analyses were performed to determine the strength of the association between PADP and PCWP in patients with left-, right-, biventricular, and other non-myocardia phenotypes of CS (eg, arrhythmia, valvular stenosis, tamponade). There was a moderately strong correlation between PADP and PCWP in the total population (r = 0.64, n = 1225) and in each CS phenotype, except for right ventricular CS, for which the correlation was weak (r = 0.43, n = 71). Additionally, we found that a PADP ≥ 24 mmHg can be used to infer a PCWP ≥ 18 mmHg with ≥ 90% confidence in all but the right ventricular CS phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis validates the practice of using PADP as a surrogate for PCWP in most patients with CS; however, it should generally be avoided in cases of right ventricular-predominant CS.

Association of Sacubitril/Valsartan vs Valsartan With Blood Pressure Changes and Symptomatic Hypotension: the PARAGLIDE-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: In PARAGLIDE-HF, in patients with ejection fraction (EF) > 40%, stabilized after worsening heart failure (WHF), sacubitril/valsartan led to greater reduction in plasma NT-proBNP levels and was associated with clinical benefit compared to valsartan alone, despite more symptomatic hypotension (SH). Concern about SH may be limiting the use of sacubitril/valsartan in appropriate patients. METHODS: We characterized patients by the occurrence of SH (investigator-reported) after randomization to either sacubitril/valsartan or valsartan. A key trial inclusion criterion was systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 100 mmHg for the preceding 6 hours and no SH. We also compared outcomes based on baseline SBP stratified by the median blood pressure. The primary endpoint was time-averaged proportional change in NT-proBNP levels from baseline through weeks 4 and 8. A secondary hierarchical outcome (win ratio) consisted of: (1) cardiovascular death; (2) hospitalizations due to HF; (3) urgent HF visits; and (4) change in NT-proBNP levels. RESULTS: Among 466 randomized patients, 92 (19.7%) experienced SH (sacubitril/valsartan, n = 56 [24.0%]; valsartan, n = 36 [15.5%]; P = 0.020). The median time to the first SH event was similar between treatment arms (18 days vs 15 days, respectively; P = 0.42) as was the proportion of first SH events classified as serious by investigators. Patients who experienced SH with sacubitril/valsartan were more likely to be white (OR 1.87 [95% CI: 0.31, 11.15]), to have a lower baseline SBP (per 10 mmHg increase, OR 0.68 [95% CI: 0.55, 0.85]), or to have a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of > 60% (OR 2.21 [95% CI: 1.05, 4.65]). Time-averaged change in NT-proBNP levels did not differ between patients with baseline SBP ≥ 128 mmHg vs SBP < 128 mmHg (interaction, P = 0.43). The composite hierarchical outcome for sacubitril/valsartan in patients with baseline SBP ≥ 128 mmHg had a win ratio of 1.34 ([95% CI: 0.91, 1.99]; P = 0.096) vs SBP < 128 mmHg with a win ratio of 1.09 ([95%CI: 0.73, 1.66]; P = 0 .62; interaction P value = 0.42). CONCLUSION: Among patients with LVEF > 40% stabilized after WHF, incident SH was more common with sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan. SH was associated with lower baseline SBP, being white, and having higher LVEF. Treatment benefits with sacubitril/valsartan may be more pronounced in patients with higher baseline SBP and lower LVEF (≤ 60%). (Funded by Novartis Pharmaceutical Corporation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03988634.).

Modes of Death in Patients with Cardiogenic Shock in the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit: A Report from the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on how patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) die. METHODS: The Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network is a research network of cardiac intensive care units coordinated by the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Study Group (Boston, MA). Using standardized definitions, site investigators classified direct modes of in-hospital death for CS admissions (October 2021 to September 2022). Mutually exclusive categories included 4 modes of cardiovascular death and 4 modes of noncardiovascular death. Subgroups defined by CS type, preceding cardiac arrest (CA), use of temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS), and transition to comfort measures were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 1068 CS cases, 337 (31.6%) died during the index hospitalization. Overall, the mode of death was cardiovascular in 82.2%. Persistent CS was the dominant specific mode of death (66.5%), followed by arrhythmia (12.8%), anoxic brain injury (6.2%), and respiratory failure (4.5%). Patients with preceding CA were more likely to die from anoxic brain injury (17.1% vs 0.9%; P < .001) or arrhythmia (21.6% vs 8.4%; P < .001). Patients managed with tMCS were more likely to die from persistent shock (P < .01), both cardiogenic (73.5% vs 62.0%) and noncardiogenic (6.1% vs 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Most deaths in CS are related to direct cardiovascular causes, particularly persistent CS. However, there is important heterogeneity across subgroups defined by preceding CA and the use of tMCS.

