Vitamin D and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in People With Prediabetes : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data From 3 Randomized Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: The role of vitamin D in people who are at risk for type 2 diabetes remains unclear. PURPOSE: To evaluate whether administration of vitamin D decreases risk for diabetes among people with prediabetes. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov from database inception through 9 December 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Eligible trials that were specifically designed and conducted to test the effects of oral vitamin D versus placebo on new-onset diabetes in adults with prediabetes. DATA EXTRACTION: The primary outcome was time to event for new-onset diabetes. Secondary outcomes were regression to normal glucose regulation and adverse events. Prespecified analyses (both unadjusted and adjusted for key baseline variables) were conducted according to the intention-to-treat principle. DATA SYNTHESIS: Three randomized trials were included, which tested cholecalciferol, 20 000 IU (500 mcg) weekly; cholecalciferol, 4000 IU (100 mcg) daily; or eldecalcitol, 0.75 mcg daily, versus matching placebos. Trials were at low risk of bias. Vitamin D reduced risk for diabetes by 15% (hazard ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.96]) in adjusted analyses, with a 3-year absolute risk reduction of 3.3% (CI, 0.6% to 6.0%). The effect of vitamin D did not differ in prespecified subgroups. Among participants assigned to the vitamin D group who maintained an intratrial mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level of at least 125 nmol/L (≥50 ng/mL) compared with 50 to 74 nmol/L (20 to 29 ng/mL) during follow-up, cholecalciferol reduced risk for diabetes by 76% (hazard ratio, 0.24 [CI, 0.16 to 0.36]), with a 3-year absolute risk reduction of 18.1% (CI, 11.7% to 24.6%). Vitamin D increased the likelihood of regression to normal glucose regulation by 30% (rate ratio, 1.30 [CI, 1.16 to 1.46]). There was no evidence of difference in the rate ratios for adverse events (kidney stones: 1.17 [CI, 0.69 to 1.99]; hypercalcemia: 2.34 [CI, 0.83 to 6.66]; hypercalciuria: 1.65 [CI, 0.83 to 3.28]; death: 0.85 [CI, 0.31 to 2.36]). LIMITATIONS: Studies of people with prediabetes do not apply to the general population. Trials may not have been powered for safety outcomes. CONCLUSION: In adults with prediabetes, vitamin D was effective in decreasing risk for diabetes. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None. (PROSPERO: CRD42020163522).

Development of Parkinson Disease and Its Relationship with Incidentally Discovered White Matter Disease and Covert Brain Infarction in a Real-World Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the relationship between covert cerebrovascular disease, comprised of covert brain infarction and white matter disease, discovered incidentally in routine care, and subsequent Parkinson disease. METHODS: Patients were ≥50 years and received neuroimaging for non-stroke indications in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California system from 2009 to 2019. Natural language processing identified incidentally discovered covert brain infarction and white matter disease and classified white matter disease severity. The Parkinson disease outcome was defined as 2 ICD diagnosis codes. RESULTS: 230,062 patients were included (median follow-up 3.72 years). A total of 1,941 Parkinson disease cases were identified (median time-to-event 2.35 years). Natural language processing identified covert cerebrovascular disease in 70,592 (30.7%) patients, 10,622 (4.6%) with covert brain infarction and 65,814 (28.6%) with white matter disease. After adjustment for known risk factors, white matter disease was associated with Parkinson disease (hazard ratio 1.67 [95%CI, 1.44, 1.93] for patients <70 years and 1.33 [1.18, 1.50] for those ≥70 years). Greater severity of white matter disease was associated with increased incidence of Parkinson disease(/1,000 person-years), from 1.52 (1.43, 1.61) in patients without white matter disease to 4.90 (3.86, 6.13) in those with severe disease. Findings were robust when more specific definitions of Parkinson disease were used. Covert brain infarction was not associated with Parkinson disease (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.05 [0.88, 1.24]). INTERPRETATION: Incidentally discovered white matter disease was associated with subsequent Parkinson disease, an association strengthened with younger age and increased white matter disease severity. Incidentally discovered covert brain infarction did not appear to be associated with subsequent Parkinson disease. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:620-630.

