Heat wave-related mortality in Sweden: A case-crossover study investigating effect modification by neighbourhood deprivation.

Aims: The present study aimed to investigate if set thresholds in the Swedish heat-wave warning system are valid for all parts of Sweden and if the heat-wave warning system captures a potential increase in all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. An additional aim was to investigate whether neighbourhood deprivation modifies the relationship between heat waves and mortality. Methods: From 1990 until 2014, in 14 municipalities in Sweden, we collected data on daily maximum temperatures and mortality for the five warmest months. Heat waves were defined according to the categories used in the current Swedish heat-wave warning system. Using a case-crossover approach, we investigated the association between heat waves and mortality in Sweden, as well as a modifying effect of neighbourhood deprivation. Results: On a national as well as a regional level, heat waves significantly increased both all-cause mortality and CHD mortality by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively. While neighbourhood deprivation did not seem to modify heat wave-related all-cause mortality, CHD mortality did seem to modify the risk. Conclusions: It may not be appropriate to assume that heat waves in Sweden will have the same impact in a northern setting as in a southern, or that the impact of heat waves will be the same in affluent and deprived neighbourhoods. When designing and implementing heat-wave warning systems, neighbourhood, regional and national information should be incorporated.

Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden.

Projections of temperature-related mortality rely upon exposure-response relationships using recent data. Analyzing long historical data and trends may extend knowledge of past and present impacts that may provide additional insight and improve future scenarios. We collected daily mean temperatures and daily all-cause mortality for the period 1901-2013 for Stockholm County, Sweden, and calculated the total attributable fraction of mortality due to non-optimal temperatures and quantified the contribution of cold and heat. Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased. AF on cold days remained stable over time, which may indicate that mortality during colder months may not decline as temperatures increase in the future. More research is needed to enhance estimates of burdens related to cold and heat in the future.

The effect of heat waves on mortality in susceptible groups: a cohort study of a mediterranean and a northern European City.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is projected to increase the number and intensity of extreme weather events, for example heat waves. Heat waves have adverse health effects, especially for the elderly, since chronic diseases are more frequent in that group than in the population overall. The aim of the study was to investigate mortality during heat waves in an adult population aged 50 years or over, as well as in susceptible subgroups of that population in Rome and Stockholm during the summer periods from 2000 to 2008. METHODS: We collected daily number of deaths occurring between 15th May and 15th September each year for the population above 50 as well as the susceptible subgroups. Heat wave days were defined as two or more days exceeding the city specific 95th percentile of maximum apparent temperature (MAT). The relationship between heat waves and all-cause non-accidental mortality was investigated through time series modelling, adjusting for time trends. RESULTS: The percent increase in daily mortality during heat waves as compared to normal summer days was, in the 50+ population, 22% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 18-26%) in Rome and 8% (95% CI: 3-12%) in Stockholm. Subgroup specific increase in mortality in Rome ranged from 7% (95% CI:-17-39%) among survivors of myocardial infarction to 25% in the COPD (95% CI:9-43%) and diabetes (95% CI:14-37%) subgroups. In Stockholm the range was from 10% (95% CI: 2-19%) for congestive heart failure to 33% (95% CI: 10-61%) for the psychiatric subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality during heat waves increased in both Rome and Stockholm for the 50+ population as well as in the considered subgroups. It should be evaluated if protective measures should be directed towards susceptible groups, rather than the population as a whole.

Goal Attainment Scaling for Depression: Validation of the Japanese GAS-D Tool in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder.

Purpose: Goal attainment scaling (GAS) has been proposed as a person-centric, semi-quantitative measure that assimilates achievement of individually set goals into a single standardized "goal attainment score" that can be compared at the population level. We aimed to examine the reliability and validity of the Japanese version of the GAS for depression (GAS-D) tool in assessing goal attainment in people living with major depressive disorder (MDD). Patients and Methods: This was a prespecified analysis of a prospective, 24-week, multicenter, observational cohort study of employed Japanese outpatients with MDD initiating treatment with vortioxetine according to the Japanese label (JRCT1031210200). Participants were assessed using the Japanese version of the GAS-D and other clinical rating scales at baseline and Weeks 8, 12 and 24. Results: Goal attainment was significantly associated with symptom severity as assessed by the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) scale, confirming convergent validity. In particular, GAS-D scores were significantly related to MADRS total score at Weeks 12 and 24, indicating that improvements in overall symptom severity with vortioxetine treatment were likely to be reflected in the achievement of individualized treatment goals. With an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.67 (95% CI 0.45-0.82), the GAS-D also showed moderate test-retest reliability between Weeks 8 and 12 while proving independent of demographic characteristics. Conclusion: The results of this open-label study support the use of the GAS-D as a valid and sensitive outcome measure in the assessment of treatment response in MDD.