Risk of new-onset diabetes and efficacy of pharmacological weight loss therapy.

AIMS: To develop a clinical risk model to identify individuals at higher risk of developing new-onset diabetes and who might benefit more from weight loss pharmacotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 21 143 patients without type 2 diabetes at baseline from two TIMI clinical trials of stable cardiovascular patients were divided into a derivation (~2/3) and validation (~1/3) cohort. The primary outcome was new-onset diabetes. Twenty-seven candidate risk variables were considered, and variable selection was performed using multivariable Cox regression. The final model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration, and for its ability to identify patients who experienced a larger benefit from the weight loss medication lorcaserin in terms of risk of new-onset diabetes. RESULTS: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 2.3 (1.8-2.7) years, new-onset diabetes occurred in 1013 patients (7.7%). The final model included five independent predictors (glycated haemoglobin, fasting glucose, age, body mass index, and triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein). The clinical risk model showed good discrimination (Harrell's C-indices 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.788-0.817 and 0.807, 95% CI 0.788-0.826) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The calibration plot demonstrated adequate calibration (2.5-year area under the curve was 81.2 [79.1-83.5]). While hazard ratios for new-onset diabetes with a weight-loss therapy were comparable across risk groups (annual risks of <1%, 1%-5%, and >5%), there was a sixfold gradient in absolute risk reduction from lowest to highest risk group (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical risk model effectively predicts new-onset diabetes, with potential implications for personalized patient care and therapeutic decision making.

Novel Tissue Factor Inhibition for Thromboprophylaxis in COVID-19: Primary Results of the ASPEN-COVID-19 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Thrombo-inflammation is central to COVID-19-associated coagulopathy. TF (tissue factor), a driver of disordered coagulation and inflammation in viral infections, may be a therapeutic target in COVID-19. The safety and efficacy of the novel TF inhibitor rNAPc2 (recombinant nematode anticoagulation protein c2) in COVID-19 are unknown. METHODS: ASPEN-COVID-19 was an international, randomized, open-label, active comparator clinical trial with blinded end point adjudication. Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and elevated D-dimer levels were randomized 1:1:2 to lower or higher dose rNAPc2 on days 1, 3, and 5 followed by heparin on day 8 or to heparin per local standard of care. In comparisons of the pooled rNAPc2 versus heparin groups, the primary safety end point was major or nonmajor clinically relevant International Society of Thrombosis and Haemostasis bleeding through day 8. The primary efficacy end point was proportional change in D-dimer concentration from baseline to day 8, or discharge if before day 8. Patients were followed for 30 days. RESULTS: Among 160 randomized patients, median age was 54 years, 43.1% were female, and 38.8% had severe baseline COVID-19. There were no significant differences between rNAPc2 and heparin in bleeding or other safety events. Overall, median change in D-dimer was -16.8% (interquartile range, -45.7 to 36.8; P=0.41) with rNAPc2 treatment and -11.2% (-36.0 to 34.4; P=0.91) with heparin (Pintergroup=0.47). In prespecified analyses, in severely ill patients, D-dimer levels tended to increase more within the heparin (median, 29.0% [-14.9 to 145.2]; P=0.02) than the rNAPc2 group (median, 25.9% [-49.1 to 136.4]; P=0.14; Pintergroup=0.96); in mildly ill patients, D-dimer levels were reduced within each group with a numerically greater reduction with rNAPc2 versus heparin (rNAPc2 median, -32.7% [-44.7 to 4.3]; P=0.007 and heparin median, -16.8% [-36.0 to 0.5]; P=0.008, Pintergroup=0.34). CONCLUSIONS: rNAPc2 treatment in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was well tolerated without excess bleeding or serious adverse events but did not significantly reduce D-dimer more than heparin at day 8. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04655586.

Outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation.

AIMS: The prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke while taking oral anticoagulation is poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize the outcomes of patients following a stroke event while on oral anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual participant data from five pivotal randomized trials of antithrombotic therapy in AF were used to assess the outcomes of patients with a post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (warfarin, standard-, or lower-dose direct oral anticoagulant regimen) during trial follow-up. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke after the first post-randomization ischemic stroke. The primary analysis included 1163 patients with a first post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (median age 73 years, 39.3% female, 35.4% history of stroke before trial enrollment). During a median continued follow-up of 337 days, 74 patients had a recurrent ischemic stroke [cumulative incidence at 1 year: 7.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.2%-8.7%]. The cumulative incidence of mortality at 3 months after stroke was 12.4% (95% CI 10.5%-14.4%). Consistent results for the incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke at 1 year were obtained in an analysis accounting for the competing risk of death (6.2%, 95% CI 4.8%-7.9%) and in a landmark analysis excluding the first 2 weeks after the index stroke and only including patients without permanent study drug discontinuation since then (6.8%, 95% CI 4.6%-8.9%). CONCLUSION: Patients with AF and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation are at increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and death. These patients currently have an unmet medical need.

Sacubitril/valsartan in heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction: a pre-specified participant-level pooled analysis of PARAGLIDE-HF and PARAGON-HF.

AIMS: The PARAGLIDE-HF trial demonstrated reductions in natriuretic peptides with sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan in patients with heart failure (HF) with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction who had a recent worsening HF event, but was not adequately powered to examine clinical outcomes. PARAGON-HF included a subset of PARAGLIDE-HF-like patients who were recently hospitalized for HF. Participant-level data from PARAGLIDE-HF and PARAGON-HF were pooled to better estimate the efficacy and safety of sacubitril/valsartan in reducing cardiovascular and renal events in HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Both PARAGLIDE-HF and PARAGON-HF were multicentre, double-blind, randomized, active-controlled trials of sacubitril/valsartan vs. valsartan in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF >40% in PARAGLIDE-HF and ≥45% in PARAGON-HF). In the pre-specified primary analysis, we pooled participants in PARAGLIDE-HF (all of whom were enrolled during or within 30 days of a worsening HF event) with a 'PARAGLIDE-like' subset of PARAGON-HF (those hospitalized for HF within 30 days). We also pooled the entire PARAGLIDE-HF and PARAGON-HF populations for a broader context. The primary endpoint for this analysis was the composite of total worsening HF events (including first and recurrent HF hospitalizations and urgent visits) and cardiovascular death. The secondary endpoint was the pre-specified renal composite endpoint for both studies (≥50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline, end-stage renal disease, or renal death). Compared with valsartan, sacubitril/valsartan significantly reduced total worsening HF events and cardiovascular death in both the primary pooled analysis of participants with recent worsening HF [n = 1088; rate ratio (RR) 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.99; P = 0.042] and in the pooled analysis of all participants (n = 5262; RR 0.86; 95% CI: 0.75-0.98; P = 0.027). In the pooled analysis of all participants, first nominal statistical significance was reached by Day 9 after randomization, and treatment benefits were larger in those with LVEF ≤60% (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.66-0.91) compared with those with LVEF >60% (RR 1.09; 95% CI 0.86-1.40; Pinteraction = 0.021). Sacubitril/valsartan was also associated with lower rates of the renal composite endpoint in the primary pooled analysis [hazard ratio (HR) 0.67; 95% CI 0.43-1.05; P = 0.080] and the pooled analysis of all participants (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.44-0.83; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: In pooled analyses of PARAGLIDE-HF and PARAGON-HF, sacubitril/valsartan reduced cardiovascular and renal events among patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction. These data provide support for use of sacubitril/valsartan in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction, particularly among those with an LVEF below normal, regardless of care setting.

