Cost-Effectiveness of Vericiguat in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) demonstrated that, in patients with high-risk heart failure, vericiguat reduced the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization relative to placebo. The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84-1.07). In a prespecified analysis, treatment effects varied substantially as a function of baseline NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels, with survival benefit for vericiguat in the lower NT-proBNP quartiles (hazard ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.69-0.97]) and no benefit in the highest NT-proBNP quartile (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.95-1.38]). An economic analysis was a major secondary objective of the VICTORIA research program. METHODS: Medical resource use data were collected for all VICTORIA patients (N=5050). Costs were estimated by applying externally derived US cost weights to resource use counts. Life expectancy was projected from patient-level empirical trial survival results with the use of age-based survival modeling methods. Quality-of-life adjustments were based on prospectively collected EQ-5D-based utilities. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, comparing vericiguat with placebo, assessed from the US health care sector perspective over a lifetime horizon. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using the total VICTORIA cohort, both with and without interaction between treatment and baseline NT-proBNP. RESULTS: Life expectancy modeling results varied according to whether the observed heterogeneity of treatment effect by baseline NT-proBNP values was incorporated into the modeling. Including the interaction term, the vericiguat arm had an estimated quality-adjusted life expectancy of 4.56 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with 4.13 QALYs for placebo (incremental discounted QALY, 0.43). Without the treatment heterogeneity/interaction term, vericiguat had 4.50 QALYs compared with 4.33 QALYs for placebo (incremental discounted QALY, 0.17). Incremental discounted costs (vericiguat minus placebo) were $28 546 with the treatment interaction and $20 948 without it. Corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $66 509 per QALY allowing for treatment heterogeneity and $124 512 without heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Vericiguat use in the VICTORIA trial met criteria for intermediate value, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates were sensitive to whether the analysis accounted for observed NT-proBNP treatment effect heterogeneity. The cost-effectiveness of vericiguat was driven by the projected incremental life expectancy among patients in the lowest 3 quartiles of NT-proBNP. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Physical Rehabilitation for Older Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Older patients who are hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure have high rates of physical frailty, poor quality of life, delayed recovery, and frequent rehospitalizations. Interventions to address physical frailty in this population are not well established. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial to evaluate a transitional, tailored, progressive rehabilitation intervention that included four physical-function domains (strength, balance, mobility, and endurance). The intervention was initiated during, or early after, hospitalization for heart failure and was continued after discharge for 36 outpatient sessions. The primary outcome was the score on the Short Physical Performance Battery (total scores range from 0 to 12, with lower scores indicating more severe physical dysfunction) at 3 months. The secondary outcome was the 6-month rate of rehospitalization for any cause. RESULTS: A total of 349 patients underwent randomization; 175 were assigned to the rehabilitation intervention and 174 to usual care (control). At baseline, patients in each group had markedly impaired physical function, and 97% were frail or prefrail; the mean number of coexisting conditions was five in each group. Patient retention in the intervention group was 82%, and adherence to the intervention sessions was 67%. After adjustment for baseline Short Physical Performance Battery score and other baseline characteristics, the least-squares mean (±SE) score on the Short Physical Performance Battery at 3 months was 8.3±0.2 in the intervention group and 6.9±0.2 in the control group (mean between-group difference, 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 2.0; P<0.001). At 6 months, the rates of rehospitalization for any cause were 1.18 in the intervention group and 1.28 in the control group (rate ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.19). There were 21 deaths (15 from cardiovascular causes) in the intervention group and 16 deaths (8 from cardiovascular causes) in the control group. The rates of death from any cause were 0.13 and 0.10, respectively (rate ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.61 to 2.27). CONCLUSIONS: In a diverse population of older patients who were hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure, an early, transitional, tailored, progressive rehabilitation intervention that included multiple physical-function domains resulted in greater improvement in physical function than usual care. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; REHAB-HF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02196038.).

Use of win time for ordered composite endpoints in clinical trials.

