The effect of COVID-19 on malaria cases in Zambia: a mixed effect multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: The burden of Malaria in Zambia remains a challenge, with the entire population at risk of contracting this infectious disease. Despite concerted efforts by African countries, including Zambia, to implement malaria policies and strategies aimed at reducing case incidence, the region faces significant hurdles, especially with emerging pandemics such as COVID-19. The efforts to control malaria were impacted by the constraints imposed to curb its transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria cases in Zambia and the factors associated by comparing the COVID-19 period and the pre-COVID-19 era. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional panel study in which routinely collected programmatic data on malaria was used. The data were extracted from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) for the period January 2018 to January 2022. The period 2018 to 2022 was selected purely due to the availability of data and to avoid the problem of extrapolating too far away from the period of interest of the study. A summary of descriptive statistics was performed in which the number of cases were stratified by province, age group, and malaria cases. The association of these variables with the COVID-19 era was checked using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and Kruskal‒Wallis test as applicable. In establishing the factors associated with the number of malaria cases, a mixed-effect multilevel model using the Poisson random intercept and random slope of the COVID-19 panel. The model was employed to deal with the possible correlation of the number of cases in the non-COVID-19 panel and the expected correlation of the number of cases in the COVID-19 panel. RESULTS: A total of 18,216 records were extracted from HMIS from January 2018 to January 2022. Stratifying this by the COVID-19 period/era, it was established that 8,852 malaria cases were recorded in the non-COVID-19 period, whereas 9,364 cases were recorded in the COVID-19 era. Most of the people with malaria were above the age of 15 years. Furthermore, the study found a significant increase in the relative incidence of the COVID-19 panel period compared to the non-COVID-19 panel period of 1.32, 95% CI (1.18, 1.48, p < 0.0001). The observed numbers, as well as the incident rate ratio, align with the hypothesis of this study, indicating an elevated incidence rate ratio of malaria during the COVID-19 period. CONCLUSION: This study found that there was an increase in confirmed malaria cases during the COVID-19 period compared to the non-COVID-19 period. The study also found Age, Province, and COVID-19 period to be significantly associated with malaria cases.

Training and capacity building in medical statistics in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine MSc in Medical Statistics, 1969 to 2021.

Since its inception in 1969, the MSc in medical statistics program has placed a high priority on training students from Africa. In this article, we review how the program has shaped, and in turn been shaped by, two substantial capacity building initiatives: (a) a fellowship program, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, and run through the International Statistical Epidemiology Group at the LSHTM, and (b) the Sub-Saharan capacity building in Biostatistics (SSACAB) initiative, administered through the Developing Excellence in Leadership, Training and Science in Africa (DELTAS) program of the African Academy of Sciences. We reflect on the impact of both initiatives, and the implications for future work in this area.

Effects of interventions for preventing road traffic crashes: an overview of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic crashes (RTCs) are among the eight-leading causes of death globally. Strategies and policies have been put in place by many countries to reduce RTCs and to prevent RTCs and related injuries/deaths. METHODS: In this review, we searched the following databases Ovid Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Epistemonikos, Web of Science, and LILACS for reviews matching our inclusion criteria between periods January 1950 and March 2020. We did not apply language or publication restrictions in the searches. We, however, excluded reviews that focused primarily on injury prevention and reviews that looked at crashes not involving a motor vehicle. RESULTS: We identified 35 systematic reviews matching our inclusion criteria and most of the reviews (33/35) included studies strictly from high-income countries. Most reviews were published before 2015, with only 5 published between 2015 and 2020. Methodological quality varied between reviews. Most reviews focused on enforcement intervention. There was strong evidence that random breath testing, selective breath testing, and sobriety checkpoints were effective in reducing alcohol-related crashes and associated fatal and nonfatal injuries. Other reviews found that sobriety checkpoints reduced the number of crashes by 17% [CI: (- 20, - 14)]. Road safety campaigns were found to reduce the numbers of RTCs by 9% [CI: (- 11, - 8%)]. Mass media campaigns indicated some median decrease in crashes across all studies and all levels of crash severity was 10% (IQR: 6 to 14%). Converting intersections to roundabouts was associated with a reduction of 30 to 50% in the number of RTCs resulting in injury and property damage. Electronic stability control measure was found to reduce single-vehicle crashes by - 49% [95% CI: (- 55, - 42%)]. No evidence was found to indicate that post-license driver education is effective in preventing road traffic injuries or crashes. CONCLUSION: There were many systematic reviews of varying quality available which included studies that were conducted in high-income settings. The overview has found that behavioural based interventions are very effective in reducing RTCs.

