Genetic insights into biological mechanisms governing human ovarian ageing.

Reproductive longevity is essential for fertility and influences healthy ageing in women1,2, but insights into its underlying biological mechanisms and treatments to preserve it are limited. Here we identify 290 genetic determinants of ovarian ageing, assessed using normal variation in age at natural menopause (ANM) in about 200,000 women of European ancestry. These common alleles were associated with clinical extremes of ANM; women in the top 1% of genetic susceptibility have an equivalent risk of premature ovarian insufficiency to those carrying monogenic FMR1 premutations3. The identified loci implicate a broad range of DNA damage response (DDR) processes and include loss-of-function variants in key DDR-associated genes. Integration with experimental models demonstrates that these DDR processes act across the life-course to shape the ovarian reserve and its rate of depletion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that experimental manipulation of DDR pathways highlighted by human genetics increases fertility and extends reproductive life in mice. Causal inference analyses using the identified genetic variants indicate that extending reproductive life in women improves bone health and reduces risk of type 2 diabetes, but increases the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms that govern ovarian ageing, when they act, and how they might be targeted by therapeutic approaches to extend fertility and prevent disease.

Atherosclerotic Plaque Epigenetic Age Acceleration Predicts a Poor Prognosis and Is Associated With Endothelial-to-Mesenchymal Transition in Humans.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic age estimators (clocks) are predictive of human mortality risk. However, it is not yet known whether the epigenetic age of atherosclerotic plaques is predictive for the risk of cardiovascular events. METHODS: Whole-genome DNA methylation of human carotid atherosclerotic plaques (n=485) and of blood (n=93) from the Athero-Express endarterectomy cohort was used to calculate epigenetic age acceleration (EAA). EAA was linked to clinical characteristics, plaque histology, and future cardiovascular events (n=136). We studied whole-genome DNA methylation and bulk and single-cell transcriptomics to uncover molecular mechanisms of plaque EAA. We experimentally confirmed our in silico findings using in vitro experiments in primary human coronary endothelial cells. RESULTS: Male and female patients with severe atherosclerosis had a median chronological age of 69 years. The median epigenetic age was 65 years in females (median EAA, -2.2 [interquartile range, -4.3 to 2.2] years) and 68 years in males (median EAA, -0.3 [interquartile range, -2.9 to 3.8] years). Patients with diabetes and a high body mass index had higher plaque EAA. Increased EAA of plaque predicted future events in a 3-year follow-up in a Cox regression model (univariate hazard ratio, 1.7; P=0.0034) and adjusted multivariate model (hazard ratio, 1.56; P=0.02). Plaque EAA predicted outcome independent of blood EAA (hazard ratio, 1.3; P=0.018) and of plaque hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 1.7; P=0.02). Single-cell RNA sequencing in plaque samples from 46 patients in the same cohort revealed smooth muscle and endothelial cells as important cell types in plaque EAA. Endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition was associated with EAA, which was experimentally confirmed by TGFß-triggered endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition inducing rapid epigenetic aging in coronary endothelial cells. CONCLUSIONS: Plaque EAA is a strong and independent marker of poor outcome in patients with severe atherosclerosis. Plaque EAA was linked to mesenchymal endothelial and smooth muscle cells. Endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition was associated with EAA, which was experimentally validated. Epigenetic aging mechanisms may provide new targets for treatments that reduce atherosclerosis complications.

The Diagnostic Value of ECG Characteristics for Vasospastic and Microvascular Angina: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Coronary vascular dysfunction comprises VSA and/or MVA and is more common in women than in men with angina without obstructive coronary artery disease (ANOCA). Invasive coronary function testing is considered the reference test for diagnosis, but its burden on patients is large. We aimed to investigate the potential of electrocardiography (ECG) as noninvasive marker for vasospastic angina (VSA) and microvascular angina (MVA) diagnosis. METHODS: We systematically screened Pubmed and EMBASE databases for studies reporting on ECG characteristics in ANOCA patients with (a suspicion of) coronary vascular dysfunction. We assessed study quality using QUADAS-2. We extracted data on diagnostic values of different ECG characteristics and analyzed whether the studies were sex-stratified. RESULTS: Thirty publications met our criteria, 13 reported on VSA and 17 on MVA. The majority addressed repolarization-related ECG parameters. Only 1 of the 13 VSA papers and 4 of the 17 MVA papers showed diagnostic accuracy measures of the ECG characteristics. The presence of early repolarization, T-wave alternans, and inverted U waves showed of predictive value for VSA diagnosis. The QTc interval was predictive for MVA diagnosis in all six studies reporting on QTc interval. Sex-stratified results were reported in only 5 of the 30 studies and 3 of those observed sex-based differences. CONCLUSIONS: ECG features are not widely evaluated in diagnostic studies for VSA and MVA. Those features predictive for VSA and MVA diagnosis mostly point to repolarization abnormalities and may contribute to noninvasive risk stratification.