Consider the choice of outcome for overall treatment benefit in a clinical trial which measures the first time to each of several clinical events. We describe several new variants of the win ratio that incorporate the time spent in each clinical state over the common follow-up, where clinical state means the worst clinical event that has occurred by that time. One version allows restriction so that death during follow-up is most important, while time spent in other clinical states is still accounted for. Three other variants are described; one is based on the average pairwise win time, one creates a continuous outcome for each participant based on expected win times against a reference distribution and another that uses the estimated distributions of clinical state to compare the treatment arms. Finally, a combination testing approach is described to give robust power for detecting treatment benefit across a broad range of alternatives. These new methods are designed to be closer to the overall treatment benefit/harm from a patient's perspective, compared to the ordinary win ratio. The new methods are compared to the composite event approach and the ordinary win ratio. Simulations show that when overall treatment benefit on death is substantial, the variants based on either the participants' expected win times (EWTs) against a reference distribution or estimated clinical state distributions have substantially higher power than either the pairwise comparison or composite event methods. The methods are illustrated by re-analysis of the trial heart failure: a controlled trial investigating outcomes of exercise training.

Vericiguat in Patients with Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: The effect of vericiguat, a novel oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction who had recently been hospitalized or had received intravenous diuretic therapy is unclear. METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned 5050 patients with chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% to receive vericiguat (target dose, 10 mg once daily) or placebo, in addition to guideline-based medical therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes or first hospitalization for heart failure. RESULTS: Over a median of 10.8 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 897 of 2526 patients (35.5%) in the vericiguat group and in 972 of 2524 patients (38.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.98; P = 0.02). A total of 691 patients (27.4%) in the vericiguat group and 747 patients (29.6%) in the placebo group were hospitalized for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.00). Death from cardiovascular causes occurred in 414 patients (16.4%) in the vericiguat group and in 441 patients (17.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.06). The composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure occurred in 957 patients (37.9%) in the vericiguat group and in 1032 patients (40.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98; P = 0.02). Symptomatic hypotension occurred in 9.1% of the patients in the vericiguat group and in 7.9% of the patients in the placebo group (P = 0.12), and syncope occurred in 4.0% of the patients in the vericiguat group and in 3.5% of the patients in the placebo group (P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with high-risk heart failure, the incidence of death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for heart failure was lower among those who received vericiguat than among those who received placebo. (Funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme [a subsidiary of Merck] and Bayer; VICTORIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02861534.).

Circulating Angiokines Are Associated With Reverse Remodeling and Outcomes in Chronic Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine whether circulating modifiers of endothelial function are associated with cardiac structure and clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS: We measured 25 proteins related to endothelial function in 99 patients from the GUIDE-IT study. Protein levels were evaluated for association with echocardiographic parameters and the incidence of all-cause death and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). RESULTS: Higher concentrations of angiopoietin 2 (ANGPT2), vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 (VEGFR1) and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) were significantly associated with worse function and larger ventricular volumes. Over time, decreases in ANGPT2 and, to a lesser extent, VEGFR1 and HGF, were associated with improvements in cardiac size and function. Individuals with higher concentrations of ANGPT2, VEGFR1 or HGF had increased risks for a composite of death and HHF in the following year (HR 2.76 (95% CI 1.73-4.40) per 2-fold change in ANGPT2; HR 1.76 (95% CI 1.11-2.79) for VEGFR1; and HR 4.04 (95% CI 2.19-7.44) for HGF). CONCLUSIONS: Proteins related to endothelial function associate with cardiac size, cardiac function and clinical outcomes in patients with HFrEF. These results support the concept that endothelial function may be an important contributor to the progression to and the recovery from HFrEF.

Assessment of Biomarkers of Myocardial injury, Inflammation, and Renal Function in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Biomarker Substudy.