Stratifying future stroke risk with incidentally-discovered white matter disease severity and covert brain infarct site.

BACKGROUND: Covert cerebrovascular disease (CCD) includes white matter disease (WMD) and covert brain infarction (CBI). Incidentally-discovered CCD is associated with increased risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. However, it is unknown whether the severity of WMD or the location of CBI predicts risk. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of incidentally-discovered WMD severity and CBI location with risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study includes patients 50 years old in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system who received neuroimaging for a non-stroke indication between 2009-2019. Incidental CBI and WMD were identified via natural language processing of the neuroimage report, and WMD severity was classified into grades. RESULTS: 261,960 patients received neuroimaging; 78,555 (30.0%) were identified to have incidental WMD, and 12,857 (4.9%) to have incidental CBI. Increasing WMD severity is associated with increased incidence rate of future stroke. However, the stroke incidence rate in CT-identified WMD is higher at each level of severity compared to rates in MRI-identified WMD. Patients with mild WMD via CT have a stroke incidence rate of 24.9 per 1,000 person-years, similar to that of patients with severe WMD via MRI. Among incidentally-discovered CBI patients with a determined CBI location, 97.9% are subcortical rather than cortical infarcts. CBI confers a similar risk of future stroke, whether cortical or subcortical, or whether MRI- or CT-detected. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing severity of incidental WMD is associated with an increased risk of future symptomatic stroke, dependent on the imaging modality. Subcortical and cortical CBI conferred similar risks.

Stratifying Future Stroke Risk with Incidentally Discovered White Matter Disease Severity and Covert Brain Infarct Site.

BACKGROUND: Covert cerebrovascular disease (CCD) includes white matter disease (WMD) and covert brain infarction (CBI). Incidentally discovered CCD is associated with increased risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. However, it is unknown whether the severity of WMD or the location of CBI predicts risk. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the association of incidentally discovered WMD severity and CBI location with risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study includes patients aged ≥50 years old in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system who received neuroimaging for a nonstroke indication between 2009 and 2019. Incidental CBI and WMD were identified via natural language processing of the neuroimage report, and WMD severity was classified into grades. RESULTS: A total of 261,960 patients received neuroimaging; 78,555 patients (30.0%) were identified to have incidental WMD and 12,857 patients (4.9%) to have incidental CBI. Increasing WMD severity is associated with an increased incidence rate of future stroke. However, the stroke incidence rate in CT-identified WMD is higher at each level of severity compared to rates in MRI-identified WMD. Patients with mild WMD via CT have a stroke incidence rate of 24.9 per 1,000 person-years, similar to that of patients with severe WMD via MRI. Among incidentally discovered CBI patients with a determined CBI location, 97.9% are subcortical rather than cortical infarcts. CBI confers a similar risk of future stroke, whether cortical or subcortical or whether MRI- or CT-detected. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing severity of incidental WMD is associated with an increased risk of future symptomatic stroke, dependent on the imaging modality. Subcortical and cortical CBI conferred similar risks.

Vitamin D Supplementation and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies support an association between a low blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, whether vitamin D supplementation lowers the risk of diabetes is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned adults who met at least two of three glycemic criteria for prediabetes (fasting plasma glucose level, 100 to 125 mg per deciliter; plasma glucose level 2 hours after a 75-g oral glucose load, 140 to 199 mg per deciliter; and glycated hemoglobin level, 5.7 to 6.4%) and no diagnostic criteria for diabetes to receive 4000 IU per day of vitamin D3 or placebo, regardless of the baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome in this time-to-event analysis was new-onset diabetes, and the trial design was event-driven, with a target number of diabetes events of 508. RESULTS: A total of 2423 participants underwent randomization (1211 to the vitamin D group and 1212 to the placebo group). By month 24, the mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level in the vitamin D group was 54.3 ng per milliliter (from 27.7 ng per milliliter at baseline), as compared with 28.8 ng per milliliter in the placebo group (from 28.2 ng per milliliter at baseline). After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, the primary outcome of diabetes occurred in 293 participants in the vitamin D group and 323 in the placebo group (9.39 and 10.66 events per 100 person-years, respectively). The hazard ratio for vitamin D as compared with placebo was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04; P = 0.12). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons at high risk for type 2 diabetes not selected for vitamin D insufficiency, vitamin D3 supplementation at a dose of 4000 IU per day did not result in a significantly lower risk of diabetes than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; D2d ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01942694.).

