Analysis of health effects resulting from population exposures to acid precipitation precursors.

Types of available studies relevant to the quantification of air pollution health effects and their principal limitations are discussed. Assessments are provided based on review and re-analysis of previously reported data bases, synthesis of published findings, and original analysis of health data sets using new methods or recent size-specific particle mass measurements. Interim results from ongoing research activities on airborne particle health effects are presented. It is shown that preliminary results obtained from cross-sectional and time-series mortality studies appear to be consistent, indicating that particulate air pollution, even at current levels, could be of concern for public health. Throughout the paper, methodological deficiencies and remaining gaps in knowledge are identified. In particular, uncertainties associated with the reported exposure-response coefficients are assessed. Finally, by characterizing the limitations of analysis we propose various recommendations for future studies and research that will serve to further define the nature, magnitude, and uncertainties of air pollution health risks.

The Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study: assessing ozone exposure of grade-school-age children in two Southern California communities.

The Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study measured personal exposure to, and indoor and outdoor ozone concentrations of, approximately 200 elementary school children 6-12 years of age for 12 months (June 1995-May 1996). We selected two Southern California communities, Upland and several towns located in the San Bernardino mountains, because certain characteristics of those communities were believed to affect personal exposures. On 6 consecutive days during each study month, participant homes were monitored for indoor and outdoor ozone concentrations, and participating children wore a small passive ozone sampler to measure personal exposure. During each sampling period, the children recorded time-location-activity information in a diary. Ambient ozone concentration data were obtained from air quality monitoring stations in the study areas. We present ozone concentration data for the ozone season (June-September 1995 and May 1996) and the nonozone season (October 1995-April 1996). During the ozone season, outdoor and indoor concentrations and personal exposure averaged 48.2, 11.8, and 18.8 ppb in Upland and 60.1, 21.4, and 25.4 ppb in the mountain towns, respectively. During the nonozone season, outdoor and indoor concentrations and personal exposure averaged 21.1, 3.2, and 6.2 ppb in Upland, and 35.7, 2.8, and 5.7 ppb in the mountain towns, respectively. Personal exposure differed by community and sex, but not by age group.

Dietary exposures to selected metals and pesticides.

Average daily dietary exposures to 11 contaminants were estimated for approximately 120,000 U.S. adults by combining data on annual diet, as measured by a food frequency questionnaire, with contaminant residue data for table-ready foods that were collected as part of the annual U.S. Food and Drug Administration Total Diet Study. The contaminants included in the analysis were four heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury), three organophosphate pesticides (chlorpyrifos, diazinon, malathion), and four organochlorine pesticides (dieldrin, p,p'-DDE, lindane, heptachlor epoxide). Dietary exposures to these contaminants were highly variable among individuals, spanning two to three orders of magnitude. Intraindividual exposures to the metals, organophosphates, and organochlorines were estimated to be strongly correlated; Pearson's correlation coefficients ranged from 0.28 for lindane:dieldrin to 0.84 for lead:mercury. For some of the compounds (e.g., arsenic and dieldrin), a substantial fraction of the population was estimated to have dietary intakes in excess of health-based standards established by the EPA. Before use for risk assessment or epidemiologic purposes, however, the validity of the exposure estimates must be evaluated by comparison with biological indicators of chronic exposure. Because of their low detection rate in table-ready foods, the estimated distributions of exposures for dieldrin, p,p'-DDE, heptachlor epoxide, lindane, diazinon, and chlorpyrifos were found to be sensitive to assumed values for nondetect samples. Reliable estimates of the population distribution of dietary exposures to most other contaminants cannot be made currently, due to their low rate of detection in table-ready foods. Monitoring programs that use more sensitive study designs and population-based assessments for other subpopulations should be a priority for future research.

Particulate air pollution and respiratory disease in Anchorage, Alaska.