Interviewing adolescent girls about sexual and reproductive health: a qualitative study exploring how best to ask questions in structured follow-up interviews in a randomized controlled trial in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have documented inconsistent reporting of sexual behaviour by adolescents. The validity and reliability of self-reported data on issues considered sensitive, incriminating or embarrassing, is prone to social-desirability bias. Some studies have found that Audio Computer-Assisted Self Interviewing (ACASI) that removes the personal interaction involved in face-to-face interviews, decreases item non-response and increases reporting of sensitive behaviours, but others have found inconsistent or contradictory results. To reduce social desirability bias in the reporting of sensitive behaviours, face-to-face interviews were combined with ACASI in a cluster randomized trial involving adolescents in Zambia. METHODS: To explore adolescent girls' experiences and opinions of being interviewed about sexual and reproductive health, we combined Focus Group Discussions with girl participants and individual semi-structured interviews with teachers. This study was done after the participants had been interviewed for the 6th time since recruitment. Young, female research assistants who had conducted interviews for the trial were also interviewed for this study. RESULTS: Respondents explained often feeling shy, embarrassed or uncomfortable when asked questions about sex, pregnancy and abortion face-to-face. Questions on sexual activity elicited feelings of shame, and teachers, research assistants and girls alike noted that direct questions about sexual activities limit what the participant girls may be willing to share. Responding to more indirect questions in relation to the context of a romantic relationship was slightly easier. Efforts by interviewers to signal that they did not judge the participants for their behavior and increased familiarity with the interviewer reduced discomfort over time. Although some appreciated the opportunity to respond to questions on their own, the privacy offered by ACASI also provided an opportunity to give false answers. Answering on tablets could be challenging, but participants were reluctant to ask for assistance for fear of being judged as not conversant with technology. CONCLUSION: Strategies to avoid using overly direct language and descriptive words, asking questions within the context of a romantic relationship and a focus on establishing familiarity and trust can reduce reporting bias. For the use of ACASI, considerations must be given to the context and characteristics of the study population.

Numerous studies have found that adolescents may not answer truthfully or consistently when questioned about issues such as sexual activity, abortion and pregnancy. Such issues are considered sensitive, incriminating, or embarrassing, and answers may be influenced by a fear of being misjudged or sanctioned. In an attempt to collect more reliable data on sexual behaviour and childbearing, we combined face-to-face interviews with Audio Computer-Assisted Self Interviewing (ACASI) in a research trial involving adolescents in Zambia. In this study we aimed to explore adolescent girls' experiences and opinions of being interviewed about sexual and reproductive health when participating in the trial. We combined group discussions with girl participants and individual interviews with teachers. Participants said they felt shy, embarrassed or uncomfortable when asked questions about sex, pregnancy and abortion face-to-face. Teachers, girls and interviewers alike noted that very direct questions limit what the participants may be willing to share. Efforts by interviewers to signal that they did not judge the participants for their behaviour, and repeated interviews with the same interviewer reduced discomfort over time. Some liked ACASI whereas some said it made it easier to give false answers, and answering on electronic tablets could be challenging. To reduce embarrassment and increase the likelihood of honest answers we recommend avoiding overly direct language and descriptive words, and to relate questions about sexual activity to a romantic relationship. Interviewers who are able to establish familiarity and trust can make participants more comfortable.

Arterial spectral waveform analysis in the prediction of diabetic foot ulcer healing.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between (1) severity of vessel wall calcification, (2) number of patent vessels at the ankle and (3) arterial spectral waveform features, as assessed on a focused ankle Duplex ultrasound (DUS), and healing at 12-months in a cohort of patients who had their diabetic foot ulcers conservatively managed. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Scans performed on 50 limbs in 48 patients were included for analysis. Patient health records were prospectively reviewed for 12-months to assess for the outcome of ulcer healing. RESULTS: We identified that the number of waveform components, peak systolic velocity, systolic rise time and long forward flow as well as the number of vessels patent at the ankle on DUS, may be useful independent predictors of healing, as noted by the trend towards statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Arterial spectral waveform features may be useful in predicting the chance of diabetic foot ulcer healing.