Impact of age at onset on symptom profiles, treatment characteristics and health-related quality of life in Parkinson's disease.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is typically considered an age-related disease, but the age at disease onset can vary by decades between patients. Aging and aging-associated diseases can affect the movement system independently of PD, and advanced age has previously been proposed to be associated with a more severe PD phenotype with accelerated progression. In this work, we investigated how interactions between PD progression and aging affect a wide range of outcomes related to PD motor and nonmotor symptoms as well as Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and treatment characteristics. This population-based cohort study is based on 1436 PD patients from southern Sweden followed longitudinally for up to approximately 7.5 years from enrollment (3470 visits covering 2285 patient years, average follow-up time 1.7 years). Higher age at onset was generally associated with faster progression of motor symptoms, with a notable exception of dyskinesia and other levodopa-associated motor fluctuations that had less severe trajectories for patients with higher age at onset. Mixed results were observed for emergence of non-motor symptoms, while higher age at onset was generally associated with worse HRQoL trajectories. Accounting for these identified age-associated differences in disease progression could positively impact patient management and drug development efforts.

Once after a full moon: acute type A aortic dissection and lunar phases.

OBJECTIVES: Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a rare but severe condition, routinely treated with emergent cardiac surgery. Many surgeons have the notion that patients with ATAAD tend to come in clusters, but no studies have examined these observations. This investigation was undertaken to study the potential association between the lunar cycle and the incidence of ATAAD. METHODS: We collected information on 2995 patients who underwent ATAAD surgery at centres from the Nordic Consortium for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection collaboration. We cross-referenced the time of surgery with lunar phase using a case-crossover design with 2 different definitions of full moon (>99% illumination and the 7-day full moon period). RESULTS: The period when the moon was illuminated the most (99% definition) did not show any significant increase in incidence for ATAAD surgery. However, when the full moon period was compared with all other moon phases, it yielded a relative risk of 1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.17, P = 0.057] and, compared to waxing moon, only the relative risk was 1.11 (95% CI 1.01-1.23, P = 0.027). The peak incidence came 4-6 days after the moon was fully illuminated. CONCLUSIONS: This study found an overrepresentation of surgery for ATAAD during the full moon phase. The explanation for this is not known, but we speculate that sleep deprivation during full moon leads to a temporary increase in blood pressure, which in turn could trigger rupture of the aortic wall. While this finding is interesting, it needs to be corroborated and the clinical implications are debateable.

Temperature effects on incidence of surgery for acute type A aortic dissection in the Nordics.

We aimed to investigate a hypothesised association between daily mean temperature and the risk of surgery for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). For the period of 1 January 2005 until 31 December 2019, we collected daily data on mean temperatures and date of 2995 operations for ATAAD at 10 Nordic cities included in the Nordic Consortium for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection (NORCAAD) collaboration. Using a two-stage time-series approach, we investigated the association between hot and cold temperatures relative to the optimal temperature and the rate of ATAAD repair in the selected cities. The relative risks (RRs) of cold temperatures (≤-5°C) and hot temperatures (≥21°C) compared to optimal temperature were 1.47 (95% CI: 0.72-2.99) and 1.43 (95% CI: 0.67-3.08), respectively. In line with previous studies, we observed increased risk at cold and hot temperatures. However, the observed associations were not statistically significant, thus only providing weak evidence of an association.

Impact of national holidays and weekends on incidence of acute type A aortic dissection repair.

Previous studies have demonstrated that environmental and temporal factors may affect the incidence of acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). Here, we aimed to investigate the hypothesis that national holidays and weekends influence the incidence of surgery for ATAAD. For the period 1st of January 2005 until 31st of December 2019, we investigated a hypothesised effect of (country-specific) national holidays and weekends on the frequency of 2995 surgical repairs for ATAAD at 10 Nordic cities included in the Nordic Consortium for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection (NORCAAD) collaboration. Compared to other days, the number of ATAAD repairs were 29% (RR 0.71; 95% CI 0.54-0.94) lower on national holidays and 26% (RR 0.74; 95% CI 0.68-0.82) lower on weekends. As day of week patterns of symptom duration were assessed and the primary analyses were adjusted for period of year, our findings suggest that the reduced surgical incidence on national holidays and weekends does not seem to correspond to seasonal effects or surgery being delayed and performed on regular working days.