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and cardiovascular disease risk: A Mendelian Randomisation study.

Objective: Observational studies show that hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs) are related to unfavourable maternal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles later in life. We investigated whether genetic liability to pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and gestational hypertension is associated with CVD risk factors and occurrence of CVD events. Methods: We obtained genetic associations with HDPs from a genome-wide association study and used individual-participant-data from the UK Biobank to obtain genetic associations with CVD risk factors and CVD events (defined as myocardial infarction or stroke). In our primary analysis, we applied Mendelian Randomisation using inverse-variance weighted regression analysis in ever pregnant women. In sensitivity analyses, we studied men and nulligravidae to investigate genetic liability to HDPs and CVD risk without the ability to experience the underlying phenotype. Results: Our primary analysis included 221,155 ever pregnant women (mean age 56.8 [SD 7.9]) with available genetic data. Odds ratios for CVD were 1.20 (1.02-1.41) and 1.24 (1.12-1.38) per unit increase in the log odds of genetic liability to pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and gestational hypertension, respectively. Furthermore, genetic liability to HDPs was associated with higher levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and younger age at hypertension diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses revealed no statistically significant differences when comparing the findings to those of nulligravidae and men. Conclusions: Genetic liability to HDPs is associated with higher CVD risk, lower blood pressure levels, and earlier hypertension diagnosis. Our study suggests similar findings in ever pregnant women, nulligravidae and men, implying biological mechanisms relating to HDPs are causally related to CVD risk.

Depression, anxiety, and the risk of cancer: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety have long been hypothesized to be related to an increased cancer risk. Despite the great amount of research that has been conducted, findings are inconclusive. To provide a stronger basis for addressing the associations between depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, alcohol-related, and smoking-related cancers), individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses were performed within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence (PSY-CA) consortium. METHODS: The PSY-CA consortium includes data from 18 cohorts with measures of depression or anxiety (up to N = 319,613; cancer incidences, 25,803; person-years of follow-up, 3,254,714). Both symptoms and a diagnosis of depression and anxiety were examined as predictors of future cancer risk. Two-stage IPD meta-analyses were run, first by using Cox regression models in each cohort (stage 1), and then by aggregating the results in random-effects meta-analyses (stage 2). RESULTS: No associations were found between depression or anxiety and overall, breast, prostate, colorectal, and alcohol-related cancers. Depression and anxiety (symptoms and diagnoses) were associated with the incidence of lung cancer and smoking-related cancers (hazard ratios [HRs], 1.06-1.60). However, these associations were substantially attenuated when additionally adjusting for known risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and body mass index (HRs, 1.04-1.23). CONCLUSIONS: Depression and anxiety are not related to increased risk for most cancer outcomes, except for lung and smoking-related cancers. This study shows that key covariates are likely to explain the relationship between depression, anxiety, and lung and smoking-related cancers. PREREGISTRATION NUMBER: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=157677.

Causal relationship between polycystic ovary syndrome and coronary artery disease: A Mendelian randomisation study.

OBJECTIVE: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) has been associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it remains uncertain whether this increased risk is the result of PCOS per se or, alternatively, is explained by obesity, a common feature of PCOS. The aim of this study was to assess the causal association between PCOS and CAD and the role of obesity herein. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses in large-scale, female-specific datasets to study the association between genetically predicted (1) risk of PCOS and risk of CAD, (2) body mass index (BMI) and risk of PCOS and (3) BMI and risk of CAD. Primary analyses were conducted with the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. Simple median, penalized weighted median and contamination mixture analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the outcomes. RESULTS: IVW analyses did not show a statistically significant association between PCOS and CAD (odds ratio [OR]: 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89, 1.11). In contrast, genetically predicted BMI was statistically significantly associated with an increased odds of PCOS (OR: 3.21, 95% CI: 2.26, 4.56) and CAD (OR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.67). Similar results were obtained when secondary analyses were performed. CONCLUSION: These sex-specific analyses show that the genetically predicted risk of PCOS is not associated with the risk of CAD. Instead, the genetically predicted risk of obesity (and its downstream metabolic effects) is the common denominator of both PCOS and CAD risk.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis identifies three novel loci for circulating anti-Müllerian hormone levels in women.