Prognostic models for COVID-19 needed updating to warrant transportability over time and space.

BACKGROUND: Supporting decisions for patients who present to the emergency department (ED) with COVID-19 requires accurate prognostication. We aimed to evaluate prognostic models for predicting outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, in different locations and across time. METHODS: We included patients who presented to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and were admitted to 12 hospitals in the New York City (NYC) area and 4 large Dutch hospitals. We used second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 (2137 and 3252 in NYC and the Netherlands, respectively) to evaluate models that were developed on first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 (12,163 and 5831). We evaluated two prognostic models for in-hospital death: The Northwell COVID-19 Survival (NOCOS) model was developed on NYC data and the COVID Outcome Prediction in the Emergency Department (COPE) model was developed on Dutch data. These models were validated on subsequent second-wave data at the same site (temporal validation) and at the other site (geographic validation). We assessed model performance by the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), by the E-statistic, and by net benefit. RESULTS: Twenty-eight-day mortality was considerably higher in the NYC first-wave data (21.0%), compared to the second-wave (10.1%) and the Dutch data (first wave 10.8%; second wave 10.0%). COPE discriminated well at temporal validation (AUC 0.82), with excellent calibration (E-statistic 0.8%). At geographic validation, discrimination was satisfactory (AUC 0.78), but with moderate over-prediction of mortality risk, particularly in higher-risk patients (E-statistic 2.9%). While discrimination was adequate when NOCOS was tested on second-wave NYC data (AUC 0.77), NOCOS systematically overestimated the mortality risk (E-statistic 5.1%). Discrimination in the Dutch data was good (AUC 0.81), but with over-prediction of risk, particularly in lower-risk patients (E-statistic 4.0%). Recalibration of COPE and NOCOS led to limited net benefit improvement in Dutch data, but to substantial net benefit improvement in NYC data. CONCLUSIONS: NOCOS performed moderately worse than COPE, probably reflecting unique aspects of the early pandemic in NYC. Frequent updating of prognostic models is likely to be required for transportability over time and space during a dynamic pandemic.

The cumulative incidence of dysphagia and dysphagia-free survival in persons diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION/AIMS: Dysphagia worsens mortality and quality of life for persons diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), yet our understanding of its incidence and timing remains limited. In this study we sought to estimate dysphagia incidence and dysphagia-free survival over time. METHODS: Using data from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials Database, we compared characteristics of persons with and without dysphagia upon study entry. To account for competing mortality risk, we used Kaplan-Meier curves to estimate the cumulative incidence of dysphagia and the median number of days until the development of dysphagia or death in those without dysphagia at study entry. RESULTS: Patients with dysphagia upon study entry were more likely to have bulbar onset and had faster rates of functional decline and shorter diagnostic delays. The cumulative incidence of new-onset dysphagia was 44% at 1 year and 64% at 2 years after trial enrollment for those with spinal onset, and 85% and 92% for those with bulbar onset. The median duration of dysphagia-free survival after trial enrollment was 11.5 months for those with spinal onset and 3.2 months for those with bulbar onset. DISCUSSION: Our findings underscore the high risk for dysphagia development and support the need for early dysphagia referral and evaluation to minimize the risk of serious dysphagia-related complications.

Agreement between neuroimages and reports for natural language processing-based detection of silent brain infarcts and white matter disease.