BACKGROUND: Circulating biomarkers may be useful in understanding prognosis and treatment efficacy in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial, vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, decreased the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. We evaluated biomarkers of cardiac injury, inflammation, and renal function for associations with outcomes and vericiguat treatment effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cystatin C were measured at baseline and 16 weeks. Associations of biomarkers with the primary outcome and its components were estimated. Interaction with study treatment was tested. Changes in biomarkers over time were examined by study treatment. One or more biomarkers were measured in 4652 (92%) of 5050 participants at baseline and 4063 (81%) at 16 weeks. After adjustment, higher values of hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 were associated with the primary outcome, independent of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Higher hs-cTnT values were associated with a hazard ratio per log standard deviation of 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.14-1.27). A treatment interaction with vericiguat was evident with hs-cTnT and cardiovascular death (P = .04), but not HF hospitalization (P = .38). All biomarkers except cystatin C decreased over 16 weeks and no relationship between treatment assignment and changes in biomarker levels was observed. CONCLUSIONS: hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 levels were associated with risk of the primary outcome in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction). Uniquely, lower hs-cTnT was associated with a lower rate of cardiovascular death but not HF hospitalization after treatment with vericiguat.

Classification of Heart Failure Events by Severity: Insights From the VICTORIA Trial.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization due to heart failure (HFH) is a major source of morbidity, consumes significant economic resources and is a key endpoint in HF clinical trials. HFH events vary in severity and implications, but they are typically considered equivalent when analyzing clinical trial outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the frequency and severity of HF events, assess treatment effects and describe differences in outcomes by type of HF event in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction). METHODS: VICTORIA compared vericiguat with placebo in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (< 45%) and a recent worsening HF event. All HFHs were prospectively adjudicated by an independent clinical events committee (CEC) whose members were blinded to treatment assignment. We evaluated the frequency and clinical impact of HF events by severity, categorized by highest intensity of HF treatment (urgent outpatient visit or hospitalization treated with oral diuretics, intravenous diuretics, intravenous vasodilators, intravenous inotropes, or mechanical support) and treatment effect by event categories. RESULTS: In VICTORIA, 2948 HF events occurred in 5050 enrolled patients. Overall total CEC HF events for vericiguat vs placebo were 43.9 vs 49.1 events/100 patient-years (P = 0.01). Hospitalization for intravenous diuretics was the most common type of HFH event (54%). HF event types differed markedly in their clinical implications for both in-hospital and post-discharge events. We observed no difference in the distribution of HF events between randomized treatment groups (P = 0.78). CONCLUSION: HF events in large global trials vary significantly in severity and clinical implications, which may have implications for more nuanced trial design and interpretation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02861534).

Design and Rationale for the Direct Oral Anticoagulant Apixaban in Left Ventricular Assist Devices (DOAC LVAD) Study.

Implantable left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy is used to improve quality of life, alleviate symptoms and extend survival rates in patients with advanced heart failure. Patients with LVADs require chronic anticoagulation to reduce the risk of thromboembolic complications, and they commonly experience bleeding events. Apixaban is a direct oral anticoagulant that has become first-line therapy for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism; however, its safety in patients with LVADs has not been well characterized. The evaluation of the hemocompatibility in the DOAC LVAD (Direct Oral Anti-Coagulant apixaban in Left Ventricular Assist Devices) trial is a phase 2, open-label trial of patients with LVADs who were randomized to either apixaban or warfarin therapy. Patients randomized to apixaban will be started on a dosage of 5 mg twice daily, whereas those randomized to warfarin will be managed at an International Normalized Ratio goal of 2.0-2.5. All patients will be treated with aspirin at 81 mg daily. We plan to randomize and follow as many as 40 patients for 24 weeks to evaluate the primary outcomes of freedom from death or hemocompatibility-related adverse events (stroke, device thrombosis, bleeding, aortic root thrombus, and arterial non-CNS thromboembolism). The DOAC LVAD trial will establish the feasibility of apixaban anticoagulant therapy in patients with LVADs. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04865978.

Hemoglobin and Clinical Outcomes in the Vericiguat Global Study in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA).