STUDY QUESTION: Can additional genetic variants for circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels be identified through a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis including a large sample of premenopausal women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified four loci associated with AMH levels at P < 5 × 10-8: the previously reported MCM8 locus and three novel signals in or near AMH, TEX41 and CDCA7. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: AMH is expressed by antral stage ovarian follicles in women, and variation in age-specific circulating AMH levels has been associated with disease outcomes. However, the physiological mechanisms underlying these AMH-disease associations are largely unknown. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed a GWAS meta-analysis in which we combined summary statistics of a previous AMH GWAS with GWAS data from 3705 additional women from three different cohorts. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: In total, we included data from 7049 premenopausal female participants of European ancestry. The median age of study participants ranged from 15.3 to 48 years across cohorts. Circulating AMH levels were measured in either serum or plasma samples using different ELISA assays. Study-specific analyses were adjusted for age at blood collection and population stratification, and summary statistics were meta-analysed using a standard error-weighted approach. Subsequently, we functionally annotated GWAS variants that reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). We also performed a gene-based GWAS, pathway analysis and linkage disequilibrium score regression and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We identified four loci associated with AMH levels at P < 5 × 10-8: the previously reported MCM8 locus and three novel signals in or near AMH, TEX41 and CDCA7. The strongest signal was a missense variant in the AMH gene (rs10417628). Most prioritized genes at the other three identified loci were involved in cell cycle regulation. Genetic correlation analyses indicated a strong positive correlation among single nucleotide polymorphisms for AMH levels and for age at menopause (rg = 0.82, FDR = 0.003). Exploratory two-sample MR analyses did not support causal effects of AMH on breast cancer or polycystic ovary syndrome risk, but should be interpreted with caution as they may be underpowered and the validity of genetic instruments could not be extensively explored. LARGE SCALE DATA: The full AMH GWAS summary statistics will made available after publication through the GWAS catalog (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Whilst this study doubled the sample size of the most recent GWAS, the statistical power is still relatively low. As a result, we may still lack power to identify more genetic variants for AMH and to determine causal effects of AMH on, for example, breast cancer. Also, follow-up studies are needed to investigate whether the signal for the AMH gene is caused by reduced AMH detection by certain assays instead of actual lower circulating AMH levels. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Genes mapped to the MCM8, TEX41 and CDCA7 loci are involved in the cell cycle and processes such as DNA replication and apoptosis. The mechanism underlying their associations with AMH may affect the size of the ovarian follicle pool. Altogether, our results provide more insight into the biology of AMH and, accordingly, the biological processes involved in ovarian ageing. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II were supported by research grants from the National Institutes of Health (CA172726, CA186107, CA50385, CA87969, CA49449, CA67262, CA178949). The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (217065/Z/19/Z) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC. This publication is the work of the listed authors, who will serve as guarantors for the contents of this article. A comprehensive list of grants funding is available on the ALSPAC website (http://www.bristol.ac.uk/alspac/external/documents/grant-acknowledgements.pdf). Funding for the collection of genotype and phenotype data used here was provided by the British Heart Foundation (SP/07/008/24066), Wellcome (WT092830M and WT08806) and UK Medical Research Council (G1001357). M.C.B., A.L.G.S. and D.A.L. work in a unit that is funded by the University of Bristol and UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/6). M.C.B.'s contribution to this work was funded by a UK Medical Research Council Skills Development Fellowship (MR/P014054/1) and D.A.L. is a National Institute of Health Research Senior Investigator (NF-0616-10102). A.L.G.S. was supported by the study of Dynamic longitudinal exposome trajectories in cardiovascular and metabolic non-communicable diseases (H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD, project ID 874739). The Doetinchem Cohort Study was financially supported by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports of the Netherlands. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Ansh Labs performed the AMH measurements for the Doetinchem Cohort Study free of charge. Ansh Labs was not involved in the data analysis, interpretation or reporting, nor was it financially involved in any aspect of the study. R.M.G.V. was funded by the Honours Track of MSc Epidemiology, University Medical Center Utrecht with a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) (022.005.021). The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) has grant support from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), DHHS, through the National Institute on Aging (NIA), the National Institute of Nursing Research (NINR) and the NIH Office of Research on Women's Health (ORWH) (U01NR004061; U01AG012505, U01AG012535, U01AG012531, U01AG012539, U01AG012546, U01AG012553, U01AG012554, U01AG012495). The SWAN Genomic Analyses and SWAN Legacy have grant support from the NIA (U01AG017719). The Generations Study was funded by Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR). The ICR acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The content of this manuscript is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent official views of the funders. The Sister Study was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 to D.P.S.); the AMH assays were supported by the Avon Foundation (02-2012-065 to H.B. Nichols and D.P.S.). The breast cancer genome-wide association analyses were supported by the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the 'Ministère de l'Économie, de la Science et de l'Innovation du Québec' through Genome Québec and grant PSR-SIIRI-701, The National Institutes of Health (U19 CA148065, X01HG007492), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563, C1287/A10710) and The European Union (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175 and H2020 633784 and 634935). All studies and funders are listed in Michailidou et al. (Nature, 2017). F.J.M.B. has received fees and grant support from Merck Serono and Ferring BV. D.A.L. has received financial support from several national and international government and charitable funders as well as from Medtronic Ltd and Roche Diagnostics for research that is unrelated to this study. N.S. is scientific consultant for Ansh Laboratories. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Sex Differences in the Relationship between New York Heart Association Functional Classification and Survival in Cardiovascular Disease Patients: A Mediation Analysis of Exercise Capacity with Regular Care Data.