Parent-child communication about sexual issues in Zambia: a cross sectional study of adolescent girls and their parents.

BACKGROUND: Parent-child communication about sexual issues can reduce risky sexual behaviour amongst adolescents. Risky sexual behaviour is of concern in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of early pregnancy, unsafe abortion and HIV are high. Parent-child communication about sexual issues presents a feasible approach for reducing sexual risk amongst adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa but limited research exists from the region. This study from Zambia examines the sociodemographic and psychosocial factors that are associated with whether parents communicate with their daughters about sexual issues. METHODS: Data from a cluster randomized controlled trial examining the effect of interventions aiming to reduce teenage pregnancy and school drop out in Zambia was used. The data was collected between January-July in 2018 and consists of structured, face to face interviews with 4343 adolescent girls and 3878 parents. Cross sectional analyses examined the associations between parent-child communication about sexual issues and sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics using univariate and multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Adolescent girls who felt connected to their parents and those who perceived their parents to be comfortable in communicating about sex, were more likely to speak to their parents about sexual issues than those who did not (AOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.52; and AOR 2.94, 95% CI 2.45-3.54, respectively). Girls whose parents used fear-based communication about sexual issues, and those who perceived their parents as being opposed to education about contraception, were less likely to communicate with their parents about sex than those who did not (AOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.65-0.89; and AOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.91, respectively). Girls enrolled in school were less likely to communicate with their parents about sex than those out of school (AOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.44-0.71). CONCLUSION: Parenting style, children's perception of parental attitudes and parental communication styles are associated with whether parents and children communicate about sexual issues. This may imply that parents can improve the chances of communicating with their children about sex by conveying non-judgemental attitudes, using open communication styles with neutral messages and appearing comfortable whilst displaying positive attitudes towards communication around sex and contraceptive use. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN12727868 , (4 March 2016).

Vaginal douching in Zambia: a risk or benefit to women in the fight against cervical cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer related deaths in 2013 among women in Zambia. We determined factors associated with vaginal douching with any solution other than water and examined its role as a risk factor for abnormal cervical lesions among Zambian women. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Cervical Cancer Prevention Program in Zambia among 11,853 women (15 years or older) who had screened for cervical cancer from 6 provinces of Zambia. Stata version 15 was used to analyze the data. Investigator led stepwise logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for various characteristics, with vaginal douching with any solution as primary outcome and abnormal cervical lesions as secondary outcome. RESULTS: Douching with any solution other than water was practiced by 8.1% (n = 960) of the study participants. Older women (35-44 and 45 years or older) vs young women (15-24 years old) were less likely to douche with a solution (AOR 0.74; 95% CI: 0.57-0.97, p = 0.027 and AOR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.49-0.87, P = 0.004), respectively, and so were women in informal employment compared to housewives (AOR 0.72; 95% CI: 0.58-0.89, p = 0.002). Odds of douching were higher among women with secondary vs. no formal education (AOR 1.64; 95% CI: 1.15-2.35, P = 0.007), and among women who used condoms sometimes compared to those who never with their regular sexual partners (AOR 1.19; 95% CI: 1.01-1.40, PP = 0.037). About 12.2% of study participants had abnormal cervical lesions. The use of either vinegar, ginger, lemon, salt or sugar solution was associated with increased risk of abnormal cervical lesions (AOR 7.37; 95% CI: 1.43-38.00, p = 0.017) compared to using water. CONCLUSION: We find an association between douching with a solution and a woman's age, educational attainment, occupation and condom use. Vaginal douching with either vinegar, ginger, lemon, salt or sugar solution was associated with increased risk for abnormal cervical lesions. We recommend further research on ever vs never douching and the risk for abnormal cervical lesions.

