Impact evaluation of a youth led intervention to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination rates in South Africa remain low at 51% of the adult population being fully vaccinated, defined as having two shorts of the COVID-19 vaccine with or without a booster. To improve vaccine uptake, a community-based intervention was tested in a high vaccine hesitancy community in South Africa. Trained community youths used social media, face to face interactions, door to door and neighbourhood outreach activities to deliver the intervention. METHODS: To assess if the intervention had an impact, data was collected before the intervention and after the intervention in two districts, Wentworth an intervention site and Newlands East a control site. Both districts are in KwaZulu Natal Province, South Africa. The following outcomes, changes on perceptions and knowledge about COVID-19, intention to get vaccinated for those who were not fully vaccinated and vaccination uptake were assessed using difference-in-difference methods applied through Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighting and contrasts of Potential Outcome Means (POM). RESULTS: One thousand, one hundred and fifty (1 150) participants agreed to take part in the study at baseline, and 916 (80%) were followed up after the 9-week intervention period. Intention to get vaccinated for COVID-19 was higher (difference-in-difference, DID 20%, 95% CI 6% - 35% higher), more people were fully vaccinated (DID 10%, 95% CI 0% - 20%) or partially vaccinated (DID 16%, 95% CI 6% - 26%) in Wentworth the intervention site compared to Newlands East, the control site. There were noticeable increases on the percentage of study participants indicating trust on the Government's COVID 19 programme, from 24% at baseline to 48% after the intervention in the intervention group than in the control group, 26% baseline and 29% at follow-up. There was a 10% (absolute) increase on the percentage of participants' saying they believed health care workers provided reliable information, 58% at baseline and 68% at follow-up in the intervention group, but there was little change in the control group 56% and 57% for baseline and follow-up respectively. CONCLUSION: The youth-led intervention implemented in Wentworth, a community with a high rate of vaccine hesitancy, was effective in increasing vaccination uptake. Given the low COVID-19 vaccine coverage in South Africa and across the African region, as well as the new emerging variant of concern (XBB 1.5), there is an urgent need to scale up such intervention at the community level to address persistent misinformation and promote vaccine equality.

Modelling the impact of vaccination and environmental transmission on the dynamics of monkeypox virus under Caputo operator.

In this study, we examine the impact of vaccination and environmental transmission on the dynamics of the monkeypox. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission under Caputo fractional order. We obtain the basic reproduction number, the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Under the Caputo fractional order, existence and uniqueness solutions have been determined using fixed point theorem. Numerical trajectories are obtained. Furthermore, we explored some of the sensitive parameters impact. Based on the trajectories, we hypothesised that the memory index or fractional order could use to control the Monkeypox virus transmission dynamics. We observed that if the proper vaccination is administrated, public health education is given, and practice like personal hygiene and proper disinfection spray, the infected individuals decreases.

Mathematical epidemiological modeling and analysis of monkeypox dynamism with non-pharmaceutical intervention using real data from United Kingdom.

In this study, a mathematical model for studying the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission with non-pharmaceutical intervention is created, examined, and simulated using real-time data. Positiveness, invariance, and boundedness of the solutions are thus examined as fundamental features of mathematical models. The equilibrium points and the prerequisites for their stability are achieved. The basic reproduction number and thus the virus transmission coefficient ℜ0 were determined and quantitatively used to study the global stability of the model's steady state. Furthermore, this study considered the sensitivity analysis of the parameters according to ℜ0. The most sensitive variables that are important for infection control are determined using the normalized forward sensitivity index. Data from the United Kingdom collected between May and August 2022, which also aid in demonstrating the usefulness and practical application of the model to the spread of the disease in the United Kingdom, were used. In addition, using the Caputo-Fabrizio operator, Krasnoselskii's fixed point theorem has been used to analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solutions to the suggested model. The numerical simulations are presented to assess the system dynamic behavior. More vulnerability was observed when monkeypox virus cases first appeared recently as a result of numerical calculations. We advise the policymakers to consider these elements to control monkeypox transmission. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that another control parameter could be the memory index or fractional order.

How did South Africans with disabilities experience COVID-19? Results of an online survey.