This paper examines the associations between average daily particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter (PM10) and temperature with daily outpatient visits for respiratory disease including asthma, bronchitis, and upper respiratory illness in Anchorage, Alaska, where there are few industrial sources of air pollution. In Anchorage, PM10 is composed primarily of earth crustal material and volcanic ash. Carbon monoxide is measured only during the winter months. The number of outpatients visits for respiratory diagnoses during the period 1 May 1992 to 1 March 1994 were derived from medical insurance claims for state and municipal employees and their dependents covered by Aetna insurance. The data were filtered to reduce seasonal trends and serial autocorrelation and adjusted for day of the week. The results show that an increase of 10 micrograms/m3 in PM10 resulted in a 3-6% increase in visits for asthma and a 1-3% increase in visits for upper respiratory diseases. Winter CO concentrations were significantly associated with bronchitis and upper respiratory illness, but not with asthma. Winter CO was highly correlated with automobile exhaust emissions. These findings are consistent with the results of previous studies of particulate pollution in other urban areas and provide evidence that the coarse fraction of PM10 may affect the health of working people.

Use of health information systems in the Russian federation in the assessment of environmental health effects.

The Russian Federation has made an intensive effort to compile and use information on the environment and human health. In 1996-1997, we evaluated the information that was collected and analyzed on the local (raion), regional (oblast), and federal levels with reference to its usefulness in the assessment of environmental health effects. The Russian Federation maintains standardized nationwide institutions that routinely collect health data in polyclinics and hospitals and then report to the national offices. The allocations of the workforce and the broad range of surveyed health outcomes are extensive, but a lack of systematic control of information quality limits the ability to take full advantage of these efforts. On the other hand, the hierarchical system of data collection has advantages over more decentralized or commercial health systems. A major weakness in the current reporting is the aggregation and transformation of data. Although this may not disturb the generation of health statistics, it seriously limits the use of regional and federal level data in the assessment of health effects of environmental exposures. In spite of limitations, some revised approaches to the analysis of existing data may be both feasible and fruitful. Combining information from routine data and newly collected data is likely to be the most effective way to assess the relationship between environmental exposures and diseases. Although there is a strong and justifiable desire to rapidly translate information of environmental health effects into policy alternatives, at present, it seems more useful to emphasize data quality, completeness, and plans for the use of data.

A modeling framework for estimating children's residential exposure and dose to chlorpyrifos via dermal residue contact and nondietary ingestion.

To help address the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996, a physically based probabilistic model has been developed to quantify and analyze dermal and nondietary ingestion exposure and dose to pesticides. The Residential Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Pesticides (Residential-SHEDS) simulates the exposures and doses of children contacting residues on surfaces in treated residences and on turf in treated residential yards. The simulations combine sequential time-location-activity information from children's diaries with microlevel videotaped activity data, probability distributions of measured surface residues and exposure factors, and pharmacokinetic rate constants. Model outputs include individual profiles and population statistics for daily dermal loading, mass in the blood compartment, ingested residue via nondietary objects, and mass of eliminated metabolite, as well as contributions from various routes, pathways, and media. To illustrate the capabilities of the model framework, we applied Residential-SHEDS to estimate children's residential exposure and dose to chlorpyrifos for 12 exposure scenarios: 2 age groups (0-4 and 5-9 years); 2 indoor pesticide application methods (broadcast and crack and crevice); and 3 postindoor application time periods (< 1, 1-7, and 8-30 days). Independent residential turf applications (liquid or granular) were included in each of these scenarios. Despite the current data limitations and model assumptions, the case study predicts exposure and dose estimates that compare well to measurements in the published literature, and provides insights to the relative importance of exposure scenarios and pathways.

A population exposure model for particulate matter: case study results for PM(2.5) in Philadelphia, PA.