Background: The New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class has extensively been used for risk stratification in patients suspected of heart failure, although its prognostic value differs between sexes and disease entities. Functional exercise capacity might explain the association between NYHA functional class and survival, and can serve as an objective proxy for the subjective nature of the NYHA classification. Therefore, we assessed whether sex-differences in exercise capacity explain the association between NYHA functional class and survival in patients suspected of cardiovascular disease. Methods: Electronic health record data from 7259 patients with cardiovascular symptoms, a documented NYHA functional class and cardiac stress electrocardiogram (ECG), was analysed. Follow-up for all-cause mortality was obtained through linkage with Statistics Netherlands. A sex-stratified mediation analysis was performed to assess to what extent the proportional heart rate and -workload during ECG stress testing explain the association between NYHA functional class and survival. Results: In men, increments in NYHA functional class were related to higher all-cause mortality in a dose-response manner (NYHA II vs III/IV: hazard ratio [HR] 1.59 vs 3.64, referenced to NYHA I), whilst in women those classified as NYHA functional class II and III/IV had a similar higher mortality risk (HR 1.49 vs 1.41). Sex-stratified mediation analysis showed that the association between NYHA and survival was mostly explained by proportional workload during stress ECG (men vs women: 22.9%, 95% CI: 18.9%-27.3% vs 40.3%, 95% CI: 28.5%-68.6%) and less so by proportional heart rate (men vs women: 2.5%, 95% CI: 1.3%-4.3% vs 8.0%, 95% CI: 4.1%-18.1%). Post-hoc analysis showed that NYHA classification explained a minor proportion of the association between proportional workload and all-cause mortality (men vs women: 15.1%, 95% CI: 12.0%-18.3% vs 4.4%, 95% CI: 1.5%-7.4%). Conclusions: This study showed a significant mediation in both sexes on the association between NYHA functional class and all-cause mortality by proportional workload, but the effect explained by NYHA classification on the association between survival and proportional workload is small. This implies that NYHA classification is not a sole representation of a patient's functional capacity, but might also incude other aspects of the patient's overall health status.

Anti-Müllerian Hormone and Cardiometabolic Disease in Women: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.