Background: People with disabilities are a large, disadvantaged minority, comprising approximately 12% of the population. The South African government has ratified international and regional disability treaties but deals with disability rights within general anti-discrimination legislation. There are no specific frameworks to monitor justice for people with disabilities. The study aims to inform further development of disability inclusive mechanisms relating to crises including pandemics. Objectives: This study explored the perceptions of South Africans with disabilities, to understand their experiences during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), focussing on socioeconomic, well-being and human rights aspects. Method: An online survey tool generated quantitative and qualitative data. Widespread publicity and broad recruitment were achieved through project partners networks. Participants responded via mobile phone and/or online platforms. Results: Nearly 2000 people responded, representing different genders, impairments, races, socio-economic status, education and ages. Findings include: (1) negative economic and emotional impacts, (2) a lack of inclusive and accessible information, (3) reduced access to services, (4) uncertainty about government and non-government agencies' support and (5)exacerbation of pre-existing disadvantages. These findings echo international predictions of COVID-19 disproportionally impacting people with disabilities. Conclusion: The evidence reveals that people with disabilities in South Africa experienced many negative impacts of the pandemic. Strategies to control the virus largely ignored attending to human rights and socioeconomic well-being of this marginalised group. Contribution: The evidence will inform the development of the national monitoring framework, recognised by the South African Government and emphasised by the United Nations as necessary to ensure the realisation of the rights of people with disabilities during future crises including pandemics.

A nonlinear fractional epidemic model for the Marburg virus transmission with public health education.

In this study, a deterministic model for the dynamics of Marburg virus transmission that incorporates the impact of public health education is being formulated and analyzed. The Caputo fractional-order derivative is used to extend the traditional integer model to a fractional-based model. The model's positivity and boundedness are also under investigation. We obtain the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Under the Caputo fractional-order derivative, we establish the existence-uniqueness theory using the Banach contraction mapping principle for the solution of the proposed model. We use functional techniques to demonstrate the proposed model's stability under the Ulam-Hyers condition. The numerical solutions are being determined through the Predictor-Corrector scheme. Awareness, as a form of education that lowers the risk of danger, is reducing susceptibility and the risk of infection. We employ numerical simulations to showcase the variety of realistic parameter values that support the argument that human awareness, as a form of education, considerably lowers susceptibility and the risk of infection.

Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa's response to COVID-19: A "what if" scenario.

BACKGROUND: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub-Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a complete lockdown for more than 100 days. Evidence across most countries has shown that, it is vital to monitor the progression of pandemics and assess the effects of various public health measures, such as lockdowns. Countries need to have scientific tools to assist in monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of mitigation interventions. The objective of this study was thus to assess the extent to which a systems dynamics model can forecast COVID-19 infections in South Africa and be a useful tool in evaluating government interventions to manage the epidemic through 'what if' simulations. DESIGN AND METHODS: This study presents a systems dynamics model (SD) of the COVID-19 infection in South Africa, as one of such tools. The development of the SD model in this study is grounded in design science research which fundamentally builds on prior research of modelling complex systems. RESULTS: The SD model satisfactorily replicates the general trend of COVID-19 infections and recovery for South Africa within the first 100 days of the pandemic. The model further confirms that the decision to lockdown the country was a right one, otherwise the country's health capacity would have been overwhelmed. Going forward, the model predicts that the level of infection in the country will peak towards the last quarter of 2020, and thereafter start to decline.  Conclusions: Ultimately, the model structure and simulations suggest that a systems dynamics model can be a useful tool in monitoring, predicting and testing interventions to manage COVID-19 with an acceptable margin of error. Moreover, the model can be developed further to include more variables as more facts on the COVID-19 emerge.

How did South Africans with disabilities experience COVID-19? Results of an online survey

Background: People with disabilities are a large, disadvantaged minority, comprising approximately 12% of the population. The South African government has ratified international and regional disability treaties but deals with disability rights within general anti-discrimination legislation. There are no specific frameworks to monitor justice for people with disabilities. The study aims to inform further development of disability inclusive mechanisms relating to crises including pandemics. Objectives: This study explored the perceptions of South Africans with disabilities, to understand their experiences during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), focussing on socioeconomic, well-being and human rights aspects. Method: An online survey tool generated quantitative and qualitative data. Widespread publicity and broad recruitment were achieved through project partners networks. Participants responded via mobile phone and/or online platforms. Results: Nearly 2000 people responded, representing different genders, impairments, races, socio-economic status, education and ages. Findings include: (1) negative economic and emotional impacts, (2) a lack of inclusive and accessible information, (3) reduced access to services, (4) uncertainty about government and non-government agencies' support and (5) exacerbation of pre-existing disadvantages. These findings echo international predictions of COVID-19 disproportionally impacting people with disabilities. Conclusion: The evidence reveals that people with disabilities in South Africa experienced many negative impacts of the pandemic. Strategies to control the virus largely ignored attending to human rights and socioeconomic well-being of this marginalised group. Contribution: The evidence will inform the development of the national monitoring framework, recognised by the South African Government and emphasised by the United Nations as necessary to ensure the realisation of the rights of people with disabilities during future crises including pandemics.