The challenge of community engagement and informed consent in rural Zambia: an example from a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for empirically based research on social and ethical challenges related to informed consent processes, particularly in studies focusing on adolescent sexual and reproductive health. In a pilot study of a school-based pregnancy prevention intervention in rural Zambia, the majority of the guardians who were asked to consent to their daughters' participation, refused. In this paper we explore the reasons behind the low participation in the pilot with particular attention to challenges related to the community engagement and informed consent process. METHODS: The pilot was implemented in two schools and examined the acceptability of a package of interventions including economic support to families to keep their girls in school, pocket money for girls, youth club meetings on reproductive health, and community meetings to sensitize the community. Focus group discussions (4) were conducted with girls who participated in the pilot, boys in their class and with parents. Individual semi-structured interviews (11) were conducted with teachers, peer educators and community health workers involved in the coordination of the intervention as well as with religious and traditional leaders. Data were analyzed through thematic analysis. RESULTS: The findings indicate that inadequate use of recognized community communication channels during the community engagement process and dissemination of information about the pilot resulted in limited understanding of the pilot concept by the community. This surfaced through uncertainty and fear that the intervention may result in loss of control over daughters, worries about why money was provided unconditionally to girls, and suspicion of links to satanism. The sense of insecurity appeared to be exacerbated by low literacy levels, poverty, fear of loss of bride wealth, perceived disregard for local perceptions of social status, and scanty trust in the actors implementing the pilot. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate use of locally appropriate channels in the dissemination of information created room for interpretation and facilitated development of mistrust, undermining the conditions for community engagement and actual informed consent. A key lesson learnt is the importance of taking seriously the complexity of local values and structures that may impact people's capability to consent or not consent to a study in an informed manner.

Human mobility and factors associated with malaria importation in Lusaka district, Zambia: a descriptive cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health problem in Zambia with an estimated 4 million confirmed cases and 2389 deaths reported in 2015. Efforts to reduce the incidence of malaria are often undermined by a number of factors such as human mobility which may lead to introduction of imported infections. The aim of this study was to establish the burden of malaria attributed to human mobility in Lusaka district and identify factors associated with malaria importation among residents of Lusaka district. METHODS: A cross sectional study was conducted in five randomly selected health facilities in Lusaka district from November 2015 to February 2016. Data was collected from 260 patients who presented with malaria and whose status was confirmed by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy. Each confirmed malaria case was interviewed using a structured questionnaire to establish their demographic characteristics, travel history and preventive measures. Travel history was used as a proxy to classify cases as either imported or local. Residency was also used as a secondary proxy for importation to compare characteristics of residents vs non-residents in relation to malaria importation. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with malaria importation among residents of Lusaka district. RESULTS: Out of 260 cases, 94.2% were classified as imported cases based on participants' travel history. There were 131 (50.4%) males and 129 (49.6%) females. Age distribution ranged from 0 to 68 years with a median age of 15 years (IQR 8-27). Imported cases came from all the ten provinces of Zambia with the Copperbelt Province being the highest contributor (41%). Of all imported cases, use of prophylaxis was found to be highly protective [AOR = 0.22 (95% CI 0.06-0.82); p-value = 0.024]. Other factors that significantly influence malaria transmission and importation by residents include duration of stay in a highly endemic region [AOR = 1.25 (95% CI 1.09-1.44); p-value = 0.001] and frequency of travel [AOR = 3.71 (95% CI 1.26-10.84); p-value = 0.017]. CONCLUSION: Human mobility has influenced malaria transmission in Lusaka district through a number of factors by importing infections. This leads to onward transmission and poses a challenge to malaria elimination and control. However, taking of prophylaxis is highly protective and must be highly recommended.

Women's decision-making and uptake of services to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zambia.

Women's empowerment is associated with engagement in some areas of healthcare, but its role in prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) services has not been previously considered. In this secondary analysis, we investigated the association of women's decision-making and uptake of health services for PMTCT. Using data from population-based household surveys, we included women who reported delivery in the 2-year period prior to the survey and were HIV-infected. We measured a woman's self-reported role in decision-making in her own healthcare, making of large purchases, schooling of children, and healthcare for children. For each domain, respondents were categorized as having an "active" or "no active" role. We investigated associations between decision-making and specific steps along the PMTCT cascade: uptake of maternal antiretroviral drugs, uptake of infant HIV prophylaxis, and infant HIV testing. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios via logistic regression. From March to December 2011, 344 HIV-infected mothers were surveyed and 276 completed the relevant survey questions. Of these, 190 (69%) took antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy; 175 (64%) of their HIV-exposed infants received antiretroviral prophylaxis; and 160 (58%) had their infant tested for HIV. There was no association between decision-making and maternal or infant antiretroviral drug use. We observed a significant association between decision-making and infant HIV testing in univariate analyses (OR 1.56-1.85; p < 0.05); however, odds ratios for the decision-making indicators were no longer statistically significant predictors of infant HIV testing in multivariate analyses. In conclusion, women who reported an active role in decision-making trended toward a higher likelihood of uptake of infant testing in the PMTCT cascade. Larger studies are needed to evaluate the impact of empowerment initiatives on the PMTCT service utilization overall and infant testing in particular.

Prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in Zambian school children.

BACKGROUND: The large global burden of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) has come to light in recent years following robust epidemiologic studies. As an operational research component of a broad program aimed at primary and secondary prevention of RHD, we sought to determine the current prevalence of RHD in the country's capital, Lusaka, using a modern imaging-based screening methodology. In addition, we wished to evaluate the practicality of training local radiographers in echocardiography screening methods. METHODS: Echocardiography was conducted on a random sample of students in 15 schools utilizing a previously validated, abbreviated screening protocol. Through a task-shifting scheme, and in the spirit of capacity-building to enhance local diagnostic and research skills, general radiographers based at Lusaka University Teaching Hospital (UTH) were newly trained to use portable echocardiography devices. Students deemed as screen-positive were referred for comprehensive echocardiography and clinical examination at UTH. Cardiac abnormalities were classified according to standard World Heart Federation criteria. RESULTS: Of 1102 students that were consented and screened, 53 students were referred for confirmatory echocardiography. Three students had definite RHD, 10 had borderline RHD, 29 were normal, and 11 students were lost to follow-up. The rates of definite, borderline, and total RHD were 2.7 per 1000, 9.1 per 1000, and 11.8 per 1000, respectively. Anterior mitral valve leaflet thickening and chordal thickening were the most common morphological defects. The pairwise kappa test showed fair agreement between the local radiographers and an echocardiographer quality assurance specialist. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of asymptomatic RHD in urban communities in Zambia is within the range of results reported in other sub-Saharan African countries using the WHF criteria. Task-shifting local radiographers to conduct echocardiography was feasible. The results of this study will be used to inform ongoing efforts in Zambia to control and eventually eliminate RHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov ( #NCT02661763 ).

Access factors linked to maternal deaths in Lundazi district, Eastern Province of Zambia: a case control study analysing maternal death reviews.

BACKGROUND: Access factors associated with maternal death are important to understand because they are considered to be an essential measure of women's health and indicative of the performance of health care systems in any community globally. This study aimed to analyse the access risk factors linked to maternal deaths in Lundazi district of the Eastern Province of Zambia using secondary data obtained from maternal death reviews and delivery registers. METHODS: This was a case-control study with cases being recorded maternal deaths for Lundazi district (n = 100) while controls were randomly selected Lundazi District Hospital deliveries (n = 300) for the period 2010 to 2015. STATA™ (Stata Corporation, Texas, TX, USA) version 12.0 was used to analyse data. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals with associated p-values were used to analyse disparities between cases and controls while bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were done to show associations. RESULTS: The likelihood of experiencing maternal death was 94% less among women who completed their scheduled antenatal care visits than those who did not (OR 0.06, 95% CI = 0.01-0.27, p = < 0.001). Delayed referral associated with maternal deaths and complications were 30% (30) for cases, 12% (37) for controls and 17% (67) for both cases and controls. Long distances, unskilled deliveries were 3%, (15) for both cases and controls with 13% (13) for cases and 1% (2) for controls only. CONCLUSION: Antenatal care is important in screening for pre-existing risk conditions as well as complications in early stages of pregnancy that could impact adversely during pregnancy and childbirth. Delay in seeking health care during pregnancy could be minimised if health services are brought closer to the communities to reduce on distances covered by pregnant women in Lundazi. Maternal education appears to influence antenatal health care utilisation because greater knowledge and understanding of the importance of antenatal care might increase the ability to select most appropriate service. Therefore, there is need for Lundazi District Health Office to scale up interventions that motivate women to make at least four scheduled antenatal care visits during pregnancy as recommended by the World Health Organization.