BACKGROUND: There are numerous barriers to identifying patients with silent brain infarcts (SBIs) and white matter disease (WMD) in routine clinical care. A natural language processing (NLP) algorithm may identify patients from neuroimaging reports, but it is unclear if these reports contain reliable information on these findings. METHODS: Four radiology residents reviewed 1000 neuroimaging reports (RI) of patients age > 50 years without clinical histories of stroke, TIA, or dementia for the presence, acuity, and location of SBIs, and the presence and severity of WMD. Four neuroradiologists directly reviewed a subsample of 182 images (DR). An NLP algorithm was developed to identify findings in reports. We assessed interrater reliability for DR and RI, and agreement between these two and with NLP. RESULTS: For DR, interrater reliability was moderate for the presence of SBIs (k = 0.58, 95 % CI 0.46-0.69) and WMD (k = 0.49, 95 % CI 0.35-0.63), and moderate to substantial for characteristics of SBI and WMD. Agreement between DR and RI was substantial for the presence of SBIs and WMD, and fair to substantial for characteristics of SBIs and WMD. Agreement between NLP and DR was substantial for the presence of SBIs (k = 0.64, 95 % CI 0.53-0.76) and moderate (k = 0.52, 95 % CI 0.39-0.65) for the presence of WMD. CONCLUSIONS: Neuroimaging reports in routine care capture the presence of SBIs and WMD. An NLP can identify these findings (comparable to direct imaging review) and can likely be used for cohort identification.

Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects in an Analysis of Pooled Individual Patient Data From Randomized Trials of Device Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale After Stroke.

Importance: Patent foramen ovale (PFO)-associated strokes comprise approximately 10% of ischemic strokes in adults aged 18 to 60 years. While device closure decreases stroke recurrence risk overall, the best treatment for any individual is often unclear. Objective: To evaluate heterogeneity of treatment effect of PFO closure on stroke recurrence based on previously developed scoring systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: Investigators for the Systematic, Collaborative, PFO Closure Evaluation (SCOPE) Consortium pooled individual patient data from all 6 randomized clinical trials that compared PFO closure plus medical therapy vs medical therapy alone in patients with PFO-associated stroke, and included a total of 3740 participants. The trials were conducted worldwide from 2000 to 2017. Exposures: PFO closure plus medical therapy vs medical therapy alone. Subgroup analyses used the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Score (a 10-point scoring system in which higher scores reflect younger age and the absence of vascular risk factors) and the PFO-Associated Stroke Causal Likelihood (PASCAL) Classification System, which combines the RoPE Score with high-risk PFO features (either an atrial septal aneurysm or a large-sized shunt) to classify patients into 3 categories of causal relatedness: unlikely, possible, and probable. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ischemic stroke. Results: Over a median follow-up of 57 months (IQR, 24-64), 121 outcomes occurred in 3740 patients. The annualized incidence of stroke with medical therapy was 1.09% (95% CI, 0.88%-1.36%) and with device closure was 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35%-0.65%) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.41 [95% CI, 0.28-0.60]). The subgroup analyses showed statistically significant interaction effects. Patients with low vs high RoPE Score had HRs of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.37-1.00) and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.11-0.42), respectively (P for interaction = .02). Patients classified as unlikely, possible, and probable using the PASCAL Classification System had HRs of 1.14 (95% CI, 0.53-2.46), 0.38 (95% CI, 0.22-0.65), and 0.10 (95% CI, 0.03-0.35), respectively (P for interaction = .003). The 2-year absolute risk reduction was -0.7% (95% CI, -4.0% to 2.6%), 2.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-3.6%), and 2.1% (95% CI, 0.9%-3.4%) in the unlikely, possible, and probable PASCAL categories, respectively. Device-associated adverse events were generally higher among patients classified as unlikely; the absolute risk increases in atrial fibrillation beyond day 45 after randomization with a device were 4.41% (95% CI, 1.02% to 7.80%), 1.53% (95% CI, 0.33% to 2.72%), and 0.65% (95% CI, -0.41% to 1.71%) in the unlikely, possible, and probable PASCAL categories, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients aged 18 to 60 years with PFO-associated stroke, risk reduction for recurrent stroke with device closure varied across groups classified by their probabilities that the stroke was causally related to the PFO. Application of this classification system has the potential to guide individualized decision-making.