Growth differentiation factor 15 and cardiovascular risk: individual patient meta-analysis.

AIMS: Levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), a cytokine secreted in response to cellular stress and inflammation, have been associated with multiple types of cardiovascular (CV) events. However, its comparative prognostic performance across different presentations of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual patient meta-analysis was performed using data pooled from eight trials including 53 486 patients. Baseline GDF-15 concentration was analyzed as a continuous variable and using established cutpoints (<1200 ng/L, 1200-1800 ng/L, > 1800 ng/L) to evaluate its prognostic performance for CV death/hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and their components using Cox models adjusted for clinical variables and established CV biomarkers. Analyses were further stratified on ASCVD status: acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stabilized after recent ACS, and stable ASCVD. Overall, higher GDF-15 concentration was significantly and independently associated with an increased rate of CV death/HHF and MACE (P < 0.001 for each). However, while GDF-15 showed a robust and consistent independent association with CV death and HHF across all presentations of ASCVD, its prognostic association with future myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke only remained significant in patients stabilized after recent ACS or with stable ASCVD [hazard ratio (HR): 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.31 and HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.05-1.28 for MI and stroke, respectively] and not in ACS (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.90-1.06 and HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.39-1.92, respectively). CONCLUSION: Growth differentiation factor 15 consistently adds prognostic information for CV death and HHF across the spectrum of ASCVD. GDF-15 also adds prognostic information for MI and stroke beyond clinical risk factors and cardiac biomarkers but not in the setting of ACS.

A polygenic risk score predicts atrial fibrillation in cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: Interest in targeted screening programmes for atrial fibrillation (AF) has increased, yet the role of genetics in identifying patients at highest risk of developing AF is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 36,662 subjects without prior AF were analyzed from four TIMI trials. Subjects were divided into quintiles using a validated polygenic risk score (PRS) for AF. Clinical risk for AF was calculated using the CHARGE-AF model. Kaplan-Meier event rates, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), C-indices, and net reclassification improvement were used to determine if the addition of the PRS improved prediction compared with clinical risk and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Over 2.3 years, 1018 new AF cases developed. AF PRS predicted a significant risk gradient for AF with a 40% increased risk per 1-SD increase in PRS [HR: 1.40 (1.32-1.49); P < 0.001]. Those with high AF PRS (top 20%) were more than two-fold more likely to develop AF [HR 2.45 (1.99-3.03), P < 0.001] compared with low PRS (bottom 20%). Furthermore, PRS provided an additional gradient of risk stratification on top of the CHARGE-AF clinical risk score, ranging from a 3-year incidence of 1.3% in patients with low clinical and genetic risk to 8.7% in patients with high clinical and genetic risk. The subgroup of patients with high clinical risk, high PRS, and elevated NT-proBNP had an AF risk of 16.7% over 3 years. The C-index with the CHARGE-AF clinical risk score alone was 0.65, which improved to 0.67 (P < 0.001) with the addition of NT-proBNP, and increased further to 0.70 (P < 0.001) with the addition of the PRS. CONCLUSION: In patients with cardiovascular conditions, AF PRS is a strong independent predictor of incident AF that provides complementary predictive value when added to a validated clinical risk score and NT-proBNP.