A population exposure model for particulate matter (PM), called the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS-PM) model, has been developed and applied in a case study of daily PM(2.5) exposures for the population living in Philadelphia, PA. SHEDS-PM is a probabilistic model that estimates the population distribution of total PM exposures by randomly sampling from various input distributions. A mass balance equation is used to calculate indoor PM concentrations for the residential microenvironment from ambient outdoor PM concentrations and physical factor data (e.g., air exchange, penetration, deposition), as well as emission strengths for indoor PM sources (e.g., smoking, cooking). PM concentrations in nonresidential microenvironments are calculated using equations developed from regression analysis of available indoor and outdoor measurement data for vehicles, offices, schools, stores, and restaurants/bars. Additional model inputs include demographic data for the population being modeled and human activity pattern data from EPA's Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD). Model outputs include distributions of daily total PM exposures in various microenvironments (indoors, in vehicles, outdoors), and the contribution from PM of ambient origin to daily total PM exposures in these microenvironments. SHEDS-PM has been applied to the population of Philadelphia using spatially and temporally interpolated ambient PM(2.5) measurements from 1992-1993 and 1990 US Census data for each census tract in Philadelphia. The resulting distributions showed substantial variability in daily total PM(2.5) exposures for the population of Philadelphia (median=20 microg/m(3); 90th percentile=59 microg/m(3)). Variability in human activities, and the presence of indoor-residential sources in particular, contributed to the observed variability in total PM(2.5) exposures. The uncertainty in the estimated population distribution for total PM(2.5) exposures was highest at the upper end of the distribution and revealed the importance of including estimates of input uncertainty in population exposure models. The distributions of daily microenvironmental PM(2.5) exposures (exposures due to time spent in various microenvironments) indicated that indoor-residential PM(2.5) exposures (median=13 microg/m(3)) had the greatest influence on total PM(2.5) exposures compared to the other microenvironments. The distribution of daily exposures to PM(2.5) of ambient origin was less variable across the population than the distribution of daily total PM(2.5) exposures (median=7 microg/m(3); 90th percentile=18 microg/m(3)) and similar to the distribution of ambient outdoor PM(2.5) concentrations. This result suggests that human activity patterns did not have as strong an influence on ambient PM(2.5) exposures as was observed for exposure to other PM(2.5) sources. For most of the simulated population, exposure to PM(2.5) of ambient origin contributed a significant percent of the daily total PM(2.5) exposures (median=37.5%), especially for the segment of the population without exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in the residence (median=46.4%). Development of the SHEDS-PM model using the Philadelphia PM(2.5) case study also provided useful insights into the limitations of currently available data for use in population exposure models. In addition, data needs for improving inputs to the SHEDS-PM model, reducing uncertainty and further refinement of the model structure, were identified.

A population-based exposure model for benzene.

A model of daily-average inhalation exposures and total-absorbed doses of benzene to members of large populations was developed as part of a series of multimedia exposure and absorbed dose models. The benzene exposure and dose model is based upon probabilistic rather than sequential simulation of time-activity patterns, a simpler approach to modeling personal benzene exposures than other existing models. An important innovation of the benzene model is the incorporation of an anthropometric module for generating correlated exposure factors used to estimate absorbed doses occurring from inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption of benzene. A preliminary validation exercise indicates that the benzene model produces reasonable estimates of the distribution of benzene personal air concentrations expected for a large population. Uncertainty about specific percentiles of the predicted distributions of personal air concentrations was found to be dominated by uncertainty about microenvironmental benzene concentrations rather than time-activity patterns, and uncertainty about total absorbed doses was dominated by a lack of knowledge about the true absorption coefficient for benzene in the lung rather than knowledge gaps about microenvironmental concentrations or intake rates. The results of this modeling effort have implications for environmental control decisions, including evaluation of source control options, characterization of population and individual risk, and allocation of resources for future studies.

Intercommunity differences in acid aerosol (H+)/sulfate (SO4(2-) ratios.