Prehospital Triage Strategies for the Transportation of Suspected Stroke Patients in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Ischemic stroke patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) could benefit from direct transportation to an intervention center for endovascular treatment, but non-LVO patients need rapid IV thrombolysis in the nearest center. Our aim was to evaluate prehospital triage strategies for suspected stroke patients in the United States. METHODS: We used a decision tree model and geographic information system to estimate outcome of suspected stroke patients transported by ambulance within 4.5 hours after symptom onset. We compared the following strategies: (1) Always to nearest center, (2) American Heart Association algorithm (ie, directly to intervention center if a prehospital stroke scale suggests LVO and total driving time from scene to intervention center is <30 minutes, provided that the delay would not exclude from thrombolysis), (3) modified algorithms with a maximum additional driving time to the intervention center of <30 minutes, <60 minutes, or without time limit, and (4) always to intervention center. Primary outcome was the annual number of good outcomes, defined as modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2. The preferred strategy was the one that resulted in the best outcomes with an incremental number needed to transport to intervention center (NNTI) <100 to prevent one death or severe disability (modified Rankin Scale score of >2). RESULTS: Nationwide implementation of the American Heart Association algorithm increased the number of good outcomes by 594 (+1.0%) compared with transportation to the nearest center. The associated number of non-LVO patients transported to the intervention center was 16 714 (NNTI 28). The modified algorithms yielded an increase of 1013 (+1.8%) to 1369 (+2.4%) good outcomes, with a NNTI varying between 28 and 32. The algorithm without time limit was preferred in the majority of states (n=32 [65%]), followed by the algorithm with <60 minutes delay (n=10 [20%]). Tailoring policies at county-level slightly reduced the total number of transportations to the intervention center (NNTI 31). CONCLUSIONS: Prehospital triage strategies can greatly improve outcomes of the ischemic stroke population in the United States, but increase the number of non-LVO stroke patients transported to an intervention center. The current American Heart Association algorithm is suboptimal as a nationwide policy and should be modified to allow more delay when directly transporting LVO-suspected patients to an intervention center.

Population-Based Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model for Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernias.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the external validity of a well-known congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) clinical prediction model using a population-based cohort. STUDY DESIGN: Newborns with CDH born in California between 2007 and 2012 were extracted from the Vital Statistics and Patient Discharge Data Linked Files. The total CDH risk score was calculated according to the Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Study Group (CDHSG) model using 5 independent predictors: birth weight, 5-minute Apgar, pulmonary hypertension, major cardiac defects, and chromosomal anomalies. CDHSG model performance on our cohort was validated for discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: A total of 705 newborns with CDH were extracted from 3 213 822 live births. Newborns with CDH were delivered in 150 different hospitals, whereas only 28 hospitals performed CDH repairs (1-85 repairs per hospital). The observed mortality for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 7.7%, 34.3%, and 54.7%, and predicted mortality for these groups were 4.0%, 23.2%, and 58.5%. The CDHSG model performed well within our cohort with a c-statistic of 0.741 and good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully validated the CDHSG prediction model using an external population-based cohort of newborns with CDH in California. This cohort may be used to investigate hospital volume-outcome relationships and guide policy development.

Socially Desirable Responding and College Students with Dyslexia: Implications for the Assessment of Anxiety and Depression.

We investigated self-reported depressive and anxiety-related symptoms among college students with dyslexia, with emphasis on the role of socially desirable responding (SDR) in understanding these reports. Analyses included examination of differences in self-reported depressive symptoms, anxiety-related symptoms, and SDR. We also examined the relationships among SDR, depressive symptoms, anxiety-related symptoms, and reading skills. Participants with dyslexia demonstrated significantly higher SDR than did participants without dyslexia, and higher SDR was significantly associated with lower self-reported depressive and anxiety-related symptoms. Moreover, higher SDR was significantly associated with lower reading skills. There was no group difference on anxiety-related symptoms, but participants with dyslexia had higher depressive symptoms than did participants without dyslexia when SDR was controlled. Implications for the assessment of anxiety and depression among college students with dyslexia are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association between body weight and composition and plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D level in the Diabetes Prevention Program.