Community based interventions for strengthening adolescent sexual reproductive health and rights: how can they be integrated and sustained? A realist evaluation protocol from Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Research that explores how community-based interventions for strengthening adolescent sexual reproductive health and rights (SRHR) can be integrated and sustained in community health systems, is, to the best of our knowledge, very scarce, if not absent. It is important to document mechanisms that shape integration process in order to improve health systems' responsiveness towards adolescents' SRHR. This realist evaluation protocol will contribute to this knowledge in Zambia where there is increased attention towards promoting maternal, neonatal and child health as a means of addressing the current high early pregnancy and marriage rates. The protocol will ascertain: why, how, and under what conditions the integration of SRHR interventions into Zambian community health systems will optimise (or not) acceptability and adoption of SRHR services. This study is embedded within a randomized controlled trial - "Research Initiative to Support the Empowerment of Girls (RISE)"- which aims to reduce adolescent girl pregnancies and marriages through a package of interventions including economic support to families, payment of school fees to keep girls in school, pocket money for girls, as well as youth club and community meetings on reproductive health. METHODS: This is a multiple-case study design. Data will be collected from schools, health facilities and communities through individual and group interviews, photovoice, documentary review, and observations. The study process will involve 1) developing an initial causal theory that proposes an explanation of how the integration of a community-based intervention that aimed to integrate adolescent SRHR into the community health system may lead to adolescent-friendly services; 2) refining the causal theory through case studies; 3) identifying contextual conditions and mechanisms that shape the integration process; and 4) finally proposing a refined causal theory and set of recommendations to guide policy makers, steer further research, and inform teaching programmes. DISCUSSION: The study will document relevant values as well as less formal and horizontal mechanisms which shape the integration process of SRHR interventions at community level. Knowledge on mechanisms is essential for guiding development of strategies for effectively facilitating the integration process, scaling up processes and sustainability of interventions aimed at reducing SRH problems and health inequalities among adolescents.

Higher educational attainment associated with reduced likelihood of abnormal cervical lesions among Zambian women - a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The high burden of cervical cancer in Zambia prompted the Ministry of Health and partners to develop the cervical cancer prevention program in Zambia (CCPPZ) in 2006. Despite this intervention more women continue to die from the disease and there is little understanding of factors that may be linked with abnormal cervical lesions in the general population. We therefore examined if educational attainment is associated with abnormal cervical lesions among Zambian women aged 15 to 49 years. METHODS: This study used data from the cervical cancer prevention program in Zambia, where a total of 14,294 women aged 15 to 49 years were screened for cervical cancer at nine health facilities between October 2013 and September 2014. The data represents women from six provinces of Zambia, namely Southern, Central, Copperbelt, Luapula, North-western and Eastern provinces. Step-wise logistic regression analysis using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21 was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for educational attainment with presence of abnormal cervical lesions as outcome. Multiple imputation was further used to obtain the imputed stabilized estimates for educational attainment. RESULTS: The prevalence of abnormal cervical lesions, using the Visual Inspection with Acetic-acid (VIA) test was 10.7% (n = 1523). Educational attainment was inversely associated with abnormal cervical lesions (AOR = 0.75; 95% CI:0.70-0.81, AOR = 0.74; 95% CI:0.68-0.81 and AOR = 0.46; 95% CI:0.41-0.51) among women with primary, secondary and tertiary education, respectively, compared to those with no formal education. CONCLUSION: We find reduced likelihood of abnormal cervical lesions in educated women, suggesting a differential imbalance with women who have no formal education. These findings may be a reflection of inequalities associated with access to cervical cancer screening, making the service inadequately accessible for lower educated groups. This might also indicate serious limitations in awareness efforts instituted in the formative phases of the program. These findings underline the prevailing need for urgent concerted efforts in repackaging cervical cancer awareness programs targeting women with low or no formal education in whom the risk may be even higher.