Serial Assessment of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Effect of Dapagliflozin in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: An Analysis of the DAPA-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: Circulating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) predominantly reflects myocardial injury, and higher levels are associated with a higher risk of worsening heart failure and death in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Less is known about the prognostic significance of changes in hsTnT over time, the effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes in relation to baseline hsTnT levels, and the effect of dapagliflozin on hsTnT levels. METHODS: DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of dapagliflozin (10 mg daily) in patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV symptoms and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% (median follow-up, 18.2 months). hsTnT (Roche Diagnostics) was measured at baseline in 3112 patients and at 1 year in 2506 patients. The primary end point was adjudicated worsening heart failure or cardiovascular death. Clinical end points were analyzed according to baseline hsTnT and change in hsTnT from baseline to 1 year. Comparative treatment effects on clinical end points with dapagliflozin versus placebo were assessed by baseline hsTnT. The effect of dapagliflozin on hsTnT was explored. RESULTS: Median baseline hsTnT concentration was 20.0 (25th-75th percentile, 13.7-30.2) ng/L. Over 1 year, 67.9% of patients had a ≥10% relative increase or decrease in hsTnT concentrations, and 43.5% had a ≥20% relative change. A stepwise gradient of higher risk for the primary end point was observed across increasing quartiles of baseline hsTnT concentration (adjusted hazard ratio Q4 versus Q1, 3.44 [95% CI, 2.46-4.82]). Relative and absolute increases in hsTnT over 1 year were associated with higher subsequent risk of the primary end point. The relative reduction in the primary end point with dapagliflozin was consistent across quartiles of baseline hsTnT (P-interaction=0.55), but patients in the top quartile tended to have the greatest absolute risk reduction (absolute risk difference, 7.5% [95% CI, 1.0%-14.0%]). Dapagliflozin tended to attenuate the increase in hsTnT over time compared with placebo (relative least squares mean reduction, -3% [-6% to 0%]; P=0.076). CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline hsTnT and greater increase in hsTnT over 1 year are associated with worse clinical outcomes. Dapagliflozin consistently reduced the risk of the primary end point, irrespective of baseline hsTnT levels. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Iron Deficiency in Heart Failure and Effect of Dapagliflozin: Findings From DAPA-HF.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is common in heart failure and associated with worse outcomes. We examined the prevalence and consequences of iron deficiency in the DAPA-HF trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse-Outcomes in Heart Failure) and the effect of dapagliflozin on markers of iron metabolism. We also analyzed the effect of dapagliflozin on outcomes, according to iron status at baseline. METHODS: Iron deficiency was defined as a ferritin level <100 ng/mL or a transferrin saturation <20% and a ferritin level 100 to 299 ng/mL. Additional biomarkers of iron metabolism, including soluble transferrin receptor, erythropoietin, and hepcidin were measured at baseline and 12 months after randomization. The primary outcome was a composite of worsening heart failure (hospitalization or urgent visit requiring intravenous therapy) or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of the 4744 patients randomized in DAPA-HF, 3009 had ferritin and transferrin saturation measurements available at baseline, and 1314 of these participants (43.7%) were iron deficient. The rate of the primary outcome was higher in patients with iron deficiency (16.6 per 100 person-years) compared with those without (10.4 per 100 person-years; P<0.0001). The effect of dapagliflozin on the primary outcome was consistent in iron-deficient compared with iron-replete patients (hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.58-0.92] versus 0.81 [95% CI, 0.63-1.03]; P-interaction=0.59). Similar findings were observed for cardiovascular death, heart failure hospitalization, and all-cause mortality. Transferrin saturation, ferritin, and hepcidin were reduced and total iron-binding capacity and soluble transferrin receptor increased with dapagliflozin compared with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Iron deficiency was common in DAPA-HF and associated with worse outcomes. Dapagliflozin appeared to increase iron use but improved outcomes, irrespective of iron status at baseline. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Phase 2b Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Recombinant Human Lecithin Cholesterol Acyltransferase in Acute ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Results of REAL-TIMI 63B.

