Algorithmic benchmark modulation: A novel method to develop success rates for clinical studies.

BACKGROUND: High-quality decision-making in the pharmaceutical industry requires accurate assessments of the Probability of Technical Success of clinical trials. Failure to do so will lead to lost opportunities for both patients and investors. Pharmaceutical companies employ different methodologies to determine Probability of Technical Success values. Some companies use power and assurance calculations; others prefer to use industry benchmarks with or without the overlay of subjective modulations. At AstraZeneca, both assurance calculations and industry benchmarks are used, and both methods are combined with modulations. METHODS: AstraZeneca has recently implemented a simple algorithm that allows for modulation of a Probability of Technical Success value. The algorithm is based on a set of multiple-choice questions. These questions cover a comprehensive set of issues that have historically been considered by AstraZeneca when subjective modulations to Probability of Technical Success values were made but do so in a much more structured way. RESULTS: A set of 57 phase 3 Probability of Technical Success assessments suggests that AstraZeneca's historical estimation of Probability of Technical Success has been reasonably accurate. A good correlation between the subjective modulation and the modulation algorithm was found. This latter observation, combined with the finding that historically AstraZeneca has been reasonably accurate in its estimation of Probability of Technical Success, gives confidence in the validity of the novel method. DISCUSSION: Although it is too early to demonstrate whether the method has improved the accuracy of company's Probability of Technical Success assessments, we present our data and analysis here in the hope that it may assist the pharmaceutical industry in addressing this key challenge. This new methodology, developed for pivotal studies, enables AstraZeneca to develop more consistent Probability of Technical Success assessments with less effort and can be used to adjust benchmarks as well as assurance calculations. CONCLUSION: The Probability of Technical Success modulation algorithm addresses several concerns generally associated with assurance calculations or benchmark without modulation: selection biases, situations where little relevant prior data are available and the difficulty to model many factors affecting study outcomes. As opposed to using industry benchmarks, the Probability of Technical Success modulation algorithm allows to accommodate project-specific considerations.

Fibrinogen does not relate to cardiovascular or muscle manifestations in COPD: cross-sectional data from the ERICA study.

Cardiovascular and skeletal muscle manifestations constitute important comorbidities in COPD, with systemic inflammation proposed as a common mechanistic link. Fibrinogen has prognostic role in COPD. We aimed to determine whether aortic stiffness and quadriceps weakness are linked in COPD, and whether they are associated with the systemic inflammatory mediator-fibrinogen. Aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), quadriceps maximal volitional contraction (QMVC) force and fibrinogen were measured in 729 patients with stable, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages II-IV COPD. The cardiovascular and muscular manifestations exist independently (P=0.22, χ2). Fibrinogen was not associated with aPWV or QMVC (P=0.628 and P=0.621, respectively), making inflammation, as measured by plasma fibrinogen, an unlikely common aetiological factor.

Chromhome: a rich internet application for accessing comparative chromosome homology maps.

BACKGROUND: Comparative genomics has become a significant research area in recent years, following the availability of a number of sequenced genomes. The comparison of genomes is of great importance in the analysis of functionally important genome regions. It can also be used to understand the phylogenetic relationships of species and the mechanisms leading to rearrangement of karyotypes during evolution. Many species have been studied at the cytogenetic level by cross species chromosome painting. With the large amount of such information, it has become vital to computerize the data and make them accessible worldwide. Chromhome http://www.chromhome.org is a comprehensive web application that is designed to provide cytogenetic comparisons among species and to fulfil this need. RESULTS: The Chromhome application architecture is multi-tiered with an interactive client layer, business logic and database layers. Enterprise java platform with open source framework OpenLaszlo is used to implement the Rich Internet Chromhome Application. Cross species comparative mapping raw data are collected and the processed information is stored into MySQL Chromhome database. Chromhome Release 1.0 contains 109 homology maps from 51 species. The data cover species from 14 orders and 30 families. The homology map displays all the chromosomes of the compared species as one image, making comparisons among species easier. Inferred data also provides maps of homologous regions that could serve as a guideline for researchers involved in phylogenetic or evolution based studies. CONCLUSION: Chromhome provides a useful resource for comparative genomics, holding graphical homology maps of a wide range of species. It brings together cytogenetic data of many genomes under one roof. Inferred painting can often determine the chromosomal homologous regions between two species, if each has been compared with a common third species. Inferred painting greatly reduces the need to map entire genomes and helps focus only on relevant regions of the chromosomes of the species under study. Future releases of Chromhome will accommodate more species and their respective gene and BAC maps, in addition to chromosome painting data. Chromhome application provides a single-page interface (SPI) with desktop style layout, delivering a better and richer user experience.