Exposures to acid aerosols have been associated with acute and chronic health effects. Beginning in 1988, extensive monitoring of acid aerosols (H+), sulfates (SO4(2-)), and ammonia (NH3) was conducted in 24 communities in the United States and Canada in order to characterize the seasonal and daily variations of these pollutants. More recently, in 1992 and 1993, summer monitoring of the same pollutants was conducted by Harvard researchers at multiple locations in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to examine the factors causing spatial variation in the acidity levels in the greater metropolitan Philadelphia area. Earlier, a similar study also was conducted by Harvard in a more rural community, State College, Ohio, providing data on acidity, sulfate, and ammonia levels. In addition to these studies, New York University researchers have gathered substantial data on aerosol acidity, sulfates, and NH3 levels from sites in the New York City metropolitan region, Albany, Buffalo, and the Toronto metropolitan region between 1988 and 1992. This paper examines the relationships among H+, SO4(2-), ozone, and population density using summer measurements from sites in 24 cities across the United States and Canada, as well as Philadelphia, State College, the New York City region, Buffalo, and Albany. While past studies have consistently shown that H+ and SO4(2-) are correlated over time at sites in eastern North America, the results of our analysis show that spatial variations in the ratios of mean acid-to-sulfate levels also can be predicted satisfactorily with the use of either a linear or a quadratic model, once variations in population density are addressed (R2 = 0.6). These models may be useful in retrospective epidemiological investigations of acid aerosol exposures and health effects, using widely available sulfate measurements and data on local population size.

Personal exposure to airborne particles and metals: results from the Particle TEAM study in Riverside, California.

The PTEAM Study was the first large-scale probability-based study of personal exposure to particles. Sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Air Resources Board of California, it was carried out by the Research Triangle Institute (RTI) and the Harvard University School of Public Health (HSPH). HSPH designed and constructed a 4-lpm, battery-operated personal monitor for inhalable particles (PM10) that could be worn comfortably for up to 14 hours by persons from 10 to 70 years old. The monitor was worn for two consecutive 12-hour periods (day and night) during the fall of 1990 by 178 participants representing 139,000 nonsmoking residents of Riverside, California. Nearly identical monitors were employed to collect concurrent indoor and outdoor samples. The monitors were equipped with a different sampling nozzle to collect fine particles (PM2.5). Population-weighted daytime personal PM10 exposures averaged 150 +/- 9 (SE) micrograms/m3, compared to concurrent indoor and outdoor concentrations of 95 +/- 6 micrograms/m3. This suggested the existence of excess mass near the person, a "personal cloud" that appeared related to personal activities. Fourteen of 15 prevalent elements also were evaluated in the personal samples. The two major indoor sources of indoor particles were smoking and cooking; even in these homes, however, more than half of the indoor particles came from outdoors, and a substantial portion of the indoor particles were of undetermined indoor origin. Outdoor concentrations near the homes were well correlated with outdoor concentrations at the central site, supporting the idea of using the central site as an indicator of of ambient concentrations over a wider area. Indoor concentrations were only weakly correlated with outdoor concentrations, however, and personal exposures were even more poorly correlated with outdoor concentrations. Elemental profiles were obtained for environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) (major contributions from potassium and chlorine) and cooking emissions (aluminum, iron, calcium, and chlorine). These profiles can be used in future source apportionment studies.

Measurement of air exchange rate of stationary vehicles and estimation of in-vehicle exposure.

The air exchange rates or air changes per hour (ACH) were measured under 4 conditions in 3 stationary automobiles. The ACH ranged between 1.0 and 3.0 h-1 with windows closed and no mechanical ventilation, between 1.8 and 3.7 h-1 for windows closed with fan set on recirculation, between 13.3 and 26.1 h-1 for window open with no mechanical ventilation, and between 36.2 and 47.5 h-1 for window closed with the fan set on fresh air. ACHs for windows closed with no ventilation were higher for the older automobile than for the newer automobiles. With the windows closed and fan turned off, ACH was not influenced by wind speed (p > 0.05). When the window was open, ACH appeared to be greatly affected by wind speed (R2 = 0.86). These measurements are relevant to understanding exposures inside automobiles to sources such as dry-cleaned clothes, cigarettes and airbags. Therefore, to understand the in-vehicle exposure to these internal sources, perchloroethylene (PCE) emitted from dry-cleaned clothes and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) inside a vehicle were modeled for simulated driving cycles. Airbag deployment was also modeled for estimating exposure level to alkaline particulate and carbon monoxide (CO). Average exposure to PCE inside a vehicle for 30 minutes period was high (approximately 780 micrograms/m3); however, this is only 6% of the two-week exposure that is influenced by the storage of dry cleaned clothing at home. On the other hand, the exposure levels of respirable suspended particulate (RSP) and formaldehyde due to ETS could reach 2.1 mg/m3 and 0.11 ppm, respectively, when a person smokes inside a driving car even with the window open. In modeling the in-vehicle concentrations following airbag deployment, the average CO level over 20 minutes would not appear to present problem (less than 28 ppm). The peak concentration of respirable particulate would have exceeded 140 mg/m3. Since most of the particle mass is composed of alkaline material, these high levels might be expected to cause harmful effects on susceptible people, such as asthmatics. In all modeled cases, ACH would significantly affect build-up and dilution of pollutants originating from internal sources. Frequent stopping in congested urban traffic can greatly increase short-term exposures.