A modelling approach to estimate the prevalence of treatment-resistant schizophrenia in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Schizophrenia is a condition that places a significant burden on individuals with the condition, their family, and society. A large proportion of those treated for schizophrenia do not experience treatment response and are referred to as having "treatment-resistant schizophrenia" (TRS). Expert opinion has long held that the prevalence of TRS among individuals with schizophrenia is 30%, but the basis of this estimate is unclear. This article presents a model developed for estimating the prevalence of TRS in the United States 2014. METHODS: An incidence-prevalence-mortality model was developed to estimate the prevalence of TRS in the United States. The model was populated with data from public health agencies and published literature. Prevalence in 2014 was modelled using a Markov cohort simulation for each birth cohort between 1930 to 2014. RESULTS: Using different scenarios for baseline incidence, relative risks of mortality, it was estimated that approximately 22% of individuals with schizophrenia would be considered treatment-resistant in 2014. DISCUSSION: The results suggests that prevalence of TRS may be somewhat lower than the 30% often reported, however this is highly dependent on the definition of treatment resistance. Methods such as this may help answer epidemiological and health policy questions as well as test the influence of key underlying assumptions.

Evaluating Mortality Response Associated with Two Different Nordic Heat Warning Systems in Riga, Latvia.

Background and objectives: Progressing climate change is accompanied by a worldwide increase in the intensity, frequency, and duration of heat wave events. Research has shown that heat waves are an emerging public health problem, as they have a significant impact on mortality. As studies exploring this relationship are scarce for Latvia, this study aims to investigate the short-term associations between heat waves and all-cause mortality as well as cause-specific mortality, during the summer months (May-September) in Riga. Materials and Methods: An ecological time series study using daily reported mortality and temperature data from Riga between 2009 and 2015 was employed. Heat waves were defined based on the categories of the Latvian and Swedish heat warning system. Using a Quasi-Poisson regression, the relationships between heat waves and all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality were investigated. Results: Heat waves in Riga were associated with a 10% to 20% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality, depending on the applied heat wave definition, compared to days with normal temperature. In addition, heat-related mortality was found to increase significantly in the ≥65 age group between 12% and 22% during heat waves. In terms of cause-specific mortality, a significant increase of approximately 15% to 26% was observed for cardiovascular mortality. No significant associations were found between heat waves and respiratory or external causes of mortality. Conclusion: These results indicate that there are short-term associations between heat waves and all-cause as well as cardiovascular mortality in Riga and that heat waves therefore represent a public health problem in this Baltic city.

Ambient Temperature and Associations with Daily Visits to a Psychiatric Emergency Unit in Sweden.

High or low ambient temperatures pose a risk factor for the worsening or onset of psychiatric disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between ambient temperature and psychiatric emergency visits in an urban region in a temperate climate. The daily number of visits to a psychiatric emergency room (PEVs) at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden and the daily mean temperature were extracted for the study period 1 July 2012 to 31 December 2017. Case-crossover analysis with distributed lag non-linear models was used to analyse the data by season. The warm season was defined as May to August and the cold season as November to February. Shorter lags periods were used for the warm season than the cold season. In the analysis, temperatures at the 95th percentile was associated with 14% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2%, 28%) increase in PEVs at lag 0⁻3 and 22% (95%CI: 6%, 40%) for lags 0⁻14 during the warm season, relative to the seasonal minimum effect temperature (MET). During the cold season temperatures at the 5th percentile were associated with 25% (95% CI: -8%, 13%) and 18% (95% CI: -30%, 98%) increase in PEVs at lags 0⁻14 and 0⁻21 respectively. We observed an increased number of PEVs at high and low temperatures; however, not to a statistically significant extent for low temperatures. Our findings are similar to what has been found for somatic diseases and in studies of other mental health outcomes in regions with more extreme climates. This merits the inclusion of individuals with psychiatric disorders in awareness planning for climate warning systems.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution as a Risk Factor for Dementia: No Clear Modifying Effects of APOEɛ4 in the Betula Cohort.