Background: Higher age-specific circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels have been linked to a lower risk of cardiometabolic outcomes. However, whether AMH has a casual role in the etiology of these diseases is unknown. The objective of this study was therefore to explore if circulating AMH levels have a causal effect on risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in women, using a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Methods: We used four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the most recent AMH GWAS meta-analysis as instrumental variables. Summary-level data for CAD (n = 149,752; 11,802 cases), ischemic stroke (n = 17,541; 4678 cases) and T2D (n = 464,389; 30,052 cases) were extracted from the UK Biobank, the Stroke Genetics Network, and DIAMANTE consortia, respectively. To assess the presence of potential pleiotropy we tested the association of the four AMH SNPs, both individually and combined in a weighted genetic risk score, with a range of cardiovascular risk factors and intermediate traits using UK Biobank data. Results: MR estimates, i.e., inverse variance-weighted odds ratios ( OR IVW ), did not support a causal effect of circulating AMH levels on CAD ( OR IVW = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.95-1.35), ischemic stroke ( OR IVW = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.83-1.49), and T2D ( OR IVW = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.10). After adjustment for multiple testing, we observed associations between genetically predicted AMH and age at menopause, and age at menarche, but not with intermediate traits on the causal pathway between AMH and cardiometabolic health, such as atherosclerosis or glucose levels. Conclusions: This study does not provide evidence for a causal effect of circulating AMH levels on CAD, ischemic stroke and T2D in women, although weak instrument bias cannot be excluded.

Alcohol consumption in relation to cardiovascular diseases and mortality: a systematic review of Mendelian randomization studies.

The causal effects of alcohol-in-moderation on cardiometabolic health are continuously debated. Mendelian randomization (MR) is an established method to address causal questions in observational studies. We performed a systematic review of the current evidence from MR studies on the association between alcohol consumption and cardiometabolic diseases, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular risk factors. We performed a systematic search of the literature, including search terms on type of design and exposure. We assessed methodological quality based on key elements of the MR design: use of a full instrumental variable analysis and validation of the three key MR assumptions. We additionally looked at exploration of non-linearity. We reported the direction of the studied associations. Our search yielded 24 studies that were eligible for inclusion. A full instrumental variable analysis was performed in 17 studies (71%) and 13 out of 24 studies (54%) validated all three key assumptions. Five studies (21%) assessed potential non-linearity. In general, null associations were reported for genetically predicted alcohol consumption with the primary outcomes cardiovascular disease (67%) and diabetes (75%), while the only study on all-cause mortality reported a detrimental association. Considering the heterogeneity in methodological quality of the included MR studies, it is not yet possible to draw conclusions on the causal role of moderate alcohol consumption on cardiometabolic health. As MR is a rapidly evolving field, we expect that future MR studies, especially with recent developments regarding instrument selection and non-linearity methodology, will further substantiate this discussion.

Psychosocial functioning in adolescents growing up with chronic disease: The Dutch HBSC study.

Many adolescents worldwide (indirectly) grow up with a chronic disease, which may impact their functioning and wellbeing. The objective of this study is to assess whether adolescents with a (family member with a) chronic disease differ from their healthy counterparts in terms of psychosocial functioning. Data from the Dutch 2013 HBSC-survey were used, including 7168 adolescents (Meanage = 13.7, SD = 1.57, 50.5% female). Participants indicated whether they or one of their family members had a long-term (> 3 months) disease or disability (mental/physical) and were categorized into four groups based on disease presence (none, other, self, both). Psychosocial functioning was assessed in terms of life satisfaction, self-rated health, psychosomatic health, mental health problems, support, substance use, physical exercise, screen time, and school liking. Chronically diseased adolescents (n = 162) reported lower life satisfaction, self-rated and psychosomatic health, more mental health problems, lower peer support, more substance use, and less physical exercise compared to healthy peers. Chronically diseased adolescents who also had a family member with a chronic disease (n = 74) showed comparable outcomes on these life domains, although they did not differ from their healthy peers regarding peer support, substance use, and physical activity. Healthy adolescents with a chronically diseased family member (n = 737) reported significantly lower life satisfaction, self-rated and psychosomatic health, more mental health problems, and less family support compared to healthy peers who grew up in healthy families; however, they reported more positive outcomes than adolescents who had a chronic disease themselves.Conclusion: Having a (family member with a) chronic disease is associated with impaired psychosocial functioning on various life domains. Our findings aid in understanding the psychosocial associates of chronic disease and imply that caregivers should be observant of psychosocial problems among vulnerable adolescents to provide appropriate guidance. What is Known: • Adolescents who grow up with a (family member with a) chronic disease encounter numerous challenges that may be related to poorer developmental outcomes on the long term. What is New: • This study adds a comprehensive overview of the psychosocial functioning of adolescents with a (family member with a) chronic disease, as compared to healthy counterparts that grow up in a healthy family.