OBJECTIVE: We examined associations between body weight and plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration (25OHD) in prediabetes and sought to estimate the impact of adiposity on these associations. METHODS: The study was conducted in the placebo (n = 1082) and intensive lifestyle (n = 1079) groups of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), a multicenter trial to prevent type 2 diabetes in adults with prediabetes. Weight and 25OHD were measured at baseline, month 6, years 1 and 2. In a subset (n = 584), visceral (VAT) and subcutaneous (SAT) adiposity were assessed by computed tomography at baseline and year 1. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses, baseline body weight, total fat, VAT, and SAT were inversely associated with plasma 25OHD concentration after multivariable adjustment. VAT accounted for 40 % [95 % CI 11, 69] of the association of body weight with plasma 25OHD concentration. There was no significant contribution by total fat or SAT. Two-year changes in plasma 25OHD concentration varied inversely with changes in body weight (p < 0.0001). One-year changes in total fat, VAT, or SAT were not significant mediators of the association between change in plasma 25OHD concentration and body weight. CONCLUSION: Our study found an inverse association between body weight and plasma 25OHD concentration at baseline and over a 2-year period in adults with prediabetes. These findings in the DPP, a weight loss intervention study, raise the possibility that weight loss increases plasma 25OHD concentration. Whether adiposity mediates this association remains inconclusive.

Progression of moderate-to-severe carotid disease.

OBJECTIVE: Our goals were to investigate the degree to which patient demographics, risk factors, laboratory data, and medications influence moderate carotid disease progression among patients with asymptomatic moderate carotid disease and whether such associations are solely based on how progression is defined. In addition, we aimed to establish optimal threshold criteria to categorize patients at high risk of progression. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 621 arteries were evaluated for internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis between January 1997 and January 2014 and were determined to have moderate (50%-79%) stenosis via color duplex ultrasonography. "Moderate stenosis" was defined as an ICA peak systolic velocity (PSV) ≥120 cm/s and a diastolic ICA velocity <140 cm/s. Kaplan-Meier analysis of the time to progression was conducted using three independent end points: PSV ≥230 cm/s (liberal criterion); ICA/common carotid artery (CCA) ratio ≥4.0 (moderate criterion), and diastolic ICA velocity ≥140 cm/s (strict criterion). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated, and multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression models. Risk stratification criteria were based on optimal sensitivity and specificity generated from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The overall rate of progression was 28.5%, 21.1%, or 5.1% of study-eligible arteries over 5 years using liberal, moderate, or strict criterion, respectively. Using liberal criterion, multivariate analysis suggested that initial PSV ≥200 cm/s, ICA/CCA ratio ≥3, and male gender were significantly associated with progression. Using the moderate criterion, multivariate analysis revealed that initial PSV ≥200 cm/s, ICA/CCA ratio ≥3, age, and male gender were significantly associated with progression. Using the strict criterion, multivariate analysis revealed that initial PSV ≥200 cm/s was the only statistically significant predictor of progression. No additional patient demographics, comorbidities, initial laboratory values, or medications consistently influenced disease progression across any criteria in our study. ROC analysis suggests PSV ≥165 cm/s is an ideal threshold value for the categorization of high risk patients, as this resulted in an optimal screening sensitivity of nearly 91% and a specificity of 59% over 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: The timing and incidence of carotid disease progression depends on the definition of disease progression. Among all three criteria, only severity of disease at initial presentation reliably predicted progression. Based on the results of our ROC curve analysis, we propose that an initial ICA PSV ≥165 cm/s (sensitivity: 90.7%, specificity: 58.7%) represents a reasonable value for defining high progression risk over a 2-year interval.

Do patient safety indicators explain increased weekend mortality?