Modeled estimates of chlorpyrifos exposure and dose for the Minnesota and Arizona NHEXAS populations.

This paper presents a probabilistic, multimedia, multipathway exposure model and assessment for chlorpyrifos developed as part of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS). The model was constructed using available information prior to completion of the NHEXAS study. It simulates the distribution of daily aggregate and pathway-specific chlorpyrifos absorbed dose in the general population of the State of Arizona (AZ) and in children aged 3-12 years residing in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota (MSP). Pathways included were inhalation of indoor and outdoor air, dietary ingestion, non-dietary ingestion of dust and soil, and dermal contact with dust and soil. Probability distributions for model input parameters were derived from the available literature, and input values were chosen to represent chlorpyrifos concentrations and demographics in AZ and MSP to the extent possible. When the NHEXAS AZ and MSP data become available, they can be compared to the distributions derived in this and other prototype modeling assessments to test the adequacy of this pre-NHEXAS model assessment. Although pathway-specific absorbed dose estimates differed between AZ and MSP due to differences in model inputs between simulated adults and children, the aggregate model results and general findings for simulated AZ and MSP populations were similar. The major route of chlorpyrifos intake was food ingestion, followed by indoor air inhalation. Two-stage Monte Carlo simulation was used to derive estimates of both inter-individual variability and uncertainty in the estimated distributions. The variability in the model results reflects the difference in activity patterns, exposure factors, and concentrations contacted by individuals during their daily activities. Based on the coefficient of variation, indoor air inhalation and dust ingestion were most variable relative to the mean, primarily because of variability in concentrations due to use or no-use of pesticides. Uncertainty analyses indicated a factor of 10-30 for uncertainty of model predictions of 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles. The greatest source of uncertainty in the model stems from the definition of no household pesticide use as no use in the past year. Because chlorpyrifos persists in the residential environment for longer than a year, the modeled estimates are likely to be low. More information on pesticide usage and environmental concentrations measured at different post-application times is needed to refine and evaluate this and other pesticide exposure models.

Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (PTEAM) 1990 study: method performance and data quality for personal, indoor, and outdoor monitoring.

The Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (PTEAM) study provided the opportunity to test methodologies for measuring personal and microenvironmental PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in a full-scale probability-based sample of 178 persons and homes in Riverside, California during the fall of 1990. The purpose of the study was to estimate frequency distributions of exposure to PM10, PM2.5, and selected elements in an urban population. Quality control samples and analyses were used to evaluate method performance. These included collocated sample collection, field and lab blank filters, sampler and balance field audits, and intra- and interlaboratory replicate elemental analyses. A portion of the study was also designed to include side-by-side operation of the personal and microenvironmental samplers with reference method (high-volume and dichotomous) samplers to provide an evaluation of method comparability. Over 95% of the approximately 2,900 scheduled samples were collected and analyzed, with very few losses due to equipment failure. The method limit of detection for the personal and microenvironmental monitor PM10 sampling was 8 micrograms/m3. Mean relative standard deviations (RSDs) of 2% to 8% were obtained for collocated personal and microenvironmental samples. Sampler flow rates were within the +/- 10% accuracy criterion during two field audits. Balances operated in a specially designed mobile laboratory were within specified tolerances for precision (+/- 4 micrograms) and accuracy (+/- 50 micrograms). Elemental analysis accuracy was measured with standard reference materials with biases ranging from 2% to 7%. Measurement precision for most elements ranged from 2.5% to 25% mean RSD. Personal and microenvironmental samplers gave median PM10 concentrations that were approximately 9% higher than the dichotomous sampler and 16% higher than the high-volume sampler across 96 monitoring periods at a fixed outdoor location.

Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (PTEAM) study: distributions of aerosol and elemental concentrations in personal, indoor, and outdoor air samples in a southern California community.

Particle concentrations were measured for a probability-based sample of 178 nonsmoking individuals aged 10 or older residing in Riverside, California, in the fall of 1990. Two 12-hr personal-exposure PM10 samples were obtained for each participant, along with fixed-location PM10 and PM2.5 indoor and outdoor air samples at their residences. The particle samples were also analyzed via X-ray fluorescence (XRF) to determine elemental concentrations for selected elements, including some toxic metals, crustal elements, and combustion- and industrial-source related elements. About 25% of the target population was estimated to have 24-hr personal exposures to PM10 that exceeded the national ambient air concentration standard of 150 micrograms/m3. The daytime personal exposure levels (median of 130 micrograms/m3) tended to exceed both indoor and outdoor levels by about 50%; nighttime personal exposure levels were lower and were only slightly higher than nighttime indoor levels. Several possible reasons for the elevated daytime personal PM10 levels (relative to indoor levels) are considered. Certain activities such as house cleaning and smoking were found to be associated with elevated personal exposure levels.

Ozone decay rates in residences.

In urban and suburban settings, indoor ozone exposures can represent a significant fraction of an individual's total exposure. The decay rate, one of the factors determining indoor ozone concentrations, is inadequately understood in residences. Decay rates were calculated by introducing outdoor air containing 80-160 parts per billion ozone into 43 residences and monitoring the reduction in indoor concentration as a function of time. The mean decay rate measured in the living rooms of 43 Southern California homes was 2.80 +/- 1.30 hr-1, with an average ozone deposition velocity of 0.049 +/- 0.017 cm/sec. The experimental protocol was evaluated for precision by repeating measurements in one residence on five different days, collecting 44 same-day replicate measurements, and by simultaneous measurements at two locations in six homes. Measured decay rates were significantly correlated with house type and the number of bedrooms. The observed decay rates were higher in multiple-family homes and homes with fewer than three bedrooms. Homes with higher surface-area-to-volume ratios had higher decay rates. The ratio of indoor-to-outdoor ozone concentrations in homes not using air conditioning and open windows was 68 +/- 18%, while the ratio of indoor-to-outdoor ozone was less than 10% for the homes with air conditioning in use.

The association between ambient carbon monoxide levels and daily mortality in Toronto, Canada.

The role of ambient levels of carbon monoxide (CO) in the exacerbation of heart problems in individuals with both cardiac and other diseases was examined by comparing daily variations in CO levels and daily fluctuations in nonaccidental mortality in metropolitan Toronto for the 15-year period 1980-1994. After adjusting the mortality time series for day-of-the-week effects, nonparametic smoothed functions of day of study and weather variables, statistically significant positive associations were observed between daily fluctuations in mortality and ambient levels of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, coefficient of haze, total suspended particulate matter, sulfates, and estimated PM2.5 and PM10. However, the effects of this complex mixture of air pollutants could be almost completely explained by the levels of CO and total suspended particulates (TSP). Of the 40 daily nonaccidental deaths in metropolitan Toronto, 4.7% (95% confidence interval of 3.4%-6.1%) could be attributable to CO while TSP contributed an additional 1.0% (95% confidence interval of 0.2-1.9%), based on changes in CO and TSP equivalent to their average concentrations. Statistically significant positive associations were observed between CO and mortality in all seasons, age, and disease groupings examined. Carbon monoxide should be considered as a potential public health risk to urban populations at current ambient exposure levels.