Anti-Müllerian hormone levels and risk of type 2 diabetes in women.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Given its role in ovarian follicle development, circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is considered to be a marker of reproductive ageing. Although accelerated reproductive ageing has been associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, research on the relationship between AMH and type 2 diabetes risk is scarce. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether age-specific AMH levels and age-related AMH trajectories are associated with type 2 diabetes risk in women. METHODS: We measured AMH in repeated plasma samples from 3293 female participants (12,460 samples in total), aged 20-59 years at recruitment, from the Doetinchem Cohort Study, a longitudinal study with follow-up visits every 5 years. We calculated age-specific AMH tertiles at baseline to account for the strong AMH-age correlation. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used to assess the association between baseline age-specific AMH tertiles and incident type 2 diabetes. We applied linear mixed models to compare age-related AMH trajectories for women who developed type 2 diabetes with trajectories for women who did not develop diabetes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 20 years, 163 women developed type 2 diabetes. Lower baseline age-specific AMH levels were associated with a higher type 2 diabetes risk (HRT2vsT3 1.24 [95% CI 0.81, 1.92]; HRT1vsT3 1.62 [95% CI 1.06, 2.48]; ptrend = 0.02). These findings seem to be supported by predicted AMH trajectories, which suggested that plasma AMH levels were lower at younger ages in women who developed type 2 diabetes compared with women who did not. The trajectories also suggested that AMH levels declined at a slower rate in women who developed type 2 diabetes, although differences in trajectories were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We observed that lower age-specific AMH levels were associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes in women. Longitudinal analyses did not show clear evidence of differing AMH trajectories between women who developed type 2 diabetes compared with women who did not, possibly because these analyses were underpowered. Further research is needed to investigate whether AMH is part of the biological mechanism explaining the association between reproductive ageing and type 2 diabetes. Graphical abstract.

Age at Menopause and Risk of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The few epidemiological studies that addressed the association between age at menopause and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke risk in women had conflicting findings. We aimed to investigate whether age at (natural and surgical) menopause is a risk factor for total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke in women. METHODS: We analyzed data from 16 244 postmenopausal women, aged 26 to 70 years at recruitment who were enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands cohort between 1993 and 1997. Participants were followed for the occurrence of stroke until January 1, 2011. At baseline, participants filled in questionnaires about health, reproductive history including age at menopause, diet, and lifestyle. Cox regression was used to investigate the association between age at menopause and stroke. All analyses were adjusted for age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index. RESULTS: Mean age of menopause was 46.4 (7.0) years. A total of 830 strokes (571 ischemic, 162 hemorrhagic, 97 unclassified) were identified. Earlier menopause was associated with an increased risk of total stroke. Compared with women who experienced menopause between 50 and 54 years old, women who underwent menopause before age 40 years had 1.48× higher risk (95% CI, 1.19-1.85) of total stroke. In continuous analyses, we observed a 2% lower total stroke risk for each year menopause was delayed (hazard ratio, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.97-0.99]). The risk between earlier menopause and stroke was confined to ischemic stroke, earlier menopause was not associated with hemorrhagic stroke. The association with age at menopause was stronger for natural menopause (hazard ratio <40 versus 50-54 years, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.12-2.70]) than for surgical menopause (hazard ratio <40 versus 50-54 years, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.84-1.89]). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of total and ischemic stroke decreased with an increase in age at menopause. Whether this should have clinical consequences such as intensified risk factor control should be subject of further studies.

Circulating Levels of Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 and Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Protein 3 Associate With Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Serologic and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Human studies examining associations between circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) and colorectal cancer risk have reported inconsistent results. We conducted complementary serologic and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to determine whether alterations in circulating levels of IGF1 or IGFBP3 are associated with colorectal cancer development. METHODS: Serum levels of IGF1 were measured in blood samples collected from 397,380 participants from the UK Biobank, from 2006 through 2010. Incident cancer cases and cancer cases recorded first in death certificates were identified through linkage to national cancer and death registries. Complete follow-up was available through March 31, 2016. For the MR analyses, we identified genetic variants associated with circulating levels of IGF1 and IGFBP3. The association of these genetic variants with colorectal cancer was examined with 2-sample MR methods using genome-wide association study consortia data (52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 individuals without [controls]) RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 7.1 years, 2665 cases of colorectal cancer were recorded. In a multivariable-adjusted model, circulating level of IGF1 associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation increment of IGF1, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.17). Similar associations were found by sex, follow-up time, and tumor subsite. In the MR analyses, a 1 standard deviation increment in IGF1 level, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12; P = 3.3 × 10-4). Level of IGFBP3, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increment, 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18; P = 4.2 × 10-5). Colorectal cancer risk was associated with only 1 variant in the IGFBP3 gene region (rs11977526), which also associated with anthropometric traits and circulating level of IGF2. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of blood samples from almost 400,000 participants in the UK Biobank, we found an association between circulating level of IGF1 and colorectal cancer. Using genetic data from 52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 controls, a higher level of IGF1, determined by genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to determine how this signaling pathway might contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis.