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine the differential role of patient safety indicator (PSI) events on mortality after weekend as compared with weekday admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality PSI events within a cohort of patients with nonelective admissions. First, we identified all patients with a PSI based on day of admission (weekend versus weekday). Then, we evaluated the outcome of mortality after each PSI event. Finally, we entered age, sex, race, median household income, payer information, and Charlson comorbidity scores in regression models to develop risk ratios of weekend to weekday PSI events and mortality. RESULTS: There were 28,236,749 patients evaluated with 428,685 (1.5%) experiencing one or more PSI events. The rate of PSI was the same for patients admitted on weekends as compared to weekdays (1.5%). However, the risk of mortality was 7% higher if a PSI event occurred to a patient admitted on a weekend as compared with a weekday. In addition, compared to patients admitted on weekdays, patients admitted on weekends had a 36% higher risk of postoperative wound dehiscence, 19% greater risk of death in a low-mortality diagnostic-related group, 19% increased risk of postoperative hip fracture, and 8% elevated risk of surgical inpatient death. CONCLUSIONS: Risk adjusted data reveal that PSI events are substantially higher among patients admitted on weekends. The considerable differences in death after PSI events in patients admitted on weekends as compared with weekdays indicate that responses to adverse events may be less effective on weekends.

Comparative outcomes of ß-lactam antibiotics in outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy: treatment success, readmissions and antibiotic switches.

OBJECTIVES: ß-Lactam antibiotics are commonly used in outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT), but data regarding outcomes of long-term therapy are limited. The purpose of this study was to compare treatment success, readmission and antibiotic switch rates in patients treated with ß-lactam antibiotics as OPAT. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective review of all patients, discharged from Tufts Medical Center with cefazolin, ceftriaxone, ertapenem or oxacillin, between January 2009 and June 2013. A competing risks analysis was used to compare the cumulative incidence of first occurrence of treatment success, antibiotic switch and 30 day readmission for each drug. RESULTS: Four hundred patients were identified (cefazolin n = 38, ceftriaxone n = 104, ertapenem n = 128 and oxacillin n = 130). Baseline demographics were similar. Treatment success rates were higher for ceftriaxone and ertapenem (cefazolin 61%, ceftriaxone 81%, ertapenem 73% and oxacillin 58%; P < 0.001). Thirty-day all-cause readmissions were similar (cefazolin 21%, ceftriaxone 14%, ertapenem 20% and oxacillin 15%; P = 0.46). In 400 OPAT courses, 37 out of 50 antibiotic switches were accomplished without readmission. Adverse drug events (ADEs) were the most common reason for outpatient antibiotic switches (31/37, 84%). The ADE rate was higher for the oxacillin group (cefazolin 2.0 versus ceftriaxone 1.5 versus ertapenem 2.9 versus oxacillin 8.4 per 1000 OPAT days; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: OPAT with ß-lactam antibiotics is effective, but antibiotic switches for adverse events were more frequent with oxacillin use. Clinicians should be cognizant of the risk of readmissions and ADEs in OPAT patients, as the value of OPAT lies in reducing patient morbidity and readmissions by managing ADEs and preventing clinical failures.

Baseline characteristics predict risk of progression and response to combined medical therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH).

OBJECTIVE: To better risk stratify patients, using baseline characteristics, to help optimise decision-making for men with moderate-to-severe lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) through a secondary analysis of the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms (MTOPS) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: After review of the literature, we identified potential baseline risk factors for BPH progression. Using bivariate tests in a secondary analysis of MTOPS data, we determined which variables retained prognostic significance. We then used these factors in Cox proportional hazard modelling to: i) more comprehensively risk stratify the study population based on pre-treatment parameters and ii) to determine which risk strata stood to benefit most from medical intervention. RESULTS: In all, 3047 men were followed in MTOPS for a mean of 4.5 years. We found varying risks of progression across quartiles. Baseline BPH Impact Index score, post-void residual urine volume, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, age, American Urological Association Symptom Index score, and maximum urinary flow rate were found to significantly correlate with overall BPH progression in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Using baseline factors permits estimation of individual patient risk for clinical progression and the benefits of medical therapy. A novel clinical decision tool based on these analyses will allow clinicians to weigh patient-specific benefits against possible risks of adverse effects for a given patient.

Is patient diagnosis a risk factor for organ space infection after colorectal resections?

