Predicting nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer recurrence and progression in patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin: the CUETO scoring model.

PURPOSE: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin is the most effective therapy for nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. Recently to calculate the risks of recurrence and progression based on data from 7 European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials a scoring system was reported. However, in that series only 171 patients were treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin. We developed a risk stratification model to provide accurate estimates of recurrence and progression probability after bacillus Calmette-Guerin. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were analyzed on 1,062 patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin and included in 4 Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment trials. Stepwise multivariate Cox models were used to determine the effect of prognostic factors. In each patient the weight of all factors was summed to a total score. Patients were then divided into groups, and cumulative recurrence and progression rates were calculated. RESULTS: A scoring system was calculated with a score of 0 to 16 for recurrence and 0 to 14 for progression. Patients were categorized into 4 groups by score, and recurrence and progression probabilities were calculated in each group. For recurrence the variables were gender, age, grade, tumor status, multiplicity and associated Tis. For progression the variables were age, grade, tumor status, T category, multiplicity and associated Tis. For recurrence calculated risks using Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment tables were lower than those obtained with Sylvester tables. For progression probabilities were lower in our model only in patients with high risk tumors. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a scoring model to stratify the risk of recurrence and progression in patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin.

Sequential combination of mitomycin C plus bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is more effective but more toxic than BCG alone in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer in intermediate- and high-risk patients: final outcome of CUETO 93009, a randomized prospective trial.

BACKGROUND: Intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is an effective therapy in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), but it has limitations in terms of recurrence and toxicity. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the sequential combination of mitomycin C (MMC) and BCG is superior to BCG alone in increasing a disease-free interval (DFI). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a prospective randomized trial including 407 patients with intermediate- to high-risk NMIBC and allocated 211 to the MMC and BCG arm and 196 to the BCG-alone arm. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The trial was designed to provide concurrently a power of 80% for the detection of a relative risk reduction of 35% (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.65) of disease relapse with a type I error of 0.05. Times to events were estimated using cumulative incidence functions and compared using the Cox regression model. We used the Kaplan-Meier technique to estimate survival curves. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In the intention-to-treat analysis at 5 yr, DFI was significantly improved by the sequential scheme (HR: 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.83; p=0.003), reducing the disease relapse rate from 33.9% to 20.6%. Higher toxicity was observed with the combination, even reducing the MMC dose, especially in G3 local toxicity compared with BCG with a difference of 17.4% (95% CI, 7.6-27.2; p<0.001). In recurrent T1 tumors, the potential benefit of the sequential scheme was more evident than in the remaining subgroup (18.8% vs 12.8%), with a number needed to treat of five versus eight to avoid an event and with similar toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Although the sequential scheme is more effective than BCG alone in reducing disease relapse, due to higher toxicity it could be offered only to patients with a high likelihood of recurrence, such as those with recurrent T1 tumors. PATIENT SUMMARY: We analyzed the outcomes of a randomized trial demonstrating that in intermediate- to high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, mitomycin C and bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) reduced disease relapse compared with BCG alone but was more toxic. Consequently, it could be offered only to patients with recurrent T1 tumors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CUETO 93009.

Maintenance Therapy with 3-monthly Bacillus Calmette-Guérin for 3 Years is Not Superior to Standard Induction Therapy in High-risk Non-muscle-invasive Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma: Final Results of Randomised CUETO Study 98013.