Epidemiology of pharyngitis as reported by Zambian school children and their families: implications for demand-side interventions to prevent rheumatic heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Prompt and appropriate treatment of streptococcal pharyngitis decreases the risk of acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease (RHD). Understanding public perceptions and behaviors related to sore throat is fundamental to inform health programs aimed at eliminating new cases of RHD in endemic regions. We sought to describe the epidemiology of pediatric pharyngitis and its treatment, as reported by children and their parents or guardians in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional investigation using interviews and written surveys, nested in a school-based RHD prevalence study. Students and their parents were asked to report number of sore throats in the previous 12 months, treatment received, and type and place of treatment. A focused history and physical examination to detect pharyngitis was conducted and children were referred for follow-up as indicated. RESULTS: A total of 3462 students from 47 schools participated in the study, along with their parents or guardians. Six hundred and fifty eight (19%) parents/guardians reported their child had at least one sore throat in the previous year, and 835 (24%) of students reported at least one sore throat in the same time period. Girls were reported to have pharyngitis 50% more often than boys, and also made up two-thirds of the total students treated. Approximately two-thirds of children who had at least one episode of pharyngitis during the previous year were also reported to have received some form of treatment. The majority of treatments were received in government clinics (36.6%) and at home (26.3%). Half of treatments included an antibiotic. Nineteen students (0.5%) had clinically-apparent pharyngitis at screening. CONCLUSION: Pharyngitis is common among school-aged children and adolescents in Zambia, with females reporting significantly more sore throat episodes than males. Parents/guardians have variable knowledge about the frequency of sore throat in their children, and management of pharyngitis may be suboptimal for many children since more than a quarter were reported to have received treatment without skilled assessment. These results provide insight into current perceptions and practices related to sore throat in Zambia and will be used to design public awareness activities aimed at reducing RHD.

Use of Lot quality assurance sampling surveys to evaluate community health worker performance in rural Zambia: a case of Luangwa district.

BACKGROUND: The Better Health Outcomes through Mentoring and Assessment (BHOMA) project is a cluster randomized controlled trial aimed at reducing age-standardized mortality rates in three rural districts through involvement of Community Health Workers (CHWs), Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs), and Neighborhood Health Committees (NHCs). CHWs conduct quarterly surveys on all households using a questionnaire that captures key health events occurring within their catchment population. In order to validate contact with households, we utilize the Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) methodology. In this study, we report experiences of applying the LQAS approach to monitor performance of CHWs in Luangwa District. METHODS: Between April 2011 and December 2013, seven health facilities in Luangwa district were enrolled into the BHOMA project. The health facility catchment areas were divided into 33 geographic zones. Quality assurance was performed each quarter by randomly selecting zones representing about 90% of enrolled catchment areas from which 19 households per zone where also randomly identified. The surveys were conducted by CHW supervisors who had been trained on using the LQAS questionnaire. Information collected included household identity number (ID), whether the CHW visited the household, duration of the most recent visit, and what health information was discussed during the CHW visit. The threshold for success was set at 75% household outreach by CHWs in each zone. RESULTS: There are 4,616 total households in the 33 zones. This yielded a target of 32,212 household visits by community health workers during the 7 survey rounds. Based on the set cutoff point for passing the surveys (at least 75% households confirmed as visited), only one team of CHWs at Luangwa high school failed to reach the target during round 1 of the surveys; all the teams otherwise registered successful visits in all the surveys. CONCLUSIONS: We have employed the LQAS methodology for assurance that quarterly surveys were successfully done. This methodology proved helpful in identifying poorly performing CHWs and could be useful for evaluating CHW performance in other areas. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Identifier: NCT01942278 . Date of Registration: September 2013.

Underutilisation of routinely collected data in the HIV programme in Zambia: a review of quantitatively analysed peer-reviewed articles.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which routinely collected HIV data from Zambia has been used in peer-reviewed published articles remains unexplored. This paper is an analysis of peer-reviewed articles that utilised routinely collected HIV data from Zambia within six programme areas from 2004 to 2014. METHODS: Articles on HIV, published in English, listed in the Directory of open access journals, African Journals Online, Google scholar, and PubMed were reviewed. Only articles from peer-reviewed journals, that utilised routinely collected data and included quantitative data analysis methods were included. Multi-country studies involving Zambia and another country, where the specific results for Zambia were not reported, as well as clinical trials and intervention studies that did not take place under routine care conditions were excluded, although community trials which referred patients to the routine clinics were included. Independent extraction was conducted using a predesigned data collection form. Pooled analysis was not possible due to diversity in topics reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 69 articles were extracted for review. Of these, 7 were excluded. From the 62 articles reviewed, 39 focused on HIV treatment and retention in care, 15 addressed prevention of mother-to-child transmission, 4 assessed social behavioural change, and 4 reported on voluntary counselling and testing. In our search, no articles were found on condom programming or voluntary male medical circumcision. The most common outcome measures reported were CD4+ count, clinical failure or mortality. The population analysed was children in 13 articles, women in 16 articles, and both adult men and women in 33 articles. CONCLUSION: During the 10 year period of review, only 62 articles were published analysing routinely collected HIV data in Zambia. Serious consideration needs to be made to maximise the utility of routinely collected data, and to benefit from the funds and efforts to collect these data. This could be achieved with government support of operational research and publication of findings based on routinely collected Zambian HIV data.