BACKGROUND: Validated risk adjustment programs do not use patient diagnosis as a potential covariate in the evaluation of organ space infections. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that patient diagnosis is an important risk factor for organ space infection after colorectal resections. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study abstracting data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from January 2005 through December 2009. PATIENTS: Patients who underwent 1 of 3 types of colorectal resections (ileocolostomy, partial colectomy, and coloproctostomy) were identified by the use of Current Procedural Terminology codes. We excluded patients with concomitant formation of diverting or end stoma. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measured was organ space infection. ANALYSIS: Validated risk adjustment models were used with the addition of diagnostic codes. RESULTS: We identified 52,056 patients who underwent a colorectal resection of whom 1774 patients developed an organ space infection (3.4%) and 894 (50.2%) returned to the operating room for further surgery. For ileocolostomy, operations for endometriosis (OR, 7.8; 95% CI, 1.7-36.6) and intra-abdominal fistula surgery (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.5-6.0) were associated with increased risk of organ space infection. For partial colectomy, operations for intra-abdominal fistula surgery (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.3), IBD (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6-3.8), and bowel obstruction (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.6) were associated with an increased risk of organ space infection. For coloproctostomy, operations for malignant neoplasm (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.3) and diverticular bleeding (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.1-9.0) were associated with an increased risk of organ space infection. LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by the retrospective study design. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for National Surgical Quality Improvement Program covariates, intra-abdominal fistula, endometriosis, and diverticular bleeding were the diagnoses associated with the highest risk of organ space infection following colorectal resections.

Is the presence of medical trainees associated with increased mortality with weekend admission?

BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated increased inhospital mortality following weekend admission. We hypothesized that the presence of resident trainees reduces the weekend mortality trends. METHODS: We identified all patients with a non-elective hospital admission from 1/1/2003 through 12/31/2008. We abstracted vital status on discharge and calculated the Charlson comorbidity score for all inpatients. We compared odds of inpatient mortality following non-elective admission on a weekend day as compared to a weekday, while considering diagnosis, patient characteristics, comorbidity, hospital factors, and care at hospitals with resident trainees. RESULTS: Data were available for 48,253,968 patient discharges during the six-year study period. The relative risk of mortality was 15% higher following weekend admission as compared to weekday admission. After adjusting for diagnosis, age, sex, race, income level, payer, comorbidity, and weekend admission the overall odds of mortality was higher for patients in hospitals with fewer nurses and staff physicians. Mortality following a weekend admission for patients admitted to a hospital with resident trainees was significantly higher (17%) than hospitals with no resident trainees (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Low staffing levels of nurses and physicians significantly impact mortality on weekends following non-elective admission. Conversely, patients admitted to hospitals with more resident trainees had significantly higher mortality following a weekend admission.

Impact of Preexisting Heart Failure on Treatment and Outcomes in Older Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma.

Background: Older patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) often have comorbid cardiovascular disease; however, the impact of pre-existing heart failure (HF) on the management and outcomes of HL is unknown. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of pre-existing HF in older patients with HL and its impact on treatment and outcomes. Methods: Linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Medicare data from 1999 to 2016 were used to identify patients 65 years and older with newly diagnosed HL. Pre-existing HF, comorbidities, and cancer treatment were ascertained from billing codes and cause-specific mortality from SEER. The associations between pre-existing HF and cancer treatment were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for comorbidities and cancer treatment were used to estimate the association between pre-existing HF and cause-specific mortality. Results: Among 3,348 patients (mean age 76 ± 7 years, 48.6% women) with newly diagnosed HL, pre-existing HF was present in 437 (13.1%). Pre-existing HF was associated with a lower likelihood of using anthracycline-based chemotherapy regimens (OR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.29-0.60) and a higher likelihood of lymphoma mortality (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.06-1.46) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.57; 95% CI: 1.96-3.36) in models adjusted for comorbidities. One-year lymphoma mortality cumulative incidence was 37.4% (95% CI: 35.5%-39.5%) with pre-existing HF and 26.3% (95% CI: 25.0%-27.6%) without pre-existing HF. The cardioprotective medications dexrazoxane and liposomal doxorubicin were used in only 4.2% of patients. Conclusions: Pre-existing HF in older patients with newly diagnosed HL is common and associated with higher 1-year mortality. Strategies are needed to improve lymphoma and cardiovascular outcomes in this high-risk population.