Routine clinical care data from thirteen cardiac outpatient clinics: design of the Cardiology Centers of the Netherlands (CCN) database.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing availability of clinical data due to the digitalisation of healthcare systems, data often remain inaccessible due to the diversity of data collection systems. In the Netherlands, Cardiology Centers of the Netherlands (CCN) introduced "one-stop shop" diagnostic clinics for patients suspected of cardiac disease by their general practitioner. All CCN clinics use the same data collection system and standardised protocol, creating a large regular care database. This database can be used to describe referral practices, evaluate risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in important patient subgroups, and develop prediction models for use in daily care. CONSTRUCTION AND CONTENT: The current database contains data on all patients who underwent a cardiac workup in one of the 13 CCN clinics between 2007 and February 2018 (n = 109,151, 51.9% women). Data were pseudonymised and contain information on anthropometrics, cardiac symptoms, risk factors, comorbidities, cardiovascular and family history, standard blood laboratory measurements, transthoracic echocardiography, electrocardiography in rest and during exercise, and medication use. Clinical follow-up is based on medical need and consisted of either a repeat visit at CCN (43.8%) or referral for an external procedure in a hospital (16.5%). Passive follow-up via linkage to national mortality registers is available for 95% of the database. UTILITY AND DISCUSSION: The CCN database provides a strong base for research into historically underrepresented patient groups due to the large number of patients and the lack of in- and exclusion criteria. It also enables the development of artificial intelligence-based decision support tools. Its contemporary nature allows for comparison of daily care with the current guidelines and protocols. Missing data is an inherent limitation, as the cardiologist could deviate from standardised protocols when clinically indicated. CONCLUSION: The CCN database offers the opportunity to conduct research in a unique population referred from the general practitioner to the cardiologist for diagnostic workup. This, in combination with its large size, the representation of historically underrepresented patient groups and contemporary nature makes it a valuable tool for expanding our knowledge of cardiovascular diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

Serologic markers of Chlamydia trachomatis and other sexually transmitted infections and subsequent ovarian cancer risk: Results from the EPIC cohort.

A substantial proportion of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) arises in the fallopian tube and other epithelia of the upper genital tract; these epithelia may incur damage and neoplastic transformation after sexually transmitted infections (STI) and pelvic inflammatory disease. We investigated the hypothesis that past STI infection, particularly Chlamydia trachomatis, is associated with higher EOC risk in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort including 791 cases and 1669 matched controls. Serum antibodies against C. trachomatis, Mycoplasma genitalium, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and human papillomavirus (HPV) 16, 18 and 45 were assessed using multiplex fluorescent bead-based serology. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing women with positive vs. negative serology. A total of 40% of the study population was seropositive to at least one STI. Positive serology to C. trachomatis Pgp3 antibodies was not associated with EOC risk overall, but with higher risk of the mucinous histotype (RR = 2.30 [95% CI = 1.22-4.32]). Positive serology for chlamydia heat shock protein 60 (cHSP60-1) was associated with higher risk of EOC overall (1.36 [1.13-1.64]) and with the serous subtype (1.44 [1.12-1.85]). None of the other evaluated STIs were associated with EOC risk overall; however, HSV-2 was associated with higher risk of endometrioid EOC (2.35 [1.24-4.43]). The findings of our study suggest a potential role of C. trachomatis in the carcinogenesis of serous and mucinous EOC, while HSV-2 might promote the development of endometrioid disease.

Ovarian cancer risk factors by tumor aggressiveness: An analysis from the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium.