Multiple Overimputation to Address Missing Data and Measurement Error: Application to HIV Treatment During Pregnancy and Pregnancy Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Investigations of the association of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) with pregnancy outcomes often rely on routinely collected clinical data, which are prone to missing data and measurement error. Measurement error in gestational age may bias the relation between combination ART and gestational age-based outcomes. METHODS: We demonstrate the use of multiple overimputation to address missing data and measurement error in gestational age. Using routinely collected clinical data from public health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia, we multiply imputed missing data and multiply overimputed observed values of gestational age. Poisson models with robust variance estimators were used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) for the associations of duration of combination ART with small for gestational age (SGA) and preterm birth. We compared results from a complete-case analysis, using multiple imputation to address missing data only and using multiple overimputation to address missing data and measurement error. RESULTS: In the complete-case analysis, there was no evidence of an association between duration of combination ART and SGA or preterm birth. When we performed multiple overimputation, RRs for SGA moved past the null, but remained imprecise. For preterm birth, RRs for 9-32 weeks of combination ART moved away from the null as the variance due to measurement error increased. CONCLUSION: When we used multiple overimputation to account for measurement error and missing data, we observed an increased risk of preterm birth with longer duration of combination ART. Future analyses examining associations between combination ART and pregnancy outcomes should consider using multiple overimputation to address measurement error in gestational age.

A risk score to identify HIV-infected women most likely to become lost to follow-up in the postpartum period.

Access to lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is expanding among HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). For this strategy to meaningfully improve maternal HIV outcomes, retention in HIV care is essential. We developed a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of loss to follow-up (LTFU) at 6 months postpartum from HIV care, using data from public health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia. LTFU was defined as not presenting for HIV care within 60 days of the last scheduled appointment. We used logistic regression to assess demographic, obstetric and HIV predictors of LTFU and to develop a simple risk score. Sensitivity and specificity were assessed at each risk score cut-point. Among 2029 pregnant women initiating cART between 2009 and 2011, 507 (25%) were LTFU by 6 months postpartum. Parity, education, employment status, WHO clinical stage, duration of cART during pregnancy and number of antenatal care visits were associated with LTFU (p-value < .10). A risk score cut-point of 11 (42nd percentile) had 85% sensitivity (95% CI 82%, 88%) and 22% specificity (95% CI 20%, 24%) to detect women LTFU and would exclude 20% of women from a retention intervention. A risk score cut-point of 18 (69th percentile) identified the 23% of women with the highest probability of LTFU and had sensitivity 32% (95% CI 28%, 36%) and specificity 80% (95% CI 78%, 82%). A risk score approach may be useful to triage a subset of women most likely to be LTFU for targeted retention interventions.

The Africa Center for Biostatistical Excellence: a proposal for enhancing biostatistics capacity for sub-Saharan Africa.

Sub-Saharan Africa has a shortage of well-trained biomedical research methodologists, in particular, biostatisticians. In July 2014, a group of biostatisticians and researchers from the region attended a brainstorming workshop to identify ways in which to reduce the deficit in this critical skill. The workshop recognized that recommendations from previous workshops on building biostatistics capacity in sub-Saharan Africa had not been implemented. The discussions culminated with a proposal to setup an Africa Center for Biostatistical Excellence, a collaborative effort across academic and researcher institutions within the region, as a vehicle for promoting biostatistics capacity building through specialized academic masters programs as well as regular workshops targeting researchers.