BACKGROUND: High-density lipoprotein plays a key role in reverse cholesterol transport. In addition, high-density lipoprotein particles may be cardioprotective and reduce infarct size in the setting of myocardial injury. Lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase is a rate-limiting enzyme in reverse cholesterol transport. MEDI6012 is a recombinant human lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase that increases high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Administration of lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase has the potential to reduce infarct size and regress coronary plaque in acute ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. METHODS: REAL-TIMI 63B (A Randomized, Placebo­controlled Phase 2b Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI6012 in Acute ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction) was a phase 2B multinational, placebo-controlled, randomized trial. Patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction within 6 hours of symptom onset and planned for percutaneous intervention were randomly assigned 2:1 to MEDI6012 (2- or 6-dose regimen) or placebo and followed for 12 weeks. The primary outcome was infarct size as a percentage of left ventricular mass by cardiac MRI at 10 to 12 weeks, with the primary analysis in patients with TIMI Flow Grade 0 to 1 before percutaneous intervention who received at least 2 doses of MEDI6012. The secondary outcome was change in noncalcified plaque volume on coronary computed tomographic angiography from baseline to 10 to 12 weeks with the primary analysis in patients who received all 6 doses of MEDI6012. RESULTS: A total of 593 patients were randomly assigned. Patients were a median of 62 years old, 77.9% male, and 95.8% statin naive. Median time from symptom onset to randomization was 146 (interquartile range [IQR], 103-221) minutes and from hospitalization to randomization was 12.7 (IQR, 6.6-24.0) minutes, and the first dose of drug was administered a median of 8 (IQR, 3-13) minutes before percutaneous intervention. The index myocardial infarction was anterior in 69.6% and TIMI Flow Grade 0 to 1 in 65.1% of patients. At 12 weeks, infarct size did not differ between treatment groups (MEDI6012: 9.71%, IQR 4.79-16.38; placebo: 10.48%, [IQR, 4.92-16.61], 1-sided P=0.79. There was also no difference in noncalcified plaque volume (geometric mean ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, NA-1.10], 1-sided P=0.30). There was no significant difference in treatment emergent serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of MEDI6012 in patients with acute ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction did not result in a significant reduction in infarct size or noncalcified plaque volume at 12 weeks. MEDI6012 was well tolerated with no excess in overall serious adverse events. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03578809.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Patient-Level Network Meta-Analyses of Randomized Clinical Trials With Interaction Testing by Age and Sex.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are preferred over warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Meta-analyses using individual patient data offer substantial advantages over study-level data. METHODS: We used individual patient data from the COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) database, which includes all patients randomized in the 4 pivotal trials of DOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation (RE-LY [Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy], ROCKET AF [Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], ARISTOTLE [Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation], and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 [Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48]), to perform network meta-analyses using a stratified Cox model with random effects comparing standard-dose DOAC, lower-dose DOAC, and warfarin. Hazard ratios (HRs [95% CIs]) were calculated for efficacy and safety outcomes. Covariate-by-treatment interaction was estimated for categorical covariates and for age as a continuous covariate, stratified by sex. RESULTS: A total of 71 683 patients were included (29 362 on standard-dose DOAC, 13 049 on lower-dose DOAC, and 29 272 on warfarin). Compared with warfarin, standard-dose DOACs were associated with a significantly lower hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (883/29 312 [3.01%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.74-0.89]), death (2276/29 312 [7.76%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.97]), and intracranial bleeding (184/29 270 [0.63%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.37-0.56]), but no statistically different hazard of major bleeding (1479/29 270 [5.05%] versus 1733/29 187 [5.94%]; HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-1.01]), whereas lower-dose DOACs were associated with no statistically different hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (531/13 049 [3.96%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.95-1.19]) but a lower hazard of intracranial bleeding (55/12 985 [0.42%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.21-0.37]), death (1082/13 049 [8.29%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.97]), and major bleeding (564/12 985 [4.34%] versus 1733/29 187 [5.94%]; HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.45-0.88]). Treatment effects for standard- and lower-dose DOACs versus warfarin were consistent across age and sex for stroke or systemic embolism and death, whereas standard-dose DOACs were favored in patients with no history of vitamin K antagonist use (P=0.01) and lower creatinine clearance (P=0.09). For major bleeding, standard-dose DOACs were favored in patients with lower body weight (P=0.02). In the continuous covariate analysis, younger patients derived greater benefits from standard-dose (interaction P=0.02) and lower-dose DOACs (interaction P=0.01) versus warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with warfarin, DOACs have more favorable efficacy and safety profiles among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Anticoagulation and Antiplatelet Therapy for Prevention of Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Events in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19: COVID-PACT.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of prophylactic full-dose anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy in critically ill COVID-19 patients remain uncertain. METHODS: COVID-PACT (Prevention of Arteriovenous Thrombotic Events in Critically-ill COVID-19 Patients Trial) was a multicenter, 2×2 factorial, open-label, randomized-controlled trial with blinded end point adjudication in intensive care unit-level patients with COVID-19. Patients were randomly assigned to a strategy of full-dose anticoagulation or standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation. Absent an indication for antiplatelet therapy, patients were additionally randomly assigned to either clopidogrel or no antiplatelet therapy. The primary efficacy outcome was the hierarchical composite of death attributable to venous or arterial thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, clinically evident deep venous thrombosis, type 1 myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, systemic embolic event or acute limb ischemia, or clinically silent deep venous thrombosis, through hospital discharge or 28 days. The primary efficacy analyses included an unmatched win ratio and time-to-first event analysis while patients were on treatment. The primary safety outcome was fatal or life-threatening bleeding. The secondary safety outcome was moderate to severe bleeding. Recruitment was stopped early in March 2022 (≈50% planned recruitment) because of waning intensive care unit-level COVID-19 rates. RESULTS: At 34 centers in the United States, 390 patients were randomly assigned between anticoagulation strategies and 292 between antiplatelet strategies (382 and 290 in the on-treatment analyses). At randomization, 99% of patients required advanced respiratory therapy, including 15% requiring invasive mechanical ventilation; 40% required invasive ventilation during hospitalization. Comparing anticoagulation strategies, a greater proportion of wins occurred with full-dose anticoagulation (12.3%) versus standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation (6.4%; win ratio, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.08-3.55]; P=0.028). Results were consistent in time-to-event analysis for the primary efficacy end point (full-dose versus standard-dose incidence 19/191 [9.9%] versus 29/191 [15.2%]; hazard ratio, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.32-0.99]; P=0.046). The primary safety end point occurred in 4 (2.1%) on full dose and in 1 (0.5%) on standard dose (P=0.19); the secondary safety end point occurred in 15 (7.9%) versus 1 (0.5%; P=0.002). There was no difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.56-1.48]; P=0.70). There were no differences in the primary efficacy or safety end points with clopidogrel versus no antiplatelet therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients with COVID-19, full-dose anticoagulation, but not clopidogrel, reduced thrombotic complications with an increase in bleeding, driven primarily by transfusions in hemodynamically stable patients, and no apparent excess in mortality. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04409834.