It is widely known that the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele imposes a higher risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recent evidence suggests that exposure to air pollution is also a risk factor for AD, and results from a few studies indicate that the effect of air pollution on cognitive function and dementia is stronger in APOEɛ4 carriers than in non-carriers. Air pollution and interaction with APOEɛ4 on AD risk thus merits further attention. We studied dementia incidence over a 15-year period from the longitudinal Betula study in Northern Sweden. As a marker for long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution, we used modelled annual mean nitrogen oxide levels at the residential address of the participants at start of follow-up. Nitrogen oxide correlate well with fine particulate air pollution levels in the study area. We had full data on air pollution, incidence of AD and vascular dementia (VaD), APOEɛ4 carrier status, and relevant confounding factors for 1,567 participants. As expected, air pollution was rather clearly associated with dementia incidence. However, there was no evidence for a modifying effect by APOEɛ4 on the association (p-value for interaction > 0.30 for both total dementia (AD+VaD) and AD). The results from this study do not imply that adverse effects of air pollution on dementia incidence is limited to, or stronger in, APOEɛ4 carriers than in the total population.

Differences in declining mortality rates due to coronary heart disease by neighbourhood deprivation.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of death in most industrialised countries, including those in Europe. The mortality rates due to coronary heart disease (CHD), one of the most serious CVD conditions, have been decreasing in most European countries during the last decades. However, whether the trends over time in CHD mortality rates differ depending on neighbourhood deprivation has rarely been investigated. METHODS: For each year of the study period, 1988-2012, in Sweden, age-standardised mortality rates were calculated for three different types of neighbourhoods, characterised by a Neighbourhood Deprivation Index. Joinpoint regression was used to investigate potential changes in age-standardised mortality rates by neighbourhood deprivation and over time. RESULTS: Over the study period, age-standardised mortality rates due to CHD were consistently the highest in the deprived neighbourhoods and the lowest in the affluent neighbourhoods. We observed a statistically significant overall decline, ranging from 67% to 59%, in the age-standardised CHD mortality rates for each level of neighbourhood deprivation. Furthermore, the decline for the affluent neighbourhoods was significantly higher compared with the decline in the deprived neighbourhoods. CONCLUSION: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates decreased significantly in Sweden between 1988 and 2012. This decline was more pronounced in the affluent neighbourhoods, which indicates that the improvements in prevention and treatment of CHD have not benefited individuals residing in deprived neighbourhoods to an equal extent. Knowledge of time trends in CHD mortality by level of neighbourhood deprivation may help guide decision-makers in the development of appropriate healthcare policies for deprived neighbourhoods.

Estimated Effect of Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Regions.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have reported a strong association between temperature and mortality. Additional insights can be gained from investigating the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL), considering the life expectancy at the time of death. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this work was to assess the association between temperature and YLL at seven low-, middle-, and high-income sites. METHODS: We obtained meteorological and population data for at least nine years from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites in Kenya (western Kenya, Nairobi), Burkina Faso (Nouna), and India (Vadu), as well as data from cities in the United States (Philadelphia, Phoenix) and Sweden (Stockholm). A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the association of daily maximum temperature and daily YLL, lagged 0-14 d. The reference value was set for each site at the temperature with the lowest YLL. RESULTS: Generally, YLL increased with higher temperature, starting day 0. In Nouna, the hottest location, with a minimum YLL temperature at the first percentile, YLL increased consistently with higher temperatures. In Vadu, YLL increased in association with heat, whereas in Nairobi, YLL increased in association with both low and high temperatures. Associations with cold and heat were evident for Phoenix (stronger for heat), Stockholm, and Philadelphia (both stronger for cold). Patterns of associations with mortality were generally similar to those with YLL. CONCLUSIONS: Both high and low temperatures are associated with YLL in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Policy guidance and health adaptation measures might be improved with more comprehensive indicators of the health burden of high and low temperatures such as YLL. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1745.

Air Pollution and Dispensed Medications for Asthma, and Possible Effect Modifiers Related to Mental Health and Socio-Economy: A Longitudinal Cohort Study of Swedish Children and Adolescents.