Role of exposure databases in risk assessment.

Risk assessments have assumed an increasingly important role in the management of risks in this country. The determination of which pollutants or public health issues are to be regulated, the degree and extent of regulation, and the priority assigned to particular problems are all areas of risk assessment that influence the country's $100 billion annual investment in environmental protection. Recent trends in public policy have brought the practice of risk assessment under greater scrutiny. As policy makers increasingly insist that specific numerical risk levels (so-called bright lines) be incorporated into regulatory decisions, the stakes for good risk assessment practice, already high, are raised even further. Enhancing the scientific basis of risk assessments was a major goal of the Workshop on Exposure Databases. In this article, we present the Risk Assessment Work Group's evaluation of the use of exposurerelated databases in risk assessment and the group's recommendations for improvement. The work group's discussion focused on the availability, suitability, and quality of data that underly exposure assessments, a critical component of risk assessment. The work group established a framework for evaluation, based on exposure scenarios typically used in regulatory decisions. The scenarios included examples from Superfund, the Clean Air Act, the Toxic Substances Control Act, and other regulatory programs. These scenarios were used to illustrate current use of exposure data, to highlight gaps in existing data sources, and to discuss how improved exposure information can improve risk assessments. The work group concluded that many of the databases available are designed for purposes that do not meet exposure and risk assessment needs. Substantial gaps exist in measurements of actual human exposure and in the data necessary to model exposures, to characterize distributions of exposure, to identify high-risk groups, and to identify possible environmental inequities in exposure. The work group, on the basis of its findings, made both short-term and longer-term recommendations for improving the collection of exposure data in the future.

Associations of daily mortality and air pollution in Los Angeles County.

We report results of a multiple regression analysis examining associations between aggregate daily mortality counts and environmental variables in Los Angeles County, California for the period 1970 to 1979. Mortality variable included total deaths not due to accidents and violence (M), deaths due to cardiovascular causes (CV), and deaths due to respiratory causes (Resp). The environmental variables included five pollutants averaged over Los Angeles County--total oxidants (Ox), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and KM (a measure of particulate optical reflectance). Also included were three metereological variables measured at the Los Angeles International Airport--temperature (Temp), relative humidity (RH), and extinction coefficient (Bext), the latter estimated from noontime visual range. To reduce the possibility of spurious correlations arising from the shared seasonal cycles of mortality and environmental variables, seasonal cycles were removed from the data by applying a high-pass filter. Cross-correlation functions were examined to determine the lag structure of the data prior to specifying and fitting the multiple regression models relating mortality and the environmental variables. The results demonstrated significant associations of M (or CV) with Ox at lag 1, temperature, and NO2, CO, or KM. Each of the latter three variables were strongly associated with daily mortality but also were highly correlated with one another in the high-frequency band, making it impossible to uniquely estimate their separate relationships to mortality. The results of this study show that small but significant associations exist in Los Angeles County between daily mortality and three separate environmental factors: temperature, primary motor vehicle-related pollutants (e.g., CO, KM, NO2), and photochemical oxidants.

Associations between 1980 U.S. mortality rates and alternative measures of airborne particle concentration.

We analyzed the 1980 U.S. vital statistics and available ambient air pollution data bases for sulfates and fine, inhalable, and total suspended particles. Using multiple regression analyses, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the association between various particle measures and total mortality. Results from the various analyses indicated the importance of considering particle size, composition, and source information in modeling of particle pollution health effects. Of the independent mortality predictors considered, particle exposure measures related to the respirable and/or toxic fraction of the aerosols, such as fine particles and sulfates, were most consistently and significantly associated with the reported SMSA-specific total annual mortality rates. On the other hand, particle mass measures that included coarse particles (e.g., total suspended particles and inhalable particles) were often found to be nonsignificant predictors of total mortality. Furthermore, based on the application of fine particle source apportionment, particles from industrial sources (e.g., from iron/steel emissions) and from coal combustion were suggested to be more significant contributors to human mortality than soil-derived particles.