BACKGROUND: In the VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), anemia occurred more often in patients treated with vericiguat (7.6%) than with placebo (5.7%). We explored the association between vericiguat, randomization hemoglobin, development of anemia, and whether the benefit of vericiguat related to baseline hemoglobin. METHODS: Anemia was defined as hemoglobin <13.0 g/dL in men and <12.0 g/dL in women (World Health Organization Anemia). Adverse events reported as anemia were also evaluated. We assessed the risk-adjusted relationship between hemoglobin and hematocrit with the primary outcome (composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization) and the time-updated hemoglobin relationship to outcomes. RESULTS: At baseline, 1719 (35.7%) patients had World Health Organization anemia; median hemoglobin was 13.4 g/L (25th, 75th percentile: 12.1, 14.7 g/dL). At 16 weeks from randomization, 1643 patients had World Health Organization anemia (284 new for vericiguat and 219 for placebo), which occurred more often with vericiguat than placebo (P<0.001). After 16 weeks, no further decline in hemoglobin occurred over 96 weeks of follow-up and the ratio of hemoglobin/hematocrit remained constant. Overall, adverse event anemia occurred in 342 patients (7.1%). A lower hemoglobin was unrelated to the treatment benefit of vericiguat (versus placebo) on the primary outcome. In addition, analysis of time-updated hemoglobin revealed no association with the treatment effect of vericiguat (versus placebo) on the primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia was common at randomization and lower hemoglobin was associated with a greater frequency of clinical events. Although vericiguat modestly lowered hemoglobin by 16 weeks, this effect did not further progress nor was it related to the treatment benefit of vericiguat. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov: Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Titration of medical therapy and clinical outcomes among patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: Findings from the HF-ACTION trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines recommend titration of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and beta-blockers among patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) to maximally tolerated doses. Patient characteristics associated with dose titration and clinical outcomes subsequent to dose titration remain poorly characterized. METHODS: Among 1999 ambulatory patients with chronic HFrEF in the HF-ACTION trial, use and dosing of ACEi and evidence-based beta-blockers were examined at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with dose escalation (medication initation or dosing increase) or dose de-escalation (medication discontinuation or dosing decrease). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine associations between dose trajectory group (stable target, stable sub-target, dose escalation, and dose de-escalation) and subsequent mortality and hospitalization outcomes. RESULTS: For both ACEi and beta-blockers, hospitalization for heart failure in the 6 months prior to enrollment (odds ratio [OR] 2.32 [95% confidence interval 1.58-3.42]) for ACEi; 1.42 [1.05-1.9] for beta-blockers) and higher systolic blood pressure (OR 1.01 [1.00-1.03] per 1 mmHg increase for ACEi; 1.01 [1.00-1.02] for beta-blockers) were associated with dose escalation. Hospitalization 6 months prior to enrollment for any cause (including HF or non-HF causes) was associated with dose de-escalation (OR 1.60 [1.14-2.25] for ACEi; 1.67 [1.20-2.33] for beta-blockers). After adjustment for patient characteristics, compared with stable target dosing, dose de-escalation of either medication was associated with greater all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.64 [1.11-2.42] for ACEi; 1.62 [1.04-2.53] for beta-blockers). Compared with stable target dosing, both dose de-escalation (aHR 1.98 [1.36-2.87]) and stable sub-target dosing (aHR 1.49 [1.18-1.87]) of beta-blockers were associated with greater cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization for heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Among outpatients with chronic HFrEF, patient characteristics including recent hospitalization status and blood pressure were associated with odds of subsequent escalation and de-escalation of ACEi and beta-blocker therapy. Compared with patients receiving guildeline-recommended target doses, dose de-escalation of either medication and sub-target dosing of beta-blockers were associated with greater morbidity and mortality over long-term follow-up.

Medical Therapy During Hospitalization for Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Registry.