Multi-marker risk assessment in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: Results from the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry.

BACKGROUND: The pathobiology of inflammation, thrombosis, and myocardial injury associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) may be assessed by circulating biomarkers. However, their relative prognostic importance has been incompletely described. METHODS: We analyzed data from patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from January 2020, to April 2021, at 122 US hospitals in the American Heart Association (AHA) COVID-19 cardiovascular (CV) disease registry. Patients with data for D-dimer, C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, natriuretic peptides [NP], or cardiac troponin (cTn) at admission were included. cTn quintiles were indexed to the assay-specific 99th percentile reference limits. Using multivariable logistic regression, we assessed the association between each biomarker by quintile [Q] and odds of in-hospital death and a cardiovascular and thrombotic composite outcome. RESULTS: Of 32,636 registry patients, 26,424 (81%) had admission values for ≥1 of the key biomarkers, of which 4,527 (17%) had admission values for all 5 biomarkers. Each biomarker revealed a significant gradient for in-hospital mortality from Q1 to Q5: D-dimer 14% to 35%, CRP 11%-32%, ferritin 11% to 30%, cTn 13% to 43%, and NPs 7% to 35% (Ptrend for each <.001). After adjustment for other biomarkers and clinical variables, Q5 for NPs (OR:4.67, 95% CI: 3.05-7.14) retained the greatest relative odds for death; cTn (OR:2.68, 95% CI: 2.00-3.59) and NPs (OR:7.14, 95% CI: 4.92-10.37) were associated with the greatest odds of the CV composite. Q5 for D-dimer was associated with the highest risk of thrombotic events (OR: 9.02, 95% CI: 5.36-15.18). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, cTn and NPs identified patients at high risk for an in-hospital adverse cardiovascular outcome, while elevations in D-dimer identified patients at risk for thrombotic complications.