Ovarian cancer risk factors differ by histotype; however, within subtype, there is substantial variability in outcomes. We hypothesized that risk factor profiles may influence tumor aggressiveness, defined by time between diagnosis and death, independent of histology. Among 1.3 million women from 21 prospective cohorts, 4,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified and classified as highly aggressive (death in <1 year, n = 864), very aggressive (death in 1 to < 3 years, n = 1,390), moderately aggressive (death in 3 to < 5 years, n = 639), and less aggressive (lived 5+ years, n = 1,691). Using competing risks Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed heterogeneity of associations by tumor aggressiveness for all cases and among serous and endometrioid/clear cell tumors. Associations between parity (phet = 0.01), family history of ovarian cancer (phet = 0.02), body mass index (BMI; phet ≤ 0.04) and smoking (phet < 0.01) and ovarian cancer risk differed by aggressiveness. A first/single pregnancy, relative to nulliparity, was inversely associated with highly aggressive disease (HR: 0.72; 95% CI [0.58-0.88]), no association was observed for subsequent pregnancies (per pregnancy, 0.97 [0.92-1.02]). In contrast, first and subsequent pregnancies were similarly associated with less aggressive disease (0.87 for both). Family history of ovarian cancer was only associated with risk of less aggressive disease (1.94 [1.47-2.55]). High BMI (≥35 vs. 20 to < 25 kg/m2 , 1.93 [1.46-2.56] and current smoking (vs. never, 1.30 [1.07-1.57]) were associated with increased risk of highly aggressive disease. Results were similar within histotypes. Ovarian cancer risk factors may be directly associated with subtypes defined by tumor aggressiveness, rather than through differential effects on histology. Studies to assess biological pathways are warranted.

Prospective analysis of circulating metabolites and breast cancer in EPIC.

BACKGROUND: Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool to identify novel etiologic pathways leading to cancer. Using a targeted approach, we prospectively investigated the associations between metabolite concentrations in plasma and breast cancer risk. METHODS: A nested case-control study was established within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort, which included 1624 first primary incident invasive breast cancer cases (with known estrogen and progesterone receptor and HER2 status) and 1624 matched controls. Metabolites (n = 127, acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexose, sphingolipids) were measured by mass spectrometry in pre-diagnostic plasma samples and tested for associations with breast cancer incidence using multivariable conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Among women not using hormones at baseline (n = 2248), and after control for multiple tests, concentrations of arginine (odds ratio [OR] per SD = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70-0.90), asparagine (OR = 0.83 (0.74-0.92)), and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) ae C36:3 (OR = 0.83 (0.76-0.90)), aa C36:3 (OR = 0.84 (0.77-0.93)), ae C34:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.94)), ae C36:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.88)), and ae C38:2 (OR = 0.84 (0.76-0.93)) were inversely associated with breast cancer risk, while the acylcarnitine C2 (OR = 1.23 (1.11-1.35)) was positively associated with disease risk. In the overall population, C2 (OR = 1.15 (1.06-1.24)) and PC ae C36:3 (OR = 0.88 (0.82-0.95)) were associated with risk of breast cancer, and these relationships did not differ by breast cancer subtype, age at diagnosis, fasting status, menopausal status, or adiposity. CONCLUSIONS: These findings point to potentially novel pathways and biomarkers of breast cancer development. Results warrant replication in other epidemiological studies.

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9.

BACKGROUND: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. METHODS: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. RESULTS: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Interplay between genetic predisposition, macronutrient intake and type 2 diabetes incidence: analysis within EPIC-InterAct across eight European countries.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Gene-macronutrient interactions may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes but research evidence to date is inconclusive. We aimed to increase our understanding of the aetiology of type 2 diabetes by investigating potential interactions between genes and macronutrient intake and their association with the incidence of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We investigated the influence of interactions between genetic risk scores (GRSs) for type 2 diabetes, insulin resistance and BMI and macronutrient intake on the development of type 2 diabetes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct, a prospective case-cohort study across eight European countries (N = 21,900 with 9742 incident type 2 diabetes cases). Macronutrient intake was estimated from diets reported in questionnaires, including proportion of energy derived from total carbohydrate, protein, fat, plant and animal protein, saturated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat and dietary fibre. Using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression, we estimated country-specific interaction results on the multiplicative scale, using random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary analysis used isocaloric macronutrient substitution. RESULTS: No interactions were identified between any of the three GRSs and any macronutrient intake, with low-to-moderate heterogeneity between countries (I2 range 0-51.6%). Results were similar using isocaloric macronutrient substitution analyses and when weighted and unweighted GRSs and individual SNPs were examined. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes, insulin resistance and BMI did not modify the association between macronutrient intake and incident type 2 diabetes. This suggests that macronutrient intake recommendations to prevent type 2 diabetes do not need to account for differences in genetic predisposition to these three metabolic conditions.