BACKGROUND: For patients hospitalized for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), guidelines recommend optimization of medical therapy prior to discharge. The degree to which changes in medical therapy occur during hospitalizations for HFrEF in North American clinical practice is unclear. METHODS: The VICTORIA registry (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) enrolled patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HFrEF across 51 sites in the United States and Canada from February 2018-January 2019. In patients with complete medication data who were not receiving dialysis, use and dose of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB), angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), beta-blocker, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA), and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) were assessed at admission and discharge. RESULTS: Of 1695 patients, the median (IQR) age was 69 (59-79) years, and 33% were women. Among eligible patients, 33%, 25% and 55% were not prescribed ACEI/ARB/ARNI, beta-blocker, and MRA at discharge, respectively; 99% were not prescribed SGLT2i. For each medication, > 50% of patients remained on stable subtarget doses or no medication during hospitalization. In-hospital rates of initiation/dose increase were 20% for ACEI/ARB, 4% for ARNI, 20% for beta-blocker, 22% for MRA, and < 1% for SGLT2i; corresponding rates of dose decrease/discontinuation were 11%, 2%, 9%, 5%, and < 1%, respectively. Overall, 17% and 28% of eligible patients were prescribed triple therapy prior to admission and at discharge, respectively. At both admission and discharge, 1% of patients were prescribed triple therapy at target doses. Across classes of medication, multiple factors were independently associated with higher likelihood of in-hospital initiation/dosing increase (eg, Canadian enrollment, white race, admission to intensive care units) and discontinuation/dosing decrease (eg, worse renal function, admission to intensive care units). CONCLUSIONS: In this contemporary North American registry of patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HFrEF, for each recommended medical therapy, the large majority of eligible patients remained on stable subtarget doses or without medication at admission and discharge. Although most patients had no alterations in medical therapy, hospitalization in Canada and multiple patient characteristics were associated with higher likelihood of favorable in-hospital medication changes.

Challenges and Potential Improvements to Patient Access to Pharmaceuticals: Examples From Cardiology.

Patient access to a drug after US regulatory approval is controlled by complex interactions between governmental and third-party payers, pharmacy benefit managers, distributers, manufacturers, health systems, and pharmacies that together mediate the receipt of goods by patients after prescription by clinicians. Recent medication approvals highlight why and how the distribution of clinically beneficial novel therapies is controlled. Although imposed limitations on availability may be rational considering the fiduciary responsibilities of payers and escalating spending on health care and pharmaceuticals, transparency and communication are lacking, and some utilization management may disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. Analysis of the current health insurance landscape suggests mechanisms by which patient access to appropriate medications can be improved and patient and clinician frustration reduced while acknowledging the financial realities of the pharmaceutical marketplace. We propose creation of a shared, standardized, and transparent process for coverage decisions that minimizes administrative barriers and is defensible on the basis of clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence. These reforms would benefit patients and improve the efficiency of the pharmaceutical system.

Early diuretic strategies and the association with In-hospital and Post-discharge outcomes in acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Decongestion is a primary goal during hospitalizations for decompensated heart failure (HF). However, data surrounding the preferred route and strategy of diuretic administration are limited with varying results in prior studies. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis using patients from ASCEND-HF with a stable diuretic strategy in the first 24 hours following randomization. Patients were divided into three groups: intravenous (IV) continuous, IV bolus and oral strategy. Baseline characteristics, in-hospital outcomes, 30-day composite cardiovascular mortality or HF rehospitalization and 180-day all-cause mortality were compared across groups. Inverse propensity weighted modeling was used for adjustment. RESULTS: Among 5,738 patients with a stable diuretic regimen in the first 24 hours (80% of overall ASCEND trial), 3,944 (68.7%) patients received IV intermittent bolus administration of diuretics, 799 (13.9%) patients received IV continuous therapy and 995 (17.3%) patients with oral administration. Patients in the IV continuous group had a higher baseline creatinine (IV continuous 1.4 [1.1-1.7]; intermittent bolus 1.2 [1.0-1.6]; oral 1.2 [1.0-1.4] mg/dL; P <0.001) and high NTproBNP (IV continuous 5,216 [2,599-11,603]; intermittent bolus 4,944 [2,339-9,970]; oral 3,344 [1,570-7,077] pg/mL; P <0.001). There was no difference between IV continuous and intermittent bolus group in weight change, total urine output and change in renal function till 10 days/discharge (adjusted P >0.05 for all). There was no difference in 30 day mortality and HF readmission (adjusted OR 1.08 [95%CI: 0.74, 1.57]; P = 0.701) and 180 days mortality (adjusted OR 1.04 [95%CI: 0.75, 1.43]; P = 0.832). CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of patients with decompensated HF, there were no significant differences in diuretic-related in-hospital, or post-discharge outcomes between IV continuous and intermittent bolus administration. Tailoring appropriate diuretic strategy to different states of acute HF and congestion phenotypes needs to be further investigated.