It has been suggested that children that are exposed to a stressful environment at home have an increased susceptibility for air pollution-related asthma. The aim here was to investigate the association between air pollution exposure and asthma, and effect modification by mental health and by socio-economic status (as markers of a stressful environment). All individuals under 18 years of age in four Swedish counties during 2007 to 2010 (1.2 million people) were included. The outcome was defined as dispensing at least two asthma medications during follow up. We linked data on NO2 from an empirical land use regression to data from national registers on outcome and potential confounders. Data was analyzed with logistic regression. There was an odds ratio (OR) of 1.02 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.01-1.03) for asthma associated with a 10 µg·m-3 increase in NO2. The association only seemed to be present in areas where NO2 was higher than 15 µg·m-3 with an OR of 1.09 (95% CI: 1.07-1.12), and the association seemed stronger in children with parents with a high education, OR = 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.09) and OR = 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.07) in children to mothers and father with a high education, respectively. The association did not seem to depend on medication history of psychiatric disorders. There was weak evidence for the association between air pollution and asthma to be stronger in neighborhoods with higher education levels. In conclusion, air pollution was associated with dispensed asthma medications, especially in areas with comparatively higher levels of air pollution, and in children to parents with high education. We did not observe support for our hypothesis that stressors linked to socio-economy or mental health problems would increase susceptibility to the effects of air pollution on the development of asthma.

Is Long-term Exposure to Air Pollution Associated with Episodic Memory? A Longitudinal Study from Northern Sweden.

Associations between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and cognitive function have been observed in a few longitudinal studies. Our aim was to investigate the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and episodic memory, a marker of early cognitive decline. We used data from the Betula study in Northern Sweden, and included participants 60 to 85 of age at inclusion, 1,469 persons in total. The participants were followed for up to 22 years, five years apart between 1988 and 2010. A composite of five tasks was used as a measure of episodic memory measure (EMM), and the five-year change in EMM score (ΔEMM) was calculated such that a participant could contribute with up to four measurement pairs. A Land Use Regression Model was used to estimate cumulative annual mean of NOx at the residential address of the participants (a marker for long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution). There did not seem to be any association between exposure to traffic air pollution and episodic memory change, with a ΔEMM estimate of per 1 µg/m3 increase in NOx of 0.01 (95% Confidence Interval: -0.02,0.03). This is in contrast to a growing body of evidence suggesting associations between air pollution and cognitive function.

Short-Term Associations between Air Pollution Concentrations and Respiratory Health-Comparing Primary Health Care Visits, Hospital Admissions, and Emergency Department Visits in a Multi-Municipality Study.

Acute effects of air pollution on respiratory health have traditionally been investigated with data on inpatient admissions, emergency room visits, and mortality. In this study, we aim to describe the total acute effects of air pollution on health care use for respiratory symptoms (ICD10-J00-J99). This will be done by investigating primary health care (PHC) visits, inpatient admissions, and emergency room visits together in five municipalities in southern Sweden, using a case-crossover design. Between 2005 and 2010, there were 81,019 visits to primary health care, 38,217 emergency room visits, and 25,271 inpatient admissions for respiratory symptoms in the study area. There was a 1.85% increase (95% CI: 0.52 to 3.20) in the number of primary health care visits associated with a 10 µg/m³ increase in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in Malmö, but not in the other municipalities. Air pollution levels were generally not associated with emergency room visits or inpatient admissions, with one exception (in Helsingborg there was a 2.52% increase in emergency room visits for respiratory symptoms associated with a 10 µg/m³ increase in PM10). In conclusion, the results give weak support for short-term effects of air pollution on health care use associated with respiratory health symptoms in the study area.

High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia.

BACKGROUND: On-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme weather events-such as heat waves-throughout Europe. The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality, but studies from an Estonian setting are almost entirely missing. We investigated mortality in relation to high summer temperatures and the time course of mortality in a coastal and inland region of Estonia. METHODS: We collected daily mortality data and daily maximum temperature for a coastal and an inland region of Estonia. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model to investigate heat related mortality and the time course of mortality in Estonia. RESULTS: We found an immediate increase in mortality associated with temperatures exceeding the 75th percentile of summer maximum temperatures, corresponding to approximately 23°C. This increase lasted for a couple of days in both regions. The total effect of elevated temperatures was not lessened by significant mortality displacement. DISCUSSION: We observed significantly increased mortality in Estonia, both on a country level as well as for a coastal region and an inland region with a more continental climate. Heat related mortality was higher in the inland region as compared to the coastal region, however, no statistically significant differences were observed. The lower risks in coastal areas could be due to lower maximum temperatures and cooling effects of the sea, but also better socioeconomic condition. Our results suggest that region specific estimates of the impacts of temperature extremes on mortality are needed.