BACKGROUND: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) maintenance therapy for 3 yr following BCG induction can reduce the progression of urothelial bladder carcinoma versus BCG induction alone, but is associated with high toxicity. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether a modified 3-yr BCG maintenance regimen following induction therapy is more effective than standard BCG induction therapy alone and exhibits a low toxicity profile. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients from the outpatient clinics of the participating centres with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder carcinoma (NMIBC) were randomised between October 1999 and April 2007. INTERVENTION: Participants received BCG induction once-weekly for 6 wk (no maintenance arm) or BCG induction followed by one BCG instillation every 3 mo for 3 yr (maintenance arm). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary endpoints were disease-free interval (DFI) and time to progression (TTP). Secondary endpoints included survival duration and toxicity. Differences between treatment arms were tested using Student's t test and χ(2) and log-rank tests. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 397 patients were randomised, 195 to the no-maintenance and 202 to the maintenance arm. A median time to recurrence was not reached in either treatment arm. DFI was similar between the arms (hazard ration [HR] 0.83; 95% CI 0.61-1.13; p=0.2) with disease relapse at 5 yr of 33.5% and 38.5%, respectively. TTP was also similar between the treatment arms (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.50-1.26; p=0.3), with a progression rate at 5 yr of 16% and 19.5%, respectively. There were no significant differences between the treatment groups for overall survival and cancer-specific survival at 5 yr. Twenty and five patients in the maintenance and no-maintenance arms, respectively, stopped treatment because of toxicity. The most common local side effects were frequency (65% of patients), dysuria (63%), and haematuria (43%); the most frequent systemic side effects were general malaise (7.2%) and fever (34%). CONCLUSIONS: In NMIBC patients treated with maintenance therapy comprising a single BCG instillation every 3 mo for 3 yr following standard induction BCG, we did not observe a decrease in recurrence and progression rates versus induction therapy alone. PATIENT SUMMARY: Patients who undergo surgery to remove bladder cancer are usually treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for 6 wk if there is a high risk of disease recurrence. Extending BCG therapy by 3 yr can further minimise disease recurrence and progression, but is associated with more side effects. We report that a modified 3-yr BCG treatment regimen showed low toxicity, but seemed to be no more effective than 6-wk treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CUETO 98013.

The EORTC tables overestimate the risk of recurrence and progression in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin: external validation of the EORTC risk tables.

BACKGROUND: European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk tables only included 171 patients treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the external validity of the EORTC tables in patients with NMIBC treated with BCG over 5-6 mo. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data on 1062 patients treated with BCG were analyzed. MEASUREMENTS: Discrimination was assessed using the concordance index (c-index) and the prognostic separation index (PSEP). For calibration, probabilities of recurrence and progression obtained with the EORTC risk tables in our series were compared with those reported by the EORTC. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With respect to the discriminative ability of the EORTC model, c-index was similar to those reported in the EORTC series for recurrence. However, c-indices for progression in our series were lower than c-indices reported by Sylvester et al. [1]. Although PSEP in our series was lower than in the EORTC series for recurrence at 1 yr, similar results were found at 5 yr. Regarding progression, PSEP in our series was lower than in the EORTC series. Whilst a successful stratification of recurrence and progression probability at 1 and 5 yr was achieved using the EORTC tables in our series, model calibration showed lower risks of recurrence than those reported by Sylvester et al. [1] in all groups. For progression, lower risks were found in higher-risk groups. There are some limitations in the present study. A different distribution of patients was found, with higher proportions of primary grade 3 T1 tumors and tumors in situ than in the EORTC series. An additional limitation is that prior recurrence of the EORTC table was not included in our parameters. Consequently, two separate analyses were performed for recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The EORTC model successfully stratified recurrence and progression risks in our cohort. However, the discriminative ability of the EORTC tables decreased in our patients for progression. Moreover, these tables overestimated risks of recurrence and progression after BCG therapy.

Prognostic factors in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin: multivariate analysis of data from four randomized CUETO trials.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic factors of recurrence and progression after intravesical adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder tumors. METHODS: From February 1990 to May 1999, the Spanish Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) group has performed four randomized phase 3 studies comparing different intravesical treatments in patients with noninvasive bladder cancer. Data from 1062 evaluable patients treated only with BCG were analyzed. Most patients received BCG once weekly for 6 consecutive weeks and a short-term BCG maintenance (once every 2 wk 6 times more). Associated tumor in situ (TIS) was found in 7.5% (n=80) of cases. There were 22.1% (n=235) patients with T1G3 tumors, 22.9% of whom (n=54) were associated with TIS. Stepwise multivariate Cox regression models with stratification by study and dose were used to assess the independent effect of predictive factors and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from the Cox model. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis demonstrated that female gender (HR=1.71) compared to male gender, recurrent tumors (HR=1.9) compared to primary tumors, multiplicity, and presence of associated TIS (HR=1.54) increased the risk of recurrence. Recurrent tumors (HR=1.62) compared to primary tumors, high-grade tumors (HR=5.64) compared to G1 tumors, T1 tumors (HR=2.15) compared to Ta tumors, and recurrence at 3-mo cystoscopy (HR=4.6) increased the risk of progression. CONCLUSION: Significant independent predictors for recurrence were female gender, history of recurrence, multiplicity, and presence of associated TIS. Age, history of recurrence, high grade, T1 stage, and recurrence at first cystoscopy were independent predictors of progression by multivariate Cox analysis.