Beta-blocker and ACE-inhibitor dosing as a function of body surface area: From the HF-ACTION trial.

Recognizing that body surface area (BSA) is a commonly used metric to inform medication dosing across fields of medicine, it is possible that patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with higher BSA may be more likely to tolerate higher doses of GDMT. Using the HF-ACTION trial, we examined (1) the relationship between BSA and achievement of target dosing of evidence-based beta-blocker and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) therapy, and (2) the associations and interactions between target dosing, clinical outcomes, and BSA.

Does study subject diversity influence cardiology research site performance?: Insights from 2 U.S. National Coronary Stent Registries.

BACKGROUND: Minorities and women are underrepresented in cardiovascular research. Whether their higher enrollment can be predicted or influences research site performance is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated 104 sites that enrolled 4,184 patients in the U.S. Platinum Diversity (PD) and Promus Element Plus (PE Plus) studies (2012 to 2016). Research sites were ranked from lowest to highest minority and female enrollment, respectively. United States Census Bureau division and core-based statistical area (CBSA) populations were determined for each site and the following study performance metrics compared across quartiles of minority and female enrollment, respectively: (1) study subject enrollment rate (SER), (2) time to first patient enrolled, (3) rate of follow-up visits not done, (4) rate of follow-up visits out of window, and (5) protocol deviation rate (PDR). Multivariable regression was used to predict SER and PDR. RESULTS: Minority enrollment varied by region (P = .025) and population (P = .024) with highest recruitment noted in the Pacific, West South Central, South Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic and East North Central divisions. Female enrollment bore no relationship to region (P = .67) or population (P = .40). Median SER was similar in sites withi the highest vs lowest quartile of minority enrollment (SER of 4 vs 5 patients per month, respectively, P =0.78) and highest vs. lowest female enrollment (SER of 4 vs 4, respectively, P = .21). Median PDR was lower in sites within the highest vs lowest minority enrollment (0.23 vs 0.50 PDs per patient per month, respectively, P = .01) and highest vs. lowest female enrollment (0.28 vs. 0.37 PDs per patient per month, respectively, P = .04). However, this relationship did not persist after multivariable adjustment. All other site performance metrics were comparable across quartiles of minority and female enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: Minority, but not female enrollment, correlated with research site geographic region and surrounding population. High enrollment of minorities and women did not influence study performance metrics. These findings help inform future strategies aimed at increasing clinical trial diversity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The PD and PE Plus studies are registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov under identifiers NCT02240810 and NCT01589978, respectively. KEY POINTS: Question: Does the enrollment of more Blacks, Hispanics and women in US cardiovascular research studies influence the overall rate of study subject enrollment and/or other key study site performance metrics and can diverse enrollment be predicted? FINDINGS: In this pooled analysis of 104 sites that enrolled 4,184 patients in the Platinum Diversity and Promus Element Plus Post-Approval Studies, we found that the enrollment of higher proportions of underrepresented minorities and women was univariately associated with lower protocol deviation rates while having no effect on other site performance metrics. A site's geographic location and surrounding population predicted minority, but not female enrollment. Meaning: These findings suggest that cardiovascular research subject diversity may be predicted from site characteristics and enhanced without compromising key study performance metrics. These insights help inform future strategies aimed at improving clinical trial diversity.

The Additive Prognostic Value of Serial Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels over Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations are frequently observed in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the predictive value of serial IL-6 measurements beyond brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) remains poorly characterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a retrospective analysis of the PROTECT cohort (2033 patients with AHF). Plasma IL-6 and BNP levels were determined on days 1, 2, 7 and 14 after admission for AHF in 1591 (78.3%), 1462 (71.9%), 1445 (71.1%) and 1451 (71.4%) patients, respectively. The primary endpoint was 180-day all-cause mortality. The median day-1 IL-6 concentration was 11.1 pg/mL (IQR: 6.6, 20.9) and decreased to 10.1 pg/mL (IQR: 5.6-18.5) at day-7. Higher cross-sectional IL-6 concentrations at all time-points predicted the primary endpoint, independent of a risk model for this cohort and changes in BNP. Each doubling of IL-6 between day-1 and day-7 predicted the primary endpoint independent of baseline IL-6 concentrations, the risk model, baseline BNP and changes in BNP [HR (95% CI): 1.18 (1.07-1.30), p=0.0013]. Collectively, 214 (17%) patients experienced at least a doubling of their IL-6 concentrations between day-1 and day-7. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the temporal evolution patterns of IL-6 in patients with AHF have additive prognostic value independent of changes in BNP.

Plasma Volume Status and Its Association With In-Hospital and Postdischarge Outcomes in Decompensated Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Prior analyses suggest an association between formula-based plasma volume (PV) estimates and outcomes in heart failure (HF). We assessed the association between estimated PV status by the Duarte-ePV and Kaplan Hakim (KH-ePVS) formulas, and in-hospital and postdischarge clinical outcomes, in the ASCEND-HF trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: The KH-ePVS and Duarte-ePV were calculated on admission. We assessed associations with in-hospital worsening HF, 30-day composite cardiovascular mortality or HF rehospitalization and 180-day all-cause mortality. There were 6373 (89.2%), and 6354 (89.0%) patients who had necessary characteristics to calculate KH-ePVS and Duarte-ePV, respectively. There was no association between PV by either formula with in-hospital worsening HF. KH-ePVS showed a weak correlation with N-terminal prohormone BNP, and with measures of decongestion such as body weight change and urine output (r < 0.3 for all). Duarte-ePV was trending toward an association with worse 30-day (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.15, P = .058), but not 180-day outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.09, P = .289). A continuous KH-ePVS of >0 (per 10-unit increase) was associated with improved 30-day outcomes (adjusted odds ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.62-0.91, P = .004). The continuous KH-ePVS was not associated with 180-day outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.98-1.12, P = .139). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline PV estimates had a weak association with in-hospital measures of decongestion. The Duarte-ePV trended toward an association with early clinical outcomes in decompensated HF, and may improve risk stratification in HF.

The Impact of Depression on Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction Treated in the GUIDE-IT Trial.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear why depression is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). We examine the relationship between depression and clinical outcomes among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction managed with guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the GUIDE-IT trial, 894 patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction were stratified according to a history of depression, and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to examine the association with outcomes. There were 140 patients (16%) in the overall cohort who had depression. They tended to be female (29% vs 46%, P < .001) and White (67% vs 53%, P = .002). There were no differences in GDMT rates at baseline or at 90 days; nor were there differences in target doses of these therapies achieved at 90 days (NS, all). amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels at all time points were similar between the cohorts (P > .05, all). After adjustment, depression was associated with all-cause hospitalizations (hazard ratio, 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.81, P < .01), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.07-2.68, P = .025), and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.54, 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.32, P = .039). CONCLUSIONS: Depression impacts clinical outcomes in HF regardless of GDMT intensity and amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels. This finding underscores the need for a focus on mental health in parallel to achievement of optimal GDMT in these patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01685840, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01685840.

Clinical Outcome Predictions for the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial: VICTORIA Outcomes Model.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VICTORIA trial included high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had an unusually high event rate despite usage of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group. METHODS: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association class [NYHA] II-IV) and ejection fraction <45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical endpoints, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, non-linearities, and interactions with treatment. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 (38.5%) patients. Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary endpoint included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse NYHA class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data-including novel measures-performed well in high-risk HF patients who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians better understand patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on risk factors for clinical events from a recent large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.

Clinical Outcome Predictions for the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial.

BACKGROUND: The prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction included high-risk patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had a high event rate despite the use of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class II-IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical end points, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, and nonlinearities. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. Over a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 patients (38.5%). Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary end point included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse New York Heart Association functional class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data-including novel measures-performed well in high-risk patients with HF who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534.Lay Summary: Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians to better understand a patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after the worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on the risk factors for clinical events from a recent, large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.